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At least 1,765 records · Page 98

A cloud classification scheme applied to the breakup region of marine stratocumulus

A major goal of the marine stratocumulus (MSc) segment of FIRE is to describe and explain the temporal and spatial variability in fractional cloud cover. The challenge from a theoretical standpoint is to correctly represent the mechanisms leading to the transitions between solid stratus, stratocumulus and trade wind cumulus. The development and testing of models accounting for fractional cloudiness require an observational data base that will come primarily from satellites. This, of course, is one of the missions of the ISCCP. There are a number of satellite cloud analysis programs that are being undertaken as part of FIRE. One that has already produced data from the FIRE MSc experiment is the spatial coherence method (COAKLEY and Baldwin, 1984). This method produces information on fractional cloud coverage and cloud heights. It may be possible, however, to extract more information on cloud structure from satellite data that might be of use in describing the transitions in the marine stratocumulus cloud deck. Potential applications are explored of a cloud analysis scheme relying on more detailed analysis of visible and infrared cloud radiance statistics. For this preliminary study, data is examined from three days during the 1987 FIRE MSc field work. These case studies provide a basis for comparison and evaluation of the technique.

Khalsa, Siri Jodha Singh↗

Rainfall estimation over oceans from scanning multichannel microwave radiometer and special sensor microwave/imager microwave data

The brightness temperature (T sub b) measured at 37 GHz shows fairly strong emission from rain, and only slight effects caused by scattering by ice above the rain clouds. At frequencies below 37 GHz, were the fov is larger and the volume extinction coefficient is weaker, it is found that the observations do not yield appreciable additional information about rain. At 85 GHz (fov = 15 km), where the volume extinction is considerably larger, direct information about rain below the clouds is usually masked. Based on the above ideas, 37 GHz observations with a 30 km fov from SMMR and SSM/I are selected to develop an empirical method for the estimation of rain rate. In this method, the statistics of the observed T sub b's at 37 GHz in a rain storm are related to the rain rate statistics in that storm. The underestimation of rain rate, arising from the inability of the radiometer to respond sensitively to rain rate above a given threshold, is rectified in this technique with the aid of two parameters that depend on the total water vapor content in the atmosphere. The retrieved rain rates compare favorably with radar observations and monthly mean global maps of rain derived from this technique over the oceans.

Prabhakara, C.↗

Gamma ray burst astrometry 2: Numerical tests

Since the announcement of the discovery of sources of gamma ray radiation in 1973, many more reports of such bursts have been published. Numerous artificial satellites have been equipped with gamma ray detectors including GRO. Unfortunately, almost no progress has been made in identifying the sources of this high energy radiation. Only one visible counterpart is known. It is suspected that this is a consequence of the methods currently used to define gamma ray burst source 'error boxes'. An alternative procedure was proposed in 1988 by Taff. Herein, Monte Carlo simulations are reported of the efficacy of this technique using realistic burst timing uncertainties and satellite location errors as well as a variety of satellite constellations. Since these are controlled numerical experiments, the dependence is examined of the statistics of the errors in the deduced burst wavefront normal as a function of the timing inconsistencies, detector location standard deviations, and especially the number and distribution of the detectors. The results clearly show that an arc minute prediction of a unique burst location is routinely obtainable once there are at least two interplanetary detectors.

Taff, L. G.↗

Rainfall estimation over oceans from SMMR and SSM/I microwave data

The brightness temperature (T sub b) measured at 37 GHz shows fairly strong emission from rain, and only slight effects caused by scattering by ice above the rain clouds. At frequencies below 37 GHz, where the FOV is larger and the volume extinction coefficient is weaker, it is found that the observations do not yield appreciable additional information about rain. At 85 GHz (FOV = 15 km), where the volume extinction is considerably larger, direct information about rain below the clouds is usually masked. Based on the above idea, 37 GHz observations with a 30 km FOV from SMMR and SSM/I are selected to develop an empirical method for the estimation of rain rate. In this method, the statistics of the observed T sub b's at 37 GHz in a rain storm are related to the rain rate statistics in that storm. The underestimation of rain rate, arising from the inability of the radiometer to respond sensitively to rain rate above a given threshold is rectified in this technique with the aid of two parameters that depend on the total water vapor content in the atmosphere. The retrieved rain rates compare favorably with radar observations and monthly mean global maps of rain derived from this technique over the oceans.

Prabhakara, C.↗

Generic results of the space physics community survey

This report summarizes the results of a survey of the members of the space physics research community conducted in 1990-1991 to ascertain demographic information on the respondents and information on their views on a number of facets of their space physics research. The survey was conducted by questionnaire and the information received was compiled in a database and analyzed statistically. The statistical results are presented for the respondent population as a whole and by four different respondent cross sections: individual disciplines of space physics, type of employers, age groups, and research techniques employed. Data from a brief corresponding survey of the graduate students of respondents are also included.

Sharma, Rikhi R.↗

Statistical design study of lunar ceramic

Fabrication of a lunar ceramic was conducted according to a statistically designed experiment. The method of cold pressing was used since the consumption of electrical energy is kept to a minimum (a priority in the lunar environment). This traditional fabrication technique also provides an initial data source on which further investigations can be based. Results obtained from using two percent binder, a cold pressing pressure of 276 MPa, and 24 hours sintering time yielded the greatest compressive strength of 247 MPa. Analysis of each variable's influence on the compressive strength is also presented.

Effinger, Mike↗

Test/score/report: Simulation techniques for automating the test process

A Test/Score/Report capability is currently being developed for the Transportable Payload Operations Control Center (TPOCC) Advanced Spacecraft Simulator (TASS) system which will automate testing of the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Payload Operations Control Center (POCC) and Mission Operations Center (MOC) software in three areas: telemetry decommutation, spacecraft command processing, and spacecraft memory load and dump processing. Automated computer control of the acceptance test process is one of the primary goals of a test team. With the proper simulation tools and user interface, the task of acceptance testing, regression testing, and repeatability of specific test procedures of a ground data system can be a simpler task. Ideally, the goal for complete automation would be to plug the operational deliverable into the simulator, press the start button, execute the test procedure, accumulate and analyze the data, score the results, and report the results to the test team along with a go/no recommendation to the test team. In practice, this may not be possible because of inadequate test tools, pressures of schedules, limited resources, etc. Most tests are accomplished using a certain degree of automation and test procedures that are labor intensive. This paper discusses some simulation techniques that can improve the automation of the test process. The TASS system tests the POCC/MOC software and provides a score based on the test results. The TASS system displays statistics on the success of the POCC/MOC system processing in each of the three areas as well as event messages pertaining to the Test/Score/Report processing. The TASS system also provides formatted reports documenting each step performed during the tests and the results of each step. A prototype of the Test/Score/Report capability is available and currently being used to test some POCC/MOC software deliveries. When this capability is fully operational it should greatly reduce the time necessary to test a POCC/MOC software delivery, as well as improve the quality of the test process.

Hageman, Barbara H.↗

Comparative Optical Measurements of Airspeed and Aerosols on a DC-8 Aircraft

NASA Dryden supported a cooperative flight test program on the NASA DC-8 aircraft in November 1993. This program evaluated optical airspeed and aerosol measurement techniques. Three brassboard optical systems were tested. Two were laser Doppler systems designed to measure free-stream-referenced airspeed. The third system was designed to characterize the natural aerosol statistics and airspeed. These systems relied on optical backscatter from natural aerosols for operation. The DC-8 aircraft carried instrumentation that provided real-time flight situation information and reference data on the aerosol environment. This test is believed to be the first to include multiple optical airspeed systems on the same carrier aircraft, so performance could be directly compared. During 23 hr of flight, a broad range of atmospheric conditions was encountered, including aerosol-rich layers, visible clouds, and unusually clean (aerosol-poor) regions. Substantial amounts of data were obtained. Important insights regarding the use of laser-based systems of this type in an aircraft environment were gained. This paper describes the sensors used and flight operations conducted to support the experiments. The paper also briefly describes the general results of the experiments.

Bogue, Rodney↗

Software for Data Analysis with Graphical Models

Probabilistic graphical models are being used widely in artificial intelligence and statistics, for instance, in diagnosis and expert systems, as a framework for representing and reasoning with probabilities and independencies. They come with corresponding algorithms for performing statistical inference. This offers a unifying framework for prototyping and/or generating data analysis algorithms from graphical specifications. This paper illustrates the framework with an example and then presents some basic techniques for the task: problem decomposition and the calculation of exact Bayes factors. Other tools already developed, such as automatic differentiation, Gibbs sampling, and use of the EM algorithm, make this a broad basis for the generation of data analysis software.

Buntine, Wray L.↗

Return Echoes from Medium-Large Footprint Laser Altimeters

For just over 10 years, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center has been at the forefront of developing return echo laser altimeters and analysis techniques for a variety of both space and airborne applications. In 1991, the Laser Remote Sensing Branch began investigating the use of medium-large diameter footprint return waveforms for measuring vegetation height and structure and sub-canopy topography. Over the last 8 years, using a variety of profiling and scanning laser altimeters (i.e. ATLAS, SLICER, SLA, and LVIS), we have collected return waveforms over a variety of terrestrial surface types. We describe the effects of instrument characteristics and within-footprint surface structure on the shape of the return waveform and suggest several techniques for extracting this information. Specifically for vegetation returns, we describe the effects of canopy parameters such as architecture and closure on the shape of the return waveform. Density profiles, statistics, and examples from a variety of vegetation types will be presented, as well as comparisons with small-footprint laser altimeter data.

Blair, J. Bryan↗

The Precipitation Rate Retrieval Algorithms for the GPM Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar

In this paper, precipitation rate retrieval algorithms for the Global Precipitation Measurement mission's Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) are developed. The DPR consists of a Ku-band radar (KuPR; 13.6 GHz) and a Ka-band radar (KaPR; 35.5 GHz). For the KuPR, an algorithm similar to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission's Precipitation Radar algorithm is developed, with the relation between precipitation rate R and massweighted mean diameter D m (R−D m relation) replacing the relation between the specific attenuation k and effective radar reflectivity factor Z e . The R−D m relation can also be applied to the KaPR and dual-frequency algorithms. In both the single-frequency and dual-frequency algorithms, the forward retrieval method is applied with an assumed adjustment factor for the R−D m relation (ε) and the results are evaluated to select the best value of ε. The advantages of the dual-frequency algorithm are the availability of the dual-frequency surface reference technique and the ZfKa method, which is a method to use the attenuation-corrected radar reflectivity factor Z f of KaPR, to select ε as well as the possibility to selectively use measurements from KuPR or KaPR. This paper also describes the derivation of the scattering table and the R−D m relation as well as the procedure for non-uniform beam filling correction in detail. The outputs are then statistically analyzed to demonstrate algorithm performance.

precipitation radar↗

Statistical analysis and degradation pathway modeling of photovoltaic minimodules with varied packaging strategies

Degradation pathway models constructed using network structural equation modeling (netSEM) are used to study degradation modes and pathways active in photovoltaic (PV) system variants in exposure conditions of high humidity and temperature. This data-driven modeling technique enables the exploration of simultaneous pairwise and multiple regression relationships between variables in which several degradation modes are active in specific variants and exposure conditions. Durable and degrading variants are identified from the netSEM degradation mechanisms and pathways, along with potential ways to mitigate these pathways. A combination of domain knowledge and netSEM modeling shows that corrosion is the primary cause of the power loss in these glass/backsheet PV minimodules. We show successful implementation of netSEM to elucidate the relationships between variables in PV systems and predict a specific service lifetime. The results from pairwise relationships and multiple regression show consistency. This work presents a greater opportunity to be expanded to other materials systems.

electrical measurements↗

An Empirical State Error Covariance Matrix for Batch State Estimation

State estimation techniques serve effectively to provide mean state estimates. However, the state error covariance matrices provided as part of these techniques suffer from some degree of lack of confidence in their ability to adequately describe the uncertainty in the estimated states. A specific problem with the traditional form of state error covariance matrices is that they represent only a mapping of the assumed observation error characteristics into the state space. Any errors that arise from other sources (environment modeling, precision, etc.) are not directly represented in a traditional, theoretical state error covariance matrix. Consider that an actual observation contains only measurement error and that an estimated observation contains all other errors, known and unknown. It then follows that a measurement residual (the difference between expected and observed measurements) contains all errors for that measurement. Therefore, a direct and appropriate inclusion of the actual measurement residuals in the state error covariance matrix will result in an empirical state error covariance matrix. This empirical state error covariance matrix will fully account for the error in the state estimate. By way of a literal reinterpretation of the equations involved in the weighted least squares estimation algorithm, it is possible to arrive at an appropriate, and formally correct, empirical state error covariance matrix. The first specific step of the method is to use the average form of the weighted measurement residual variance performance index rather than its usual total weighted residual form. Next it is helpful to interpret the solution to the normal equations as the average of a collection of sample vectors drawn from a hypothetical parent population. From here, using a standard statistical analysis approach, it directly follows as to how to determine the standard empirical state error covariance matrix. This matrix will contain the total uncertainty in the state estimate, regardless as to the source of the uncertainty. Also, in its most straight forward form, the technique only requires supplemental calculations to be added to existing batch algorithms. The generation of this direct, empirical form of the state error covariance matrix is independent of the dimensionality of the observations. Mixed degrees of freedom for an observation set are allowed. As is the case with any simple, empirical sample variance problems, the presented approach offers an opportunity (at least in the case of weighted least squares) to investigate confidence interval estimates for the error covariance matrix elements. The diagonal or variance terms of the error covariance matrix have a particularly simple form to associate with either a multiple degree of freedom chi-square distribution (more approximate) or with a gamma distribution (less approximate). The off diagonal or covariance terms of the matrix are less clear in their statistical behavior. However, the off diagonal covariance matrix elements still lend themselves to standard confidence interval error analysis. The distributional forms associated with the off diagonal terms are more varied and, perhaps, more approximate than those associated with the diagonal terms. Using a simple weighted least squares sample problem, results obtained through use of the proposed technique are presented. The example consists of a simple, two observer, triangulation problem with range only measurements. Variations of this problem reflect an ideal case (perfect knowledge of the range errors) and a mismodeled case (incorrect knowledge of the range errors).

Frisbee, Joseph H., Jr.↗

Evaluation of large area crop estimation techniques using LANDSAT and ground-derived data

The results of the Domestic Crops and Land Cover Classification and Clustering study on large area crop estimation using LANDSAT and ground truth data are reported. The current crop area estimation approach of the Economics and Statistics Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture was evaluated in terms of the factors that are likely to influence the bias and variance of the estimator. Also, alternative procedures involving replacements for the clustering algorithm, the classifier, or the regression model used in the original U.S. Department of Agriculture procedures were investigated.

Amis, M. L.↗

Statistical Complexity of Quantum Learning

Abstract Learning problems involve settings in which an algorithm has to make decisions based on data, and possibly side information such as expert knowledge. This study has two main goals. First, it reviews and generalizes different results on the data and model complexity of quantum learning, where the data and/or the algorithm can be quantum, focusing on information‐theoretic techniques. Second, it introduces the notion of copy complexity, which quantifies the number of copies of a quantum state required to achieve a target accuracy level. Copy complexity arises from the destructive nature of quantum measurements, which irreversibly alter the state to be processed, limiting the information that can be extracted about quantum data. As a result, empirical risk minimization is generally inapplicable. The paper presents novel results on the copy complexity for both training and testing. To make the paper self‐contained and approachable by different research communities, an extensive background material is provided on classical results from statistical learning theory, as well as on the distinguishability of quantum states. Throughout, the differences between quantum and classical learning are highlighted by addressing both supervised and unsupervised learning, and extensive pointers are provided to the literature.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Supercooled Liquid Water Detection Capabilities from Ka-Band Doppler Profiling Radars: Moment-Based Algorithm Formulation and Assessment

The occurrence of supercooled liquid water in mixed-phase cloud (MPC) affects their cloud microphysical and radiative properties. The prevalence of MPCs in the mid- and high latitudes translates these effects to significant contributions to Earth’s radiative balance and hydrological cycle. The current study develops and assesses a radar-only, moment-based phase partition technique for the demarcation of supercooled liquid water volumes in arctic, MPC conditions. The study utilizes observations from the Ka band profiling radar, the collocated high spectral resolution lidar, and ambient temperature profiles from radio sounding deployments following a statistical analysis of 5.5 years of data (January 2014–May 2019) from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement observatory at the North Slope of Alaska. The ice/liquid phase partition occurs via a per-pixel, neighborhood-dependent algorithm based on the premise that the partitioning can be deduced by examining the mean values of locally sampled probability distributions of radar-based observables and then compare those against the means of climatologically derived, per-phase probability distributions. Analyzed radar observables include linear depolarization ratio (LDR), spectral width, and vertical gradients of reflectivity factor and radial velocity corrected for vertical air motion. Results highlight that the optimal supercooled liquid water detection skill levels are realized for the radar variable combination of spectral width and reflectivity vertical gradient, suggesting that radar-based polarimetry, in the absence of full LDR spectra, is not as critical as Doppler capabilities. The cloud phase masking technique is proven particularly reliable when applied to cloud tops with an Equitable Threat Score (ETS) of 65%; the detection of embedded supercooled layers remains much more uncertain (ETS = 27%).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Machine learning to discover mineral trapping signatures due to CO 2 injection

Mineral trapping is pursued as a geological CO 2 sequestration (GCS) mechanism because it permanently stores CO 2 in solid phases or minerals. However, CO 2 mineral-trapping mechanisms are poorly understood due to (1) lack of sufficient field and laboratory data characterizing these complex processes, and (2) challenges to develop site-specific reactive-transport models coupling fluid flow and geochemical reactions occurring at various temporal (from milliseconds to years) and spatial (from pore (millimeters) to field (kilometers)) scales. Reactive transport with additional complexities such as heterogeneity can make the simulation outputs even more difficult to interpret because of complex nonlinearity and multi-scale interdependencies. Furthermore, the values of model outputs such as concentrations can vary by several orders of magnitude, making it harder to correlate and characterize the impact of the variables via traditional data interpretation techniques such as exploratory data analyses. Recently, machine learning (ML) has shown promise in feature discovery and in highlighting hidden mechanisms that cannot be obtained by existing data-analytics and statistical methods. In this study, we applied an unsupervised ML approach, non-negative matrix factorization with custom -means clustering (NMF) to the data generated by reactive-transport simulations of GCS. The reactive-transport data consisted of 19 attributes, including four physio-chemical variables (pH, porosity, aqueous CO 2 , and sequestered CO 2 ), six chemical species (K + , Na + , HCO, Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , Fe 2+ ), and four carbonate minerals (calcite, dolomite, siderite, and ankerite), a feldspar mineral (albite), and four clay minerals (illite, clinochlore, kaolinite, and smectite) over a period of 200 years of simulation time. Furthermore, the simulation data used was for Morrow B sandstone at the Farnsworth hydrocarbon unit in Texas. Data are sampled at two locations within the model domain: (1) at the injection well and (2) 200 m west of the injection well. The injection was performed for a period of 10 years. Using NMF, we estimated the temporal interdependencies among the 19 attributes over a span of 200 years. We found that NMF was able to identify four reaction stages and their dominant attributes; these cannot be directly discerned through traditional visualization (e.g., line plots, Pareto analysis, Glyph-based visualization methods) or exploratory data analysis tools of the simulation data. The four stages were: reactions in the injection phase followed by short-, mid-, and long-term reactions. The NMF analysis also revealed that 10 among the 19 attributes are dominant. These dominant attributes for mineral trapping include calcite, dolomite at injection well, siderite at 200 m away from the injection well, clinochlore, kaolinite, Na + , K + , Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , pH, and aqeuous CO 2 . Finally, at late times (65–200 years), our results showed that calcite plays a major role in mineral trapping with insignificant contribution from siderite, ankerite, and clay minerals. These findings make the proposed unsupervised ML-model attractive for reactive-transport sensing towards real-time GCS monitoring.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Calibration plan for the SBC 10-kg liquid argon detector with 100 eV target threshold

The Scintillating Bubble Chamber (SBC) Collaboration is designing a new generation of low background, noble liquid bubble chamber experiments with sub-keV nuclear recoil threshold. These experiments combine the electronic recoil blindness of a bubble chamber with the energy resolution of noble liquid scintillation, and maintain electron recoil discrimination at higher degrees of superheat (lower nuclear recoil thresholds) than Freon-based bubble chambers. A 10-kg liquid argon bubble chamber has the potential to set world leading limits on the dark matter nucleon cross-section for 𝒪(GeV/c 2 ) masses, and to perform a high statistics coherent elastic neutrino nuclear scattering measurement with reactor neutrinos. This work presents a detailed calibration plan to measure the detector response of these experiments, combining photoneutron scattering with two new techniques to induce sub-keV nuclear recoils: nuclear Thomson scattering and thermal neutron capture.

Dark Matter detectors (WIMPs, axions, etc.)↗