Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “interval analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

1,764 records · Page 98
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1994

Electrodynamic parameters in the nighttime sector during auroral substorms

The characteristics of the large-scale electrodynamic parameters, field-aligned currents (FACs), electric fields, and electron precipitation, which are associated with auroral substorm events in the nighttime sector, have been obtained through a unique analysis which places the ionospheric measurements of these parameters into the context of a generic substorm determined from global auroral images. A generic bulge-type auroral emission region has been deduced from auroral images taken by the Dynamics Explorer 1 (DE 1) satellite during a number of isolated substorms, and the form has been divided into six sectors, based on the peculiar emission characteristics in each sector: west of bulge, surge horn, surge, middle surge, eastern bulge, and east of bulge. By comparing the location of passes of the Dynamics Explorer 2 (DE 2) satellite to the simultaneously obtained auroral images, each pass is placed onto the generic aurora. The organization of DE 2 data in this way has systematically clarified peculiar characteristics in the electrodynamic parameters. An upward net current mainly appears in the surge, with little net current in the surge horn and the west of bulge. The downward net current is distributed over wide longitudinal regions from the eastern bulge to the east of bulge. Near the poleward boundary of the expanding auroral bulge, a pair of oppositely directed FAC sheets is observed, with the downward FAC on the poleward side. This downward FAC and most of the upward FAC in the surge and the middle surge are assoc iated with narrow, intense antisunwqard convection, corresponding to an equatorward directed spikelike electric field. This pair of currents decreases in amplitude and latitudinal width toward dusk in the surge and the west of bulge, and the region 1 and 2 FACs become embedded in the sunward convection region. The upward FAC region associated with the spikelike field on the poleward edge of the bulge coincides well with intense electron precipitation and aurora appearing in this western and poleward protion of the bulge. The convection reversal is sharp in the west of bulge and surge horn sectors, and near the high-latitude boundary of the upward region 1, with a near stagnation region often extending over a large interval of latitude. In the eastern bulge and east of bulge sectors, the region 1 and 2 FACs are located in the sunward convection region, while a spikelike electric field occasionally appears poleward of the aurora but usually not associated with a pair of FAC sheets. In the eastern bulge, magnetic field data show complicated FAC distributions which correspond to current segments and filamentary currents.

Fujii, R.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Skin factor and potential formation damage from chemical and mechanical processes in a naturally fractured carbonate aquifer with implications to CO 2 sequestration

Here, in this study, we investigate formation damage due to acidization and water injection tests into the naturally fractured carbonate Middle Duperow Formation at Kevin Dome, Montana, potentially diminishing the chance of a future successful Geological Carbon Sequestration (GCS) project. Multiple well-test analytical models, correlated with core description and lithology data, are used to determine flow behavior and communication between the water injection interval and surrounding formations. An improved three-dimensional (3D) geologic model with dual-continuum matrix and fracture properties is constructed based on most recent seismic, core, and water sample measurements. Brine injection is simulated to verify the interpretation from the analytical models, followed by CO 2 injection simulation. Geochemical calculations are performed to understand the in-situ processes that led to formation damage. Our findings suggest: (1) there are two possible scenarios that could lead to a positive total effective skin factor and permeability decline: partial penetration and formation damage; (2) analytical models indicate a positive total skin factor, contradicting results of a previous study suggesting that the well was mildly stimulated; (3) numerical simulation supports the formation damage hypothesis by matching the pressure buildup observed during the latter two brine injection tests; (4) several mechanical and chemical processes may have occurred during injection to clog the matrix/fracture system: anhydrite fines migration and/or calcite precipitation. We then make preventative suggestions for future GCS projects into carbonate reservoirs and remediation recommendations for GCS operation at the Kevin Dome.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cosmological inference from an emulator based halo model. II. Joint analysis of galaxy-galaxy weak lensing and galaxy clustering from HSC-Y1 and SDSS

Here, we present high-fidelity cosmology results from a blinded joint analysis of galaxy-galaxy weak lensing (ΔΣ) and projected galaxy clustering (w p ) measured from the Hyper Suprime-Cam Year-1 (HSC-Y1) data and spectroscopic Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) galaxy catalogs in the redshift range 0.15 < z < 0.7. We define luminosity-limited samples of SDSS galaxies to serve as the tracers of w p in three spectroscopic redshift bins, and as the lens samples for ΔΣ. For the ΔΣ measurements, we select a single sample of 4×10 6 source galaxies over 140 deg 2 from HSC-Y1 with photometric redshifts (photo z) greater than 0.75, enabling a better handle of photo- z errors by comparing the ΔΣ amplitudes for the three lens redshift bins. The deep, high-quality HSC-Y1 data enable significant detections of the ΔΣ signals, with integrated signal-to-noise ratio S/N ~ 15 in the range 3 ≤ R/[h –1 Mpc] ≤ 30 for the three lens samples, despite the small area coverage. For cosmological parameter inference, we use an input galaxy-halo connection model built on the dark emulator package (which uses an ensemble set of high-resolution N-body simulations and enables fast, accurate computation of the clustering observables) with a halo occupation distribution that includes nuisance parameters to marginalize over modeling uncertainties. We model the ΔΣ and wp measurements on scales from R≃3 and 2h –1 Mpc , respectively, up to 30 h –1 Mpc (therefore excluding the baryon acoustic oscillations information) assuming a flat Λ CDM cosmology, marginalizing over about 20 nuisance parameters and demonstrating the robustness of our results to them. With various tests using mock catalogs described in Miyatake et al. [preceding paper, Phys. Rev. D 106, 083519 (2022)], we show that any bias in the clustering amplitude S 8 ≡ σ 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.5 due to uncertainties in the galaxy-halo connection is less than ~ 50 % of the statistical uncertainty of S 8 , unless the assembly biaseffect is unexpectedly large. Our best-fit models have S 8 = 0.795$_{-0.042}^{+0.049}$ (mode and 68% credible interval) for the flat Λ CDM model; we find tighter constraints on the quantity S 8 (α = 0.17)≡σ 8 (Ω m /0.3) 0.17 = 0.745$_{-0.031}^{+0.039}$.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2014

Service Life Extension of the Propulsion System of Long-Term Manned Orbital Stations

One of the critical non-replaceable systems of a long-term manned orbital station is the propulsion system. Since the propulsion system operates beginning with the launch of station elements into orbit, its service life determines the service life of the station overall. Weighing almost a million pounds, the International Space Station (ISS) is about four times as large as the Russian space station Mir and about five times as large as the U.S. Skylab. Constructed over a span of more than a decade with the help of over 100 space flights, elements and modules of the ISS provide more research space than any spacecraft ever built. Originally envisaged for a service life of fifteen years, this Earth orbiting laboratory has been in orbit since 1998. Some elements that have been launched later in the assembly sequence were not yet built when the first elements were placed in orbit. Hence, some of the early modules that were launched at the inception of the program were already nearing the end of their design life when the ISS was finally ready and operational. To maximize the return on global investments on ISS, it is essential for the valuable research on ISS to continue as long as the station can be sustained safely in orbit. This paper describes the work performed to extend the service life of the ISS propulsion system. A system comprises of many components with varying failure rates. Reliability of a system is the probability that it will perform its intended function under encountered operating conditions, for a specified period of time. As we are interested in finding out how reliable a system would be in the future, reliability expressed as a function of time provides valuable insight. In a hypothetical bathtub shaped failure rate curve, the failure rate, defined as the number of failures per unit time that a currently healthy component will suffer in a given future time interval, decreases during infant-mortality period, stays nearly constant during the service life and increases at the end when the design service life ends and wear-out phase begins. However, the component failure rates do not remain constant over the entire cycle life. The failure rate depends on various factors such as design complexity, current age of the component, operating conditions, severity of environmental stress factors, etc. Development, qualification and acceptance test processes provide rigorous screening of components to weed out imperfections that might otherwise cause infant mortality failures. If sufficient samples are tested to failure, the failure time versus failure quantity can be analyzed statistically to develop a failure probability distribution function (PDF), a statistical model of the probability of failure versus time. Driven by cost and schedule constraints however, spacecraft components are generally not tested in large numbers. Uncertainties in failure rate and remaining life estimates increase when fewer units are tested. To account for this, spacecraft operators prefer to limit useful operations to a period shorter than the maximum demonstrated service life of the weakest component. Running each component to its failure to determine the maximum possible service life of a system can become overly expensive and impractical. Spacecraft operators therefore, specify the required service life and an acceptable factor of safety (FOS). The designers use these requirements to limit the life test duration. Midway through the design life, when benefits justify additional investments, supplementary life test may be performed to demonstrate the capability to safely extend the service life of the system. An innovative approach is required to evaluate the entire system, without having to go through an elaborate test program of propulsion system elements. Evaluating every component through a brute force test program would be a cost prohibitive and time consuming endeavor. ISS propulsion system components were designed and built decades ago. There are no representative ground test articles for some of the components. A 'test everything' approach would require manufacturing new test articles. The paper outlines some of the techniques used for selective testing, by way of cherry picking candidate components based on failure mode effects analysis, system level impacts, hazard analysis, etc. The type of testing required for extending the service life depends on the design and criticality of the component, failure modes and failure mechanisms, life cycle margin provided by the original certification, operational and environmental stresses encountered, etc. When specific failure mechanism being considered and the underlying relationship of that mode to the stresses provided in the test can be correlated by supporting analysis, time and effort required for conducting life extension testing can be significantly reduced. Exposure to corrosive propellants over long periods of time, for instance, lead to specific failure mechanisms in several components used in the propulsion system. Using Arrhenius model, which is tied to chemically dependent failure mechanisms such as corrosion or chemical reactions, it is possible to subject carefully selected test articles to accelerated life test. Arrhenius model reflects the proportional relationship between time to failure of a component and the exponential of the inverse of absolute temperature acting on the component. The acceleration factor is used to perform tests at higher stresses that allow direct correlation between the times to failure at a high test temperature to the temperatures to be expected in actual use. As long as the temperatures are such that new failure mechanisms are not introduced, this becomes a very useful method for testing to failure a relatively small sample of items for a much shorter amount of time. In this article, based on the example of the propulsion system of the first ISS module Zarya, theoretical approaches and practical activities of extending the service life of the propulsion system are reviewed with the goal of determining the maximum duration of its safe operation.

Kamath, Ulhas↗
NASA NTRS2022

Deriving Severe Hail Likelihood from Satellite Observations and Model Reanalysis Parameters using a Deep Neural Network

Geostationary satellite imagers, such as those of the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) series, have been observing severe convection at 15–60-minute intervals for over 40 years. When properly assessed, such a data record can be valuable in efforts of estimating severe storm risk throughout the diurnal cycle based on automated detection of patterns consistently found atop severe storms. Furthermore, environmental conditions favorable for severe weather are well-known and are thought to be represented well by modern reanalysis products. Promoting resilience against such hazards on local and global scales is a chief goal the NASA Disasters program, which seeks to encourage use of satellite observations to mitigate risk. For instance, hail is the costliest severe weather hazard across the globe in terms of insured loss, but reporting inconsistencies for hail events globally make it difficult to develop models that can quantify the risk. Satellite observation and model reanalysis taken together have the potential to, with reasonable skill and specificity, characterize environmental conditions that are favorable for hazardous weather, and thereby enable creation of hazard climatologie. Such climatologies are particularly useful over regions without extensive radar networks or storm reporting. By mapping the multivariate combination of observed cloud features and reanalysis environmental parameters/indices to United States Next Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) radar-estimated Maximum Expected Size of Hail (MESH) by way of a deep neural network (DNN), estimates of likelihood for potentially severe hail can be produced. Such estimates are of greater complexity and efficiency than could be performed with previous multivariate or logistic regression analyses for observed points within convective systems. Statistical distributions of convective parameters from satellite and reanalysis are shown to highlight non-severe/severe class separation for well-known hailstorm predictors, e.g., overshooting cloud top characteristics, deep-layer wind shear, mid-level stability, helicity, and convective inhibition. These complex, multivariate predictor relationships are exploited within a DNN, which can efficiently produce a quantitative hail risk metric with better than 70% detection rate and under 30% false alarms. These hail classifications can then be aggregated across the satellite record to yield a hazard climatology for hail frequency and severity – knowledge of which is of particular interest to those who manage risk (e.g., insurers) and are seeking opportunities to identify hail-prone regions, particularly in developing nations. This NASA study uses satellite observations and model parameters in a DNN to perform climatological hailstorm analysis in support of catastrophe model development, with the hope of promoting risk resilience particularly in regions without adequate weather radar coverage.

Passive Remote Sensing↗
NASA NTRS2001

Delta L: An Apparatus for Measuring Macromolecule Crystal Growth Rates in Microgravity

Strongly diffracting high quality macromolecule crystals of suitable volume are keenly sought for X-ray diffraction analysis so that high-resolution molecular structure data can be obtained. Such data is of tremendous value to medical research, agriculture and commercial biotechnology. In previous studies by many investigators microgravity has been reported in some instances to improve biological macromolecule X-ray crystal quality while little or no improvement was observed in other cases. A better understanding of processes effecting crystal quality improvement in microgravity will therefore be of great benefit in optimizing crystallization success in microgravity. In ground based research with the protein lysozyme we have previously shown that a population of crystals grown under the same solution conditions, exhibit a variation in X-ray diffraction properties (Judge et al., 1999). We have also observed that under the same solution conditions, individual crystals will grow at slightly different growth rates. This phenomenon is called growth rate dispersion. For small molecule materials growth rate dispersion has been directly related to crystal quality (Cunningham et al., 1991; Ristic et al., 1991). We therefore postulate that microgravity may act to improve crystal quality by reducing growth rate dispersion. If this is the case then as different, Materials exhibit different degrees of growth rate dispersion on the ground then growth rate dispersion could be used to screen which materials may benefit the most from microgravity crystallization. In order to assess this theory the Delta L hardware is being developed so that macromolecule crystal growth rates can be measured in microgravity. Crystal growth rate is defined as the change or delta in crystal size (defined as a characteristic length, L) over time; hence the name of the hardware. Delta L will consist of an optics, a fluids, and a data acquisition sub-assemblies. The optics assembly will consist of a video microscope camera mounted on three axis computer controlled translation stages. The fluids assembly consists of macromolecule and precipitant reservoirs, a temperature controlled growth cell and waste container, The data acquisition is achieved by using a frame-gabber, with images being stored on a hard drive. In operation, macromolecule and precipitant solution will be injected into the temperature controlled growth cell. As macromolecule crystals grow, the video microscope camera controlled by the translation stages, will be used to locate and record images of individual crystals, returning to the same crystals at specific time intervals. The images will be stored on the hard drive and used to calculate the crystal growth rate. To prevent vibrations interfering in the crystal growth rate measurements (Snell et al., 1997) Delta L will be used in connection with the Glovebox Integrated Microgravity Isolation Technology (g-LIMIT) inside the Microgravity Science Glovebox (MSG), onboard the International Space Station (ISS).

Judge, Russell A.↗
NASA NTRS1999

NASA/NOAA: Earth Science Electronic Theater 1999

The Electronic Theater (E-theater) presents visualizations which span the period from the original Suomi/Hasler animations of the first ATS-1 GEO weather satellite images in 1966 to the latest 1999 NASA Earth Science Vision for the next 25 years. Hot off the SGI-Onyx Graphics-Supercomputer are NASA's visualizations of Hurricanes Mitch, Georges, Fran and Linda. These storms have been recently featured on the covers of National Geographic, Time, Newsweek and Popular Science. Highlights will be shown from the NASA hurricane visualization resource video tape that has been used repeatedly this season on National and International network TV. Results will be presented from a new paper on automatic wind measurements in Hurricane Luis from 1-min GOES images that appeared in the November BAMS. The visualizations are produced by the NASA Goddard Visualization and Analysis Laboratory (VAL/912), and Scientific Visualization Studio (SVS/930), as well as other Goddard and NASA groups using NASA, NOAA, ESA, and NASDA Earth science datasets. Visualizations will be shown from the Earth Science E-Theater 1999 recently presented in Tokyo, Paris, Munich, Sydney, Melbourne, Honolulu, Washington, New York, and Dallas. The presentation Jan 11-14 at the AMS meeting in Dallas used a 4-CPU SGI/CRAY Onyx Infinite Reality Super Graphics Workstation with 8 GB RAM and a Terabyte Disk at 3840 X 1024 resolution with triple synchronized BarcoReality 9200 projectors on a 60ft wide screen. Visualizations will also be featured from the new Earth Today Exhibit which was opened by Vice President Gore on July 2, 1998 at the Smithsonian Air & Space museum in Washington, as well as those presented for possible use at the American Museum of Natural History (NYC), Disney EPCOT, and other venues. New methods are demonstrated for visualizing, interpreting, comparing, organizing and analyzing immense HyperImage remote sensing datasets and three dimensional numerical model results. We call the data from many new Earth sensing satellites, HyperImage datasets, because they have such high resolution in the spectral, temporal, spatial, and dynamic range domains. The traditional numerical spreadsheet paradigm has been extended to develop a scientific visualization approach for processing HyperImage datasets and 3D model results interactively. The advantages of extending the powerful spreadsheet style of computation to multiple sets of images and organizing image processing were demonstrated using the Distributed image SpreadSheet (DISS). The DISS is being used as a high performance testbed Next Generation Internet (NGI) VisAnalysis of: 1) El Nino SSTs and NDVI response 2) Latest GOES 10 5-min rapid Scans of 26 day 5000 frame movie of March & April '98 weather and tornadic storms 3) TRMM rainfall and lightning 4)GOES 9 satellite images/winds and NOAA aircraft radar of hurricane Luis, 5) lightning detector data merged with GOES image sequences, 6) Japanese GMS, TRMM, & ADEOS data 7) Chinese FY2 data 8) Meteosat & ERS/ATSR data 9) synchronized manipulation of multiple 3D numerical model views; and others will be illustrated. The Image SpreadSheet has been highly successful in producing Earth science visualizations for public outreach. Many of these visualizations have been widely disseminated through the world wide web pages of the HPCC/LTP/RSD program which can be found at http://rsd.gsfc.nasa.gov/rsd The one min interval animations of Hurricane Luis on ABC Nightline and the color perspective rendering of Hurricane Fran published by TIME, LIFE, Newsweek, Popular Science, National Geographic, Scientific American, and the "Weekly Reader" are some of the examples which will be shown.

Hasler, A. Fritz↗
NASA NTRS2002

Interocular velocity difference contributes to stereomotion speed perception

Two experiments are presented assessing the contributions of the rate of change of disparity (CD) and interocular velocity difference (IOVD) cues to stereomotion speed perception. Using a two-interval forced-choice paradigm, the perceived speed of directly approaching and receding stereomotion and of monocular lateral motion in random dot stereogram (RDS) targets was measured. Prior adaptation using dysjunctively moving random dot stimuli induced a velocity aftereffect (VAE). The degree of interocular correlation in the adapting images was manipulated to assess the effectiveness of each cue. While correlated adaptation involved a conventional RDS stimulus, containing both IOVD and CD cues, uncorrelated adaptation featured an independent dot array in each monocular half-image, and hence lacked a coherent disparity signal. Adaptation produced a larger VAE for stereomotion than for monocular lateral motion, implying effects at neural sites beyond that of binocular combination. For motion passing through the horopter, correlated and uncorrelated adaptation stimuli produced equivalent stereomotion VAEs. The possibility that these results were due to the adaptation of a CD mechanism through random matches in the uncorrelated stimulus was discounted in a control experiment. Here both simultaneous and sequential adaptation of left and right eyes produced similar stereomotion VAEs. Motion at uncrossed disparities was also affected by both correlated and uncorrelated adaptation stimuli, but showed a significantly greater VAE in response to the former. These results show that (1) there are two separate, specialised mechanisms for encoding stereomotion: one through IOVD, the other through CD; (2) the IOVD cue dominates the perception of stereomotion speed for stimuli passing through the horopter; and (3) at a disparity pedestal both the IOVD and the CD cues have a significant influence.

Vision, Binocular/physiology↗
NASA NTRS2012

In Situ Carbon and Sulfur Isotope Analysis of Archean Organic Matter and Pyrite

Stable isotopic compositions of biologically important elements (e.g., C and S) in sedimentary rocks are valuable biosignatures to the extent that they indicate the presence and variable expression of microbial metabolisms in space and time. Strong interactions between the carbon and sulfur cycles (e.g., via organic matter remineralization during microbial sulfate reduction) make coordinated, in situ C and S isotope analysis by secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) a particularly powerful tool. In rocks ranging in age from 2.7-2.5 Ga, expansions in the ranges of delta C-13 of organic matter and delta S-34 of pyrite likely reflect the increasing influence of oxygenic photosynthesis in the surface ocean (as well as methane and sulfur metabolisms in deeper waters), whereas the large range of mass independent sulfur isotope fractionation (Delta S-33) suggests that the atmosphere remained anoxic until approx 2.4 Gyr ago. We report in situ delta C-13 measurements of organic matter in the approx 2.7-2.6 Ga Carawine Dolomite, Marra Mamba Iron Formation, and Jeerinah, Wittenoom, and Tumbiana Formations, as well as the approx 2.5 Ga Mount McRae Shale. We also report in situ delta S-24 and Delta S-33 measurements of pyrite associated with organic matter in a subset of these samples. In a single square cm sample of the Tumbiana Formation with bulk delta C-13(sub org) of -49.7% (VPDB), two distinct kerogen types have delta C-13 values, measured in situ, consistent with oxygenic photosynthesis (-33%) and methane metabolism (-52%). In a sample from the ABDP-9 core, radiobitumen associated with a uraniferous mineral grain is C-13-enriched by 8% (-26.8%0) relative to average in situ kerogen (-34.9%0) and similar in delta C-13 to solvent extractable hydrocarbons from the Mount McRae Shale (avg delta C-13 = -27.1 %). Average reproducibility for delta C-13 was 0.4% (2 SD) using a 6 micron spot and 0.8% using a 3 micron spot. In situ sulfur isotope analyses of 33 authigenic pyrite grains in 3 samples of the ABDP-9 core using a 10 micron spot (2 SD reproducibility = 0.4% for delta S-34 and -0.1% for Delta S-33) show a range of 28.1 % in delta S-34 (-10.3 to 17.8%) and 13.3%0 in Delta S-33 (-3.8 to 9.5%), whereas the range from 132 bulk analyses across 84 m of core is 19.4% for delta S-34 and 11.5% for Delta S-33. Coordinated, in situ carbon and sulfur isotope analyses in one ABDP-9 sample are shown. In situ values from this kerogen-pyrite association are within 0.1% of the bulk value in the case of delta C-13 and higher by several permil in the case of delta S-34 and Delta S-33. Coordinated in situ carbon and sulfur isotope analyses in rocks deposited during key intervals of environmental change (e.g., the Great Oxidation Event) can refine our understanding of the mode and tempo of change. In Earth's oldest sedimentary rocks, and in extraterrestrial samples, these coordinated in situ analyses may reveal biosignatures in the form of isotopic correlations at the scale of individual microorganisms and their microhabitats.

Williford, K. H.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Accelerated Lifetime Testing of Main Shaft Seals for Tidal Turbine Rotors

This document will briefly discuss the observations and results from an NREL conducted accelerated lifetime testing of the main shaft seal for the Verdant Power fifth generation Gen5 underwater Tidal Energy Converter (TEC) turbine, which successfully performed at the RITE project in 2020-2021. In order to evaluate a 5-year Service Interval ( SI) for this component, testing at NREL operated the main shaft seal nearly continuously for over 135 (text says 130 days on page 5 and 125 days on page 7 and 137 days on page 11) days at a rotational velocity of 160 rpm while the test stand recorded water pressure, barrier fluid pressure, temperature, and number of cycles., representing ~ 40% of the SI. An additional separate test was conducted to measure the aging behavior of the rubber drive rings. The water pressure reservoir was held constant as 29 psi. Barrier fluid pressure remained relatively constant throughout the duration of the test but was seen to sink to as low as 10.1 psi. No barrier fluid leakage was observed throughout the test. A sudden failure occurred within the seal after the power to test machine was interrupted for a scheduled building maintenance procedure. Upon restarting, the main shaft seal lost all ability to prevent water ingress. The exact cause is not known but is believed to be either a seal assembly issue or a change in the alignment of the seal components during or following the power outage. Following seal disassembly, significant wear was seen on one of the graphite sealing rings. Based on these results it is recommended that a follow-on TEAMER be conducted to rectify protocol and assembly issues to further evaluate SI of this component. The support and participation of Verdant Power Inc, Dovetail Solutions LLC and Garlock Manufacturing Inc were instrumental in understanding the results. NREL thanks them for their significant effort.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1997

Lithological Variation with Depth and Decoupling of Maturity Parameters in Apollo 16 Regolith Core 68001/2

Using FerroMagnetic Resonance (FMR) and Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (INAA), we have determined the maturity (surface exposure) parameter I(sub s)/FeO and concentrations of twenty- five chemical elements on samples taken every half centimeter down the 61-cm length of the 68001/2 regolith core (double drive tube) collected at station 8 on the Apollo 16 mission to the Moon. Contrary to premission expectations, no ejecta or other influence from South Ray crater is evident in the core, although a small inflection in the I(sub s)/FeO profile at 3 cm depth may be related the South Ray crater impact. Regolith maturity generally decreases with depth, as in several previously studied cores. We recognize five compositionally distinct units in the core, which we designate A through E, although all are similar in composition to each other and to other soils from the Cayley plains at the Apollo 16 site. Unit A (0-33 cm) is mature to submature throughout (I(sub s)/FeO: 89-34 units) and is indistinguishable in composition from surface soils collected at station 8. Unit B (33-37 cm) is enriched slightly in a component of anorthositic norite composition. Unit D (42-53 cm) is compositionally equivalent to 80 wt% Unit-A soil plus 20 wt% Apollo-16-type dimict breccia consisting of subequal parts anorthosite and impact-melt breccia. Compared to Unit A, Unit E (53-61 cm) contains a small proportion (up to 4%) of some component compositionally similar to Apollo 14 sample 14321. Unit C (37-42 cm) is unusual. For lithophile and siderophile elements, it is similar to Units A and D. However, I(sub s)/FeO is low throughout the unit (less than 30 units) and in a bluish-gray zone at 41 cm depth I(sub s)/FeO drops to 1.6 units, the lowest value that we have observed in several hundred Apollo 16 soil samples. Samples from the bluish-gray zone also have low Zn concentrations, less than 10 micro g/g, compared to 20-30 micro g/g for the rest of the core. Although both values are consistent with fragmented rock material that has received virtually no surface exposure, the abundance of agglutinates in the bluish-gray soil of Unit C is moderately high, typical of a submature soil that would ordinarily have I(sub s)/FeO - 30. We believe that the anomalously low values of I(sub s)/FeO and Zn concentration result because the soil was heated to -800-1000 'C, probably during an impact. This temperature range is sufficient to volatize the surface-correlated Zn and agglomerate the nanophase metal giving rise to the FMR signal but is not great enough to sinter the soil. Alternatively, the unusual soil interval may represent a disaggregated or incipient regolith breccia, although there is no significant difference in the texture or clast-matrix relationships between Unit C and adjacent units.

Korotev, Randy L.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Divergent effects of sex and calcium/vitamin D supplementation on serum magnesium and markers of bone structure and function during initial military training

Maintaining Mg status may be important for military recruits, a population that experiences high rates of stress fracture during initial military training (IMT). The objectives of this secondary analysis were to (1) compare dietary Mg intake and serum Mg in female and male recruits pre- and post-IMT, (2) determine whether serum Mg was related to parameters of bone health pre-IMT, and (3) whether Ca and vitamin D supplementation (Ca/vitamin D) during IMT modified serum Mg. Females (n 62) and males (n 51) consumed 2000 mg of Ca and 25 μg of vitamin D/d or placebo during IMT (12 weeks). Dietary Mg intakes were estimated using FFQ, serum Mg was assessed and peripheral quantitative computed tomography was performed on the tibia. Dietary Mg intakes for females and males pre-IMT were below the estimated average requirement and did not change with training. Serum Mg increased during IMT in females (0·06 ± 0·08 mmol/l) compared with males (–0·02 ± 0·10 mmol/l; P < 0·001) and in those consuming Ca/vitamin D (0·05 ± 0·09 mmol/l) compared with placebo (0·001 ± 0·11 mmol/l; P = 0·015). In females, serum Mg was associated with total bone mineral content (BMC, β = 0·367, P = 0·004) and robustness (β = 0·393, P = 0·006) at the distal 4 % site, stress–strain index of the polaris axis (β = 0·334, P = 0·009) and robustness (β = 0·420, P = 0·004) at the 14 % diaphyseal site, and BMC (β = 0·309, P = 0·009) and stress–strain index of the polaris axis (β = 0·314, P = 0·006) at the 66 % diaphyseal site pre-IMT. No significant relationships between serum Mg and bone measures were observed in males. Findings suggest that serum Mg may be modulated by Ca/vitamin D intake and may impact tibial bone health during training in female military recruits.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Monte Carlo method for constructing confidence intervals with unconstrained and constrained nuisance parameters in the NOvA experiment

Measuring observables to constrain models using maximum-likelihood estimation is fundamental to many physics experiments. Wilks' theorem provides a simple way to construct confidence intervals on model parameters, but it only applies under certain conditions. These conditions, such as nested hypotheses and unbounded parameters, are often violated in neutrino oscillation measurements and other experimental scenarios. Monte Carlo methods can address these issues, albeit at increased computational cost. In the presence of nuisance parameters, however, the best way to implement a Monte Carlo method is ambiguous. Furthermore, this paper documents the method selected by the NOvA experiment, the profile construction. It presents the toy studies that informed the choice of method, details of its implementation, and tests performed to validate it. It also includes some practical considerations which may be of use to others choosing to use the profile construction.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

First detection of the BAO signal from early DESI data

We present the first detection of the baryon acoustic oscillations (BAOs) signal obtained using unblinded data collected during the initial 2 months of operations of the Stage-IV ground-based Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). From a selected sample of 261 291 luminous red galaxies spanning the redshift interval 0.4 < z < 1.1 and covering 1651 square degrees with a 57.9 per cent completeness level, we report a ∼5σ level BAO detection and the measurement of the BAO location at a precision of 1.7 per cent. Using a bright galaxy sample of 109 523 galaxies in the redshift range 0.1 < z < 0.5, over 3677 square degrees with a 50.0 per cent completeness, we also detect the BAO feature at ∼3σ significance with a 2.6 per cent precision. These first BAO measurements represent an important milestone, acting as a quality control on the optimal performance of the complex robotically actuated, fibre-fed DESI spectrograph, as well as an early validation of the DESI spectroscopic pipeline and data management system. Based on these first promising results, we forecast that DESI is on target to achieve a high-significance BAO detection at sub-per cent precision with the completed 5-yr survey data, meeting the top-level science requirements on BAO measurements. This exquisite level of precision will set new standards in cosmology and confirm DESI as the most competitive BAO experiment for the remainder of this decade.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Newly acquired core enhances geologic understanding of the northern Paradox Basin Cane Creek play, southeastern Utah

The Cane Creek interval is an emerging unconventional heterolithic play within the Pennsylvanian Paradox Formation of the northern Paradox Basin, southeastern Utah. Structural controls (basement uplifts, salt movement, faults, fractures) likely control production from the Cane Creek, where total oil production of ~10 MMBO is just a fraction of current estimates of the undiscovered resource (up to 1.2 BBOE). Oil production has been most successful from unstimulated horizontal wells in the Cane Creek Unit in the central play area, whereas areas to the north (Greentown and Gunnison Valley) have to date proven to be largely unproductive from vertical and horizontal wells drilled without the benefit of 3D seismic or the deployment of modern hydraulic fracturing techniques. However, the limited historical drilling has shown significant promise (e.g., significant shows). The lack of core data in the northern part of the play has impeded thorough assessment of reservoir quality, character, and lithological facies heterogeneity. The Cane Creek is informally divided into three distinct zones. The upper A and basal C zones are composed of fabric destructive and wavy bedded anhydrite, dolomitic mudstone, and organic-rich algal laminated mudstones (source rock). The middle B zone is generally wave rippled and burrowed, low-permeability sandstone-siltstone (reservoir) with subordinate displacive anhydrite. Recent potash cores collected from the Salt Valley anticline near Crescent Junction, Utah (but east of the main play area), show thicker reservoir sandstone/siltstone packages (~40 ft) in the B zone, and parts of the C zone, in the northern part of the Paradox Basin in comparison to the central (~35 ft) and southern (~30 ft) areas. Source rock analyses from northern core/cuttings also indicate that it is well positioned within the oil window (VRo ~0.8), with thin organic-rich mudstone beds containing up to 20 wt% TOC. Because the siliciclastic reservoir rocks have low permeabilities (0.009–0.202 mD) and variable porosities (6–17%) due to dolomite-anhydrite cement, naturally occurring and possibly stimulated fractures may be essential for hydrocarbon recovery. To better understand the northern part of the Cane Creek play, a new core was obtained from the research stratigraphic well State 16-2 (January 2021). Details from this new core will help characterize reservoir quality via core analyses, petrography, fracture orientations, geomechanics, and correlation of facies and depositional trends. Additionally, an evaluation of matrix porosity/permeability will be conducted to determine its contribution to productivity.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2020

NNSS Soils Monitoring: Plutonium Valley (CAU 366) FY2019

Desert Research Institute (DRI) conducted a field assessment of the potential for radionuclide-contaminated soil to be transported from the Plutonium Valley Dispersion Sites Contamination Area (CA) because of both wind and storm water runoff. This activity supported U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Environmental Management Nevada Program (EM NV) efforts to establish post-closure monitoring plans for the Plutonium Valley Dispersion Sites Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 366. The DRI task was intended to identify the likely mechanism(s) of transport and determine the meteorological conditions that might cause the movement of radionuclide-contaminated soils. The emphasis of the work was on collecting sediment transported by channelized storm runoff and measuring airborne dust concentrations and associated wind conditions. These data will facilitate an appropriate post-closure monitoring program. In 2011, DRI installed meteorological monitoring stations north and south of the Plutonium Valley CA—known as Pu Valley North and Pu Valley South, respectively—as well as a fluvial sediment sampling station within the CA. Since installation, temperature, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, precipitation, solar radiation, barometric pressure, soil temperature, volumetric soil moisture content, and airborne particulate concentrations have been collected at both meteorological stations. The maximum, minimum, and average or total (as appropriate) for each of these parameters were recorded for each 10-minute interval. The sediment sampling station included an automatically activated sampling pump with collection bottles for suspended sediment, which was activated when sufficient flow was present in the channel, and passive traps for bedload material that was transported down the channel during runoff events. This report presents data collected from these stations during fiscal year (FY) 2019. During the FY2019 (October 1, 2018, through September 30, 2019) reporting period, the warmest month was July and the coldest month was February. Monthly total solar radiation was highest in June or July (depending on the station) and lowest in December. Monthly mean wind speeds were highest during February. At the Pu Valley North station, winds were commonly northerly, northwesterly, and southerly. At the Pu Valley South station, the wind direction was more variable and winds frequently came from most directions, excluding westerly and northwesterly winds. Winds above 15.0 miles per hour (mph) (24.1 kilometers per hour [km/hr]) were frequently southerly at both stations, and less-frequent strong winds were northerly (at the Pu Valley South station) or northwesterly (at the Pu Valley North station). Monthly average relative humidity ranged from 18 percent in August to 62 percent in January and February. Monthly total precipitation ranged from zero at both stations in September to 2.23 inches (in) (56.6 millimeters [mm]) during February at the Pu Valley South station and 2.09 in (53.1 mm) during March at the Pu Valley North station. From October 1, 2018, through September 30, 2019, the total precipitation was 8.23 in (209 mm) and 8.15 in (207 mm) at the Pu Valley South and Pu Valley North stations, respectively. The largest daily precipitation totals of 1.46 in (37.1 mm) and 1.14 in (29.0 mm) occurred at the Pu Valley South and Pu Valley North stations, respectively, on March 6, 2019. However, the ISCO autosampler was not activated during any storm event in FY2019 because the channel water depth measurements were insufficient for suspended sediment sample collection. Additionally, because no significant flow through the channel was indicated, no bedload samples were collected. Light breezes of 0.0 mph to 5.0 mph (0.0 km/hr to 8.0 km/hr) occurred most frequently (approximately 55 percent to 57 percent of the time). The frequency of occurrence diminished exponentially as the wind speed increased such that winds in excess of 25.0 mph (40.2 km/hr) occurred less than 0.01 percent of the time. Winds in excess of 15.0 mph (24.1 km/hr) were most commonly southerly, which is likely controlled by the topography of the valley because topographic highs define the east and west sides of the valley and converge toward the north.The concentrations of PM2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤2.5 micrometers [μm]) and PM10 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm) in the air generally increase as wind speed increases. However, the particle profiler at the Pu Valley South station regularly malfunctioned, which resulted in poor data quality and a limited period of record within FY2019. Therefore, discussion of the annual dust observations is mostly limited to the Pu Valley North station. At the Pu Valley North station, significant increases in windblown dust concentrations were observed when wind speeds exceeded 15.0 mph (24.1 km/hr), especially during southerly winds. When all wind speeds were considered, high dust concentrations at the Pu Valley North station were frequently associated with northerly, northwesterly, or southerly winds. The majority of PM10 transport at the Pu Valley North station occurred when winds were blowing northerly and northwesterly because of the high frequency of winds up to 15.0 mph (24.1 km/hr). The ratio of PM10 to PM2.5 is a qualitative indicator of the proximity of dust sources to the observation point and the values of the PM10 to PM2.5 ratio tend to be higher nearer to the source. The PM10 to PM2.5 ratio increased from 1.2 to 2.8 with higher wind speeds at the Pu Valley North station. This increase suggests that some locally sourced PM10 was present in the air when local winds exceeded 15.0 mph (24.1 km/hr). Local dust suspension is interpreted during major dust events when peaks in the PM10 to PM2.5 ratio occur simultaneously with the maximum wind speed and the peak PM10 concentration. Analysis of the five major dust events in FY2019 revealed that northerly winds were dominant in three events and southerly winds were dominant in two events. Local suspension of dust within Plutonium Valley is suspected to have occurred during two of the five major events (April 9, 2019, and September 28 to 29, 2019), and a nonlocal source of dust is presumed for the three other major dust events (October 14, 2018; May 16, 2019; and September 2, 2019). The three suspected regional dust transport events exhibited winds that typically did not exceed the 15.0 mph (24.1 km/hr) wind speed threshold for local dust transport and featured PM10 to PM2.5 ratios that indicate large-scale regional dust transport. Similar event characteristics (e.g., wind speed and PM10 concentration) were observed at air monitoring stations approximately 70 mi (113 km) to the northwest within the Tonopah Test Range (TTR). Therefore, these three regional events may not reflect transport from the Plutonium Valley CA. Routine monitoring of meteorological and hydrologic parameters at Plutonium Valley has been discontinued at the request of EM NV, effective at the conclusion of FY2019. Environmental data acquisition has been completed, and both Pu Valley North and Pu Valley South meteorological stations within Plutonium Valley as well as the ISCO autosampler station within the CA were removed on October 14, 2019.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Enhancement of Optical Efficiency of CSP Mirrors for Reducing O&M Cost via Near-Continuous Operation of Self-Cleaning Electrodynamic Screens (EDS). Final Report

Over the past decade, techno-economical advancements in solar energy systems, particularly the improvement in the conversion efficiency of PV modules made with mono-crystalline silicon solar cells from 12% to 20%, as well as the cost reduction in manufacturing by a factor of about 10%, have made it possible to achieve a levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) in PV plants that is comparable to, or less than, the cost of deriving electricity from fossil fuels. Operating PV plants in mid-latitude sun-belt regions, where the solar irradiance level is highest, provides a high annual energy-yield (kWh/kWp) due to two factors: (1) the availability of predictable high solar irradiance throughout the year with the fewest interruptions in solar flux from clouds and rain, and (2) the increased conversion efficiency of crystalline solar cells, as recombination loss has decreased with increased intensity of the sunlight that illuminates the silicon solar cells. Semi-arid and desert regions, however, are plagued by high atmospheric dust concentrations and frequent sand storms. The deposition of a layer of dust on the optical surfaces of solar collectors such as PV modules and concentrating mirrors reduces the transmission efficiency of sunlight that actually reaches the solar cells or receivers, resulting in high energy-yield soiling loss. There are two major cost components to operating a solar plant: (1) installation costs, and (2) operation-and-maintenance (O&M) costs. There is no fuel cost; hence operating a solar plant in a semi-arid or desert region provides high returns on investment if soiling losses are mitigated via efficient cleaning methods and optimized cleaning frequency. If solar collectors are not cleaned, the accumulation of dust layers on solar collectors may cause the operation of such plants in arid regions to become economically unviable. Washing solar collectors with water and detergent, as is most commonly done now, is an efficient method for cleaning. The conventional approach in utility-scale solar plants is to use a large truck with a water tank and pump system for spraying deionized water on the surface of the solar collectors. Robotic cleaning with brushes, used for many solar plants, requires lesser water for cleaning. The water consumed using semi-automated cleaning of PV modules in utility-scale solar plants is approximately 2 liters/m 2 per cleaning cycle. The total optical surface area of the solar collectors in 1 TW-scale solar installation will be more than 3 × 109 m 2 ; hence an enormous amount of water be needed for cleaning. There simply is not enough fresh water in the sun-belt areas of the world for predicted cleaning needs. In solar power plants, the estimated cost of cleaning solar collectors includes expenses related to the equipment used, labor, cost of transportation of water, the energy required for cleaning, plus ancillary costs whereas the cost of water is not considered. The water used is obtained from sources located close to plant sites, unmindful of the environmental and societal impact as the power plants are oftentimes located in regions that face severe drought. This practice is very similar to the cost calculations in deriving the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) in conventional power plants based on burning fossil fuel such as coal and gas, while disregarding the cost of climate change and health effects. Unless a water-free or low-water cleaning method is established, the expansion of solar plants may lose public support in areas suffering long intervals of drought. The goal of this research project has been the development and application of the Electrodynamic Screen (EDS) as a means for a water-free, scalable cleaning process applicable to solar-power installations, including rooftop applications. We describe here the development of an EDS film-based cleaning process as an emerging method for use on PV modules, parabolic troughs, and heliostats. This report aims to show the feasibility of integrating or retrofitting EDS films onto the optical surfaces of solar collectors (both PV and CSP) while maintaining high transmission or reflection efficiency. The cleaning action provided by the EDS film is an active method to remove dust deposits by electrodynamic force. Current lab-scale prototype EDS films, retrofitted onto solar panels and mirrors, have shown to be capable of maintaining optical transmission or specular-reflection efficiencies higher than 90% of initial values under clean conditions. The optical surfaces of solar collectors laminated with EDS films can remove more than 90% of deposited dust when the EDS is activated for less than two minutes. As an electrodynamic dust removal process, the EDS film-based method is designed primarily for the removal of dust in solar installations located in semi-arid and desert areas, where the atmosphere is often dry and dusty and rainfall is infrequent. While EDS film application minimizes water consumption and facilitates cleaning as frequently as needed, it has limitations in removing contaminants such as soot, organic pollutants deposited as fine films on the surface, and bird droppings. The dust removal efficiency of the EDS is maximum at relative humidity RH is 40 to 50% and decreases at when RH > 65%. Many solar plant sites undergo diurnal and seasonal cycles of high ambient, early afternoon temperatures and an RH that reaches the dew point early in the morning. These variations in atmospheric conditions do not limit the operation of the EDS film. This report presents a brief review of the progress and the potential of EDS film technology for mitigating the impact of dust on solar collectors via water-free cleaning, as well as current technical challenges regarding efficiency and durability. Our experimental data on the performance of EDS films show that: (1) the dust-removal efficiency (DRE) can reach levels higher than 90%, (2) the specular reflectivity (SR) of EDS film-laminated second-surface mirrors reach levels in excess of 90%, (3) the specular reflectivity restoration (SRR) can exceed 90%, (4) the output-power restoration (OPR) of PV modules can exceed 95%, and (5) the optical transmission efficiency (TE) of the EDS films can be greater than 90%. Working with Sandia National Laboratories (NM), Corning Research and Development Corporation (NY), Eastman Kodak (NY), Tomark-Worthen Industries (NH), and EDS Chile SPA (Chile), we have produced EDS film-laminated PV modules and demonstrated their self-cleaning functions without requiring water. We have demonstrated that the operational range of EDS films will cover the expected ambient temperature of solar fields at RH cycling varying from 20 to 95% as long as the EDS films are activated in the RH range 20 to 50%. (Typical solar-field climates in deserts and semi-arid lands often reach near dew point in coastal areas.) Our experiments on the application of hydrophobic-fluorinated nanoparticle coatings on EDS film surfaces show that the EDS operational range can be extended to higher RH levels that approach the dew point. At Eastman Kodak, as one of our industrial partners, we were able to establish a process for manufacturing EDS films using flexographic printing of the electrodes onto transparent polymer films. This process utilizes an existing manufacturing line at Eastman Kodak that allows fabrication of medium-scale EDS films (26 cm × 30 cm). The manufacturing process has the capacity to produce EDS films at high production speeds. The medium-scale EDS films that have been printed at Kodak were evaluated in the lab at Boston University. The EDS films produced at Kodak were laminated at Tomark-Worthen using an industrial scale vacuum laminator to produce EDS film stacks, which can be affixed onto the optical surfaces of PV modules or concentrating mirrors. The EDS film stack consists of the EDS films that have Willow® Glass (WG) which has a thickness of 100 μm as the front surface. The WG sheets obtained from Corning Research and Development Corporation are customized in size and shape to cover the active area of the EDS films. The back surface of the EDS film stack is integrated onto the optical surface of the solar panel or mirror using optically clear adhesive (OCA) films or silicone adhesives. The OCA films (thickness 25 μm) are produced by 3M. The EDS film stacks have the architecture: WG/OCA/EDS Film/OCA/ over PV module or solar mirror. The power-supply units needed for activating the electrodes of the EDS film were designed and produced at Boston University. These power supply units provide three-phase, 1.2 kV voltage pulses at a very low current (micro-ampere) level and at a low frequency (≈ 5 Hz). The voltage pulses are applied to the electrodes in a sequence such that the train of pulses resembles a unidirectional traveling wave of electrical field on the surface of the EDS film. The dust particles on the surface become charged electrostatically and are levitated by the Coulomb force. The lateral sweeping action of the traveling electric field created by the three-phase voltages pulses then sweeps the dust off the surface. The energy consumed by the EDS electrodes is less than 0.2 Wh/m 2 /cleaning cycle, enabling energy-efficient restoration of output power (OPR) of PV module or specular reflectivity restoration (SRR) for solar mirrors. The EDS system consists of (1) an EDS film stack laminated onto the solar collectors, (2) connection of the EDS film to its power supply unit and (3) Interconnection of the power supply to PV modules or solar mirrors. Design, construction and assessment of field-testing units that have EDS stack laminated PV modules for evaluating the performance of the EDS films in solar fields is being carried out at BU. Our progress under this project, aimed at the advancement of EDS film technology, has reached DOE Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 6. Based on the extensive laboratory evaluations and limited field trials, as well as contacts with potential users, we believe that the technology has reached its commercial stage. We are conducting a cost analysis using the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) System Advisory Model (SAM) and are preparing for field trials of EDS films in different solar fields in the US, Chile, India and in the Middle East. A brief description of EDS film performance, construction and testing of the field-test unit, autonomous operation of the field-test unit for evaluating EDS performance in increasing energy yield, associated revenue savings, and water conservation is presented.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗