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NASA NTRS2012

Safety Risk Knowledge Elicitation in Support of Aeronautical R and D Portfolio Management: A Case Study

Aviation is a problem domain characterized by a high level of system complexity and uncertainty. Safety risk analysis in such a domain is especially challenging given the multitude of operations and diverse stakeholders. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) projects that by 2025 air traffic will increase by more than 50 percent with 1.1 billion passengers a year and more than 85,000 flights every 24 hours contributing to further delays and congestion in the sky (Circelli, 2011). This increased system complexity necessitates the application of structured safety risk analysis methods to understand and eliminate where possible, reduce, and/or mitigate risk factors. The use of expert judgments for probabilistic safety analysis in such a complex domain is necessary especially when evaluating the projected impact of future technologies, capabilities, and procedures for which current operational data may be scarce. Management of an R&D product portfolio in such a dynamic domain needs a systematic process to elicit these expert judgments, process modeling results, perform sensitivity analyses, and efficiently communicate the modeling results to decision makers. In this paper a case study focusing on the application of an R&D portfolio of aeronautical products intended to mitigate aircraft Loss of Control (LOC) accidents is presented. In particular, the knowledge elicitation process with three subject matter experts who contributed to the safety risk model is emphasized. The application and refinement of a verbal-numerical scale for conditional probability elicitation in a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is discussed. The preliminary findings from this initial step of a three-part elicitation are important to project management practitioners as they illustrate the vital contribution of systematic knowledge elicitation in complex domains.

Shih, Ann T.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Tailoring a Human Reliability Analysis to Your Industry Needs

Companies at risk of accidents caused by human error that result in catastrophic consequences include: airline industry mishaps, medical malpractice, medication mistakes, aerospace failures, major oil spills, transportation mishaps, power production failures and manufacturing facility incidents. Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) is used to analyze the inherent risk of human behavior or actions introducing errors into the operation of a system or process. These assessments can be used to identify where errors are most likely to arise and the potential risks involved if they do occur. Using the basic concepts of HRA, an evolving group of methodologies are used to meet various industry needs. Determining which methodology or combination of techniques will provide a quality human reliability assessment is a key element to developing effective strategies for understanding and dealing with risks caused by human errors. There are a number of concerns and difficulties in "tailoring" a Human Reliability Assessment (HRA) for different industries. Although a variety of HRA methodologies are available to analyze human error events, determining the most appropriate tools to provide the most useful results can depend on industry specific cultures and requirements. Methodology selection may be based on a variety of factors that include: 1) how people act and react in different industries, 2) expectations based on industry standards, 3) factors that influence how the human errors could occur such as tasks, tools, environment, workplace, support, training and procedure, 4) type and availability of data, 5) how the industry views risk & reliability, and 6) types of emergencies, contingencies and routine tasks. Other considerations for methodology selection should be based on what information is needed from the assessment. If the principal concern is determination of the primary risk factors contributing to the potential human error, a more detailed analysis method may be employed versus a requirement to provide a numerical value as part of a probabilistic risk assessment. Industries involved with humans operating large equipment or transport systems (ex. railroads or airlines) would have more need to address the man machine interface than medical workers administering medications. Human error occurs in every industry; in most cases the consequences are relatively benign and occasionally beneficial. In cases where the results can have disastrous consequences, the use of Human Reliability techniques to identify and classify the risk of human errors allows a company more opportunities to mitigate or eliminate these types of risks and prevent costly tragedies.

DeMott, D. L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Adjoint-based Sensitivities of Flutter Predictions based on the Linearized Frequency-domain Approach

Flutter is a critical factor in designing and certifying aircraft. The linearized frequency-domain method offers a lower cost alternative to time-marching computational fluid dynamics for high-fidelity flutter analysis. In this work, adjoint-based sensitivities are added to a flutter analysis based on the linearized frequency-domain method to efficiently compute derivatives of flutter cost functions with respect to design variables or uncertain parameters. The derivation of the adjoint equations, which involve complications such as derivatives of a nonlinear generalized eigenvalue problem with complex-valued inputs and derivatives of the linearized Navier-Stokes equations, is provided. The implemented adjoint terms and derivatives are verified before demonstrating the approach for derivatives of flutter dynamic pressure with respect to Mach number for the AGARD 445.6 wing.

Aeroelasticity↗
DOE OSTI2026

Broad frequency tuning of a Nb$_{3}$Sn superconducting microwave cavity for dark matter searches

We demonstrate a novel broad-frequency tuning mechanism for superconducting microwave cavities designed for dark matter searches. Using a Nb$_3$Sn-coated cigar-shaped cavity operating at approximately 9 GHz, we achieve continuous frequency tuning exceeding 1 GHz by mechanically separating the two cavity halves: a "tuning-by-opening" technique. Finite-element method simulations predict that radiative losses do not degrade the quality factor even for large openings, as a closed cavity with an intrinsic quality factor of $10^7$ maintains this value for apertures up to 9 mm, corresponding to a tuning range from 9.0 to 7.5 GHz. Experimental validation using both copper ring spacers and a continuous sliding mechanism confirms $Q_0$ values exceeding the dark matter quality factor across the entire explored frequency range, despite mechanical imperfections and film non-uniformities. This tuning approach avoids inserting elements into the resonant volume, making it particularly suitable for high-Q superconducting cavities in axion haloscope experiments and readily applicable to REBCO-based implementations capable of operating in multi-tesla magnetic fields.

Maiello, D. [Padua U.; INFN, Padua] (ORCID:0009000↗
DOE OSTI2022

Traffic safety analysis and model updating for freeways using Bayesian method

Freeway crash prediction models are the basic of traffic safety research, yet crash occurrence and the influencing factors change over time. In order to make sure the implemented safety models fit the current traffic environment, this study conducts a comparative analysis of 2017 and 2020 datasets collected from freeways in Suzhou, China. Herein, considering the spatial correlation among analysis units and the hierarchical data structure, a Bayesian conditional autoregressive negative binomial (CAR-NB) model and a Bayesian hierarchical CAR-NB (HCAR-NB) model were used to explore the safety influencing factors, and a traditional NB model was developed for further comparison. To update the HCAR-NB model from 2017 to 2020, Bayesian inference with informative priors was used to improve its goodness of fit and efficiency. Preliminary results showed that 1) the HCAR-NB model outperformed the NB model and CAR-NB model in prediction accuracy, and 2) the number of crashes was significantly correlated with average speed, speed variance, road segment length, number of lanes, and presence of ramps. The potential for safety improvement (PSI) method was applied to the modeling results to identify hotspots for the two years. The results confirmed that the hotspots spatiotemporally shifted among the freeways. The proposed crash prediction model and updating method are expected to assist implementation of informed countermeasures for freeway safety improvement.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Preliminary description of a new creep-fatigue design method that reduces over conservatism and simplifies the high temperature design process

The report provides the initial description of a new creep-fatigue design method for structural components in high temperature nuclear service. The new method is based on an integrated elastic-perfectly plastic (EPP) analysis and Simplified Model Test (SMT) approach that reduces over conservatism, improves the treatment of elastic follow up, and simplifies the design procedure, when compared with the current creep-fatigue design methods in ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code. Developing the design charts for the EPP-SMT design method requires extrapolating SMT test data as a function of hold time and follow up factor. The report develops the preliminary design charts for Alloy 617 at temperatures between 800°C and 950°C by combining two extrapolation approaches developed in a previous work. The report also presents a comparative analysis between the EPP-SMT design method and the current ASME creep-fatigue design methods by evaluating design life of two sample geometries under different loading conditions. Results from the comparative analysis verify the EPP-SMT design charts but suggest the requirement of additional test data in the low strain range regime for improving the extrapolation procedure that will further reduce the over conservatism in the creep-fatigue damage evaluation. The report also concludes that the EPP-SMT design procedure can account for effect of primary load on creep-fatigue life by using a fixed, bounding value of follow up in constructing the design charts. The conclusions to this report describe the future work required to complete this new design method so it can be codified through a nuclear Code Case.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1985

Developments in the simulation of separated flows using finite difference methods

Compressible viscous flow simulation using finite difference Navier-Stokes and viscous-inviscid interaction methods is described. Recent developments are reviewed that significantly improve the computational efficiency of approximately factored implicit Navier-Stokes algorithms. Compared to Navier-Stokes codes, modern viscous-inviscid interaction codes are more computationally efficient, but have restricted application and are more complicated to program. Therefore, less efficient but more general viscous-inviscid interaction methods are investigated that use forcing functions instead of boundary condition matching, and a simple, direct/inverse, three-dimensional, finite-difference, boundary layer code is presented.

Steger, J. L.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Breaking Barriers in Chalcogenide Perovskite Synthesis: A Generalized Framework for Fabrication of BaMS 3 (M═Ti, Zr, Hf) Materials

Abstract Chalcogenide perovskites have garnered increasing attention as stable, non‐toxic alternatives to lead halide perovskites. However, their conventional synthesis at high temperatures (>1000 °C) has hindered widespread adoption. Recent studies have developed low‐to‐moderate temperature synthesis methods (<600 °C) using reactive precursors, yet a comprehensive understanding of the pivotal factors affecting reproducibility and repeatability remains elusive. This study delineates the critical factors in the low‐temperature synthesis of BaMS 3 (M═Zr, Hf, Ti) compounds and presents a generalized framework. Innovative approaches are developed for synthesizing BaMS 3 compounds using this framework involving organometallics for solution deposition. The molecular precursor routes, employing metal acetylacetonates to generate soluble metal–sulfur bonded complexes and metal–organic compounds to produce soluble metal‐thiolate, metal‐isothiocyanate, and metal‐trithiocarbonate species, are demonstrated to yield carbon‐free BaMS 3 . These methods have achieved the most contiguous films of BaZrS 3 and BaHfS 3 using solution deposition to date. Furthermore, a hybrid solution processing method involving stacking sputter‐deposited Zr and solution‐deposited BaS layers is employed to synthesize a contiguous, oxygen‐free BaZrS 3 film. The diffuse reflectance measurements indicate a direct bandgap of ≈ 1.85 eV for the BaZrS 3 films and ≈ 2.1 eV for the BaHfS 3 film under investigation.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS2004

On-the-Fly Mapping for Calibrating Directional Antennas

An improved method of calibrating a large directional radio antenna of the type used in deep-space communication and radio astronomy has been developed. This method involves a raster-scanning-and-measurement technique denoted on-the-fly (OTF) mapping, applied in consideration of the results of a systematic analysis of the entire measurement procedure. Phenomena to which particular attention was paid in the analysis include (1) the noise characteristics of a total-power radiometer (TPR) that is used in the measurements and (2) tropospherically induced radiometer fluctuations. The method also involves the use of recently developed techniques for acquisition and reduction of data. In comparison with prior methods used to calibrate such antennas, this method yields an order-of-magnitude improvement in the precision of determinations of antenna aperture efficiency, and improvement by a factor of five or more in the precision of determination of pointing error and beam width. Prerequisite to a meaningful description of the present method is some background information concerning three aspects of the problem of calibrating an antenna of the type in question: In OTF mapping measurements in which a TPR is used, the desired data are the peak temperature corresponding to a radio source, the pointing offset when the antenna is commanded to point toward the source, and the shape of the main lobe of the antenna beam, all as functions of the antenna beam elevation and azimuth angles. These data enable one to calculate the (1) antenna aperture efficiency by comparing the measured peak temperature with that expected for a 100-percent-efficient antenna, (2) the mechanical pointing error resulting from small misalignments of various parts of the antenna structure, and (3) misalignments of the antenna subreflector and other mirrors. For practical reasons having to do with obtaining adequate angular resolution and all-sky coverage, it is necessary to perform azimuth and elevation scans fairly rapidly. Many natural radio sources used in calibrating antennas are only approximately pointlike: some sources subtend angles greater than the beam width of a given antenna. In such a case, the antenna partially resolves the source structure and does not collect all of the radiation emitted by the source. This makes it necessary to estimate how much of the total known radiation from the source would actually be collected by the antenna if it were 100-percent efficient. The resulting estimate, leading to a source-size correction factor, introduces another degree of uncertainty to the measurements. OTF mapping can remove this uncertainty

Rochblatt, David↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model Choice Metrics to Optimize Profile-QSAR Performance

Predicting molecular activity against protein targets is difficult because of the paucity of experimental data. Approaches like multitask modeling and collaborative filtering seek to improve model accuracy by leveraging results from multiple targets, but are limited because different compounds are measured with different assays, leading to sparse data matrices. Profile-QSAR (pQSAR) 2.0 addresses this problem by fitting a series of partial least squares models for each target, using as features the predictions from single-task models on the remaining targets. Here, this method has been shown to produce better results than single task and multitask models. However, the factors determining the success of pQSAR 2.0 have as yet not been characterized. In this paper we examine the experimental conditions that lead to better pQSAR models. We limit the amount of data available to the method by retraining with decreasing amounts of data and explore the model’s ability to generalize to compounds that have never been assayed. Finally, we look at the properties of training data needed to demonstrate pQSAR improvement.

Biological and medical sciences, Computer science↗
DOE OSTI2020

Estimating region-specific fuel economy in the United States from real-world driving cycles

Here we describe a method for estimating region-specific real-world light-duty vehicle fuel economy in the United States that is unique in both the size and representativeness of real-world driving that was considered, and for its ability to model regional variations in driving patterns. Over one million miles of national driving data were used to select real-world cycles representative of observed trip categories. The six cycles were compared to U.S. legislative cycles, revealing some key differences. Finally, a set of cycle weighting factors for 533 separate U.S. regions was derived from annual traffic statistics. Applying this method, it was found that regional fuel economy varies due to differences in driving patterns alone and that rural driving patterns lead to improved fuel economy (for conventional vehicles). The driving cycles and regional weighting factors described here are useful for testing and simulation studies, specifically those sensitive to regional variations in driving patterns.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1978

A review and assessment of the stress-intensity factors for surface cracks

The stress-intensity factor solutions proposed for a surface crack in a finite plate subjected to uniform tension are reviewed. Fourteen different solutions for the stress-intensity factors are compared. These solutions were obtained over the past 16 years using approximate analytical methods, experimental methods, and engineering estimates. The accuracy is assessed of the various solutions by correlating fracture data on surface-cracked tension specimens made of a brittle epoxy material. Fracture of the epoxy material was characterized by a constant value of stress-intensity factor at failure. Thus, the correctness of the various solutions is judged by the variations in the stress-intensity factors at failure. The solutions were ranked in order of minimum standard deviation. The highest ranking solutions correlated 95 percent of data analyzed within + or - 10 percent, whereas the lowest ranking solutions correlated 95 percent of data analyzed within + or - 20 percent. However, some solutions could be applied to all data considered, whereas others are limited with respect to crack shapes and crack sizes that could be analyzed.

Newman, J. C., Jr.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Robust Predictive Control for Modular Solid-State Transformer With Reduced DC Link and Parameter Mismatch

This paper presents the analysis and implementation of a predictive control method for dc-link regulation and voltage balance in a cascaded modular reduced dc-link solid-state transformer (SST). Passive components like bulky dc links limit the power density of power converters, especially medium-voltage (MV) SST. Reduced dc-link or low-inertia converters can dramatically reduce the size, cost, and weight by tolerating larger dc-link ripples and improve the reliability with electrolytic capacitor-less dc link. However, a small dc link leads to tight coupling between the input and the output stages, which is a challenge for control design. In stacked low-inertia converters (SLIC), the low-inertia converter modules are stacked for MV applications, resulting in coupling between the modules and making the control more challenging. A new model predictive control method which can achieve deadbeat regulation on the dc link without weighting factors has been proposed to address this novel problem. This paper focuses on analyzing the condition of the low-inertia dc link up to 80% ripple, the robustness of the control under parameter mismatches, high-order terms, and important implementation issues such as model-based sampling and computation delay compensation. Significantly, the high-order terms are introduced because of the large dc-link ripple. These high-order terms are unique to the SLIC and negligible in conventional high-inertia converters. A discrete-time large-signal model is built to capture the dc-link’s nonlinear dynamics, and the eigenvalues of a small-signal Jacobian matrix are analyzed with Floquet theory to evaluate stability, using the modular soft-switching solid-state transformer (M-S4T) as an example of the SLIC. Simulation and experimental results of an MVDC M-S4T verify the analysis and the predictive control method. Finally, the general application of the predictive control to low-inertia converters is compared against a conventional PI controller using a reduced dc-link active-front-end (AFE) rectifier as an example.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1980

Determination of instrumentation errors from measured data using maximum likelihood method

The maximum likelihood method is used for estimation of unknown initial conditions, constant bias and scale factor errors in measured flight data. The model for the system to be identified consists of the airplane six-degree-of-freedom kinematic equations, and the output equations specifying the measured variables. The estimation problem is formulated in a general way and then, for practical use, simplified by ignoring the effect of process noise. The algorithm developed is first applied to computer generated data having different levels of process noise for the demonstration of the robustness of the method. Then the real flight data are analyzed and the results compared with those obtained by the extended Kalman filter algorithm.

Keskar, D. A.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling the Electronic Absorption Spectra of the Indocarbocyanine Cy3

Accurate modeling of optical spectra requires careful treatment of the molecular structures and vibronic, environmental, and thermal contributions. The accuracy of the computational methods used to simulate absorption spectra is limited by their ability to account for all the factors that affect the spectral shapes and energetics. The ensemble-based approaches are widely used to model the absorption spectra of molecules in the condensed-phase, and their performance is system dependent. The Franck–Condon approach is suitable for simulating high resolution spectra of rigid systems, and its accuracy is limited mainly by the harmonic approximation. In this work, the absorption spectrum of the widely used cyanine Cy3 is simulated using the ensemble approach via classical and quantum sampling, as well as, the Franck–Condon approach. The factors limiting the ensemble approaches, including the sampling and force field effects, are tested, while the vertical and adiabatic harmonic approximations of the Franck–Condon approach are also systematically examined. Our results show that all the vertical methods, including the ensemble approach, are not suitable to model the absorption spectrum of Cy3, and recommend the adiabatic methods as suitable approaches for the modeling of spectra with strong vibronic contributions. We find that the thermal effects, the low frequency modes, and the simultaneous vibrational excitations have prominent contributions to the Cy3 spectrum. The inclusion of the solvent stabilizes the energetics significantly, while its negligible effect on the spectral shapes aligns well with the experimental observations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2007

Analysis of Crossflow Transition Flight Experiment aboard the Pegasus Launch Vehicle

The Pegasus wing-glove flight experiment was designed to provide crossflow transition data at high Mach numbers, specifically to help validate stability based predictions for transition onset in a flight environment. This paper provides an analysis of the flight experiment, with emphasis on computational results for crossflow disturbances and the correlation of disturbance growth factors with in-flight transition locations via the e(sup N) method. Implications of the flight data for attachment line stability are also examined. Analysis of the thermocouple data reveals that transition (from turbulent to laminar flow) was first detected during the ascending flight of the rocket when the free stream Mach number exceeded about 4. Therefore, computations have been performed for flight Mach numbers of 4.13, 4.35, 4.56 and 4.99. Due to continually decreasing unit Reynolds number at higher altitudes, the entire wing-glove boundary layer became laminar at the highest flight Mach number computed above. In contrast, the boundary layer flow over the inboard tile region remained transitional up to and somewhat beyond the time of laminarization over the instrumented glove region. Linear stability predictions confirmed that the tile boundary layer is indeed more unstable to crossflow disturbances than the much colder stainless steel glove boundary layer. The transition locations based on thermocouple data from both the glove and the tile regions are found to correlate with stationary-crossflow N-factors within the range of 7 to 12.4 and with traveling mode N-factors between 7.6 and 14.1. Data from the thermocouples and hot film sensors indicates that transition from turbulent to laminar flow (i.e., laminarization) at a fixed point over the glove is generally completed within a flight time interval of 3 seconds. However, the times at which transition begins and ends as inferred from the hot film sensors are found to differ by about 2 seconds from the corresponding estimates based on the thermocouple data.

Malik, Mujeeb R.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Correlating Surface Processing of Nb Superconducting RF Cavities with the Evolution of Surface Electronic States

Superconducting-radio frequency (RF) cavities provide an efficient way to accelerate particle beams with extremely high acceleration gradients while generating very small power dissipation. The few nanometers of the surface play a critical role in defining the RF performance of superconducting Nb based cavities. Over the past two decades, several pioneering surface treatment and processing methods have emerged, enabling remarkable improvements in superconducting cavity performance by simultaneously achieving high quality factors with increasing maximum acceleration gradients. These processing approaches include chemical polishing, distinct multi-step thermal treatments under ultra-high vacuum (UHV) conditions over low to high temperature regimes, as well as high-temperature treatments under controlled nitrogen atmospheres. Beyond their macroscopic impact on RF performance, these methods produce distinct surface oxide configurations characterized by different valence states, oxide thicknesses, chemical uniformity, and oxygen concentration profiles extending into the near-surface bulk of niobium. In this work, we are trying to understand how the surface-processing methods and the resulting oxide/oxygen profiles affect the electronic structure of surface and the mechanism of superconductivity. Using a combination of X-ray photoemission and X-ray absorption spectroscopies, we investigate how the valence-band structure and the electronic density of states (DoS) near the Fermi level evolve under different surface treatments. By employing tunable photon energies across multiple elemental absorption edges, we use resonant photoemission to disentangle and identify the elemental contributions to specific valence-band features. Our observations show that different surface-processing methods lead to distinct temperature evolutions of the DoS and valence-band states near the Fermi level. Our results suggest variations in different Nb-O orbital hybridizations in distinct processes and point towards the possibility of different underlying mechanisms of superconductivity governed by surface chemistry and oxide configuration. We also correlate these distinct superconducting mechanisms with RF cavity performance, specifically focusing on measured surface resistance, the nature of the Q-slope, and quench fields observed in superconducting RF measurements. These results will enable us to identify the potential limiting factors and relevant controllable parameters that can be further optimized to improve the performance of superconducting RF cavities.

Tripathi, Malvika [Fermilab] (ORCID:00000001989251↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nomogram for Predicting Postoperative Portal Venous Systemic Thrombosis in Patients with Cirrhosis Undergoing Splenectomy and Esophagogastric Devascularization

Objectives. The aim of the study is to develop a nomogram for predicting postoperative portal venous systemic thrombosis (PVST) in patients with cirrhosis undergoing splenectomy and esophagogastric devascularization. Methods. In total, 195 eligible patients were included. Demographic characteristics were collected, and the results of perioperative routine laboratory investigations and ultrasound examinations were also recorded. Blood cell morphological traits, including the red cell volume distribution width (RDW), mean platelet volume, and platelet distribution width, were identified. Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions were implemented for risk factor filtration, and an integrated nomogram was generated and then validated using the bootstrap method. Results. A color Doppler abdominal ultrasound examination on a postoperative day (POD) 7 (38.97%) revealed that 76 patients had PVST. The results of the multivariate logistic regression suggested that a higher RDW on POD3 (RDW3) (odds ratio (OR): 1.188, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.073–1.326), wider portal vein diameter (OR: 1.387, 95% CI: 1.203–1.642), history of variceal hemorrhage (OR: 3.407, 95% CI: 1.670–7.220), and longer spleen length (OR: 1.015, 95% CI: 1.001–1.029) were independent risk parameters for postoperative PVST. Moreover, the nomogram integrating these four parameters exhibited considerable capability in PVST forecasting. The nomogram’s receiver operating characteristic curve reached 0.83 and achieved a sensitivity and specificity of 0.711 and 0.848, respectively, at its cutoff. The nomogram’s calibration curve demonstrated that it was well calibrated. Conclusion. The nomogram exhibited excellent performance in PVST prediction and might assist surgeons in identifying vulnerable patients and administering timely prophylaxis.

Chen, Miao↗