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At least 1,765 records · Page 98

Simulations of Cloud-Radiation Interaction Using Large-Scale Forcing Derived from the CINDY/DYNAMO Northern Sounding Array

The recently completed CINDY/DYNAMO field campaign observed two Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) events in the equatorial Indian Ocean from October to December 2011. Prior work has indicated that the moist static energy anomalies in these events grew and were sustained to a significant extent by radiative feedbacks. We present here a study of radiative fluxes and clouds in a set of cloud-resolving simulations of these MJO events. The simulations are driven by the large-scale forcing data set derived from the DYNAMO northern sounding array observations, and carried out in a doubly periodic domain using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Simulated cloud properties and radiative fluxes are compared to those derived from the S-PolKa radar and satellite observations. To accommodate the uncertainty in simulated cloud microphysics, a number of single-moment (1M) and double-moment (2M) microphysical schemes in the WRF model are tested. The 1M schemes tend to underestimate radiative flux anomalies in the active phases of the MJO events, while the 2M schemes perform better, but can overestimate radiative flux anomalies. All the tested microphysics schemes exhibit biases in the shapes of the histograms of radiative fluxes and radar reflectivity. Histograms of radiative fluxes and brightness temperature indicate that radiative biases are not evenly distributed; the most significant bias occurs in rainy areas with OLR less than 150 W/ cu sq in the 2M schemes. Analysis of simulated radar reflectivities indicates that this radiative flux uncertainty is closely related to the simulated stratiform cloud coverage. Single-moment schemes underestimate stratiform cloudiness by a factor of 2, whereas 2M schemes simulate much more stratiform cloud.

Indian Ocean↗

DESI Observations of the Andromeda Galaxy: Revealing the Immigration History of Our Nearest Neighbor

We present Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) observations of the inner halo of M31, which reveal the kinematics of a recent merger—a galactic immigration event—in exquisite detail. Of the 11,416 sources studied in 3.75 hr of on-sky exposure time, 7438 are M31 sources with well-measured radial velocities. The observations reveal intricate coherent kinematic structure in the positions and velocities of individual stars: streams, wedges, and chevrons. While hints of coherent structures have been previously detected in M31, this is the first time they have been seen with such detail and clarity in a galaxy beyond the Milky Way. We find clear kinematic evidence for shell structures in the Giant Stellar Stream, the Northeast Shelf, and Western Shelf regions. The kinematics are remarkably similar to the predictions of dynamical models constructed to explain the spatial morphology of the inner halo. The results are consistent with the interpretation that much of the substructure in the inner halo of M31 is produced by a single galactic immigration event 1–2 Gyr ago. Significant numbers of metal-rich stars ([Fe/H] > − 0.5) are present in all of the detected substructures, suggesting that the immigrating galaxy had an extended star formation history. We also investigate the ability of the shells and Giant Stellar Stream to constrain the gravitational potential of M31, and estimate the mass within a projected radius of 125 kpc to be (log 10 ) (M NEW ) (<125 kpc)/(M ꙩ ) =(11.80 +0.12 −0.10 ). The results herald a new era in our ability to study stars on a galactic scale and the immigration histories of galaxies.

Arjun Dey↗

Extreme events, energy security and equality through micro- and macro-levels: Concepts, challenges and methods

Low-income households face long-standing challenges of energy insecurity and inequality (EII). During extreme events (e.g., disasters and pandemics) these challenges are especially severe for vulnerable populations reliant on energy for health, education, and well-being. However, many EII studies rarely incorporate the micro- and macro-perspectives of resilience and reliability of energy and internet infrastructure and social-psychological factors. To remedy this gap, we first address the impacts of extreme events on EII among vulnerable populations. Second, we evaluate the driving factors of EII and how they change during disasters. Third, we situate these inequalities within broader energy systems and pinpoint the importance of equitable infrastructure systems by examining infrastructure reliability and resilience and the role of renewable technologies. Then, we consider the factors influencing energy consumption, such as energy practices, socio-psychological factors, and internet access. Finally, we propose interdisciplinary research methods to study these issues during extreme events and provide recommendations.

Chen, CF↗

Elemental abundances in corotating events

Large, persistent solar-wind streams in 1973 and 1974 produced corotating interaction regions which accelerated particles to energies of a few MeV/nucleon. The proton to helium ratio (H/He) was remarkably constant at a value (22 + or 5) equal to that in the solar wind (21 + or - 3), suggesting that particles were being accelerated directly out of the solar wind. Preliminary results were presented from a similar study approximately 11 years (i.e., one solar cycle) later. Corotating events have been identified by surveying the solar wind data, energetic particle time-histories and anisotropies. This data was all obtained from the ISEE-3/ICE spacecraft. These events also show H/He ratios similar to that in the solar wind. It is flund that in these cases there is evidence for H/He ratios which are significantly different from that of the solar wind but which are consistent with the range of values found in solar flare events.

Vonrosenvinge, T. T.↗

Simulating the Cascading Effects of an Extreme Agricultural Production Shock: Global Implications of a Contemporary US Dust Bowl Event

Higher temperatures expected by midcentury increase the risk of shocks to crop production, while the interconnected nature of the current global food system functions to spread the impact of localized production shocks throughout the world. In this study, we analyze the global potential impact of a present-day event of equivalent magnitude to the US Dust Bowl, modeling the ways in which a sudden decline in US wheat production could cascade through the global network of agricultural trade. We use observations of country-level production, reserves, and trade data in a Food Shock Cascade model to explore trade adjustments and country-level inventory changes in response to a major, multiyear production decline. We find that a 4-year decline in wheat production of the same proportional magnitude as occurred during the Dust Bowl greatly reduces both wheat supply and reserves in the United States and propagates through the global trade network. By year 4 of the event, US wheat exports fall from 90.5 trillion kcal before the drought to 48 trillion to 52 trillion kcal, and the United States exhausts 94% of its reserves. As a result of reduced US exports, other countries meet their needs by leveraging their own reserves, leading to a 31% decline in wheat reserves globally. These findings demonstrate that an extreme production decline would lead to substantial supply shortfalls in both the United States and in other countries, where impacts outside the United States strongly depend on a country's reserves and on its relative position in the global trade network.

Heslin, Alison↗

Stressful crystal histories recorded around melt inclusions in volcanic quartz

Abstract Magma ascent and eruption are driven by a set of internally and externally generated stresses that act upon the magma. We present microstructural maps around melt inclusions in quartz crystals from six large rhyolitic eruptions using synchrotron Laue X-ray microdiffraction to quantify elastic residual strain and stress. We measure plastic strain using average diffraction peak width and lattice misorientation, highlighting dislocations and subgrain boundaries. Quartz crystals across studied magma systems preserve similar and relatively small magnitudes of elastic residual stress (mean 53–135 MPa, median 46–116 MPa) in comparison to the strength of quartz (~ 10 GPa). However, the distribution of strain in the lattice around inclusions varies between samples. We hypothesize that dislocation and twin systems may be established during compaction of crystal-rich magma, which affects the magnitude and distribution of preserved elastic strains. Given the lack of stress-free haloes around faceted inclusions, we conclude that most residual strain and stress was imparted after inclusion faceting. Fragmentation may be one of the final strain events that superimposes stresses of ~ 100 MPa across all studied crystals. Overall, volcanic quartz crystals preserve complex, overprinted deformation textures indicating that quartz crystals have prolonged deformation histories throughout storage, fragmentation, and eruption.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Apollo: A Retrospective Analysis

The program to land an American on the Moon and return safely to Earth in the 1960s has been called by some observers a defining event of the twentieth century. Pulitzer Prize-winning historian Arthur M. Schlesinger, Jr., even suggested that when Americans two centuries hence study the twentieth century, they will view the Apollo lunar landing as the critical event of the century. While that conclusion might be premature, there can be little doubt but that the flight of Apollo 11 in particular and the overall Apollo program in general was a high point in humanity s quest to explore the universe beyond Earth. Since the completion of Project Apollo more than twenty years ago there have been a plethora of books, studies, reports, and articles about its origin, execution, and meaning. At the time of the twenty-fifth anniversary of the first landing, it is appropriate to reflect on the effort and its place in U.S. and NASA history. This monograph has been written as a means to this end. It presents a short narrative account of Apollo from its origin through its assessment. That is followed by a mission by mission summary of the Apollo flights and concluded by a series of key documents relative to the program reproduced in facsimile. The intent of this monograph is to provide a basic history along with primary documents that may be useful to NASA personnel and others desiring information about Apollo.

Launius, Roger D.↗

EoC Study Update to Examine the Cost, Schedule and Technical Changes to NASA Projects

The original National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Explanation of Change (EoC) study was conducted in 2010 to understand the underlying causes of cost and schedule growth. The first study consisted of 25 missions launched from 2000 to 2010 and looked at the events that led to growth. These events were categorized into different bins that were rolled up to quantify whether the growth was due to internal planning, or internal execution, or from external forces and found that the growth was evenly distributed among those three categories. The result of the study presented nine considerations focused at reducing growth due to project external events and internal planning events. Although no one 'magic bullet' consideration was discovered in the previous work, the nine considerations taken as a whole were postulated to help reduce cost and schedule change in future NASA missions. A recent update was conducted that included investigating 8 missions developed since the previous study to determine if the results were different. Cost, schedule, and mass increases were analyzed from the start of Phase B through Preliminary Design Review and Critical Design Review to Launch. As shown in this paper, the results are better with overall cost and schedule growth being reduced. The paper will show a comparison of the previous results to the updated results to show specific reductions and provide an explanation of which recommendations were followed.

growth↗

Characteristic Lifelength of Coherent Structure in the Turbulent Boundary Layer

A characteristic lifelength is defined by which a Gaussian distribution is fit to data correlated over a 3 sensor array sampling streamwise sidewall pressure. The data were acquired at subsonic, transonic and supersonic speeds aboard a Tu-144. Lifelengths are estimated using the cross spectrum and are shown to compare favorably with Efimtsov's prediction of correlation space scales. Lifelength distributions are computed in the time/frequency domain using an interval correlation technique on the continuous wavelet transform of the original time data. The median values of the lifelength distributions are found to be very close to the frequency averaged result. The interval correlation technique is shown to allow the retrieval and inspection of the original time data of each event in the lifelength distribution, thus providing a means to locate and study the nature of the coherent structure in the turbulent boundary layer. The lifelength data can be converted to lifetimes using the convection velocity. The lifetime of events in the time/frequency domain are displayed in Lifetime Maps. The primary purpose of the paper is to validate these new analysis techniques so that they can be used with confidence to further characterize coherent structure in the turbulent boundary layer.

Palumbo, Daniel L.↗

Validation of turbulence intensity as simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting model off the US northeast coast

We report turbulence intensity (TI) is often used to quantify the strength of turbulence in wind energy applications and serves as the basis of standards in wind turbine design. Thus, accurately characterizing the spatiotemporal variability in TI should lead to improved predictions of power production. Nevertheless, turbulence measurements over the ocean are far less prevalent than over land due to challenges in instrumental deployment, maintenance, and operation. Atmospheric models such as mesoscale (weather prediction) and large-eddy simulation (LES) models are commonly used in the wind energy industry to assess the spatial variability of a given site. However, the TI derivation from atmospheric models has not been well examined. An algorithm is proposed in this study to realize online calculation of TI in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Simulated TI is divided into two components depending on scale, including sub-grid (parameterized based on turbulence kinetic energy (TKE)) and grid resolved. The sensitivity of sea surface temperature (SST) on simulated TI is also tested. An assessment is performed by using observations collected during a field campaign conducted from February to June 2020 near the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory. Results show that while simulated TKE is generally smaller than the lidar-observed value, wind speed bias is usually small. Overall, this leads to a slight underestimation in sub-grid-scale estimated TI. Improved SST representation subsequently reduces model biases in atmospheric stability as well as wind speed and sub-grid TI near the hub height. Large TI events in conjunction with mesoscale weather systems observed during the studied period pose a challenge to accurately estimating TI from models. Due to notable uncertainty in accurately simulating those events, this suggests summing up sub-grid and resolved TI may not be an ideal solution. Efforts in further improving skills in simulating mesoscale flow and cloud systems are necessary as the next steps.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Bill Savings vs. Backup Power: Evaluating operational tradeoffs for home solar+storage systems [Slides]

Adoption of residential solar photovoltaic+energy storage systems (PVESS) is driven by both bill savings opportunities and customer demand for backup power. Prior work by this team (Gorman et al., 2022; Gorman et al., 2023) explored PVESS backup power capabilities during long-duration power interruptions (e.g., due to severe weather events), when customers are assumed to be able to anticipate the event and charge their batteries in advance. In many cases, however, power interruptions are unpredictable (and often relatively short); for those types of events, a customer will typically set its battery to maintain some minimum capacity in reserve in case of an interruption, which reduces the capacity available for managing utility bills. This study evaluates this operational tradeoff to help customers and installers configure backup reserve settings, and to inform decision-making more generally about the customer value of backup power services compared to utility bill savings. This study utilizes Berkeley Lab’s PRESTO tool to produce stochastic simulations of (predominantly short-duration) power interruption events, and builds on an earlier case-study demonstrating PVESS backup performance during short-duration interruptions (Baik et al., 2023).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A Modeling Study of the Spring 2011 Extreme US Weather Activity

The spring of 2011 was characterized by record-breaking tornadic activity with substantial loss of life and destruction of property. While a waning La Nina and other atmospheric teleconnections have been implicated in the development of these extreme weather events, a quantitative assessment of their causes is still lacking. This study uses high resolution (1/4 lat/lon) GEOS-5 AGCM experiments to quantify the role of SSTs and soil moisture in the development of the extreme weather activity with a focus on April - the month of peak tornadic activity. The simulations, consisting of 22-member ensembles of three-month long simulations (initialized March 1st) reproduce the main features of the observed large-scale changes including the below-normal temperature and above-normal precipitation in the Central US, and the hot and dry conditions to the south. Various sensitivity experiments are conducted to separate the roles of the SST, soil moisture and the initial atmospheric conditions in the development and predictability of the atmospheric conditions (wind shear, moisture, etc.) favoring the severe weather activity and flooding.

Schubert, S.↗

Statistical study of the correlation of hard X-ray and type III radio bursts in solar flares

A large number of hard X-ray events which occurred during the maximum of solar cycle 21 have been analyzed in order to study their correlation with type III bursts. It is found that the distribution of occurrences of hard X-ray bursts correlated with type III radio bursts is significantly different from the distribution of all hard X-ray bursts. This result is consistent with the assumption that the hard X-ray and type III intensities are somewhat correlated. A bivariate distribution function of the burst intensities is fitted to the data and is used to determine that the typical ratio of X-ray intensity to type II intensity is about 10 and that the ratio of the number of X-ray producing-electrons to type III-producing electrons is about 1000. Three models which have been proposed to explain the relation between the accelerated hard X-ray and type III-producing electrons are examined in the context of these observations.

Hamilton, Russell J.↗

PSL Icing Facility Upgrade Overview

The NASA Glenn Research Center Propulsion Systems Lab (PSL) was recently upgraded to perform engine inlet ice crystal testing in an altitude environment. The system installed 10 spray bars in the inlet plenum for ice crystal generation using 222 spray nozzles. As an altitude test chamber, the PSL is capable of simulating icing events at altitude in a groundtest facility. The system was designed to operate at altitudes from 4,000 to 40,000 ft at Mach numbers up to 0.8M and inlet total temperatures from -60 to +15 degF. This paper and presentation will be part of a series of presentations on PSL Icing and will cover the development of the icing capability through design, developmental testing, installation, initial calibration, and validation engine testing. Information will be presented on the design criteria and process, spray bar developmental testing at Cox and Co., system capabilities, and initial calibration and engine validation test. The PSL icing system was designed to provide NASA and the icing community with a facility that could be used for research studies of engine icing by duplicating in-flight events in a controlled ground-test facility. With the system and the altitude chamber we can produce flight conditions and cloud environments to simulate those encountered in flight. The icing system can be controlled to set various cloud uniformities, droplet median volumetric diameter (MVD), and icing water content (IWC) through a wide variety of conditions. The PSL chamber can set altitudes, Mach numbers, and temperatures of interest to the icing community and also has the instrumentation capability of measuring engine performance during icing testing. PSL last year completed the calibration and initial engine validation of the facility utilizing a Honeywell ALF502-R5 engine and has duplicated in-flight roll back conditions experienced during flight testing. This paper will summarize the modifications and buildup of the facility to accomplish these tests.

Griffin, Thomas A.↗

Modeling Extreme 'Carrington-Type' Space Weather Events Using Three-dimensional Global MHD Simulations

There is a growing concern over possible severe societal consequences related to adverse space weather impacts on man-made technological infrastructure. In the last two decades, significant progress has been made toward the first-principles modeling of space weather events, and three-dimensional (3-D) global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models have been at the forefront of this transition, thereby playing a critical role in advancing our understanding of space weather. However, the modeling of extreme space weather events is still a major challenge even for the modern global MHD models. In this study, we introduce a specially adapted University of Michigan 3-D global MHD model for simulating extreme space weather events with a Dst footprint comparable to the Carrington superstorm of September 1859 based on the estimate by Tsurutani et. al., (2003). Results are presented for a simulation run with "very extreme" constructed/idealized solar wind boundary conditions driving the magnetosphere. In particular, we describe the reaction of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and the associated induced geoelectric field on the ground to such extreme driving conditions. The model setup is further tested using input data for an observed space weather event of Halloween storm October 2003 to verify the MHD model consistence and to draw additional guidance for future work. This extreme space weather MHD model setup is designed specifically for practical application to the modeling of extreme geomagnetically induced electric fields, which can drive large currents in ground-based conductor systems such as power transmission grids. Therefore, our ultimate goal is to explore the level of geoelectric fields that can be induced from an assumed storm of the reported magnitude, i.e., Dst approx. = −1600 nT.

space weather↗

DisasterAWARE – A Global Alerting Platform for Flood Events

The rising number of flooding events combined with increased urbanization is contributing to significant economic losses due to damages to structures and infrastructures. From a risk reduction and resilience perspective, it is not only essential to forecast flood risk and potential impacts, but also to disseminate the information to stakeholders on the ground for rapid implementation of mitigation and response measures. This paper provides (i) an introduction to DisasterAWARE®, a global alerting system, that is used to disseminate flood risk information to stakeholders across the globe, and (ii) a discussion of the models implemented using earth observation data (Synthetic Aperture Radar and optical imagery) for near real-time assessment of flood severity and potential flood impacts to infrastructures. While the models are still in their nascent stage, a case study implementation of the models for the 2020 flooding event in Africa is presented to showcase the model integration with DisasterAWARE®.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Polar Vortex and Extreme Weather: The Beast from the East in Winter 2018

Public attention has recently focused on high-impact extreme weather events in midlatitudes that originate in the sub-Arctic. We investigate movements of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) and related changes in lower atmospheric circulation during the February-March 2018 “Beast from the East” cold winter event that dramatically affected much of Europe and north-central North America. This study demonstrates that the movement of the SPV is a key linkage in late winter subarctic and northern midlatitude extreme weather events. February–March 2018 saw two types of subarctic-midlatitude weather connections. In the first type, the SPV was displaced from the pole to lower latitudes over North America in February and then was found over northern Siberia in March. Mid-February and mid-March are examples of persistent near vertically aligned geopotential height structures of the atmospheric circulation. These structures over North America and Eurasia advected cold Arctic air southward. The second type of cold surface event was associated with a weak regional SPV and a sudden stratospheric warming event over Europe during the second half of February. These late winter linkage events that arise through dynamic instabilities of the SPV are more common in the last decade, but the potential role of enhanced Arctic amplification is uncertain.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗