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Reliability of sergeant missile assemblies - application of test-to-failure program
The design features of the SUMC-2B computer, also called the IBM-HTC are described. It is general purpose digital computer implemented with flexible hardware elements and microprograming to enable low cost customizing to a wide range of applications. It executes the S/360 standard instruction set to maintain problem state compability. Memory technology, extended instruction sets, and I/O channel variations are among the available options.
When design factors are considered as random variables and the failure condition cannot be expressed by a closed form algebraic inequality, computations of risk (or probability of failure) might become extremely difficult or very inefficient. This study suggests using a simple, and easily constructed, second degree polynomial to approximate the complicated limit state in the neighborhood of the design point; a computer analysis relates the design variables at selected points. Then a fast probability integration technique (i.e., the Rackwitz-Fiessler algorithm) can be used to estimate risk. The capability of the proposed method is demonstrated in an example of a low cycle fatigue problem for which a computer analysis is required to perform local strain analysis to relate the design variables. A comparison of the performance of this method is made with a far more costly Monte Carlo solution. Agreement of the proposed method with Monte Carlo is considered to be good.
In order to design Laminar Flow Control (LFC) configurations, reliable methods are needed for boundary-layer transition predictions. Among the available methods, there are correlations based upon R sub e, shape factors, Goertler number and crossflow Reynolds number. The most advanced transition prediction method is based upon linear stability theory in the form of the e sup N method which has proven to be successful in predicting transition in two- and three-dimensional boundary layers. When transition occurs in a low disturbance environment, the e sup N method provides a viable design tool for transition prediction and LFC in both 2-D and 3-D subsonic/supersonic flows. This is true for transition dominated by either TS, crossflow, or Goertler instability. If Goertler/TS or crossflow/TS interaction is present, the e sup N will fail to predict transition. However, there is no evidence of such interaction at low amplitudes of Goertler and crossflow vortices.
A method for calculating a component's design survivability by incorporating finite element analysis and probabilistic material properties was developed. The method evaluates design parameters through direct comparisons of component survivability expressed in terms of Weibull parameters. The analysis was applied to a rotating disk with mounting bolt holes. The highest probability of failure occurred at, or near, the maximum shear stress region of the bolt holes. Distribution of failure as a function of Weibull slope affects the probability of survival. Where Weibull parameters are unknown for a rotating disk, it may be permissible to assume Weibull parameters, as well as the stress-life exponent, in order to determine the disk speed where the probability of survival is highest.
A modular, multi-reactor power system and vehicle configuration for piloted nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) missions to Mars is presented. Such a design could provide enhanced system and mission reliability, allowing a comfortable safety margin for early manned flights, and would allow a range of piloted and cargo missions to be performed with a single power system design. Early use of common power modules for cargo missions would also provide progressive flight experience and validation of standardized systems for use in later piloted applications. System and mission analysis are presented to compare single and multi-reactor configurations for piloted Mars missions. A conceptual design for the Hydra modular multi-reactor NEP vehicle is presented.
A significant effort is being made to develop testing and design methodologies that will account for the lack of ductility and the strength anisotropy exhibited by brittle single crystals such as NiAl. The present approach is to modify existing test methods and brittle design methodologies, such as those applied to ceramics and glasses, and to experimentally verify the results. This paper focuses on the basic materials properties and strength behavior of a NiAl single crystal alloy and the development of a reliability model for the design of components subjected to multiaxial stresses.
The rapid adoption of artificial intelligence methods in healthcare is coupled with the critical need for techniques to rigorously introspect models and thereby ensure that they behave reliably. This has led to the design of explainable AI techniques that uncover the relationships between discernible data signatures and model predictions. In this context, counterfactual explanations that synthesize small, interpretable changes to a given query while producing desired changes in model predictions have become popular. This under-constrained, inverse problem is vulnerable to introducing irrelevant feature manipulations, particularly when the model’s predictions are not well-calibrated. Hence, in this paper, we propose the TraCE (training calibration-based explainers) technique, which utilizes a novel uncertainty-based interval calibration strategy for reliably synthesizing counterfactuals. Given the wide-spread adoption of machine-learned solutions in radiology, our study focuses on deep models used for identifying anomalies in chest X-ray images. Using rigorous empirical studies, we demonstrate the superiority of TraCE explanations over several state-of-the-art baseline approaches, in terms of several widely adopted evaluation metrics. Our findings show that TraCE can be used to obtain a holistic understanding of deep models by enabling progressive exploration of decision boundaries, to detect shortcuts, and to infer relationships between patient attributes and disease severity.
The topics considered are related to linear control system design, adaptive control, failure detection, control under failure, system reliability, and large-scale systems and decentralized control. It is pointed out that the design of a linear feedback control system which regulates a process about a desirable set point or steady-state condition in the presence of disturbances is a very important problem. The linearized dynamics of the process are used for design purposes. The typical linear-quadratic design involving the solution of the optimal control problem of a linear time-invariant system with respect to a quadratic performance criterion is considered along with gain reduction theorems and the multivariable phase margin theorem. The stumbling block in many adaptive design methodologies is associated with the amount of real time computation which is necessary. Attention is also given to the desperate need to develop good theories for large-scale systems, the beginning of a microprocessor revolution, the translation of the Wiener-Hopf theory into the time domain, and advances made in dynamic team theory, dynamic stochastic games, and finite memory stochastic control.
Advanced microfabrication technologies offer the prospect of reducing the weight and size of spacecraft through the use of lighter and stronger materials in conjunction with new mechanical/structural design concepts and design optimization methods. At the same time, electronic components have been scaled down while increasing functional utility. A two-fold benefit is derived for space applications through the use of less expensive components and the lower launch costs associated with lighter components. GE-CRD is actively pursuing research in these key technologies for a wide range of applications including satellites. These key technologies will be reviewed and an update on GE progress will be given. The need to reduce weight and lower cost, while maintaining product quality and reliability are primary drivers in the design of satellites, in general, and microsatellites in particular. For the structural subsystem, these requirements pose a complex design problem unless new mechanical design concepts and computer-aided design optimization methods are employed. Several new concepts, such as battery packs doubling as panel reinforcements and fuel tanks as integral structural members, need to utilized. In addition, new viscoelastic material damping concepts for spacecraft components provide for lighter weight/lower cost designs, while satisfying the structural dynamics requirements. High density interconnect (HDI) technology permits the use of bare IC's on a ceramic substrate with 90 percent active area utilization. A copper/polyimide multilayer structure is the backbone of the technology, which has demonstrated a size/weight reduction of greater than 10x compared to printed circuit board with performance up to the GHz level. HDI modules have exceptional mechanical robustness as evidenced by survival of 180 kg rapid acceleration tests. Microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) are redefining sensors and actuators by miniaturization through micromachining techniques. Sharing many fabrication steps with HDI, we have developed a new technique for surface micromachining of copper/polyimide structures using computer-aided laser patterning.
Emerging technology is enabling the design community to consistently expand the amount of functionality that can be implemented within Integrated Circuits (ICs). As the number of gates placed within an FPGA increases, the complexity of the design can grow exponentially. Consequently, the ability to create reliable circuits has become an incredibly difficult task. In order to ease the complexity of design completion, the commercial design community has developed a very rigid (but effective) design methodology based on synchronous circuit techniques. In order to create faster, smaller and lower power circuits, transistor geometries and core voltages have decreased. In environments that contain ionizing energy, such a combination will increase the probability of Single Event Upsets (SEUs) and will consequently affect the state space of a circuit. In order to combat the effects of radiation, the aerospace community has developed several "Hardened by Design" (fault tolerant) design schemes. This paper will address design mitigation schemes targeted for SRAM Based FPGA CMOS devices. Because some mitigation schemes may be over zealous (too much power, area, complexity, etc.. . .), the designer should be conscious that system requirements can ease the amount of mitigation necessary for acceptable operation. Therefore, various degrees of Fault Tolerance will be demonstrated along with an analysis of its effectiveness.
The goal of this LCP is to develop an ultra-high resolution gamma detector based on magnetic microcalorimeters (MMCs) for accurate non-destructive analysis (NDA) of nuclear materials. For highest energy resolution, we will introduce erbium-doped silver (Ag:Er) as a novel sensor material to replace current Au:Er sensors. The detector sensitivity will be increased by developing arrays of 32 Ag:Er pixels read out by 16 SQUID preamplifiers. MMC detectors require operating temperatures of ~15 mK and thus the use of a dilution refrigerator, and the desire for user-friendly operation without cryogenic liquids requires that this refrigerator use pulse-tube pre-cooling to ~4 K. For long-term reliability, we intend to re-design the heat switch that is needed to apply the magnetizing current to the Ag:Er sensor and that used to fail in earlier designs after months of operation. A cryogenic Compton veto will be installed to reduce the spectral background of the MMC, especially at low energies where ultra-high energy resolution is most important. The goals for FY16 were 1) to purchase a liquid-cryogen-free dilution refrigerator and adapt it for MMC operation, and 2) to fabricate Ag:Er-based MMC γ-detectors with improved performance and optimize their response. This report discusses the design of the instruments, and progress in MMC detector fabrication. Details of the MMC fabrication have been discussed in an April 2016 report to DOE.
Reliability is one of many important performance parameters for aerospace systems and launch vehicles. FMEA/CIL is a powerful design-analysis and risk communication tool for improving reliability. FMEA/CIL 201 covers advanced considerations for FMEA/CIL planning and implementation.
The development of a main memory unit (MMU) for the space ultrareliable module computer (SUMC) model HTC is discussed. The design, fabrication, and test of basic memory modules (BMM) which were to be used in the design and construction of the MMU are described. The BMM was designed from state-of-the-art technologies which included large scale integration devices mounted and interconnected on a substrate to form a functional module to be utilized in the MMU development. A SUMC memory system design study is discussed which addressed itself to the BMM design and analysis to be conducted to determine the most efficient organization of the BMM in order to establish such modularity features as: word length expandability without redesign, high reliability, and fault tolerance. One MMU was designed, fabricated, tested, and delivered which will be electrical and mechanically compatible with the hybrid technology computer (HTC) model of the SUMC family of computers. The MMU will contain a storage capacity of 8196 36 bit words which includes a parity bit for each 8 bit byte of data.
This open-source tool implements Circular Economy metrics for photovoltaic (PV) materials. It can be used to quantify and assign a value framework to efforts on re-design, reduction, replacement, reuse, recycling, and lifetime and reliability increases in the PV value chain. The PV_ICE is leveraging published data from different sources on PV manufacturing and predicted technological changes. Input data is being compiled here This tool will help implement circularity metrics, quantify and assign a value framework to efforts on re-design, reduction, replacement, reusage, recycling, and lifetime and reliability increases on PV.
In support of the Space Shuttle Orbiter post-flight inspection, structure temperatures are recorded at selected positions on the windward, leeward, starboard and port surfaces. Statistical analysis of this flight data and a non-dimensional load interference (NDLI) method are used to estimate the thermal reliability at positions were reusable surface insulation (RSI) is installed. In this analysis, structure temperatures that exceed the design limit define the critical failure mode. At thirty-three positions the RSI thermal reliability is greater than 0.999999 for the missions studied. This is not the overall system level reliability of the thermal protection system installed on an Orbiter. The results from two Orbiters, OV-102 and OV-105, are in good agreement. The original RSI designs on the OV-102 Orbital Maneuvering System pods, which had low reliability, were significantly improved on OV-105. The NDLI method was also used to estimate thermal reliability from an assessment of TPS uncertainties that was completed shortly before the first Orbiter flight. Results fiom the flight data analysis and the pre-flight assessment agree at several positions near each other. The NDLI method is also effective for optimizing RSI designs to provide uniform thermal reliability on the acreage surface of reusable launch vehicles.
The Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, Security-Regolith Explorer (Osiris-REx) spacecraft is scheduled to launch in September, 2016 to embark on an asteroid sample return mission. It is expected to rendezvous with the asteroid, Bennu, navigate to the surface, collect a sample (July 20), and return the sample to Earth (September 23). The original mission design called for using one of two Flash Lidar units to provide autonomous navigation to the surface. Following Preliminary design and initial development of the Lidars, reliability issues with the hardware and test program prompted the project to begin development of an alternative navigation technique to be used as a backup to the Lidar. At the critical design review, Natural Feature Tracking (NFT) was added to the mission. NFT is an onboard optical navigation system that compares observed images to a set of asteroid terrain models which are rendered in real-time from a catalog stored in memory on the flight computer. Onboard knowledge of the spacecraft state is then updated by a Kalman filter using the measured residuals between the rendered reference images and the actual observed images. The asteroid terrain models used by NFT are built from a shape model generated from observations collected during earlier phases of the mission and include both terrain shape and albedo information about the asteroid surface. As a result, the success of NFT is highly dependent on selecting a set of topographic features that can be both identified during descent as well as reliably rendered using the shape model data available. During development, the OSIRIS-REx team faced significant challenges in developing a process conducive to robust operation. This was especially true for terrain models to be used as the spacecraft gets close to the asteroid and higher fidelity models are required for reliable image correlation. This paper will present some of the challenges and lessons learned from the development of the NFT system which includes not just the flight hardware and software but the development of the terrain models used to generate the onboard rendered images.
Most existing coal-fired power plants were designed for sustained operation at full load to maximize efficiency, reliability, and revenue, as well as to operate air pollution control devices at design conditions. Depending on plant type and design, these plants can adjust output within a fixed range in response to plant operating or market conditions. The need for flexibility driven by increased penetration of variable and non-dispatchable power generation, such as wind and solar, is shifting the traditional mission profile of thermoelectric power plants in three ways: more frequent shutdowns when market or grid conditions warrant, more aggressive load ramp rates (rate of output change), and a lower minimum sustainable load, which provides a wider operating range and helps avoid costly plant shutdowns. Recent studies have shown that the flexibility of a coal-fired power plant can be improved by energy storage. The objective of this work was to analyze a set of energy storage options and determine their impact on the flexibility and economics of a representative coal-fired power plant. The effect of three energy storage systems integrated with a coal power plant on plant flexibility and economics was investigated. The results obtained in this project show that energy storage systems integrated with a thermal power plant improve plant flexibility and participation in the energy and ancillary services markets, which improves plant financial performance.