Results for “probabilistic” — Page 98

DOE OSTI2022

Ultra-Short-Term Spatiotemporal Forecasting of Renewable Resources: An Attention Temporal Convolutional Network Based Approach

The rapid increase in the penetration of renewable energy resources characterized by high variability and uncertainty is bringing new challenges to the power system operation. To ensure the efficient and reliable operation of electric grid, an accurate and general short-term forecasting algorithm with interpretability is desired. Moreover, the extensive off-site information provided by the proliferation of new renewable plants stimulates the interests in the spatiotemporal forecasting. In this paper, an attention temporal convolutional network, which is built on stacked dilated causal convolutional networks and attention mechanisms, is proposed to perform the ultra-short-term spatiotemporal forecasting of renewable resources. Compared with the existing spatiotemporal forecasting methods, the presented model needs no domain knowledge and can be applied to different forecasting tasks such as solar generation and wind speed forecasting. Here, the attention mechanism improves the interpretability. The algorithm can be used to produce both point and probabilistic forecasts. Numerical results on the data sets from National Renewable Energy Laboratory show superior performance over five baselines, in terms of skill scores. Compared with the baselines, the average improvements of accuracy introduced by the proposed method for the point and probabilistic forecasting are 15.08% and 15.85%, respectively.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2013

Tectonic risk forecasting through expert elicitation for geological repositories: the TOPAZ project

This paper describes the development of a probabilistic methodology for the evaluation of tectonic hazards to geological repositories in Japan. The approach is a development of NUMO's ITM methodology, which produced probabilistic hazard maps for volcanism and rock deformation for periods up to about 100,000 years in a set of Case Studies that covered a large area of the country. To address potential regulatory requirements, the TOPAZ project has extended the ITM methodology to look into the period between 100,000 and 1 million years, where significant uncertainties begin to emerge about the tectonic framework within which quantitative forecasting can be made. Part of this methodology extension has been to adopt expert elicitation techniques to capture differing expert views as a means of addressing such uncertainties. This paper briefly outlines progress in this development work to date. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2011

An approach to assessing stochastic radiogenic risk in medical imaging

Purpose: This letter suggests a formalism, the medical effective dose (MED), that is suitable for assessing stochastic radiogenic risks in diagnostic medical procedures. Methods: The MED is derived from radiobiological and probabilistic first principals, including: (1) The independence of radiation-induced biological effects in neighboring voxels at low doses; (2) the linear no-threshold assumption for stochastic radiation injury (although other dose-response relationships could be incorporated, instead); (3) the best human radiation dose-response data currently available; and (4) the built-in possibility that the carcinogenic risk to an irradiated organ may depend on its volume. The MED involves a dose-risk summation over irradiated voxels at high spatial resolution; it reduces to the traditional effective dose when every organ is irradiated uniformly and when the dependence of risk on organ volumes is ignored. Standard relative-risk tissue weighting factors can be used with the MED approach until more refined data become available. Results: The MED is intended for clinical and phantom dosimetry, and it provides an estimate of overall relative radiogenic stochastic risk for any given dose distribution. A result of the MED derivation is that the stochastic risk may increase with the volume of tissue (i.e., the number of cells) irradiated, a feature that can be activated when forthcoming radiobiological research warrants it. In this regard, the MED resembles neither the standard effective dose (E) nor the CT dose index (CTDI), but it is somewhat like the CT dose-length product (DLP). Conclusions: The MED is a novel, probabilistically and biologically based means of estimating stochastic-risk-weighted doses associated with medical imaging. Built in, ab initio, is the ability to link radiogenic risk to organ volume and other clinical factors. It is straightforward to implement when medical dose distributions are available, provided that one is content, for the time being, to accept the relative tissue weighting factors published by the International Commission of Radiological Protection (ICRP). It requires no new radiobiological data and avoids major problems encountered by the E, CTDI, and CT-E formalisms. It makes possible relative inter-patient dosimetry, and also realistic intercomparisons of stochastic risks from different protocols that yield images of comparable quality.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

DOE OSTI2014

SU-C-18A-04: 3D Markerless Registration of Lung Based On Coherent Point Drift: Application in Image Guided Radiotherapy

Purpose: This study evaluated a new probabilistic non-rigid registration method called coherent point drift for real time 3D markerless registration of the lung motion during radiotherapy. Method: 4DCT image datasets Dir-lab (www.dir-lab.com) have been used for creating 3D boundary element model of the lungs. For the first step, the 3D surface of the lungs in respiration phases T0 and T50 were segmented and divided into a finite number of linear triangular elements. Each triangle is a two dimensional object which has three vertices (each vertex has three degree of freedom). One of the main features of the lungs motion is velocity coherence so the vertices that creating the mesh of the lungs should also have features and degree of freedom of lung structure. This means that the vertices close to each other tend to move coherently. In the next step, we implemented a probabilistic non-rigid registration method called coherent point drift to calculate nonlinear displacement of vertices between different expiratory phases. Results: The method has been applied to images of 10-patients in Dir-lab dataset. The normal distribution of vertices to the origin for each expiratory stage were calculated. The results shows that the maximum error of registration between different expiratory phases is less than 0.4 mm (0.38 SI, 0.33 mm AP, 0.29 mm RL direction). This method is a reliable method for calculating the vector of displacement, and the degrees of freedom (DOFs) of lung structure in radiotherapy. Conclusions: We evaluated a new 3D registration method for distribution set of vertices inside lungs mesh. In this technique, lungs motion considering velocity coherence are inserted as a penalty in regularization function. The results indicate that high registration accuracy is achievable with CPD. This method is helpful for calculating of displacement vector and analyzing possible physiological and anatomical changes during treatment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

Bayesian network ensemble as a multivariate strategy to predict radiation pneumonitis risk

Purpose: Prediction of radiation pneumonitis (RP) has been shown to be challenging due to the involvement of a variety of factors including dose–volume metrics and radiosensitivity biomarkers. Some of these factors are highly correlated and might affect prediction results when combined. Bayesian network (BN) provides a probabilistic framework to represent variable dependencies in a directed acyclic graph. The aim of this study is to integrate the BN framework and a systems’ biology approach to detect possible interactions among RP risk factors and exploit these relationships to enhance both the understanding and prediction of RP. Methods: The authors studied 54 nonsmall-cell lung cancer patients who received curative 3D-conformal radiotherapy. Nineteen RP events were observed (common toxicity criteria for adverse events grade 2 or higher). Serum concentration of the following four candidate biomarkers were measured at baseline and midtreatment: alpha-2-macroglobulin, angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE), transforming growth factor, interleukin-6. Dose-volumetric and clinical parameters were also included as covariates. Feature selection was performed using a Markov blanket approach based on the Koller–Sahami filter. The Markov chain Monte Carlo technique estimated the posterior distribution of BN graphs built from the observed data of the selected variables and causality constraints. RP probability was estimated using a limited number of high posterior graphs (ensemble) and was averaged for the final RP estimate using Bayes’ rule. A resampling method based on bootstrapping was applied to model training and validation in order to control under- and overfit pitfalls. Results: RP prediction power of the BN ensemble approach reached its optimum at a size of 200. The optimized performance of the BN model recorded an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.83, which was significantly higher than multivariate logistic regression (0.77), mean heart dose (0.69), and a pre-to-midtreatment change in ACE (0.66). When RP prediction was made only with pretreatment information, the AUC ranged from 0.76 to 0.81 depending on the ensemble size. Bootstrap validation of graph features in the ensemble quantified confidence of association between variables in the graphs where ten interactions were statistically significant. Conclusions: The presented BN methodology provides the flexibility to model hierarchical interactions between RP covariates, which is applied to probabilistic inference on RP. The authors’ preliminary results demonstrate that such framework combined with an ensemble method can possibly improve prediction of RP under real-life clinical circumstances such as missing data or treatment plan adaptation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

TU-AB-BRB-00: New Methods to Ensure Target Coverage

The accepted clinical method to accommodate targeting uncertainties inherent in fractionated external beam radiation therapy is to utilize GTV-to-CTV and CTV-to-PTV margins during the planning process to design a PTV-conformal static dose distribution on the planning image set. Ideally, margins are selected to ensure a high (e.g. >95%) target coverage probability (CP) in spite of inherent inter- and intra-fractional positional variations, tissue motions, and initial contouring uncertainties. Robust optimization techniques, also known as probabilistic treatment planning techniques, explicitly incorporate the dosimetric consequences of targeting uncertainties by including CP evaluation into the planning optimization process along with coverage-based planning objectives. The treatment planner no longer needs to use PTV and/or PRV margins; instead robust optimization utilizes probability distributions of the underlying uncertainties in conjunction with CP-evaluation for the underlying CTVs and OARs to design an optimal treated volume. This symposium will describe CP-evaluation methods as well as various robust planning techniques including use of probability-weighted dose distributions, probability-weighted objective functions, and coverage optimized planning. Methods to compute and display the effect of uncertainties on dose distributions will be presented. The use of robust planning to accommodate inter-fractional setup uncertainties, organ deformation, and contouring uncertainties will be examined as will its use to accommodate intra-fractional organ motion. Clinical examples will be used to inter-compare robust and margin-based planning, highlighting advantages of robust-plans in terms of target and normal tissue coverage. Robust-planning limitations as uncertainties approach zero and as the number of treatment fractions becomes small will be presented, as well as the factors limiting clinical implementation of robust planning. Learning Objectives: To understand robust-planning as a clinical alternative to using margin-based planning. To understand conceptual differences between uncertainty and predictable motion. To understand fundamental limitations of the PTV concept that probabilistic planning can overcome. To understand the major contributing factors to target and normal tissue coverage probability. To understand the similarities and differences of various robust planning techniques To understand the benefits and limitations of robust planning techniques.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

TU-AB-BRB-02: Stochastic Programming Methods for Handling Uncertainty and Motion in IMRT Planning

The accepted clinical method to accommodate targeting uncertainties inherent in fractionated external beam radiation therapy is to utilize GTV-to-CTV and CTV-to-PTV margins during the planning process to design a PTV-conformal static dose distribution on the planning image set. Ideally, margins are selected to ensure a high (e.g. >95%) target coverage probability (CP) in spite of inherent inter- and intra-fractional positional variations, tissue motions, and initial contouring uncertainties. Robust optimization techniques, also known as probabilistic treatment planning techniques, explicitly incorporate the dosimetric consequences of targeting uncertainties by including CP evaluation into the planning optimization process along with coverage-based planning objectives. The treatment planner no longer needs to use PTV and/or PRV margins; instead robust optimization utilizes probability distributions of the underlying uncertainties in conjunction with CP-evaluation for the underlying CTVs and OARs to design an optimal treated volume. This symposium will describe CP-evaluation methods as well as various robust planning techniques including use of probability-weighted dose distributions, probability-weighted objective functions, and coverage optimized planning. Methods to compute and display the effect of uncertainties on dose distributions will be presented. The use of robust planning to accommodate inter-fractional setup uncertainties, organ deformation, and contouring uncertainties will be examined as will its use to accommodate intra-fractional organ motion. Clinical examples will be used to inter-compare robust and margin-based planning, highlighting advantages of robust-plans in terms of target and normal tissue coverage. Robust-planning limitations as uncertainties approach zero and as the number of treatment fractions becomes small will be presented, as well as the factors limiting clinical implementation of robust planning. Learning Objectives: To understand robust-planning as a clinical alternative to using margin-based planning. To understand conceptual differences between uncertainty and predictable motion. To understand fundamental limitations of the PTV concept that probabilistic planning can overcome. To understand the major contributing factors to target and normal tissue coverage probability. To understand the similarities and differences of various robust planning techniques To understand the benefits and limitations of robust planning techniques.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

TU-AB-BRB-03: Coverage-Based Treatment Planning to Accommodate Organ Deformable Motions and Contouring Uncertainties for Prostate Treatment

The accepted clinical method to accommodate targeting uncertainties inherent in fractionated external beam radiation therapy is to utilize GTV-to-CTV and CTV-to-PTV margins during the planning process to design a PTV-conformal static dose distribution on the planning image set. Ideally, margins are selected to ensure a high (e.g. >95%) target coverage probability (CP) in spite of inherent inter- and intra-fractional positional variations, tissue motions, and initial contouring uncertainties. Robust optimization techniques, also known as probabilistic treatment planning techniques, explicitly incorporate the dosimetric consequences of targeting uncertainties by including CP evaluation into the planning optimization process along with coverage-based planning objectives. The treatment planner no longer needs to use PTV and/or PRV margins; instead robust optimization utilizes probability distributions of the underlying uncertainties in conjunction with CP-evaluation for the underlying CTVs and OARs to design an optimal treated volume. This symposium will describe CP-evaluation methods as well as various robust planning techniques including use of probability-weighted dose distributions, probability-weighted objective functions, and coverage optimized planning. Methods to compute and display the effect of uncertainties on dose distributions will be presented. The use of robust planning to accommodate inter-fractional setup uncertainties, organ deformation, and contouring uncertainties will be examined as will its use to accommodate intra-fractional organ motion. Clinical examples will be used to inter-compare robust and margin-based planning, highlighting advantages of robust-plans in terms of target and normal tissue coverage. Robust-planning limitations as uncertainties approach zero and as the number of treatment fractions becomes small will be presented, as well as the factors limiting clinical implementation of robust planning. Learning Objectives: To understand robust-planning as a clinical alternative to using margin-based planning. To understand conceptual differences between uncertainty and predictable motion. To understand fundamental limitations of the PTV concept that probabilistic planning can overcome. To understand the major contributing factors to target and normal tissue coverage probability. To understand the similarities and differences of various robust planning techniques To understand the benefits and limitations of robust planning techniques.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

TU-CD-BRA-05: Atlas Selection for Multi-Atlas-Based Image Segmentation Using Surrogate Modeling

Purpose: The growing size and heterogeneity in training atlas necessitates sophisticated schemes to identify only the most relevant atlases for the specific multi-atlas-based image segmentation problem. This study aims to develop a model to infer the inaccessible oracle geometric relevance metric from surrogate image similarity metrics, and based on such model, provide guidance to atlas selection in multi-atlas-based image segmentation. Methods: We relate the oracle geometric relevance metric in label space to the surrogate metric in image space, by a monotonically non-decreasing function with additive random perturbations. Subsequently, a surrogate’s ability to prognosticate the oracle order for atlas subset selection is quantified probabilistically. Finally, important insights and guidance are provided for the design of fusion set size, balancing the competing demands to include the most relevant atlases and to exclude the most irrelevant ones. A systematic solution is derived based on an optimization framework. Model verification and performance assessment is performed based on clinical prostate MR images. Results: The proposed surrogate model was exemplified by a linear map with normally distributed perturbation, and verified with several commonly-used surrogates, including MSD, NCC and (N)MI. The derived behaviors of different surrogates in atlas selection and their corresponding performance in ultimate label estimate were validated. The performance of NCC and (N)MI was similarly superior to MSD, with a 10% higher atlas selection probability and a segmentation performance increase in DSC by 0.10 with the first and third quartiles of (0.83, 0.89), compared to (0.81, 0.89). The derived optimal fusion set size, valued at 7/8/8/7 for MSD/NCC/MI/NMI, agreed well with the appropriate range [4, 9] from empirical observation. Conclusion: This work has developed an efficacious probabilistic model to characterize the image-based surrogate metric on atlas selection. Analytical insights lead to valid guiding principles on fusion set size design.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2016

SU-F-J-187: The Statistical NTCP and TCP Models in the Proton Therapy

Purpose: The statistical models (SM) are typically used as a subjective description of a population for which there is only limited sample data, and especially in cases where the relationship between variables is known. The normal tissue complications and tumor control are frequently stochastic effects in the Radiotherapy (RT). Based on probabilistic treatments, it recently has been formulated new NTCP and TCP models for the RT. Investigating the particular requirements for their clinical use in the proton therapy (PT) is the goal of this work. Methods: The SM can be used as phenomenological or mechanistic models. The former way allows fitting real data and getting theirparameters. In the latter one, we should do efforts for determining the parameters through the acceptable estimations, measurements, and/or simulation experiments. Experimental methodologies for determination of the parameters have been developed from the fraction cells surviving the proton irradiation curves in tumor and OAR, and precise RBE models are used for calculating the variable of effective dose. As the executions of these methodologies have a high costs, so we have developed computer tools enable to perform simulation experiments as complement to limitations of the real ones. Results: The requirements for the use of the SM in the PT, such as validation and improvement of the elaborated and existent methodologies for determining the SM parameters and effective dose respectively, were determined. Conclusion: The SM realistically simulates the main processes in the PT, and for this reason these can be implemented in this therapy, which are simples, computable and they have other advantages over some current models. It has been determined some negative aspects for some currently used probabilistic models in the RT, like the LKB NTCP and others derived from logistic functions; which can be improved with the proposed methods in this study.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2012

Central and Eastern United States (CEUS) Seismic Source Characterization (SSC) for Nuclear Facilities Project

This report describes a new seismic source characterization (SSC) model for the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS). It will replace the Seismic Hazard Methodology for the Central and Eastern United States, EPRI Report NP-4726 (July 1986) and the Seismic Hazard Characterization of 69 Nuclear Plant Sites East of the Rocky Mountains, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Model, (Bernreuter et al., 1989). The objective of the CEUS SSC Project is to develop a new seismic source model for the CEUS using a Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) Level 3 assessment process. The goal of the SSHAC process is to represent the center, body, and range of technically defensible interpretations of the available data, models, and methods. Input to a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) consists of both seismic source characterization and ground motion characterization. These two components are used to calculate probabilistic hazard results (or seismic hazard curves) at a particular site. This report provides a new seismic source model.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2015

RAVEN User Manual

RAVEN is a generic software framework to perform parametric and probabilistic analysis based on the response of complex system codes. The initial development was aimed to provide dynamic risk analysis capabilities to the Thermo-Hydraulic code RELAP-7, currently under development at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Although the initial goal has been fully accomplished, RAVEN is now a multi-purpose probabilistic and uncertainty quantification platform, capable to agnostically communicate with any system code. This agnosticism includes providing Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). These APIs are used to allow RAVEN to interact with any code as long as all the parameters that need to be perturbed are accessible by inputs files or via python interfaces. RAVEN is capable of investigating the system response, and investigating the input space using Monte Carlo, Grid, or Latin Hyper Cube sampling schemes, but its strength is focused toward system feature discovery, such as limit surfaces, separating regions of the input space leading to system failure, using dynamic supervised learning techniques. The development of RAVEN has started in 2012, when, within the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, the need to provide a modern risk evaluation framework became stronger. RAVEN principal assignment is to provide the necessary software and algorithms in order to employ the concept developed by the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) program. RISMC is one of the pathways defined within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. In the RISMC approach, the goal is not just the individuation of the frequency of an event potentially leading to a system failure, but the closeness (or not) to key safety-related events. Hence, the approach is interested in identifying and increasing the safety margins related to those events. A safety margin is a numerical value quantifying the probability that a safety metric (e.g. for an important process such as peak pressure in a pipe) is exceeded under certain conditions. The initial development of RAVEN has been focused on providing dynamic risk assessment capability to RELAP-7, currently under development at the INL and, likely, future replacement of the RELAP5-3D code. Most the capabilities that have been implemented having RELAP-7 as principal focus are easily deployable for other system codes. For this reason, several side activaties are currently ongoing for coupling RAVEN with software such as RELAP5-3D, etc. The aim of this document is the explanation of the input requirements, focalizing on the input structure.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2016

RAVEN User Manual

RAVEN is a generic software framework to perform parametric and probabilistic analysis based on the response of complex system codes. The initial development was aimed to provide dynamic risk analysis capabilities to the Thermo-Hydraulic code RELAP-7, currently under development at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Although the initial goal has been fully accomplished, RAVEN is now a multi-purpose probabilistic and uncertainty quantification platform, capable to agnostically communicate with any system code. This agnosticism includes providing Application Programming Interfaces (APIs). These APIs are used to allow RAVEN to interact with any code as long as all the parameters that need to be perturbed are accessible by input files or via python interfaces. RAVEN is capable of investigating the system response, and investigating the input space using Monte Carlo, Grid, or Latin Hyper Cube sampling schemes, but its strength is focused toward system feature discovery, such as limit surfaces, separating regions of the input space leading to system failure, using dynamic supervised learning techniques. The development of RAVEN started in 2012, when, within the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, the need to provide a modern risk evaluation framework became stronger. RAVEN principal assignment is to provide the necessary software and algorithms in order to employ the concept developed by the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) program. RISMC is one of the pathways defined within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. In the RISMC approach, the goal is not just the individuation of the frequency of an event potentially leading to a system failure, but the closeness (or not) to key safety-related events. Hence, the approach is interested in identifying and increasing the safety margins related to those events. A safety margin is a numerical value quantifying the probability that a safety metric (e.g. for an important process such as peak pressure in a pipe) is exceeded under certain conditions. The initial development of RAVEN has been focused on providing dynamic risk assessment capability to RELAP-7, currently under development at the INL and, likely, future replacement of the RELAP5-3D code. Most the capabilities that have been implemented having RELAP-7 as principal focus are easily deployable for other system codes. For this reason, several side activates are currently ongoing for coupling RAVEN with software such as RELAP5-3D, etc. The aim of this document is the explanation of the input requirements, focusing on the input structure.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Time Dependent Data Mining in RAVEN

RAVEN is a generic software framework to perform parametric and probabilistic analysis based on the response of complex system codes. The goal of this type of analyses is to understand the response of such systems in particular with respect their probabilistic behavior, to understand their predictability and drivers or lack of thereof. Data mining capabilities are the cornerstones to perform such deep learning of system responses. For this reason static data mining capabilities were added last fiscal year (FY 15). In real applications, when dealing with complex multi-scale, multi-physics systems it seems natural that, during transients, the relevance of the different scales, and physics, would evolve over time. For these reasons the data mining capabilities have been extended allowing their application over time. In this writing it is reported a description of the new RAVEN capabilities implemented with several simple analytical tests to explain their application and highlight the proper implementation. The report concludes with the application of those newly implemented capabilities to the analysis of a simulation performed with the Bison code.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2017

MASTODON Theory Manual

Multi-hazard Analysis for STOchastic time-DOmaiN phenomena (MASTODON) is a finite element application that aims at analyzing the response of 3-D soil-structure systems to natural and man-made hazards such as earthquakes, floods and fire. MASTODON currently focuses on the simulation of seismic events and has the capability to perform extensive ‘source-to-site’ simulations including earthquake fault rupture, nonlinear wave propagation and nonlinear soil-structure interaction (NLSSI) analysis. MASTODON is being developed to be a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment framework that enables analysts to not only perform deterministic analyses, but also easily perform probabilistic or stochastic simulations for the purpose of risk assessment.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

RAVIS: Resource Forecast and Ramp Visualization for Situational Awareness - An Introduction to the Open-Source Tool and Use Cases

The Resource Forecast and Ramp Visualization for Situational Awareness (RAVIS) is an open-source tool for visualizing variable renewable resource forecasts and ramp alerts for significant up/down ramps in renewable resource and the consequent net-load. The modular dashboard of RAVIS contains configurable panes for viewing- probabilistic time series forecasts, ramp event alerts on the look-ahead timeline, spatially resolved resource sites and forecasts, and system simulation and market clearing data such as transmission lines utilization, nodal prices and available generation flexibility. RAVIS uses a technology suite that is assembled to provide optimum visualization facility while maintaining a wide pool of potential deployment and client environments. The tool is designed to take advantage of web application technologies, open source visualization libraries and tooling. Utilizing this technology will enable deployment in any environment, using any operating system, and is scalable to much higher spatial and temporal scales of visualization. As a prototype of the tool and demonstrating a use case of variable renewable integration, RAVIS currently integrates site-specific solar power forecasts in the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) and Mid-continent ISO (MISO) footprint from the IBM WattSun forecasting platform, and also superimposes market simulation data for CAISO footprint from as in-house NREL market clearing tool. The tool has the ability to alert the viewer for excessive up or down ramps for both individual solar sites as well as regionally aggregated net-load ramps, and alerts can also be qualified with respect to available flexible generation. This report will provide an introduction to the RAVIS tool, and summarize the above mentioned capabilities, typical use cases and possible extensions of the tool. The RAVIS development team believes there are likely to be high economic and reliability benefits of integrating probabilistic forecasts of variable renewables into control center visualizations and improved ramp events situational awareness for system operators and forecasting teams in the ISOs and electric utilities in comparison with their business as usual practices.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2021

Systematic Enterprise Risk Management by Integrating the RISMC Toolkit and Cost-Benefit Analysis (Final Report)

The goal of this research is to theorize and quantify the relationships between safety and the financial performance of nuclear power plants (NPPs). The Socio-Technical Risk Analysis (SoTeRiA) theoretical framework, which connects the social aspects (e.g., safety culture) and structural features (e.g., safety practices) of an organization with organizational safety and financial risks, is used to theorize the direct and indirect relationships between safety and the financial performance of NPPs. An Integrated Enterprise Risk Management (I-ERM) methodological framework is developed to operationalize SoTeRiA to quantify NPP safety and financial performance in a unified platform where their underlying physical degradation mechanisms, coupled with maintenance performance (considering human and organizational factors), are explicitly incorporated to depict the interconnections and dependencies between safety and financial performance. In this study, NPP safety refers to both occupational safety and system safety (estimated from Probabilistic Risk Assessment, PRA), and financial performance refers to the monetary values associated with NPP operation and maintenance (O&M) strategies. This report covers a case study demonstrating the feasibility of the I-ERM methodological framework. More detailed development of one of the I-ERM modules, i.e., Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure (PPoF) analysis, and its connection with other I-ERM modules is demonstrated in a second case study. The outcome of this research will help NPP decision-makers create cost-saving maintenance strategies while maintaining safety by providing cost- and risk-informed recommendations regarding maintenance work processes and operational strategies.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comparing Capacity Credit Calculations for Wind: A Case Study in Texas

The degree to which wind energy can contribute to the capacity needed to meet resource adequacy requirements, also known as capacity credit (CC), varies regionally with wind resource and correlation to net load. CC is an important metric widely used for resource planning and resource adequacy assessments. However, there are multiple methods for computing and estimating CC, depending on specific needs, access to data, and computational burden. It is unclear the extent to which the CC computation method may influence the result. To address this, we use a probabilistic resource adequacy tool and multiple approximation methods to systematically assess the CC of wind for near-term wind deployment under a case study in Texas. We find that proper consideration of transmission constraints is important; some approximation methods may overestimate the CC of wind due to a lack of consideration of transmission constraints, while other approximation methods may underestimate the CC by not capturing the ability of wind to be shipped to neighboring regions. In this case study, we find that several approximation methods do come close to the CC calculated by more robust probabilistic methods. However, the best approximation method may vary on a case-by-case basis, depending on system-specific considerations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗