An Efficient Multifidelity Model for Assessing Risk Probabilities in Power Systems under Rare Events
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Engineering - Power transmission and distribution,↗
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Seasonality of Precipitation over Himalayan Watersheds in CORDEX South Asia and their Driving CMIP5 Experiments
Since the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiments exhibit limited skill in reproducing the statistical properties of prevailing precipitation regimes over the major Himalayan watersheds (Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra and Mekong), this study evaluates the anticipated added skill of their dynamically refined simulations performed under the framework of Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiments for South Asia (CX-SA). For this, the fidelity of eight CX-SA experiments against their six driving CMIP5 experiments is assessed for the historical period (1971–2005) in terms of time-dependent statistical properties (onset/retreat timings and rapid fractional accumulation—RFA) of the dominant summer monsoonal precipitation regime (MPR). Further, a self-defining seasonality index (SI), which is a product of precipitation and the distance of its actual distribution relative to its uniform distribution (relative entropy—RE), has been computed for MPR, westerly precipitation regime (WPR) and annual precipitation. The time evolution of precipitation, RE and SI has also been analyzed. Results suggest that CX-SA experiments simulate even higher wet biases than their driving CMIP5 experiments over all study basins, mainly due to higher wet biases simulated over the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau. Most of the CX-SA experiments suggest unrealistic timings of the monsoon onset that are far earlier than their driving CMIP5 experiments for all basins. Generally, CX-SA experiments feature higher underestimation of RFA slope, RE and SI, distancing their driving CMIP5 experiments farther from observations. Interestingly, regardless of the diverse skill of CMIP5 experiments, their fine scale CX-SA experiments exhibit quite a similar skill when downscaled by the same regional climate model (RCM), indicating RCM’s ability to considerably alter the driving datasets. Lastly, these findings emphasize on improving the fidelity of simulated precipitation regimes over the Himalayan watersheds by exploiting the potential of RCMs in term of microphysics, resolutions and convective closures, and preferably, on resolving the crucial fine scale processes further down to their representative (meso-to-local) scales.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The Impacts of Single-Scattering and Microphysical Properties of Ice Particles Smaller Than 100 µm on the Bulk Radiative Properties of Tropical Cirrus
There are large uncertainties in the single-scattering (i.e., morphologies) and microphysical (i.e., concentrations) properties of ice particles whose size are less than ~100 µm. Insufficient resolutions of the most advanced cloud probes (e.g., cloud particle imager) cannot resolve the micrometer-scale morphologies of small ice particles. Further, the shattering of large ice particles on probes’ inlets or tips causes uncertainties in the measurement of the concentrations of small ice particles. These uncertainties have large impacts on the single-scattering and microphysical properties of small ice particles that are utilized to quantify the bulk radiative properties of cirrus. In this study, the impacts of uncertainties in the morphologies and concentrations of small ice particles on the bulk radiative properties of tropical cirrus were calculated using measurements acquired during the Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment. Five different models (i.e., budding Buckyball, Chebyshev particle, droxtal, Gaussian random sphere, and sphere) that represent the shapes of small ice particles were used to calculate the single-scattering properties. The bulk radiative properties, average phase-function ($\overline{P_{11}}$), and average asymmetry parameter ($\overline{g}$) were computed by combining the measured size/habit distributions and the calculated single-scattering properties of ice particles. The impacts of the selection of varying morphologies of small particles on the bulk radiative properties were quantified. For these calculations, the possible range of the concentrations of small ice particles which depend on the degree of shattered large particles were also used. The impacts of varying the single-scattering properties of small ice particles on the bulk radiative properties were the largest in the upper parts of cirrus (T < –60 °C), while they were the smallest in the lower parts of cirrus (–45 < T < –30 °C). The impacts of uncertainties in the concentrations of small ice particles on the bulk radiative properties were largest in the lower parts of cirrus (–45 < T < –30 °C), whereas they were smallest in the upper parts of cirrus (T < –60 °C). The effect of shattering was maximum in the lower parts of cirrus, whilst it was minimum in the upper parts of cirrus. The combined impacts of uncertainties in the single-scattering (i.e., morphologies) and microphysical (i.e., concentrations) properties of small ice particles revealed variations of up to 11.2% (127.1%; 67.3%) of the integrated intensity in the forward (sideward; backward) angles in $\overline{P_{11}}$ and a corresponding change in $\overline{g}$ by up to 12.61%.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
ISM EXCITATION AND METALLICITY OF STAR-FORMING GALAXIES AT Z ≃ 3.3 FROM NEAR-IR SPECTROSCOPY
We study the relationship between stellar mass, star formation rate (SFR), ionization state, and gas-phase metallicity for a sample of 41 normal star-forming galaxies at 3 ≲ z ≲ 3.7. The gas-phase oxygen abundance, ionization parameter, and electron density of ionized gas are derived from rest-frame optical strong emission lines measured on near-infrared spectra obtained with Keck/Multi-Object Spectrograph for Infra-Red Exploration. We remove the effect of these strong emission lines in the broadband fluxes to compute stellar masses via spectral energy distribution fitting, while the SFR is derived from the dust-corrected ultraviolet luminosity. The ionization parameter is weakly correlated with the specific SFR, but otherwise the ionization parameter and electron density do not correlate with other global galaxy properties such as stellar mass, SFR, and metallicity. The mass–metallicity relation (MZR) at z ≃ 3.3 shows lower metallicity by ≃0.7 dex than that at z = 0 at the same stellar mass. Our sample shows an offset by ≃0.3 dex from the locally defined mass–metallicity–SFR relation, indicating that simply extrapolating such a relation to higher redshift may predict an incorrect evolution of MZR. Furthermore, within the uncertainties we find no SFR–metallicity correlation, suggesting a less important role of SFR in controlling the metallicity at high redshift. We finally investigate the redshift evolution of the MZR by using the model by Lilly et al., finding that the observed evolution from z = 0 to z ≃ 3.3 can be accounted for by the model assuming a weak redshift evolution of the star formation efficiency.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
THE QUEST FOR DUSTY STAR-FORMING GALAXIES AT HIGH REDSHIFT z ≳ 4
We exploit the continuity equation approach and “main-sequence” star formation timescales to show that the observed high abundance of galaxies with stellar masses ≳ a few 10{sup 10} M {sub ⊙} at redshift z ≳ 4 implies the existence of a galaxy population featuring large star formation rates (SFRs) ψ ≳ 10{sup 2} M {sub ⊙} yr{sup −1} in heavily dust-obscured conditions. These galaxies constitute the high-redshift counterparts of the dusty star-forming population already surveyed for z ≲ 3 in the far-IR band by the Herschel Space Observatory . We work out specific predictions for the evolution of the corresponding stellar mass and SFR functions out to z ∼ 10, determining that the number density at z ≲ 8 for SFRs ψ ≳ 30 M {sub ⊙} yr{sup −1} cannot be estimated relying on the UV luminosity function alone, even when standard corrections for dust extinction based on the UV slope are applied. We compute the number counts and redshift distributions (including galaxy-scale gravitational lensing) of this galaxy population, and show that current data from the AzTEC - LABOCA , SCUBA-2 , and ALMA - SPT surveys are already addressing it. We demonstrate how an observational strategy based on color preselection in the far-IR or (sub-)millimeter band with Herschel and SCUBA-2 , supplemented by photometric data from on-source observations with ALMA , can allow us to reconstruct the bright end of the SFR functions out to z ≲ 8. In parallel, such a challenging task can be managed by exploiting current UV surveys in combination with (sub-)millimeter observations by ALMA and NIKA2 and/or radio observations by SKA and its precursors.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
THE CHANDRA COSMOS-LEGACY SURVEY: THE z > 3 SAMPLE
We present the largest high-redshift (3 < z < 6.85) sample of X-ray-selected active galactic nuclei (AGNs) on a contiguous field, using sources detected in the Chandra COSMOS-Legacy survey. The sample contains 174 sources, 87 with spectroscopic redshift and the other 87 with photometric redshift (z {sub phot}). In this work, we treat z {sub phot} as a probability-weighted sum of contributions, adding to our sample the contribution of sources with z {sub phot} < 3 but z {sub phot} probability distribution >0 at z > 3. We compute the number counts in the observed 0.5–2 keV band, finding a decline in the number of sources at z > 3 and constraining phenomenological models of the X-ray background. We compute the AGN space density at z > 3 in two different luminosity bins. At higher luminosities (log L (2–10 keV) > 44.1 erg s{sup −1}), the space density declines exponentially, dropping by a factor of ∼20 from z ∼ 3 to z ∼ 6. The observed decline is ∼80% steeper at lower luminosities (43.55 erg s{sup −1} < logL(2–10 keV) < 44.1 erg s{sup −1}) from z ∼ 3 to z ∼ 4.5. We study the space density evolution dividing our sample into optically classified Type 1 and Type 2 AGNs. At log L (2–10 keV) > 44.1 erg s{sup −1}, unobscured and obscured objects may have different evolution with redshift, with the obscured component being three times higher at z ∼ 5. Finally, we compare our space density with predictions of quasar activation merger models, whose calibration is based on optically luminous AGNs. These models significantly overpredict the number of expected AGNs at log L (2–10 keV) > 44.1 erg s{sup −1} with respect to our data.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Carbon cycle extremes accelerate weakening of the land carbon sink in the late 21st century
Increasing surface temperature could lead to enhanced evaporation, reduced soil moisture availability, and more frequent droughts and heat waves. The spatiotemporal co-occurrence of such effects further drives extreme anomalies in vegetation productivity and net land carbon storage. However, the impacts of climate change on extremes in net biospheric production (NBP) over longer time periods are unknown. Using the percentile threshold on the probability distribution curve of NBP anomalies, we computed negative and positive extremes in NBP. Here we show that due to climate warming, about 88% of global regions will experience a larger magnitude of negative NBP extremes than positive NBP extremes toward the end of 2100, which accelerate the weakening of the land carbon sink. Our analysis indicates the frequency of negative extremes associated with declines in biospheric productivity was larger than positive extremes, especially in the tropics. While the overall impact of warming at high latitudes is expected to increase plant productivity and carbon uptake, high-temperature anomalies increasingly induce negative NBP extremes toward the end of the 21st century. Using regression analysis, we found soil moisture anomalies to be the most dominant individual driver of NBP extremes. The compound effect of hotness, dryness, and fire caused extremes at more than 50% of the total grid cells. The larger proportion of negative NBP extremes raises a concern about whether the Earth is capable of increasing vegetation production with a growing human population and rising demand for plant material for food, fiber, fuel, and building materials. The increasing proportion of negative NBP extremes highlights the consequences not only of reduction in total carbon uptake capacity but also of conversion of land to a carbon source.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Fusion Simulation Program Execution Plan
The overall science goal of the FSP is to develop predictive simulation capability for magnetically confined fusion plasmas at an unprecedented level of integration and fidelity. This will directly support and enable effective U.S. participation in research related to the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) and the overall mission of delivering practical fusion energy. The FSP will address a rich set of scientific issues together with experimental programs, producing validated integrated physics results. This is very well aligned with the mission of the ITER Organization to coordinate with its members the integrated modeling and control of fusion plasmas, including benchmarking and validation activities. Initial FSP research will focus on two critical areas: 1) the plasma edge and 2) whole device modeling including disruption avoidance. The first of these problems involves the narrow plasma boundary layer and its complex interactions with the plasma core and the surrounding material wall. The second requires development of a computationally tractable, but comprehensive model that describes all equilibrium and dynamic processes at a sufficient level of detail to provide useful prediction of the temporal evolution of fusion plasma experiments. The initial driver for the whole device model (WDM) will be prediction and avoidance of discharge-terminating disruptions, especially at high performance, which are a critical impediment to successful operation of machines like ITER. If disruptions prove unable to be avoided, their associated dynamics and effects will be addressed in the next phase of the FSP. The FSP plan targets the needed modeling capabilities by developing Integrated Science Applications (ISAs) specific to their needs. The Pedestal-Boundary model will include boundary magnetic topology, cross-field transport of multi-species plasmas, parallel plasma transport, neutral transport, atomic physics and interactions with the plasma wall. It will address the origins and structure of the plasma electric field, rotation, the L-H transition, and the wide variety of pedestal relaxation mechanisms. The Whole Device Model will predict the entire discharge evolution given external actuators (i.e., magnets, power supplies, heating, current drive and fueling systems) and control strategies. Based on components operating over a range of physics fidelity, the WDM will model the plasma equilibrium, plasma sources, profile evolution, linear stability and nonlinear evolution toward a disruption (but not the full disruption dynamics). The plan assumes that, as the FSP matures and demonstrates success, the program will evolve and grow, enabling additional science problems to be addressed. The next set of integration opportunities could include: 1) Simulation of disruption dynamics and their effects; 2) Prediction of core profile including 3D effects, mesoscale dynamics and integration with the edge plasma; 3) Computation of non-thermal particle distributions, self-consistent with fusion, radio frequency (RF) and neutral beam injection (NBI) sources, magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) and short-wavelength turbulence.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Distributed parallel messaging for multiprocessor systems
A method and apparatus for distributed parallel messaging in a parallel computing system. The apparatus includes, at each node of a multiprocessor network, multiple injection messaging engine units and reception messaging engine units, each implementing a DMA engine and each supporting both multiple packet injection into and multiple reception from a network, in parallel. The reception side of the messaging unit (MU) includes a switch interface enabling writing of data of a packet received from the network to the memory system. The transmission side of the messaging unit, includes switch interface for reading from the memory system when injecting packets into the network.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
SBIR DOE 08-039a Phase II Final Report - CodeBook: Accelerating Transformations in How the World Does Scienc
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96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
Evidence of Long Range Dependence and Self-similarity in Urban Traffic Systems
Transportation simulation technologies should accurately model traffic demand, distribution, and assignment parame- ters for urban environment simulation. These three param- eters significantly impact transportation engineering bench- mark process, are also critical in realizing realistic traffic modeling situations. In this paper, we model and charac- terize traffic density distribution of thousands of locations around the world. The traffic densities are generated from millions of images collected over several years and processed using computer vision techniques. The resulting traffic den- sity distribution time series are then analyzed. It is found using the goodness-of-fit test that the traffic density dis- tributions follows heavy-tail models such as Log-gamma, Log-logistic, and Weibull in over 90% of analyzed locations. Moreover, a heavy-tail gives rise to long-range dependence and self-similarity, which we studied by estimating the Hurst exponent (H). Our analysis based on seven different Hurst estimators strongly indicate that the traffic distribution pat- terns are stochastically self-similar (0.5 H 1.0). We believe this is an important finding that will influence the design and development of the next generation traffic simu- lation techniques and also aid in accurately modeling traffic engineering of urban systems. In addition, it shall provide a much needed input for the development of smart cities.
long range dependence↗
Integrated Predictive Systems for Solar Energy with Modeling, Post Processing and Machine Learning
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14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
VERA-CS Modeling and Simulation of PWR Main Steam Line Break Core Response to DNB
The Virtual Environment for Reactor Applications core simulator (VERA-CS) being developed by the Consortium for the Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors (CASL) includes coupled neutronics, thermal-hydraulics, and fuel temperature components with an isotopic depletion capability. The neutronics capability employed is based on MPACT, a three-dimensional (3-D) whole core transport code. The thermal-hydraulics and fuel temperature models are provided by the COBRA-TF (CTF) subchannel code. As part of the CASL development program, the VERA-CS (MPACT/CTF) code system was applied to model and simulate reactor core response with respect to departure from nucleate boiling ratio (DNBR) at the limiting time step of a postulated pressurized water reactor (PWR) main steamline break (MSLB) event initiated at the hot zero power (HZP), either with offsite power available and the reactor coolant pumps in operation (high-flow case) or without offsite power where the reactor core is cooled through natural circulation (low-flow case). The VERA-CS simulation was based on core boundary conditions from the RETRAN-02 system transient calculations and STAR-CCM+ computational fluid dynamics (CFD) core inlet distribution calculations. The evaluation indicated that the VERA-CS code system is capable of modeling and simulating quasi-steady state reactor core response under the steamline break (SLB) accident condition, the results are insensitive to uncertainties in the inlet flow distributions from the CFD simulations, and the high-flow case is more DNB limiting than the low-flow case.
CTF↗
Topology Optimization of Cellular Structure.
This paper presents an end-to-end design process for compliance minimization based topological optimization of cellular structures through to the realization of a final printed product. Homogenization is used to derive properties representative of these structures through direct numerical simulation of unit cell models of the underlying periodic structure. The resulting homogenized properties are then used assuming uniform distribution of the cellular structure to compute the final macro-scale structure. A new method is then presented for generating an STL representation of the final optimized part that is suitable for printing on typical industrial machines. Quite fine cellular structures are shown to be possible using this method as compared to other approaches that use nurb based CAD representations of the geometry. Finally, results are presented that illustrate the fine-scale stresses developed in the final macro-scale optimized part and suggestions are made as to incorporate these features into the overall optimization process.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Graded Infill Structure of Wind Turbine Blade Accounting for Internal Stress in Big Area Additive Manufacturing
In additively manufactured (AM) components, infill structure significantly affects the mechanical performance of the final printed part. However, mechanical stress induced by operation loads has been so far neglected for infill patterning. Most slicers currently available in the market provide infill patterns that are uniform in shape and size regardless of the operational loading. We develop a design approach for infill patterns that accounts for the induced stress. This approach differs from topology optimization as it focuses on the porous infill, which allows the external shape of the printed part to remain intact. The proposed approach uses a computational stress analysis to control the distribution of the local density of the infill pattern. We have applied the approach to a wind turbine blade core with infill densities optimized based on the structural loads. The blade core is fabricated in our big area additive manufacturing (BAAM) system. To ensure less warpage and better inter-layer bonding, fast layer deposition is critical in BAAM system. We have optimized the tool path sequences to minimize the deposition time via the solution to the Chinese Postman Problem (CPP). For the application of wind turbine infill, the deposition from the CPP method is twice faster than the deposition from conventional slicing.
Kim, Pum↗
Kraken: A framework for declarative automation of distributed systems
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Computer Science↗
Machine Learning Methods for Connection RTT and Loss Rate Estimation Using MPI Measurements Under Random Losses
Scientific computations are expected to be increasingly distributed across wide-area networks, and Message Passing Interface (MPI) has been shown to scale to support their communications over long distances. Application-level measurements of MPI operations reflect the connection Round-Trip Time (RTT) and loss rate, and machine learningmethods have been previously developed to estimate them under deterministic periodic losses. In this paper, we consider more complex, random losses with uniform, Poisson and Gaussian distributions. We study five disparate machine leaning methods, with linear and non-linear, and smooth and non-smooth properties, to estimate RTT and loss rate over 10 Gbps connections with 0–366 ms RTT. The diversity and complexity of these estimators combined with the randomness of losses and TCP’s non-linear response together rule out the selection of a single best among them; instead, we fuse them to retain their design diversity. Overall, the results show that accurate estimates can be generated at low loss ratesbut become inaccurate at loss rates 10% and higher, thereby illustrating both their strengths and limitations.
Rao, Nageswara S.↗
Probabilistic Load Margin Assessment using Vine Copula and Gaussian Process Emulation
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Engineering - Power transmission and distribution,↗