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At least 1,765 records · Page 98

SN 2018fif: The Explosion of a Large Red Supergiant Discovered in Its Infancy by the Zwicky Transient Facility

High-cadence transient surveys are able to capture supernovae closer to their first light than ever before. Applying analytical models to such early emission, we can constrain the progenitor stars' properties. Here, we present observations of SN 2018fif (ZTF 18abokyfk). The supernova was discovered close to first light and monitored by the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) and the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory. Early spectroscopic observations suggest that the progenitor of SN 2018fif was surrounded by relatively small amounts of circumstellar material compared to all previous cases. This particularity, coupled with the high-cadence multiple-band coverage, makes it a good candidate to investigate using shock-cooling models. We employ the SOPRANOS code, an implementation of the model by Sapir & Waxman and its extension to early times by Morag et al. Compared with previous implementations, SOPRANOS has the advantage of including a careful account of the limited temporal validity domain of the shock-cooling model as well as allowing usage of the entirety of the early UV data. We find that the progenitor of SN 2018fif was a large red supergiant with a radius of $R={744.0}_{-128.0}^{+183.0}\,{R}_{\odot }$ and an ejected mass of ${M}_{\mathrm{ej}}={9.3}_{-5.8}^{+0.4}\,{M}_{\odot }$. Our model also gives information on the explosion epoch, the progenitor's inner structure, the shock velocity, and the extinction. The distribution of radii is double-peaked, with smaller radii corresponding to lower values of the extinction, earlier recombination times, and a better match to the early UV data. If these correlations persist in future objects, denser spectroscopic monitoring constraining the time of recombination, as well as accurate UV observations (e.g., with ULTRASAT), will help break the extinction/radius degeneracy and independently determine both.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Small-amplitude Compressible Magnetohydrodynamic Turbulence Modulated by Collisionless Damping in Earth’s Magnetosheath: Observation Matches Theory

Plasma turbulence is a ubiquitous dynamical process that transfers energy across many spatial and temporal scales and affects energetic particle transport. Recent advances in the understanding of compressible magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) turbulence demonstrate the important role of damping in shaping energy distributions on small scales, yet its observational evidence is still lacking. This study provides the first observational evidence of substantial collisionless damping (CD) modulation on the small-amplitude compressible MHD turbulence cascade in Earth’s magnetosheath using four Cluster spacecraft. Based on an improved compressible MHD decomposition algorithm, turbulence is decomposed into three eigenmodes: incompressible Alfvén modes and compressible slow and fast (magnetosonic) modes. Our observations demonstrate that CD enhances the anisotropy of compressible MHD modes because CD has a strong dependence on wave propagation angle. The wavenumber distributions of slow modes are mainly stretched perpendicular to the background magnetic field (B 0 ) and weakly modulated by CD. In contrast, fast modes are subjected to a more significant CD modulation. Fast modes exhibit a weak, scale-independent anisotropy above the CD truncation scale. Below the CD truncation scale, the anisotropy of fast modes enhances as wavenumbers increase. As a result, fast-mode fractions in the total energy of compressible modes decrease with the increase of perpendicular wavenumber (to B 0 ) or wave propagation angle. Our findings reveal how the turbulence cascade is shaped by CD and its consequences for anisotropies in the space environment.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Impact of Physics Parameterization Ordering in a Global Atmosphere Model

Abstract Because weather and climate models must capture a wide variety of spatial and temporal scales, they rely heavily on parameterizations of subgrid‐scale processes. The goal of this study is to demonstrate that the assumptions used to couple these parameterizations have an important effect on the climate of version 0 of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) General Circulation Model (GCM), a close relative of version 1 of the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). Like most GCMs, parameterizations in E3SM are sequentially split in the sense that parameterizations are called one after another with each subsequent process feeling the effect of the preceding processes. This coupling strategy is noncommutative in the sense that the order in which processes are called impacts the solution. By examining a suite of 24 simulations with deep convection, shallow convection, macrophysics/microphysics, and radiation parameterizations reordered, process order is shown to have a big impact on predicted climate. In particular, reordering of processes induces differences in net climate feedback that are as big as the intermodel spread in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. One reason why process ordering has such a large impact is that the effect of each process is influenced by the processes preceding it. Where output is written is therefore an important control on apparent model behavior. Application of k ‐means clustering demonstrates that the positioning of macro/microphysics and shallow convection plays a critical role on the model solution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Lagrangian large eddy simulations via physics-informed machine learning

High-Reynolds number homogeneous isotropic turbulence (HIT) is fully described within the Navier–Stokes (NS) equations, which are notoriously difficult to solve numerically. Engineers, interested primarily in describing turbulence at a reduced range of resolved scales, have designed heuristics, known as large eddy simulation (LES). LES is described in terms of the temporally evolving Eulerian velocity field defined over a spatial grid with the mean-spacing correspondent to the resolved scale. This classic Eulerian LES depends on assumptions about effects of subgrid scales on the resolved scales. Here, we take an alternative approach and design LES heuristics stated in terms of Lagrangian particles moving with the flow. Our Lagrangian LES, thus L-LES, is described by equations generalizing the weakly compressible smoothed particle hydrodynamics formulation with extended parametric and functional freedom, which is then resolved via Machine Learning training on Lagrangian data from direct numerical simulations of the NS equations. The L-LES model includes physics-informed parameterization and functional form, by combining physics-based parameters and physics-inspired Neural Networks to describe the evolution of turbulence within the resolved range of scales. The subgrid-scale contributions are modeled separately with physical constraints to account for the effects from unresolved scales. We build the resulting model under the differentiable programming framework to facilitate efficient training. We experiment with loss functions of different types, including physics-informed ones accounting for statistics of Lagrangian particles. We show that our L-LES model is capable of reproducing Eulerian and unique Lagrangian turbulence structures and statistics over a range of turbulent Mach numbers.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

PARLO: PArallel Run-Time Layout Optimization for Scientific Data Explorations with Heterogeneous Access Patterns

The size and scope of cutting-edge scientific simulations are growing much faster than the I/O and storage capabilities of their run-time environments. The growing gap is exacerbated by exploratory, data-intensive analytics, such as querying simulation data with multivariate, spatio-temporal constraints, which induces heterogeneous access patterns that stress the performance of the underlying storage system. Previous work addresses data layout and indexing techniques to improve query performance for a single access pattern, which is not sufficient for complex analytics jobs. We present PARLO a parallel run-time layout optimization framework, to achieve multi-level data layout optimization for scientific applications at run-time before data is written to storage. The layout schemes optimize for heterogeneous access patterns with user-specified priorities. PARLO is integrated with ADIOS, a high-performance parallel I/O middleware for large-scale HPC applications, to achieve user-transparent, light-weight layout optimization for scientific datasets. It offers simple XML-based configuration for users to achieve flexible layout optimization without the need to modify or recompile application codes. Experiments show that PARLO improves performance by 2 to 26 times for queries with heterogeneous access patterns compared to state-of-the-art scientific database management systems. Compared to traditional post-processing approaches, its underlying run-time layout optimization achieves a 56% savings in processing time and a reduction in storage overhead of up to 50%. PARLO also exhibits a low run-time resource requirement, while also limiting the performance impact on running applications to a reasonable level.

Computer Science↗

Collaborative Research Activities of the Arase and Van Allen Probes

This paper presents the highlights of joint observations of the inner magnetosphere by the Arase spacecraft, the Van Allen Probes spacecraft, and ground-based experiments integrated into spacecraft programs. The concurrent operation of the two missions in 2017–2019 facilitated the separation of the spatial and temporal structures of dynamic phenomena occurring in the inner magnetosphere. Because the orbital inclination angle of Arase is larger than that of Van Allen Probes, Arase collected observations at higher L-shells up to L ~ 10. After March 2017, similar variations in plasma and waves were detected by Van Allen Probes and Arase. We describe plasma wave observations at longitudinally separated locations in space and geomagnetically-conjugate locations in space and on the ground. The results of instrument intercalibrations between the two missions are also presented. Arase continued its normal operation after the scientific operation of Van Allen Probes completed in October 2019. The combined Van Allen Probes (2012-2019) and Arase (2017-present) observations will cover a full solar cycle. This will be the first comprehensive long-term observation of the inner magnetosphere and radiation belts.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Disentangling multidimensional spatio-temporal data into their common and aberrant responses

With the advent of high-throughput measurement techniques, scientists and engineers are starting to grapple with massive data sets and encountering challenges with how to organize, process and extract information into meaningful structures. Multidimensional spatio-temporal biological data sets such as time series gene expression with various perturbations over different cell lines, or neural spike trains across many experimental trials, have the potential to acquire insight about the dynamic behavior of the system. For this potential to be realized, we need a suitable representation to understand the data. A general question is how to organize the observed data into meaningful structures and how to find an appropriate similarity measure. A natural way of viewing these complex high dimensional data sets is to examine and analyze the large-scale features and then to focus on the interesting details. Since the wide range of experiments and unknown complexity of the underlying system contribute to the heterogeneity of biological data, we develop a new method by proposing an extension of Robust Principal Component Analysis (RPCA), which models common variations across multiple experiments as the lowrank component and anomalies across these experiments as the sparse component. We show that the proposed method is able to find distinct subtypes and classify data sets in a robust way without any prior knowledge by separating these common responses and abnormal responses. Thus, the proposed method provides us a new representation of these data sets which has the potential to help users acquire new insight from data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Quantum Information Science in High Energy Physics at the Large Hadron Collider (Final Report-QuantISED)

We pursue scientific research at the interface of High Energy Physics and Quantum Information Science. This includes studies of thermal radiation and quantum entanglement in high-energy collisions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), with special emphasis on entanglement entropy and the Higgs boson. This project has also been extended to include quantum entanglement and charged current weak interactions using Fermilab results. And most recently, we have begun tests of the temporal entanglement using LHC data. Collider experiments such as proton-proton collisions at the LHC yield hadrons that exhibit an exponential behavior at low transverse momenta. This surprising behavior is seen in data from both the ATLAS and CMS collaborations. We attribute this phenomenon to quantum entanglement between the regions in the nucleon wave function. The exponential component to the transverse momentum distribution is a result of thermal radiation that is akin to Hawking or Unruh radiation that should exist at the event horizon of astrophysical black holes and neutron stars. The Principal Investigator, in collaboration with a theoretical physicist at Stony Brook University and Brookhaven National Laboratory, and with Yale University students, has shown evidence for this thermal radiation in several production and decay processes in the ATLAS and CMS data, and its connection to entanglement entropy (O.K. Baker and D.E Kharzeev, Phys. Rev. D 98, 054007 (2018)), including even the Higgs boson sector. Interestingly, this thermal behavior is also seen in momentum distributions of charged current weak interactions according to our studies. These findings suggest a deep connection between quantum entanglement (entanglement entropy) and thermalization in both hadron collisions at the energy frontier and neutrino scattering at the intensity frontier. We have confirmed the proposed relation between the effective temperature and the hard-scattering scale at lower energies using the most recent LHC data for the following systems: Higgs bosons, top quarks, and charged hadrons. Additionally, we have results for hadron production in neutrino scattering from nuclei using Fermilab weak interaction data. This study is carried out using data from the MINERvA collaboration. In those cases where entanglement is expected, there is an exponential component to the momentum distribution, while this component is absent in those processes where no entanglement is expected. This research thus tests the hypothesis about a link between quantum entanglement and thermalization in strong and weak interactions. See Phys Lett B 811, 135948 (2020). We also initiated research applying a quantum search algorithm (Grover's Algorithm) to LHC data. This quantum algorithm was used to show how rare events in LHC data can be searched for in large, unsorted databases, with quadratic speedup compared to classical search algorithms on classical computers. See "Application of a Quantum Search Algorithm to High- Energy Physics Data at the Large Hadron Collider", arXiv:2010.00649 [quant-ph].

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

CHUWD-H v1.0: a comprehensive historical hourly weather database for U.S. urban energy system modeling

Reliable and continuous meteorological data are crucial for modeling the responses of energy systems and their components to weather and climate conditions, particularly in densely populated urban areas. However, existing long-term datasets often suffer from spatial and temporal gaps and inconsistencies, posing great challenges for detailed urban energy system modeling and cross-city comparison under realistic weather conditions. Here we introduce the Historical Comprehensive Hourly Urban Weather Database (CHUWD-H) v1.0, a 23-year (1998-2020) gap-free and quality-controlled hourly weather dataset covering 550 weather station locations across all urban areas in the contiguous United States. CHUWD-H v1.0 synthesizes hourly weather observations from stations with outputs from a physics-based solar radiation model and a reanalysis dataset through a multi-step gap filling approach. A 10-fold Monte Carlo cross-validation suggests that the accuracy of this gap filling approach surpasses that of conventional gap filling methods. Designed primarily for urban energy system modeling, CHUWD-H v1.0 should also support historical urban meteorological and climate studies, including the validation and evaluation of urban climate modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Integrating Contaminant Source Indicators, Water Quality Measures, and Ecotoxicity to Characterize Contaminant Mixtures and Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substance (PFAS) Variability in an Urban Watershed

Thousands of chemical contaminants threaten watersheds but are time and cost prohibitive to monitor. Identifying their sources, transport, and ecological risk is limited in heterogeneous urban watersheds. We present an integrative watershed approach using source-specific indicator compounds, common water quality measures, and ecotoxicity assays to examine the distribution of contaminant mixtures in an urbanized watershed. Indicator compound concentrations were temporally and spatially distributed for treated/untreated sewage (sucralose, artificial sweetener), road runoff (diphenyl-guanidine [DPG] and 6PPD-quinone [6PPD-Q], automobile tire additives), and lawncare runoff (aminomethanephosphonic acid (AMPA), major degradant of the herbicide glyphosate). Sucralose was predominately sourced from treated wastewater; measurable concentrations in tributaries indicated raw sewage inputs. DPG and 6PPD-Q concentrations correlated to road density during base flow and were elevated during stormflow. AMPA was measurable spring through fall, especially where lawns were dense. When specific sources dominated flow, water quality measures correlated with wastewater (sulfate, potassium, chloride, and sodium) and road runoff (chromium and lead) indicators. The limited behavioral toxicity observed in exposed zebrafish (Danio rerio) (18%) was not well explained by source-indicators. PFAS concentrations were highly variable spatially but not well explained by our source-specific indicator compounds. Here, more costly compound-specific monitoring may be necessary when multiple sources exist or when unexpected toxicity trends occur.

computer simulations↗

Imagery Applications for Advanced Event Analytics (WBS 24.3.1.3.3-IDC FY202 Final Project Report)

Accurate event locations and replicability of location analyses are essential for assessing the nature of an event, its context, ambient site conditions, and proximity to relevant facilities and infrastructure. Additionally, accurate event locations provide valuable information that reduce uncertainties, improve confidence in event analyses, and inform in-field verification activities. However, event location/relocation and replicability are difficult due to a number of factors, including spatially-sparse network coverage in some areas of the globe and variability in seismic data processing. This team proposed that the incorporation of high-fidelity imagery as a data backbone to the analytical assessment of a suspected underground explosion and/or an advanced seismic event bulletin produced by the International Data Centre (IDC) of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO PrepCom) could reduce uncertainties and improve confidence in analyses. Specifically, temporally-separated images can reduce uncertainty by identifying areas where change has occurred (e.g., building construction or demolition, road or facilities improvements). The primary goal of this project was to develop an automated geospatial processing script for imagery change detection to better reflect needs of the technical community (including the IDC) and to make the use of such a tool accessible in a variety of settings across platforms. Technical experts at Los Alamos National Laboratory successfully built GAIA: the Geospatial Automated Imagery Analysis tool, to fill this need. GAIA combines five tool components to produce orthorectified time separated imagery and imagery change detection maps. Our toolkit (1) reduces error by providing a standardized workflow for image analyses and (2) significantly reduces processing time from between 7 and 24+ hours to approximately 5 minutes. Technical experts at Sandia National Laboratories supported GAIA via beta-testing and by introducing a web-based system approach for increased applicability. To test the function, performance, broad application, and ease-of-use of GAIA, we applied it to four separate test cases. The results of this preliminary investigation show promise in reducing uncertainty in seismic event locations: if satellite imagery can show regions where operations that produce seismic activity likely occurred, then pursuing imagery to locate epicenters of seismic nuclear events could reduce the time needed to find the true epicenter location.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Imagery Applications for Advanced Event Analytics (WBS 24.3.1.3.3-IDC FY2020 Final Project Report)

Accurate event locations and replicability of location analyses are essential for assessing the nature of an event, its context, ambient site conditions, and proximity to relevant facilities and infrastructure. Additionally, accurate event locations provide valuable information that reduce uncertainties, improve confidence in event analyses, and inform in-field verification activities. However, event location/relocation and replicability are difficult due to a number of factors, including spatially-sparse network coverage in some areas of the globe and variability in seismic data processing. This team proposed that the incorporation of high-fidelity imagery as a data backbone to the analytical assessment of a suspected underground explosion and/or an advanced seismic event bulletin produced by the International Data Centre (IDC) of the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO PrepCom) could reduce uncertainties and improve confidence in analyses. Specifically, temporally-separated images can reduce uncertainty by identifying areas where change has occurred (e.g., building construction or demolition, road or facilities improvements). The primary goal of this project was to develop an automated geospatial processing script for imagery change detection to better reflect needs of the technical community (including the IDC) and to make the use of such a tool accessible in a variety of settings across platforms. Technical experts at Los Alamos National Laboratory successfully built GAIA: the Geospatial Automated Imagery Analysis tool, to fill this need. GAIA combines five tool components to produce orthorectified time-separated imagery and imagery change detection maps. Our toolkit (1) reduces error by providing a standardized workflow for image analyses and (2) significantly reduces processing time from between 7 and 24+ hours to approximately 5 minutes. Technical experts at Sandia National Laboratories supported GAIA via beta-testing and by introducing a web-based system approach for increased applicability. To test the function, performance, broad application, and ease-of-use of GAIA, we applied it to four separate test cases. The results of this preliminary investigation show promise in reducing uncertainty in seismic event locations: if satellite imagery can show regions where operations that produce seismic activity likely occurred, then pursuing imagery to locate epicenters of seismic nuclear events could reduce the time needed to find the true epicenter location.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Inter-annual variability of net and gross ecosystem carbon fluxes: A review

As the lifetime of regional flux networks approach twenty years, there is a growing number of papers that have published long term records (5 years or more) of net carbon fluxes between ecosystems and the atmosphere. Unanswered questions from this body of work are: 1) how variable are carbon fluxes on a year to year basis?; 2) what are the biophysical factors that may cause interannual variability and/or temporal trends in carbon fluxes?; and 3) how does the biophysical control on this carbon flux variability differ by climate and ecological spaces? To address these questions, we surveyed published data from 59 sites that reported on five or more years of continuous measurements, yielding 544 site-years of data. We found that the standard deviation of the interannual variability in net ecosystem carbon exchange (162 gC m -2 y -1 ) is large relative to its population mean (-200 gC m -2 y -1 ). Broad-leaved evergreen forests and crops experienced the greatest absolute variability in interannual net carbon exchange (greater than ±300 gC m -2 y -1 ) and boreal evergreen forests and maritime wetlands were among the least variable (less than ±40 gC m -2 y -1 ). A disproportionate fraction of the yearly variability in net ecosystem exchange was associated with biophysical factors that modulated ecosystem photosynthesis rather than ecosystem respiration. Yet, there was appreciable and statistically significant covariance between ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration. Consequently, biophysical conditions that conspired to increase ecosystem photosynthesis to from one year to the next were associated with an increase in ecosystem respiration, and vice versa; on average, the year to year change in respiration was 40% as large as the year to year change in photosynthesis. The analysis also identified sets of ecosystems that are on the verge of switching from being carbon sinks to carbon sources. These include sites in the Arctic tundra, the evergreen forests in the Pacific northwest and some grasslands, where year to year changes in respiration are outpacing those in photosynthesis. While a select set of climatic and ecological factors (e.g. light, rainfall, temperature, phenology) played direct and indirect roles on this variability, their impact differed conditionally, as well as by climate and ecological spaces. For example, rainfall had both positive and negative effects. Deficient rainfall caused a physiological decline in photosynthesis in temperate and semi-arid regions. Too much rain, in the humid tropics, limited photosynthesis by limiting light. In peatlands and tundra, excess precipitation limited ecosystem respiration when it raised the water table to the surface. For deciduous forests, warmer temperatures lengthened the growing season, increasing photosynthesis, but this effect also increased soil respiration. Finally, statistical analysis was performed to evaluate the detection limit of trends; we computed the confidence intervals of trends in multi-year carbon fluxes that need to be resolved to conclude whether the differences are to be attributed to randomness or biophysical forcings. Ongoing studies and reports on interannual variations need to consider the role of the duration of the time series on random errors when quantifying potential trends and extreme events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Development of Digital Twin Predictive Model for PWR Components: Updates on Multi Times Series Temperature Prediction Using Recurrent Neural Network, DMW Fatigue Tests, System Level Thermal-Mechanical-Stress Analysis

The long-term operation (LTO) of nuclear power plant (NPP) beyond their original design life of 40 years, can lead to more material damage associated with cyclic fatigue under thermal-mechanical loading cycles and associated long-term exposure of reactor material to the deleterious reactor-coolant environments. However, under this LTO condition the reactor components can still safely operate but may require more frequent Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) of reactor components. Frequent NDE requirement may lead to frequent shutdown of the NPP. This in turn can lead to power outage and additional NDE-inspection-cost related economic loss. The economic loss can be minimized by reducing uncertainty in life estimation of safety-critical pressure boundary components and by implementing more digital approach such as by using upcoming digital-twin (DT) technology for predicting the structural states (e.g., time and location dependent inside/outside thickness temperature, stress, strain, plastic deformation, etc.) and associated fatigue life of a component in real time. Towards this goal Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) with the sponsorship of DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program is working on the development of a DT framework that can be used for real time environmental fatigue prediction of reactor components. The DT framework is based on limited experiment-data, Artificial-intelligence (AI) – Machine-Learning (ML) - Deep-Learning (DL) based techniques and Multiphysics-computational-mechanics such as finite element (FE) based modeling tools. Towards this overall goal, following are some of the major contributions made during the FY21: 1) Multiple 82/182 dissimilar metal weld (DMW) specimens (both solid-weld and joint-weld representing the actual reactor multi-metal nozzles) were fatigue tested. The resulting fatigue lives were compared to the NUREG-6909 based best-fit and design fatigue curves. Additionally, the results of 52/152 DMW fatigue specimens (which were recently tested at Republic of Korea under the sponsorship of International Nuclear Energy Research Initiative - INERI program) were compared to the NUREG-6909 based best-fit and design fatigue curves. From the comparison of 82/182 and 52/152 DMW test data with NUREG-6909 best-fit curve, most of the reported test data fall way away from the NUREG-6909 suggested best-fit or mean curve. The NUREG-6909 suggested best-fit curve is the best-fit curve of austenitic stainless steel and due to lack of enough data on Nickel-based welds, this is currently being used for predicting the life of Nickel-alloy-based welded components. However, the above observation may require higher scaling factor (e.g., ASME suggested factor of 20 on cycles rather than the current NUREG-6909 suggested factor of 12 on cycles) for scaling the austenitic-stainless-steel best-fit-curve for estimating the design or safe-life of a welded component. Accordingly, for example, if a DMW component experience a strain amplitude of 0.6% the PWR-water life of the component would be 52 cycles instead of 85 cycles. However, more DMW tests are required to further ascertain the above-mentioned observations. 2) A system level CAD and finite element model were developed which consists of reactor pressure vessel (RPV), part of steam generator (SG), part of pressurizer (PRZ), hot leg (HL), and surge line (SL). This is with detailed nozzle geometry and thermal-mechanical material properties of different metals to simulate realistic thermal-mechanical stress under connected system global thermal-mechanical boundary conditions. 3) Different system level heat transfer analyses were performed with estimation of relevant heat transfer coefficients. The resulting data were used in subsequent system level thermal-mechanical stress analysis and for generating spatial-temporal training and validation data for a system level digital-twin based temperature predictor. Transient heat transfer analyses were performed considering thermal boundary condition under design-basis (DB) loading and EDF (Électricité de France) data-based grid-load-following (EDF-GLF) loading cycles. 4) System level thermal-mechanical stress analysis was performed for identifying damage-prone hotspots and for future extension of the model for cyclic state prediction. From the system-level model simulation under DB loading cycle it is found that HL and the SL nozzle that connect to the HL can experience significant stress and strain and could be one of the weakest links in the overall reactor coolant system (RCS). 5) An AI/ML based DT model was developed for multi-time-series temperature prediction at any inside/outside thickness locations of PWR pressure boundary components. This is by using Recurrent-neural-network (RNN) and keras machine learning libraries. The RNN model was validated against two laboratory test-based data sets with one obtained through ANL’s in-air fatigue test system and other through PWR-water test loop. The experimentally validated DT model further validated against FE model results to predict thermal scarification related spatialtemporal temperatures at random locations of a component. The well validated DT model was then used for demonstrating spatial-temporal temperature prediction under 100+ years of reactor operation subjected to combined DB, EDF-GLF and randomized grid-load-following (RANDOMGLF) loading Cycles. The expert-elicitation DT model framework was developed assuming field/input/process measurements can be available from a few existing plant sensors and can readily be used by the NPP operators. The above temperature prediction model will feed to the next-step stress analysis model based on which the life of a component can be predicted in realtime, which is one of our future works.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

SU-F-R-25: Automatic Identification of Suspicious Recurrent/residual Disease Regions After Prostatectomy

Purpose: To automatically identify and outline suspicious regions of recurrent or residual disease in the prostate bed using Dynamic Contrast Enhanced-MRI (DCE-MRI) in patients after prostatectomy. Methods: Twenty-two patients presenting for salvage radiotherapy and with identified Gross Tumor Volume (GTV) in the prostate bed were retrospectively analyzed. The MRI data consisted of Axial T2weighted-MRI (T2w) of the pelvis: resolution 1.25×1.25×2.5 mm; Field of View (FOV): 320×320 mm; slice thickness=2.5mm; 72 slices; and Dynamic Contrast Enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI)–12 series of T1w with identical spatial resolution to T2w and at 30–34s temporal resolution. Unsupervised pattern recognition was used to decompose the 4D DCE data as the product W.H of weights W of k patterns H. A well-perfused pattern Hwp was identified and the weight map Wwp associated to Hwp was used to delineate suspicious volumes. Threshold of Wwp set at mean(Wwp)+S*std(Wwp), S=1,1.5,2 and 2.5 defined four volumes labeled as DCE1.0 to DCE2.5. These volumes were displayed on T2w and, along with GTV, were correlated with the highest pre-treatment PSA values, and with pharmacokinetic analysis constants. Results: GTV was significantly correlated with DCE2.0(ρ= 0.60, p<0.003), and DCE 2.5 (ρ=0.58, p=0.004)). Significant correlation was found between highest pre-treatment PSA and GTV(ρ=0.42, p<0.049), DCE2.0(ρ= 0.52, p<0.012), and DCE 2.5 (ρ=0.67, p<<0.01)). Kruskal-Wallis analysis showed that Ktrans median value was statistically different between non-specific prostate bed tissue NSPBT and both GTV (p<<0.001) and DCE2.5 (p<<0.001), but while median Ve was statistically different between DCE2.5 and NSPBT (p=0.002), it was not statistically different between GTV and NSPBT (p=0.054), suggesting that automatic volumes capture more accurately the area of malignancy. Conclusion: Software developed for identification and visualization of suspicions regions in DCE-MRI from post-prostatectomy patients has been validated by PSA and pharmacokinetic constants analysis showing that it generates clinically relevant volumes.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Direct numerical simulation of supercritical oxy-methane mixing layers with CO 2 substituted counterparts

Direct numerical simulations (DNS) of temporally developing, three dimensional, CH 4 /CO 2 , CH 4 /O 2 and CO 2 /O 2 mixing layers, are conducted at a supercritical pressure of 300 atm. To effectively model the supercritical regime, the employed formulation includes the compressible form of the governing equations, the cubic Peng-Robinson equation of state and a generalized formulation for heat and mass flux vectors derived from non-equilibrium thermodynamics and fluctuation theory. A linear inviscid stability analysis is also performed for each case, to determine its most unstable wavelength. Flow visualizations reveal the presence of high density gradient magnitude regions for all three mixing layers, with conditional averages indicating increased presence of heavier fluid species within these regions. No significant departures are observed from perfect gas behavior, with compressibility factors very close to unity for all three mixing cases. Applicability of presumed probability density function methods (PDF) is examined for the three supercritical mixing layers. An a priori analysis is also conducted to investigate various simplifying assumptions employed in modeling various subgrid scale (SGS) flux models. Two additional terms are identified in the large eddy simulations (LES) equations, the gradient of SGS contribution of pressure in the momentum equation and the gradient of SGS contribution of heat flux in energy equation, whose magnitudes are similar and comparable with their respective resolved terms. The performance of the scale similarity model to represent these additional terms is investigated. Lastly, the performance of Smagorinsky, gradient and scale similarity models are also investigated.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

LIGHT-bgcArgo-1.0: using synthetic float capabilities in E3SMv2 to assess spatiotemporal variability in ocean physics and biogeochemistry

Since their advent over 2 decades ago, autonomous Argo floats have revolutionized the field of oceanography, and, more recently, the addition of biogeochemical and biological sensors to these floats has greatly improved our understanding of carbon, nutrient, and oxygen cycling in the ocean. While Argo floats offer unprecedented horizontal, vertical, and temporal coverage of the global ocean, uncertainties remain about whether Argo sampling frequency and density capture the true spatiotemporal variability in physical, biogeochemical, and biological properties. As the true distributions of, e.g., temperature or oxygen are unknown, these uncertainties remain difficult to address with Argo floats alone. Numerical models with synthetic observing systems offer one potential avenue to address these uncertainties. Here, we implement synthetic biogeochemical Argo floats into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2), which build on the Lagrangian In Situ Global High-Performance Particle Tracking (LIGHT) module in E3SMv2 (E3SMv2-LIGHT-bgcArgo-1.0). Since the synthetic floats sample the model fields at model run time, the end user defines the sampling protocol ahead of any model simulation, including the number and distribution of synthetic floats to be deployed, their sampling frequency, and the prognostic or diagnostic model fields to be sampled. Using a 6-year proof-of-concept simulation, we illustrate the utility of the synthetic floats in different case studies. In particular, we quantify the impact of (i) sampling density on the float-derived detection of deep-ocean change in temperature or oxygen and on float-derived estimates of phytoplankton phenology, (ii) sampling frequency and sea-ice cover on float trajectory lengths and hence float-derived estimates of current velocities, and (iii) short-term variability in ecosystem stressors on estimates of their seasonal variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Understanding Growth Dynamics and Yield Prediction of Sorghum Using High Temporal Resolution UAV Imagery Time Series and Machine Learning

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) carrying multispectral cameras are increasingly being used for high-throughput phenotyping (HTP) of above-ground traits of crops to study genetic diversity, resource use efficiency and responses to abiotic or biotic stresses. There is significant unexplored potential for repeated data collection through a field season to reveal information on the rates of growth and provide predictions of the final yield. Generating such information early in the season would create opportunities for more efficient in-depth phenotyping and germplasm selection. This study tested the use of high-resolution time-series imagery (5 or 10 sampling dates) to understand the relationships between growth dynamics, temporal resolution and end-of-season above-ground biomass (AGB) in 869 diverse accessions of highly productive (mean AGB = 23.4 Mg/Ha), photoperiod sensitive sorghum. Canopy surface height (CSM), ground cover (GC), and five common spectral indices were considered as features of the crop phenotype. Spline curve fitting was used to integrate data from single flights into continuous time courses. Random Forest was used to predict end-of-season AGB from aerial imagery, and to identify the most informative variables driving predictions. Improved prediction of end-of-season AGB (RMSE reduction of 0.24 Mg/Ha) was achieved earlier in the growing season (10 to 20 days) by leveraging early- and mid-season measurement of the rate of change of geometric and spectral features. Early in the season, dynamic traits describing the rates of change of CSM and GC predicted end-of-season AGB best. Late in the season, CSM on a given date was the most influential predictor of end-of-season AGB. The power to predict end-of-season AGB was greatest at 50 days after planting, accounting for 63% of variance across this very diverse germplasm collection with modest error (RMSE 1.8 Mg/ha). End-of-season AGB could be predicted equally well when spline fitting was performed on data collected from five flights versus 10 flights over the growing season. This demonstrates a more valuable and efficient approach to using UAVs for HTP, while also proposing strategies to add further value.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗