Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “uncertainty analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,765 records · Page 98
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Assessment of CTF for Steady-state and Transient Post-CHF Conditions in Support of Time-at-Temperature Modeling Applications

The US nuclear industry is exploring options to improve operational economics and uprate the current fleet of light-water reactors by investigating transitioning to cladding performance–based safety criteria as opposed to the current limit, which requires complete avoidance of critical heat flux (CHF)/dryout. Past experience has shown that not all events leading to a dryout are severe enough to cause fuel performance degradation. Allowing temporary dryout of the fuel—that is, using a time-at-temperature (TaT) strategy—could allow for economic improvements via large power uprates and enhanced operational flexibility for current plants without compromising fuel integrity. To support this effort, the US Department of Energy is executing a comprehensive program that includes generating cladding material data under TaT conditions, developing new mechanistic models, and demonstrating modeling and simulation capabilities for transients of interest. This paper presents work performed to assess the CTF thermal-hydraulics subchannel code. CTF is a package used in the VERA core simulator, which will ultimately be used for TaT analysis. CTF will provide the thermal-hydraulic boundary conditions that will be needed for fuel performance analysis in the BISON code. Quantifying both the accuracy and uncertainty of post-CHF models will therefore be necessary. This paper outlines the strategy for the assessment of TaT and presents the results of using the steady-state and transient dryout experiments of the Boiling Fine-mesh Bundle Tests for CTF validation. The results show that the current model tends to overpredict steady-state critical power. This behavior translates to the transient tests, in which CTF is unable to capture transient dryout behavior. Some discussion of sensitivity analysis work being performed is provided to indicate which models must be further analyzed to properly model transient dryout and its uncertainty.

Salko Jr, Robert [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000253566679)↗
NASA NTRS1990

Analysis of AVHRR, CZCS and historical in situ data off the Oregon Coast

The original scientific objectives of this grant were to: (1) characterize the seasonal cycles and interannual variability for phytoplankton concentrations and sea surface temperature (SST) in the California Current using satellite data; and (2) to explore the spatial and temporal relationship between these variables and surface wind forcing. An additional methodological objective was to develop statistical methods for forming mean fields, which minimize the effects of random data gaps and errors in the irregularly sampled CZCS (Coastal Zone Color Scanner) and AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) satellite data. A final task was to evaluate the level of uncertainty in the wind fields used for the statistical analysis. Funding in the first year included part of the cost of an image processing system to enable this and other projects to process and analyze satellite data. This report consists of summaries of the major projects carried out with all or partial support from this grant. The appendices include a list of papers and professional presentations supported by the grant, as well as reprints of the major papers and reports.

Strub, P. Ted↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparing traditional and Bayesian approaches to ecological meta‐analysis

Abstract Despite the wide application of meta‐analysis in ecology, some of the traditional methods used for meta‐analysis may not perform well given the type of data characteristic of ecological meta‐analyses. We reviewed published meta‐analyses on the ecological impacts of global climate change, evaluating the number of replicates used in the primary studies ( n i ) and the number of studies or records ( k ) that were aggregated to calculate a mean effect size. We used the results of the review in a simulation experiment to assess the performance of conventional frequentist and Bayesian meta‐analysis methods for estimating a mean effect size and its uncertainty interval. Our literature review showed that n i and k were highly variable, distributions were right‐skewed and were generally small (median n i = 5, median k = 44). Our simulations show that the choice of method for calculating uncertainty intervals was critical for obtaining appropriate coverage (close to the nominal value of 0.95). When k was low (<40), 95% coverage was achieved by a confidence interval (CI) based on the t distribution that uses an adjusted standard error (the Hartung–Knapp–Sidik–Jonkman, HKSJ), or by a Bayesian credible interval, whereas bootstrap or z distribution CIs had lower coverage. Despite the importance of the method to calculate the uncertainty interval, 39% of the meta‐analyses reviewed did not report the method used, and of the 61% that did, 94% used a potentially problematic method, which may be a consequence of software defaults. In general, for a simple random‐effects meta‐analysis, the performance of the best frequentist and Bayesian methods was similar for the same combinations of factors ( k and mean replication), though the Bayesian approach had higher than nominal (>95%) coverage for the mean effect when k was very low ( k < 15). Our literature review suggests that many meta‐analyses that used z distribution or bootstrapping CIs may have overestimated the statistical significance of their results when the number of studies was low; more appropriate methods need to be adopted in ecological meta‐analyses.

Pappalardo, Paula↗
NASA NTRS1991

Robust control with structured perturbations

This semi-annual report describes continued progress on the research. Among several approaches in this area of research, our approach to the parametric uncertainties are being matured everyday. This approach deals with real parameter uncertainties which other techniques such as H (sup infinity) optimal control, micron analysis and synthesis, and l(sub 1) optimal control cannot deal. The primary assumption of this approach is that the mathematical models are well obtained so that the most of system uncertainties can be translated into parameter uncertainties of their linear system representations. These uncertainties may be due to modeling, nonlinearity of the physical system, some time-varying parameters, etc. In this report period of research, we are concentrating on implementing a computer aided analysis and design tool based on new results on parametric robust stability. This implementation will help us to reveal further details in this approach.

Keel, Leehyun↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data from: Comparing traditional and Bayesian approaches to ecological meta-analysis

Despite the wide application of meta-analysis in ecology, some of the traditional methods used for meta-analysis may not perform well given the type of data characteristic of ecological meta-analyses. We reviewed published meta-analyses on the ecological impacts of global climate change, evaluating the number of replicates used in the primary studies (ni) and the number of studies or records (k) that were aggregated to calculate a mean effect size. We used the results of the review in a simulation experiment to assess the performance of conventional frequentist and Bayesian meta-analysis methods for estimating a mean effect size and its uncertainty interval. Our literature review showed that ni and k were highly variable, distributions were right-skewed, and were generally small (median ni =5, median k=44). Our simulations show that the choice of method for calculating uncertainty intervals was critical for obtaining appropriate coverage (close to the nominal value of 0.95). When k was low (<40), 95% coverage was achieved by a confidence interval based on the t-distribution that uses an adjusted standard error (the Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman, HKSJ), or by a Bayesian credible interval, whereas bootstrap or z-distribution confidence intervals had lower coverage. Despite the importance of the method to calculate the uncertainty interval, 39% of the meta-analyses reviewed did not report the method used, and of the 61% that did, 94% used a potentially problematic method, which may be a consequence of software defaults. In general, for a simple random-effects meta-analysis, the performance of the best frequentist and Bayesian methods were similar for the same combinations of factors (k and mean replication), though the Bayesian approaches had higher than nominal (>95%) coverage for the mean effect when k was very low (k<15). Our literature review suggests that many meta-analyses that used z-distribution or bootstrapping confidence intervals may have over-estimated the statistical significance of their results when the number of studies was low; more appropriate methods need to be adopted in ecological meta-analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1986

Measurements for liquid rocket engine performance code verification

The goal of the rocket engine performance code verification tests is to obtain the I sub sp with an accuracy of 0.25% or less. This needs to be done during the sequence of four related tests (two reactive and two hot gas simulation) to best utilize the loss separation technique recommended in this study. In addition to I sub sp, the measurements of the input and output parameters for the codes are needed. This study has shown two things in regard to obtaining the I sub sp uncertainty within the 0.25% target. First, this target is generally not being realized at the present time, and second, the instrumentation and testing technology does exist to obtain this 0.25% uncertainty goal. However, to achieve this goal will require carefully planned, designed, and conducted testing. In addition, the test-stand (or system) dynamics must be evaluated in the pre-test and post-test phases of the design of the experiment and data analysis, respectively always keeping in mind that a .25% overall uncertainty in I sub sp is targeted. A table gives the maximum allowable uncertainty required for obtaining I sub sp with 0.25% uncertainty, the currently-quoted instrument specification, and present test uncertainty for the parameters. In general, it appears that measurement of the mass flow parameter within the required uncertainty may be the most difficult.

Praharaj, Sarat C.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Detailed Evaluation of MODIS Fire Radiative Power Measurements

Satellite remote sensing is providing us tremendous opportunities to measure the fire radiative energy (FRE) release rate or power (FRP) from open biomass burning, which affects many vegetated regions of the world on a seasonal basis. Knowledge of the biomass burning characteristics and emission source strengths of different (particulate and gaseous) smoke constituents is one of the principal ingredients upon which the assessment, modeling, and forecasting of their distribution and impacts depend. This knowledge can be gained through accurate measurement of FRP, which has been shown to have a direct relationship with the rates of biomass consumption and emissions of major smoke constituents. Over the last decade or so, FRP has been routinely measured from space by both the MODIS sensors aboard the polar orbiting Terra and Aqua satellites, and the SEVIRI sensor aboard the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) geostationary satellite. During the last few years, FRP has been gaining recognition as an important parameter for facilitating the development of various scientific studies relating to the quantitative characterization of biomass burning and their emissions. Therefore, we are conducting a detailed analysis of the FRP products from MODIS to characterize the uncertainties associated with them, such as those due to the MODIS bow-tie effects and other factors, in order to establish their error budget for use in scientific research and applications. In this presentation, we will show preliminary results of the MODIS FRP data analysis, including comparisons with airborne measurements.

Ichoku, Charles↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predictive Modeling and Uncertainty Quantification in Condition Monitoring of Active Components: A Reactor Coolant Pump Use Case

This work develops data-driven models for onset of thermal barrier leakage in reactor coolant pumps. It incorporates uncertainty quantification to enhance the reliability and robustness of pre- dictions. Using synthetic data generated by the Generic Pressurized Water Reactor simulator, realistic degradation scenarios were simulated across lifecycle stages—beginning, middle, and end of life. Key variables, including differential pressure, flow rate, vibration, and temperatures, were analyzed using machine learning framework. The fully connected neural network models demonstrated exceptional performance, achieving R2 scores exceeding 0.99 and root mean square errors as low as around 8.23 × 10-2 gallon per minute (gpm) for the three stages of the lifecy- cle. UQ analysis further validated the model’s robustness, with narrow uncertainty bounds during steady-state operations and appropriately wider bounds during transitional phases, reflecting the physical behavior of the system. This work addresses important gaps in real-time condition moni- toring and regulatory compliance by integrating advanced condition monitoring technologies with UQ into IST programs. The ability to detect thermal barrier leakage early and quantify prediction reliability supports optimizing maintenance strategies while ensuring nuclear power plants’ safe and reliable operation.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS1987

Development of response models for the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) sensors. Part 3: ERBE scanner measurement accuracy analysis due to reduced housekeeping data

The accuracy of scanner measurements was evaluated when the sampling frequency of sensor housekeeping (HK) data was reduced from once every scan to once every eight scans. The resulting increase in uncertainty was greatest for sources with rapid or extreme temperature changes. This analysis focused on the mirror attenuator mosaic (MAM) baffle and plate and scanner radiometer baffle due to their relatively high temperature changes during solar calibrations. Since only solar simulator data were available, the solar temperatures were approximated on these components and the radiative and thermal gradients in the MAM baffle due to reflected sunlight. Of the two cases considered for the MAM plate and baffle temperatures, one uses temperatures obtained from the ground calibration. The other attempt uses temperatures computed from the MAM baffle model. This analysis shows that the heat input variations due largely to the solar radiance and irradiance during a scan cycle are small. It also demonstrates that reasonable intervals longer than the current HK data acquisition interval should not significantly affect the estimation of a radiation field in the sensor field-of-view.

Choi, Sang H.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Time-of-Flight Calculations with Multiple Beam Phase Monitors: Calibration, Jitter Analysis & Energy Measurement

This report describes time-of-flight (ToF) beam energy measurements with multiple phase monitors in a beam line with no acceleration. Measurement uncertainty is quantified via rigorous treatment of beam-based phase monitor calibration and jitter analysis of the accelerator system. Experimental results in the Superconducting Linac (SCL) of the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) are presented.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
NASA NTRS2025

Mission-Maps For Outbound Cislunar Transfer Trajectories

This study quantifies the robustness and sensitivity of an outbound cislunar trajectory for a lunar lander in the form of mission-maps, or topological maps that allows either a computer program or mission designer to intuitively optimize the placement of critical outbound correction burns from the derived sensitivity data. The non-linear multi-body dynamics are applied to generate an outbound cislunar reference profile used by a linear covariance analysis (LinCov) tool to compute the expected Δv and trajectory dispersions due to the initial state uncertainty, sensor errors, maneuver execution errors, and disturbance accelerations along the outbound cislunar profile. The rapid performance analysis capabilities of LinCov are complimented with parallel processing techniques to evaluate hundreds and thousands of different translational burn locations, placements, and targeting constraints to identify the combination that minimizes the total Δv usage (nominal plus 3σ Δv) and trajectory dispersions at lunar orbit insertion. This study utilizes a generalized reference targeting algorithm to quickly assess the integrated closed-loop GN&C system performance due to different targeting configurations and constraints. The resulting mission maps provide an intuitive insight to ascertain each trajectory correction maneuver’s (TCM) sensitivity to different burn times along an outbound cislunar trajectory and quickly identify desirable engineering tradeoffs when performing analysis on the number and placement of these burns that nominally zero. Multiple mission maps are generated for a variety of different performance parameters that allow engineers to visually identify optimal solutions for trajectory correction maneuver placements, the number of correction burns, and the targeting constraints for each burn.

GN&C↗
NASA NTRS1994

Are models of catalytic removal of O3 by HO(x) accurate? Constraints from in situ measurements of the OH to HO2 ratio

Measurements of the ratio OH/HO2, NO, O3, ClO, and BrO were obtained at altitudes from 15-20 km and latitudes from 15-60 deg N. A method is presented for interpreting the rates of chemical transformations that (1) are responsible for over half the ozone removal rate in the lower stratosphere via reactions of HO2; and (2) control the abundance of HO2 through coupling to nitrogen and halogen radicals. The results show our understanding of the chemical reactions controlling the partitioning of OH and HO2 is complete and accurate and that the potential effects of 'missing chemistry' are strickly constrained in the region of the atmosphere encompassed by the observations. The analysis demonstrates that the sensitivity of the ratio OH/HO2 to changes in NO is described to within 12% by current models. This reduces by more than a factor of 2 the effect of uncertainty in the coupling of hydrogen and nitrogen radicals on the analysis of the potential effects of perturbations to odd notrogen in the lower statosphere.

Cohen, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Failure Bounding And Sensitivity Analysis Applied To Monte Carlo Entry, Descent, And Landing Simulations

In the study of entry, descent, and landing, Monte Carlo sampling methods are often employed to study the uncertainty in the designed trajectory. The large number of uncertain inputs and outputs, coupled with complicated non-linear models, can make interpretation of the results difficult. Three methods that provide statistical insights are applied to an entry, descent, and landing simulation. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed in terms of the insights gained versus the computational cost. The first method investigated was failure domain bounding which aims to reduce the computational cost of assessing the failure probability. Next a variance-based sensitivity analysis was studied for the ability to identify which input variable uncertainty has the greatest impact on the uncertainty of an output. Finally, probabilistic sensitivity analysis is used to calculate certain sensitivities at a reduced computational cost. These methods produce valuable information that identifies critical mission parameters and needs for new technology, but generally at a significant computational cost.

Gaebler, John A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Derisking Superhot Geothermal Plays with Value of Information: Utilizing Play Fairway Analysis, Geophysics and Technoeconomics

This paper describes a methodology for evaluating how the play fairways analysis (e.g., favorability) can improve our chances of making geothermal development decisions. We make statistical resource assessments and couple them with technoeconomic analysis utilizing previous favorability work performed for the Newberry Volcano. We demonstrate how the favorability can be used in a decision analysis framework because the Newberry favorability also estimated an associated uncertainty. The specific decision considered is how large of a power plant to build, which is difficult given the uncertainty about the resource size. Our results focus on two resource types, hydrothermal and enhanced geothermal systems, and they demonstrate how estimates of the minimum, most likely, and maximum estimates of the geothermal resource (denoted as the P10, P50, and P90, respectively) can be used in a decision analysis framework. Lastly, the value of information results explore using favorability with and without the magnetotelluric and gravity data from the Newberry Volcano. As expected, the favorability is more reliable, according to our methodology, at indicating the resource size when it includes the two geophysical models.

enhanced geothermal system↗
DOE OSTI2023

Measurement of the muon anomalous precession frequency at the Muon g − 2 Experiment at Fermilab

The anomalous magnetic moment of the muon, $a_\mu = \frac{g-2}{2}$ is the fractional deviation of the muon $g$-factor from the value of 2. It emerges as the cumulative effect of the virtual particles participating in the muon interaction with a magnetic field via quantum loop corrections. Its value encodes all the possible interactions between the virtual particles and, for this reason, represents an important test of the Standard Model (SM). In particular, any deviation from the SM theoretical evaluation could be due to new physics contributions. The new Muon $g-2$ (E989) Experiment at Fermilab is currently operating to repeat and improve the previous E821 experiment at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL), aiming to reduce the experimental error by a factor of 4 to the final accuracy of 140 parts per billion (ppb). On April 7th, 2021, the E989 collaboration published the first result based on the first year of data taking (Run-1), measuring $a_\mu = 0.001~165~920~40(54)$ with a precision of 460 ppb. The measured value is consistent with the BNL measurement and strengthens the long-standing tension with the data-driven SM prediction to a combined discrepancy of 4.2$\sigma$. On the theory side, however, new efforts involving lattice-QCD techniques are starting to question the current consensus on the theoretical prediction, demanding new improvements on both the experimental and theoretical sides. The E989 collaboration is now finalizing the analysis of Run-2 and Run-3 data and a new publication is expected in the first half of 2023 with a combined statistical uncertainty of 200 ppb. The anomalous magnetic moment $a_\mu$ is measured as the ratio between the muon spin anomalous precession frequency, $\omega_a$, and the average magnetic field experienced by the muons as they circulate in the storage ring. This thesis presents a precession frequency analysis of the Run-1 data and an evaluation of the related systematic uncertainties. A new positron reconstruction developed for the analysis of the subsequent data-taking periods, aiming to reduce some of the major systematic uncertainties of the $\omega_a$ measurement, is presented. The author's involvement in the production of the Run-2/5 data and in the precise calibration of the detectors is discussed. Finally, the complete Run-1 $a_\mu$ result is presented.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
NASA NTRS2012

Multi-Satellite Synergy for Aerosol Analysis in the Asian Monsoon Region

Atmospheric aerosols represent one of the greatest uncertainties in environmental and climate research, particularly in tropical monsoon regions such as the Southeast Asian regions, where significant contributions from a variety of aerosol sources and types is complicated by unstable atmospheric dynamics. Although aerosols are now routinely retrieved from multiple satellite Sensors, in trying to answer important science questions about aerosol distribution, properties, and impacts, researchers often rely on retrievals from only one or two sensors, thereby running the risk of incurring biases due to sensor/algorithm peculiarities. We are conducting detailed studies of aerosol retrieval uncertainties from various satellite sensors (including Terra-/ Aqua-MODIS, Terra-MISR, Aura-OMI, Parasol-POLDER, SeaWiFS, and Calipso-CALIOP), based on the collocation of these data products over AERONET and other important ground stations, within the online Multi-sensor Aerosol Products Sampling System (MAPSS) framework that was developed recently. Such analyses are aimed at developing a synthesis of results that can be utilized in building reliable unified aerosol information and climate data records from multiple satellite measurements. In this presentation, we will show preliminary results of. an integrated comparative uncertainly analysis of aerosol products from multiple satellite sensors, particularly focused on the Asian Monsoon region, along with some comparisons from the African Monsoon region.

Ichoku, Charles↗
NASA NTRS2010

Analysis of Air Traffic Track Data with the AutoBayes Synthesis System

The Next Generation Air Traffic System (NGATS) is aiming to provide substantial computer support for the air traffic controllers. Algorithms for the accurate prediction of aircraft movements are of central importance for such software systems but trajectory prediction has to work reliably in the presence of unknown parameters and uncertainties. We are using the AutoBayes program synthesis system to generate customized data analysis algorithms that process large sets of aircraft radar track data in order to estimate parameters and uncertainties. In this paper, we present, how the tasks of finding structure in track data, estimation of important parameters in climb trajectories, and the detection of continuous descent approaches can be accomplished with compact task-specific AutoBayes specifications. We present an overview of the AutoBayes architecture and describe, how its schema-based approach generates customized analysis algorithms, documented C/C++ code, and detailed mathematical derivations. Results of experiments with actual air traffic control data are discussed.

Schumann, Johann Martin Philip↗