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DOE OSTI2026

A Hybrid Biophysical‐Machine Learning Framework for Diurnal Surface Energy Flux Estimation Using Proximal Sensing

Thermal infrared-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy ( LE ) and sensible heat ( H ) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal infrared data sets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of a ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R 2 = 0.81–0.94) and H (R 2 = 0.46–0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical-machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

evapotranspiration↗

DOE OSTI2026

Realization of fermionic Laughlin state on a quantum processor

Strongly correlated topological phases of matter are central to modern condensed matter physics and quantum information technology but often challenging to probe and control in material systems. The experimental difficulty of accessing these phases has motivated the use of engineered quantum platforms for simulation and manipulation of exotic topological states. Among these, the Laughlin state stands as a cornerstone for topological matter, embodying fractionalization, anyonic excitations, and incompressibility. Although its bosonic analogs have been realized on programmable quantum simulators, a genuine fermionic Laughlin state has yet to be demonstrated on a quantum processor. Here, we realize the ν = 1/3 fermionic Laughlin state on IonQ’s trapped-ion quantum computer using an efficient and scalable Hamiltonian variational ansatz with 369 two-qubit gates on a 16-qubit circuit. Employing symmetry-verification error mitigation, we extract key observables that characterize the Laughlin state, including correlation hole, bulk-edge correspondence, and topological entanglement entropy, with strong agreement to exact diagonalization benchmarks. This work demonstrates an end-to-end workflow to simulate material-intrinsic topological orders and provides a starting point to explore its dynamics and excitations on digital quantum processors.

Shen, Lingnan [Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (U↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data Quality Assessment Process for Real-Time Data-Driven Traffic Microsimulation of Smart Corridor

Smart corridor digital twins are often created for the development and evaluation of emerging intelligent transportation systems and Connected and Autonomous Vehicle (CAV) technologies. However, limited guidance exists for data quality assessment for digital twin development. To address this, this paper discusses the data quality assessment utilized to develop data-driven real-time microscopic simulation models, i.e., digital twins, for two separate smart corridors: the North Avenue Smart Corridor in Atlanta, GA, and the Martin Luther King Smart Corridor in Chattanooga, Tennessee. This paper provides a summary of the author’s investigations of data requirements and data characteristics for the given smart corridor digital twin development efforts. With a focus on data, this summary includes a description of the data investigation process, key data issues observed, and strategies to address observed issues. Discussion is provided to help expand the lessons from these studies to other digital twin development efforts.

Saroj, Abhilasha [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000191178063)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Structural disorder, sublattice melting, and thermo-elastic properties of anti-perovskite Li 3 OBr under high pressure and temperature

Here, in situ synchrotron x-ray diffraction experiments were conducted in the system Li-O-Br at pressures up to 6.5 GPa and temperatures up to the melting points. The thermal equation of state determined from the P–V–T measurements indicates that crystalline anti-perovskite Li 3 OBr exhibits similar thermo-elastic properties to common salts. At temperatures that are 50–75 °C below the crystal melting, a pre-melting behavior was inferred based on weakened Bragg intensity and a substantial increase in the diffuse scattering. Concurrent with the onset of pre-melting, an anomalous increase in the lattice volume was observed and is interpreted as anion sublattice disorder. These findings support previous ab initio molecular dynamics simulations based on a simple anion interchange mechanism, indicating that structural disorder below crystal melting temperature can be a main driving force for Li-sublattice melting and superionic transition in the Li 3 OBr anti-perovskite.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Robustness of neutron star merger simulations to changes in neutrino transport and neutrino-matter interactions

Binary neutron star mergers play an important role in nuclear astrophysics: Their gravitational wave and electromagnetic signals carry information about the equation of state of cold matter above nuclear saturation density, and they may be one of the main sources of r-process elements in the Universe. Neutrino-matter interactions during and after merger impact the properties of these electromagnetic signals and the relative abundances of the produced r-process elements. Existing merger simulations are, however, limited in their ability to realistically model neutrino transport and neutrino-matter interactions. Here, we perform a comparison of the impact of the use of state-of-the art two-moment or Monte Carlo transport schemes on the outcome of merger simulations, for a single binary neutron star system with a short-lived neutron star remnant [(5–10) ms]. We also investigate the use of different reaction rates in the simulations. While the best transport schemes generally agree well on the qualitative impact of neutrinos on the system, differences in the behavior of the high-density regions can significantly impact the collapse time and the properties of the hot tidal arms in this metastable merger remnant. The chosen interaction rates and transport algorithm as well as recent improvements by Radice et al. to the two-moment algorithms can all contribute to changes at the (10–30)% level in the global properties of the merger remnant and outflows. Furthermore, the limitations of previous moment schemes fixed by Radice et al. also appear sufficient to explain the large difference that we observed in the production of heavy-lepton neutrinos in a previous comparison of Monte Carlo and moment schemes in the context of a low-mass binary neutron star system.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Exploring Proton Activity at the Membrane/Electrode Interface with Microelectrodes

Microelectrode measurements using a polycrystalline platinum microelectrode were used to simulate the membrane/electrode interface of a membrane-electrode-assembly (MEA) architecture. The proton activity for the hydrogen-evolution reaction (HER) was evaluated for 40, 60, and 80% relative humidity. Proton activity was calculated to be 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 for 40, 60, and 80% relative humidity, respectively, using open circuit potential measurements between Nafion 211 and 1 molal HClO 4 . The fraction of protons which dissociate at a given relative humidity condition appears to be a distinctive factor in proton activity for Nafion 211 compared to an aqueous electrolyte. In conclusion, the microelectrode measurements exhibited a Tafel slope of ~120 mV/dec, similar to that observed for platinum in MEA systems, demonstrating that kinetic measurements made with microelectrodes can be representative of MEA kinetics.

Anderson, Grace C.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Effects of surface diffusion in electrocatalytic CO 2 reduction on Cu revealed by kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

We report Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) methods are frequently used for mechanistic studies of thermally driven heterogeneous catalysis systems but are underused for electrocatalysis. Here, we develop a lattice KMC approach for electrocatalytic CO 2 reduction. The work is motivated by a prior experimental report that performed electroreduction of a mixed feed of 12 CO 2 and 13 CO on Cu; differences in the 13 C content of C2 products ethylene and ethanol (Δ 13 C) were interpreted as evidence of site selectivity. The lattice KMC model considers the effect of surface diffusion on this system. In the limit of infinitely fast diffusion (mean-field approximation), the key intermediates 12 CO* and 13 CO* would be well mixed on the surface and no evidence of site selectivity could have been observed. Using a simple two-site model and adapting a previously reported microkinetic model, we assess the effects of diffusion on the relative isotope fractions in the products using the estimated surface diffusion rate of CO* from literature reports. We find that the size of the active sites and the total surface adsorbate coverage can have a large influence on the values of Δ 13 C that can be observed. Δ 13 C is less sensitive to the CO* diffusion rate as long as it is within the estimated range. We further offer possible methods to estimate surface distribution of intermediates and to predict intrinsic selectivity of active sites based on experimental observations. This work illustrates the importance of considering surface diffusion in the study of electrochemical CO 2 reduction to multi-carbon products. Our approach is entirely based on a freely available open-source code, so will be readily adaptable to other electrocatalytic systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Residential Vehicle-to-Home Backup Power Capabilities: Key Findings from a ComEd Beneficial Electrification R&D Pilot

This report summarizes key findings from a collaborative technical study of residential, non-grid-tied vehicle-to-home (V2H) backup power systems in Commonwealth Edison’s (ComEd’s) service territory. The work integrates (1) a feeder-level technoeconomic analysis (TEA) using historical outage-event data and simulated electric-vehicle (EV) driving/charging profiles to estimate potential reliability and customer interruption-cost impacts under V2H and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) adoption scenarios; (2) controlled laboratory performance testing of a representative V2H backup ecosystem to characterize transfer-to-backup behavior, sustained power delivery, efficiency trends, and repeatable reliability limitations; and (3) a cybersecurity assessment aligned with NIST Cybersecurity Framework (CSF) 2.0 and ISO/SAE 21434 to evaluate interface-level risk drivers and identify program-relevant mitigations. Results indicate that V2H can provide measurable resilience value, but outcomes are strongly context dependent on outage patterns and the share of events that are “V2H-applicable.” Typical transfer-to-backup behavior clustered on the order of minutes, but rare long-delay edge cases were observed (including an event approaching 30 minutes) and should be treated as a reliability risk. High-power testing showed that peak-rated output is not necessarily continuously deliverable; stable operation may require operation below nameplate ratings and attention to thermal and installation constraints. The cybersecurity assessment highlights a broad attack surface spanning commissioning, home networks, embedded services, and cloud/OTA pathways, motivating minimum controls for secure onboarding, signed updates, patch cadence, and coordinated vulnerability response for any scaled deployment.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Investigating the influence of particle distribution on force and torque statistics using hierarchical machine learning

An accurate representation of hydrodynamic force and torque experienced by every particle in a distribution can be obtained from particle resolved (PR) simulations. These unique quantities are influenced by the deterministic position of surrounding particles. However, systems simulated with this methodology are typically limited to particles due to the involved computational cost. This resource requirement is a major bottleneck in analyzing the effect of variations in particle distribution. Here, this article attempts to address this bottleneck by availing relatively inexpensive deep learning models. The surrogate models that we employ in this article use a physics‐based hierarchical framework and symmetry‐preserving neural networks to achieve robustness with limited training data. This article first performs additional generalizability tests on PR data of distinct distributions that are not involved in the training process. The models are then deployed on several different particle distributions. Impact of clustering and structure on the observed statistics are investigated.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Tribochemical Conversion of Methane to Graphene and Other Carbon Nanostructures: Implications for Friction and Wear

Tribochemistry involves chemical reactions occurring at sliding contact interfaces in the presence of gaseous and/or liquid media. It often leads to the formation of a solid reaction film (also termed boundary film) which controls friction and wear and hence the efficiency and reliability of moving mechanical systems (such as engines). Here we demonstrate tribochemical conversion of methane to graphene, nano-onion, and disordered carbons on the sliding surfaces of Ni-, Cu-, and CuNi-containing VN coatings at atmospheric pressure and room temperature, providing 2-3 orders of magnitude reduction in wear and similar to 50% reduction in friction compared to those of the uncoated steels. Transmission electron microscopy confirms that graphene forms preferably on metal rich nanoclusters of the composite coatings, while the carbon nano-onions are scattered throughout the carbon tribofilm. Ab initio molecular dynamics simulations elucidate underlying mechanisms involved in the tribochemical conversion of methane to carbon- based nanostructures in support of microscopic observations. These scientific findings may lead to new materials technologies that can use methane as a source for continuous and in situ lubrication. For example, there is an urgent need to curtail the uses of lubricating oils in natural gas compressors and engines as they contaminate the natural gas being compressed or burnt.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Rigorous Oxidation State Assignments for Supported Ga-Containing Catalysts Using Theory-Informed X-ray Absorption Spectroscopy Signatures from Well-Defined Ga(I) and Ga(III) Compounds

Gallium-based heterogeneous catalysts originally developed for commercial use in propane dehydroaromatization have been explored extensively as potential replacements for Pt- and Cr-based catalysts used in propane dehydrogenation for on-demand propylene production. In a large number of experimental and theoretical studies, active sites with a variety of Ga nuclearities, coordination environments, and oxidation states have been proposed. Isolated Ga(I) ions are often invoked, despite the scarcity of well-defined molecular species and their well-documented instability. In this study, we investigate the appearance of a high-intensity, low-energy white line at the Ga K-edge upon reduction of Ga/HZSM-5 by H 2 at a temperature of ca. 500 °C, accompanied by a dramatic reduction in the extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) intensity. In contrast, Ga/γ-Al 2 O 3 does not show such behavior. In order to lay a rigorous foundation for characterizing these types of systems and to establish experimental signatures for the elusive Ga(I) oxidation state, we recorded Ga K-edge X-ray absorption spectra [including high-energy-resolution fluorescence detection-X-ray absorption near-edge spectroscopy (HERFD-XANES)] for several well-defined molecular and crystalline Ga(I) compounds. XANES is essential to establishing the presence of Ga(I), despite the overlap in edge energies with organoGa(III) compounds, because Ga(I)-containing oxide materials show very weak EXAFS scattering. Compared to the XANES of trigonal Ga(III)-containing materials, Ga(I) spectra display a significantly more intense white line feature. Theoretical simulations agree well with this experimental observation and reveal that the strong XANES intensity originates from the superposition of transitions to several empty, nearly degenerate p-like states. Finally, these signatures provide compelling evidence for assigning the intense white line and dramatic loss of EXAFS intensity in Ga/HZSM-5 to the near-quantitative reduction of Ga(III) to Ga(I), while the weaker white line and conventional EXAFS signal of Ga/γ-Al 2 O 3 point to, at most, a minor fraction of Ga(I) sites.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

Crossover from Rouse to Reptation Dynamics in Salt-Free Polyelectrolyte Complex Coacervates

Considerable interest in the dynamics and rheology of polyelectrolyte complex coacervates has been motivated by their industrial application as viscosity modifiers. A central question is the extent to which classical Rouse and reptation models can be applied to systems where electrostatic interactions play a critical role on the thermodynamics. By relying on molecular simulations, we present a direct analysis of the crossover from Rouse to reptation dynamics in salt-free complex coacervates as a function of chain length. This crossover shifts to shorter chain lengths as electrostatic interactions become stronger, which corresponds to the formation of denser coacervates. To distinguish the roles of Coulomb interactions and density, here we compare the dynamics of coacervates to those of neutral, semidilute solutions at the same density. Both systems exhibit a universal dynamical behavior in the connectivity-dominated (subdiffusion and normal diffusion) regimes, but the monomer relaxation time in coacervates is much longer and increases with increasing Bjerrum length. This is similar to the cage effect observed in glass-forming polymers, but the local dynamical slowdown is caused here by strong Coulomb attractions (ion pairing) between oppositely charged monomers. Our findings provide a microscopic framework for the quantitative understanding of coacervate dynamics and rheology.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Revealing the Statistics of Extreme Events Hidden in Short Weather Forecast Data

Extreme weather events have significant consequences, dominating the impact of climate on society. While high-resolution weather models can forecast many types of extreme events on synoptic timescales, long-term climatological risk assessment is an altogether different problem. A once-in-a-century event takes, on average, 100 years of simulation time to appear just once, far beyond the typical integration length of a weather forecast model. Therefore, this task is left to cheaper, but less accurate, low-resolution or statistical models. But there is untapped potential in weather model output: despite being short in duration, weather forecast ensembles are produced multiple times a week. Integrations are launched with independent perturbations, causing them to spread apart over time and broadly sample phase space. Collectively, these integrations add up to thousands of years of data. We establish methods to extract climatological information from these short weather simulations. Using ensemble hindcasts by the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasting archived in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) database, we characterize sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events with multi-centennial return times. Consistent results are found between alternative methods, including basic counting strategies and Markov state modeling. By carefully combining trajectories together, we obtain estimates of SSW frequencies and their seasonal distributions that are consistent with reanalysis-derived estimates for moderately rare events, but with much tighter uncertainty bounds, and which can be extended to events of unprecedented severity that have not yet been observed historically. These methods hold potential for assessing extreme events throughout the climate system, beyond this example of stratospheric extremes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Different Strategies of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Would Significantly Affect Climate Extreme Mitigation

Abstract Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) has been proposed as a potential supplement to mitigate some climate impacts of anthropogenic warming. Using Community Earth System Model ensemble simulation results, we analyze the response of temperature and precipitation extremes to two different SAI strategies: one injects SO 2 at the equator to stabilize global mean temperature and the other injects SO 2 at multiple locations to stabilize global mean temperature as well as the interhemispheric and equator‐to‐pole temperature gradients. Our analysis shows that in the late 21st century, compared with the present‐day climate, both equatorial and multi‐location injection lead to reduced hot extremes in the tropics, corresponding to overcooling of the mean climate state. In mid‐to‐high latitude regions, in comparison to the present‐day climate, substantial decreases in cold extremes are observed under both equatorial and multi‐location injection, corresponding to residual winter warming of the mean climate state. Both equatorial and multi‐location injection reduce precipitation extremes in the tropics below the present‐day level, associated with the decrease in mean precipitation. Overall, for most regions, temperature and precipitation extremes show reduced change in response to multi‐location injection than to equatorial injection, corresponding to reduced mean climate change for multi‐location injection. In comparison with equatorial injection, in response to multi‐location injection, most land regions experience fewer years with significant change in cold extremes from the present‐day level, and most tropical regions experience fewer years with significant change in hot extremes. The design of SAI strategies to mitigate anthropogenic climate extremes merits further study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Integrating crop growth models with remote sensing for predicting biomass yield of sorghum

Abstract Plant phenotypes are often descriptive, rather than predictive of crop performance. As a result, extensive testing is required in plant breeding programmes to develop varieties aimed at performance in the target environments. Crop models can improve this testing regime by providing a predictive framework to (i) augment field phenotyping data and derive hard-to-measure phenotypes and (ii) estimate performance across geographical regions using historical weather data. The goal of this study was to parameterize the Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) crop growth models with remote-sensing and ground-reference data to predict variation in phenology and yield-related traits in 18 commercial grain and biomass sorghum hybrids. Genotype parameters for each hybrid were estimated using remote-sensing measurements combined with manual phenotyping in West Lafayette, IN, in 2018. The models were validated in hybrid performance trials in two additional seasons at that site and against yield trials conducted in Bushland, TX, between 2001 and 2018. These trials demonstrated that (i) maximum plant height, final dry biomass and radiation use efficiency (RUE) of photoperiod-sensitive and -insensitive forage sorghum hybrids tended to be higher than observed in grain sorghum, (ii) photoperiod-sensitive sorghum hybrids exhibited greater biomass production in longer growing environments and (iii) the parameterized and validated models perform well in above-ground biomass simulations across years and locations. Crop growth models that integrate remote-sensing data offer an efficient approach to parameterize larger plant breeding populations.

Yang, Kai-Wei↗

DOE OSTI2022

Nonlinear quantum behavior of ultrashort-pulse optical parametric oscillators

The quantum features of ultrashort-pulse optical parametric oscillators (OPOs) are investigated theoretically in the nonlinear regime near and above threshold. Viewing the pulsed OPO as a multimode open quantum system, we rigorously derive a general input-output model that features nonlinear coupling among many cavity (i.e., system) signal modes and a broadband single-pass (i.e., reservoir) pump field. Under appropriate assumptions, our model produces a Lindblad master equation with multimode nonlinear Lindblad operators describing two-photon dissipation and a multimode four-wave-mixing Hamiltonian describing a broadband, dispersive optical cascade, which we show is required to preserve causality. To simplify the multimode complexity of the model, we employ a supermode decomposition to perform numerical simulations in the regime where the pulsed supermodes experience strong single-photon nonlinearity. We find that the quantum nonlinear dynamics induces pump depletion as well as corrections to the below-threshold squeezing spectrum predicted by linearized models. We also observe the formation of non-Gaussian states with Wigner-function negativity and show that the multimode interactions with the pump, both dissipative and dispersive, can act as effective decoherence channels. Finally, we briefly discuss some experimental considerations for potentially observing such quantum nonlinear phenomena with ultrashort-pulse OPOs on nonlinear nanophotonic platforms.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-Resolution Regional Atmosphere–Ocean–Wave Coupled Simulations of Hurricane Henri (2021)

To explore the integrated effects of ocean and ocean surface wave related physical processes on TC simulations, a set of three model simulations is performed. * In experiment 'A', the event is modeled using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model alone with prescribed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) at 6-hour intervals. * In experiment ‘AO,’ WRF is coupled with the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM), enabling variable exchange between atmosphere and ocean, but without considering ocean surface wave-related physical processes. * In experiment ‘AOW’, WRF, FVCOM, and Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) exchange variables with each other every hour through the OASIS3-MCT Coupler to allow direct and indirect atmosphere-ocean-wave interactions. * Observational data are also included in this dataset (Dropsonde, HRD-Radar, NDBC_wave). All simulations are initialized at 18:00 UTC on August 19, 2021, within a domain encompassing the western North Atlantic Ocean. The atmospheric domain features a horizontal resolution of 3 km. The ocean domain, which covers a substantial portion of the WRF ocean domain, employs an unstructured triangular grid with resolutions ranging from 3 km near the coast to 9 km in the open ocean, effectively resolving the complex coastline of the U.S. Northeast Coast. Initial and boundary conditions for the atmosphere model are obtained from the 6-hourly 0.25° NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) Global Forecast System (GFS; NCEP, 2015) data.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-Resolution Regional Atmosphere–Ocean–Wave Coupled Simulations of Hurricane Henri (2021)

17 WIND ENERGY↗