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DOE OSTI2016

Plutonium Critical Mass Curve Comparison to Mass at Upper Subcritical Limit (USL) Using Whisper

Whisper is computational software designed to assist the nuclear criticality safety analyst with validation studies with the MCNP ® Monte Carlo radiation transport package. Standard approaches to validation rely on the selection of benchmarks based upon expert judgment. Whisper uses sensitivity/uncertainty (S/U) methods to select relevant benchmarks to a particular application or set of applications being analyzed. Using these benchmarks, Whisper computes a calculational margin. Whisper attempts to quantify the margin of subcriticality (MOS) from errors in software and uncertainties in nuclear data. The combination of the Whisper-derived calculational margin and MOS comprise the baseline upper subcritical limit (USL), to which an additional margin may be applied by the nuclear criticality safety analyst as appropriate to ensure subcriticality. A series of critical mass curves for plutonium, similar to those found in Figure 31 of LA-10860-MS, have been generated using MCNP6.1.1 and the iterative parameter study software, WORM_Solver. The baseline USL for each of the data points of the curves was then computed using Whisper 1.1. The USL was then used to determine the equivalent mass for plutonium metal-water system. ANSI/ANS-8.1 states that it is acceptable to use handbook data, such as the data directly from the LA-10860-MS, as it is already considered validated (Section 4.3 4) “Use of subcritical limit data provided in ANSI/ANS standards or accepted reference publications does not require further validation.”). This paper attempts to take a novel approach to visualize traditional critical mass curves and allows comparison with the amount of mass for which the k eff is equal to the USL (calculational margin + margin of subcriticality). However, the intent is to plot the critical mass data along with USL, not to suggest that already accepted handbook data should have new and more rigorous requirements for validation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Closing the Loop on Automotive Carbon Fiber Prepreg Manufacturing Scrap

The project demonstrated how to “close the loop” on carbon fiber by integrating industrial carbon fiber scrap into new functional components in an automotive lightweighting application. The project serves as a validation of discontinuous recycled carbon fiber in a commercial context, while generating comprehensive material data throughout the production chain. To this end, the project exhibited increasing complexity as material evaluation progressed from benchtop to commercial scale through full-scale part production, with key material properties thoroughly characterized throughout the process. Of particular focus was the form of the fiber that was fed into compounding, as recycled fiber has historically been problematic to feed at commercial-scale. Carbon fiber is energy-intensive to manufacture, so reuse of existing fiber material can reduce costs and increase sustainability. Additionally, by integrating recovered short fiber into a thermoplastic, regrind processes can be used to provide feedstock for later generations of product. While regrind plastics are not “infinitely recyclable”, reusing the manufacturing scrap over several generations of products can greatly increase material sustainability and lower the fractional embodied energy of each successive product. As such, this project supports the IACMI technical goals of (1) 25% lower carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP) cost, (2) 50% reduction in CFRP embodied energy, and (3) 80% composite recyclability into useful products. The initial stage of the project involved down selecting surface treatment (sizing) chemistries. Sizing evaluations were performed on Vartega’s chemically recycled intermediate modulus fiber along with standard modulus dry scrap which was oversized with sizing provided by Michelman. More dramatic improvements from sizing were found on the standard rather than the intermediate modulus fibers. The strength of the chemically recycled individual fibers were evaluated by Michelman and ORNL through single fiber testing and found to be comparable to similarly evaluated virgin fibers. UDRI’s mechanical testing on injection molded test specimens identified similar mechanical properties and fiber distribution relative to benchmark specimens. Additional surface chemistry tests and visualizations were performed by the Colorado School of Mines to confirm close conformance between the benchmark and recycled-fiber specimens. As the mechanical test results exceeded the 80% threshold established as the go/no-go(GNG), the project scale was increased to use commercial-scale equipment that would both better characterize the manufacturing utility of the target product format and allow qualitative assessment of a complex commercial part. An upscaled compounding evaluation was performed with a 27 mm twin-screw compounding extruding using oversized standard modulus fibers that were formatted to improve bulk solids transfer. The project team anticipated that milestone mechanical benchmarks could be achieved given the favorable performance of the sized standard modulus material identified in the initial micro-compounding trials. While the mechanical performance did meet the milestone target for that phase of the project, mechanical properties for this standard modulus-based compound were still less than those of the Ford specification. To compare the performance, the project team oversized intermediate modulus dry fibers and compounded them with the project resin at BASF using a 40 mm compounder. Test specimen mechanical performance exceeded the targets laid out in both the project milestone and the Ford specification. A series of prototype parts were successfully molded, albeit with instances of short shot components due to the high thermal conductivity of the carbon fiber compared to glass fiber for which the prototype tool was designed for. The project demonstrated that recycled carbon fiber is a viable option in fiber reinforced compound, providing greatly increased strength and modulus for applications that require them. The “agglomerated” format that facilitated effective bulk solids transfer of recovered fiber showed promise for industrial application.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2016

A source-synchronous filter for uncorrelated receiver traces from a swept-frequency seismic source

We have developed a novel algorithm to reduce noise in signals obtained from swept-frequency sources by removing out-of-band external noise sources and distortion caused from unwanted harmonics. The algorithm is designed to condition nonstationary signals for which traditional frequency-domain methods for removing noise have been less effective. The source synchronous filter (SSF) is a time-varying narrow band filter, which is synchronized with the frequency of the source signal at all times. Because the bandwidth of the filter needs to account for the source-to-receiver propagation delay and the sweep rate, SSF works best with slow sweep rates and moveout-adjusted waveforms to compensate for source-receiver delays. The SSF algorithm was applied to data collected during a field test at the University of California Santa Barbara’s Garner Valley downhole array site in Southern California. At the site, a 45 kN shaker was mounted on top of a one-story structure and swept from 0 to 10 Hz and back over 60 s (producing useful seismic waves greater than 1.6 Hz). The seismic data were captured with small accelerometer and geophone arrays and with a distributed acoustic sensing array, which is a fiber-optic-based technique for the monitoring of elastic waves. The result of the application of SSF on the field data is a set of undistorted and uncorrelated traces that can be used in different applications, such as measuring phase velocities of surface waves or applying convolution operations with the encoder source function to obtain traveltimes. Lastly, the results from the SSF were used with a visual phase alignment tool to facilitate developing dispersion curves and as a prefilter to improve the interpretation of the data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Pre-Transient Characterization of Historic EBR-II Pins for Transient Testing

Current interest in sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR) designs, such as TerraPower’s Natrium Reactor, has highlighted the need for advanced reactor fuel technology development. Modern U-Zr and U- Pu-Zr pin designs are primary candidates to fuel SFRs and boast high fuel utilization capacity, increased fuel-cladding compatibility, and improved safety through inherent feedback mechanisms. Despite over 60 years of metallic fuel irradiation, uncertainties exist in the performance of the fuel system, particularly under transient overpower (TOP) and loss of flow (LOF) scenarios. Throughout historical testing within the Experimental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) and the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF), fuel behavior has demonstrated benign response to transient reactor conditions; however, accurate predictions of failure thresholds to inform operational limitations rely heavily on fuel composition, burnup, and irradiation history. In expanding TOP and LOF testing, the Transient Heat sink Overpower Response (THOR) Capsule will be used to test modern fuel technologies in a static sodium environment in the Transient Reactor Test (TREAT) Facility. The THOR capsule is highly instrumented and will provide time-dependent thermal behavior of SFR fuel pins subjected to accident conditions within TREAT. The THOR-Metallic (THOR- M) campaign aims to validate and expand historical TOP and LOF testing on high burnup U-Zr and U-Pu- Zr fuel alloys previously irradiated in EBR-II by running the rods to failure. This contribution focuses primarily on the pre-transient engineering-scale destructive and non- destructive characterization that has been conducted on both the test and sibling pins used for the TOP and LOF tests. All pins underwent visual examination, neutron radiography, element contact profilometry, and precise gamma scan. The sibling pins used for each test were further analyzed using gas assay, sampling, and recharge analysis (GASR), and optical microscopy. The results from each technique confirmed that the fuel pins were intact and devoid of any atypical developments when compared to historical data. Additionally, the analyzed measurements establish a baseline for comparison to post-transient analysis. Key fuel behaviors quanitifed include axial elongation of the fuel column, diametral strain of the pin, patterns in fluff structure geometry, changes in axial isotope distribution, evolution of constituent redistribution, porosity, and fission gas release. The pre-transient measurements and changes attributed to transient behavior from post-transient measurement will be compared to historical data to capture the behavioral dependence on composition, burnup, and irradiation history. Results from this work advance the initiatives of the THOR-M campaign, which aid in informing fuel performance models and establishing safety criteria for SFR operational limits. The novel combination of test environment, in-situ instrumentation, and comprehensive suite of characterization methods provides greater understanding of transient fuel behavior. Overall, information on the time and condition of pin failure for high burnup U-Pu-Zr will greatly expand the limited existing TOP and LOF test data.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Pre-Transient Characterization of Historic EBR-II Pins for Transient Testing

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2014

PhytoPET, PhytoBeta and PhytoSPECT: Radioisotope Imaging Systems Being Developed for Plant Biology Research

The Radiation Detector and Imaging Group at Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (Jefferson Lab) is developing radioisotope imaging systems designed and constructed to facilitate plant biology studies at the Duke University Phytotron. The imaging systems utilize nuclear medicine imaging methodologies used in positron emission tomography (PET) and single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) but designed specifically for plant biology. The range of plant shapes and the environmental conditions in plant growth chambers pose a technological challenge. Description: Jefferson Lab is collaborating with the Duke University Phytotron and the Triangle Universities Nuclear Laboratory (TUNL) in the construction and operation of PhytoPET and PhytoBeta (for direct beta particle detection) for plant and/or microbe imaging. The TUNL tandem Van de Graaff accelerator (maximum terminal voltage of 10 MV) has been used to generate 11C and 13N for plant biology research. The PhytoPET and PhytoBeta have been used with 11C as a 11CO2 tracer for plant ecophysiology imaging with corn, poplar, oak and barley utilizing technologies developed for nuclear physics research and nuclear medicine. The imaging detectors are based on position sensitive photomultiplier tubes coupled to scintillators. Additionally, the collaboration is investigating a methodology using single photon emitting radioisotope tracers for imaging the distribution of molecular compounds of interest in the rhizosphere, the interface between root and soil, without disturbing the root or soil habitat. Plans are underway to develop a single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) system (PhytoSPECT) to image the bio-distribution of fungi in association with a host plant's roots. In addition to a description of the technology an overview will be given of the application of PhytoPET, PhytBeta and PhytoSPECT to plant biology research at Duke University. Conclusions: We have developed and used radioisotope imaging technologies based on PET and SPECT to visualize plant function in changing environments. There are many opportunities to provide radioisotope based imaging tools for plant ecophysiology imaging. Keywords: radioisotope detection, plant biology, carbon-11, accelerator produced isotopes

Weisenberger, Andrew↗

DOE OSTI2011

Data Intensive Architecture for Scalable Cyber Analytics

Cyber analysts are tasked with the identification and mitigation of network exploits and threats. These compromises are difficult to identify due to the characteristics of cyber communication, the volume of traffic, and the duration of possible attack. In this paper, we describe a prototype implementation designed to provide cyber analysts an environment where they can interactively explore a month’s worth of cyber security data. This prototype utilized On-Line Analytical Processing (OLAP) techniques to present a data cube to the analysts. The cube provides a summary of the data, allowing trends to be easily identified as well as the ability to easily pull up the original records comprising an event of interest. The cube was built using SQL Server Analysis Services (SSAS), with the interface to the cube provided by Tableau. This software infrastructure was supported by a novel hardware architecture comprising a Netezza TwinFin® for the underlying data warehouse and a cube server with a FusionIO drive hosting the data cube. We evaluated this environment on a month’s worth of artificial, but realistic, data using multiple queries provided by our cyber analysts. As our results indicate, OLAP technology has progressed to the point where it is in a unique position to provide novel insights to cyber analysts, as long as it is supported by an appropriate data intensive architecture.

Olsen, Bryan K.↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-J-17: Patient Localization Using MRI-Guided Soft Tissue for Head-And-Neck Radiotherapy: Indication for Margin Reduction and Its Feasibility

Purpose: On-board MRI provides superior soft-tissue contrast, allowing patient alignment using tumor or nearby critical structures. This study aims to study H&N MRI-guided IGRT to analyze inter-fraction patient setup variations using soft-tissue targets and design appropriate CTV-to-PTV margin and clinical implication. Methods: 282 MR images for 10 H&N IMRT patients treated on a ViewRay system were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were immobilized using a thermoplastic mask on a customized headrest fitted in a radiofrequency coil and positioned to soft-tissue targets. The inter-fraction patient displacements were recorded to compute the PTV margins using the recipe: 2.5∑+0.7σ. New IMRT plans optimized on the revised PTVs were generated to evaluate the delivered dose distributions. An in-house dose deformation registration tool was used to assess the resulting dosimetric consequences when margin adaption is performed based on weekly MR images. The cumulative doses were compared to the reduced margin plans for targets and critical structures. Results: The inter-fraction displacements (and standard deviations), ∑ and σ were tabulated for MRI and compared to kVCBCT. The computed CTV-to-PTV margin was 3.5mm for soft-tissue based registration. There were minimal differences between the planned and delivered doses when comparing clinical and the PTV reduced margin plans: the paired t-tests yielded p=0.38 and 0.66 between the planned and delivered doses for the adapted margin plans for the maximum cord and mean parotid dose, respectively. Target V95 received comparable doses as planned for the reduced margin plans. Conclusion: The 0.35T MRI offers acceptable soft-tissue contrast and good spatial resolution for patient alignment and target visualization. Better tumor conspicuity from MRI allows soft-tissue based alignments with potentially improved accuracy, suggesting a benefit of margin reduction for H&N radiotherapy. The reduced margin plans (i.e., 2 mm) resulted in improved normal structure sparing and accurate dose delivery to achieve intended treatment goal under MR guidance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

PipeSight: A High-Performance Computing Platform for Pipeline Integrity Management

The Phase I feasibility study completed as part of this project has led to a number of innovative technologies being developed and has laid the foundation for a successful Phase II effort to commercialize a platform for managing the integrity of pipelines for the damage mechanisms of the new, hybrid-energy based economy. To ground the development efforts and direction of the project, an extensive market research and customer discovery effort was undertaken early in Phase I. Through this effort, a number of pipeline owners and operators were interviewed, and the following key findings were discovered about the pipeline industry: • Small pipeline operators do not have the central engineering groups necessary to perform their own independent analysis of inspection data, but instead rely on summarized tally sheets provided to them by inspection service providers. • The time it takes to go from an inspection to a completed engineering assessment, even for small segments of pipeline, can take anywhere from 30-120 days. During this delay, critical threats can (and have been known to) cause failures. • Uncertainty is often not accounted for in the assessment of pipeline integrity. The tally sheets provided by third-party service providers are almost always deterministic in nature, identifying threats that present a concern only to the current (not the future) integrity of the pipeline. • It is uncommon to apply the latest technologies to perform advanced assessments of damaged pipelines. There is a desire to use more advanced analysis capabilities to assess threats. Many pipeline operators indicated that they would often excavate a pipeline to perform an inspection and find that the damage was not as bad as they anticipated, thus using limited resources unnecessarily. Companies are not consistent in their use of inspection data to determine corrosion rates, and those that do only calculate deterministic corrosion rates. • The industry has prominently relied on time-based inspections but has recently started to transition to risk-based inspections. However, there appears to be no uniform guidance on how to do so while properly accounting for all sources of uncertainty. • Companies are not storing inspection data in a manner that allows for the ready determination of temporal trends. • Predictive maintenance principles and practices are beginning to be used by early adopters • Some pipelines are being re-purposed to transport different process fluids than they were designed for, e.g., H 2 and CO 2 rich process streams to serve the new hybrid-energy based economy, which are presenting new integrity concerns for the existing pipeline network that crisscrosses the United States. As a result of these discoveries, we were able to target the development efforts in Phase I to best serve the needs of the industry. In Phase I, we developed a way to correlate multiple large-scale scans of the pipeline to determine a probabilistic corrosion rate that accounts for all sources of error and uncertainty in the inspection process. This probabilistic corrosion rate can be used to predict the future thickness distribution of the pipe wall. We demonstrate how this analysis may be performed in an analytical fashion and has been implemented in such a manner that it can be readily distributed using GPU computing through integration of the Kokkos programming model. We also make a very novel extension of the analytical corrosion rate model to Bayesian Networks (an explainable AI technique) that can account for non-parametric distributions of corrosion rates. With the predictions made above for the probabilistic corrosion rate and corresponding future distribution of the pipe wall thickness, we can assess the integrity of the pipeline through the use of a probabilistic engineering assessment. We developed a novel screening data analysis approach that can rapidly identify ‘hotspots’ (local thin areas) where the integrity of the pipeline is a concern. Once more, we implemented this screening approach in C++ to leverage GPU computing via the Kokkos programming model. After the critical hotspots are identified, we developed a program that can automatically generate an advanced finite element model of the damaged regions. Since the number of damaged regions that require advanced analysis can number in the thousands, we integrated an open-source container-native workflow engine for orchestrating parallel jobs on the cloud. Initially, these advanced numerical models were only designed to account for loading due to internal pressure. However, in a slight pivot from the initial Phase I proposal, we developed a complete pipe stress analysis program (called Simflex) which can simulate the complete pipeline and its response to thermal expansion, pressure, thermal bowing, weight, wind, earthquake, support displacement, support friction and external forces. This pipe stress analysis program was written generically, to handle any piping system, but contains the features needed to model long pipelines (i.e., it incorporates a model for soil mechanics and can account for the nonlinear boundary conditions necessary to simulate long underground pipelines). This pipe stress analysis program can simulate any segment of the pipeline (simple or complex) under any set of conditions and loads, to determine the supplemental loads (axial forces and bending moments) at the location of damage. This enables the most accurate state of stress to be accounted for in the pipeline, which can prove critical when evaluating the integrity of a damaged region. In the process of developing the technologies to perform the integrity assessment of the pipeline, we also extended one of the industry standard approaches for performing the assessment of local thin areas that extend more in the circumferential direction than the longitudinal direction of the pipeline. This approach was presented to the API 579-1/AS ME FFS-1 steering committee in November 2021 for consideration in the next edition of the industry standard for Fitness-For-Service (expected to be released in 2023). To help pipeline operators make decisions with the results on any integrity assessment, we developed a new approach to the life-cycle management of pipelines which uses a Bayesian Decision Network. The network is designed to help pipeline operators plan and prioritize inspection activities and ultimately make smarter, more cost-effective decisions. The Bayesian approach accounts for all sources of uncertainty and carries them through to the final optimal decisions, providing a probabilistic framework for optimizing inspection intervals. The proof-of-concept networks developed in the feasibility study are complete, verified, and are focused on a subset of the pipeline. To expand this novel approach to the scale necessary for an entire network of pipelines in Phase II, we will leverage the DOE-funded Bengi solver for industrial-scale decision making with Bayesian Networks [22]. Once implemented, we will be able to provide the pipeline industry with a much-needed tool for optimal inspection planning using truly explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). To handle all of these advanced capabilities into a cloud-based platform, the architecture of the Equity Engineering Cloud (EEC) was extended to include Argo Workflows, a framework capable of distributing and managing a massive number of jobs that consume their own resources, such that thousands of serial finite element simulations can be run in parallel. As part of this substantial undertaking, we also integrated Argo Continuous Delivery (CD) into the EEC, to aid with the rapid prototyping and iterations that will be imperative to the success of the PipeSight platform’s Agile development process in Phase II. As part of the pipe stress analysis program, we also developed a custom visualizer that leverages the DOE-funded VTK visualization library. We added custom contouring capabilities and a means for interacting visually with both the inputs and outputs of the pipe stress analysis program. We also developed routines for automating the post-processing of the finite element simulations to determine if any failure criteria are met and to visualize the deformations, stresses and strains in ParaView using the exodus II file format (a subset of netCDF).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2012

Application of Spatial Data Modeling and Geographical Information Systems (GIS) for Identification of Potential Siting Options for Various Electrical Generation Sources

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) initiated an internal National Electric Generation Siting Study, which is an ongoing multiphase study addressing several key questions related to our national electrical energy supply. This effort has led to the development of a tool, OR-SAGE (Oak Ridge Siting Analysis for power Generation Expansion), to support siting evaluations. The objective in developing OR-SAGE was to use industry-accepted approaches and/or develop appropriate criteria for screening sites and employ an array of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) data sources at ORNL to identify candidate areas for a power generation technology application. The initial phase of the study examined nuclear power generation. These early nuclear phase results were shared with staff from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), which formed the genesis and support for an expansion of the work to several other power generation forms, including advanced coal with carbon capture and storage (CCS), solar, and compressed air energy storage (CAES). Wind generation was not included in this scope of work for EPRI. The OR-SAGE tool is essentially a dynamic visualization database. The results shown in this report represent a single static set of results using a specific set of input parameters. In this case, the GIS input parameters were optimized to support an economic study conducted by EPRI. A single set of individual results should not be construed as an ultimate energy solution, since US energy policy is very complex. However, the strength of the OR-SAGE tool is that numerous alternative scenarios can be quickly generated to provide additional insight into electrical generation or other GIS-based applications. The screening process divides the contiguous United States into 100 x 100 m (1-hectare) squares (cells), applying successive power generation-appropriate site selection and evaluation criteria (SSEC) to each cell. There are just under 700 million cells representing the contiguous United States. If a cell meets the requirements of each criterion, the cell is deemed a candidate area for siting a specific power generation form relative to a reference plant for that power type. Some SSEC parameters preclude siting a power plant because of an environmental, regulatory, or land-use constraint. Other SSEC assist in identifying less favorable areas, such as proximity to hazardous operations. All of the selected SSEC tend to recommend against sites. The focus of the ORNL electrical generation source siting study is on identifying candidate areas from which potential sites might be selected, stopping short of performing any detailed site evaluations or comparisons. This approach is designed to quickly screen for and characterize candidate areas. Critical assumptions supporting this work include the supply of cooling water to thermoelectric power generation; a methodology to provide an adequate siting footprint for typical power plant applications; a methodology to estimate thermoelectric plant capacity while accounting for available cooling water; and a methodology to account for future ({approx}2035) siting limitations as population increases and demands on freshwater sources change. OR-SAGE algorithms were built to account for these critical assumptions. Stream flow is the primary thermoelectric plant cooling source evaluated in this study. All cooling was assumed to be provided by a closed-cycle cooling (CCC) system requiring makeup water to account for evaporation and blowdown. Limited evaluations of shoreline cooling and the use of municipal processed water (gray) cooling were performed. Using a representative set of SSEC as input to the OR-SAGE tool and employing the accompanying critical assumptions, independent results for the various power generation sources studied were calculated.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

DOE OSTI2016

Cellulose Microfibril Formation by Surface-Tethered Cellulose Synthase Enzymes

Cellulose microfibrils are pseudocrystalline arrays of cellulose chains that are synthesized by cellulose synthases. The enzymes are organized into large membrane-embedded complexes in which each enzyme likely synthesizes and secretes a β-(1→4) glucan. The relationship between the organization of the enzymes in these complexes and cellulose crystallization has not been explored. To better understand this relationship, we used atomic force microscopy to visualize cellulose microfibril formation from nickel-film-immobilized bacterial cellulose synthase enzymes (BcsA-Bs), which in standard solution only form amorphous cellulose from monomeric BcsA-B complexes. Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction techniques show that surface-tethered BcsA-Bs synthesize highly crystalline cellulose II in the presence of UDP-Glc, the allosteric activator cyclic-di-GMP, as well as magnesium. The cellulose II cross section/diameter and the crystal size and crystallinity depend on the surface density of tethered enzymes as well as the overall concentration of substrates. Furthermore, our results provide the correlation between cellulose microfibril formation and the spatial organization of cellulose synthases.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning elastic constants of multi-component alloys

The present manuscript explores application of machine learning methods for determining elastic constants and other derived mechanical properties of multi-component alloys. Here, a number of machine learning models, including linear regression, neural network and random forest based models, are trained and tested on a dataset of binary alloys generated using density functional theory (DFT) calculations and spanning over a large number of elemental species in the periodic table. Starting with a wide range of simple and easily accessible compositionally-averaged elemental features, a correlation-based feature selection strategy was used to systematically down-select a set of most relevant features towards the prediction of the elasticity tensor components. The true predictive performance and the associated uncertainties of the models were established by testing on unseen data and bootstrapping, respectively. A single and pair-wise feature partial dependence analysis was performed to visualize the average property trends in the multi-dimensional feature space in order to further understand the achieved predictive performance. The utility of the trained model is further demonstrated by obtaining sufficiently accurate yet highly efficient approximations for bulk modulus, Young’s modulus, shear modulus and Poisson’s ratio for alloys beyond the binary space (i.e., two-component alloys) on which the model was originally trained. More importantly, we test and validate the predictive performance of the developed model directly against the experimentally measured elastic constants of technologically relevant multi-component alloys (such as, Ni- and Ti-based alloys). Finally, utility of such a data-enabled route is demonstrated by predicting the possible range of various elastic properties for vast composition space available within the five component Ni-Cr-Fe-Mo-W alloy system in a high-throughput manner.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2012

Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion Life Cycle Cost Assessment, Final Technical Report, 30 May 2012

The Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) Life Cycle Cost Assessment (OLCCA) is a study performed by members of the Lockheed Martin (LM) OTEC Team under funding from the Department of Energy (DOE), Award No. DE-EE0002663, dated 01/01/2010. OLCCA objectives are to estimate procurement, operations and maintenance, and overhaul costs for two types of OTEC plants: -Plants moored to the sea floor where the electricity produced by the OTEC plant is directly connected to the grid ashore via a marine power cable (Grid Connected OTEC plants) -Open-ocean grazing OTEC plant-ships producing an energy carrier that is transported to designated ports (Energy Carrier OTEC plants) Costs are developed using the concept of levelized cost of energy established by DOE for use in comparing electricity costs from various generating systems. One area of system costs that had not been developed in detail prior to this analysis was the operations and sustainment (O&S) cost for both types of OTEC plants. Procurement costs, generally referred to as capital expense and O&S costs (operations and maintenance (O&M) costs plus overhaul and replacement costs), are assessed over the 30 year operational life of the plants and an annual annuity calculated to achieve a levelized cost (constant across entire plant life). Dividing this levelized cost by the average annual energy production results in a levelized cost of electricity, or LCOE, for the OTEC plants. Technical and production efficiency enhancements that could result in a lower value of the OTEC LCOE were also explored. The thermal OTEC resource for Oahu, Hawaii and projected build out plan were developed. The estimate of the OTEC resource and LCOE values for the planned OTEC systems enable this information to be displayed as energy supplied versus levelized cost of the supplied energy; this curve is referred to as an Energy Supply Curve. The Oahu Energy Supply Curve represents initial OTEC deployment starting in 2018 and demonstrates the predicted economies of scale as technology and efficiency improvements are realized and larger more economical plants deployed. Utilizing global high resolution OTEC resource assessment from the Ocean Thermal Extractable Energy Visualization (OTEEV) project (an independent DOE project), Global Energy Supply Curves were generated for Grid Connected and Energy Carrier OTEC plants deployed in 2045 when the predicted technology and efficiencies improvements are fully realized. The Global Energy Supply Curves present the LCOE versus capacity in ascending order with the richest, lowest cost resource locations being harvested first. These curves demonstrate the vast ocean thermal resource and potential OTEC capacity that can be harvested with little change in LCOE.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Machine learning to classify animal species in camera trap images: Applications in ecology

Motion-activated cameras (“camera traps”) are increasingly used in ecological and management studies for remotely observing wildlife and are amongst the most powerful tools for wildlife research. However, studies involving camera traps result in millions of images that need to be analysed, typically by visually observing each image, in order to extract data that can be used in ecological analyses. We trained machine learning models using convolutional neural networks with the ResNet-18 architecture and 3,367,383 images to automatically classify wildlife species from camera trap images obtained from five states across the United States. We tested our model on an independent subset of images not seen during training from the United States and on an out-of-sample (or “out-of-distribution” in the machine learning literature) dataset of ungulate images from Canada. We also tested the ability of our model to distinguish empty images from those with animals in another out-of-sample dataset from Tanzania, containing a faunal community that was novel to the model. The trained model classified approximately 2,000 images per minute on a laptop computer with 16 gigabytes of RAM. The trained model achieved 98% accuracy at identifying species in the United States, the highest accuracy of such a model to date. Out-of-sample validation from Canada achieved 82% accuracy and correctly identified 94% of images containing an animal in the dataset from Tanzania. We provide an r package (Machine Learning for Wildlife Image Classification) that allows the users to (a) use the trained model presented here and (b) train their own model using classified images of wildlife from their studies. The use of machine learning to rapidly and accurately classify wildlife in camera trap images can facilitate non-invasive sampling designs in ecological studies by reducing the burden of manually analysing images. Our r package makes these methods accessible to ecologists.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Predicting large-scale pool fire dynamics using an unsteady flamelet- and large-eddy simulation-based model suite

A low-Mach, unstructured, large-eddy-simulation-based, unsteady flamelet approach with a generalized heat loss combustion methodology (including soot generation and consumption mechanisms) is deployed to support a large-scale, quiescent, 5-m JP-8 pool fire validation study. The quiescent pool fire validation study deploys solution sensitivity procedures, i.e., the effect of mesh and time step refinement on capturing key fire dynamics such as fingering and puffing, as mesh resolutions approach O(1) cm. A novel design-order, discrete-ordinate-method discretization methodology is established by use of an analytical thermal/participating media radiation solution on both low-order hexahedral and tetrahedral mesh topologies in addition to quadratic hexahedral elements. Here, the coupling between heat losses and the flamelet thermochemical state is achieved by augmenting the unsteady flamelet equation set with a heat loss source term. Soot and radiation source terms are determined using flamelet approaches for the full range of heat losses experienced in fire applications including radiative extinction. The proposed modeling and simulation paradigm are validated using pool surface radiative heat flux, maximum centerline temperature location, and puffing frequency data, all of which are predicted within 10% accuracy. Simulations demonstrate that under-resolved meshes predict an overly conservative radiative heat flux magnitude with improved comparisons as compared to a previously deployed hybrid Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes/eddy dissipation concept-based methodology.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2016

Atomistic Interrogation of B–N Co-dopant Structures and Their Electronic Effects in Graphene

N/A

Schiros, Theanne↗

DOE OSTI2022

WISP: Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies (Final Technical Report)

The complex interdependencies of cyber systems (sensors and communications), physical grids and associated electricity market operations make protecting electric power grids a significant challenge. The energy sector is constantly under new, targeted, advanced and dangerous cyber-attacks that have the potential to result in the loss of human life. These threats are further exacerbated by our need to modernize the grid. One focus of cyber security research in smart grids is the securing of the SCADA system through advanced intrusion detection systems (IDS) and bad data detection algorithms in state estimation. These methods either require full knowledge of the system topology and parameters or fail to understand the physical behaviors under attack. WISP (Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies) is designed to provide additional protection to the power grid using only publicly available data. In particular, WISP exploits the spatio-temporal nature of the real time locational marginal prices (LMPs), in conjunction with other information such as bids, weather, outages and load data to analyze anomalous power pricing behaviors and then correlate those observations to localize regions of interest and identify potential cyber events. WISP is non-intrusive as the tool is deployed as a service in the Cloud or on premise and provides reliable information to system operators for enhanced situational awareness, without impeding energy delivery functions. The WISP technology comprises three modules: the data-driven anomaly detection core, the vulnerability and risk analysis and the root cause analysis. The data-driven anomaly detection core performs the tasks of feature selection, anomaly detection and attack region localization. The vulnerability and risk analysis module provides system level information of the vulnerable variables and times, assisting the operators in selecting monitoring and protection nodes. The root cause analysis module takes the detection results and identifies potential operational conditions that contribute to the detected anomalies. In Phase I, we have demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of WISP. We developed a realistic electricity market simulator capable of generating normal and attack market data under various operational conditions. We developed a series of cyber-attack detection and analysis algorithms and evaluated them under multiple data sources. Finally, we integrated all modules into an end-to-end software, providing functions for data management, data analytics and visualization. Specifically, we have achieved: (i) real-time data acceptance from external utility interfaces with >99% acceptance rate; (ii) high performance anomaly detection algorithms with >98% detection accuracy and <0.1% false alarm rate; and (iii) ultra-low computing delay <50 milliseconds. Additionally, our team developed algorithms to identify the vulnerable variables in electricity market operations and root cause analysis functions to identify major contributors to the price spikes. These ancillary modules are necessary when deploying WISP in real world industry environment. In Phase II, we have demonstrated the effectiveness of WISP software on realistic largescale power systems. We performed red team testing for the Phase I WISP software and identified software vulnerabilities and implemented corresponding mitigation solutions. We adapted the electricity market simulator for the Texas synthetic 2000-bus system and generated datasets for the false data injection attacks. We created database and visualization interfaces for the Texas system and the ISO New England system. We performed software optimization in terms of operation efficiency, computing speed and detection accuracy. Finally, we tested the software on the Texas system and the ISO New England system and evaluated the detection performance. Overall, we achieved above 89% detection rate, below 3% false alarm rate and below 37 seconds of end-to-end detection delay.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2014

A new method for tracking organ motion on diagnostic ultrasound images

Purpose: Respiratory-gated irradiation is effective in reducing the margins of a target in the case of abdominal organs, such as the liver, that change their position as a result of respiratory motion. However, existing technologies are incapable of directly measuring organ motion in real-time during radiation beam delivery. Hence, the authors proposed a novel quantitative organ motion tracking method involving the use of diagnostic ultrasound images; it is noninvasive and does not entail radiation exposure. In the present study, the authors have prospectively evaluated this proposed method. Methods: The method involved real-time processing of clinical ultrasound imaging data rather than organ monitoring; it comprised a three-dimensional ultrasound device, a respiratory sensing system, and two PCs for data storage and analysis. The study was designed to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method by tracking the gallbladder in one subject and a liver vein in another subject. To track a moving target organ, the method involved the control of a region of interest (ROI) that delineated the target. A tracking algorithm was used to control the ROI, and a large number of feature points and an error correction algorithm were used to achieve long-term tracking of the target. Tracking accuracy was assessed in terms of how well the ROI matched the center of the target. Results: The effectiveness of using a large number of feature points and the error correction algorithm in the proposed method was verified by comparing it with two simple tracking methods. The ROI could capture the center of the target for about 5 min in a cross-sectional image with changing position. Indeed, using the proposed method, it was possible to accurately track a target with a center deviation of 1.54 ± 0.9 mm. The computing time for one frame image using our proposed method was 8 ms. It is expected that it would be possible to track any soft-tissue organ or tumor with large deformations and changing cross-sectional position using this method. Conclusions: The proposed method achieved real-time processing and continuous tracking of the target organ for about 5 min. It is expected that our method will enable more accurate radiation treatment than is the case using indirect observational methods, such as the respiratory sensor method, because of direct visualization of the tumor. Results show that this tracking system facilitates safe treatment in clinical practice.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗