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Reflections on the anomalous ANITA events: the Antarctic subsurface as a possible explanation

The Antarctic Impulsive Transient Antenna (ANITA) balloon experiment was designed to detect radio signals initiated by high-energy neutrinos and cosmic ray (CR) air showers. These signals are typically discriminated by the polarization and phase inversions of the radio signal. The reflected signal from CRs suffer phase inversion compared to a direct ‘tau neutrino’ event. In this paper, we study subsurface reflection, which can occur without phase inversion, in the context of the two anomalous up-going events reported by ANITA. It is found that subsurface layers and firn density inversions may plausibly account for the events, while ice fabric layers and wind ablation crusts could also play a role. This hypothesis can be tested with radar surveying of the Antarctic region in the vicinity of the anomalous ANITA events. Future experiments should not use phase inversion as a sole criterion to discriminate between down-going and up-going events, unless the subsurface reflection properties are well understood.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sub-GLE Solar Particle Events and the Implications for Lightly-Shielded Systems Flown During an Era of Low Solar Activity

Many of the large space missions must be very rigorous in their designs to reduce risk from radiation damage as much as possible. Some ways of reducing this risk have been to build in multiple redundancies, purchase/develop radiation hardened electronics parts, and plan for worst case radiation environment scenarios. These methods work well for these ambitious missions that can afford the costs associated with these meticulous efforts. However, there have been more small spacecraft and CubeSats with smaller duration missions entering the space arena, which can take some additional risks, but cannot afford to implement all of these risk-reducing methods. Therefore, one way to quantify the radiation exposure risk for these smaller spacecraft would be to investigate the radiation environment pertinent to the mission to better understand these radiation exposures, rather than always designing to the infrequent, worst-case environment. In this study, we have investigated 34 historical solar particle events (1974-2010) that occurred during a time period when the sun spot number (SSN) was less than 30. These events contain Ground Level Events (GLE), sub-GLEs, and sub-sub-GLEs(sup 1-3). GLEs are extremely energetic solar particle events (SPEs) having proton energies often extending into the several GeV range and producing secondary particles in the atmosphere, mostly neutrons, observed with ground station neutron monitors. Sub-GLE events are less energetic, extending into the several hundred MeV range, but without producing detectable levels of secondary atmospheric particles. Sub-sub GLEs are even less energetic with an observable increase in protons at energies greater than 30 MeV, but no observable proton flux above 300 MeV. The spectra for these events were fitted using a double power law fit in particle rigidity, called the Band fit method. The differential spectra were then input into the NASA Langley Research Center HZETRN 2005, which is a high-energy particle transport/dose code, to determine the dose in various thicknesses of aluminum, representing the spacecraft. This paper will detail the absorbed dose results of each of these environments, as well as analyze the data to better understand the doses over small thicknesses that are more relevant to small spacecraft and satellites, such as CubeSats. In addition, we will discuss the implications of these data and provide some recommendations that may be useful to spacecraft designers of these smaller spacecraft/CubeSat-type missions.

Atwell, William↗

Investigating the potential of a global precipitation forecast to inform landslide prediction

Extreme rainfall events within landslide-prone areas can be catastrophic, resulting in loss of property, infrastructure, and life. A global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model provides routine near-real time estimates of landslide hazard using Integrated Multi-Satellite Precipitation Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Mission (IMERG). However, it does not provide information on potential landslide hazard in the future. Forecasting potential landslide events at a global scale presents an area of open research. This study compares a global precipitation forecast provided by NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) with near-real time satellite precipitation estimates. The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor gauge corrected (MRMS-GC) reference is used to assess the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The forecast lead time of 24hrs is considered, with a focus on extreme precipitation events. The performance of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast products is assessed in terms of the probability of detection, success ratio, critical success index and hit bias as well as continuous statistics. The results show that seasonality influences the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products. Comparison of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast globally as well as in several event case studies (Colombia, southeast Asia, and Tajikistan) reveals that GEOS-Forecast detects extreme rainfall more frequently relative to IMERG for these specific analyses. For recent landslide points across the globe, the 24hr accumulated precipitation forecast >100 mm corresponds well with near-real time daily accumulated IMERG precipitation estimates. GEOS-Forecast and IMERG precipitation match more closely for tropical cyclones than for other types of storms. The main intention of this study is to assess the viability of using a global forecast for landslide predictions and understand the extent of the variability between these products to inform where we would expect the landslide modeling results to most prominently diverge. Results of this study will be used to inform how forecasted precipitation estimates can be incorporated into the LHASA model to provide the first global predictive view of landslide hazards.

S. Khan↗

Investigating the Potential of A Global Precipitation Forecast to Inform Landslide Prediction

Extreme rainfall events within landslide-prone areas can be catastrophic, resulting in loss of property, infra-structure, and life. A global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model provides routine near-real time estimates of landslide hazard using Integrated Multi-Satellite Precipitation Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Mission (IMERG). However, it does not provide information on potential landslide hazard in the future. Forecasting potential landslide events at a global scale presents an area of open research. This study compares a global precipitation forecast provided by NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) with near-real time satellite precipitation estimates. The Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor gauge corrected (MRMS-GC) reference is used to assess the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products over the contiguous United States (CONUS). The forecast lead time of 24hrs is considered, with a focus on extreme precipitation events. The performance of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast products is assessed in terms of the probability of detection, success ratio, critical success index and hit bias as well as continuous statistics. The results show that seasonality influences the performance of both satellite and model-based precipitation products. Comparison of IMERG and GEOS-Forecast globally as well as in several event case studies (Colombia, southeast Asia, and Tajikistan) reveals that GEOS-Forecast detects extreme rainfall more frequently relative to IMERG for these specific analyses. For recent landslide points across the globe, the 24hr accumulated precipitation forecast >100 mm corresponds well with near-real time daily accumulated IMERG precipitation estimates. GEOS-Forecast and IMERG precipitation match more closely for tropical cyclones than for other types of storms. The main intention of this study is to assess the viability of using a global forecast for landslide predictions and understand the extent of the variability between these products to inform where we would expect the landslide modeling results to most prominently diverge. Results of this study will be used to inform how forecasted precipitation estimates can be incorporated into the LHASA model to provide the first global predictive view of landslide hazards.

S. Khan↗

Testing lepton flavor universality at future Z factories

As one of the hypothetical principles in the Standard Model (SM), lepton flavor universality (LFU) should be tested with a precision as high as possible such that the physics violating this principle can be fully examined. The run of a Z factory at a future e + e − collider, such as the Circular Electron-Positron Collider or Future Circular Collider (electron/positron), provides a great opportunity to perform this task because of the large statistics and high reconstruction efficiencies for b hadrons at the Z pole. In this paper, we present a systematic study on the LFU test in future Z factories. The goal is threefold. First, we study the sensitivities of measuring the LFU-violating observables of b → c τ ν , i.e., R J / ψ , R D s , R D s * , and R Λ c , where τ decays muonically. For this purpose, we develop the strategies for event reconstruction, based on the track information significantly. Second, we explore the sensitivity robustness against detector performance and its potential improvement with the message of event shape or beyond the b -hadron decays. A picture is drawn on the variation of analysis sensitivities with the detector tracking resolution and soft photon detectability, and the impact of Fox-Wolfram moments is studied on the measurement of relevant flavor events. Finally, we interpret the projected sensitivities in the SM effective field theory, by combining the LFU tests of b → c τ ν and the measurements of b → s τ + τ − and b → s ν ¯ ν . We show that the limits on the LFU-violating energy scale can be pushed up to ∼ O ( 10 ) TeV for ≲ O ( 1 ) Wilson coefficients at Tera- Z . Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Examining the Feasibility of Identifying Tau Neutrino Charged Current Events in the DUNE Far Detector

Neutrinos began as theoretical, massless particles, and since their first detection they have continued to be the subject of various experiments. One such experiment is DUNE, which is a long baseline neutrino experiment with the goal of studying neutrino properties, such as neutrino oscillation parameters. In this work, two projects were completed, one dealing with the hardware of DUNE and the other dealing with neutrino simulations. For the hardware project, we designed a quality control method for testing adaptor boards which make up part of the Far Detector circuit boards. This method was completed and prototyped, however was not implemented as planned due to funding changes. For the simulation project, we simulated ντ , νµ, and νe CC interactions using two simulation methods (stand alone GENIE and a full detector simulation) in order to begin to understand what a ντ CC event would look like in the Far Detector and create an initial list of kinematic properties that can be used for this purpose. We found that there is not a complete understanding of what is occurring in the full detector simulation. We also found that there is promise in using kinematic properties to be able to differentiate ντ CC events, however properties beyond those covered here, as well as a more accurate simulation, will be required for any definitive statistical statements.

Choate, Sarah↗

Classical novae detected in the IRAS survey

Of the four classical novae presently identified as having accurately known optical positions with counterparts in the IRAS Point Source Catalog, two correspond to events observed by IRAS within one year of their respective optical maxima; these are noted to be the first classical novae detected at IR wavelengths longer than 20 microns. The novae are Sgr 1982, Mus 1983, FH Ser (1970) and HR Del (1967), of which the latter two were also detected by IRAS. Mus 1983 is noted to have IR emission characteristics that are consistent with a free-free spectrum, as opposed to dust emission. The behavior of this and the Sgr 1982 nova is consistent with a previously suggested correlation between the inferred mass of heated dust and luminosity/speed class.

Dinerstein, Harriet L.↗

Evaluating Radiation Impact on Superconducting Transmon Qubits in Above and Underground Facilities

Superconducting qubits can be sensitive to sudden energy deposits into the substrate from cosmic rays and ambient radioactivity. While previous studies have primarily focused on exploring correlated effects over time and distance due to cosmic rays, this study uniquely offers a direct comparison of a transmon qubit's response at Fermilab SQMS above-ground facilities and the deep-underground Gran Sasso Laboratory (INFN-LNGS, Italy). Despite the vastly different radiation environments, we observe a similar average qubit lifetime (T1) of approximately 80 microseconds at both sites. We then employ a fast decay detection protocol and investigate the time structure, sensitivity, and relative rates of triggered events due to radiation versus intrinsic noise. We compare the above and underground performance of several high-coherence qubits with similar designs. Our findings reveal no significant difference in events with radiation-like signatures between above-ground and underground conditions for these sapphire and niobium-based transmon qubits. This suggests that most such events are likely due to other noise sources, which predominantly contribute to single-qubit errors in contemporary transmon qubits. By exposing the qubits to gamma sources with varying activity levels, we further evaluate their response to radiation in a low-background environment. The results show that qubits can indeed detect particle impacts; however, this capability is only realized by substantially reducing other noise sources, which in turn affects detection efficiency [1].

Roy, Tanay↗

Rotating Pip Detection and Stall Warning in High-Speed Compressors Using Structure Function

A statistic for both rotating pip and incipient stall detection, called Structure Function is introduced for use in high speed research compressor environments. Experimental studies on stall inception processes have long observed two types of pre-stall compressor activity. Presently there exist methods for indicating modal stall precursive events in the compressor. This is a first application of a new method to detect rotating pip activity prior to stall in research compressors. The algorithm requires a very short sample of data to distinguish pip activity prior to stall, and thus may be used in a real time application. Additionally, this Structure Function algorithm is also used as a single sensor stall warning method under a variety of operating conditions, including clean inlet conditions, radially and circumferentially distorted inlet conditions, and in examples of steady air injection along the casing, and controlled air injection conditions. Structure Function provides a potential advantage over linear spectral techniques and wavelet algorithms for stall detection due to the simplicity of the algorithm and because it does not rely on a priori knowledge of frequency content.

Bright, Michelle M.↗

Candidate Electromagnetic Counterpart to the Binary Black Hole Merger Gravitational-Wave Event S190521g

We report the first plausible optical electromagnetic counterpart to a (candidate) binary black hole merger. Detected by the Zwicky Transient Facility, the electromagnetic flare is consistent with expectations for a kicked binary black hole merger in the accretion disk of an active galactic nucleus [B. McKernan, K. E. S. Ford, I. Bartoset al., Astrophys. J. Lett.884, L50 (2019)] and is unlikely [<O(0.01%))] due to intrinsic variability of this source. The lack of color evolution implies that it is not a supernova and instead is strongly suggestive of a constant temperature shock. Other false-positive events, such as microlensing ora tidal disruption event, are ruled out or constrained to be <O(0.1%). If the flare is associated withS190521g, we find plausible values of total mass M(BBH) ∼ 100 Mꙩ, kick velocity v(k) ∼ 200 km/s at θ ∼ 60° in a disk with aspect ratio H/a ∼ 0.01(i.e., disk height H at radius a) and gas density ρ ∼ 10^(−10)g/cu.cm. The merger could have occurred at a disk migration trap (a ∼ 700 r(g); r(g) ≡ GM(SMBH)/sq.c, where M(SMBH) is the mass of the active galactic nucleus supermassive black hole). The combination of parameters implies a significant spin for at least one of the black holes in S190521g. The timing of our spectroscopy prevents useful constraints on broad-line asymmetry due to an off-center flare. We predict a repeat flare in this source due to a reencountering with the disk in ∼ 1.6 yr(M(SMBH)/10^(8) Mꙩ)(a/10^(3)r(g))^(3/2).

M. J. Graham↗

Cherenkov and Transition Radiation as Low-Energy Background Sources in SuperCDMS Detectors

The Weakly Interacting Massive Particle (WIMP) has historically been a prime candidate for dark matter due to its elegant compatibility with the Minimally Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). Recent dark matter experiments have ruled out much of the GeV-TeV mass range predicted by the MSSM, however, and the newest generation of direct detection experiments, such as SuperCDMS SNOLAB, have begunto explore sub-GeV dark matter. As experiments push towards lower masses, sensitivity to eV-scale electron recoil events has become increasingly important. A variety of unexplained excesses at energy deposits of 1-100 eV have been found inmany such low-mass experiments, across different detection techniques and at different excess rates. These low-energy events are not thought to be dark matter, and they must be understood and effectively removed to further improve detector energy resolution. This thesis will outline the simulation of one possible source of low-energy excess at SuperCDMS: optical photons produced from charges in uniform motion, specifically from Cherenkov radiation (CR), transition radiation (TR), and the intermediate hybrid transition-Cherenkov radiation (HR). In the latter case, the standard formulae for HR contain divergences at certain angles in transparent media, which are an artifact of their derivation and become problematic to simulate. To rsolve this, we present a novel approach to normalize the divergent HR peaks, which allows HR to transition smoothly between TR and CR in a numerical simulation. We also add TR and CR as a physics process to the SuperCDMS Monte Carlo simulation package SuperSim, based on the Geant4 simulation toolkit. To verify the physics of our addition, we show some test simulations in comparison to theoretical predictions of optical radiation intensity. We also use the simulation to make some preliminary predictions on the contribution of TR and CR to the low energy background, with the expectation that more thorough analyses will be conducted in the future.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

All-Sky Search for Gravitational-Wave Bursts in the First Joint LIGO-GEO-Virgo Run

We present results from an aU-sky search for unmodeled gravitational-wave bursts in the data collected by the LIGO, GEO 600 and Virgo detectors between November 2006 and October 2007. The search is performed. by three different analysis algorithms over the frequency band 50 - 6000 Hz. Data are analyzed for times with at least two of the four LIGO-Virgo detectors in coincident operation, with a total live time of 266 days, No events produced by the search algorithms survive the selection cuts. We set a frequentist upper limit on the rate of gravitational-wave bursts impinging on our network of detectors. When combined with the previous LIGO search of the data collected between November 2005 and November 2006, the upper limit on the rate of detectable gra.vitational. wave bursts in the 64-2048 Hz band is 2,0 events per year at 90% confidence. We also present event rate versus strength exclusion plots for several types of plausible burst waveforms. The sensitivity of the combined search is expressed in terms of the root-sum-squared strain amplitude for a variety of simulated waveforms and lies in the range 6 X 10(exp -22) Hz(exp - 1/2) to 2 X 10(exp -20) Hz(exp -l/2). This is the first untriggered burst search to use data from the LIGO and Virgo detectors together, and the most sensitive untriggered burst search performed so far.

Camp, J. B.↗

Kilonova Detection

The first observation of gravitational waves (GW) from a binary neutron star collision, known as GW170817, was detected by Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) and Virgo GW observatories. This event marked a profound discovery of the kilonova, which occurs when two neutron stars collide, resulting in an energetically explosive release of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) and emitting bright electromagnetic radiation. This project focuses on assessing how well kilonovae will be detected in the Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) at the Vera C. Rubin Observatory. By using Kasen models with varying ejecta mass, ejecta velocity, and lanthanide fraction, we analyze these 329 models and create kilonova light curves to assess the number of visible kilonovae for each band, based on the minimum magnitude at various redshifts.

Khalid, Anna↗

Internal Fragments Generated by Electron Ionization Dissociation Enhance Protein Top-Down Mass Spectrometry

Top-down proteomics by mass spectrometry (MS) involves the mass measurement of an intact protein followed by subsequent activation of the protein to generate product ions. Electron-based fragmentation methods like electron capture dissociation and electron transfer dissociation are widely used for these types of analyses. Recently, electron ionization dissociation (EID), which utilizes higher energy electrons (>20 eV) has been suggested to be more efficient for top-down protein fragmentation compared to other electron-based dissociation methods. In this paper, we demonstrate that the use of EID enhances protein fragmentation and subsequent detection of protein fragments. Protein product ions can form by either single cleavage events, resulting in terminal fragments containing the C-terminus or N-terminus of the protein, or by multiple cleavage events to give rise to internal fragments that include neither the C-terminus nor the N-terminus of the protein. Conventionally, internal fragments have been disregarded, as reliable assignments of these fragments were limited. Here, we demonstrate that internal fragments generated by EID can account for ~20–40% of the mass spectral signals detected by top-down EID-MS experiments. By including internal fragments, the extent of the protein sequence that can be explained from a single tandem mass spectrum increases from ~50 to ~99% for 29 kDa carbonic anhydrase II and 8.6 kDa ubiquitin. When searching for internal fragments during data analysis, previously unassigned peaks can be readily and accurately assigned to confirm a given protein sequence and to enhance the utility of top-down protein sequencing experiments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Gamma-ray burst constraints on the galactic frequency of extrasolar Oort Clouds

With the strong Compton Gamma-Ray Observatory/Burst and Transient Source Experiment (CGRO/BATSE) evidence that most gamma-ray bursts do not come from galactic neutron stars, models involving the accretion of a comet onto a neutron star (NS) no longer appear to be strong contenders for explaining the majority of bursts. If this is the case, then it is worth asking whether the lack of an observed galactic gamma-ray burst population provides a useful constraint on the number of comets and comet clouds in the galaxy. Owing to the previously unrecognized structural weakness of cometary nuclei, we find the capture cross sections for comet-NS events to be much higher than previously published estimates, with tidal breakup at distances R(sub b) approx. equals 4 x 10(exp 10) cm from the NS. As a result, impacts of comets onto field NSs penetrating the Oort Clouds of other stars are found to dominate all other galactic NS-comet capture rates by a factor of 100. This in turn predicts that if comet clouds are common, there should be a significant population of repeater sources with (1) a galactic distribution, (2) space-correlated repetition, and (3) a wide range of peak luminosities and luminosity time histories. If all main sequence stars have Oort Clouds like our own, we predict approximately 4000 such repeater sources in the Milky Way at any time, each repeating on time scales of months to years. Based on estimates of the sensitivity of the CGRO/BATSE instrument and assuming isotropic gamma-ray beaming from such events, we estimate that a population of approximately 20-200 of these galactic NS-Oort Cloud gamma-ray repeater sources should be detectable by CGRO. In addition, if giant planet formation is common in the galaxy, we estimate that the accretion of isolated comets injected to the interstellar medium by giant planet formation should produce an additional source of galactic, nonrepeating, events. Comparing these estimates to the 3-4 soft gamma-ray repeater sources detected by BATSE, one is forced to conclude that (1) comet impacts on NSs are inefficient at producing gamma rays; or (2) the gamma rays from such events are highly beamed; or (3) the fraction of stars in the galaxy with Oort Clouds like our own is not higher than a few percent.

Shull, J. Michael↗

Source Physics Experiment: Rock Valley Interferometric Synthetic Aperture RADAR Earthquake Detection Study

Seismic signals from 1993 show a series of magnitude (Mw) 3.7 or less seismic events in Rock Valley on the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). Historic synthetic aperture radar images of that location were found that could provide interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) measures of the ground height during 1993. Given this historic SAR imagery, we explore answering the question if ground movement from the 1993 Rock Valley earthquake activity could be sensed by remote sensing means. Finding earthquake surface movement would assist in locating the Rock Valley fault and the 1993 earthquake hypocenter where the Source Physics Experiment Phase III series of experiments will be conducted. In this report, we show that InSAR can sense very small height differences, and for the European Radar Satellite-1 InSAR collections during 1992 and 1993 over Rock Valley earth surface movements were measured with 8 mm uplift and 12.5 mm subsidence over isolated areas. One of these earth movement areas coincides with an InSAR image pair coherence drop between March 5, 1993 and June 18, 1993. The coherence drop is over an approximately 13 square km area south southeast of Skull Mountain centered at 36° 43' 30" N latitude and 116° 05' 00" W longitude. Measured small surface movement and a loss of InSAR coherence may be caused by the series of earthquakes. The location of these InSAR detections may also coincide with water drainage or erosion displacement. There are no records to disambiguate the earthquake and erosion earth surface motion possibilities. Therefore, the InSAR findings of earth surface movement by InSAR are inconclusive.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Detection of DoS Attacks Using ARFIMA Modeling of GOOSE Communication in IEC 61850 Substations

Integration of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) in modern smart grids (SGs) offers many advantages including the use of renewables and an effective way to protect, control and monitor the energy transmission and distribution. To reach an optimal operation of future energy systems, availability, integrity and confidentiality of data should be guaranteed. Research on the cyber-physical security of electrical substations based on IEC 61850 is still at an early stage. In the present work, we first model the network traffic data in electrical substations, then, we present a statistical Anomaly Detection (AD) method to detect Denial of Service (DoS) attacks against the Generic Object Oriented Substation Event (GOOSE) network communication. According to interpretations on the self-similarity and the Long-Range Dependency (LRD) of the data, an Auto-Regressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA) model was shown to describe well the GOOSE communication in the substation process network. Based on this ARFIMA-model and in view of cyber-physical security, an effective model-based AD method is developed and analyzed. Two variants of the statistical AD considering statistical hypothesis testing based on the Generalized Likelihood Ratio Test (GLRT) and the cumulative sum (CUSUM) are presented to detect flooding attacks that might affect the availability of the data. Our work presents a novel AD method, with two different variants, tailored to the specific features of the GOOSE traffic in IEC 61850 substations. The statistical AD is capable of detecting anomalies at unknown change times under the realistic assumption of unknown model parameters. The performance of both variants of the AD method is validated and assessed using data collected from a simulation case study. We perform several Monte-Carlo simulations under different noise variances. The detection delay is provided for each detector and it represents the number of discrete time samples after which an anomaly is detected. In fact, our statistical AD method with both variants (CUSUM and GLRT) has around half the false positive rate and a smaller detection delay when compared with two of the closest works found in the literature. Our AD approach based on the GLRT detector has the smallest false positive rate among all considered approaches. Whereas, our AD approach based on the CUSUM test has the lowest false negative rate thus the best detection rate. Depending on the requirements as well as the costs of false alarms or missed anomalies, both variants of our statistical detection method can be used and are further analyzed using composite detection metrics.

IEC 61850 electrical substations↗

Cherenkov Telescope Array sensitivity to the putative millisecond pulsar population responsible for the Galactic Centre excess

ABSTRACT The leading explanation of the Fermi Galactic Centre γ-ray excess is the extended emission from an unresolved population of millisecond pulsars (MSPs) in the Galactic bulge. Such a population would, along with the prompt γ-rays, also inject large quantities of electrons/positrons (e±) into the interstellar medium. These e± could potentially inverse-Compton (IC) scatter ambient photons into γ-rays that fall within the sensitivity range of the upcoming Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA). In this article, we examine the detection potential of CTA to this signature by making a realistic estimation of the systematic uncertainties on the Galactic diffuse emission model at TeV-scale γ-ray energies. We forecast that, in the event that e± injection spectra are harder than E−2, CTA has the potential to robustly discover the IC signature of a putative Galactic bulge MSP population sufficient to explain the Galactic Centre excess for e± injection efficiencies in the range of ≈2.9–74.1 per cent, or higher, depending on the level of mismodelling of the Galactic diffuse emission components. On the other hand, for spectra softer than E−2.5, a reliable CTA detection would require an unphysically large e± injection efficiency of ${\gtrsim} 158{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$. However, even this pessimistic conclusion may be avoided in the plausible event that MSP observational and/or modelling uncertainties can be reduced. We further find that, in the event that an IC signal were detected, CTA can successfully discriminate between an MSP and a dark matter origin for the radiating e±.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗