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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

2015 Advanced Site Investigation and Monitoring Report Riverton, Wyoming, Processing Site September 2016

The U.S. Department of Energy conducted initial groundwater characterization of the Riverton, Wyoming, Processing Site in the 1990s. The characterization culminated in a Site Observational Work Plan in 1998 that recommended a natural flushing compliance strategy. Results of verification monitoring indicated that natural flushing was generally progressing as expected until June 2010, when significant increases in contaminant concentrations were measured in several monitoring wells downgradient of the site after the area flooded. In response to the unexpected results following the flood, an enhanced characterization of the surficial aquifer was conducted in 2012, which included installation of 103 boreholes along nine transects with a Geoprobe, collection of 103 water samples and 65 soil samples, laboratory tests on the soil samples, and additional groundwater modeling. This advanced site investigation report summarizes additional investigation in 2015 through the use of backhoe trenching, sonic drilling, multilevel monitoring wells, direct-push drilling, and temporary well points to collect soil and groundwater samples. Additional surface water measurements were made included the installation of a stilling well and the measurement of stream elevation along the Wind River to approximate upgradient groundwater heads. Groundwater sampling included the addition of geochemical constituents and isotopes that have not been sampled in the past to better understand post-flood conditions and the possibility of additional or ongoing contaminant sources. This sampling was performed to (1) better define the contaminant plumes, (2) verify the occurrence of persistent secondary contaminant sources, (3) better understand the reason for the contaminant spikes after a 2010 flood, and (4) assess contaminant plume stagnation near the Little Wind River. This report provides data analyses and interpretations for the 2015 site investigation that addresses these issues and provides recommendations for future efforts. Observations from trenches and sonic drilling indicate the general lithology of the shallow, unconsolidated sediments consists of a silt zone at the surface that ranges from 2.5 to 4.8 feet below ground surface, underlain by sand and gravel, underlain by the top of the weathered bedrock (Wind River Formation). Soil data from trenches and sonic drilling indicate (1) elevated concentrations of several constituents in the silt zone, likely due to the formation of evaporites, (2) uranium is the only measured element that appears to be concentrated in the silt over the groundwater contaminant plume, (3) in the former tailings impoundment area, there may be a thin unsaturated zone with elevated uranium in the native material just below the fill, (4) in the former tailings impoundment area, slightly higher uranium concentrations occur in the underlying saturated sand and gravel, and (5) several bedrock samples have a unique geochemical signature, generally related to a higher silt content. Assessment of groundwater flow included measuring river elevations along the Wind River and installing the temporary well points adjacent to the Little Wind River that provided additional data points to refine contours for water table elevations. These data confirm past interpretations of groundwater flow to the southeast across the site toward the Little Wind River. Hydraulic head elevations between paired surficial and semiconfined aquifer wells indicate variable vertical gradients across the site with the potential for upward and downward flow. Additional direct-push drilling and groundwater sampling confirmed the contaminant plume configuration, but it also revealed a low-sulfate-concentration zone at the edge of the former tailings impoundment. Temporary well points provided better definition of plume concentrations at the bank of the Little Wind River, and data from these wells indicate plume discharge to the river. Additional sampling in an area southwest of the plume that had elevated uranium groundwater concentrations in the past did not have any uranium concentrations above the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency maximum concentration limit for uranium. Results from multilevel monitoring wells indicate some geochemical differences with depth, but overall concentrations are similar to those in nearby conventional monitoring wells in the long-term monitoring program. Geochemistry data from these multilevel monitoring wells confirm the general increase in contaminant concentrations toward the river and toward the plume centerline for chloride, sulfate, and uranium but highlight geochemical controls on calcium. Iron data indicate slightly reducing conditions, especially near water table and bedrock surfaces, with more oxidizing conditions in the middle of the sand and gravel. Uranium activity ratios (234U/238U) confirm the uranium plume in the surficial aquifer as being mill related, and the area to the southwest outside the plume as natural, non-mill related. In the semiconfined aquifer, evidence of aquifer connection and impacts from the mill is inconclusive. Values of δD and δ 18 O suggest water is derived from different sources and tritium data confirm that the semiconfined aquifer water is generally older than the surficial aquifer water. However, these data do indicate some groundwater communication from the surficial aquifer into the semiconfined aquifer, which resulted in δD and δ 18 O and tritium values in the semiconfined aquifer that are more similar to those in the surficial aquifer. Values of δ 34 S sulfate in the semiconfined aquifer combined with sulfate concentrations indicate the potential for some mill- related sulfate in the semiconfined aquifer, albeit limited to an area near and beneath the former tailings impoundment. Uranium and molybdenum concentrations in the semiconfined aquifer are below groundwater standards in all wells. However, the elevated molybdenum concentrations at one semiconfined aquifer well underneath the former tailings impoundment suggests a mill- derived source for the uranium and molybdenum in that well. It is possible that aquifer cross- communication occurred when the tailings impoundment was active and created a higher head. Current cross-communication appears unlikely given the large differences in tritium values and an upward hydraulic head at this location. Nine domestic wells are located within the institutional control boundary (eight in the confined aquifer and one in the semiconfined aquifer). Uranium and molybdenum concentrations in all samples collected from these wells were one or two orders of magnitude below the groundwater standards. Surface water flow in the Little Wind River in September 2015 was low compared to historical averages for that time of year. As a result, the uranium concentration measured in the Little Wind River was at a historical maximum at the sampling location upstream of the site. However, the impact of uranium discharge from the groundwater plume into the Little Wind River was not measureable. Elevated sulfate concentrations were observed in an outfall ditch related to an active sulfuric acid plant. Uranium concentrations in the oxbow lake remain at concentrations above the groundwater standard. Plume contaminant concentrations had returned to levels found prior to the 2010 flood by the end of 2015. However, these concentrations still exceed model predictions for natural flushing, and the current data indicate that natural flushing to achieve remediation goals within the 100-year time period is not likely, especially with the high potential for additional floods in the update to the conceptual site model (CSM), soil data indicate additional contaminant sources, specifically uranium, in evaporites within the silt layer over the uranium plume and in naturally reduced zones (NRZs). Additional zones of slightly elevated uranium concentration are in the native sediments just above the water table but below the fill layer in the former tailings impoundment area. This area also has slightly elevated uranium in the sand and gravel below the water table. Mass balance calculations indicate that small amounts of dissolution in any of these zones with increased uranium in the solid phase can produce groundwater uranium concentrations above the groundwater standard and could account for the post-flood uranium spike. The additional uranium near the former tailings impoundment provides a mechanism for a continuing source for the uranium plume that was not considered in earlier natural flushing models. In addition, uranium released from the silt layer or the NRZs seasonally and during flooding may add uranium to the groundwater plume near the Little Wind River. These mechanisms provide a possible explanation for plume persistence, along with spikes in concentrations during floods, that creates the current plume configuration. Additional updates to the CSM include (1) chloride flushes more rapidly than uranium beneath the former mill site, (2) chloride in the silt layer provides a scenario in which chloride cannot be used as a conservative tracer (especially in areas prone to flooding), (3) uranium concentrations with depth can be variable (especially below NRZs), and (4) calcite and gypsum solubility limits appear to provide important geochemical controls on groundwater geochemistry. The conclusion of this study provides several recommendations for additional work to refine the CSM and continue assessment of the natural flushing compliance strategy. Recommendations for additional work include targeted soil and groundwater sampling to assess geochemical conditions, distribution of contaminants, and groundwater/surface water interaction; additional column tests to provide data for geochemical modeling; and development of an updated groundwater flow model, which will be used in conjunction with a geochemical model to assess the viability of the natural flushing compliance strategy.

2015 Monitoring Riverton, WY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Guidance for Monitoring Passive Groundwater Remedies Over Extended Time Scales

Passive remediation can be appropriate where natural processes and actions such as institutional controls mitigate exposure to contaminated groundwater, achieving remedial action objectives and protectiveness of human health and the environment. Monitored natural attenuation (MNA) is a prevalent passive remediation strategy supported by a regulatory framework and monitoring design guidance. However, long-term passive remedies are usually selected in combination with at least one active remedy, such as source removal, in situ treatment, or pump-and-treat, functioning as a complementary method for achieving remediation objectives and meeting the applicable statutory and regulatory requirements. However, MNA and existing monitoring guidance primarily target situations where the remedial action objectives are met within a few decades. When time scales for passive remediation extend to many decades (50 years or more), a corresponding change in monitoring strategy is needed to adapt to the extended time scale. This document provides guidance for implementing an extended-scale monitoring (ESM) approach appropriate for long-duration passive remediation. Extended-scale is defined in this document with respect to time (i.e., a long duration of remediation) and a large enough physical scale such that downstream receptors will not be impacted within the remediation timeframe. ESM applies to slow-moving groundwater contaminant plumes and emphasizes monitoring primarily for potential exposure pathways. For this approach, the primary monitoring objective is to demonstrate that the plume diminishes before reaching the receptor zone or point of compliance and/or a receptor does not receive concentrations above the compliance limit. While the overall objectives of protecting human health and the environment are the same as for plumes where remediation can occur over a shorter time period, the time scales between decisions are longer and the dynamics of plume evolution are slower. To this end, a scenario-based strategy is described for different plume and source conditions, defining a containment and receptor zones. The containment zone is the area where the risk of exposure to groundwater contamination can be mitigated (e.g., through institutional controls) during the remediation time period. The receptor zone is defined as the area where exposure to groundwater contamination cannot be mitigated and compliance concentration standards must be met. Within the containment zone, slow plume migration may occur, leading to concentrations that exceed compliance standards. However, where distance to the receptor zone is large relative to plume migration and attenuation rate, this approach can be protective of the receptor zone. Selection of a long-duration passive remedy needs to be based on sufficient understanding of contaminant sources, hydrogeology, and contaminant plumes. A strong technical basis, supported by predictive analysis, is recommended to substantiate that contamination is expected to stay within the containment zone during the active remediation and attainment phase of the remedy, and diminish to meet compliance standards within the extended timeframe prior to reaching the receptor zone (e.g., many decades or even centuries). The ESM approach is based on verification of plume behavior and not on detailed plume dynamics. Monitoring is conducted to confirm expected behavior with an emphasis on exposure pathways to verify that plumes remain contained in areas where the protectiveness objectives can be met. ESM should not be adopted if there is significant risk of the plume extending beyond the containment zone. Given the slow movement within the containment zone, less frequent sampling is required relative to approaches used for conventional-scale remediation.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2025

Initial Uncertainty Analysis of Carbon Tetrachloride Contamination and Remediation in the Ringold A and Lower Mud Units at the Central Plateau

The long-term effectiveness of groundwater cleanup at the Hanford Site Central Plateau depends on predictive models that can capture key uncertainties in contaminant fate and transport. Carbon tetrachloride (CCl 4 ), a persistent and toxic compound, presents particular challenges due to variability in degradation rates, uncertainty in initial plume distribution, and subsurface heterogeneity. These uncertainties directly influence plume persistence, migration pathways, and remedy performance, and thus must be systematically evaluated to support long-term remediation planning. To address these gaps, a large-scale Monte Carlo analysis was conducted using the Plateau to River (P2R) model framework. The modeling approach parameterized three primary uncertainty factors: (1) degradation rate, (2) initial plume distribution, and (3) hydraulic conductivity. Degradation was represented as a first-order process, with half-lives ranging from 70 to 700 years. Initial plume distributions were created using a geostatistical simulation method (sgsim), which generates many equally plausible versions of how contaminants might be distributed underground. From this, 100 different scenarios were mapped onto the P2R grid. Variability in hydraulic conductivity was represented in a similar way, with 100 scenarios each for the Ringold Lower Mud and Ringold A units (layers 6 and 7), based on fitted exponential variograms and conditioned to well data. In total, more than 1000 realizations were simulated to assess plume behavior under uncertainty. Results demonstrate that degradation kinetics exert the strongest control over plume persistence: Shorter half-lives produced rapid mass reduction, while longer half-lives yielded persistent plumes with limited attenuation. A nonlinear response was observed, with steep mass reductions at half-lives greater than 200 years and near-linear declines beyond this threshold, reflecting interactions between degradation and pumping. The initial plume distribution strongly influenced early transport patterns, with broader sources generating larger plume footprints, although pump-and-treat operations constrained plume migration to managed areas. By comparison, hydraulic conductivity variability in the Ringold units had only a secondary influence, modifying spreading behavior without altering the dominant migration pathways governed by source configuration and hydraulic controls. Overall, the analysis highlights that uncertainty in degradation rate and initial plume configuration are the primary drivers of variability in plume predictions, while conductivity heterogeneity plays a limited role. These findings underscore the need for improved site-specific data on degradation processes and source characterization to enhance the reliability of long-term performance assessments and to better inform remedial decision-making at the Central Plateau.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2003

Characteristics and Influence of Biosmoke on the Fine-Particle Ionic Composition Measured in Asian Outflow during the Transport and Chemical Evolution Over the Pacific (TRACE-P) Experiment

We investigate the sources, prevalence, and fine-particle inorganic composition of biosmoke over the western Pacific Ocean between 24 February and 10 April 2001. The analysis is based on highly time-resolved airborne measurements of gaseous and fine- particle inorganic chemical composition made during the NASA Transport and Chemical Evolution over the Pacific (TRACE-P) experiment. At latitudes below approximately 25 deg. N, relatively pure biomass burning plumes of enhanced fine-particle potassium, nitrate, ammonium, light-absorbing aerosols, and CO concentrations were observed in plumes that back trajectories and satellite fire map data suggest originated from biomass burning in southeast Asia. Fine-particle water-soluble potassium (K+) is confirmed to be a unique biosmoke tracer, and its prevalence throughout the experiment indicates that approximately 20% of the TRACE-P Asian outflow plumes were influenced, to some extent, by biomass or biofuel burning emissions. At latitudes above 25 deg. N, highly mixed urban/industrial and biosmoke plumes, indicated by SO(sup 2, sub 4) and K+, were observed in 5 out of 53 plumes. Most plumes were found in the Yellow Sea and generally were associated with much higher fine-particle loadings than plumes lacking a biosmoke influence. The air mass back trajectories of these mixed plumes generally pass through the latitude range of between 34 deg. and 40 deg. N on the eastern China coast, a region that includes the large urban centers of Beijing and Tianjin. A lack of biomass burning emissions based on fire maps and high correlations between K+ and pollution tracers (e.g., S(sup 2, sub 4) suggest biofuel sources. Ratios of fine-particle potassium to sulfate are used to provide an estimate of relative contributions of biosmoke emissions to the mixed Asian plumes. The ratio is highly correlated with fine-particle volume (r(sup 2) = 0.85) and predicts that for the most polluted plume encounter in TRACE-P, approximately 60% of the plume is associated with biosmoke emissions. On average, biosmoke contributes approximately 35-40% to the measured fine inorganic aerosol mass in the mixed TRACE-P plumes intercepted north of 25% latitude.

Ma, Y.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Biomass-Burning Smoke Heights over the Amazon Observed from Space

We characterise the vertical distribution of biomass-burning emissions across the Amazon during the biomass-burning season (July–November) with an extensive climatology of smoke plumes derived from MISR and MODIS (2005–2012) and CALIOP (2006–2012) observations. Smoke plume heights exhibit substantial variability, spanning a few hundred metres up to 6 km above the terrain. However, the majority of the smoke is located at altitudes below 2.5 km. About 60 % of smoke plumes are observed in drought years, 40 %–50 % at the peak month of the burning season (September) and 94 % over tropical forest and savanna regions, with respect to the total number of smoke plume observations. At the time of the MISR observations (10:00–11:00 LT), the highest plumes are detected over grassland fires (with an averaged maximum plume height of ∼1100 m) and the lowest plumes occur over tropical forest fires (∼800 m). A similar pattern is found later in the day (14:00–15:00 LT) with CALIOP, although at higher altitudes (2300 m grassland vs. 2000 m tropical forest), as CALIOP typically detects smoke at higher altitudes due to its later overpass time, associated with a deeper planetary boundary layer, possibly more energetic fires, and greater sensitivity to thin aerosol layers. On average, 3 %–20 % of the fires inject smoke into the free troposphere; this percentage tends to increase toward the end of the burning season (November: 15 %–40 %). We find a well-defined seasonal cycle between MISR plume heights, MODIS fire radiative power and atmospheric stability across the main biomes of the Amazon, with higher smoke plumes, more intense fires and reduced atmospheric stability conditions toward the end of the burning season. Lower smoke plume heights are detected during drought (800 m) compared to non-drought (1100 m) conditions, in particular over tropical forest and savanna fires. Drought conditions favour understory fires over tropical forest, which tend to produce smouldering combustion and low smoke injection heights. Droughts also seem to favour deeper boundary layers and the percentage of smoke plumes that reach the free troposphere is lower during these dry conditions. Consistent with previous studies, the MISR mid-visible aerosol optical depth demonstrates that smoke makes a significant contribution to the total aerosol loading over the Amazon, which in combination with lower injection heights in drought periods has important implications for air quality. This work highlights the importance of biome type, fire properties and atmospheric and drought conditions for plume dynamics and smoke loading. In addition, our study demonstrates the value of combining observations of MISR and CALIOP constraints on the vertical distribution of smoke from biomass burning over the Amazon.

Gonzalez-Alonso, Laura↗
DOE OSTI2018

The Role of Capillary Hysteresis and Pore-Scale Heterogeneity in Limiting the Migration of Buoyant Immiscible Fluids in Porous Media

Understanding the main mechanisms affecting long-term migration and redistribution of injected CO 2 in geological carbon storage is needed for developing predictive models to assess environmental risks and designing monitoring schemes. Preparation of a postinjection site care plan is required for CO 2 injection wells, including monitoring of pressure changes and injected CO 2 plume. Knowledge gaps exist regarding assessment of postinjection monitoring timeframes for the CO 2 plume because the processes driving long-term CO 2 plume migration and trapping are not fully understood. In the postinjection stage of geological carbon storage, redistribution of CO 2 occurs mainly due to buoyancy and capillary forces. This work presents experimental and modeling studies to investigate processes contributing to postinjection plume distribution and stabilization. We conducted a flow cell experiments (0.5 m × 0.05 m × 0.01 m) with two immiscible fluid phases in a glass bead porous medium to study postinjection plume behavior. We employed a hysteretic macroscopic two-phase flow model to interpret the experimental results and to understand main processes leading to plume stabilization. Our findings show that capillary pressure hysteresis explains the experimentally observed plume shape and redistribution at early postinjection stages; however, the long-term plume migration and eventual plume stabilization can only be represented when in addition microscale heterogeneity is accounted for. Results also show that plume stabilization can be extremely slow and that the migration of the plume front can occur through multiple intermittent bursts over long times. Here, further studies are needed to understand implications of the results for more realistic porous media and large-scale storage reservoirs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeled and observed properties related to the direct aerosol radiative effect of biomass burning aerosol over the southeastern Atlantic

Biomass burning smoke is advected over the southeastern Atlantic Ocean between July and October of each year. This smoke plume overlies and mixes into a region of persistent low marine clouds. Model calculations of climate forcing by this plume vary significantly in both magnitude and sign. NASA EVS-2 (Earth Venture Suborbital-2) ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) had deployments for field campaigns off the west coast of Africa in 3 consecutive years (September 2016, August 2017, and October 2018) with the goal of better characterizing this plume as a function of the monthly evolution by measuring the parameters necessary to calculate the direct aerosol radiative effect. Here, this dataset and satellite retrievals of cloud properties are used to test the representation of the smoke plume and the underlying cloud layer in two regional models (WRF-CAM5 and CNRM-ALADIN) and two global models (GEOS and UM-UKCA). The focus is on the comparisons of those aerosol and cloud properties that are the primary determinants of the direct aerosol radiative effect and on the vertical distribution of the plume and its properties. The representativeness of the observations to monthly averages are tested for each field campaign, with the sampled mean aerosol light extinction generally found to be within 20 % of the monthly mean at plume altitudes. When compared to the observations, in all models, the simulated plume is too vertically diffuse and has smaller vertical gradients, and in two of the models (GEOS and UM-UKCA), the plume core is displaced lower than in the observations. Plume carbon monoxide, black carbon, and organic aerosol masses indicate underestimates in modeled plume concentrations, leading, in general, to underestimates in mid-visible aerosol extinction and optical depth. Biases in mid-visible single scatter albedo are both positive and negative across the models. Observed vertical gradients in single scatter albedo are not captured by the models, but the models do capture the coarse temporal evolution, correctly simulating higher values in October (2018) than in August (2017) and September (2016). Uncertainties in the measured absorption Ångstrom exponent were large but propagate into a negligible (<4 %) uncertainty in integrated solar absorption by the aerosol and, therefore, in the aerosol direct radiative effect. Model biases in cloud fraction, and, therefore, the scene albedo below the plume, vary significantly across the four models. The optical thickness of clouds is, on average, well simulated in the WRF-CAM5 and ALADIN models in the stratocumulus region and is underestimated in the GEOS model; UM-UKCA simulates cloud optical thickness that is significantly too high. Overall, the study demonstrates the utility of repeated, semi-random sampling across multiple years that can give insights into model biases and how these biases affect modeled climate forcing. The combined impact of these aerosol and cloud biases on the direct aerosol radiative effect (DARE) is estimated using a first-order approximation for a subset of five comparison grid boxes. A significant finding is that the observed grid box average aerosol and cloud properties yield a positive (warming) aerosol direct radiative effect for all five grid boxes, whereas DARE using the grid-box-averaged modeled properties ranges from much larger positive values to small, negative values. It is shown quantitatively how model biases can offset each other, so that model improvements that reduce biases in only one property (e.g., single scatter albedo but not cloud fraction) would lead to even greater biases in DARE. Across the models, biases in aerosol extinction and in cloud fraction and optical depth contribute the largest biases in DARE, with aerosol single scatter albedo also making a significant contribution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Assessment of geophysical monitoring methods for detection of brine and CO 2 leakage in drinking water aquifers

Here, we evaluated and compared the effectiveness of four surface-based geophysical monitoring methods to downhole pressure and chemical methods to detect brine and CO 2 leakage in underground sources of drinking water overlying a CO 2 storage reservoir. This assessment uses synthetic monitoring data generated from 400 simulated aquifer impact data sets. Here, the six monitoring techniques can detect impacted groundwater once 20,000 tonnes of CO 2 have leaked into the drinking water resource. Geophysical methods are most effective at detecting shallow plumes. Although downhole monitoring methods outperform geophysical methods in detecting deep plumes, geophysical methods may help reduce the false negative during the post injection site care because they detect impacted groundwater where downhole sensors may be absent.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2013

Pollution Transport From North America to Greenland During Summer 2008

Ozone pollution transported to the Arctic is a significant concern because of the rapid, enhanced warming in high northern latitudes, which is caused, in part, by short lived climate forcers, such as ozone. Long range transport of pollution contributes to background and episodic ozone levels in the Arctic. However, the extent to which plumes are photochemically active during transport, particularly during the summer, is uncertain. Regional chemical transport model simulations are used to examine photochemical production of ozone in air masses originating from boreal fire and anthropogenic emissions over North America and during their transport toward the Arctic during early July 2008. Model results shows good agreement with aircraft data collected over boreal fire source regions in Canada and several days downwind over Greenland during the study period. Pollutant plumes were transported east and north towards the Arctic and show significant ozone enhancements downwind of source regions. Anthropogenic plumes were more photochemically active than fire plumes. Together, both sources made an important contribution to ozone in pollution plumes transported to the Arctic.

Thomas, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Evaluation and Intercomparison of Wildfire Smoke Forecasts from Multiple Modeling Systems for the 2019 Williams Flats Fire

Wildfire smoke is one of the most significant concerns of human and environmental health, associated with its substantial impacts on air quality, weather, and climate. However, biomass burning emissions and smoke remain among the largest sources of uncertainties in air quality forecasts. In this study, we evaluate the smoke emissions and plume forecasts from 12 state-of-the-art air quality forecasting systems during the Williams Flats fire in Washington State, US, August 2019, which was intensively observed during the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) field campaign. Model forecasts with lead times within 1 d are intercompared under the same framework based on observations from multiple platforms to reveal their performance regarding fire emissions, aerosol optical depth (AOD), surface PM2.5, plume injection, and surface PM2.5 to AOD ratio. The comparison of smoke organic carbon (OC) emissions suggests a large range of daily totals among the models, with a factor of 20 to 50. Limited representations of the diurnal patterns and day-to-day variations of emissions highlight the need to incorporate new methodologies to predict the temporal evolution and reduce uncertainty of smoke emission estimates. The evaluation of smoke AOD (sAOD) forecasts suggests overall underpredictions in both the magnitude and smoke plume area for nearly all models, although the high-resolution models have a better representation of the fine-scale structures of smoke plumes. The models driven by fire radiative power (FRP)-based fire emissions or assimilating satellite AOD data generally outperform the others. Additionally, limitations of the persistence assumption used when predicting smoke emissions are revealed by substantial underpredictions of sAOD on 8 August 2019, mainly over the transported smoke plumes, owing to the underestimated emissions on 7 August. In contrast, the surface smoke PM2.5 (sPM2.5) forecasts show both positive and negative overall biases for these models, with most members presenting more considerable diurnal variations of sPM2.5. Overpredictions of sPM2.5 are found for the models driven by FRP-based emissions during nighttime, suggesting the necessity to improve vertical emission allocation within and above the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Smoke injection heights are further evaluated using the NASA Langley Research Center's Differential Absorption High Spectral Resolution Lidar (DIAL-HSRL) data collected during the flight observations. As the fire became stronger over 3–8 August, the plume height became deeper, with a day-to-day range of about 2–9 km a.g.l. However, narrower ranges are found for all models, with a tendency of overpredicting the plume heights for the shallower injection transects and underpredicting for the days showing deeper injections. The misrepresented plume injection heights lead to inaccurate vertical plume allocations along the transects corresponding to transported smoke that is 1 d old. Discrepancies in model performance for surface PM2.5 and AOD are further suggested by the evaluation of their ratio, which cannot be compensated for by solely adjusting the smoke emissions but are more attributable to model representations of plume injections, besides other possible factors including the evolution of PBL depths and aerosol optical property assumptions. By consolidating multiple forecast systems, these results provide strategic insight on pathways to improve smoke forecasts.

AOD↗