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NASA NTRS2015

Variability and Predictability of West African Droughts. A Review in the Role of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

The Sahel experienced a severe drought during the 1970s and 1980s after wet periods in the 1950s and 1960s. Although rainfall partially recovered since the 1990s, the drought had devastating impacts on society. Most studies agree that this dry period resulted primarily from remote effects of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies amplified by local land surface-atmosphere interactions. This paper reviews advances made during the last decade to better understand the impact of global SST variability on West African rainfall at interannual to decadal time scales. At interannual time scales, a warming of the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific/Indian Oceans results in rainfall reduction over the Sahel, and positive SST anomalies over the Mediterranean Sea tend to be associated with increased rainfall. At decadal time scales, warming over the tropics leads to drought over the Sahel, whereas warming over the North Atlantic promotes increased rainfall. Prediction systems have evolved from seasonal to decadal forecasting. The agreement among future projections has improved from CMIP3 to CMIP5, with a general tendency for slightly wetter conditions over the central part of the Sahel, drier conditions over the western part, and a delay in the monsoon onset. The role of the Indian Ocean, the stationarity of teleconnections, the determination of the leader ocean basin in driving decadal variability, the anthropogenic role, the reduction of the model rainfall spread, and the improvement of some model components are among the most important remaining questions that continue to be the focus of current international projects.

West Africa↗

NASA NTRS2015

Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment, SAGE III on ISS, An Earth Science Mission on the International Space Station, Schedule Risk Analysis, A Project Perspective

The presentation provides insight into the schedule risk analysis process used by the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment III on the International Space Station Project. The presentation focuses on the schedule risk analysis process highlighting the methods for identification of risk inputs, the inclusion of generic risks identified outside the traditional continuous risk management process, and the development of tailored analysis products used to improve risk informed decision making.

Bonine, Lauren↗

NASA NTRS2016

Retention of Compressive Residual Stresses Introduced by Shot Peening in a Powder Metal Disk Superalloy

The fatigue lives of disk superalloys can be increased by shot peening their surfaces, to induce compressive residual stresses near the surface that impede cracking there. As disk application temperatures increase for improved efficiency, the persistence of these beneficial stresses could be impaired, especially with continued fatigue cycling. The objective of this work was to study the retention of residual stresses introduced by shot peening, when subjected to fatigue and high temperatures. Fatigue specimens of powder metallurgy processed nickel-base disk superalloy ME3 were prepared with consistent processing and heat treatment. They were then shot peened using varied conditions. Strain-controlled fatigue cycles were run at room temperature and 704 C, to allow re-assessment of residual stresses.

fatigue↗

NASA NTRS2019

Potential Improvements to the Nuclear Safety and Launch Approval Process for Nuclear Reactors Utilized for Space Power and Propulsion Applications

This study examines potential improvements that could be made to the nuclear safety and launch approval process for fission reactors to reduce the associated uncertainties in cost and schedule while continuing to ensure public safety and environmental protection. It concentrates on the launch approval and mission safety of fission power and propulsion applications of nuclear energy. Improvements to the launch approval process for radioisotope power systems (RPSs) are being considered elsewhere but are acknowledged throughout the report. The study considered technical, process, and organizational improvements to the launch approval processes. The study exclusively evaluated reactors that would not be started up prior to achieving a “sufficiently high orbit,” per United Nations (UN) Resolution 47/68.Potential criticality accidents were considered that could occur during a launch failure or abort or during reentry. Numerous scenarios were examined that might involve one or more Earth flybys as well as potential transportation missions that could intentionally return an active, or previously active fission reactor to Earth orbit. The Study Group was guided in its deliberations according to a number of fundamental principles. These included the paramount importance of adequate and appropriate levels of public safety and environmental protection as well as the importance of the inclusion of independent scientific, engineering, and safety reviews of the applications and proposals as a critical part of the process. Also considered was the need for the development of launch approval processes that might be different, depending upon the source of the application for launch approval, whether it be derived as a governmental launch, a commercial launch, or a hybrid/combination of the two. It is clear that all launches of nuclear reactors into space should have similar safety requirements; however, the safety review effort and the details of the analysis that are required should be commensurate with the potential hazards and the actual risk, which may differ based on the reactor design and its intended purpose. Finally, the study aimed at ensuring that whatever processes and procedures are developed should maximize the sufficiency, simplicity, and transparency of the processes. The Study Group reached five Conclusions and makes thirteen Recommendations. The Conclusions and Recommendations presented here are extensions of those presented previously in other studies. This report attempts to add specificity to the actions that need to be taken in order to move forward with successful space fission reactor programs. Without action to address the perceived and real problems in the launch approval process, designers and mission managers will be reluctant to commit the resources necessary to make space fission reactors a reality.

Camp, Allen↗

NASA NTRS2022

Leveraging Pre-storm Soil Moisture Estimates for Enhanced Land Surface Model Calibration in Ungauged Hydrologic Basins

Despite long-standing efforts, hydrologists still lack robust tools for calibrating land surface model (LSM) streamflow estimates within ungauged basins. Using surface soil moisture estimates from the Soil Moisture Active Passive Level 4 Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product, precipitation observations, and streamflow gauge measurements for 617 medium-scale (200-10,000 km2) basins in the contiguous United States, we measure the temporal (Spearman) rank correlation between antecedent (i.e., pre-storm) surface soil moisture (ASM) and the storm-scale runoff coefficient (RC; the fraction of storm-scale precipitation accumulation converted into streamflow). In humid and semi-humid basins, this rank correlation is shown to be sufficiently strong to allow for the substitution of storm-scale RC observations (available only in basins that are both lightly regulated and gauged) with high-quality ASM values (available quasi-globally from L4_SM) in streamflow calibration procedures. Using this principle, we define a new, basin-wise LSM streamflow calibration approach based on L4_SM alone and successfully apply it to identify LSM configurations that produce a high rank correlation with observed RC. However, since the approach cannot detect RC bias, it is less successful in identifying LSM configurations with low mean-absolute error. Plain Text Summary Accurately forecasting the fraction of rainfall that runs off into streams, as opposed to infiltrates into the soil, is critical for flash-flood prediction, water-resource monitoring, and tracking the transport of nutrients from agricultural fields into local waterways. Such forecasting is typically performed by hydrologic models that attempt to represent the physical processes responsible for surface runoff generation. However, to provide accurate streamflow forecasts, these models typically need to be calibrated against actual streamflow observations. This is problematic given the relatively poor, and declining, global availability of stream gauges. This paper presents a novel model calibration strategy that uses soil moisture from remote sensing and numerical modeling in place of streamflow observations during calibration. This transition has significant practical advantages because, unlike streamflow observations, the soil moisture data are continuously available across space. Our results demonstrate that this new approach can significantly improve hydrologic models within humid and semi-humid basins lacking sufficient ground-based instrumentation for traditional streamflow calibration.

hydrologic models↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

OCI Geolocation Evaluation and Refinement Using Landsat Control Points

The Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, and ocean Ecosystem (PACE) mission is NASA’s next investment in ocean biology, clouds, and aerosol data records. A key feature of PACE is the inclusion of an advanced satellite radiometer, Ocean Color Instrument (OCI), a global mapping radiometer that combines multispectral and hyperspectral remote sensing. The geolocation processing is performed for OCI using spacecraft navigation data and an instrument geometry model. To evaluate the geolocation accuracy for OCI and develop refinements to the processing methods, control point matching using Landsat data has been implemented as a step in the operational processing of OCI data at the Science Data Segment. This processing provides between 200 and 300 high-quality matchups per day with good global and geometric distribution, allowing rapid evaluation of the OCI geolocation accuracy. The results provided an early indication of the overall quality of the geolocation processing and of specific aspects needing improvement. A standard set of granules was identified to support rapid implementation and testing of geolocation refinements, and this approach has been highly successful in improving the geolocation processing accuracy to meet the science requirements. The evaluation will continue throughout the mission to ensure the ongoing accuracy of geolocation. This paper describes the control point matching methodology, the approach to development of the geolocation processing refinements, and the recent results.

PACE↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

OCI Geolocation Evaluation and Refinement Using Landsat Control Points

PACE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Condition-Based Maintenance of a Circulating Water System of a Canadian Nuclear Power Plant using Machine Learning and Statistical Tools

Canada Deuterium Uranium pressurized-heavy-water reactors (PHWR) are a type of nuclear power plant that generate clean and reliable energy. The scope of this work is to automate data analysis methodologies to inform a condition-based maintenance strategy of a circulating water system (CWS) of a PHWR. The multiunit CWS provides a continuous supply of water to cool steam condensers, even during transient scenarios, thereby improving the thermal efficiency. This work aims to develop a machine learning (ML) based approach to detect anomalies in heterogeneous data of a CWS in a PHWR to help inform a predictive maintenance strategy. The heterogeneous data include textual and numeric time series data for a PHWR. Natural-language-processing (NLP)-based models are used to analyze textual data contained in work orders and operator logs and an event-timeseries correlation detection method is applied to assist anomalies diagnoses for CWS. An ML model Robust Linear Model (RLM) is also used to remove the seasonal variations in the system variable distributions based on distributions of environmental variables. A machine learning model, Density-Based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (DBSCAN), trained on both original data and data without any seasonal variations will then be used to detect if an anomaly exists. Thus, by moving to an automated methodology to detect, classify, and forecast anomalies, the maintenance strategy would be based on component condition instead of a time-based schedule.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

DOE CESER 6 GHz Interference Study

DOE CESER has sponsored Idaho National Laboratory (INL) to conduct an objective and independent study of potential 6 GHz interference from outdoor operation of unlicensed devices in the 6 GHz band on fixed service (FS) microwave communication links operated by electrical sector incumbents in that band. INL is collaborating with University of Notre Dame (UND), Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), Lockard & White, Southern Company, and AT&T, to gather data with real-world 6 GHz interference experiments and identify (1) the potential for interference from unlicensed devices and (2) the interference necessary to cause harm to the incumbents. In addition to the functional assessment, a security assessment of the FCC mandated Automatic Frequency Coordination (AFC) System to regulate use of unlicensed 6 GHz standard power devices is also being conducted. A major objective is to create a science-based and defensible methodology used to produce the necessary data and to derive objective conclusions. This proven methodology can then be used to produce objective data and conclusions for other spectrum bands with similar incumbent uses including 4.4 – 4.9 GHz and 7.125 – 7.4 GHz, identified in the reconciliation bill that was adopted on July 4, 2025, as well as the National Spectrum Strategy discussions that are ongoing. This report contains 6 GHz field experiments and findings in the following real-world scenarios with commercial unlicensed standard power (SP) 6 GHz devices regulated by Automated Frequency Coordination (AFC): • University of Notre Dame (UND) Stadium with a capacity of 80,000 spectators, where Wi-Fi operating in 6 GHz has been deployed recently • Southern Company 6 GHz FS microwave link between Columbus and Fortson, Georgia Following are the following key findings from this study. 1. The AFC is under-protective of FS when line-of-sight exists along the path centerline. Data collected at Southern’s 6 GHz fixed link site shows significant erosion of as much as 21.4-24.4 dB of under-protection that can lead to potential service degradation under typical operating conditions. This first key finding is most likely the result of erroneous use of the RF propagation model. INL will collaborate with EPRI and the AFC Functional Requirements Working Group to submit a change request to the WinnForum TS-1014 standard towards correct use of the propagation model by the AFC. 2. There is additive interference effect of about 3 dB from nearly equal power interferers measured from simultaneous operation of two SP AP's operating co-channel with the FS receive from different locations along the path. This second key finding should be used to add the impact of additive interference of operation of multiple APs in the same geographical area, to the next generation of AFCs. INL will collaborate with FCC on the need for the AFC to consider additive interference. We also recommend that additional experiments are conducted on 6 GHz spectrum interference to further improve the AFC operation as the number of outdoor Wi-Fi devices continues to increase. These proposed steps and recommendations will make the co-existence of the incumbents and the 6 GHz outdoor Wi-Fi providers possible without any impact on the incumbents with a win-win outcome for all.

6 GHz↗

NASA NTRS2007

Extravehicular Mobility Unit Penetration Probability from Micrometeoroids and Orbital Debris: Revised Analytical Model and Potential Space Suit Improvements

The NASA Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) micrometeoroid and orbital debris protection ability has recently been assessed against an updated, higher threat space environment model. The new environment was analyzed in conjunction with a revised EMU solid model using a NASA computer code. Results showed that the EMU exceeds the required mathematical Probability of having No Penetrations (PNP) of any suit pressure bladder over the remaining life of the program (2,700 projected hours of 2 person spacewalks). The success probability was calculated to be 0.94, versus a requirement of >0.91, for the current spacesuit s outer protective garment. In parallel to the probability assessment, potential improvements to the current spacesuit s outer protective garment were built and impact tested. A NASA light gas gun was used to launch projectiles at test items, at speeds of approximately 7 km per second. Test results showed that substantial garment improvements could be made, with mild material enhancements and moderate assembly development. The spacesuit s PNP would improve marginally with the tested enhancements, if they were available for immediate incorporation. This paper discusses the results of the model assessment process and test program. These findings add confidence to the continued use of the existing NASA EMU during International Space Station (ISS) assembly and Shuttle Operations. They provide a viable avenue for improved hypervelocity impact protection for the EMU, or for future space suits.

Chase, Thomas D.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Engineered $\mathrm{Ru}$ on $\mathrm{HY}$ zeolite catalyst for continuous and selective hydrodeoxygenation of lignin phenolics to cycloalkanes under moderate conditions

Here we report a continuous selective hydrodeoxygenation (HDO) process of guaiacol conversion to cycloalkanes under 180 °C/1 MPa, which results in improved HDO chemistry for lignin-based jet fuel production. The incipient wetness impregnation method was modified to prepare an HY zeolite-supported Ru catalyst with better metal dispersion and acid site uniformity, which overcomes the low conversion and selectivity of previous literature. The modified catalyst (Ru-HY-60-MI) was tested in a continuous fixed bed reactor, resulting in increased HDO conversion of guaiacol to cycloalkanes compared to the unmodified catalyst. Pressure, temperature, and weight hourly space velocity-dependent tests validate guaiacol HDO over Ru-HY-60-MI catalyzed ring hydrogenation of guaiacol to 2-methoxycyclohexanol, acid-catalyzed demethoxylation and dehydration to cyclohexene, and further hydrogenation of cyclohexene to cyclohexane. These experiments enable exploring a continuous HDO process, demonstrate effectiveness for other ß-ß and a-O-4 lignin representatives and real lignin bio-oil, and pave the way towards commercialization of lignin-based jet fuel

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2020

U.S. Effort Support to Examinations at Fukushima - Meeting Notes with Updated Information Requests (FY2020)

Much is still not known about the end-state of core materials in each unit that was operating on March 11, 2011 at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (Daiichi). Information obtained from Daiichi is required to inform Decontamination and Decommissioning (D&D) activities, improving the ability of the Tokyo Electric Power Company Holdings, Incorporated (TEPCO Holdings) to characterize potential hazards and to ensure the safety of workers involved with cleanup activities. This document, which has been updated to include Fiscal Year 2020 (FY2020) information, summarizes results from a U.S. effort to review Daiichi information and extract insights to enhance the safety of existing and future nuclear power plant designs. This U.S. effort, which was initiated in 2014 by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), is completed by a group of experts in reactor safety and plant operations that identify examination needs and evaluate recent Daiichi examination data to address these needs. Since its inception, comprehensive annual reports were issued that document significant safety insights being obtained in areas of special emphasis: system and component performance, radionuclide surveys and sampling, debris end-state location, combustible gas effects, and plant operations and maintenance. In addition to reducing uncertainties related to severe accident modeling progression, these insights have and continue to be used to update guidance for severe accident prevention, mitigation, and emergency planning. Reduced uncertainties in modeling the events at Daiichi improve the realism of reactor safety evaluations that inform future D&D activities. For FY2020, it was decided that the program would gain more benefit from a more concise report that emphasizes new information and insights that affect prior findings and recommendations from the U.S. experts participating in this effort. A key aspect of prior U.S. efforts, the updated list of information requests, is included in this letter report to ensure that they are transmitted to organizations within Japan. In addition, findings and associated recommendations are provided regarding information presented by TEPCO Holdings, Nuclear Damage Compensation and Decommissioning Facilitation Corporation (NDF), and the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA). This letter report also continues to emphasize how information obtained from the affected reactors at Daiichi has been and will continue to be used to update severe accident management strategies, improve maintenance activities (especially in areas of radiation protection) and reduce uncertainties in systems analysis code models. In addition, recommendations are included that would expand the use of this information to provide insights regarding maintenance, radiation protection, design, and siting activities of existing and new reactors.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improved Guarantees for Optimal Nash Equilibrium Seeking and Bilevel Variational Inequalities

We consider a class of hierarchical variational inequality (VI) problems that subsumes VI-constrained optimization and several other problem classes, including the optimal solution selection problem and the optimal Nash equilibrium (NE) seeking problem. Our main contribution is threefold. (i) We consider bilevel VIs with monotone and Lipschitz continuous mappings and devise a single-timescale iteratively regularized extragradient method, named IR-EG 𝚖,𝚖 . We improve the existing iteration complexity results for addressing both bilevel VI and VI-constrained convex optimization problems. (ii) Under the strong monotonicity of the outer-level mapping, we develop a method named IR-EG 𝚜,𝚖 and derive faster guarantees than those in (i). We also study the iteration complexity of this method under a constant regularization parameter. These results appear to be new for both bilevel VIs and VI-constrained optimization. (iii) To our knowledge, complexity guarantees for computing the optimal NE in nonconvex settings do not exist. Motivated by this lacuna, we consider VI-constrained nonconvex optimization problems and devise an inexactly projected gradient method, named IPR-EG, where the projection onto the unknown set of equilibria is performed using IR-EG 𝚜,𝚖 with a prescribed termination criterion and an adaptive regularization parameter. We obtain new complexity guarantees in terms of a residual map and an infeasibility metric for computing a stationary point. Here, we validate the theoretical findings using preliminary numerical experiments for computing the best and the worst NEs.

bilevel optimization↗

NASA NTRS2021

Using Intelligent Targeting to increase the science return of a Smart Ice Storm Hunting Radar

Smart Ice Cloud Sensing (SMICES) is a small-sat concept in which a radar intelligently targets ice storms based on information collected by a lookahead radiometer. Often space observations are performed by continuously collecting data from an instrument aimed at nadir (e.g. directly below the space platform). However, if the platform has the ability to assess science utility of features being overflown, an intelligent measurement scheme can improve science return. This can be achieved by controlling the on/off state of the instrument if it is not able to continuously operate (e.g. due to energy or thermal constraints), and by allowing the instrument to view off nadir if it has pointing capabilities.In the case of SMICES, power constraints and the rarity of storms means that with blind nadir targeting SMICES would collect a limited amount of ice storm radar data. The algorithms proposed acquire measurements to maximize acquired high interest storms while concurrently collecting a background sampling of all features. We use a cloud classification system to identify five different cloud types. Six algorithms ranging from “blind” to more selective are described and results from evaluation on a dataset of 13 ground swaths covering 72,399,600 km2 of data are presented. This data is from high quality science simulations that contain all five cloud types and multiple storms. When utilizing the radiometer’s lookahead and the full range of the radar the results show a 23.7x and 1.9x increase over the base algorithm in the most and second most important cloud types respectively.

Cooke, Caitlyn↗

NASA NTRS2018

The Integrated Impact of Diet on Human Immune Response, the Gut Microbiota, and Nutritional Status During Adaptation to a Spaceflight Analog

Spaceflight impacts human physiology, including well documented immune system dysregulation. Diet, immune function, and the microbiome are interlinked, but diet is the only one of these factors that we have the ability to easily, and significantly, alter on Earth or during flight. As we understand dietary impacts on physiology more thoroughly, we may then improve the spaceflight diet to improve crew health and potentially reduce spaceflight-associated physiological alterations. It is expected that increasing the consumption of fruits and vegetables and bioactive compounds (e.g., omega-3 fatty acids, lycopene, flavonoids) and therefore enhancing overall nutritional intake from the nominal shelf-stable, fully-processed space food system could serve as a countermeasure to improve human immunological profiles, the taxonomic profile of the gut microbiota, and nutritional status, especially where currently dysregulated during spaceflight. This interdisciplinary study will determine the effect of the current shelf-stable spaceflight diet compared to an "enhanced" shelf-stable spaceflight diet (25% more foods rich in omega-3 fatty acids, lycopene, flavonoids, and more fruits, and vegetables in general). The NASA Human Exploration Research Analog (HERA) 2017 missions, consisting of four 45-day missions with closed chamber confinement and realistic mission simulation in a high-fidelity mock space vehicle, will serve as a platform to replicate mission stressors and the effects on crew biochemistry, immunology, and the gut microbiome. Bio sampling of crewmembers is scheduled for selected intervals pre- and in-mission. Data collection also includes dietary intake recording. Outcome measures will include immune markers (e.g., peripheral leukocyte distribution, inflammatory cytokine profiles, T cell function), the taxonomic and metatranscriptomic profile of the gut microbiome, and nutritional status biomarkers and metabolites. Statistical evaluations will determine physiological and biochemical shifts in relation to nutrient intake and study phase. To date, sample collection has been completed for 2 crewmembers from the first mission, aka Campaign 4 Mission 1. Mission 2 was terminated after 22 days due to effects of Hurricane Harvey, and sample collection was not completed. Sample collection will continue for Campaign 4 Mission 3 and 4 prior to comprehensive sample analysis. Beneficial improvements will provide evidence of the impact of diet on crew health and adaptation to this spaceflight analog, and will aid in the design and development of more-efficient targeted dietary interventions for exploration missions.

Douglas, G. L.↗

NASA NTRS2005

High-Power Fiber Lasers Using Photonic Band Gap Materials

High-power fiber lasers (HPFLs) would be made from photonic band gap (PBG) materials, according to the proposal. Such lasers would be scalable in the sense that a large number of fiber lasers could be arranged in an array or bundle and then operated in phase-locked condition to generate a superposition and highly directed high-power laser beam. It has been estimated that an average power level as high as 1,000 W per fiber could be achieved in such an array. Examples of potential applications for the proposed single-fiber lasers include welding and laser surgery. Additionally, the bundled fibers have applications in beaming power through free space for autonomous vehicles, laser weapons, free-space communications, and inducing photochemical reactions in large-scale industrial processes. The proposal has been inspired in part by recent improvements in the capabilities of single-mode fiber amplifiers and lasers to produce continuous high-power radiation. In particular, it has been found that the average output power of a single strand of a fiber laser can be increased by suitably changing the doping profile of active ions in its gain medium to optimize the spatial overlap of the electromagnetic field with the distribution of active ions. Such optimization minimizes pump power losses and increases the gain in the fiber laser system. The proposal would expand the basic concept of this type of optimization to incorporate exploitation of the properties (including, in some cases, nonlinearities) of PBG materials to obtain power levels and efficiencies higher than are now possible. Another element of the proposal is to enable pumping by concentrated sunlight. Somewhat more specifically, the proposal calls for exploitation of the properties of PBG materials to overcome a number of stubborn adverse phenomena that have impeded prior efforts to perfect HPFLs. The most relevant of those phenomena is amplified spontaneous emission (ASE), which causes saturation of gain and power at undesirably low levels, and scattering of light from dopants. In designing a given fiber laser for reduced ASE, care must be taken to maintain a correct fiber structure for eventual scaling to an array of many such lasers such that the interactions among all the members of the array would cause them to operate in phase lock. Hence, the problems associated with improving a single-fiber laser are not entirely separate from the bundling problem, and some designs for individual fiber lasers may be better than others if the fibers are to be incorporated into bundles. Extensive calculations, expected to take about a year, must be performed in order to determine design parameters before construction of prototype individual and fiber lasers can begin. The design effort can be expected to include calculations to optimize overlaps between the electromagnetic modes and the gain media and calculations of responses of PBG materials to electromagnetic fields. Design alternatives and physical responses that may be considered include simple PBG fibers with no intensity-dependent responses, PBG fibers with intensity- dependent band-gap shifting (see figure), and broad-band pumping made possible by use of candidate broad-band pumping media in place of the air or vacuum gaps used in prior PBG fibers.

DiDomenico, Leo↗

NASA NTRS2016

Disturbance and the Carbon Balance of US Forests: A Quantitative Review of Impacts from Harvests, Fires, Insects, and Droughts

Disturbances are a major determinant of forest carbon stocks and uptake. They generally reduce land carbon stocks but also initiate a regrowth legacy that contributes substantially to the contemporary rate of carbon stock increase in US forestlands. As managers and policy makers increasingly look to forests for climate protection and mitigation, and because of increasing concern about changes in disturbance intensity and frequency, there is a need for synthesis and integration of current understanding about the role of disturbances and other processes in governing forest carbon cycle dynamics, and the likely future of this and other sinks for atmospheric carbon. This paper aims to address that need by providing a quantitative review of the distribution, extent and carbon impacts of the major disturbances active in the US. We also review recent trends in disturbances, climate, and other global environmental changes and consider their individual and collective contributions to the US carbon budget now and in the likely future. Lastly, we identify some key challenges and opportunities for future research needed to improve current understanding, advance predictive capabilities, and inform forest management in the face of these pressures. Harvest is found to be the most extensive disturbance both in terms of area and carbon impacts, followed by fire, windthrow and bark beetles, and lastly droughts. Collectively these lead to the gross loss of about 200 Tg C y(exp -1) in live biomass annually across the conterminous US. At the same time, the net change in forest carbon stocks is positive (190 Tg C y(exp -1)), indicating not only forest resilience but also an apparently large response to growth enhancements such as fertilization by CO2 and nitrogen. Uncertainty about disturbance legacies, disturbance interactions, likely trends, and global change factors make the future of the US forest carbon sink unclear. While there is scope for management to enhance carbon sinks in US forests, tradeoffs with other values and uses are likely to significantly limit practical implementation. Continued and expanded remote sensing and field-based monitoring capabilities and manipulative experimentation are needed to improve understanding of the US forest carbon sink, and assess how disturbance processes are responding to the pressures of global environmental change. In addition, continued development and application of holistic, decision support tools that consider a range of forest values are needed to enable managers and policy makers to use the best available information for guiding forest resources now and into the future.

Williams, Christopher A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

PVDeg: Development of a Streamlined Tool for PV Degradation Modeling

The photovoltaic (PV) industry constantly aims for lower costs, higher-efficiency cells, and improved module designs. These trends lead to using new materials, designs, and manufacturing processes, resulting in a continually changing technological landscape. These changes can potentially introduce new, unknown degradation mechanisms and failure modes that are difficult to diagnose, analyze, test, and model. This introduces uncertainty into the expected lifetime of PV modules of 25 to 50 years. research efforts aim to achieve this while keeping performance degradation at a minimum for decades. This puts considerable pressure on improving the accuracy of long-term durability and reliability assessments. There is a need to organize the existing degradation data into an accessible format and to provide industry relevant tools for extrapolation from laboratory to field conditions. Because the core of this type of analysis involves calculations that are complicated but ubiquitous for many degradation processes, an enhanced predictive modeling framework will facilitate the analysis to help researchers keep up with the rapid pace of technological changes. In this work, we present an online tool that can be used to search for and analyze degradation information and extrapolate PV module performance and durability to field exposure. The tool will simplify many of the routine computational operations that are common to many degradation studies. The prediction tool will be built modular and published as open source, enabling users to expand on the existing framework. This repository will contain various degradation models and material parameters suitable for the reliability and durability assessment of materials and components deployed outdoors.

degradation↗