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At least 1,783 records · Page 99
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Metrics for evaluating tropical cyclones in climate data

This manuscript describes a software suite that can be used for objective evaluation of tropical cyclones (TCs) in gridded climate data. Using cyclone trajectories derived from 6-hourly data, a comprehensive set of metrics is defined to systematically compare and contrast products to one another. In addition to annual TC climatologies, attention is paid to spatial and temporal patterns of storm occurrence and intensity. Assessment can be performed either on the global scale or regional domains. Simple to visualize ‘scorecards’ allow for rapid credibility assessment. We showcase three key findings enabled by this suite. First, we compare the representation of TCs in seven current-generation global reanalyses and conclude that higher resolution models and those with TC-specific assimilation contain more accurate storm climatologies. Second, using a free-running Earth system model (ESM) we find that full basin refinement is required in variable-resolution configurations to adequately simulate North Atlantic TC frequency. Furthermore, upstream refinement over northern Africa offers little benefit in simulating storm occurrence but spatial genesis patterns are improved. Finally, we show that TCs simulated by ESMs can be highly sensitive to individual parameterizations in climate models, with North Atlantic TC metrics varying greatly depending on version of the Morrison-Gettelman microphysics package.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Trend of Surface Air Temperature in Eastern China and Associated Large-Scale Climate Variability over the Last 100 Years

Using the reconstructed continuous and homogenized surface air temperature (SAT) series for 16 cities across eastern China (where the greatest industrial developments in China have taken place) back to the nineteenth century, the authors examine linear trends of SAT. The regional-mean SAT over eastern China shows a warming trend of 1.52°C (100 yr) –1 during 1909–2010. It mainly occurred in the past 4 decades and this agrees well with the variability in another SAT series developed from a much denser station network (over 400 sites) across this part of China since 1951. This study collects population data for 245 sites (from these 400+ locations) and split these into five equally sized groups based on population size. Comparison of these five groups across different durations from 30 to 60 yr in length indicates that differences in population only account for between 9% and 24% of the warming since 1951. To show that a larger urbanization impact is very unlikely, the study additionally determines how much can be explained by some large-scale climate indices. Anomalies of large-scale climate indices such as the tropical Indian Ocean SST and the Siberian atmospheric circulation systems account for at least 80% of the total warming trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Metrics for the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation: Toward Routine Benchmarks for Climate Models

In this paper, metrics are proposed—that is, a few summary statistics that condense large amounts of data from observations or model simulations—encapsulating the diurnal cycle of precipitation. Vector area averaging of Fourier amplitude and phase produces useful information in a reasonably small number of harmonic dial plots, a procedure familiar from atmospheric tide research. The metrics cover most of the globe but down-weight high-latitude wintertime ocean areas where baroclinic waves are most prominent. This enables intercomparison of a large number of climate models with observations and with each other. The diurnal cycle of precipitation has features not encountered in typical climate model intercomparisons, notably the absence of meaningful “average model” results that can be displayed in a single two-dimensional map. Displaying one map per model guides development of the metrics proposed here by making it clear that land and ocean areas must be averaged separately, but interpreting maps from all models becomes problematic as the size of a multimodel ensemble increases. Global diurnal metrics provide quick comparisons with observations and among models, using the most recent version of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). This includes, for the first time in CMIP, spatial resolutions comparable to global satellite observations. Finally, consistent with earlier studies of resolution versus parameterization of the diurnal cycle, the longstanding tendency of models to produce rainfall too early in the day persists in the high-resolution simulations, as expected if the error is due to subgrid-scale physics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

The Role of Ocean Dynamical Thermostat in Delaying the El Niño–Like Response over the Equatorial Pacific to Climate Warming

The role of the ocean dynamics in the response of the equatorial Pacific Ocean to climate warming is investigated using both an atmosphere-ocean coupled climate system and its ocean component. Results show that the initial response (fast pattern) to an uniform heating imposed on to the ocean is a warming centered to the west of the dateline owing to the conventional ocean dynamical thermostat (ODT) mechanism in the eastern equatorial Pacific-a cooling effect arising from the up-gradient upwelling. In time, the warming pattern gradually propagates eastward, becoming more El Niño-like (slow pattern). The transition from the fast to the slow patterns is likely resulted from i) the gradual warming of the equatorial thermocline temperature, which is associated with the arrival of the relatively warmer extratropical waters advected along the subsurface branch of the subtropical cells (STC) and ii) the reduction of the STC strength itself. A mixed layer heat budget analysis finds that it is the total ocean dynamical effect rather than the conventional ODT that holds the key for understanding the pattern of the SST in the equatorial Pacific and that the surface heat flux works mainly to compensate the ocean dynamics. Further passive tracer experiments with the ocean component of the coupled system verify the role of the ocean dynamical processes in initiating a La Niña-like SST warming and in setting the pace of the transition to an El Niño-like warming and identify an oceanic origin for the slow eastern Pacific warming independent of the weakening trade wind.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Impacts of the North Atlantic Warming Hole in Future Climate Projections: Mean Atmospheric Circulation and the North Atlantic Jet

In future climate simulations there is a pronounced region of reduced warming in the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic Ocean known as the North Atlantic warming hole (NAWH). This study investigates the impact of the North Atlantic warming hole on atmospheric circulation and midlatitude jets within the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Specifically, a series of large-ensemble atmospheric model experiments with prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice are conducted, in which the warming hole is either filled or deepened. Two mechanisms through which the NAWH impacts the atmosphere are identified: a linear response characterized by a shallow atmospheric cooling and increase in sea level pressure shifted slightly downstream of the SST changes, and a transient eddy forced response whereby the enhanced SST gradient produced by the NAWH leads to increased transient eddy activity that propagates vertically and enhances the midlatitude jet. The relative contributions of these two mechanisms and the details of the response are strongly dependent on the season, time period, and warming hole strength. Our results indicate that the NAWH plays an important role in midlatitude atmospheric circulation changes in CESM future climate simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Mesoscale Convective Systems in Climate Simulations: Methodological Development and Results from MPAS-CAM over the U.S.

In this study, a process-oriented approach is developed to evaluate warm-season mesoscale convective system (MCS) precipitation and their favorable large-scale meteorological patterns (FLSMPs) over the U.S. This approach features a novel observation-driven MCS-tracking algorithm using infrared brightness temperature and precipitation feature at 12, 25 and 50 km resolution and metrics to evaluate the model large-scale environment favorable for MCS initiation. The tracking algorithm successfully reproduces the observed MCS statistics from a reference 4-km radar MCS database. To demonstrate the utility of the new methodologies in evaluating MCS in climate simulations with mesoscale resolution, the process-oriented approach is applied to two climate simulations produced by the Variable-Resolution Model for Prediction Across Scales coupled to the Community Atmosphere Model physics, with refined horizontal grid spacing at 50 km and 25 km over North America. With the tracking algorithm applied to simulations and observations at equivalent resolutions, the simulated number of MCS and associated precipitation amount, frequency and intensity are found to be consistently underestimated in the Central U.S., particularly from May to August. The simulated MCS precipitation shows little diurnal variation and lasts too long, while MCS precipitation area is too large and intensity is too weak. The model is able to simulate four types of observed FLSMP associated with frontal systems and low-level jets (LLJ) in spring, but the frequencies are underestimated because of low-level dry bias and weaker LLJ. Precipitation simulated under different FLSMPs peak during daytime, in contrast to the observed nocturnal peak. Implications of these findings for future model development and diagnostics are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Differential Credibility of Climate Modes in CMIP6

This work quantitatively evaluates the fidelity with which the northern annular mode (NAM), southern annular mode (SAM), Pacific–North American pattern (PNA), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), and the first-order mode interactions are represented in Earth system model (ESM) output from the CMIP6 archive. Several skill metrics are used as part of a differential credibility assessment (DCA) of both spatial and temporal characteristics of the modes across ESMs, ESM families, and specific ESM realizations relative to ERA5. The spatial patterns and probability distributions are generally well represented but skill scores that measure the degree to which the frequencies of maximum variance are captured are consistently lower for most ESMs and climate modes. Substantial variability in skill scores manifests across realizations from individual ESMs for the PNA and oceanic modes. Further, the ESMs consistently overestimate the strength of the NAM–PNA first-order interaction and underestimate the NAM–AMO connection. Furthermore, these results suggest that the choice of ESM and ESM realizations will continue to play a critical role in determining climate projections at the global and regional scale at least in the near term.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

On the Diffusivity of Moist Static Energy and Implications for the Polar Amplification Response to Climate Warming

Energy balance models (EBMs) have been widely used in a range of climate problems, but the assumption of constant diffusivity in the parameterization of the moist static energy (MSE) flux can be hardly justified. We demonstrate in this study that the diffusive MSE flux can be derived from the basic energy balance equation with a few tolerable assumptions. The estimated diffusivity is both spatially and seasonally dependent, and its midlatitude average is then tested against several scaling theories for the midlatitude eddy diffusivity. The result supports the diffusivity theory of Held and Larichev (1996) modified for the moist atmosphere, affording a dynamics-based parameterization of MSE diffusivity. The implementation of the parameterization in an EBM leads to an interactive MSE diffusivity that accounts for the midlatitude eddy response to climate forcing perturbations. Under a uniform radiative forcing, the EBM with a diffusivity so parameterized produces a weakening of the midlatitude diffusivity and a modestly polar-amplified surface temperature response as an inevitable outcome under the dual constraints of the nonlinear Clausius-Clapeyron relation and the temperature gradient-dependent diffusivity, even in the absence of any poleward amplifying radiative feedbacks. As the consequence of more isothermal temperature and reduced diffusivity, the variance of the midlatitude surface temperature also decreases with warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Ocean Mesoscale and Frontal-Scale Ocean–Atmosphere Interactions and Influence on Large-Scale Climate: A Review

Two decades of high-resolution satellite observations and climate modeling studies have indicated strong ocean–atmosphere coupled feedback mediated by ocean mesoscale processes, including semipermanent and meandrous SST fronts, mesoscale eddies, and filaments. The air–sea exchanges in latent heat, sensible heat, momentum, and carbon dioxide associated with this so-called mesoscale air–sea interaction are robust near the major western boundary currents, Southern Ocean fronts, and equatorial and coastal upwelling zones, but they are also ubiquitous over the global oceans wherever ocean mesoscale processes are active. Current theories, informed by rapidly advancing observational and modeling capabilities, have established the importance of mesoscale and frontal-scale air–sea interaction processes for understanding large-scale ocean circulation, biogeochemistry, and weather and climate variability. However, numerous challenges remain to accurately diagnose, observe, and simulate mesoscale air–sea interaction to quantify its impacts on large-scale processes. This article provides a comprehensive review of key aspects pertinent to mesoscale air–sea interaction, synthesizes current understanding with remaining gaps and uncertainties, and provides recommendations on theoretical, observational, and modeling strategies for future air–sea interaction research.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

ENSO-Induced Teleconnection: Process-Oriented Diagnostics to Assess Rossby Wave Sources and Ambient Flow Properties in Climate Models

Climate model fidelity in representing ENSO-induced teleconnection is assessed with process-oriented diagnostics that examine a chain of processes, from equatorial Pacific precipitation to the midlatitude circulation pattern over the Pacific–North American regions. Such processes are rarely addressed during model development. Using an upper-tropospheric divergent level, local vorticity gradient of the ambient zonal flow (∂ 2 U¯/∂y 2 ) and a restoring force for Rossby waves (β * ) are estimated, the equivalent barotropic vorticity equation is solved, and an anomalous Rossby wave source (RWS') quantified. The analysis is applied to AMIP5 and AMIP6 simulations. For a realistic circulation response representation, the hypothesis that models accurately represent the strength and location of RWS', and spatial variations in β * is tested. Compared to AMIP5, in AMIP6 there are clear improvements in representing RWS' and β * . To validate the hypothesis, the analysis identifies two metrics: spatially coherent RWS' in the subtropical North Pacific, and longitudes of negative β * over the western-central North Pacific. By projecting these metrics in two and three-dimensional views, improvements or degradations in model versions are apparent. If a model’s fidelity in representing ∂ 2 U¯/∂y 2 and RWS' are compromised, then radiated Rossby waves are reflected more equatorward, resulting in zonally elongated circulation anomalies over the central North Pacific. Thus, during climate model development, applying this analysis frequently will keep a regular check on the fidelity of the modeled response to anomalous El Niño convection in conjunction with changing model ambient flow dependencies. As a result, this analysis is intended to form a process-oriented diagnostics package, a community contribution to the NOAA Model Diagnostics Task Force.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coastal Sea Level Observations Record the Twentieth-Century Enhancement of Decadal Climate Variability

Changes in the amplitude of decadal climate variability over the twentieth century have been noted, with most evidence derived from tropical Pacific sea surface temperature records. However, the length, spatial coverage, and stability of most instrumental records are insufficient to robustly identify such nonstationarity, or resolve its global spatial structure. Here, it is found that the long-term, stable, observing platform provided by tide gauges reveals a dramatic increase in the amplitude and spatial coherence of decadal (11–14-yr period) coastal sea level (ζ) variability between 1960 and 2000. During this epoch, western North American ζ was approximately out of phase with ζ in Sydney, Australia, and led northeastern U.S. ζ by approximately 1–2 years. The amplitude and timing of changes in decadal ζ variability in these regions are consistent with changes in atmospheric variability. Specifically, central equatorial Pacific wind stress and Labrador Sea heat flux are highly coherent and exhibit contemporaneous, order-of-magnitude increases in decadal power. These statistical relationships have a mechanistic underpinning: Along the western North American coastline, equatorial winds are known to drive rapidly propagating ζ signals along equatorial and coastal waveguides, while a 1–2-yr lag between Labrador Sea heat fluxes and northeastern United States ζ is consistent with a remotely forced, buoyancy-driven, mechanism. Tide gauges thus provide strong independent support for an increase in interbasin coherence on decadal time scales over the second half of the twentieth century, with implications for both the interpretation and prediction of climate and sea level variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of CMIP5 and CMIP6 AMIP Simulated Clouds and Surface Shortwave Radiation Using ARM Observations over Different Climate Regions

The simulations of clouds and surface radiation from 10 CMIP6 models and their CMIP5 predecessors are compared to the ARM ground-based observations over different climate regions. Compared to the ARM radar-lidar derived total cloud fractions (CFT) and cloud fraction vertical distributions over the six selected sites, both CMIP5 and CMIP6 significantly underestimated CFT and low-level CF over the Northern Hemispheric midlatitude sites (SGPC1 and ENAC1), although the biases are generally smaller in CMIP6. Over the tropical oceanic site (TWPC2), 5 out of 10 CMIP6 models better simulated low-level CF than their CMIP5 predecessors. CMIP6 simulations generally agreed well with the ARM observations in CFT and cloud fraction vertical distributions over the tropical continental (MAOM1) and coastal (TWPC3) sites but missed the transitions between dry and wet seasons, similar to CMIP5 simulations. The improvements in downwelling shortwave fluxes (SWdn) at the surface from the majority of CMIP6 compared to CMIP5 primarily resulted from the improved cloud fraction simulations, especially over the SGPC1, ENAC1, and TWPC3 sites. By contrast, both CMIP5 and CMIP6 models exhibited diverse performances of clouds and shortwave radiation over the Arctic site (NSAC1), where CMIP6 models produced more clouds than CMIP5 models, especially for the low-level clouds. The comparisons between observations and CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations provide valuable quantitative assessments of the accuracy of mean states and variabilities in the model simulations and shed light on general directions to improve climate models in different regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Investigating Resiliency of Transportation Network under Targeted and Potential Climate Change Disruptions

Ensuring robustness and resilience in intermodal transportation systems is essential for the continuity and reliability of global logistics. These systems are vulnerable to various disruptions, including natural disasters and technical failures. Despite significant research on freight transportation resilience, investigating the robustness of the system after targeted and climate-change-driven disruption remains a crucial challenge. Drawing on network science methodologies, this study models the interdependencies within the rail and water transport networks and simulates different disruption scenarios to evaluate system responses. Here, we use the data from the U.S. Department of Energy Volpe Center for network topology and tonnage projections. The proposed framework quantifies deliberate, stochastic, and climate-driven infrastructure failure, using higher resolution downscaled multiple Earth System Models’ simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase version 6. We show that the disruptions of a few nodes could have a larger impact on the total tonnage of freight transport than on network topology. For example, the removal of targeted 20 nodes can bring the total tonnage carrying capacity to 30% with about 75% of the rail freight network intact. This research advances the theoretical understanding of transportation resilience and provides practical applications for infrastructure managers and policymakers. By implementing these strategies, stakeholders and policymakers can better prepare for and respond to unexpected disruptions, ensuring sustained operational efficiency in transportation networks.

Climate Change Disruptions↗
DOE OSTI2016

Understanding climate-induced migration through computational modeling: A critical overview with guidance for future efforts

Climate change has the potential to displace large populations in many parts of the developed and developing world. Understanding why, how, and when environmental migrants decide to move is critical to successful strategic planning within organizations tasked with helping the affected groups, and mitigating their systemic impacts. One way to support planning is through the employment of computational modeling techniques. Models can provide a window into possible futures, allowing planners and decision makers to test different scenarios in order to understand what might happen. While modeling is a powerful tool, it presents both opportunities and challenges. This paper builds a foundation for the broader community of model consumers and developers by: providing an overview of pertinent climate-induced migration research, describing some different types of models and how to select the most relevant one(s), highlighting three perspectives on obtaining data to use in said model(s), and the consequences associated with each. It concludes with two case studies based on recent research that illustrate what can happen when ambitious modeling efforts are undertaken without sufficient planning, oversight, and interdisciplinary collaboration. Lastly, we hope that the broader community can learn from our experiences and apply this knowledge to their own modeling research efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Estimating the Maximum Achievable Productivity in Outdoor Ponds: Microalgae Biomass Growth Modeling and Climate Simulated Culturing

To address the challenge of determining the maximum achievable monthly, seasonal, and annual biomass productivity for selected promising strains in outdoor ponds at any geographic location of interest, we developed the following four step integrated strategy. First, the strain is characterized in terms of its specific growth rate response to temperature and light, including darkness, as well as its light attenuation characteristics. Second, these species-specific parameters serve as inputs to PNNL’s biomass growth model that, in conjunction with the sunlight and pond water temperature predictions provided by PNNL’s Biomass Assessment Tool, is used to predict the respective biomass productivities for tens of thousands of hypothetical pond locations in the United States. Third, monthly and annual biomass productivity maps are created to identify the geographic location(s) of optimum biomass productivity and to generate light and water temperature “scripts” (time series) for hypothetical ponds at the best site(s). Finally, the maximum achievable biomass productivity for the given strain is confirmed by conducting culture experiments in PNNL’s indoor LED-lighted and temperature-controlled ponds under climate-simulated conditions, using the previously determined light and temperature scripts. This integrated strategy provides an efficient and low risk approach to screen promising strains for their potential to exhibit high biomass productivities, and to validate their model-predicted performance in climate-simulation ponds before transitioning to cultivation in outdoor raceways.

biomass assessment tool↗
DOE OSTI2016

Effects of Temperature on Development and Voltinism of Chaetodactylus krombeini (Acari: Chaetodactylidae): Implications for Climate Change Impacts

Temperature plays an important role in the growth and development of arthropods, and thus the current trend of climate change will alter their biology and species distribution. We used Chaetodactylus krombeini (Acari: Chaetodactylidae), a cleptoparasitic mite associated with Osmia bees (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae), as a model organism to investigate how temperature affects the development and voltinism of C. krombeini in the eastern United States. The effects of temperature on the stage-specific development of C. krombeini were determined at seven constant temperatures (16.1, 20.2, 24.1, 27.5, 30.0, 32.4 and 37.8°C). Parameters for stage-specific development, such as threshold temperatures and thermal constant, were determined by using empirical models. Results of this study showed that C. krombeini eggs developed successfully to adult at all temperatures tested except 37.8°C. The nonlinear and linear empirical models were applied to describe quantitatively the relationship between temperature and development of each C. krombeini stage. The nonlinear Lactin model estimated optimal temperatures as 31.4, 32.9, 32.6 and 32.5°C for egg, larva, nymph, and egg to adult, respectively. In the linear model, the lower threshold temperatures were estimated to be 9.9, 14.7, 13.0 and 12.4°C for egg, larva, nymph, and egg to adult, respectively. The thermal constant for each stage completion were 61.5, 28.1, 64.8 and 171.1 degree days for egg, larva, nymph, and egg to adult, respectively. Under the future climate scenarios, the number of generations (i.e., voltinism) would increase more likely by 1.5 to 2.0 times by the year of 2100 according to simulation. Lastly, the findings herein firstly provided comprehensive data on thermal development of C. krombeini and implications for the management of C. krombeini populations under global warming were discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate change alters slug abundance but not herbivory in a temperate grassland

Climate change will significantly impact the world’s ecosystems, in part by altering species interactions and ecological processes, such as herbivory and plant community dynamics, which may impact forage quality and ecosystem production. Yet relatively few field experimental manipulations assessing all of these parameters have been performed to date. To help fill this knowledge gap, we evaluated the effects of increased temperature (+3°C day and night, year-round) and precipitation (+30% of mean annual rainfall) on slug herbivory and abundance and plant community dynamics biweekly in a pasture located in central Kentucky, U.S.A. Warming increased slug abundance once during the winter, likely due to improving conditions for foraging, whereas warming reduced slug abundance at times in late spring, mid-summer, and early fall (from 62–95% reduction depending on month). We found that warming and increased precipitation did not significantly modify slug herbivory at our site, despite altering slug abundance and affecting plant community composition and forage quality. Climate change will alter seasonal patterns of slug abundance through both direct effects on slug biology and indirect effects mediated by changes in the plant community, suggesting that pasture management practices may have to adapt.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of simulations of near-surface variables using the regional climate model CCLM for the MOSAiC winter period

The ship-based experiment MOSAiC 2019/2020 was carried out during a full year in the Arctic and yielded an excellent data set to test the parameterizations of ocean/sea-ice/atmosphere interaction processes in regional climate models (RCMs). In the present paper, near-surface data during MOSAiC are used for the verification of the RCM COnsortium for Small-scale MOdel–Climate Limited area Mode (COSMO-CLM or CCLM). CCLM is used in a forecast mode (nested in ERA5) for the whole Arctic with 15 km resolution and is run with different configurations of sea ice data. These include the standard sea ice concentration taken from passive microwave data with around 6 km resolution, sea ice concentration from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) thermal infrared data and MODIS sea ice lead fraction data for the winter period. CCLM simulations show a good agreement with the measurements. Relatively large negative biases for temperature occur for November and December, which are likely associated with a too large ice thickness used by CCLM. The consideration of sea ice leads in the sub-grid parameterization in CCLM yields improved results for the near-surface temperature. ERA5 data show a large warm bias of about 2.5°C and an underestimation of the temperature variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗