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[Clinical and physiological evaluation of bone changes among astronauts after long-term space flights]

Results of the joint Russian/US studies of the effect of microgravity on bone tissues in 18 cosmonauts on return from 4.5- to 14.5-month long missions are presented. Dual-energy x-ray gamma-absorbtiometry (QDR-1000 W, Hologic, USA) was used to measure bone mineral density (BMD, g/cm2) and mineral content (BMC, g) in the whole body, the scalp including cervical vertebra, arms, ribs, sternal and lumbar regions of the spinal column, pelvis and legs. A clearly defined dependence of topography of changes upon the position of a skeletal segment in the gravity vector was established. The greatest BMD losses have been observed in the skeleton of the lower body, i.e. in pelvic bones (-11.99 +/- 1.22%), lumbar vertebra (-5.63 +/- 0.817%), and in proximal femur, particularly in the femoral neck (-8.17 +/- 1.24%). Bones of the upper skeleton were either unchanged (insignificant) or showed a positive trend. Overall changes in bone mass of the whole skeleton of male cosmonauts during the period of about 6 months on mission made up -1.41 +/- 0.406% and suggest the mean balance of calcium over flight equal to -227 +/- 62.8 mg/day. Reasoning is given to qualify these states of cosmonauts' bone tissues as local osteopenia. On the literature and results of authors' clinical evidence, discussed is availability of the densitometric data for predicting risk of trauma. A biological nature of the changes under observation is hypothesized.

NASA Discipline Musculoskeletal↗

An Algorithm for the Transport of Anisotropic Neutrons

One major obstacle to human space exploration is the possible limitations imposed by the adverse effect of long-term exposure to the space environment. Even before human spaceflight began, the potentially brief exposure of astronauts to the very intense random solar particle events (SPE) were of great concern. A new challenge appears in deep space exploration from exposure to the low-intensity heavy-ion flux of the galactic cosmic rays (GCR) since the missions are of long duration and the accumulated GCR exposures can be high. Because cancer induction rates increase behind low to rather large thicknesses of aluminum shielding, according to available biological data on mammalian exposures to GCR like ions, the shield requirements for a Mars mission are prohibitively expensive in terms of mission launch costs. Therefore, a critical issue in the Human Exploration and Development of Space enterprise is cost effective mitigation of risk associated with ionizing radiation exposure. In order to estimate astronaut risk to GCR exposure and associated cancer risks and health hazards, it is necessary to do shield material studies. To determine an optimum radiation shield material it is necessary to understand nuclear interaction processes such as fragmentation and secondary particle production which is a function of energy dependent cross sections. This requires knowledge of material transmission characteristics either through laboratory testing or improved theoretical modeling. Here ion beam transport theory is of importance in that testing of materials in the laboratory environment generated by particle accelerators is a necessary step in materials development and evaluation for space use. The approximations used in solving the Boltzmann transport equation for the space setting are often not sufficient for laboratory work and those issues are a major emphasis of the present work.

Tweed, J.↗

The nutritional status of astronauts is altered after long-term space flight aboard the International Space Station

Defining optimal nutrient requirements is critical for ensuring crew health during long-duration space exploration missions. Data pertaining to such nutrient requirements are extremely limited. The primary goal of this study was to better understand nutritional changes that occur during long-duration space flight. We examined body composition, bone metabolism, hematology, general blood chemistry, and blood levels of selected vitamins and minerals in 11 astronauts before and after long-duration (128-195 d) space flight aboard the International Space Station. Dietary intake and limited biochemical measures were assessed during flight. Crew members consumed a mean of 80% of their recommended energy intake, and on landing day their body weight was less (P = 0.051) than before flight. Hematocrit, serum iron, ferritin saturation, and transferrin were decreased and serum ferritin was increased after flight (P < 0.05). The finding that other acute-phase proteins were unchanged after flight suggests that the changes in iron metabolism are not likely to be solely a result of an inflammatory response. Urinary 8-hydroxy-2'-deoxyguanosine concentration was greater and RBC superoxide dismutase was less after flight (P < 0.05), indicating increased oxidative damage. Despite vitamin D supplement use during flight, serum 25-hydroxycholecalciferol was decreased after flight (P < 0.01). Bone resorption was increased after flight, as indicated by several markers. Bone formation, assessed by several markers, did not consistently rise 1 d after landing. These data provide evidence that bone loss, compromised vitamin D status, and oxidative damage are among critical nutritional concerns for long-duration space travelers.

Space Flight↗

The Physical Nature of the Sharp Spectral Feature at 7 keV Detected in 1H0707-495

XMM-Newton acquired data on the accepted target, 1H0707-495, on 2002 October 13 during revolution 0521. The observation was successful, with only about 5% data loss due to background flaring. We compared the data from this observation with earlier data taken on this Narrow-Line Seyfert 1 about two years before, performing interpretation studies in the context of the partial-covering model. Our second longer observation once again displays a sharp (< 200 eV) spectral drop above 7 keV. However, in comparison to the first observation, the edge depth and energy have changed significantly. In addition to changes in the edge parameters, the high-energy spectrum appears steeper. The changes in the high-energy spectrum can be adequately explained in terms of a partial-covering absorber out-flowing from the central region. The low-energy spectrum also shows significant long-term spectral variability, including (1) a substantial increase in the disk temperature, (2) detection of an approx. 0.9 keV emission feature, and (3) the presence of ionized absorption that was detected during the ASCA mission. The large increase in disk temperature, and the more modest rise in luminosity, can be understood if we consider a slim-disk model for 1H0707-495. In addition, the higher disk luminosity could be the driving force behind the outflow and the re-appearance of an ionized medium during the second XMM-Newton observation.

Brandt, Niel↗

Bone Markers, Calcium Metabolism, and Calcium Kinetics During Extended-Duration Space Flight on the Mir Space Station

Bone loss is a current limitation for long-term space exploration. Bone markers, calcitropic hormones, and calcium kinetics of crew members on space missions of 4-6 months were evaluated. Spaceflight-induced bone loss was associated with increased bone resorption and decreased calcium absorption. INTRODUCTION: Bone loss is a significant concern for the health of astronauts on long-duration missions. Defining the time course and mechanism of these changes will aid in developing means to counteract these losses during space flight and will have relevance for other clinical situations that impair weight-bearing activity. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We report here results from two studies conducted during the Shuttle-Mir Science Program. Study 1 was an evaluation of bone and calcium biochemical markers of 13 subjects before and after long-duration (4-6 months) space missions. In study 2, stable calcium isotopes were used to evaluate calcium metabolism in six subjects before, during, and after flight. Relationships between measures of bone turnover, biochemical markers, and calcium kinetics were examined. RESULTS: Pre- and postflight study results confirmed that, after landing, bone resorption was increased, as indicated by increases in urinary calcium (p < 0.05) and collagen cross-links (N-telopeptide, pyridinoline, and deoxypyridinoline were all increased >55% above preflight levels, p < 0.001). Parathyroid hormone and vitamin D metabolites were unchanged at landing. Biochemical markers of bone formation were unchanged at landing, but 2-3 weeks later, both bone-specific alkaline phosphatase and osteocalcin were significantly (p < 0.01) increased above preflight levels. In studies conducted during flight, bone resorption markers were also significantly higher than before flight. The calcium kinetic data also validated that bone resorption was increased during flight compared with preflight values (668 +/- 130 versus 427 +/- 153 mg/day; p < 0.001) and clearly documented that true intestinal calcium absorption was significantly lower during flight compared with preflight values (233 +/- 87 versus 460 +/- 47 mg/day; p < 0.01). Weightlessness had a detrimental effect on the balance in bone turnover such that the daily difference in calcium retention during flight compared with preflight values approached 300 mg/day (-234 +/- 102 versus 63 +/- 75 mg/day; p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: These bone marker and calcium kinetic studies indicated that the bone loss that occurs during space flight is a consequence of increased bone resorption and decreased intestinal calcium absorption.

Bone and Bones/metabolism/pathology↗

Very Long Term Oxidation of Titanium Aluminides Investigated

Titanium aluminides (TiAl) are of great interest for intermediate-temperature (600 to 850 C) aerospace and power-generation applications because they offer significant weight savings over today's nickel alloys. TiAl alloys are being investigated for low-pressure turbine blade applications, exhaust nozzle components, and compressor cases in advanced subsonic and supersonic engines. Significant progress has been made in understanding the fundamental aspects of the oxidation behavior of binary TiAl alloys. However, most of this work has concentrated on short term (<1000 hr), high-temperature (900 to 1000 C) exposures. Also, there is not much data available in the literature regarding the oxidation behavior of the quaternary and higher order engineering alloys. This is especially true for the very long term, low-temperature conditions likely to be experienced during aerospace applications. An investigation at the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field was undertaken to characterize the long-term oxidation behavior of various model and advanced titanium aluminides for periods up to 7000 hr at 704 C in air using a high-resolution field emission scanning electron microscope. Also, a unique surface treatment technique developed to improve the oxidation resistance of TiAl was evaluated. The alloys included in this investigation are listed in the table. The table also shows typical alloy compositions and the specific weight changes and scale thickness measured for each alloy after exposure to 700 C for 7000 hr in air.

Locci, Ivan E.↗

Long-Term Durability of a Matrix for High-Temperature Composites Predicted

Polymer matrix composites (PMC's) are being increasingly used in applications where they are exposed for long durations to harsh environments such as elevated temperatures, moisture, oils and solvents, and thermal cycling. The exposure to these environments leads to the degradation of structures made from these materials. This also affects the useful lifetimes of these structures. Some of the more prominent aerospace applications of polymer matrix composites include engine supports and cowlings, reusable launch vehicle parts, radomes, thrust-vectoring flaps, and the thermal insulation of rocket motors. This demand has led to efforts to develop lightweight, high-strength, high-modulus materials that have upper-use temperatures over 316 C. A cooperative program involving two grants to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and in-house work at the NASA Glenn Research Center was conducted to identify the mechanisms and the measurement of mechanical and physical properties that are necessary to formulate a mechanism-based model for predicting the lifetime of high-temperature polymer matrix composites. The polymer that was studied was PMR-15 polyimide, a leading matrix resin for use in high-temperature-resistant aerospace composite structures such as propulsion systems. The temperature range that was studied was from 125 to 316 C. The diffusion behavior of PMR-15 neat resin was characterized and modeled. Thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) was also conducted in nitrogen, oxygen, and air to provide quantitative information on thermal and oxidative degradation reactions. A new low-cost technique was developed to collect chemical degradation data for isothermal tests lasting up to 4000 hr in duration. In the temperature range studied, results indicate complex behavior that was not observed by previous TGA tests, including the presence of weight-gain reactions. These were found to be significant in the initial periods of aging from 125 to 225 C. Two types of weight loss reactions dominated at aging temperatures above 225 C. One was concentrated at the surface of the polymer and was very active at temperatures above 225 C. The second was observed to dominate in the latter stages of aging at temperatures below 260 C. This three-reaction model satisfactorily explains past findings that the degradation mechanism of PMR-15 appears to change around 316 C. It also indicates that the second weight gain mechanism is a significant factor at temperatures below 204 C. On the basis of these results, a predictive model was developed for the thermal degradation of PMR-15 at 316 C. A comparison of data generated by this model with actual experimental data is shown in the following figure.

Bowles, Kenneth J.↗

XMM-Newton Spectroscopy of the X-ray Detected Broad Absorption Line QSO CSO 755

We present the results from XMM-Newton observations of the highly optically polarized broad absorption line quasar (BALQSO) CSO 755. By analyzing its X-ray spectrum with a total of approximately 3000 photons we find that this source has an X-ray continuum of "typical" radio-quiet quasars, with a photon index of Gamma=1.83, and a rather flat (X-ray bright) intrinsic optical-to-X-ray spectral slope of alpha_ox=- 1.51. The source shows evidence for intrinsic absorption, and fitting the spectrum with a neutral-absorption model gives a column density of N_H approximately 1.2x10^22 cm^{-2}; this is among the lowest X-ray columns measured for BALQSOs. We do not detect, with high significance, any other absorption features in the X-ray spectrum. Upper limits we place on the rest-frame equivalent width of a neutral (ionized) Fe K-alpha line, less than =180 eV (less than =120 eV), and on the Compton-reflection component parameter, R less than =0.2, suggest that most of the X-rays from the source are directly observed rather than being scattered or reflected; this is also supported by the relatively flat intrinsic alpha ox we measure. The possibility that most of the X-ray flux is scattered due to the high level of UV-optical polarization is ruled out. Considering data for 46 BALQSOs from the literature, including CSO 755, we have found that the UV-optical continuum polarization level of BALQSOs is not correlated with any of their X-ray properties. A lack of significant short-term and long-term X-ray flux variations in the source may be attributed to a large black-hole mass in CSO 755. We note that another luminous BALQSO, PG 2112+059, has both similar shallow C IV BALs and moderate X-ray absorption.

Brandt, Niel↗

Resistively-Heated Microlith-based Adsorber for Carbon Dioxide and Trace Contaminant Removal

An integrated sorber-based Trace Contaminant Control System (TCCS) and Carbon Dioxide Removal Assembly (CDRA) prototype was designed, fabricated and tested. It corresponds to a 7-person load. Performance over several adsorption/regeneration cycles was examined. Vacuum regenerations at effective time/temperature conditions, and estimated power requirements were experimentally verified for the combined CO2/trace contaminant removal prototype. The current paper details the design and performance of this prototype during initial testing at CO2 and trace contaminant concentrations in the existing CDRA, downstream of the drier. Additional long-term performance characterization is planned at NASA. Potential system design options permitting associated weight, volume savings and logistic benefits, especially as relevant for long-duration space flight, are reviewed. The technology consisted of a sorption bed with sorbent- coated metal meshes, trademarked and patented as Microlith by Precision Combustion, Inc. (PCI). By contrast the current CO2 removal system on the International Space Station employs pellet beds. Preliminary bench scale performance data (without direct resistive heating) for simultaneous CO2 and trace contaminant removal was reviewed in SAE 2004-01-2442. In the prototype, the meshes were directly electrically heated for rapid response and accurate temperature control. This allowed regeneration via resistive heating with the potential for shorter regeneration times, reduced power requirement, and net energy savings vs. conventional systems. A novel flow arrangement, for removing both CO2 and trace contaminants within the same bed, was demonstrated. Thus, the need for a separate trace contaminant unit was eliminated resulting in an opportunity for significant weight savings. Unlike the current disposable charcoal bed, zeolites for trace contaminant removal are amenable to periodic regeneration.

Roychoudhury, S.↗

Evaluation of NASA Data Products for RPO Applications

This presentation summarizes preliminary investigations at SSC by NASA's ASD in Air Quality including decision support tools, partner plans, working groups, and committees. An overview of follow-on short-term and long-term objectives is also provided. A table of potential NASA sensors for use with air quality applications is included, along with specifications for MODIS 04 and 06 products. This presentation was originally given by Rich Piorot of the Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation - Air Quality as part of a round-table discussion during "Exploring Collaborative Opportunities in Air Quality Monitoring, Modelling and Communication Workshop" in Boulder, CO, on March 21-22, 2005; verbal consent for this presentation to be provided to Mr. Piorot was given by the NASA SSC ASD Air Quality Program Manager on March 14, 2005.

Frisbie, Troy↗

Assessment of Technologies for the Space Shuttle External Tank Thermal Protection System and Recommendations for Technology Improvement - Part III: Material Property Characterization, Analysis, and Test Methods

The objective of this report is to contribute to the independent assessment of the Space Shuttle External Tank Foam Material. This report specifically addresses material modeling, characterization testing, data reduction methods, and data pedigree. A brief description of the External Tank foam materials, locations, and standard failure modes is provided to develop suitable background information. A review of mechanics based analysis methods from the open literature is used to provide an assessment of the state-of-the-art in material modeling of closed cell foams. Further, this report assesses the existing material property database and investigates sources of material property variability. The report presents identified deficiencies in testing methods and procedures, recommendations for additional testing as required, identification of near-term improvements that should be pursued, and long-term capabilities or enhancements that should be developed.

Gates, Thomas S.↗

(abstract) Deep Space Network Radiometric Remote Sensing Program

Planetary spacecraft are viewed through a troposphere that absorbs and delays radio signals propagating through it. Tropospheric water, in the form of vapor, cloud liquid,and precipitation , emits radio noise which limits satellite telemetry communication link performance. Even at X-band, rain storms have severely affected several satellite experiments including a planetary encounter. The problem will worsen with DSN implementation of Ka-band becausecommunication link budgets will be dominated by tropospheric conditions. Troposphere-induced propagation delays currently limit VLBI accuracy and are significant sources of error for Doppler tracking. Additionally, the success of radio science programs such as satellite gravity wave experiments and atmospheric occultation experiments depends on minimizing the effect of watervapor-induced prop agation delays. In order to overcome limitations imposed by the troposphere, the Deep Space Network has supported a program of radiometric remote sensing. Currently, water vapor radiometers (WVRs) and microwave temperature profilers (MTPs) support many aspects of the Deep Space Network operations and research and development programs. Their capability to sense atmospheric water, microwave sky brightness, and atmospheric temperature is critical to development of Ka-band telemetry systems, communication link models, VLBI, satellite gravity waveexperiments, and r adio science missions. During 1993, WVRs provided data for propagation mode development, supp orted planetary missions, and demonstrated advanced tracking capability. Collection of atmospheric statistics is necessary to model and predict performance of Ka-band telemetry links, antenna arrays, and radio science experiments. Since the spectrum of weather variations has power at very long time scales, atmospheric measurements have been requested for periods ranging from one year to a decade at each DSN site. The resulting database would provide reliable statistics on daily, monthly, and seasonal variations. Only long-term monitoring will prevent biases from being introduced by an exceptionally wet or dry year. Support for planetary missions included tropospheric calibration for the recent Mars Observer gravity wave experiments and Ka-band link experiment (KaBLE). Additionally, several proposed radio science experiments such as profiling planetary atmospheres using satellite occultations and Ka-band gravitational wave searches require advanced radiometer technology development. Finally, there has been a consistent advanced technology program to advance satellite navigational and tracking capabilities. This year that included an experiment with radiometer based tropospheric calibration for a series of VLBI catalog measurements.

microwave propagation Ka-band weather variations r↗

Deep Space Network Radiometric Remote Sensing Program

Planetary spacecraft are viewed through a troposphere that absorbs and delays radio signals propagating through it. Tropospheric water, in the form of vapor, cloud liquid, and precipitation, emits radio noise which limits satellite telemetry communication link performance. Even at X-band, rain storms have severely affected several satellite experiments including a planetary encounter. The problem will worsen with DSN implementation of Ka-band because communication link budgets will be dominated by tropospheric conditions. Troposphere-induced propagation delays currently limit VLBI accuracy and are significant sources of error for Doppler tracking. Additionally, the success of radio science programs such as satellite gravity wave experiments and atmospheric occultation experiments depends on minimizing the effect of water vapor-induced propagation delays. In order to overcome limitations imposed by the troposphere, the Deep Space Network has supported a program of radiometric remote sensing. Currently, water vapor radiometers (WVRs) and microwave temperature profilers (MTPs) support many aspects of the Deep Space Network operations and research and development programs. Their capability to sense atmospheric water, microwave sky brightness, and atmospheric temperature is critical to development of Ka-band telemetry systems, communication link models, VLBI, satellite gravity wave experiments, and radio science missions. During 1993, WVRs provided data for propagation model development, supported planetary missions, and demonstrated advanced tracking capability. Collection of atmospheric statistics is necessary to model and predict performance of Ka-band telemetry links, antenna arrays, and radio science experiments. Since the spectrum of weather variations has power at very long time scales, atmospheric measurements have been requested for periods ranging from one year to a decade at each DSN site. The resulting database would provide reliable statistics on daily, monthly, and seasonal variations. Only long-term monitoring will prevent biases from being introduced by an exceptionally wet or dry year. Support for planetary missions included tropospheric calibration for the recent Mars Observer gravity wave experiments and Ka-band link experiment (KaBLE). Additionally, several proposed radio science experiments such as profiling planetary atmospheres using satellite occultations and Ka-band gravitational wave searches require advanced radiometer technology development. Finally, there has been a consistent advanced technology program to advance satellite navigational and tracking capabilities. This year that included an experiment with radiometer based tropospheric calibration for a series of VLBI catalog measurements.

tropospheric calibration atmospheric water radio s↗

AIRS - the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) was launched in 2002, along with two companion microwave sounders. This AIRS sounding suite is the most advanced atmospheric sounding system to date, with measurement accuracies far surpassing those of current weather satellites. From its sun synchronous polar orbit, the AIRS system provides more than 90% of the globe every 24 hours. Much of the post-launch period has been devoted to optimizing the 'retrieval' system used to derive atmospheric and other parameters from the observations and to validate those parameters. The geophysical parameters have been produced since the beginning of 2003 - the first data were released to the public in mid-2003, and future improved versions will be released periodically. The ongoing calibration/validation effort has confirmed that the system is very accurate and stable. There are a number of applications for the AIRS products, ranging from numerical weather prediction - where positive impact on forecast accuracy has already been demonstrated, to atmospheric research - where the AIRS water vapor products near the surface and in the mid and upper troposphere as well as in the stratosphere promise to make it possible to characterize and model phenomena that are key for short-term atmospheric processes, from weather patterns to long-term processes, such as interannual variability and climate change.

Aqua↗

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder- An Overview

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) was launched in May 2002. Along with two companion microwave sensors, it forms the AIRS Sounding Suite. This system is the most advanced atmospheric sounding system to date, with measurement accuracies far surpassing those available on current weather satellites. The data products are calibrated radiances from all three sensors and a number of derived geophysical parameters, including vertical temperature and humidity profiles, surface temperature, cloud fraction, cIoud top pressure, and profiles of ozone. These products are generated under cloudy as well as clear conditions. An ongoing calibration validation effort has confirmed that the system is very accurate and stable, and many of the geophysical parameters have been validated. AIRS is in some cases more accurate than any other source and can therefore be difficult to validate, but this offers interesting new research opportunities. The applications for the AIRS products range from numerical weather prediction to atmospheric research - where the AIRS water vapor products near the surface and in the mid to upper troposphere will make it possible to characterize and model phenomena that are key for short-term atmospheric processes, such as weather patterns, to long-term processes, such as interannual cycles (e.g., El Nino) and climate change.

microwave↗

Mechanical Properties of Carbon Fiber Reinforced Composites Exposed to Cryogenic Conditions and Space Radiation via Simulation and Testing

As NASA missions extend beyond low Earth orbit, increasing reliance is placed on carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) composites for spacecraft structures where mass efficiency, durability, and long-term reliability are critical. In service, these materials are subjected to a combination of ultraviolet radiation, vacuum, ionizing radiation, atomic oxygen, and extreme thermal excursions under sustained mechanical loading. Flight systems such as the Boeing Starliner and SpaceX Dragon employ external composite structures that will experience these environments for extended durations. Although prior spaceflight and ground studies have reported limited changes in bulk mechanical properties, the synergistic effects of these environments on composite microstructure, particularly at the fiber matrix interphase, remain insufficiently characterized and represent a potential qualification and reliability risk. This study investigates the effects of short-term cryogenic exposure on a radiation shielding carbon epoxy composite, SC2020, as a ground-based analog for space relevant thermal extremes. The SC2020 material system has previously flown on the International Space Station under the Materials International Space Station Experiment (MISSE) program. Composite specimens were exposed to liquid nitrogen for 6 and 24 hours and evaluated using a multiscale characterization framework that combined ASTM D3039 tensile testing, Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) based interphase analysis, and helium gas permeability measurements. Tensile testing showed no statistically significant or permanent degradation in global strength or modulus following cryogenic exposure. In contrast, AFM measurements revealed reductions in interphase modulus, weakened adhesion, and increased nanoscale heterogeneity, indicating localized degradation mechanisms not captured by conventional bulk testing. Gas permeability measurements showed a progressive increase in helium diffusion with exposure duration, consistent with micro-void formation or partial interfacial debonding. The results indicate that cryogenic exposure initiates degradation at the fiber matrix interphase while leaving global mechanical properties largely unchanged over short durations. These findings underscore the importance of multiscale diagnostics for identifying early-stage damage mechanisms that may influence long term performance and qualification margins for spaceflight composite structures. The data presented establish a cryogenic baseline for comparison with forthcoming MISSE flight exposure results and support ongoing NASA Established Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR) efforts aimed at improving composite qualification methodologies, risk assessment, and reliability prediction for space environments.

composite reliability↗

Predicting Initial Trans-Membrane Pressure for Optimized Operations in UF Unit Using Random Forest

With the growing scarcity of freshwater, innovative process design mechanisms like Reverse Osmosis (RO) are increasingly gaining attention among water treatment utilities to address the rising demand. Ensuring reliable water production necessitates efficient resource utilization, minimizing downtime in (ultra-filtration) UF systems. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) have enabled the development of accurate data-driven models for Model Predictive Control (MPC), often requiring minimal prior knowledge of underlying physical processes. In this study, we present predictive regression models based on Random Forest (RF) and Auto-Regressive (AR) approaches to forecast the initial Trans-Membrane Pressure (TMP) for each filtration cycle in data generated by Direct Potable Reuse (DPR) systems. The proposed RF-based model demonstrates superior performance compared to baseline methods, including historical mean, Last Observation Carried Forward (LOCF), and naïve AR models, across various forecasting horizons in terms of root mean square error (RMSE) metric. To evaluate how different classes of process variables contribute to TMP dynamics over time, we examine the feature importance of independent covariates across multiple forecast horizons. This analysis provides insight into the temporal relevance of operational and sensor-derived features, guiding control and monitoring strategies. Additionally, the impact of hyperparameter tuning on TMP prediction performance is studied for both direct and recursive RF modelling approaches across increasing forecast horizons. Accurate prediction of initial TMP is critical for optimizing RO operations, as it enables the development of robust modelling frameworks by accurately estimating membrane fouling trends, thereby enhancing process efficiency and long-term reliability. The demonstrated efficacy of the RF-based approach highlights its potential as a tool for real-time decision-making in water treatment systems, paving the way for advanced process optimization and sustainable water resource management.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗

Temporal sequence transformer to advance long-term streamflow prediction

Accurate streamflow prediction is crucial for understanding climate change impacts on water resources and for effective management of extreme hydrological events. While Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks have been the dominant data-driven approach for streamflow forecasting, recent advancements in transformer architectures for time series tasks have shown promise in outperforming traditional LSTM models. This study introduces a transformer-based model that integrates historical streamflow data with climatic variables to enhance streamflow prediction accuracy. We evaluated our transformer model against a benchmark LSTM across five diverse basins in the United States. Results demonstrate that the transformer architecture consistently outperforms the LSTM model across all evaluation metrics, highlighting its potential as a more effective tool for hydrological forecasting. This research contributes to the ongoing development of advanced AI techniques for improved water resource management and climate change adaptation strategies.

Singh, Ruhaan [Farragut High School]↗