Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Optimal estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,783 records · Page 99
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Universal time scalings of sensitivity in Markovian quantum metrology

Assuming Markovian time evolution of a quantum sensing system, we study the general characterization of the optimal sensitivity scalings with time, under most general quantum control protocols. We allow the estimated parameter to influence both the Hamiltonian as well as the dissipative part of the quantum master equation and focus on the asymptotic-time along with the short-time sensitivity scalings. We find that via simple algebraic conditions (in terms of the Hamiltonian, the jump operators as well as their parameter derivatives), one can characterize the four classes of metrological models that represent: quadratic-linear, quadratic-quadratic, linear-linear, and linear-quadratic time scalings. We also investigate the relevant time scales on which the transition between the two regimes appears. Additionally, we provide universal numerical methods to obtain quantitative bounds on sensitivity that are the tightest that exist in the literature. Simplicity and universality of our results make it suitable for diverse applications in quantum metrology.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

A Machine Learning–Based Tire Life Prediction Framework for Increasing Life of Commercial Vehicle Tires

In the commercial freight industry, tire retreading decisions are often conservative due to limited knowledge of a tire’s remaining service life. This practice leads to increased costs and material waste. This paper proposes a machine learning–based approach for estimating tire casing life and retreadability, focusing on usage data rather than wear information. This approach could extend the tire’s lifespan and reduce landfill waste. Data integration from diverse tire casing measurement sources presents challenges, including imbalanced removal data. Our methodology addresses these challenges by using historical inspection, telematics, and finite element modeling (FEM) datasets. We introduce “Tire Casing Energy” as a comprehensive usage input and apply a Variance-Reduction Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (VR-SMOTE) for data imbalance rectification. A random forest model is used to estimate the state of the tire casing and the casing removal probability, with Bayesian optimization applied for hyperparameter tuning, enhancing model accuracy. Here, the proposed prediction framework is able to differentiate different truck fleets and tire locations based on their usage parameters. With the aid of this machine learning model, the importance and sensitivity of different tire usage parameters can be obtained, which is beneficial to maximize tire life.

Data balancing↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fully quantum algorithm for mesoscale fluid simulations with application to partial differential equations

Fluid flow simulations marshal our most powerful computational resources. In many cases, even this is not enough. Quantum computers provide an opportunity to speed up traditional algorithms for flow simulations. We show that lattice-based mesoscale numerical methods can be executed as efficient quantum algorithms due to their statistical features. This approach revises a quantum algorithm for lattice gas automata to reduce classical computations and state preparation at every time step. For this, the algorithm approximates the qubit relative phases and subtracts them at the end of each time step. Phases are evaluated using the iterative phase estimation algorithm and subtracted using single-qubit rotation phase gates. Further, this method optimizes the quantum resource required and makes it more appropriate for near-term quantum hardware. We also demonstrate how the checkerboard deficiency that the D1Q2 scheme presents can be resolved using the D1Q3 scheme. The algorithm is validated by simulating two canonical partial differential equations: the diffusion and Burgers' equations on different quantum simulators. We find good agreement between quantum simulations and classical solutions for the presented algorithm.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2019

Validation of RELAP-7 for Forced Convective and Natural Circulation Reactor Flows

New reactor designs such as small modular reactors and newly proposed passive safety systems rely on natural circulation two-phase flow cooling of the reactor core under accident conditions. Without a pump to drive the flow, the circulation rate is a strong function of void fraction. Under these conditions where the flow rate, pressure drop, and heat transfer are all closely coupled through the mixture density, the accurate prediction of void fraction is pivotal. Furthermore, while these passive systems boast a more reliable cooling option, the sensitivity of the system to two-phase flow instabilities is more likely than in forced convective cooling and can result in dangerous density wave or flow excursion conditions. Improvement of one-dimensional system codes and further development of three-dimensional code capability are all important efforts in addressing these issues. The proposed work is a critical step towards providing confidence through validation of the capability of thermal-hydraulic tools to meet the emerging challenges in reactor simulation. Historically, system analysis codes develop a stiffness over time due to fine-tuning of adjustable code parameters that result in a reluctance or inability to adopt improved models. Therefore, a rigorous effort should be invested in preparation for RELAP-7 to identify required modeling improvements of constitutive relations and validation of the code applicability to the wide range of possible reactor flow conditions. Part of this validation involves the uncertainty quantification which is a critical step in the Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) methodology and Best-Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) licensing method. BEPU allows recovery of safety margins and potentially optimizing plant performance, resulting in economic benefit for the reactor operators. Beginning with the collection of past experimental data covering prototypic LWR conditions, this document reviews three critical datasets available for the validation of system codes. The experimental methods, procedures, facilities, instrumentation, and supplementary information are consolidated to aid the validation efforts of this work and future projects. These three datasets (824 conditions) are chosen due to their wide acceptance and demonstrated application for code validation. Two experimental datasets from the Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation (NUPEC) span prototypic conditions of Boiling Water Reactors (BWR) and Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR). These datasets are labeled as the BFBT (BWR Full-size Fine-mesh Bundle Test) and the PSBT (PWR Subchannel and Bundle Test) datasets respectively. The third dataset is taken in an internally heated annulus that is scaled based on a BWR subassembly and includes two-phase flows important to post-blowdown analysis. Together, the datasets consider the full range of pressure and mass flux expected in LWR forced convective flows from steady-state to long term cooling conditions. Recognizing the deficiency of available data under low-pressure, low-flow, a new natural circulation dataset consisting of 107 conditions is obtained. With system pressures ranging between 145 and 950 kPa, natural circulation is driven by a heat flux up to 275 kW/m2 in a 3 m long heated region of the annulus test section which is followed by a 2 m long unheated region before entering a condenser. Stable natural circulation flow rates in this facility were measured to be between 182 and 590 kg/m2-s. Pressure and temperature are measured at ten locations in the facility. In addition, measurements of void fraction, interfacial area concentration, and gas velocity are obtained at five axial locations in the annulus test section. The RELAP5-3D code demonstrates good accuracy for void fraction predictions in BFBT and PSBT benchmarks, but shows relatively large discrepancy in the annulus experiments at lower pressures. In two-phase natural circulation, large oscillations are observed in many system parameters during the simulation of 19 experiment cases which were conducted at low pressures, and the model shows good predictive performance with the remaining 88 experiment cases. However, some discrepancies in void fraction and temperature predictions are found which may require improved constitutive modeling under these low-pressure, low-flow condition. The quantified uncertainty in void fraction predictions in three forced convection benchmarks due to uncertainties in boundary conditions and geometries are relatively small, except for a few cases in the annulus experiment. The output uncertainty of the natural circulation model is quantified by considering the measurement error in boundary conditions, and it is shown that the output uncertainty ranges are relatively small for the range of conditions considered. Through this work, a clear pathway is provided for validation of RELAP7 once the code is available.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterization of Offshore Storage Resource Potential in the Central Planning Area of the Gulf of Mexico

This report contains a brief overview of the several studies that provide the basis for this work and details the reservoir characterization efforts that have been completed to date. Briefly, geological characterization data suggests that the deep-water reservoirs are the result of the interplay between turbidite depositional systems and salt tectonics. Project Partners have estimated the CO 2 storage capacity associated with saline reservoirs and that associated with CO 2 -Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) in the state waters of Louisiana. In addition, Project Partners have conducted a detailed analysis of CO 2 storage potential associated with CO 2 -EOR in the central planning area of the GOM. This work estimates that 3,140 million metric tonnes of CO 2 can be stored in optimal reservoirs of the shallow- and deep-water central GOM. A reduced order modeling and machine learning approach is introduced that will be used to evaluate CO 2 storage capacity and plume dynamics for down-selected, reservoir-specific, saline characterization. Last, a brief discussion establishes how the data presented in this report will support future work.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adaptive Framework for Maintenance Scheduling Based on Dynamic Preventive Intervals and Remaining Useful Life Estimation

Data-based prognostic methods exploit sensor data to forecast the remaining useful life (RUL) of industrial settings to optimize the scheduling of maintenance actions. However, implementing sensors may not be cost-effective or practical for all components. Traditional preventive approaches are not based on sensor data; however, they schedule maintenance at equally spaced intervals, which is not a cost-effective approach since the distribution of the time between failures changes with the degradation state of other parts or changes in working conditions. This study introduces a novel framework comprising two maintenance scheduling strategies. In the absence of sensor data, we propose a novel dynamic preventive policy that adjusts intervention intervals based on the most recent failure data. When sensor data are available, a method for RUL prediction, designated k-LSTM-GFT, is enhanced to dynamically account for RUL prediction uncertainty. The results demonstrate that dynamic preventive maintenance can yield cost reductions of up to 51.8% compared to conventional approaches. The predictive approach optimizes the exploitation of RUL, achieving costs that are only 3–5% higher than the minimum cost achievable while ensuring the safety of critical systems since all of the failures are avoided.

Nunes, Pedro (ORCID:0000000180012172)↗
NASA NTRS1977

Economic Benefits of Improved Information on Worldwide Crop Production: An Optimal Decision Model of Production and Distribution with Application to Wheat, Corn, and Soybeans

An optimal decision model of crop production, trade, and storage was developed for use in estimating the economic consequences of improved forecasts and estimates of worldwide crop production. The model extends earlier distribution benefits models to include production effects as well. Application to improved information systems meeting the goals set in the large area crop inventory experiment (LACIE) indicates annual benefits to the United States of $200 to $250 million for wheat, $50 to $100 million for corn, and $6 to $11 million for soybeans, using conservative assumptions on expected LANDSAT system performance.

Andrews, J.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Filtering algorithms for processing prefiltered measurements

The filtering algorithm for processing integral measurements is extended to include analog type prefilters with infinite memory, and to include sequential processing of prefiltered data in multi-sensor, multi-sample rate systems. The extension to infinite memory prefilters requires serial decorrelation of the prefilter output prior to state estimation. These algorithms provide a technique for investigation of prefilter parameter sensitivities, and provide optimal compensation for any information loss due to prefiltering.

Warren, A. W.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Present-day plate motions

A data set comprising 110 spreading rates, 78 transform fault azimuths and 142 earthquake slip vectors was inverted to yield a new instantaneous plate motion model, designated RM2. The mean averaging interval for the relative motion data was reduced to less than 3 My. A detailed comparison of RM2 with angular velocity vectors which best fit the data along individual plate boundaries indicates that RM2 performs close to optimally in most regions, with several notable exceptions. On the other hand, a previous estimate (RM1) failed to satisfy an extensive set of new data collected in the South Atlantic Ocean. It is shown that RM1 incorrectly predicts the plate kinematics in the South Atlantic because the presently available data are inconsistent with the plate geometry assumed in deriving RM1. It is demonstrated that this inconsistency can be remedied by postulating the existence of internal deformation with the Indian plate, although alternate explanations are possible.

Minster, J. B.↗
NASA NTRS1984

The effect of property changes on jet fuel producibility and cost

An investigation of the effect of property relaxation on jet A producibility and cost in the U.S. has been completed under NASA sponsorship by Exxon Research and Engineering Company. This presentation reviews the results obtained. Linear programming optimization models have been used. Model input included petroleum product demand and property data, estimates of crude qualities, and information on refinery processes. The time period considered was 1978 to 2010.

Varga, G. M., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Computation Of Flutter In Turbomachinery

"Direct" solution procedure supplants conventional eigenmode analysis. Iterative computational procedure yields critical mach number for onset of flutter and flutter angular frequency, of propfan, turbine with unshrouded blades, or other turbomachinery. Procedure applied to aeroelastic analysis of propfan, in which finite-element model of propfan structure combined with model of unsteady aerodynamics based on three-dimensional subsonic-lifting-surface theory. Particularly suitable for optimization in design because as optimal design evolves, flutter solution expected to change incrementally, so previous solution provides good estimates for start of current solution.

Murthy, Durbha V.↗
NASA NTRS1993

An analytic modeling and system identification study of rotor/fuselage dynamics at hover

A combination of analytic modeling and system identification methods have been used to develop an improved dynamic model describing the response of articulated rotor helicopters to control inputs. A high-order linearized model of coupled rotor/body dynamics including flap and lag degrees of freedom and inflow dynamics with literal coefficients is compared to flight test data from single rotor helicopters in the near hover trim condition. The identification problem was formulated using the maximum likelihood function in the time domain. The dynamic model with literal coefficients was used to generate the model states, and the model was parametrized in terms of physical constants of the aircraft rather than the stability derivatives resulting in a significant reduction in the number of quantities to be identified. The likelihood function was optimized using the genetic algorithm approach. This method proved highly effective in producing an estimated model from flight test data which included coupled fuselage/rotor dynamics. Using this approach it has been shown that blade flexibility is a significant contributing factor to the discrepancies between theory and experiment shown in previous studies. Addition of flexible modes, properly incorporating the constraint due to the lag dampers, results in excellent agreement between flight test and theory, especially in the high frequency range.

Hong, Steven W.↗
NASA NTRS1993

An analytic modeling and system identification study of rotor/fuselage dynamics at hover

A combination of analytic modeling and system identification methods have been used to develop an improved dynamic model describing the response of articulated rotor helicopters to control inputs. A high-order linearized model of coupled rotor/body dynamics including flap and lag degrees of freedom and inflow dynamics with literal coefficients is compared to flight test data from single rotor helicopters in the near hover trim condition. The identification problem was formulated using the maximum likelihood function in the time domain. The dynamic model with literal coefficients was used to generate the model states, and the model was parametrized in terms of physical constants of the aircraft rather than the stability derivatives, resulting in a significant reduction in the number of quantities to be identified. The likelihood function was optimized using the genetic algorithm approach. This method proved highly effective in producing an estimated model from flight test data which included coupled fuselage/rotor dynamics. Using this approach it has been shown that blade flexibility is a significant contributing factor to the discrepancies between theory and experiment shown in previous studies. Addition of flexible modes, properly incorporating the constraint due to the lag dampers, results in excellent agreement between flight test and theory, especially in the high frequency range.

Hong, Steven W.↗
NASA NTRS1999

An Efficient Objective Analysis System for Parallel Computers

A new atmospheric objective analysis system designed for parallel computers will be described. The system can produce a global analysis (on a 1 X 1 lat-lon grid with 18 levels of heights and winds and 10 levels of moisture) using 120,000 observations in 17 minutes on 32 CPUs (SGI Origin 2000). No special parallel code is needed (e.g. MPI or multitasking) and the 32 CPUs do not have to be on the same platform. The system is totally portable and can run on several different architectures at once. In addition, the system can easily scale up to 100 or more CPUS. This will allow for much higher resolution and significant increases in input data. The system scales linearly as the number of observations and the number of grid points. The cost overhead in going from 1 to 32 CPUs is 18%. In addition, the analysis results are identical regardless of the number of processors used. This system has all the characteristics of optimal interpolation, combining detailed instrument and first guess error statistics to produce the best estimate of the atmospheric state. Static tests with a 2 X 2.5 resolution version of this system showed it's analysis increments are comparable to the latest NASA operational system including maintenance of mass-wind balance. Results from several months of cycling test in the Goddard EOS Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS) show this new analysis retains the same level of agreement between the first guess and observations (O-F statistics) as the current operational system.

Stobie, J.↗
NASA NTRS1999

An Efficient Objective Analysis System for Parallel Computers

A new objective analysis system designed for parallel computers will be described. The system can produce a global analysis (on a 2 x 2.5 lat-lon grid with 20 levels of heights and winds and 10 levels of moisture) using 120,000 observations in less than 3 minutes on 32 CPUs (SGI Origin 2000). No special parallel code is needed (e.g. MPI or multitasking) and the 32 CPUs do not have to be on the same platform. The system Ls totally portable and can run on -several different architectures at once. In addition, the system can easily scale up to 100 or more CPUS. This will allow for much higher resolution and significant increases in input data. The system scales linearly as the number of observations and the number of grid points. The cost overhead in going from I to 32 CPus is 18%. in addition, the analysis results are identical regardless of the number of processors used. T'his system has all the characteristics of optimal interpolation, combining detailed instrument and first guess error statistics to produce the best estimate of the atmospheric state. It also includes a new quality control (buddy check) system. Static tests with the system showed it's analysis increments are comparable to the latest NASA operational system including maintenance of mass-wind balance. Results from a 2-month cycling test in the Goddard EOS Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS) show this new analysis retains the same level of agreement between the first guess and observations (0-F statistics) throughout the entire two months.

Stobie, James G.↗
NASA NTRS2003

A Bayesian Approach to Sensor Characterization

The physical model of a generic electro-optic sensor is derived and incorporated into a Bayesian framework for the estimation of key instrument parameters from calibration data. The sensor characterization thus achieved enables optimal subsequent removal of instrument effects from field data, leading to the highest possible accuracy in the retrieved physical quantities.

Timucin, Dogan A.↗