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DOE OSTI2024

Methods of Securing Chemical and Pharmaceutical Knowledge and Recommendations for International Institutions to Enhance Research Integrity

Here, this paper examines strategies for securing chemical and pharmaceutical expertise in a globalized research environment, focusing on safeguarding intellectual property and preventing the misuse of sensitive and potentially dual-use information. The product of collective efforts between Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Carol Davila University of Medicine and Pharmacy, and New Bulgarian University, highlights the challenges and opportunities posed by cross-border research collaborations, particularly in the context of differing regulatory frameworks and research cultures. It explores current mechanisms to prevent data loss and unauthorized access to sensitive information while assessing the effectiveness of existing security measures, frameworks, and international export control regimes. The approach examines the differing methodologies for promoting transparency, trust-building, and mutual accountability in joint research projects to cultivate secure data-sharing practices and intellectual property. It provides recommendations for international institutions to implement security guidelines in framing research priorities, encourages continual training and education programs, and the integration of processes for monitoring research compliance. This partnership aims to advance scientific innovation while maintaining global stability, ensuring compliance with international norms, and safeguarding valuable intellectual property as measures in chemical and pharmaceutical research security practices continue to expand due to international collaboration and knowledge exchange.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

A standards perspective on genomic data reusability and reproducibility

Genomic and metagenomic sequence data provides an unprecedented ability to re-examine findings, offering a transformative potential for advancing research, developing computational tools, enhancing clinical applications, and fostering scientific collaboration. However, effective and ethical reuse of genomics data is hampered by numerous technical and social challenges. The International Microbiome and Multi’Omics Standards Alliance (IMMSA, https://www.microbialstandards.org/) and the Genomic Standards Consortium (GSC, https://gensc.org) hosted a 5-part seminar series “A Year of Data Reuse” in 2024 to explore challenges and opportunities of data reuse and reproducibility across disparate domains of the genomic sciences. Addressing these challenges will require a multifaceted approach, including common metadata reporting, clear communication, standardized protocols, improved data management infrastructure, ethical guidelines, and collaborative policies that prioritize transparency and accessibility. We offer strategies to enable responsible and technically feasible data reuse, recognition of data reproducibility challenges, and emphasizing the importance of cross-disciplinary efforts in the pursuit of open science and data-driven innovation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

In-situ/operando study of Cu-based nanocatalysts for CO 2 electroreduction using electrochemical liquid cell TEM

The structure of a nanocatalyst during electrocatalytic reactions often deviates from its pristine structure due to intrinsic properties, or physical and chemical adsorption at the catalytic surfaces. Taking Cu-based catalysts for CO 2 electroreduction reactions (CO 2 RR) as an example, they often experience segregation, leaching, and alloying during reactions. With the recent breakthrough development of high-resolution polymer electrochemical liquid cells, in-situ electrochemical liquid cell transmission electron microscopy (EC-TEM) alongside other advanced microscopy techniques, has become a powerful platform for revealing electrocatalysts restructuring at the atomic level. Considering the complex reactions involving electrified solid-liquid interfaces and catalyst structural evolution with intermediates, systematic studies with multimodal approaches are crucial. In this article, we demonstrate a research protocol for the study of electrocatalysts structural evolution during reactions using the in-situ EC-TEM platform. Using Cu and CuAg nanowire catalysts for CO 2 RR as model systems, we describe the experimental procedures and findings. We highlight the platform’s crucial role in elucidating atomic-scale pathways of nanocatalyst restructuring and identifying catalytic active sites, as well as avoiding potential artifacts to ensure unbiased conclusions. Using the multimodal characterization toolbox, we provide the opportunity to correlate the structure of a working catalyst with its performance. Finally, we discuss advancements as well as the remaining gap in elucidating the structural-performance relationship of working catalysts. We expect this article will assist in establishing guidelines for future investigations of complex electrochemical reactions, such as CO 2 RR and other catalytic processes, using the in-situ EC-TEM platform.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Bioinformatic Teaching Resources – For Educators, by Educators – Using KBase, a Free, User-Friendly, Open Source Platform

Over the past year, biology educators and staff at the U.S. Department of Energy Systems Biology Knowledgebase (KBase) initiated a collaborative effort to develop a curriculum for bioinformatics education. KBase is a free web-based platform where anyone can conduct sophisticated and reproducible bioinformatic analyses via a graphical user interface. Here, we demonstrate the utility of KBase as a platform for bioinformatics education, and present a set of modular, adaptable, and customizable instructional units for teaching concepts in Genomics, Metagenomics, Pangenomics, and Phylogenetics. Each module contains teaching resources, publicly available data, analysis tools, and Markdown capability, enabling instructors to modify the lesson as appropriate for their specific course. We present initial student survey data on the effectiveness of using KBase for teaching bioinformatic concepts, provide an example case study, and detail the utility of the platform from an instructor’s perspective. Even as in-person teaching returns, KBase will continue to work with instructors, supporting the development of new active learning curriculum modules. For anyone utilizing the platform, the growing KBase Educators Organization provides an educators network, accompanied by community-sourced guidelines, instructional templates, and peer support, for instructors wishing to use KBase within a classroom at any educational level–whether virtual or in-person.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Nuclear history, politics, and futures from (A)toms-to(Z)oom: Design and deployment of a remote-learning special-topics course for nuclear engineering education

To address the lack of familiarity with nuclear history common among nuclear engineers and physicists, we outline the design and deployment of a special-topics course entitled “NE290: Nuclear History, Politics, and Futures” throughout which we contextualize the importance of the field at its inception, in current affairs, and in future endeavors. We argue that understanding this history is paramount in internalizing a sense of respect for the scientific, technical, and sociological ramifications of an unlocked atom—as well as its perils. We begin by outlining the gaps in secondary educational offerings for nuclear history and their importance in consideration with nontechnical engineering guidelines. We then outline a number of ABET specifications as pedagogical goals for NE290 from which we derive a list of target student learning objectives. Next, we outline the NE290 syllabus in terms of assignments and an overview of course content in the form of a class timeline. We provide an extensive description of the materials and teaching methodologies for the four units of NE290: Twentieth-Century Physics, Physics in WWII, the Early Cold War, and the Late Cold War and Modern Era. We detail the sequence of lectures across the course and historical timelines leading up to a showcasing of NE290 final projects which mirror in creativity the novelty of course offering. Because NE290 was first offered during Spring 2021 during the COVID-19 pandemic, additional measures in the form of new tools were used to augment the mandate of remote learning. In particular, we leveraged the newfound ubiquity of videoconferencing technology to recruit geographically diverse guest lecturers and used the MIRO tool for virtual whiteboarding. Lastly, we provide an accounting of course outcomes drawn from student feedback which—in tandem with the complete distribution of course material—facilitates the integration of nuclear history into the curriculum for the wider nuclear engineering and physics communities.

Berliner, Aaron J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Al 2 O 3 Thin Films on Magnesium: Assessing the Impact of an Artificial Solid Electrolyte Interphase

Among the many emerging technologies under investigation as alternatives to the successful Lithium-ion battery, the magnesium battery is promising due to the wide availability of magnesium, its high volumetric capacity, and the possibility for safety improvements. One of the largest challenges facing rechargeable magnesium batteries is the formation of a passivation layer at the Mg metal anode interface when reactive species in the electrolyte are reduced at the electrode-electrolyte interface. To control the solid electrolyte interphase in Lithium batteries, protective layers called artificial solid electrolyte interphase (ASEI) layers have been successful in improving Li metal anode performance. The approach of protecting Mg metal anodes from electrolyte degradation has been demonstrated by fewer studies in the literature than Li systems. In this work, we discuss the properties of Al 2 O 3 thin films deposited using atomic layer deposition as an artificial solid electrolyte interphase at the Mg anode. Our results demonstrate that Al 2 O 3 does prevent electrolyte degradation due to the reductive nature of Mg. However, undesirable properties such as defects and layer breakdown lead to Mg growth that causes soft-shorting. The soft-shorting occurs with and without the protection layer, indicating the ALD layer does not prevent it and hinders Al 2 O 3 from being an ideal candidate for a protection layer. Crucial effects of this layer on Mg electrochemistry at the interface were observed, including growth of Mg deposits leading to soft-shorting of the cell whose morphology showed a dependence on the Al 2 O 3 layer. These results may provide guidelines for the future design and development of protective ASEI layers for Mg anodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gas Permeability Test Protocol for Ion-Exchange Membranes

The membrane-based electrolysis of water is a growing topic of interest due to the advantages of employing membranes in hydrogen production efficiency and system safety over the traditional alkaline water electrolysis. Ion-exchange membranes with low gas permeability are highly desirable for stable and safe operation of membrane-based water-splitting technologies, hence gas permeability through ion-exchange membranes needs to be properly assessed with standardized methods. We addressed three methods to measure gas permeability of ion-exchange membranes, a pressure permeation cell, chronoamperometry microelectrodes, and in situ testing of the membrane electrode assembly, and provide a guideline for choosing the appropriate method for the targeted operating conditions of the water electrolyzers.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Standardization and best practices in single-cell testing for liquid alkaline water electrolysis

The increasing demand for efficient and sustainable hydrogen production has driven significant advancements in water electrolysis technologies. Among these, liquid alkaline water electrolysis (LAWE) stands out for its cost-effectiveness and scalability. This manuscript establishes best practices and standardized testing procedures for single-cell LAWE, focusing on the use of nickel foam as both anode and cathode substrates, while incorporating catalysts such as nickel-iron layered double hydroxide (NiFe-LDH) as the anode material and nickel-molybdenum on carbon (NiMo/C) as the cathode material. By providing detailed guidelines on material preparation, cell assembly, and performance evaluation, this work offers a comprehensive framework to improve reproducibility and ensure consistency. The results demonstrate that applying these best practices minimizes variability across different laboratories and experimental setups, laying the groundwork for more robust comparisons and accelerating progress in LAWE research.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Coarse-Grained Model of Affinity Maturation Indicates the Importance of B-Cell Receptor Avidity in Epitope Subdominance

The elicitation of broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) is a major goal in the design of vaccines against rapidly-mutating viruses. In the case of influenza, many bnAbs that target conserved epitopes on the stem of the hemagglutinin protein (HA) have been discovered. However, these antibodies are rare, are not boosted well upon reinfection, and often have low neutralization potency, compared to strain-specific antibodies directed to the HA head. Different hypotheses have been proposed to explain this phenomenon. We use a coarse-grained computational model of the germinal center reaction to investigate how B-cell receptor binding valency affects the growth and affinity maturation of competing B-cells. We find that receptors that are unable to bind antigen bivalently, and also those that do not bind antigen cooperatively, have significantly slower rates of growth, memory B-cell production, and, under certain conditions, rates of affinity maturation. The corresponding B-cells are predicted to be outcompeted by B-cells that bind bivalently and cooperatively. We use the model to explore strategies for a universal influenza vaccine, e.g., how to boost the concentrations of the slower growing cross-reactive antibodies directed to the stem. The results suggest that, upon natural reinfections subsequent to vaccination, the protectiveness of such vaccines would erode, possibly requiring regular boosts. Collectively, our results strongly support the importance of bivalent antibody binding in immunodominance, and suggest guidelines for developing a universal influenza vaccine.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Marine Microeukaryote Metatranscriptomics: Sample Processing and Bioinformatic Workflow Recommendations for Ecological Applications

Microeukaryotes (protists) serve fundamental roles in the marine environment as contributors to biogeochemical nutrient cycling and ecosystem function. Their activities can be inferred through metatranscriptomic investigations, which provide a detailed view into cellular processes, chemical-biological interactions in the environment, and ecological relationships among taxonomic groups. Established workflows have been individually put forth describing biomass collection at sea, laboratory RNA extraction protocols, and bioinformatic processing and computational approaches. Here, we present a compilation of current practices and lessons learned in carrying out metatranscriptomics of marine pelagic protistan communities, highlighting effective strategies and tools used by practitioners over the past decade. We anticipate that these guidelines will serve as a roadmap for new marine scientists beginning in the realms of molecular biology and/or bioinformatics, and will equip readers with foundational principles needed to delve into protistan metatranscriptomics.

Cohen, Natalie R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterization of wind turbine flow through nacelle-mounted lidars: a review

This article provides a comprehensive review of the most recent advances in the planning, execution, and analysis of inflow and wake measurements from nacelle-mounted wind Doppler lidars. Lidars installed on top of wind turbines provide a holistic view of the inflow and wake characteristics required to characterize and optimize wind turbine performance, carry out model validation and calibration, and aid in real-time control. The need to balance the enhanced capabilities and limitations of lidars compared to traditional anemometers inspired a broad variety of approaches for scan design and wind reconstruction, which we discuss in this review. We give particular emphasis to identifying common guidelines and gaps in the available literature with the aim of providing an exhaustive picture of the state-of-the-art techniques for reconstructing wind plant flow using nacelle-mounted lidars.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tuning gold-based surface functionalization for streptavidin detection: A combined simulative and experimental study

A rationally designed gold-functionalized surface capable of capturing a target protein is presented using the biotin–streptavidin pair as a proof-of-concept. We carried out multiscale simulations to shed light on the binding mechanism of streptavidin on four differently biotinylated surfaces. Brownian Dynamics simulations were used to reveal the preferred initial orientation of streptavidin over the surfaces, whereas classical molecular dynamics was used to refine the binding poses and to investigate the fundamental forces involved in binding, and the binding kinetics. We assessed the binding events and the stability of the streptavidin attachment through a quartz crystal microbalance with dissipation monitoring (QCM-D). The sensing element comprises of biotinylated polyethylene glycol chains grafted on the sensor’s gold surface via thiol-Au chemistry. Finally, we compared the results from experiments and simulations. We found that the confined biotin moieties can specifically capture streptavidin from the liquid phase and provide guidelines on how to exploit the microscopic parameters obtained from simulations to guide the design of further biosensors with enhanced sensitivity.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine learning models for rat multigeneration reproductive toxicity prediction

Reproductive toxicity is one of the prominent endpoints in the risk assessment of environmental and industrial chemicals. Due to the complexity of the reproductive system, traditional reproductive toxicity testing in animals, especially guideline multigeneration reproductive toxicity studies, take a long time and are expensive. Therefore, machine learning, as a promising alternative approach, should be considered when evaluating the reproductive toxicity of chemicals. We curated rat multigeneration reproductive toxicity testing data of 275 chemicals from ToxRefDB (Toxicity Reference Database) and developed predictive models using seven machine learning algorithms (decision tree, decision forest, random forest, k-nearest neighbors, support vector machine, linear discriminant analysis, and logistic regression). A consensus model was built based on the seven individual models. An external validation set was curated from the COSMOS database and the literature. The performances of individual and consensus models were evaluated using 500 iterations of 5-fold cross-validations and the external validation data set. The balanced accuracy of the models ranged from 58% to 65% in the 5-fold cross-validations and 45%–61% in the external validations. Prediction confidence analysis was conducted to provide additional information for more appropriate applications of the developed models. The impact of our findings is in increasing confidence in machine learning models. We demonstrate the importance of using consensus models for harnessing the benefits of multiple machine learning models (i.e., using redundant systems to check validity of outcomes). While we continue to build upon the models to better characterize weak toxicants, there is current utility in saving resources by being able to screen out strong reproductive toxicants before investing in vivo testing. The modeling approach (machine learning models) is offered for assessing the rat multigeneration reproductive toxicity of chemicals. Our results suggest that machine learning may be a promising alternative approach to evaluate the potential reproductive toxicity of chemicals.

consensus model↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sex comparisons in physiological and cognitive performance during hypoxic challenge

Within the tactical aviation community, human performance research lags in considering potential psychophysiological differences between male and female aviators due to little inclusion of females during the design and development of aircraft systems. A poor understanding of how male and female aviators differ with respect to human performance results in unknown potential sex differences on aeromedically relevant environmental stressors, perchance leading to suboptimal performance, safety, and health guidelines. For example, previous hypoxia studies have excluded female participants or lacked a sizeable sample to examine sex comparisons. As such, progress toward sensor development and improving hypoxia familiarization training are stunted due to limited knowledge of how individual differences, including sex, may or may not underlie hypoxia symptoms and performance impairment. Investigating sex differences bridges the gap between aerospace medicine and operational health, and addressing hypoxia is one of many facets yet to be studied. In the current study, we retrospectively examined N = 6 hypoxia studies with male-female participant samples (total, N = 189; male, n = 118; female, n = 71). We explored sex as a predictor of physiological response, sensory deficits, the severity of cognitive performance declines, and symptom manifestation via linear and binary logistic regression models. We found that the female sex predicted lower peripheral oxygen saturation and the likelihood of headache reporting in response to hypoxic challenge, yet explained little variance when combined with age and body mass index. The sensory and cognitive performance models did not converge, suggesting high intra-individual variability. Together, sex, age, and body mass index were not the most robust predictors in responses to hypoxic challenge; we cannot infer this for sensory deficits and cognitive performance within an experimentally induced hypoxic environment. The findings have implications for improving hypoxia familiarization training, monitoring sensor development, and emergency response and recovery protocols in case of a hypoxia occurrence suitable for all aircrew. We recommend continuing to elucidate the impact of sex and intrapersonal differences in hypoxia and other aeromedically relevant stressors in tactical aviation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

How long were older people expected to live with or without sarcopenia? Multistate modeling of a national cohort study

Objectives Sarcopenia is well known to be associated with mortality, but there is a lack of evidence on the estimates of life expectancy (LE) for sarcopenia in China. This study aims to estimate total life expectancy (TLE) and sarcopenia-specific LE in community-dwelling older Chinese adults with and without sarcopenia. Methods This study included participants aged 60 years and older who enrolled in the cohort in 2011 and 2013 and at least completed one follow-up until 2015 as part of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). The criteria for defining sarcopenia were based on the guidelines established by the Asian Working Group on Sarcopenia in 2019. TLE and sarcopenia-specific LE were estimated for the total population and subgroups using continuous-time multistate modeling. Results A total of 6,029 participants (49.2% women) with an average age of 68.4 (SD: 6.56) years were included in the study. The baseline prevalence of sarcopenia and possible sarcopenia was 19.5 and 44.9%, respectively. We observed that sarcopenia stages naturally deteriorated to worse stages (including death, by 24.4%) and returned to better stages (17.1%) during a median follow-up of 3.92 years (IQR: 2.00 ~ 4.00). The average TLE at the age of 60 was 20.9 [95% CI: 20.2–21.5] years (22.1 [95% CI: 19.6–24.6] for non-sarcopenic older adults, 20.9 [95% CI: 19.5–22.3] for possible sarcopenic, and 18.7 [95% CI: 16.4–21.1] for sarcopenic). Men, former and current smokers, and those living in northwest China had less TLE. Sarcopenic older adults, those with lower education, those who are unmarried, those with agriculture hukou, and those living in rural and northwest China were expected to live fewer years with non-sarcopenia. Sarcopenic older people, men, those with agriculture hukou, and those living in rural and southwest China were expected to live more years with sarcopenia. Discussion The results improved our understanding of the relationship between sarcopenia and life expectancy. We suggested that targeted strategies should be considered in high-risk populations and underdeveloped regions to prevent sarcopenia and improve non-sarcopenic life years for the older population.

Ye, Bo↗
DOE OSTI2021

Do We Need a New Sustainability Assessment Method for the Circular Economy? A Critical Literature Review

The goal of the circular economy (CE) is to transition from today's take-make-waste linear pattern of production and consumption to a circular system in which the societal value of products, materials, and resources is maximized over time. Yet circularity in and of itself does not ensure social, economic, and environmental performance (i.e., sustainability). Sustainability of CE strategies needs to be measured against their linear counterparts to identify and avoid strategies that increase circularity yet lead to unintended externalities. The state of the practice in quantitatively comparing sustainability impacts of circular to linear systems is one of experimentation with various extant methods developed in other fields and now applied here. While the proliferation of circularity metrics has received considerable attention, to-date, there is no critical review of the methods and combinations of methods that underlie those metrics and that specifically quantify sustainability impacts of circular strategies. Our critical review herein analyzes identified methods according to six criteria: temporal resolution, scope, data requirements, data granularity, capacity for measuring material efficiency potentials, and sustainability completeness. Results suggest that the industrial ecology and complex systems science fields could prove complementary when assessing the sustainability of the transition to a CE. Both fields include quantitative methods differing primarily with regard to their inclusion of temporal aspects and material efficiency potentials. Moreover, operations research methods such as multiple-criteria decision-making (MCDM) may alleviate the common contradictions which often exist between circularity metrics. This review concludes by suggesting guidelines for selecting quantitative methods most appropriate to a particular research question and making the argument that while there are a variety of existing methods, additional research is needed to combine existing methods and develop a more holistic approach for assessing sustainability impacts of CE strategies.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Using Low-Cost Measurement Systems to Investigate Air Quality: A Case Study in Palapye, Botswana

Exposure to particulate air pollution is a major cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. In developing countries, the combustion of solid fuels is widely used as a source of energy, and this process can produce exposure to harmful levels of particulate matter with diameters smaller than 2.5 microns (PM 2.5 ). However, as countries develop, solid fuel may be replaced by centralized coal combustion, and vehicles burning diesel and gasoline may become common, changing the concentration and composition of PM 2.5 , which ultimately changes the population health effects. Therefore, there is a continuous need for in-situ monitoring of air pollution in developing nations, both to estimate human exposure and to monitor changes in air quality. In this study, we present measurements from a 5-week field experiment in Palapye, Botswana. We used a low-cost, highly portable instrument package to measure surface-based aerosol optical depth (AOD), real-time surface PM 2.5 concentrations using a third-party optical sensor, and time-integrated PM 2.5 concentration and composition by collecting PM 2.5 onto Teflon filters. Furthermore, we employed other low-cost measurements of real-time black carbon and time-integrated ammonia to help interpret the observed PM 2.5 composition and concentration information during the field experiment. We found that the average PM 2.5 concentration (9.5 μg∙m –3 ) was below the World Health Organization (WHO) annual limit, and this concentration closely agrees with estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) report estimates for this region. Sulfate aerosol and carbonaceous aerosol, likely from coal combustion and biomass burning, respectively, were the main contributors to PM 2.5 by mass (33% and 27% of total PM 2.5 mass, respectively). While these observed concentrations were on average below WHO guidelines, we found that the measurement site experienced higher concentrations of aerosol during first half our measurement period (14.5 μg∙m –3 ), which is classified as "moderately unhealthy" according to the WHO standard.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Impact of Stochastic Perturbations in Physics Variables for Predicting Surface Solar Irradiance

We present a probabilistic framework tailored for solar energy applications referred to as the Weather Research and Forecasting-Solar ensemble prediction system (WRF-Solar EPS). WRF-Solar EPS has been developed by introducing stochastic perturbations into the most relevant physical variables for solar irradiance predictions. In this study, we comprehensively discuss the impact of the stochastic perturbations of WRF-Solar EPS on solar irradiance forecasting compared to a deterministic WRF-Solar prediction (WRF-Solar DET), a stochastic ensemble using the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS), and a WRF-Solar multi-physics ensemble (WRF-Solar PHYS). The performances of the four forecasts are evaluated using irradiance retrievals from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) over the contiguous United States. We focus on the predictability of the day-ahead solar irradiance forecasts during the year of 2018. The results show that the ensemble forecasts improve the quality of the forecasts, compared to the deterministic prediction system, by accounting for the uncertainty derived by the ensemble members. However, the three ensemble systems are under-dispersive, producing unreliable and overconfident forecasts due to a lack of calibration. In particular, WRF-Solar EPS produces less optically thick clouds than the other forecasts, which explains the larger positive bias in WRF-Solar EPS (31.7 W/m 2 ) than in the other models (22.7–23.6 W/m 2 ). This study confirms that the WRF-Solar EPS reduced the forecast error by 7.5% in terms of the mean absolute error (MAE) compared to WRF-Solar DET, and provides in-depth comparisons of forecast abilities with the conventional scientific probabilistic approaches (i.e., SKEBS and a multi-physics ensemble). Guidelines for improving the performance of WRF-Solar EPS in the future are provided.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗