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At least 1,765 records · Page 98

Component Assessment of the Electric Transmission Grid to Hurricanes

The increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events from climate change necessitates understanding impacts on critical infrastructure, particularly electrical transmission grids. One of the foundational concepts of a grid's resilience is its robustness to extreme weather events, such as hurricanes. Resilience of the electric grid to high wind speeds is predicated upon the location and physical characteristics of the system components. Previous modeling assessments of electric grid failure were done at the systems level with assumptions on location and type of specific components. To facilitate more explicit adaptation metrics, accurate component-level information is needed. In this study, we build and utilize a data set of location, physical characteristics, and age of transmission structures for nine counties in the Florida Panhandle. These component characteristics were then simulated for failure under a variety of scenarios using fragility curves. Eight hurricanes were modeled using Hazus from the Federal Emergency Management Administration and the resulting impact to the network was assessed. The network was generated using the transmission lines and towers, showing increasing impacts to network efficiency with larger storms. Although modern transmission structures are built under the more stringent extreme wind loading construction standards, the prevalence of older, wooden transmission structures throughout the region poses a substantial risk to reliable electricity transmission during tropical cyclone events from the Gulf of Mexico.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Testing the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich power spectrum of a halo model using hydrodynamical simulations

Statistical properties of large-scale cosmological structures serve as powerful tools for constraining the cosmological properties of our Universe. Tracing the gas pressure, the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich (tSZ) effect is a biased probe of mass distribution and, hence, can be used to test the physics of feedback or cosmological models. Therefore, it is crucial to develop robust modelling of hot gas pressure for applications to tSZ surveys. Since gas collapses into bound structures, it is expected that most of the tSZ signal is within halos produced by cosmic accretion shocks. Hence, simple empirical halo models can be used to predict the tSZ power spectra. In this study, we employed the HMx halo model to compare the tSZ power spectra with those of several hydrodynamical simulations: the Horizon suite and the Magneticum simulation. We examine various contributions to the tSZ power spectrum across different redshifts, including the one- and two-halo term decomposition, the amount of bound gas, the importance of different masses, and the electron pressure profiles. Our comparison of the tSZ power spectrum reveals discrepancies between the halo model and cosmological simulations that increase with redshift. We find a 20% to 50% difference between the measured and predicted tSZ angular power spectrum over the multipole range ℓ = 10 3 − 10 4 . Our analysis reveals that these differences are driven by the excess of power in the predicted two-halo term at low k and in the one-halo term at high k . At higher redshifts ( z ∼ 3), simulations indicate that more power comes from outside the virial radius than from inside, suggesting a limitation in the applicability of the halo model. We also observe differences in the pressure profiles, despite the fair level of agreement on the tSZ power spectrum at low redshift with the default calibration of the halo model. In conclusion, our study suggests that the properties of the halo model need to be carefully controlled against real or mock data to be proven useful for cosmological purposes.

Ayçoberry, Emma (ORCID:0000000292351195)↗

A description of structured waves in shock compressed particulate composites

Dynamic compression of composite materials is of scientific interest because the mechanical mismatch between internal phases challenges continuum theories. Typical assumptions about steady wave propagation and quasi-instantaneous state changes require reexamination along with the need for time-dependent models. To that end, data and models are presented here for the shock compression of an idealized particulate composite. To serve as a generic representative of this material class, a polymer matrix was filled with tungsten particles, ranging from 1 to 50 vol. %. This creates a simple microstructure containing randomly scattered particles with an extreme impedance mismatch to the binding matrix. These materials were parallel plate impact loaded by Al flyers traveling at 1.8–5.0 km/s. Velocimetry provided records of the equilibrium state and the compression wave structure for each case with trends quantified by an empirical fit. The same quantities were also studied as a function of the wave's propagation distance. A homogenized viscoelastic model then made it possible to progress from cataloging trends to making predictions. Starting from a Mie–Gruneisen equation of state, additional time varying terms were added to capture the transient response. After calibration, accurate predictions of the steady wave structure were possible.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Pyrochlore-type lanthanide titanates and zirconates: Synthesis, structural peculiarities, and properties

This contribution provides a thorough examination of the structural characteristics of pyrochlore-type lanthanide titanates and zirconates Ln2Ti2O7 and Ln2Zr2O7, across various length scales. This paper also examines their processing, interesting physical properties (electrical, magnetic, and thermal characteristics), and responses to high pressure and ion irradiation. Brief sections on the elemental oxides' crystal chemistry, pertinent phase diagrams, and energetics of defect formation are also provided. Pyrochlore-type Ln2Ti2O7 and Ln2Zr2O7 stand out as truly multifunctional materials. Moreover, they have emerged as fascinating materials due to magnetic geometrical frustration, arising from the ordering of magnetic Ln3+ and non-magnetic Ti4+ (or Zr4+) cations into separate, interpenetrating lattices of corner-sharing tetrahedra. This results in a diverse array of exotic magnetic ground states, such as spin-ice (e.g., Dy2Ti2O7 or Ho2Ti2O7) or quantum spin ice (e.g., Tb2Ti2O7), observed at both low and room temperatures. They also exhibit varied electrical and electrochemical characteristics. Some members such as Gd2Zr2O7, function as fast ion conductors with a conductivity (σ) of ≈10−2 S·cm−1 at 800 °C and activation energy (Ea) ranging from 0.85 to 1.52 eV, depending on the degree of structural disorder. Others, such as Gd2TiMoO7, are mixed ionic-electronic conductors with σ ≈ 25 S·cm−1 at 1000 °C, making them promising candidate materials for applications in energy conversion and storage devices and oxygen separation membranes. Their exceptionally low thermal conductivity (e.g., κ ∼ 1.1–1.7 W·m−1·K−1 between 700 and 1200 °C for Ln2Zr2O7), close to the glass-like lower limit of highly disordered solids, positions them as valuable materials for thermal barrier coatings. They can also effectively accommodate actinides (e.g., Pu, Np, Cm, Am) in solid solutions and sustain prolonged exposure to radiation due to alpha-decay events, while preserving the integrity of the periodic atomic structure. Proposed as major components in actinide-bearing ceramics, they contribute to the long-term immobilization and disposal of long-lived waste radionuclides from nuclear programs. Some of these properties are displayed simultaneously, opening avenues for new applications. Despite the wealth of data available in the literature, this review highlights the need for a better understanding of order/disorder processes in pyrochlore-type materials and the influence of the structural length scale on their physical and chemical properties. Recent experimental evidence has revealed that pyrochlore short-range structure is far more complex than originally thought. Moreover, pyrochlore local structure is now believed to include short-range, lower symmetry, ordered domains, such as the orthorhombic weberite-type of structure. Notably, short- and long-range structures appear decoupled across different length scales and temperature regimes, and these differences persist even in well-ordered samples. We believe that the pyrochlore structure offers a unique opportunity for examining the interplay between chemical composition, defect chemistry, and properties. In Memoriam: Rodney C. Ewing, Fondly Remembered.

Physics↗

Boundary-Aware Adversarial Learning Domain Adaption and Active Learning for Cross-Sensor Building Extraction

The use of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for building extraction from remote sensing images has been widely studied and many public datasets have been made available for accelerating development of these CNN models. Yet adapting pretrained models at scale in real-world scenarios remains a challenging task. The main barrier is that certain new labels are still needed to compensate for domain shifting between the labeled data and new images that potentially cover new geographic locations or that are from a different sensor. In this article, we propose to add informatively labeled samples from a new image pool under the paradigm of active learning. To select the most useful samples based on model uncertainty, we first tackle the problem of uncalibrated uncertainty estimation due to distribution shifting by adapting feature extractors with boundary-based adversarial learning. Calibrated uncertainty is used as the query criterion in the active learning process, where the most uncertain samples are selected for annotation and included for model retraining. The proposed workflow was tested with three data pairs in which each workflow represents a scenario often encountered in real-world applications, including adapting pretrained models to new images collected with different sensors or to new geographic areas where appearances and types of buildings are very different. Compared to several baselines, including random sampling, temperature scaling (a well-known uncertainty calibration technique), different query strategies, and active domain adaptation methods, the proposed workflow shows that strategically querying a smaller set of samples for labeling achieves comparable or better building extraction performance. The proposed method reduces the number of labeled samples required to achieve sufficient model accuracy, thus significantly reducing hundreds of person-hours for labeled data creation. In addition, we include a few considerations when deploying this workflow in a GPU cluster that can be easily adapted to achieve operational building extraction model retraining.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

User-Focused Tools to Enhance IT/OT Cyber Resilience within the Power Grid

The power grid is undergoing several changes that are increasing its complexity as nexuses between electric-gas, transmission-distribution, and energy-communications continue to become increasingly critical. This system is heavily dependent on communication infrastructure and controls, and it relies on humans in operational technology (OT) and information technology (IT) roles to manage the increasing breadth, depth, and speed of data. Many technical challenges have presented themselves and will need to be addressed to provide reliable grid operations. With increased reliance on distributed controls and communication infrastructure, cybersecurity becomes an inherent requirement. When considering current cyber-physical security solutions for the power grid, one can notice a clear divide between information technology and operation technology networks. However, in real-life applications, these networks are interdependent. This work presents results of interviews with key utility cybersecurity personnel, analyzes the results, and makes recommendations towards solution of existing technical and operational challenges realized. Existing workflows are presented, wireframe interviews are discussed, and tool requirements are described. The existence of easy-to-implement solutions, based on existing energy management systems, highlight the potential for real-life applications.

cybersecurity, resilience, user-centered design, p↗

Band Heater Heat Flux Characterization Using Inverse Heat Conduction Problem Models

Abstract An experimental apparatus was constructed to correlate water flowrate and temperature rise under an external band heater. Due to the physical characteristics of the band heater, its transient heating behavior is unknown. This paper investigates the application of inverse heat conduction problem (IHCP) methods to characterize the heat flux from the band heater. Three experiments with different heating times (5, 10, and 20 s) and no flowrate were conducted to measure the transient temperature under the 400 W band heater. Type-T thermocouples measure surface temperature at the centerline of the band heater. The experimental results are computed with five different heat conduction models. The models are chosen to identify how the heat flux response varies from a simplified to a realistic model. Additionally, the results of the experimental heat flux are compared to the manufacturer band heater data (58.9 kW/m2) for each model. The minimum time needed for the heater to fully energize the system is from 10 to 12 s. The residuals for each model are analyzed and used to evaluate the appropriateness of the five different models. The results show that the use of simpler models can achieve results similar to those of complex models, with less time and computational cost.

Engineering↗

Robust Solution Verification Experiments on Nonuniform Meshes

The activities of verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) provide a comprehensive means to assess the credibility of computational models. Within VVUQ, solution verification assesses numerical errors and evaluates whether the simulation is sufficiently accurate for its intended applications. As computational modeling gains traction in the development of complex, high-consequence systems, the need for robust solution verification intensifies, particularly because experimental data for these systems are often limited. This work examines improvements in the robustness of Richardson extrapolation (RE), a method commonly used in solution verification to study the discretization error of computational models using a power law. Nonuniform mesh refinement is discussed alongside other pollutants that affect the robustness of the power law model. Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) is proposed as a robust strategy to address the uncertainty generated by nonuniform mesh refinement. An exploratory computational fluid dynamics (CFD) study of a 2D planar Poiseuille flow is conducted to determine if nonuniform mesh noise can be modeled with this MLE approach for more robust RE.

Weinmeister, Justin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000160090237↗

Temperature uncertainty modelling with proxy structural data as geostatistical constraints for well siting: an example applied to Granite Springs Valley, NV, USA

Utilizing existing temperature and structural geology information around Granite Springs Valley, Nevada, we build 3D stochastic temperature models with the aims of evaluating the 3D uncertainty of temperature and choosing between candidate exploration well locations. The data used to support the modelling are measured temperatures and structural proxies from 3D geologic modelling (distance to fault, distance to fault intersections and terminations, Coulomb stress change and dilation tendency), the latter considered ‘secondary’ data. Two stochastic geostatistical techniques are explored for incorporating the structural proxies: cosimulation and local varying mean. With both the cosimulation and local varying mean methods, many equally-likely temperature models (i.e. realizations) are produced, from which temperature probability profiles are calculated at candidate well locations. To aid in choosing between the candidate locations, two quantities summarize the temperature probabilities: V prior and entropy. V prior quantifies the likelihood for economic temperatures at each candidate location, whereas entropy identifies where new information has the most potential to reduce uncertainty. In general, the cosimulation realizations have smoother spatial structure, and extrapolate high temperatures at candidate locations that are located along the direction of the longest spatial correlation, which are down dip from existing temperature logs. The smooth realizations result in tight temperature probability profiles that are easier to interpret, but they have unrealistic temperature reversals in some locations because of the dipping ellipsoid shape created and that the cosimulation technique does not enforce a conductive geothermal gradient as a baseline (i.e. linearly increasing temperature with depth). The local varying mean results produce realizations with more realistic geothermal gradients, with temperatures increasing downward since a depth-temperature relationship is included. However, because they have much noisier spatial nature compared to cosimulation, it is harder to interpret the temperature probability profiles. The different local varying mean results allow the geologist to determine which proxy (e.g. dilation v. distance to fault termination) should be used given the specific geothermal system. In general, V prior from local varying mean results identify locations that are close to high values for the structural proxies: areas with higher probabilities for higher temperatures. The entropy results identify where uncertainty is greatest and therefore new drilling information could be most useful. Though these techniques provide useful information, even when applied to areas of sparse data, our comparison of these two techniques demonstrates the need for new geothermal geostatistics techniques that combine the advantages of these two methods and that are tailored to the spatial uncertainty issues inherent in geothermal exploration.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Photometric Redshifts for Next-Generation Surveys

Photometric redshifts are essential in studies of both galaxy evolution and cosmology, as they enable analyses of objects too numerous or faint for spectroscopy. The Rubin Observatory, Euclid, and Roman Space Telescope will soon provide a new generation of imaging surveys with unprecedented area coverage, wavelength range, and depth. To take full advantage of these data sets, further progress in photometric redshift methods is needed. In this review, we focus on the greatest common challenges and prospects for improvement in applications of photometric redshifts to the next generation of surveys: ∙ Gains in performance (i.e., the precision of redshift estimates for individual galaxies) could greatly enhance studies of galaxy evolution and some probes of cosmology. ∙ Improvements in characterization (i.e., the accurate recovery of redshift distributions of galaxies in the presence of uncertainty on individual redshifts) are urgently needed for cosmological measurements with next-generation surveys. To achieve both of these goals, improvements in the scope and treatment of the samples of spectroscopic redshifts that make high-fidelity photometric redshifts possible will also be needed. For the full potential of the next generation of surveys to be reached, the characterization of redshift distributions must improve by roughly an order of magnitude compared with the current state of the art, requiring progress on a wide variety of fronts. We conclude by presenting a speculative evaluation of how photometric redshift methods and the collection of the necessary spectroscopic samples may improve by the time near-future surveys are completed.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

UAS Edge Computing of Energy Infrastructure Damage Assessment

Energy infrastructure assessments are needed within 72 hours of natural disasters, and previous data collection methods have proven too slow. We demonstrate a scalable end-to-end solution using a prototype unmanned aerial system that performs on-the-edge detection, classification (i.e., damaged or undamaged), and geo-location of utility poles. The prototype is suitable for disaster response because it requires no local communication infrastructure and is capable of autonomous missions. Collections before, during, and after Hurricane Ida in 2021 were used to test the system. The system delivered an F1 score of 0.65 operating with a 2.7 s/frame processing speed with the YOLOv5 large model and an F1 score of 0.55 with a 0.48 s/frame with the YOLOv5 small model. Geo-location uncertainty in the bottom half of the frame was ~8 m, mostly driven by error in camera pointing measurement. With additional training data to improve performance and detect additional types of features, a fleet of similar drones could autonomously collect actionable post-disaster data.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

HERO WEC V1.0 - WEC-Sim Model

This zip file contains the files that are needed to simulate NREL's HERO WEC (hydraulic and electric reverse osmosis wave energy converter). This requires the user to have already installed WEC-Sim. In addition to the standard toolboxes that are required to run WEC-Sim the user will also need the Simscape Fluids and Simscape Driveline packages. In the zip file you will find the following: - HEROV1_HPTO.slx: Simulink-based WEC Sim model of the first gen (V1.0) Hydraulic PTO (power take-off) that was designed for the HERO WEC - wecSimInputFile.m: Input file needed to run the model - userDefinedFunctionsMCR.m: MCR (multi condition run) script that is needed if a use wants to simulate multiple wave conditions. - geometry (folder): Includes the geometry file that is needed for visualization - hydroData (folder): Includes the required WAMIT data to run WEC-Sim

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

EV Watts Public Database

With the rapid increase in vehicle electrification, there is a need for up-to-date, publicly available national data to understand end user charging and driving patterns, as well as vehicle and infrastructure performance, to inform research planning. Energetics worked with various partners to collect and analyze plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) and electric vehicle supply equipment (EVSE) data from 2019 to 2022. All sensitive attributes have been removed from this publicly available dataset. Researchers from one of the partner national labs under non-disclosure agreement (NDA) can request access to additional attributes by reaching out to evwattsdata@energetics.com.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Seismic Tomographic Modeling of the Crust and Upper Mantle beneath Israel and the Middle East: Improved Resolution through Optimized Model Parameterization

Accurate regional seismic travel-time (RSTT) predictions rely on regional phases (e.g., Pg, Lg, Pn, Sn ) to account for 3D effects in the crust and upper mantle that are not captured by 1D models traditionally used for real-time location. The RSTT prediction model accounts for regional-scale crust and upper mantle structure globally by incorporating regional seismic phases into its travel-time calculations. Previous versions of the RSTT model have used a constant grid cell size of 1°. To improve the tomographic accuracy of recovering velocity structure at regional scales, we, in this study, perform data-driven grid refinement on the RSTT model down to a 0.125° grid (~14 km) in pursuit of two main goals: (1) to test the limits of RSTT capability and accuracy of determined velocity structure through variable grid refinement and (2) to image smaller structures in Israel and the Middle East and illuminate upper mantle dynamics operating in this complex tectonic area. We investigate the effects of model parameterization as grid cell size decreases and the trade-offs between recovered velocity structures. Our final dataset includes 4751 events and 499 stations that recorded 79,344 Pn and 7489 Pg . The variable grid refinement method allows recovery of finer-scale velocity structures and reduces travel-time residuals in areas with the highest data coverage. At smaller grid cell sizes, longer paths need to be upweighted to stabilize the inversion. Results illuminate tectonic features undefined in coarser grid-size models; in particular, we observe mantle perturbations related to the subduction zone around the Cyprian arc and crustal anomalies near the Dead Sea fault and throughout the Anatolian plate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Energy Intensity Baselining and Tracking Guidance

Each company joining the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Better Buildings, Better Plants Program (Better Plants) commits to establishing an energy consumption and energy intensity (EI) baseline and to tracking its energy performance over a 10-year period against that baseline. The baseline must reflect a company’s energy consumption over a 12-month period, covering all its U.S.-based operations. Energy consumption is calculated by fuel type in terms of primary energy (also known as source energy). EI is broadly defined as the amount of energy consumed per unit of output produced. For this guidance document and for the program, the term energy performance represents an evaluation of a facility’s capacity to use energy efficiently. Metrics used to assess a facility’s energy performance can include EI, energy consumption, improvements in EI, etc. Establishing an energy baseline and tracking system is a critical first step in effectively managing energy use. Developing a baseline can help a company understand energy use within the corporation and give it a point of comparison to evaluate future efforts to improve energy performance. It can also support efforts to validate a company’s energy management activities, improve comparative analyses when using benchmarks, and help in predicting future energy needs. In addition, a company that normalizes its performance data can determine highly defensible measures of energy savings generated through implemented energy efficiency projects. Establishing a baseline and tracking energy performance is also a requirement for ISO 50001 certification. Although basic energy data can be collected through utility bills, most manufacturers will have to perform additional analyses to develop accurate and robust energy baselines and tracking systems. Energy is consumed in many ways within the manufacturing sector and can come from multiple sources. Energy is sometimes generated and sold to other parties or captured and reused on-site. External events can exert a significant impact on a facility or company’s energy use independent of any purposeful efforts to improve energy efficiency. Operational changes, such as production shifts—which may be inevitable for some companies over the 10-year period covered by the program—can also make a big difference in energy use. Since Better Plants asks companies to account for all their U.S.-based operations, mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures can also have significant implications for a company’s energy metrics. This document aims to demystify the sometimes complex baselining process. It devotes special attention to the task of normalizing and adjusting energy consumption to account for external factors, such as weather and production changes. A key recommendation is that companies use regression analysis to normalize their energy consumption data whenever possible. Regression analysis is a statistical technique that estimates the dependence of a variable (i.e., energy use in the context of Better Plants) on one or more independent variables such as ambient temperature, while controlling for the influence of other variables at the same time. A properly developed regression analysis can provide a reliable estimate of energy savings resulting from energy improvement strategies and projects by accounting for the effects of variables such as annual production levels and weather. DOE has developed a companion Energy Performance Indicator software tool (EnPI) to simplify the baselining process. This tool can run regression models, calculate changes in EI at the facility level, and automatically compile facility-level data into a corporate-wide metric. Note that although the relevant equations used to calculate EI are provided in this document, the EnPI tool will automatically perform most calculations for the user. Additionally, Better Plants Partners (Partners) can call on their Technical Account Manager (TAM) to help them establish a baseline and assist with the necessary calculations to track progress.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A new era of observationally-infused E3SM: GANs for unifying imagery archives

This paper presents an idea to develop a “Rosetta Stone” for unifying observations from various satellite or remote sensors into a common format that would vastly advance our ability to exploit existing datasets for improving predictability within Earth System Models (ESMs). While the applications of such a unified archive are broad, we believe it will be a critical step toward ushering in a new generation of ESMs that are richly informed, guided by, and validated by extensive observational data. With the vast quantity of both remotely-sensed and in-situ data streams available and coming online, new approaches are needed that can harmonize and thus fully exploit these expensive datasets. While we present the broader idea, we point to examples of applications that impact the water cycle and its representation in ESMs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A Step Toward Working with Untrusted Ground Stations

We are witnessing a shift toward outsourcing satellite and ground station services to third-party commercial entities. As with any enterprise, these third parties can be vulnerable to cyber compromise, including image tampering and deepfake injection. The multimedia community is beginning to establish standards and technology to enable authenticity verification of multimedia created and edited by others. While appealing to the remote sensing domain, the nature of raw satellite imagery is incompatible with the proposed change verification tools, resulting in the need for a means to validate updates made to image products. We present a simple method for verifying a specific class of algorithms. Our inverse processing approach eliminates the need to see the original image as the reversed data can be checked against an original digital signature. We demonstrate our approach on basic image restoration routines and conclude with a discussion on open challenges and next steps.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Expanded Validation of Uranium Systems with the KENO Monte Carlo Codes and SCALE 6.2.4 [Slides]

There is likely a trend in bias for uranium-fueled systems as a function of spectrum, but probably not as a function of enrichment. Some enrichment trends appear, but are potentially the result of outlier experimental results; further investigation is needed where possible. There are good examples in this data of markedly different biases from different systems. Future work includes review and vetting for inclusion in the VALID library and analysis with TSUNAMI.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗