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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Revolutionizing thermal Management in Next-Generation AI data centers: Challenges and breakthrough innovations

Data centers (DCs) serve as critical infrastructure for powering the growth and evolution of AI. Next-generation AI DCs present unique challenges in thermal management driven by unprecedented computational demands. This paper provides a comprehensive summary of key stakeholder perspectives on technology gaps, infrastructure requirements, test bed needs, emerging opportunities, and preliminary solutions related to thermal management for AI DCs. It establishes six strategic pillars of thermal management for next generation AI DC: reliability, deployability, efficiency, resilience, measurability, and valorization. The discussion spans a range of critical topics, including advanced cooling technologies, thermal strategies for emerging modular and edge DCs, system-level optimization and control frameworks, infrastructure planning and grid integration designs, benchmarking approaches, and pathways for waste heat recovery and reuse. The proposed research, development, and demonstration efforts are aimed at accelerating the deployment of AI DCs while ensuring energy efficiency, reliability, safety, and regulatory compliance.

Wang, Pengtao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000214713429)↗
DOE OSTI2018

Exploratory study of atmospheric methane enhancements derived from natural gas use in the Houston urban area

Here, the extensive use of natural gas (NG) in urban areas for heating, cooking and as a vehicular fuel is associated with potentially significant emissions of methane (CH 4 ) to the atmosphere. Methane, a potent greenhouse gas that influences the chemistry of the atmosphere, can be emitted from different sources including leakage from NG infrastructure, transportation activities, end-use uncombusted NG, landfills and livestock. Although significant CH 4 leakage associated with aging local NG distribution systems in the U.S. has been reported, further investigation is required to study the role of this infrastructure component and other NG-related sources in atmospheric CH 4 enhancements in urban centers. In this study, neighborhood-scale mobile-based monitoring of potential CH 4 emissions associated with NG in the Greater Houston area (GHA) is reported. A novel dual-gas 3.337 μm interband cascade laser-based sensor system was developed and mobile-mode deployed for simultaneous CH 4 and ethane (C 2 H 6 ) monitoring during a period of over 14 days, corresponding to ~ 90 hours of effective data collection during summer 2016. The sampling campaign covered ~ 250 road miles and was primarily concentrated on eight residential zones with distinct infrastructure age and NG usage levels. A moderate number of elevated CH 4 concentration events (37 episodes) with mixing ratios not exceeding 3.60 ppmv and associated with atmospheric background enhancements below 1.21 ppmv were observed during the field campaign. Source discrimination analyses based on the covariance between CH 4 and C 2 H 6 levels indicated the predominance of thermogenic sources (e.g., NG) in the elevated CH 4 concentration episodes. The volumetric fraction of C 2 H 6 in the sources associated with the thermogenic CH 4 spikes varied between 2.7 and 5.9%, concurring with the C 2 H 6 content in NG distributed in the GHA. Isolated CH 4 peak events with significantly higher C 2 H 6 enhancements (~11 %) were observed at industrial areas and locations with high density of petroleum and gas pipelines in the GHA, indicating potential variability in Houston’s thermogenic CH 4 sources.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2017

Estimating the price (in)elasticity of off-grid electricity demand

Community-scale power infrastructure may be the only electrification option for tens of millions households that remain out of reach from centralized power grids. The responsiveness of household electricity demand to price is a crucial design input for off-grid systems. While the price elasticity of electricity demand of grid-connected consumers has been abundantly studied, few studies focus on off-grid communities where substantial econometric challenges arise, including the absence of metered consumption data and electricity prices that are simultaneously determined by cost and demand considerations. This study attempts to address these challenges for the case of off-grid micro hydropower consumers. It makes two core contributions: First, we propose the surface area of the contributing hydrologic catchment as a new instrumental variable to estimate elasticity using a cross sectional dataset of existing micro hydropower infrastructure. Second, we provide a first price-elasticity estimate (-0.15) for off-grid electricity demand in Nepal. We surmise that the small (in absolute value) elasticity value found in this study arises from the low levels of consumption observed off-the-grid. We use a Monte Carlo analysis to show that failing to account for this disparity can lead to substantial financial losses caused by suboptimal power infrastructure design.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2018

The social vulnerability approach for social impact assessment

Highlights: • Social vulnerability is a process in two stages: the Structural and the Acquired.• SVA is apt for the diagnosis and management of social impacts caused by projects. • SVA is based on the Natural disaster and the Assets Based approaches. • Structural Vulnerability influences the very nature of the project. • Understanding the project as a possible hazard improves its analysis. - Abstract: The Social Impact Assessment (SIA) literature has highlighted the need to focus attention on the most vulnerable groups to improve the management of socio-environmental risk. However, methodological proposals to introduce vulnerability in SIAs are still incipient. The aim of this article is to present a proposal to analyze the role of social vulnerability in the production of risks generated by large infrastructure projects. Taking the theoretical-methodological advances made from the social vulnerability and natural disasters approach, and from the social vulnerability, development and poverty approaches, we have designed a Social Vulnerability Approach (SVA) which we aim at incorporating into the SIA of large infrastructure projects. To illustrate our methodological proposal, the case of the socio-environmental conflict generated by the HydroAysen Project (which entailed the construction of a set of hydroelectric dams on the Baker and Pascua rivers in the Chilean Patagonia region) has been selected. Our proposal allows us to identify elements of vulnerability throughout the whole project cycle and, therefore, windows for intervention in order to reduce social vulnerability as well as other kind of hazards that large infrastructure projects may generate on affected populations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

4D electrical resistivity tomography for assessing the influence of vegetation and subsurface moisture on railway cutting condition

Instability of slopes, embankments, and cuttings on the railway network is increasingly prevalent globally. Monitoring vulnerable infrastructure aids in geotechnical asset management, and improvements to transport safety and efficiency. Here, we examine the use of a novel, near-real-time Electrical Resistivity Tomography (ERT) monitoring system for assessing the stability of a railway cutting in Leicestershire, United Kingdom. In 2015, an ERT monitoring system was installed across a relict landslide (grassed) and an area of more stable ground on either side (wooded), to monitor changes in electrical resistivity through time and space, and to assess the influence of different types of vegetation on the stability of transportation infrastructure. Two years of 4-Dimensional ERT monitoring results are presented here, and petrophysical relationships developed in the laboratory are applied to calibrate the resistivity models in order to provide an insight into hydrogeological pathways within a railway cutting. The influence of vegetation type on subsurface moisture pathways and on slope stability is also assessed – here we find that seasonal subsurface changes in moisture content and soil suction are exacerbated by the presence of trees (wooded area). This results in shrink-swell behaviour of the clays comprising the railway cutting, resulting in fissuring and a reduction in shear strength, leading to instability. As such, it is proposed that on slopes comprised of expansive soils, grassed slopes are beneficial for stability. Insights into the use of 4-D ERT for monitoring railway infrastructure gained from this study may be applied to the monitoring of critical geotechnical assets elsewhere.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing electrification readiness in U.S. single-family homes based on a nationwide survey of electrical panel capacities

Electrification of residential buildings is a key strategy for increasing the use of renewable energy sources. Central to this transition is understanding the capacity of existing electrical infrastructure—specifically electrical panels—to safely and effectively manage increased electricity demands from electrification technologies. However, comprehensive nationwide data on electrical panel capacities in U.S. single-family homes is currently lacking. To address this gap, we conducted a nationwide survey of single-family homes, collecting detailed data on electrical panel capacities, breaker slot availability, major electric and gas appliances, electrical panel models, and home characteristics such as construction year and floor area. Photographic documentation was used to verify electrical panel data and appliance information. Results show that approximately 60% of surveyed homes have electrical panels rated at ≥200 amperes (A), indicating that a significant portion of the existing housing stock can accommodate additional electric loads. However, 31% of homes possess panels rated at ≤100 A, potentially restricting their ability to adopt new electric appliances without significant upgrades. Panel capacities positively correlate with both home size and construction year, with newer and larger homes generally better suited for electrification. Homes with higher-capacity panels tend to have fewer gas appliances, reflecting a gradual shift toward electric technologies. Conversely, homes with lower-capacity panels frequently rely on multiple gas appliances, highlighting substantial electrification challenges. Additionally, approximately 3% of surveyed homes had potentially hazardous electrical panel models, emphasizing important safety considerations in the residential electrification process. Our findings underscore the need for targeted policies, financial incentives, and infrastructure investments designed specifically to address infrastructural and safety barriers, particularly in older and smaller homes, to support equitable and efficient electrification across the U.S. residential sector.

Gul, Sadia↗
DOE OSTI2022

Extreme events, energy security and equality through micro- and macro-levels: Concepts, challenges and methods

Low-income households face long-standing challenges of energy insecurity and inequality (EII). During extreme events (e.g., disasters and pandemics) these challenges are especially severe for vulnerable populations reliant on energy for health, education, and well-being. However, many EII studies rarely incorporate the micro- and macro-perspectives of resilience and reliability of energy and internet infrastructure and social-psychological factors. To remedy this gap, we first address the impacts of extreme events on EII among vulnerable populations. Second, we evaluate the driving factors of EII and how they change during disasters. Third, we situate these inequalities within broader energy systems and pinpoint the importance of equitable infrastructure systems by examining infrastructure reliability and resilience and the role of renewable technologies. Then, we consider the factors influencing energy consumption, such as energy practices, socio-psychological factors, and internet access. Finally, we propose interdisciplinary research methods to study these issues during extreme events and provide recommendations.

Chen, CF↗
DOE OSTI2022

Social vulnerability and power loss mitigation: A case study of Puerto Rico

The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events urges us to reevaluate the resiliency and vulnerability aspects of our most critical infrastructures — such as power grids — as their failures result in both economic loss and severe human hardship. Seen through the lens of alleviating human suffering, it is crucial to be able to identify critical system components of the infrastructure for targeted hardening given resource constraints. This effort is of particular importance in islanded areas such as Puerto Rico where hurricanes are frequent and resources are limited, and where the spatially diverse effects of power loss on human suffering are all the more severe. Recent studies on evaluating infrastructure networks during extreme weather events have taken a simulation based approach that incorporates a variety of component models, such as weather realizations, topological network models, fragility models, and power flow models to estimate expected loss of service. Here, in this work, we expand such a Component Based Event Simulation (CBES) methodology proposed in the literature and integrate it with a social vulnerability modeling component. This paradigm-advancing approach of synthesizing the cutting edge capability of power network modeling and the social impacts of the power transmission network failure is demonstrated for the island of Puerto Rico. Our work exemplifies the efficacy of this integrated modeling framework in developing a decision metric for targeted transmission line hardening.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

A generic scenario analysis of end-of-life plastic management: Chemical additives

Plastic growing demand and the increment in global plastics production have raised the number of spent plastics, out of which over 90% are either landfilled or incinerated. Both methods for handling spent plastics are susceptible to releasing toxic substances, damaging air, water, soil, organisms, and public health. Improvements to the existing infrastructure for plastics management are needed to limit chemical additive release and exposure resulting from the end-of-life (EoL) stage. This article analyzes the current plastic waste management infrastructure and identifies chemical additive releases through a material flow analysis. Additionally, we performed a facility-level generic scenario analysis of the current U.S. EoL stage of plastic additives to track and estimate their potential migration, releases, and occupational exposure. Potential scenarios were analyzed through sensitivity analysis to examine the merit of increasing recycling rates, using chemical recycling, and implementing additive extraction post-recycling. Our analyses identified that the current state of plastic EoL management possesses high mass flow intensity toward incineration and landfilling. Although maximizing the plastic recycling rate is a reasonably straightforward goal for enhancing material circularity, the conventional mechanical recycling method requires improvement because major chemical additive release and contamination routes act as obstacles to achieving high-quality plastics for future reuse and should be mitigated through chemical recycling and additive extraction. In conclusion, the potential hazards and risks identified in this research create an opportunity to design a safer closed-loop plastic recycling infrastructure to handle additives strategically and support sustainable materials management efforts to transform the US plastic economy from linear to circular.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Geospatial analysis of freight accessibility and job attraction: The role of interstate ramps, airports, ports, and rail

The number of jobs within an industry is significantly influenced by geographical location, with transportation infrastructure playing a key role. While previous research has largely focused on how access to jobs affects employment, less attention has been given to how transportation infrastructure impacts business operations and job attraction. Here, this study addresses this gap by examining how the ease of transporting products to key transportation facilities affects job numbers in freight-intensive industries. Using job data from the Longitudinal Employment Household Dynamics dataset at the Census Tract level, we applied a non-parametric model to assess the impact of proximity to interstate ramps, rail intermodals, ports, and airports. Our analysis revealed that closer transportation infrastructure generally has a greater impact on employment. Specifically, interstate ramps are crucial for attracting jobs, particularly in rural areas, while airport proximity is essential for industries dealing with high-value, time-sensitive goods, as seen notably in Massachusetts. The importance of transportation facilities varies considerably across states and industries. The findings and method in this study can be used by transportation agencies for freight planning.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Challenges and Opportunities in Decarbonizing the U.S. Energy System

The United States has pledged to develop a 100% carbon-free electric power system by 2035 and a net-zero-emissions economy by 2050. While important advancements have been made in the scale, performance, and economics of clean energy technologies, meeting the nation's ambitious goals will not only require their deployment at scale, but also additional innovation and effective integration of different solutions. Technological developments across the broad suite of low-carbon energy solutions are advancing rapidly, with ongoing innovations in renewable electricity generation, industrial processes, and energy-saving technologies and services, including LED lighting, induction heating, electric vehicles, energy storage solutions, and mobility as a service, plus smart devices, controls, and more efficient and smart buildings. Combining renewable electricity with biotic and abiotic pathways to produce chemicals, fuels, and materials promises to deliver new solutions. Grid-interactive buildings and communities, integrating transportation infrastructure and vehicles, are likely to be significant components of any zero-carbon energy strategy. Low-carbon industrial manufacturing will also make strong contributions to a net-zero economy. While the technical prospects appear promising, variations in the state of infrastructure, jurisdictional and social equity, pollution, economic and socio-cultural constraints, energy resource availability, and supply chain dynamics found in different locations present a range of challenges and demand customized solutions. This paper provides a critical review and offers new insights into the technical, infrastructure, analytic, political, and economic challenges faced in translating the nation's ambitious net-zero-emissions goals into feasible and reliable implementation action plans.

circular economy↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydrogen technology for maritime applications: A review of challenges, opportunities, and lessons from the port authority of New York and New Jersey

The maritime industry faces increasing demand for energy security, operational efficiency, and environmental performance improvements. Hydrogen technology, considered a potential energy carrier, is being explored for port operations, including cargo-handling equipment, heavy-duty vehicles, and stationary power systems. This review evaluates the feasibility, challenges, and potential benefits of hydrogen integration within port infrastructure, using the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey as a representative case study. Drawing on case studies, technical reports, and policy analyses, this study examines the infrastructural, regulatory, and operational factors influencing large-scale deployment, emphasizing supply chain development, storage requirements, and refueling infrastructure. By situating hydrogen within broader maritime energy transition efforts, this review provides an evidence-based assessment of its role in port operations and energy diversification strategies. In conclusion, the findings outline key barriers to adoption and emphasize the need for coordinated efforts among stakeholders to determine hydrogen's role alongside other emerging energy technologies.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Life Cycle Assessment for Evaluating the Global Warming Potential of Geothermal Energy Production Using Inactive Oil and Gas Wells for District Heating in Tuttle, Oklahoma

Repurposing abandoned oil and gas infrastructure for geothermal energy production has great potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study quantified the life cycle global warming potential of geothermal energy production using four inactive oil and gas wells repurposed for district heating in Tuttle, Oklahoma. A cradle-to-grave prospective life cycle assessment was performed to compare GHG emissions between the geothermal district heating system and conventional natural gas-fired heating system from 2020 to 2050. For initial implementation of the geothermal system, we investigated two approaches: 1) repurposing abandoned infrastructure from a nearby oil and gas well site, and 2) production and injection well drillings including new construction of a central heat exchange station. Environmental impacts from the geothermal system were estimated for five scenarios where a natural gas peaking boiler is incorporated to supply peak heat demand. The prospective results indicated that cumulative reduction in GHG emissions from transitioning to the geothermal district heating system increase over time as a function of future renewable resource penetration and technological advancements within electricity, fuel, and steel production. Over 30 years, the global warming potential associated with the district heating demand will have been reduced by up to 24 % with the repurposed system. These results imply that repurposing existing oil and gas infrastructure for geothermal energy systems of district heating will bring future climate benefits.

abandoned oil and gas wells↗
DOE OSTI2019

Life cycle assessment and tempo-spatial optimization of deploying dynamic wireless charging technology for electric cars

Dynamic wireless power transfer (DWPT), or dynamic wireless charging technology, enables charging-while-driving and offers opportunities for eliminating range anxiety, stimulating market penetration of electric vehicles (EVs), and enhancing the sustainability performance of electrified transportation. However, the deployment of wireless charging lanes on highways and urban road networks can be costly and resource-intensive. A life cycle assessment (LCA) is conducted here to compare the sustainability performance of DWPT applied in a network of highways and urban roads for charging electric passenger cars. The assessment compares DWPT to stationary wireless charging and to conventional plug-in charging using a case study of Washtenaw County in Michigan, USA over 20 years. The LCA is based on three key sustainability metrics: costs, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and energy burdens, encompassing not only the use-phase burdens from electricity and fuel, but also the upfront deployment burdens of DWPT infrastructure. A genetic algorithm is applied to optimize the rollout of DWPT infrastructure both spatially and temporally in order to minimize life cycle costs, GHG, and energy burdens: (1) spatial optimization selects road segments to deploy DWPT considering traffic volume, speed, and pavement remaining service life (RSL); (2) temporal optimization determines in which year to deploy DWPT on a particular road segment considering EV market share growth as a function of DWPT coverage rate, future DWPT cost reduction, and charging efficiency improvement. Results indicate that optimal deployment of DWPT electrifying up to about 3% of total roadway lane-miles reduces life cycle GHG emissions and energy by up to 9.0% and 6.8%, respectively, and enables downsizing of the EV battery capacity by up to 48%, compared to the non-DWPT scenarios. Roadside solar panels and storage batteries are essential to significantly reduce life cycle energy and GHG burdens but bring additional costs. Breakeven analysis indicates a breakeven year for solar charging benefits to pay back the DWPT infrastructure burdens can be less than 20 years for GHG and energy burdens but longer than 20 years for costs. A monetization of carbon emissions of at least $250 per metric tonne of CO 2 is required to shift the optimal “pro-cost” deployment to the optimal “pro-GHG” deployment. A roadway segment with volume greater than about 26,000 vehicle counts per day, speed slower than 55 miles per hour (1 mile ≈ 1.609 km), and pavement RSL shorter than 3 years should be given a high priority for early-stage DWPT deployment.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

E-scooter safety: How attitudinal factors influence risky behavior among shared e-scooter riders

In recent years, e-scooter usage for short-distance trips has grown rapidly. This surge in e-scooter use, combined with the high exposure of e-scooter riders to accident risk, has sparked concerns regarding e-scooter safety. Despite some studies focusing on e-scooter safety, little is known about how attitudinal factors lead e-scooter riders to engage in risky riding behaviors. In this paper, we developed a survey-based empirical model to identify the attitudinal factors influencing engagement in risky behaviors among e-scooter users. We used survey data collected from 420 shared e-scooter users in Chicago in 2022. The survey showed that 47.7% of respondents had experienced at least one collision or fall-off while riding e-scooters. We employed the Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Model (PLS-SEM) to examine the relationships between latent attitudinal factors and risky behavior engagement. Moreover, we conducted Permutation Multi-group Analysis (PMGA) to assess the moderating effect of socio-demographic factors within the estimated model. The findings suggest that riders’ unsafe riding attitude and riding confidence are the most influential factors shaping their risky behavior engagement. In addition, accident experience, infrastructure suitability, perceived enjoyment, traffic risk perception, and operational risk perception are among the other significant predictors. Among socio-demographic factors, gender, age, education, and car use frequency significantly influence riders’ engagement in risky behaviors. The results highlight the importance of infrastructure suitability and accident experience in analyzing e-scooter users’ riding behavior. The developed model advances our understanding of factors contributing to e-scooter riders’ risky behavior engagement. The findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and e-scooter vendors aiming to mitigate e-scooter users’ accident risk. Specifically, we recommend three safety countermeasures: (1) safety training programs to encourage a safer attitude, (2) practice-based initiatives to enhance riding confidence, and (3) infrastructure improvements, especially the expansion of bike lanes.

E-scooter↗
DOE OSTI2017

The new norms of food waste at the curb: Evidence-based policy tools to address benefits and barriers

Highlights: • Pairing social and technical innovations improves organic collection programs. • Supportive infrastructure significantly increases household food waste diversion. • Norm communication increases separation behavior and reduces dropout. •Model predicting-fit best behavior-change tools is partially supported. • Norms are most effective on population perceiving low benefits and barriers. - Abstract: Cities around the world are under increasing political pressure to develop organics collection programs (OCP) to curb the flow of food waste into landfills, reduce the associated greenhouse gases, and generate compost or biogas. While OCPs tend to focus on infrastructure, they often overlook the linchpin role that household behavior change plays in the success of OCPs. The current research used a longitudinal field experiment (n=370) to test both the effectiveness of a new curbside OCP and new social innovations intended to stimulate pro-environmental changes in household behavior. The findings suggest greater participation levels occur by implementing both new supportive infrastructure (i.e., curbside carts and collection services), and innovations that target the social aspects of waste (i.e., communicating social norms of separation). The data also provide an opportunity to test new model for predicting the most efficacious behavior-change interventions based on population profiles. The results provide some support for the model; reducing barriers (i.e., curbside carts and collection) tends to help all population profiles, but norm communication increases participation more for the hypothesized profile than for other sub-groups.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2018

Interdependencies and Risk to People and Critical Food, Energy, and Water Systems: 2013 Flood, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Abstract This paper examines the interdependencies mediating the cascading negative consequences triggered by the September 2013 flood, in Boulder, Colorado, USA. By illustrating the risks to people and critical food‐energy‐water systems of a low probability, high‐impact event, we draw lessons on what is likely to occur in the future. Other scholars have modeled the influence of interdependent infrastructures on cascading effects. But this is one of the first studies integrating stakeholders' understanding of the influence of interdependent actions, institutions, and infrastructures. These interdependencies create the conditions for vulnerability, which is a product of multiscale and dynamic sociodemographic, economic, technologic, environmental, and governance interactions. Political histories and historical decisions on where and how to design infrastructure exert a deep influence on short‐ and long‐term capacity to manage risk. Boulder's high socio‐institutional and learning capacity, while key, is not enough to influence integrative, transformative changes. Contrary to current approaches to nexus thinking, the regimes in which emergency and recovery actions are embedded are dynamically stable, thus imposing a logic for incremental change along established pathways of understanding and action. Our study offers some lessons on the challenges of bringing together diverse sectoral and jurisdictional sectors during and after an extreme event.

Romero‐Lankao, Patricia↗
DOE OSTI2023

High–Resolution Maps of Near–Surface Permafrost for Three Watersheds on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska Derived From Machine Learning

Permafrost soils are a critical component of the global carbon cycle and are locally important because they regulate the hydrologic flux from uplands to rivers. Furthermore, degradation of permafrost soils causes land surface subsidence, damaging infrastructure that is crucial for local communities. Regional and hemispherical maps of permafrost are too coarse to resolve distributions at a scale relevant to assessments of infrastructure stability or to illuminate geomorphic impacts of permafrost thaw. Here we train machine learning models to generate meter–scale maps of near–surface permafrost for three watersheds in the discontinuous permafrost region. The models were trained using ground truth determinations of near–surface permafrost presence from measurements of soil temperature and electrical resistivity. We trained three classifiers: extremely randomized trees (ERTr), support vector machines (SVM), and an artificial neural network (ANN). Model uncertainty was determined using k–fold cross validation, and the modeled extents of near–surface permafrost were compared to the observed extents at each site. At–a–site near–surface permafrost distributions predicted by the ERTr produced the highest accuracy (70%–90%). However, the transferability of the ERTr to the sites outside of the training data set was poor, with accuracies ranging from 50% to 77%. The SVM and ANN models had lower accuracies for at–a–site prediction (70%–83%), yet they had greater accuracy when transferred to the non–training site (62%–78%). These models demonstrate the potential for integrating high–resolution spatial data and machine learning models to develop maps of near–surface permafrost extent at resolutions fine enough to assess infrastructure vulnerability and landscape morphology influenced by permafrost thaw.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗