Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “conditional probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,765 records · Page 98
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2006

Probabilistic Structural Evaluation of Uncertainties in Radiator Sandwich Panel Design

The Jupiter Icy Moons Orbiter (JIMO) Space System is part of the NASA's Prometheus Program. As part of the JIMO engineering team at NASA Glenn Research Center, the structural design of the JIMO Heat Rejection Subsystem (HRS) is evaluated. An initial goal of this study was to perform sensitivity analyses to determine the relative importance of the input variables on the structural responses of the radiator panel. The desire was to let the sensitivity analysis information identify the important parameters. The probabilistic analysis methods illustrated here support this objective. The probabilistic structural performance evaluation of a HRS radiator sandwich panel was performed. The radiator panel structural performance was assessed in the presence of uncertainties in the loading, fabrication process variables, and material properties. The stress and displacement contours of the deterministic structural analysis at mean probability was performed and results presented. It is followed by a probabilistic evaluation to determine the effect of the primitive variables on the radiator panel structural performance. Based on uncertainties in material properties, structural geometry and loading, the results of the displacement and stress analysis are used as an input file for the probabilistic analysis of the panel. The sensitivity of the structural responses, such as maximum displacement and maximum tensile and compressive stresses of the facesheet in x and y directions and maximum VonMises stresses of the tube, to the loading and design variables is determined under the boundary condition where all edges of the radiator panel are pinned. Based on this study, design critical material and geometric parameters of the considered sandwich panel are identified.

Kuguoglu, Latife↗
NASA NTRS2020

Tidal Disruptions of Main Sequence Stars - II. Simulation Methodology and Stellar Mass Dependence of the Character of Full Tidal Disruptions

This paper introduces a series of papers presenting a quantitative theory for the tidal disruption of main-sequence stars by supermassive black holes. Using fully general relativistic hydrodynamics simulations and MESA-model initial conditions, we explore the pericenter-dependence of tidal disruption properties for eight stellar masses (0.15 < M_/M<10)and six black hole masses( ́10<MM105 105BH7). We present here the results most relevant to observations. The effects of internal stellar structure and relativity decouple for both the disruption cross section and the characteristic energy width of the debris. Moreover, the full disruption cross section is almost independent of Må for Må/Me3. Independent of Må, relativistic effects increase the critical pericenter distance for full disruption events by up to a factor of ∼3 relative to the Newtonian prediction. The probability of a direct capture is also independent of Må; at MBH/Me5×106this probability is equal to the probability of a complete disruption. The breadth of the debris energy distribution ΔE can differ from the standard estimate by factors of 0.35−2, depending on Må and MBH, implying a corresponding change(∝(ΔE)−3/2)in the characteristic mass-return timescale. We provide analytic forms, suitable for use in both event rate estimates and parameter inference, to describe all these trends. For partial disruptions, we find a nearly universal relation between the star’s angular momentum and the fraction of Må remaining. Within the “empty loss-cone” regime, partial disruptions must precede full disruptions. These partial disruptions can drastically affect the rate and appearance of subsequent total disruptions

Taeho Ryu↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation-Based Recovery Action Analysis Using the EMRALD Dynamic Risk Assessment Tool

A recovery action is defined as the action that prevents deviant conditions from producing unwanted effects. It generally indicates a kind of countermeasure performed in response to a failure of human action. The recovery actions especially play an important role in complex systems like nuclear power plants (NPPs), which consist of highly sophisticated controllers to ensure that desired performance and safety must be achieved and maintained. This is because a combination of human error and its recovery failure may be able to cause a catastrophic effect on a system. Analyzing recovery actions has been a critical part of HRA, which is a technique to evaluate human errors and provide human error probabilities (HEPs) for application in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). If recovery actions are not adequately analyzed and applied to PSA models, the PSA results may be under-estimated or be not able to reasonably account for the failure of human actions in the context of PSA. For this reason, some regulatory documents such as ASME/ANS RA-Sb-2013 by the American Society for Mechanical Engineers and the American Nuclear Society and NUREG-1792 by U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission have emphasized the importance of recovery analysis within the HRA. A couple of existing HRA methods, such as the Technique for Human Error-Rate Prediction (THERP), the Cause-Based Decision Tree (CBDT), and the Korean Standard HRA (K-HRA), have respectively suggested their own approaches to the HRA recovery analysis. However, there are a couple of limitations to treating recovery actions using only the current HRA methods available. The biggest limitation is that the existing recovery analysis does not explicitly consider a variety of recovery action types and recovery sequences as they occur in actual NPPs. To handle the limitations of existing recovery analysis, this study proposes a simulation-based recovery analysis method using the Event Modeling Risk Assessment Using Linked Diagram (EMRALD) software. The EMRALD software is a dynamic simulation tool for PSA. It supports realistic and dynamic modeling of human actions as they would be performed at NPPs. It is also favorable to simultaneously model the specific moment at which an action is performed, the time it takes to perform the action, and the failure probability of that action. In this paper, a detailed methodology for modeling recovery actions in the simulation platform is proposed with a couple of examples. Then, outputs from the simulation are discussed as reviewing if this novel approach can complement the challenges of existing recovery analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Stopping criteria for ending autonomous, single detector radiological source searches

While the localization of radiological sources has traditionally been handled with statistical algorithms, such a task can be augmented with advanced machine learning methodologies. The combination of deep and reinforcement learning has provided learning-based navigation to autonomous, single-detector, mobile systems. However, these approaches lacked the capacity to terminate a surveying/search task without outside influence of an operator or perfect knowledge of source location (defeating the purpose of such a system). Two stopping criteria are investigated in this work for a machine learning navigated system: one based upon Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) strategies commonly used in source localization, and a second providing the navigational machine learning network with a “stop search” action. A convolutional neural network was trained via reinforcement learning in a 10 m × 10 m simulated environment to navigate a randomly placed detector-agent to a randomly placed source of varied strength (stopping with perfect knowledge during training). The network agent could move in one of four directions (up, down, left, right) after taking a 1 s count measurement at the current location. During testing, the stopping criteria for this navigational algorithm was based upon a Bayesian likelihood estimation technique of source presence, updating this likelihood after each step, and terminating once the confidence of the source being in a single location exceeded 0.9. A second network was trained and tested with similar architecture as the previous but which contained a fifth action: for self-stopping. The accuracy and speed of localization with set detector and source initializations were compared over 50 trials of MLE-Bayesian approach and 1000 trials of the CNN with self-stopping. The statistical stopping condition yielded a median localization error of ~1.41 m and median localization speed of 12 steps. The machine learning stopping condition yielded a median localization error of 0 m and median localization speed of 17 steps. This work demonstrated two stopping criteria available to a machine learning guided, source localization system.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2022

The 2175 Å bump features in FeLoBAL quasars: One indicator of MW-like dust in the nuclear region of quasars

To investigate the properties of dust in the nuclear region of quasars, we explored the extinction curves of the iron low-ionisation broad absorption line (FeLoBAL) quasar SDSS J163004.29+311957.6 and its two analogues. The parametrised extinction curves indicated the Milky Way-like 2175 Å bump features in underlying extinction, which are similar to those seen in the Local Group and in a subset of high-redshift star-forming galaxies. Compared to the bump features in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC), the detections in this work are much closer to those in the Milky Way (MW). These bump features, as well as those in the high- and low-ionisation broad absorption line (BAL) quasars with 2175 Å bumps, are probably the counterpart of the 2175 Å bump features in the quasar environment. This type of dust grain is generally small, easily disrupted by high-energy photons, and has difficulty surviving in the radiation field of the active galactic nucleus. However, due to the presence of absorption-line outflows, the 2175 Å bump feature in quasars, which should be rare, is seen many times in BAL quasars. The shielding effect of outflow clouds allows the MW-like dust grains to be assembled or extends the survival period in the quasar nuclear region. The process and physical and chemical conditions deserve further observational study and investigation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1993

Primary display latency criteria based on flying qualities and performance data

With a pilots' increasing use of visual cue augmentation, much requiring extensive pre-processing, there is a need to establish criteria for new avionics/display design. The timeliness and synchronization of the augmented cues is vital to ensure the performance quality required for precision mission task elements (MTEs) where augmented cues are the primary source of information to the pilot. Processing delays incurred while transforming sensor-supplied flight information into visual cues are unavoidable. Relationships between maximum control system delays and associated flying qualities levels are documented in MIL-F-83300 and MIL-F-8785. While cues representing aircraft status may be just as vital to the pilot as prompt control response for operations in instrument meteorological conditions, presently, there are no specification requirements on avionics system latency. To produce data relating avionics system latency to degradations in flying qualities, the Navy conducted two simulation investigations. During the investigations, flying qualities and performance data were recorded as simulated avionics system latency was varied. Correlated results of the investigation indicates that there is a detrimental impact of latency on flying qualities. Analysis of these results and consideration of key factors influencing their application indicate that: (1) Task performance degrades and pilot workload increases as latency is increased. Inconsistency in task performance increases as latency increases. (2) Latency reduces the probability of achieving Level 1 handling qualities with avionics system latency as low as 70 ms. (3) The data suggest that the achievement of desired performance will be ensured only at display latency values below 120 ms. (4) These data also suggest that avoidance of inadequate performance will be ensured only at display latency values below 150 ms.

Funk, John D., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Characterization of Operational Performance of Ka-Band Links in Deep Space Network

This paper presents a characterization of performance of 32-GHz Ka-band link in an operational environment. The data come from tracking of Kepler spacecraft by the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN) in the past few years. Ka-band link offers a significant signal-to-noise advantage compared to the more common X- or S-band; however, it is subject to more signal fluctuation caused by the weather. Kepler is the first mission supported by the DSN that solely rely on the higher deep space Ka-band communications link to return its high-rate science data. A well characterization of the operational performance of Kepler would benefit future Ka-band missions, especially for those operating with smaller link margin. The study examines how weather conditions at the DSN facilities (e.g., winds, clouds, rains) affect the received signal, particularly on telemetry data. It addresses questions such as how often the weather affects the link and how much degradation the link could suffer. Among the 22 Ka-band passes in 2012, heavy clouds affected one pass and two passes were impacted by high winds. The adverse weather caused at time as much as 3-dB instantaneous change in the signal to noise ratio (SNR). Estimates of degradation to the SNR as a function of wind speeds are captured based on observations. This study also quantifies the probability distribution of the variation of received signal power. With such information, future missions can better plan their link design. An optimal link design aims for just having enough margin to realize the data return with a targeted probability, with neither having too much margin that it reduces the downlink data rate nor insufficient reserve that causes frequent data outages. The study tries to provide some answers to the questions such as how much does SNR vary from one tracking pass to the next, and what is the cumulative distribution of signal fluctuation. Regarding the signal variation over many tracking passes, we found that the averaged symbol SNR (SSNR) for each pass changed by as much as 4 dB. Some variations were due to geometry such as the changing distance between spacecraft and Earth and different antenna pointing elevations. Other variations seem to be random in nature, reflecting the randomness of operational environments. Some passes were found to be quite stable, with a standard deviation of symbol SNR around 0.25 dB while others had greater variation, up to 1.4 dB. Overall, the cumulative distribution of the symbol SNR reflects that 50% of the fluctuations was less than 0.6 dB, 90% of fluctuation was within 1.6 dB and 95% within 2.2 dB. Some of the challenges in data processing, validation and modeling were captured in this paper. We observed some inconsistent measurements where operational data significantly deviate from a normal expectation. These inconsistent measurements made it hard to develop an accurate and consistent performance model, such as the degradation of signal SNR as a function of high wind. The difficulty was compounded by the fact that there were only a few Ka-band passes observed in high winds.

Pham, Timothy↗
DOE OSTI2020

Infrared spectroscopy data- and physics-driven machine learning for characterizing surface microstructure of complex materials

There is a need to characterize complex materials and their dynamics under reaction conditions to accelerate materials design. Adsorbate vibrational excitations are selective to adsorbate/surface interactions and infrared (IR) spectra associated with activating adsorbate vibrational modes are accurate, capture details of most modes, and can be obtained operando. Current interpretation depends on heuristic peak assignments for simple spectra, precluding the possibility of obtaining detailed structural information. Here, we combine data-based approaches with chemistry-dependent problem formulation to develop physics-driven surrogate models that generate synthetic IR spectra from first-principles calculations. Using synthetic IR spectra of carbon monoxide on platinum, we implement multinomial regression via neural network ensembles to learn probability distributions functions (pdfs) that describe adsorption sites and quantify uncertainty. We use these pdfs to infer detailed surface microstructure from experimental spectra and extend this methodology to other systems as a first step towards characterizing complex interfaces and closing the materials gap.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
NASA NTRS1971

Bias and spread in EVT performance tests.

Performance tests (error probability measurements) of communications systems characterized by low bit rates and high reliability requirements frequently utilize classical extreme value theory (EVT) to avoid the excessive test times encountered with bit error rate (BER) tests. If the underlying noise is Gaussian or perturbed Gaussian, the EVT error estimates have either excessive bias or excessive variance if an insufficient number of test samples is used. EVT is examined to explain the cause of this bias and spread. Experimental verification is made by testing a known Gaussian source, and procedures that minimize these effects are described. It seems apparent that even under the best of conditions the EVT test results are not particularly better than those of BER tests.

Smith, J. G.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Kinetics of Open Circuit Processes in Undischarged Li/SOC12 Cells

The kinetics of the heat producing processes in undischarged Li/SOCl2 cells under open circuit conditions were measured by heat-conduction microcalorimetry. The cells studied, Honeywell type G2666 reserve cells, were activated as needed and the rate of open circuit heat output determined as a function of time since activation and temperature. The results at each temperature can be described by an equation of the form q = Bktx where q is the rate of heat output, B is the heat produced per unit of reaction, k and x are empirical constants, and t is the time since activation. Both x and k are found to be functions of temperature; therefore, accelerated testing at elevated temperatures is probably not valid for these cells until the processes involved are better understood.

Hansen, L. D.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Strong metal-support interactions

It has been demonstrated that synergistic metal-support effects can occur which markedly enhance specific activity and alter selectivity in certain reactions. Because of the presence of such effects in certain reactions conducted under reducing conditions (that is, under H2 pressure), but not others, the creation of unique sites at the metal-support interface seems to be the best model at the present time to explain this behavior. The postulation of these sites, which are specific for a certain reactant such as CO, provides an effective explanation for the higher methanation rates that have been reported over some catalysts. The creation of these sites in the adlineation zone is facilitated by hydrogen spillover from the metal surface, and this same process can also enhance the reduction of many oxide supports. Although oxygen spillover is much less probable due to its higher heat of adsorption, it is much less well understood and the possibility of rate enhancements in CO oxidation caused by special interface sites cannot be discounted at the present time. Consequently, this seems to be an important area of future research.

Vannice, M. Albert↗
NASA NTRS1987

Shock effects and argon loss in samples of the Leedey L6 chondrite experimentally shocked to 29-70 GPa pressures

The recovery of polished 600-micron-thick 7-mm-diameter disk samples and powder samples of the Leedey L6 chondrite from 29-70-GPa experimental shocks is investigated experimentally under vacuum conditions, with a focus on the possible direct shock loss of radiogenic Ar. The results of petrographic examination of the shocked samples and Ar isotope measurements are presented in tables, graphs, and micrographs and characterized in detail. The principal damage mechanisms are identified as mechanical disaggregation and increasing cataclasis, with little melting. The degassing of radiogenic Ar is found to be relatively modest and to increase with shock pressure and sample porosity; it is attributed to a combination of mechanical grain disruption and feldspar melting. It is inferred that Ar loss in naturally shocked materials (especially those showing few signs of melting) probably occurs during extended exposure to high temperatures during impact formation.

Bogard, Donald↗
NASA NTRS1995

Disruption of the Globular Cluster Pal 5

Orbit calculations suggest that the sparse globular cluster, Pal 5, will pass within 7 kpc of the Galactic center the next time it crosses the plane, where it might be destroyed by tidal stresses. We study this problem, treating Pal 5 as a self-consistent dynamical system orbiting through an external potential that represents the Galaxy. The first part of the problem is to find suitable analytic approximations to the Galactic potential. They must be valid in all regions the cluster is likely to explore. Observed velocity and positional data for Pal 5 are used as initial conditions to determine the orbit. Methods we used for a different problem some 12 years ago have been adapted to this problem. Three experiments have been run, with M/L= 1, 3, and 10, for the cluster model. The cluster blew up shortly after passing through the Galactic plane (about 130 Myrs after the beginning of the run) with M/L=1. At M/L = 3 and 10 the cluster survived, although it got quite a kick in the fundamental mode on passing through the plane. But the fundamental mode oscillation died out in a couple of oscillation cycles at M/L=10. Pal 5 will probably be destroyed on its next crossing of the Galactic plane if M/L=1, but it can survive (albeit with fairly heavy damage) if NI/L=3. We haven't tried to trap the mass limits more closely than that. Pal 5 comes through pretty well unscathed at M/L=10. An interesting follow-up experiment would be to back the cluster up along its orbit to look at its previous passage through the Galactic plane, to see what kind of object it might have been at earlier times.

Miller, R. H.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improved performance of a near-field thermophotovoltaic device by a back gapped reflector

Various spectral control techniques can be applied to improve the performance of a thermophotovoltaic (TPV) device. For example, a back surface reflector (BSR) is a common structure to improve the performance of TPV devices. A conventional metal BSR structure enhances the photogeneration rate by increasing the absorption probability of photons via back surface reflections, affording a second chance for absorption. However, the effects of surface passivation and external luminescence introduced by BSR structures have been previously ignored, which potentially decreases the performance of TPV devices. Recently, a back gapped reflector (BGR) structure was proposed to greatly improve the performance of far-field TPV devices by reducing imperfect reflections at the semiconductor-metal interface. In the present work, the performance improvement on a thin-film, near-field InAs TPV device with a BGR is investigated, comparing its performance to that with a conventional metal BSR. Surface passivation conditions are also investigated to further improve the performance of TPV devices with back reflectors. Further, the output power and efficiency are calculated using an iterative model combining fluctuational electrodynamics and the full drift diffusion model. For the well-passivated condition, when the BSR is replaced by the BGR, the calculated conversion efficiency of the near-field TPV was improved from 16.4% to 21% and the output power was increased by 10%. Finally, the absorption of the back reflectors and external luminescence loss are analyzed to explain the performance improvement.

external luminescence↗
DOE OSTI2023

Single-photon absorption and emission from a natural photosynthetic complex

Photosynthesis is generally assumed to be initiated by a single photon from the Sun, which, as a weak light source, delivers at most a few tens of photons per nanometre squared per second within a chlorophyll absorption band1. Yet much experimental and theoretical work over the past 40 years has explored the events during photosynthesis subsequent to absorption of light from intense, ultrashort laser pulses. Here, we use single photons to excite under ambient conditions the light-harvesting 2 (LH2) complex of the purple bacterium Rhodobacter sphaeroides, comprising B800 and B850 rings that contain 9 and 18 bacteriochlorophyll molecules, respectively. Excitation of the B800 ring leads to electronic energy transfer to the B850 ring in approximately 0.7 ps, followed by rapid B850-to-B850 energy transfer on an approximately 100-fs timescale and light emission at 850–875 nm. Using a heralded single photon source20,21 along with coincidence counting, we establish time correlation functions for B800 excitation and B850 fluorescence emission and demonstrate that both events involve single photons. We also find that the probability distribution of the number of heralds per detected fluorescence photon supports the view that a single photon can upon absorption drive the subsequent energy transfer and fluorescence emission and hence, by extension, the primary charge separation of photosynthesis. An analytical stochastic model and a Monte Carlo numerical model capture the data, further confirming that absorption of single photons is correlated with emission of single photons in a natural light-harvesting complex.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1984

The application of satellite data to study the effects of latent heat release on cyclones

Generalized energetics were studied for nonlinear inviscid symmetric instability (SI). It was found that the linear theory fails to predict the stability in certain cases where the basic state is transitional between stability and instability. The initial growth of the SI perturbations can be fairly well approximated by linear theory, but the long time nonlinear evaluations will be bonded energetically if the SI region is finite. However, a further extension of the energetics to conditional symmetric instability (CSI) shows that the nonlinear evolution of circulation will energetically depend much more on the precipitation in a complicated way. By treating the latent heat as a source which is implicitly related to the motion field, the existence, uniqueness and stability of steady viscous (CSI) circulations are studied. Viscous CSI circulations are proved to be unique and asymptotically stable when the heat sources are weak and less sensitive to the motion perturbations. By considering the fact that moist updrafts are narrow and using eddy viscosity of 0(1,000 m squared/s) the stability criterion suggests that some frontal rainbands were probably dominated by the CSI mechanism even in their mature quasi-steady stage.

Clark, J. H. E.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Scientific investigations at a lunar base

Studies of lunar origin and history, astronomy, and applications of lunar environmental conditions to experiments in physics and chemistry are examined to gain some insight into their control over site selection and base characteristics. Lunar studies most likely will be distinguished by needs for surface mobility and laboratory support; astronomy will require initial construction and servicing by crews on a sporadic basis; physics and chemistry experiments will require complex facilities and the ability to support a research staff and supporting laboratory and fabrication shop facilities. Lunar bases dominated by lunar investigations will be sited relatively near important lunar geological features. Astronomical facilities may require access to the lunar limb or poles. Physics and chemistry facilities are probably not strongly tied to the specific base locations.

Duke, M. B.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Self-Consistent Simulation of the Brownian Stage of Dust Growth

It is a widely accepted view that in proto-planetary accretion disks the collision and following sticking of dust particles embedded in the gas eventually leads to the formation of planetesimals (coagulation). For the smallest dust grains, Brownian motion is assumed to be the dominant source of their relative velocities leading to collisions between these dust grains. As the dust grains grow they eventually couple to the turbulent motion of the gas which then drives the coagulation much more efficiently. Many numerical coagulation simulations have been carried out to calculate the fractal dimension of the aggregates, which determines the duration of the ineffective Brownian stage of growth. Predominantly on-lattice and off-lattice methods were used. However, both methods require simplification of the astrophysical conditions. The aggregates found by those methods had a fractal dimension of approximately 2 which is equivalent to a constant, mass-independent friction time. If this value were valid for the conditions in an accretion disk, this would mean that the coagulation process would finally 'freeze out' and the growth of a planetesimal would be impossible within the lifetime of an accretion disk. In order to investigate whether this fractal dimension is model independent, we simulate self-consistently the Brownian stage of the coagulation by an N-particle code. This method has the advantage that no further assumptions about homogeneity of the dust have to be made. In our model, the dust grains are considered as aggregates built up of spheres. The equation of motion of the dust grains is based on the probability density for the diffusive transport within the gas atmosphere. Because of the very low number density of the dust grains, only 2-body-collisions have to be considered. As the Brownian stage of growth is very inefficient, the system is to be simulated over long periods of time. In order to find close particle pairs of the system which are most likely to undergo a collision, we use a particle-in-cell (PIC) method for the early stages of the simulation where the system is still very homogeneous and a tree method later when the particles are more clustered.

Kempf, S.↗