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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,783 records · Page 99
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2013

Waste handling and storage in the decontamination pilot projects of JAEA for environments of Fukushima

After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident, Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) was chosen by the national government to conduct decontamination pilot projects at selected sites in Fukushima prefecture. Despite tight boundary conditions in terms of timescale and resources, the projects served their primary purpose to develop a knowledge base to support more effective planning and implementation of stepwise regional remediation of the evacuated zone. A range of established, modified and newly developed techniques were tested under realistic field conditions and their performance characteristics were determined. The results of the project can be summarized in terms of site characterization, cleanup and waste management. A range of options were investigated to reduce the volumes of waste produced and to ensure that decontamination water could be cleaned to the extent that it could be discharged to normal drainage. Resultant solid wastes were packaged in standard flexible containers, labelled and stored at the remediation site (temporary storage until central interim storage becomes available). The designs of such temporary storage facilities were tailored to available sites, but all designs included measures to ensure mechanical stability (e.g., filling void spaces between containers with sand, graded cover with soil) and prevent releases to groundwater (impermeable base and cap, gravity flow drainage including radiation monitors and catch tanks). Storage site monitoring was also needed to check that storage structures would not be perturbed by external events that could include typhoons, heavy snowfalls, freeze/thaw cycles and earthquakes. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

TRANSIENT THERMAL MODELING OF THE HIGH BURNUP DEMONSTRATION RESEARCH PROJECT CASK USING STAR-CCM+ AND COBRA-SFS

The Department of Energy in collaboration with the Electric Power Research Institute is in the process of conducting the High Burnup Demonstration Project. Where the objective is to characterize the performance of high-burnup fuel in long term storage. As part of this demonstration, a TN-32B dry storage cask was instrumented and loaded with spent nuclear fuel at North Anna Nuclear Generating Station in November 2017. The project cask provides a unique opportunity to gain information on spent fuel and cask performance from an in-service operational system. The cask was instrumented with thermocouples inside of the fuel assemblies, then loaded and dried using normal procedures. After the drying process a thermal soak period where the cask was left indoors was used to obtain steady temperatures for model comparison along with surface temperatures. This paper details thermal modeling validation work that was done to model both the steady state and transient cases. Two modeling tools were used to predict temperatures in the cask. The general purpose CFD and heat transfer code STAR-CCM+ was used with both a detailed pin-by-pin model was used along with a more efficient k-effective simplification. The other code is COBRA-SFS, a purpose-built detailed thermal modeling tool developed and maintained at PNNL. Results from all the modeling tools were compared blind to the test data. Each model utilized general design information and compared reasonably well to the blind steady state data using convection and surface temperature boundary conditions. Post-test adjustments were later made to better reflect the “as built” conditions of the cask. Based on lessons learned from the steady state analysis the vacuum drying process was modeled in both codes. Utilizing the measured loading conditions the transient models were able to compare very well with the measured data. Overall the project showed an ability to model spent fuel storage conditions very well and future work is planned to generalize the methodology used for vacuum drying.

Thermal Analysis, Spent Fuel, Dry Storage↗
DOE OSTI2011

A spatially encoded dose difference maximal intensity projection map for patient dose evaluation: A new first line patient quality assurance tool

Purpose: To develop a spatially encoded dose difference maximal intensity projection (DD-MIP) as an online patient dose evaluation tool for visualizing the dose differences between the planning dose and dose on the treatment day. Methods: Megavoltage cone-beam CT (MVCBCT) images acquired on the treatment day are used for generating the dose difference index. Each index is represented by different colors for underdose, acceptable, and overdose regions. A maximal intensity projection (MIP) algorithm is developed to compress all the information of an arbitrary 3D dose difference index into a 2D DD-MIP image. In such an algorithm, a distance transformation is generated based on the planning CT. Then, two new volumes representing the overdose and underdose regions of the dose difference index are encoded with the distance transformation map. The distance-encoded indices of each volume are normalized using the skin distance obtained on the planning CT. After that, two MIPs are generated based on the underdose and overdose volumes with green-to-blue and green-to-red lookup tables, respectively. Finally, the two MIPs are merged with an appropriate transparency level and rendered in planning CT images. Results: The spatially encoded DD-MIP was implemented in a dose-guided radiotherapy prototype and tested on 33 MVCBCT images from six patients. The user can easily establish the threshold for the overdose and underdose. A 3% difference between the treatment and planning dose was used as the threshold in the study; hence, the DD-MIP shows red or blue color for the dose difference >3% or {<=}3%, respectively. With such a method, the overdose and underdose regions can be visualized and distinguished without being overshadowed by superficial dose differences. Conclusions: A DD-MIP algorithm was developed that compresses information from 3D into a single or two orthogonal projections while hinting the user whether the dose difference is on the skin surface or deeper.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Localization of deformable tumors from short-arc projections using Bayesian estimation

Purpose: The authors present a stochastic framework for radiotherapy patient positioning directly utilizing radiographic projections. This framework is developed to be robust against anatomical nonrigid deformations and to cope with challenging imaging scenarios, involving only a few cone beam CT projections from short arcs. Methods: Specifically, a Bayesian estimator (BE) is explicitly derived for the given scanning geometry. This estimator is compared to reference methods such as chamfer matching (CM) and the minimization of the median absolute error adapted as tools of robust image processing and statistics. In order to show the performance of the stochastic short-arc patient positioning method, a CIRS IMRT thorax phantom study is presented with movable markers and the utilization of an Elekta Synergy{sup Registered-Sign} XVI system. Furthermore, a clinical prostate CBCT scan of a Varian{sup Registered-Sign} On-Board Imager{sup Registered-Sign} system is utilized to investigate the robustness of the method for large variations of image quality (anterior-posterior vs lateral views). Results: The results show that the BE shifts reduce the initial setup error of up to 3 cm down to 3 mm at maximum for an imaging arc as short as 10 Degree-Sign while CM achieves residual errors of 7 mm at maximum only for arcs longer than 40 Degree-Sign . Furthermore, the BE can compensate robustly for low image qualities using several low quality projections simultaneously. Conclusions: In conclusion, an estimation method for marker-based patient positioning for short imaging arcs is presented and shown to be robust and accurate for deformable anatomies.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-C-18C-02: Specifcation of X-Ray Projection Angles Which Are Aligned with the Aortic Valve Plane From a Planar Image of a Valvuloplasty Balloon Inflated Across the Aortic Valve

Purpose: Transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) procedures provide a method to implant a prosthetic aortic valve via a minimallyinvasive, catheter-based procedure. TAVR procedures require use of interventional fluoroscopy c-arm projection angles which are aligned with the aortic valve plane to minimize prosthetic valve positioning error due to x-ray imaging parallax. The purpose of this work is to calculate the continuous range of interventional fluoroscopy c-arm projection angles which are aligned with the aortic valve plane from a single planar image of a valvuloplasty balloon inflated across the aortic valve. Methods: Computational methods to measure the 3D angular orientation of the aortic valve were developed. Required inputs include a planar x-ray image of a known valvuloplasty balloon inflated across the aortic valve and specifications of x-ray imaging geometry from the DICOM header of the image. A-priori knowledge of the species-specific typical range of aortic orientation is required to specify the sign of the angle of the long axis of the balloon with respect to the x-ray beam. The methods were validated ex-vivo and in a live pig. Results: Ex-vivo experiments demonstrated that the angular orientation of a stationary inflated valvuloplasty balloon can be measured with precision less than 1 degree. In-vivo pig experiments demonstrated that cardiac motion contributed to measurement variability, with precision less than 3 degrees. Error in specification of x-ray geometry directly influences measurement accuracy. Conclusion: This work demonstrates that the 3D angular orientation of the aortic valve can be calculated precisely from a planar image of a valvuloplasty balloon inflated across the aortic valve and known x-ray geometry. This method could be used to determine appropriate c-arm angular projections during TAVR procedures to minimize x-ray imaging parallax and thereby minimize prosthetic valve positioning errors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-E-T-174: Evaluation of the Optimal Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy Plans Done On the Maximum and Average Intensity Projection CTs

Purpose: To determine the difference in coverage between plans done on average intensity projection and maximum intensity projection CT data sets for lung patients and to establish correlations between different factors influencing the coverage. Methods: For six lung cancer patients, 10 phases of equal duration through the respiratory cycle, the maximum and average intensity projections (MIP and AIP) from their 4DCT datasets were obtained. MIP and AIP datasets had three GTVs delineated (GTVaip — delineated on AIP, GTVmip — delineated on MIP and GTVfus — delineated on each of the 10 phases and summed up). From the each GTV, planning target volumes (PTV) were then created by adding additional margins. For each of the PTVs an IMRT plan was developed on the AIP dataset. The plans were then copied to the MIP data set and were recalculated. Results: The effective depths in AIP cases were significantly smaller than in MIP (p < 0.001). The Pearson correlation coefficient of r = 0.839 indicates strong degree of positive linear relationship between the average percentage difference in effective depths and average PTV coverage on the MIP data set. The V2 0 Gy of involved lung depends on the PTV coverage. The relationship between PTVaip mean CT number difference and PTVaip coverage on MIP data set gives r = 0.830. When the plans are produced on MIP and copied to AIP, r equals −0.756. Conclusion: The correlation between the AIP and MIP data sets indicates that the selection of the data set for developing the treatment plan affects the final outcome (cases with high average percentage difference in effective depths between AIP and MIP should be calculated on AIP). The percentage of the lung volume receiving higher dose depends on how well PTV is covered, regardless of on which set plan is done.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-F-18C-15: Model-Based Multiscale Noise Reduction On Low Dose Cone Beam Projection

Purpose: To improve image quality of low dose cone beam CT for patient positioning in radiation therapy. Methods: In low dose cone beam CT (CBCT) imaging systems, Poisson process governs the randomness of photon fluence at x-ray source and the detector because of the independent binomial process of photon absorption in medium. On a CBCT projection, the variance of fluence consists of the variance of noiseless imaging structure and that of Poisson noise, which is proportional to the mean (noiseless) of the fluence at the detector. This requires multiscale filters to smoothen noise while keeping the structure information of the imaged object. We used a mathematical model of Poisson process to design multiscale filters and established the balance of noise correction and structure blurring. The algorithm was checked with low dose kilo-voltage CBCT projections acquired from a Varian OBI system. Results: From the investigation of low dose CBCT of a Catphan phantom and patients, it showed that our model-based multiscale technique could efficiently reduce noise and meanwhile keep the fine structure of the imaged object. After the image processing, the number of visible line pairs in Catphan phantom scanned with 4 ms pulse time was similar to that scanned with 32 ms, and soft tissue structure from simulated 4 ms patient head-and-neck images was also comparable with scanned 20 ms ones. Compared with fixed-scale technique, the image quality from multiscale one was improved. Conclusion: Use of projection-specific multiscale filters can reach better balance on noise reduction and structure information loss. The image quality of low dose CBCT can be improved by using multiscale filters.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

TU-F-17A-08: The Relative Accuracy of 4D Dose Accumulation for Lung Radiotherapy Using Rigid Dose Projection Versus Dose Recalculation On Every Breathing Phase

Purpose: To investigate the accuracy of 4D dose accumulation using projection of dose calculated on the end-exhalation, mid-ventilation, or average intensity breathing phase CT scan, versus dose accumulation performed using full Monte Carlo dose recalculation on every breathing phase. Methods: Radiotherapy plans were analyzed for 10 patients with stage I-II lung cancer planned using 4D-CT. SBRT plans were optimized using the dose calculated by a commercially-available Monte Carlo algorithm on the end-exhalation 4D-CT phase. 4D dose accumulations using deformable registration were performed with a commercially available tool that projected the planned dose onto every breathing phase without recalculation, as well as with a Monte Carlo recalculation of the dose on all breathing phases. The 3D planned dose (3D-EX), the 3D dose calculated on the average intensity image (3D-AVE), and the 4D accumulations of the dose calculated on the end-exhalation phase CT (4D-PR-EX), the mid-ventilation phase CT (4D-PR-MID), and the average intensity image (4D-PR-AVE), respectively, were compared against the accumulation of the Monte Carlo dose recalculated on every phase. Plan evaluation metrics relating to target volumes and critical structures relevant for lung SBRT were analyzed. Results: Plan evaluation metrics tabulated using 4D-PR-EX, 4D-PR-MID, and 4D-PR-AVE differed from those tabulated using Monte Carlo recalculation on every phase by an average of 0.14±0.70 Gy, - 0.11±0.51 Gy, and 0.00±0.62 Gy, respectively. Deviations of between 8 and 13 Gy were observed between the 4D-MC calculations and both 3D methods for the proximal bronchial trees of 3 patients. Conclusions: 4D dose accumulation using projection without re-calculation may be sufficiently accurate compared to 4D dose accumulated from Monte Carlo recalculation on every phase, depending on institutional protocols. Use of 4D dose accumulation should be considered when evaluating normal tissue complication probabilities as well as in clinical situations where target volumes are directly inferior to mobile critical structures.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

WE-G-BRB-02: The Role of Program Project Grants in Study of 3D Conformal Therapy, Dose Escalation and Motion Management

Over the past 20 years the NIH has funded individual grants, program projects grants, and clinical trials which have been instrumental in advancing patient care. The ways that each grant mechanism lends itself to the different phases of translating research into clinical practice will be described. Major technological innovations, such as IMRT and proton therapy, have been advanced with R01-type and P01-type funding and will be discussed. Similarly, the role of program project grants in identifying and addressing key hypotheses on the potential of 3D conformal therapy, normal tissue-guided dose escalation and motion management will be described. An overview will be provided regarding how these technological innovations have been applied to multi-institutional NIH-sponsored trials. Finally, the panel will discuss regarding which research questions should be funded by the NIH to inspire the next advances in radiation therapy. Learning Objectives: Understand the different funding mechanisms of the NIH Learn about research advances that have led to innovation in delivery Review achievements due to NIH-funded program project grants in radiotherapy over the past 20 years Understand example advances achieved with multi-institutional clinical trials NIH.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

3D localization of electrophysiology catheters from a single x-ray cone-beam projection

Purpose: X-ray images allow the visualization of percutaneous devices such as catheters in real time but inherently lack depth information. The provision of 3D localization of these devices from cone beam x-ray projections would be advantageous for interventions such as electrophysiology (EP), whereby the operator needs to return a device to the same anatomical locations during the procedure. A method to achieve real-time 3D single view localization (SVL) of an object of known geometry from a single x-ray image is presented. SVL exploits the change in the magnification of an object as its distance from the x-ray source is varied. The x-ray projection of an object of interest is compared to a synthetic x-ray projection of a model of said object as its pose is varied. Methods: SVL was tested with a 3 mm spherical marker and an electrophysiology catheter. The effect of x-ray acquisition parameters on SVL was investigated. An independent reference localization method was developed to compare results when imaging a catheter translated via a computer controlled three-axes stage. SVL was also performed on clinical fluoroscopy image sequences. A commercial navigation system was used in some clinical image sequences for comparison. Results: SVL estimates exhibited little change as x-ray acquisition parameters were varied. The reproducibility of catheter position estimates in phantoms denoted by the standard deviations, (σ{sub x}, σ{sub y}, σ{sub z}) = (0.099 mm, 0.093 mm, 2.2 mm), where x and y are parallel to the detector plane and z is the distance from the x-ray source. Position estimates (x, y, z) exhibited a 4% systematic error (underestimation) when compared to the reference method. The authors demonstrated that EP catheters can be tracked in clinical fluoroscopic images. Conclusions: It has been shown that EP catheters can be localized in real time in phantoms and clinical images at fluoroscopic exposure rates. Further work is required to characterize performance in clinical images as well as the sensitivity to clinical image quality.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2016

SU-G-JeP3-04: Estimating 4D CBCT from Prior Information and Extremely Limited Angle Projections Using Structural PCA and Weighted Free-Form Deformation

Purpose: To investigate the feasibility of using structure-based principal component analysis (PCA) motion-modeling and weighted free-form deformation to estimate on-board 4D-CBCT using prior information and extremely limited angle projections for potential 4D target verification of lung radiotherapy. Methods: A technique for lung 4D-CBCT reconstruction has been previously developed using a deformation field map (DFM)-based strategy. In the previous method, each phase of the 4D-CBCT was generated by deforming a prior CT volume. The DFM was solved by a motion-model extracted by global PCA and a free-form deformation (GMM-FD) technique, using data fidelity constraint and the deformation energy minimization. In this study, a new structural-PCA method was developed to build a structural motion-model (SMM) by accounting for potential relative motion pattern changes between different anatomical structures from simulation to treatment. The motion model extracted from planning 4DCT was divided into two structures: tumor and body excluding tumor, and the parameters of both structures were optimized together. Weighted free-form deformation (WFD) was employed afterwards to introduce flexibility in adjusting the weightings of different structures in the data fidelity constraint based on clinical interests. XCAT (computerized patient model) simulation with a 30 mm diameter lesion was simulated with various anatomical and respirational changes from planning 4D-CT to onboard volume. The estimation accuracy was evaluated by the Volume-Percent-Difference (VPD)/Center-of-Mass-Shift (COMS) between lesions in the estimated and “ground-truth” on board 4D-CBCT. Results: Among 6 different XCAT scenarios corresponding to respirational and anatomical changes from planning CT to on-board using single 30° on-board projections, the VPD/COMS for SMM-WFD was reduced to 10.64±3.04%/1.20±0.45mm from 21.72±9.24%/1.80±0.53mm for GMM-FD. Using 15° orthogonal projections, the VPD/COMS was further reduced to 1.91±0.86%/0.31±0.42mm based on SMM-WFD. Conclusion: Compared to GMM-FD technique, the SMM-WFD technique can substantially improve the 4D-CBCT estimation accuracy using extremely small scan angles to provide ultra-fast 4D verification. This work was supported by the National Institutes of Health under Grant No. R01-CA184173 and a research grant from Varian Medical Systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Numerical simulation projects in micromagnetics with Jupyter

We report a case study where an existing materials science course was modified to include numerical simulation projects on the micromagnetic behavior of materials. The Ubermag micromagnetic simulation software package is used in order to solve problems computationally. The simulation software is controlled through the Python code in Jupyter notebooks. Our experience is that the self-paced problem-solving nature of the project work can facilitate a better in-depth exploration of the course contents. We discuss which aspects of the Ubermag and the project Jupyter ecosystem have been beneficial for the students' learning experience and which could be transferred to similar teaching activities in other subject areas.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2012

Status of NICA project

The project of Nuclotron-based Ion Collider fAcility NICA/MPD (+MultiPurpose Detector) under development at JINR (Dubna) is presented. The general goals of the project are providing of colliding beams for experimental studies of both hot and dense strongly interacting baryonicmatter and search for the mixed phase and critical endpoint and spin physics in collisions of polarized protons (deuterons). The first program requires providing of heavy-ion collisions in the energy range of {radical}s{sub NN} = 4 - 11 GeV at average luminosity of L = 1 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 27} cm{sup -2} s{sup -1} for {sup 197}Au{sup 79+}. The polarized beams mode is proposed to be used in energy range of {radical}s = 12 - 27 GeV (protons) at luminosity of L {>=} 1 Multiplication-Sign 10{sup 30} cm{sup -2} s{sup -1}. The report contains description of the facility scheme and characteristics in heavy-ion operation mode, status and plans of the project development.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

The ZFITTER project

The ZFITTER project is aimed at the computation of high-precision theoretical predictions for various observables in high-energy electron-positron annihilation and other processes. The stages of the project development are described. Accent is made on applications to the analysis of LEP data. The present status of the project and perspectives are given as well.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Project Nuclotron-based Ion Collider fAcility at JINR

The project of Nuclotron-based Ion Collider fAcility (NICA) that is under development at JINR (Dubna) is presented. The general goals of the project are experimental studies of both hot and dense baryonic matter and spin physics (in collisions of polarized protons and deuterons). The first program requires providing of heavy ion collisions in the energy range of √(s{sub NN}) = 4–11 Gev at average luminosity of L = 1 × 10{sup 27} cm{sup −2} s{sup −1} for {sup 197}Au{sup 79+} nuclei. The polarized beams mode is proposed to be used in energy range of √(s{sub NN}) = 12–27 Gev (protons at luminosity of L ≥ 1 × 10{sup 30} cm{sup −2} s{sup −1}. The report contains description of the facility scheme and its characteristics in heavy ion operation mode. The Collider will be equipped with two detectors—MultiPurpose Detector (MPD), which is in an active stage of construction, and Spin Physics Detector (SPD) that is in the stage of conceptual design. Fixed target experiment “Baryonic matter at Nuclotron” (BM@N) will be performed in very beginning of the project. The wide program of applied researches at NICA facility is being developed as well.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

PIPES (Pipeline for Integrated Projects in Energy Systems) [SWR-24-89]

The Pipeline for Integrated Projects in Energy Systems (PIPES) is a comprehensive project, data, and workflow management tool designed for integrated modeling teams. PIPES facilitates the management of data requirements, tasks, and progress tracking, serving as a higher-level integration layer that works across various data and modeling software. This tool integrates models, data, and tools to perform large-scale, integrated analysis work at scale. PIPES is designed to streamline integrated modeling projects, enhance collaboration, and ensure the quality and efficiency of data management and workflow processes. https://github.com/nrel-pipes/pipes-api https://github.com/nrel-pipes/pipes-web https://github.com/nrel-pipes/nrel-pipes

Gu, Jianli↗
DOE OSTI2015

Evolving Obs4MIPs to Support Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6)

Over the past four years, an initiative known as Observations for Model Intercomparison Projects (Obs4MIPs) has successfully completed its pilot phase by adopting a set of technical protocols (dataset format, metadata standards, and documentation requirements) for dataset contributions, producing datasets that conform to these standards and archiving them for distribution on the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) alongside the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) model output. This pilot phase of Obs4MIPs, initiated by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) and the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, supported CMIP5 and provided a path to improve the coordination between observational communities and major climate modeling intercomparison projects such as CMIP. Obs4MIPs is now being embraced by the international community, with the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Data Advisory Council (WDAC) empaneling a task team to provide guidance and governance for Obs4MIPs at an international level, in conjunction with the existing NASA Science Working Group that is more tightly focused on NASA satellite data products. Here, following the example of the first DOE–NASA Obs4MIPs meeting, and with an initial design of CMIP6 being published, a meeting of over 50 experts in both climate modeling and satellite data from the United States, Europe, Japan, and Australia convened at NASA headquarters in Washington, D.C., for the purpose of planning the evolution of Obs4MIPs and its connection to the CMIP6 experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part III: Variability

Abstract Daily expected wind power production from operating wind farms across North America are used to evaluate capacity factors (CF) computed using simulation output from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and to condition statistical models linking atmospheric conditions to electricity production. In Parts I and II of this work, we focus on making projections of annual energy production and the occurrence of electrical production drought. Here, we extend evaluation of the CF projections for sites in the Northeast, Midwest, southern Great Plains (SGP), and southwest U.S. coast (SWC) using statewide wind-generated electricity supply to the grid. We then quantify changes in the time scales of CF variability and the seasonality. Currently, wind-generated electricity is lowest in summer in each region except SWC, which causes a substantial mismatch with electricity demand. While electricity of residential heating may shift demand, research presented here suggests that summertime CF are likely to decline, potentially exacerbating the offset between seasonal peak power production and current load. The reduction in summertime CF is manifest for all regions except the SGP and appears to be linked to a reduction in synoptic-scale variability. Using fulfillment of 50% and 90% of annual energy production to quantify interannual variability, it is shown that wind power production exhibits higher (earlier fulfillment) or lower (later fulfillment) production for periods of over 10–30 years as a result of the action of internal climate modes. Significance Statement Electrical power system reassessment and redesign may be needed to aid efficient increased use of variable renewables in the generation of electricity. Currently wind-generated electricity in many regions of North America exhibits a minimum in summertime and hence is not well synchronized with electricity demand, which tends to be maximized in summer. Future projections indicate evidence of reductions in wind power during summer that would amplify this offset. However, electrification of heating may lead to increased wintertime demand, which would lead to greater synchronization.

Coburn, Jacob↗