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Design for Reliability and Safety Approach for the NASA New Launch Vehicle

The United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is in the midst of a space exploration program intended for sending crew and cargo to the international Space Station (ISS), to the moon, and beyond. This program is called Constellation. As part of the Constellation program, NASA is developing new launch vehicles aimed at significantly increase safety and reliability, reduce the cost of accessing space, and provide a growth path for manned space exploration. Achieving these goals requires a rigorous process that addresses reliability, safety, and cost upfront and throughout all the phases of the life cycle of the program. This paper discusses the "Design for Reliability and Safety" approach for the NASA new crew launch vehicle called ARES I. The ARES I is being developed by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in support of the Constellation program. The ARES I consists of three major Elements: A solid First Stage (FS), an Upper Stage (US), and liquid Upper Stage Engine (USE). Stacked on top of the ARES I is the Crew exploration vehicle (CEV). The CEV consists of a Launch Abort System (LAS), Crew Module (CM), Service Module (SM), and a Spacecraft Adapter (SA). The CEV development is being led by NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC). Designing for high reliability and safety require a good integrated working environment and a sound technical design approach. The "Design for Reliability and Safety" approach addressed in this paper discusses both the environment and the technical process put in place to support the ARES I design. To address the integrated working environment, the ARES I project office has established a risk based design group called "Operability Design and Analysis" (OD&A) group. This group is an integrated group intended to bring together the engineering, design, and safety organizations together to optimize the system design for safety, reliability, and cost. On the technical side, the ARES I project has, through the OD&A environment, implemented a probabilistic approach to analyze and evaluate design uncertainties and understand their impact on safety, reliability, and cost. This paper focuses on the use of the various probabilistic approaches that have been pursued by the ARES I project. Specifically, the paper discusses an integrated functional probabilistic analysis approach that addresses upffont some key areas to support the ARES I Design Analysis Cycle (DAC) pre Preliminary Design (PD) Phase. This functional approach is a probabilistic physics based approach that combines failure probabilities with system dynamics and engineering failure impact models to identify key system risk drivers and potential system design requirements. The paper also discusses other probabilistic risk assessment approaches planned by the ARES I project to support the PD phase and beyond.

Safie, Fayssal, M.↗

Constructing an AIRS Climatology for Data Visualization and Analysis to Serve the Climate Science and Application Communities

The NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) is the home of processing, archiving, and distribution services for NASA sounders: the present Aqua AIRS mission and the succeeding SNPP CrIS mission. The AIRS mission is entering its 15th year of global observations of the atmospheric state, including temperature and humidity profiles, outgoing longwave radiation, cloud properties, and trace gases. The GES DISC, in collaboration with the AIRS Project, released product from the version 6 algorithm in early 2013. Giovanni, a Web-based application developed by the GES DISC, provides a simple and intuitive way to visualize, analyze, and access vast amounts of Earth science remote sensing data without having to download the data. Most important variables from version 6 AIRS product are available in Giovanni. We are developing a climatology product using 14-year AIRS retrievals. The study can be a good start for the long term climatology from NASA sounders: the AIRS and the succeeding CrIS. This presentation will show the impacts to the climatology product from different aggregation methods. The climatology can serve climate science and application communities in data visualization and analysis, which will be demonstrated using a variety of functions in version 4 Giovanni. The highlights of these functions include user-defined monthly and seasonal climatology, inter annual seasonal time series, anomaly analysis.

AIRS↗

More Than A SketchUp

This 2014 summer internship assignment at John F. Kennedy Space Center (K.S.C) was conducted with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Engineering and Technology (NE) group in support of the Control and Data Systems Division (NE-C) within the Test, Operations & Support Software Engineering Branch (NE-C2). The primary focus of this project was to assist Branch Chief Laurie B. Griffin, to support NASA's Small Payload Launch Integrated Testing Services (SPLITS) mission, by mastering the capabilities of 3-D modeling software called SketchUp. I used SketchUp to create a virtual environment for different laboratories of the NE-00 Division. My mission was to have these models uploaded into a K.S.C Partnerships Website and be used as a visual aid to viewers who browsed the site. The leads of this project were Kay L. Craig, Business and Industry Specialist (AD-A) and Steven E. Cain, (FA-C). I teamed with fellow intern Tait Sorenson of the Flight Structures and Thermal Protection Systems Branch (NE-M5) and met with many K.S.C lab managers willing to display their lab's structure and capabilities. The information collected during these lab tours was vital to the building of the K.S.C Partnerships Website. To accomplish this goal Sorenson and I later teamed with fellow Marketing intern Marlee Pereda-Ramos, of the Spaceport Planning Office In Center Planning And Development (AD-A) Along with Ramos, Tait and I toured an array of laboratories and got first hand exposure to their functions and capabilities.

Trimble Corporation↗

The Effect of Heating on the Degradation of Ground Laboratory and Space Irradiated Teflon(r) FEP

The outer most layer of the multilayer insulation (MLI) blankets on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) is back surface aluminized Teflon(R) FEP (fluorinated ethylene propylene). As seen by data collected after each of the three servicing missions and as observed during the second servicing mission (SM2), the FEP has become embrittled in the space environment, leading to degradation of the mechanical properties and severe on-orbit cracking of the FEP. During SM2, a sample of aluminized-FEP was retrieved from HST that had cracked and curled, exposing its aluminum backside to space. Because of the difference in optical properties between FEP and aluminum, this insulation piece reached 200 C on-orbit, which is significantly higher than the nominal MLI temperature extreme of 50 C. This piece was more brittle than other retrieved material from the first and third servicing missions (SM1 and SM3A, respectively). Due to this observation and the fact that Teflon thermal shields on the solar array bi-stems were heated on-orbit to 130 C, experiments have been conducted to determine the effect of heating on the degradation of FEP that has been irradiated in a ground laboratory facility or in space on HST. Teflon FEP samples were X-ray irradiated in a high vacuum facility in order to simulate the damage caused by radiation in the space environment. Samples of pristine FEP, X-ray irradiated FEP and FEP retrieved from the HST during SM3A were heat treated from 50 to 200 C at 25 intervals in a high vacuum facility and then tensile tested. In addition, samples were tested in a density gradient column to determine the effect of the radiation and heating on the density of FEP. Results indicate that although heating does not degrade the tensile properties of non-irradiated Teflon, there is a significant dependence of the percent elongation at failure of irradiated Teflon as a function of heating temperature. Irradiated Teflon was found to undergo increasing degradation in the elongation at failure as temperature was increased from room temperature to 200 C. Rate of degradation changes, which were consistent with the glass I transition temperatures for FEP, appeared to be present in both tensile and density data. The results indicate the significance of the on-orbit temperature of Teflon FEP with respect to its degradation in the low Earth orbital space environment.

deGroh, Kim K.↗

Acoustical Testing Laboratory Developed to Support the Low-Noise Design of Microgravity Space Flight Hardware

The NASA John H. Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field has designed and constructed an Acoustical Testing Laboratory to support the low-noise design of microgravity space flight hardware. This new laboratory will provide acoustic emissions testing and noise control services for a variety of customers, particularly for microgravity space flight hardware that must meet International Space Station limits on noise emissions. These limits have been imposed by the space station to support hearing conservation, speech communication, and safety goals as well as to prevent noise-induced vibrations that could impact microgravity research data. The Acoustical Testing Laboratory consists of a 23 by 27 by 20 ft (height) convertible hemi/anechoic chamber and separate sound-attenuating test support enclosure. Absorptive 34-in. fiberglass wedges in the test chamber provide an anechoic environment down to 100 Hz. A spring-isolated floor system affords vibration isolation above 3 Hz. These criteria, along with very low design background levels, will enable the acquisition of accurate and repeatable acoustical measurements on test articles, up to a full space station rack in size, that produce very little noise. Removable floor wedges will allow the test chamber to operate in either a hemi/anechoic or anechoic configuration, depending on the size of the test article and the specific test being conducted. The test support enclosure functions as a control room during normal operations but, alternatively, may be used as a noise-control enclosure for test articles that require the operation of noise-generating test support equipment.

Cooper, Beth A.↗

The Effect of Heating on the Degradation of Ground Laboratory and Space Irradiated Teflon® FEP

The outer most layer of the multilayer insulation (MLI) blankets on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) is back surface aluminized Teflon® FEP (fluorinated ethylene propylene). As seen by data collected after each of the three servicing missions and as observed during the second servicing mission (SM2), the FEP has become embrittled in the space environment, leading to degradation of the mechanical properties and severe on-orbit cracking of the FEP. During SM2, a sample of aluminized-FEP was retrieved from HST that had cracked and curled, exposing its aluminum backside to space. Because of the difference in optical properties between FEP and aluminum, this insulation piece reached 200 C on-orbit, which is significantly higher than the nominal MLI temperature extreme of 50 C. This piece was more brittle than other retrieved material from the first and third servicing missions (SM1 and SM3A, respectively). Due to this observation and the fact that Teflon thermal shields on the solar array bi-stems were heated on-orbit to 130 C, experiments have been conducted to determine the effect of heating on the degradation of FEP that has been irradiated in a ground laboratory facility or in space on HST. Teflon FEP samples were x-ray irradiated in a high vacuum facility in order to simulate the damage caused by radiation in the space environment. Samples of pristine FEP, x-ray irradiated FEP and FEP retrieved from the HST during SM3A were heat treated from 50 to 200 C at 25intervals in a high vacuum facility and then tensile tested. In addition, samples were tested in a density gradient column to determine the effect of the radiation and heating on the density of FEP. Results indicate that although heating does not degrade the tensile properties of non-irradiated Teflon, there is a significant dependence of the percent elongation at failure of irradiated Teflon as a function of heating temperature. Irradiated Teflon was found to undergo increasing degradation in the elongation at failure as temperature was increased from room temperature to 200 C. Rate of degradation changes, which were consistent with the glass I transition temperatures for FEP, appeared to be present in both tensile and density data. The results indicate the significance of the on-orbit temperature of Teflon FEP with respect to its degradation in the low Earth orbital space environment.

Hubble Space Telescope↗

jasonSWIR Calibration of Spectralon Reflectance Factor

Satellite instruments operating in the reflective solar wavelength region require accurate and precise determination of the Bidirectional Reflectance Factor (BRF) of laboratory-based diffusers used in their pre-flight and on-orbit radiometric calibrations. BRF measurements are required throughout the reflected-solar spectrum from the ultraviolet through the shortwave infrared. Spectralon diffusers are commonly used as a reflectance standard for bidirectional and hemispherical geometries. The Diffuser Calibration Laboratory (DCaL) at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center is a secondary calibration facility with reflectance measurements traceable to those made by the Spectral Tri-function Automated Reference Reflectometer (STARR) facility at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). For more than two decades, the DCaL has provided numerous NASA projects with BRF data in the ultraviolet (UV), visible (VIS) and the Near infraRed (NIR) spectral regions. Presented in this paper are measurements of BRF from 1475nm to 1625nm obtained using an indium gallium arsenide detector and a tunable coherent light source. The sample was a 2 inch diameter, 99% white Spectralon target. The BRF results are discussed and compared to empirically generated data from a model based on NIST certified values of 6deg directional/hemispherical spectral reflectance factors from 900nm to 2500nm. Employing a new NIST capability for measuring bidirectional reflectance using a cooled, extended InGaAs detector, BRF calibration measurements of the same sample were also made using NIST's STARR from 1475nm to 1625nm at an incident angle of 0deg and at viewing angles of 40deg, 45deg, and 50deg. The total combined uncertainty for BRF in this ShortWave Infrared (SWIR) range is less than 1%. This measurement capability will evolve into a BRF calibration service in SWIR region in support of NASA remote sensing missions. Keywords: BRF, BRDF, Calibration, Spectralon, Reflectance, Remote Sensing.

Georgiev, Georgi T.↗

Design and evaluation of a cyber‐physical testbed for improving attack resilience of power systems

Abstract A power system is a complex cyber‐physical system whose security is critical to its function. A major challenge is to model, analyse and visualise the communication backbone of the power systems concerning cyber threats. To achieve this, the design and evaluation of a cyber‐physical power system (CPPS) testbed called Resilient Energy Systems Lab (RESLab) are presented to capture realistic cyber, physical, and protection system features. RESLab is architected to be a fundamental platform for studying and improving the resilience of complex CPPS to cyber threats. The cyber network is emulated using Common Open Research Emulator (CORE), which acts as a gateway for the physical and protection devices to communicate. The physical grid is simulated in the dynamic time frame using Power World Dynamic Studio (PWDS). The protection components are modelled with both PWDS and physical devices including the SEL Real‐Time Automation Controller (RTAC). Distributed Network Protocol 3 (DNP3) is used to monitor and control the grid. Then, the design is exemplified and the tools are validated. This work presents four case studies on cyberattack and defence using RESLab, where we demonstrate false data and command injection using Man‐in‐the‐Middle and Denial of Service attacks and validate them on a large‐scale synthetic electric grid.

Sahu, Abhijeet↗

Measurement of Residual Flexibility for Substructures Having Prominent Flexible Interfaces

Verification of a dynamic model of a constrained structure requires a modal survey test of the physical structure and subsequent modification of the model to obtain the best agreement possible with test data. Constrained-boundary or fixed-base testing has historically been the most common approach for verifying constrained mathematical models, since the boundary conditions of the test article are designed to match the actual constraints in service. However, there are difficulties involved with fixed-base testing, in some cases making the approach impractical. It is not possible to conduct a truly fixed-base test due to coupling between the test article and the fixture. In addition, it is often difficult to accurately simulate the actual boundary constraints, and the cost of designing and constructing the fixture may be prohibitive. For use when fixed-base testing proves impractical or undesirable, alternate free-boundary test methods have been investigated, including the residual flexibility technique. The residual flexibility approach has been treated analytically in considerable detail and has had limited frequency response measurements for the method. This concern is well-justified for a number of reasons. First, residual flexibilities are very small numbers, typically on the order of 1.0E-6 in/lb for translational diagonal terms, and orders of magnitude smaller for off-diagonal values. This poses difficulty in obtaining accurate and noise-free measurements, especially for points removed from the excitation source. A second difficulty encountered in residual measurements lies in obtaining a clean residual function in the process of subtracting synthesized modal data from a measured response function. Inaccuracies occur since modes are not subtracted exactly, but only to the accuracy of the curve fits for each mode; these errors are compounded with increasing distance from the excitation point. In this paper, the residual flexibility method is applied to a simple structure in both test and analysis. Measured and predicted residual functions are compared, and regions of poor data in the measured curves are described. It is found that for accurate residual measurements, frequency response functions having prominent stiffness lines in the acceleration/force format are needed. The lack of such stiffness lines increases measurement errors. Interface drive point frequency respose functions for shuttle orbiter payloads exhibit dominant stiffness lines, making the residual test approach a good candidate for payload modal tests when constrained tests are inappropriate. Difficulties in extracting a residual flexibility value from noisy test data are discussed. It is shown that use of a weighted second order least-squares curve fit of the measured residual function allows identification of residual flexibility that compares very well with predictions for the simple structure. This approach also provides an estimate of second order residual mass effects.

Tinker, Michael L.↗

Tool for Automated Retrieval of Generic Event Tracks (TARGET)

Methods have been developed to identify and track tornado-producing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) automatically over the continental United States, in order to facilitate systematic studies of these powerful and often destructive events. Several data sources were combined to ensure event identification accuracy. Records of watches and warnings issued by National Weather Service (NWS), and tornado locations and tracks from the Tornado History Project (THP) were used to locate MCSs in high-resolution precipitation observations and GOES infrared (11-micron) Rapid Scan Operation (RSO) imagery. Thresholds are then applied to the latter two data sets to define MCS events and track their developments. MCSs produce a broad range of severe convective weather events that are significantly affecting the living conditions of the populations exposed to them. Understanding how MCSs grow and develop could help scientists improve their weather prediction models, and also provide tools to decision-makers whose goals are to protect populations and their property. Associating storm cells across frames of remotely sensed images poses a difficult problem because storms evolve, split, and merge. Any storm-tracking method should include the following processes: storm identification, storm tracking, and quantification of storm intensity and activity. The spatiotemporal coordinates of the tracks will enable researchers to obtain other coincident observations to conduct more thorough studies of these events. In addition to their tracked locations, their areal extents, precipitation intensities, and accumulations all as functions of their evolutions in time were also obtained and recorded for these events. All parameters so derived can be catalogued into a moving object database (MODB) for custom queries. The purpose of this software is to provide a generalized, cross-platform, pluggable tool for identifying events within a set of scientific data based upon specified criteria with the possibility of storing identified events into a searchable database. The core of the application uses an implementation of the connected component labeling (CCL) algorithm to identify areas of interest, then uses a set of criteria to establish spatial and temporal relationships between identified components. The CCL algorithm is used for identifying objects within images for computer vision. This application applies it to scientific data sets using arbitrary criteria. The most novel concept was applying a generalized CCL implementation to scientific data sets for establishing events both spatially and temporally. The combination of several existing concepts (pluggable components, generalized CCL algorithm, etc.) into one application is also novel. In addition, how the system is designed, i.e., its extensibility with pluggable components, and its configurability with a simple configuration file, is innovative. This allows the system to be applied to new scenarios with ease.

Clune, Thomas↗

Turbine Airfoil With CMC Leading-Edge Concept Tested Under Simulated Gas Turbine Conditions

Silicon-based ceramics have been proposed as component materials for gas turbine engine hot-sections. When the Navy s Harrier fighter experienced engine (Pegasus F402) failure because of leading-edge durability problems on the second-stage high-pressure turbine vane, the Office of Naval Research came to the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field for test support in evaluating a concept for eliminating the vane-edge degradation. The High Pressure Burner Rig (HPBR) was selected for testing since it could provide temperature, pressure, velocity, and combustion gas compositions that closely simulate the engine environment. The study focused on equipping the stationary metal airfoil (Pegasus F402) with a ceramic matrix composite (CMC) leading-edge insert and evaluating the feasibility and benefits of such a configuration. The test exposed the component, with and without the CMC insert, to the harsh engine environment in an unloaded condition, with cooling to provide temperature relief to the metal blade underneath. The insert was made using an AlliedSignal Composites, Inc., enhanced HiNicalon (Nippon Carbon Co. LTD., Yokohama, Japan) fiber-reinforced silicon carbide composite (SiC/SiC CMC) material fabricated via chemical vapor infiltration. This insert was 45-mils thick and occupied a recessed area in the leading edge and shroud of the vane. It was designed to be free floating with an end cap design. The HPBR tests provided a comparative evaluation of the temperature response and leading-edge durability and included cycling the airfoils between simulated idle, lift, and cruise flight conditions. In addition, the airfoils were aircooled, uniquely instrumented, and exposed to the exact set of internal and external conditions, which included gas temperatures in excess of 1370 C (2500 F). In addition to documenting the temperature response of the metal vane for comparison with the CMC, a demonstration of improved leading-edge durability was a primary goal. First, the metal vane was tested for a total of 150 cycles. Both the leading edge and trailing edge of the blade exhibited fatigue cracking and burn-through similar to the failures experienced in service by the F402 engine. Next, an airfoil, fitted with the ceramic leading edge insert, was exposed for 200 cycles. The temperature response of those HPBR cycles indicated a reduced internal metal temperature, by as much as 600 F at the midspan location for the same surface temperature (2100 F). After testing, the composite insert appeared intact, with no signs of failure on either the vane s leading or trailing edge. Only a slight oxide scale, as would be expected, was noted on the insert. Overall, the CMC insert performed similarly to a thick thermal barrier coating. With a small air gap between the metal and the SiC/SiC leading edge, heat transfer from the CMC to the metal alloy was low, effectively lowering the temperatures. The insert's performance has proven that an uncooled CMC can be engineered and designed to withstand the thermal up-shock experienced during the severe lift conditions in the Pegasus engine. The design of the leading-edge insert, which minimized thermal stresses in the SiC/SiC CMC, showed that the CMC/metal assembly can be engineered to be a functioning component.

Robinson, R. Craig↗

Data Interfaces for Automated Vehicle Services - A Municipality Perspective

As Automated Vehicle (AV) services proliferate, data sharing between AV operators and municipal agents is assuming greater importance. Information on the dynamic nature of the road system such as incidents to avoid, weather hazards (such as flooding), construction and detours, as well as active safety concerns (e.g. - riots) is important for AV operators. Such information cannot be directly sensed from a vehicle's sensor array, but instead must be communicated in a timely and trustworthy channel. Municipalities are interested in pushing this information to AV operators to support emergency response efforts, reduce traffic in construction zones, and generally improve operation of the system. Similarly, information on vehicle safety such as disengagements, as well as critical information on the use of roadway system (trips, origin and destination patterns) are important performance factors for municipalities to understand utilization and plan for appropriate infrastructure. As mobility shifts to on-demand options, the need for safe and coordinated pick-up and drop-off zones will increase (potentially reducing parking needs). For all of these reasons, communication flows between AV operators and municipalities are becoming increasingly important. This paper investigates the functions, emerging practices and protocols for sharing of such critical data, and identifies gaps in and challenges in existing practices. Additionally, case studies are used to highlight the impacts of data sharing between AV operators and municipalities.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA Accelerates SpaceCube Technology into Orbit

On May 11, 2009, STS-125 Space Shuttle Atlantis blasted off from Kennedy Space Center on a historic mission to service the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). In addition to sending up the hardware and tools required to repair the observatory, the servicing team at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center also sent along a complex experimental payload called Relative Navigation Sensors (RNS). The main objective of the RNS payload was to provide real-time image tracking of HST during rendezvous and docking operations. RNS was a complete success, and was brought to life by four Xilinx FPGAs (Field Programmable Gate Arrays) tightly packed into one integrated computer called SpaceCube. SpaceCube is a compact, reconfigurable, multiprocessor computing platform for space applications demanding extreme processing capabilities based on Xilinx Virtex 4 FX60 FPGAs. In a matter of months, the concept quickly went from the white board to a fully funded flight project. The 4-inch by 4-inch SpaceCube processor card was prototyped by a group of Goddard engineers using internal research funding. Once engineers were able to demonstrate the processing power of SpaceCube to NASA, HST management stood behind the product and invested in a flight qualified version, inserting it into the heart of the RNS system. With the determination of putting Xilinx into space, the team strengthened to a small army and delivered a fully functional, space qualified system to the mission.

Petrick, David↗

Postfire Biogeochemical Processes: Implications to Source Water Quality in Fire-Influenced Watersheds

Forested watersheds are instrumental in providing purified and reliable water to millions of people worldwide. The changing climate has increased the frequency and severity of global fire events. Forested watersheds and their ecosystem functions are greatly disrupted during fire activity. Postfire concerns in forested watersheds include unpredictable and potentially simultaneous alterations in source water quality and hydro-biogeochemical processes. Here, the degree of fire severity can complexly modify water quality through the production of fire-transformed constituents on the burned forest floor (i.e., nutrients, metal(loid)s, dissolved organic matter, and the formation of disinfection byproducts). Correspondingly, fire severity and postfire rainfall patterns can refine hydro-biogeochemical processes that influence the transport of the fire-transformed constituents (i.e., vegetation function, soil structure, hydrological pathways, and microbial communities). Postfire alterations to water quality and hydro-biogeochemical processes introduce further complexity with varying temporal influence, which ranges from months to decades. As postfire water quality and watershed response research progresses, it is essential to homogenize interdisciplinary expertise to bridge knowledge gaps between fields ranging from forest ecology, hydrology, microbiology, and geochemistry. A multidisciplinary approach in wildfire research will facilitate a comprehensive perception of the diverse water quality risks associated with fire activity and mitigate fire concerns on a global level.

Disinfection Byproducts↗

Fragmentation of faceted crystalline wires

The reduction of surface energy is a well-known driving force for the fragmentation of nanowires. Fragmentation can limit the service life of those small low-dimensional building blocks or can be controlled to induce beneficial shape changes. For isotropic surface energy, fragmentation is analogous to the classic Rayleigh-Plateau instability of liquid jets. However, commonly synthesized crystalline nanowires have strongly anisotropic surface energies and exhibit facets coinciding with cusps in the Wulff plot. Depending on growth orientation, different fragmentation behaviors have been seen in nanowires. Using phase-field simulations, we show that fragmentation of faceted nanowires with cubic crystal symmetry may occur by a finite-amplitude nonlinear instability, as opposed to a Rayleigh-Plateau-like linear instability, depending on nanowire growth orientation. Here, we carry out a weakly nonlinear analysis based on sharp interface theory to characterize the faceted nanowire shape corresponding to a surface-energy saddle point. The analysis predicts that the minimum amplitude of a periodic shape perturbation to trigger fragmentation increases with cusp strength but decreases inversely proportionally to the perturbation wavelength for long wavelengths, in good quantitative agreement with phase-field predictions. The results provide the theoretical foundation to predict nanowire stability as a function of length and surface energy in diverse applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

ICE Calculator 2: Final Report for Phase 1 and 2 of the National Initiative to Update the Interruption Cost Estimate (ICE) Calculator

ICE 2.0 Phase 2 Final Report In 2021, Berkeley Lab and Resource Innovations, Inc. launched the “ICE Calculator 2 Initiative” – a national study to refresh the underlying data and enhance the functionality of the ICE Calculator. The Initiative involves Berkeley Lab contracting with sponsoring utilities to administer identical, updated and comprehensive interruption cost surveys to statistically representative samples of each utility’s customers. Berkeley Lab and Resource Innovations then pool the survey results across the utilities and use them to update the analytical engines that drive the ICE Calculator. The ICE Calculator 2 Initiative is being conducted in phases. Each phase involves the administration of interruption cost surveys to the customers of sponsoring utilities, followed by an update to the ICE Calculator based on analysis of the pooled survey results. This report describes the activities and findings from Phase 1 and 2 of the ICE Calculator 2 Initiative. Phase 1 was sponsored by eight utilities: American Electric Power, Commonwealth Edison, Dominion Energy, Duke Energy, DTE Electric, Exelon, National Grid, and Puget Sound Energy. Phase 2 was sponsored by six utilities: Empire District Electric Company, Evergy Missouri, Pacific Gas & Electric, San Diego Gas & Electric, Southern California Edison, and Union Electric. Phase 1 and 2 involved 15 customer interruption cost survey activities representing a total of 30 electricity distribution service territories. ICE Calculator Version 2.0 and 2.2 Comparison This memorandum describes–at a high-level–the improvements in interruption cost estimates for the version 2.2 of the ICE Calculator (released February 2026) compared to version 2.0 (released in April 2025). Version 2.2 of the ICE Calculator corresponds to Phase 2 of the initiative, while version 2.0 corresponds to Phase 1. The improvements in version 2.2 result from both a significant increase in the number of customer responses that have been collected and the identification of seven additional factors that help estimate customer interruption costs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

High-Volume Airborne Fluids Handling Technologies to Fight Wildfires

NASA recently partnered with the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) on a project to examine mission suitability and recommend policies and procedures for the use of very large aerial firefighting aircraft such as the Boeing 747 and DC-10 aerial retardant delivery aircraft. The aircraft under study included a 10Tanker DC-10 and an Evergreen B-747. NASA's Dryden Flight Research Center and Ames Research Center worked with the USFS to help determine the safe flight envelope for these Very Large Air Tanker (VLAT) aircraft for the USFS and the Department of the Interior (DOI). This new generation of supertankers includes aircraft like these that have as much as four times the delivery capacity of the previous generation of aerial firefighting aircraft. Dryden performed operational test and evaluation assessments and reported findings and recommendations on these aircraft in cooperation with Ames. The team developed, implemented, and directed an evaluation test plan for use in flight test and in simulation. Ames provided support using pilot-in-the-loop simulations and coordinated simulator models, flight profiles, and data analysis with Dryden. The test plan was designed to evaluate the suitability of VLAT aircraft as a function of mission environment. Based on this analysis, NASA generated interim flight envelope limitations to enhance safety and operational utility in the fire-retardant delivery mission. These recommended flight limitations were adopted by the USFS. The 10Tanker DC-10 has been in use for several years with the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection(Cal-Fire), but until NASA took on the challenge of reviewing VLAT capabilities and limitations, the USFS was hesitant to add them to the federal wildfire arsenal. The DC-10 delivery system is based on an externally mounted set of tanks and a bomb-bay style set of clamshell doors that are opened in precisely calibrated ways to deliver the amounts and concentrations of retardant called for by the specific wildfire situation. The system was manufactured by Jordan Air of Central Point, OR, and was installed by Victorville Aerospace in Victorville, CA. It can deliver 12,000 gallons (45.4 kL) of retardant in as little as eight seconds. The aircraft can deliver a partial load of retardant and make multiple drops on the same flight, or the entire load can be rapidly delivered in one pass if required for maximum coverage. The Evergreen 747 uses internal tankage and a pressurized delivery system to enable volume and coverage levels that also meet USFS requirements, but enables computer control of flow for desired precision. This system was designed and built by Adaptive Aerospace of Tehachapi, CA and can deliver about 20,000 gallons (75.7 kL) of retardant in approximately ten seconds. The 747 can also make multiple independent drops, or deliver the entire load at once. NASA found that both of these VLAT aircraft are compatible with the wildfire suppression mission when used to supplement other aerial retardant delivery platforms. The major recommendations for deployment that resulted from this study relate to terrain clearance, the type of terrain in the drop area, availability of qualified lead planes to guide the VLAT approach to the drop area, and low-altitude maneuvering limitations. NASA s analysis suggests that with the appropriate flight procedures, these aircraft will provide a powerful set of tools to fight wildfires.

Dickerson, Mark↗

A Fresh Take: Seasonal Changes in Terrestrial Freshwater Inputs Impact Salt Marsh Hydrology and Vegetation Dynamics

Abstract Salt marshes exist at the terrestrial-marine interface, providing important ecosystem services such as nutrient cycling and carbon sequestration. Tidal inputs play a dominant role in salt marsh porewater mixing, and terrestrially derived freshwater inputs are increasingly recognized as important sources of water and solutes to intertidal wetlands. However, there remains a critical gap in understanding the role of freshwater inputs on salt marsh hydrology, and how this may impact marsh subsurface salinity and plant productivity. Here, we address this knowledge gap by examining the hydrologic behavior, porewater salinity, and pickleweed ( Sarcocornia pacifica also known as Salicornia pacifica) plant productivity along a salt marsh transect in an estuary along the central coast of California. Through the installation of a suite of hydrometric sensors and routine porewater sampling and vegetation surveys, we sought to understand how seasonal changes in terrestrial freshwater inputs impact salt marsh ecohydrologic processes. We found that salt marsh porewater salinity, shallow subsurface saturation, and pickleweed productivity are closely coupled with elevated upland water level during the winter and spring, and more influenced by tidal inputs during the summer and fall. This seasonal response indicates a switch in salt marsh hydrologic connectivity with the terrestrial upland that impacts ecosystem functioning. Through elucidating the interannual impacts of drought on salt marsh hydrology, we found that the severity of drought and historical precipitation can impact contemporary hydrologic behavior and the duration and timing of the upland-marsh hydrologic connectivity. This implies that the sensitivity of salt marshes to climate change involves a complex interaction between sea level rise and freshwater inputs that vary at seasonal to interannual timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗