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At least 1,765 records · Page 98
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Study of Stratus-Lowering Marine-Fog Events Observed During C-FOG

Two stratus lowering marine fog events observed on 28 September and 04 October 2018 during the Coastal Fog (C-Fog) field campaign that took place offshore of Eastern Canada during 1 September to 6 October 2018 are described. In-situ, profiling and remote sensing observations were made at selected land sites in eastern Newfoundland (NL) and Nova Scotia (NS) as well as aboard the research vessel (R/V) Hugh R. Sharp that cruised in adjoining coastal waters. Synoptic scale analysis showed that both fog episodes were an outcome of the interaction between synoptic-scale surface level low-pressure systems and a contiguous high-pressure system. At the same time, back trajectories revealed that the bulk of the fog layer is formed due to differential advection. Here, the diameter of the fog droplets at the surface gradually decreased from the centre of the fog layer to its leading/trailing edges. The bimodal fog droplet diameter distribution with peaks at 5-10 µm and 20-25 µm provided clues on droplet collision and coalescence processes. The observed difference between microphysical variables and droplet distribution between the two fog events and within same fog layer may have been governed by atmospheric boundary layer conditions (e.g., humidity conditions and turbulence) prevailed in the fog layer. Overall, it is concluded that the life cycle of observed stratus-lowering coastal-fog episodes is dependent on synoptic conditions as well as atmospheric boundary layer characteristics such as stability, cloud top cooling and entrainment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1990

Global analyses of water vapor, cloud and precipitation derived from a diagnostic assimilation of SSM/I geophysical retrievals

An analytical approach is described for diagnostically assimilating moisture data from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) into a global analysis of water vapor, cloud content, and precipitation. In this method, 3D fields of wind and temperature values taken from ECMWF gridded analysis are used to drive moisture conservation equations with parameterized microphysical treatment of vapor, liquid, and ice; the evolving field of water vapor is periodically updated or constrained by SSM/I retrievals of precipitable water. Initial results indicate that this diagnostic model can produce realistic large-scale fields of cloud and precipitation. The resulting water vapor analyses agree well with SSM/I and have an additional advantage of being synoptic.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Improving the Representation of Snow Crystal Properties within a Single-Moment Microphysics Scheme

The assumptions of a single-moment microphysics scheme (NASA Goddard) were evaluated using a variety of surface, aircraft and radar data sets. Fixed distribution intercepts and snow bulk densities fail to represent the vertical variability and diversity of crystal populations for this event. Temperature-based equations have merit, but they can be adversely affected by complex temperature profiles that are inverted or isothermal. Column-based approaches can mitigate complex profiles of temperature but are restricted by the ability of the model to represent cloud depth. Spheres are insufficient for use in CloudSat reflectivity comparisons due to Mie resonance, but reasonable for Rayleigh scattering applications. Microphysics schemes will benefit from a greater range of snow crystal characteristics to accommodate naturally occurring diversity.

Molthan, Andrew L.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Optical properties of marine stratocumulus clouds modified by ship track effluents

The angular distribution of scattered radiation deep within a cloud layer was measured in marine stratocumulus clouds modified by the emissions from ships. These observations, obtained at thirteen discrete wavelengths between 0.5 and 2.3 microns, were obtained as the University of Washington Convair C-131A aircraft flew through a pair of roughly parallel ship tracks off the coast of southern California on 10 July 1987. In the first of these ship tracks, the cloud droplet concentration increased from 40 to 107/cu cm (125/cu cm in the second ship track). Simultaneous to this spectacular change, the aircraft measured interstitial aerosol (Aitken nucleus) concentration that increased from 400 to 1000/cu cm and cloud liquid water content that increased from 0.03 to 0.75 g/cu m. Broadband pyranometer measurements showed that the upwelling flux density increased from 150 to 280 W/sq m. These in-situ microphysics and broadband pyranometer results, together with AVHRR satellite images obtained with the NOAA-10 satellite, are described in detail by Radke et al., (1989). Internal scattered radiation measurements at selected wavelengths obtained with the cloud absorption radiometer (King et al., 1986) for a 100 km section of marine stratocumulus clouds containing these two ship track features are presented.

King, Michael D.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Toward low‐cloud‐permitting cloud superparameterization with explicit boundary layer turbulence

Abstract Systematic biases in the representation of boundary layer (BL) clouds are a leading source of uncertainty in climate projections. A variation on superparameterization (SP) called “ultraparameterization” (UP) is developed, in which the grid spacing of the cloud‐resolving models (CRMs) is fine enough (250 × 20 m) to explicitly capture the BL turbulence, associated clouds, and entrainment in a global climate model capable of multiyear simulations. UP is implemented within the Community Atmosphere Model using 2° resolution (∼14,000 embedded CRMs) with one‐moment microphysics. By using a small domain and mean‐state acceleration, UP is computationally feasible today and promising for exascale computers. Short‐duration global UP hindcasts are compared with SP and satellite observations of top‐of‐atmosphere radiation and cloud vertical structure. The most encouraging improvement is a deeper BL and more realistic vertical structure of subtropical stratocumulus (Sc) clouds, due to stronger vertical eddy motions that promote entrainment. Results from 90 day integrations show climatological errors that are competitive with SP, with a significant improvement in the diurnal cycle of offshore Sc liquid water. Ongoing concerns with the current UP implementation include a dim bias for near‐coastal Sc that also occurs less prominently in SP and a bright bias over tropical continental deep convection zones. Nevertheless, UP makes global eddy‐permitting simulation a feasible and interesting alternative to conventionally parameterized GCMs or SP‐GCMs with turbulence parameterizations for studying BL cloud‐climate and cloud‐aerosol feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Triple-frequency radar retrieval of microphysical properties of snow

Abstract. An algorithm based on triple-frequency (X, Ka, W) radar measurements that retrieves the size, water content and degree of riming of ice clouds is presented. This study exploits the potential of multi-frequency radar measurements to provide information on bulk snow density that should underpin better estimates of the snow characteristic size and content within the radar volume. The algorithm is based on Bayes' rule with riming parameterised by the “fill-in” model. The radar reflectivities are simulated with a range of scattering models corresponding to realistic snowflake shapes. The algorithm is tested on multi-frequency radar data collected during the ESA-funded Radar Snow Experiment For Future Precipitation Mission. During this campaign, in situ microphysical probes were mounted on the same aeroplane as the radars. This nearly perfectly co-located dataset of the remote and in situ measurements gives an opportunity to derive a combined multi-instrument estimate of snow microphysical properties that is used for a rigorous validation of the radar retrieval. Results suggest that the triple-frequency retrieval performs well in estimating ice water content (IWC) and mean mass-weighted diameters obtaining root-mean-square errors of 0.13 and 0.15, respectively, for log 10IWC and log 10Dm. The retrieval of the degree of riming is more challenging, and only the algorithm that uses Doppler information obtains results that are highly correlated with the in situ data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

Microphysical Modelling of the 1999-2000 Arctic Winter: Chlorine Activation and Ozone Depletion - 2

The effect of a range of assumptions about polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) on ozone depletion has been assessed using at couple microphysical/photochemical model. The composition of the PSCs was varied (ternary solutions, nitric acid trihydrate, nitric acid dehydrate, or ice), as were parameters that affected the levels of denitrification and dehydration. Ozone depletion was affected by assumptions about PSC freezing because of the variability in resultant nitrification chlorine activation in all scenarios was similar despite the range of assumed PSC compositions. Vortex-average ozone loss exceeded 40% in the lower stratosphere for simulations without nitrification an additional ozone loss of 15-20% was possible in scenarios where vortex-average nitrification reached 60%. Ozone loss intensifies non-linearly with enhanced nitrification in air parcels with 90% nitrification 40% ozone loss in mid-April can be attributed to nitrification alone. However, these effects are sensitive to the stability of the vortex in springtime: nitrification only began to influence ozone depletion in mid-March.

Drdla, K.↗
DOE OSTI2014

Evaluation of Cloud-resolving and Limited Area Model Intercomparison Simulations using TWP-ICE Observations. Part 1: Deep Convective Updraft Properties

Ten 3D cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations and four 3D limited area model (LAM) simulations of an intense mesoscale convective system observed on January 23-24, 2006 during the Tropical Warm Pool – International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) are compared with each other and with observed radar reflectivity fields and dual-Doppler retrievals of vertical wind speeds in an attempt to explain published results showing a high bias in simulated convective radar reflectivity aloft. This high bias results from ice water content being large, which is a product of large, strong convective updrafts, although hydrometeor size distribution assumptions modulate the size of this bias. Snow reflectivity can exceed 40 dBZ in a two-moment scheme when a constant bulk density of 100 kg m-3 is used. Making snow mass more realistically proportional to area rather than volume should somewhat alleviate this problem. Graupel, unlike snow, produces high biased reflectivity in all simulations. This is associated with large amounts of liquid water above the freezing level in updraft cores. Peak vertical velocities in deep convective updrafts are greater than dual-Doppler retrieved values, especially in the upper troposphere. Freezing of large rainwater contents lofted above the freezing level in simulated updraft cores greatly contributes to these excessive upper tropospheric vertical velocities. Strong simulated updraft cores are nearly undiluted, with some showing supercell characteristics. Decreasing horizontal grid spacing from 900 meters to 100 meters weakens strong updrafts, but not enough to match observational retrievals. Therefore, overly intense simulated updrafts may partly be a product of interactions between convective dynamics, parameterized microphysics, and large-scale environmental biases that promote different convective modes and strengths than observed.

clould-resolving↗
DOE OSTI2017

Dynamical conditions of ice supersaturation and ice nucleation in convective systems: A comparative analysis between in situ aircraft observations and WRF simulations: Ice Supersaturation in Convective System

Occurrence frequency and dynamical conditions of ice supersaturation (ISS, where relative humidity with respect to ice (RHi) > 100%) are examined in the upper troposphere around convective activity. Comparisons are conducted between in situ airborne observations and the Weather Research and Forecasting model simulations using four double-moment microphysical schemes at temperatures ≤-40°C. All four schemes capture both clear-sky and in-cloud ISS conditions. However, the clear-sky (in-cloud) ISS conditions are completely (significantly) limited to the RHi thresholds of the Cooper parameterization. In all of the simulations, ISS occurrence frequencies are higher by ~3–4 orders of magnitude at higher updraft speeds (>1 m s -1 ) than those at the lower updraft speeds when ice water content (IWC) > 0.01 g m -3 , while observations show smaller differences up to ~1–2 orders of magnitude. The simulated ISS also occurs less frequently at weaker updrafts and downdrafts than observed. These results indicate that the simulations have a greater dependence on stronger updrafts to maintain/generate ISS at higher IWC. At lower IWC (≤0.01 g m -3 ), simulations unexpectedly show lower ISS frequencies at stronger updrafts. Overall, the Thompson aerosol-aware scheme has the closest magnitudes and frequencies of ISS >20% to the observations, and the modified Morrison has the closest correlations between ISS frequencies and vertical velocity at higher IWC and number density. The Cooper parameterization often generates excessive ice crystals and therefore suppresses the frequency and magnitude of ISS, indicating that it should be initiated at higher ISS (e.g., ≥25%).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multifrequency radar observations of clouds and precipitation including the G-band

Abstract. Observations collected during the 25 February 2020 deployment of the Vapor In-Cloud Profiling Radar at the Stony Brook Radar Observatory clearly demonstrate the potential of G-band radars for cloud and precipitation research, something that until now was only discussed in theory. The field experiment, which coordinated an X-, Ka-, W- and G-band radar, revealed that the Ka–G pairing can generate differential reflectivity signal several decibels larger than the traditional Ka–W pairing underpinning an increased sensitivity to smaller amounts of liquid and ice water mass and sizes. The observations also showed that G-band signals experience non-Rayleigh scattering in regions where Ka- and W-band signal do not, thus demonstrating the potential of G-band radars for sizing sub-millimeter ice crystals and droplets. Observed peculiar radar reflectivity patterns also suggest that G-band radars could be used to gain insight into the melting behavior of small ice crystals. G-band signal interpretation is challenging, because attenuation and non-Rayleigh effects are typically intertwined. An ideal liquid-free period allowed us to use triple-frequency Ka–W–G observations to test existing ice scattering libraries, and the results raise questions on their comprehensiveness. Overall, this work reinforces the importance of deploying radars (1) with sensitivity sufficient enough to detect small Rayleigh scatters at cloud top in order to derive estimates of path-integrated hydrometeor attenuation, a key constraint for microphysical retrievals; (2) with sensitivity sufficient enough to overcome liquid attenuation, to reveal the larger differential signals generated from using the G-band as part of a multifrequency deployment; and (3) capable of monitoring atmospheric gases to reduce related uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2001

Modeling of Convective-Stratiform Precipitation Processes: Sensitivity to Partitioning Methods and Numerical Advection Schemes

Six different convective-stratiform separation techniques, including a new technique that utilizes the ratio of vertical and terminal velocities, are compared and evaluated using two-dimensional numerical simulations of a tropical [Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE)] and midlatitude continental [Preliminary Regional Experiment for STORM-Central (PRESTORM)] squall line. The simulations are made using two different numerical advection schemes: 4th order and positive definite advection. Comparisons are made in terms of rainfall, cloud coverage, mass fluxes, apparent heating and moistening, mean hydrometeor profiles, CFADs (Contoured Frequency with Altitude Diagrams), microphysics, and latent heating retrieval. Overall, it was found that the different separation techniques produced results that qualitatively agreed. However, the quantitative differences were significant. Observational comparisons were unable to conclusively evaluate the performance of the techniques. Latent heating retrieval was shown to be sensitive to the use of separation technique mainly due to the stratiform region for methods that found very little stratiform rain. The midlatitude PRESTORM simulation was found to be nearly invariant with respect to advection type for most quantities while for TOGA COARE fourth order advection produced numerous shallow convective cores and positive definite advection fewer cells that were both broader and deeper penetrating above the freezing level.

Lang, Steve↗
NASA NTRS2001

Modeling of Convective-Stratiform Precipitation Processes: Sensitivity to Partitioning Methods

Six different convective-stratiform separation techniques, including a new technique that utilizes the ratio of vertical and terminal velocities, are compared and evaluated using two-dimensional numerical simulations of a tropical [Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA COARE)] and midlatitude continental [Preliminary Regional Experiment for STORM-Central (PRESTORM)] squall line. Comparisons are made in terms of rainfall, cloud coverage, mass fluxes, apparent heating and moistening, mean hydrometeor profiles, CFADs (Contoured Frequency with Altitude Diagrams), microphysics, and latent heating retrieval. Overall, it was found that the different separation techniques produced results that qualitatively agreed. However, the quantitative differences were significant. Observational comparisons were unable to conclusively evaluate the performance of the techniques. Latent heating retrieval was shown to be sensitive to the use of separation technique mainly due to the stratiform region for methods that found very little stratiform rain.

Lang, S. E.↗
NASA NTRS2004

GMS-based"Future Time" Rainfall Data Assimilation for Mesoscale Weather Prediction over Korean Peninsula and Future Prospects with GPM Satellite Measurements

This study examines the use of satellite-derived nowcasted (short-term forecasted) rainfall over 3-hour time periods to gain an equivalent time increment in initializing a nonhydrostatic mesoscale model used for predicting convective rainfall events over the Korean peninsula. Infrared (IR) window measurements from the Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite (GMS) are used to specify latent heating for a spinup period of the model - but in future time -- thus initializing in advance of actual time in the framework of a prediction scenario. The main scientific objective of the study is to investigate the strengths and weaknesses of this approach insofar as data assimilation, in which the nowcasted assimilation data are derived independently of the prognostic model itself. Although there have been various recent improvements in formulating the dynamics, thermodynamics, and microphysics of mesoscale models, as well as computer advances which allow the use of high resolution cloud-resolving grids and explicit latent heating over regional domains, spinup remains at the forefront of unresolved mesoscale modeling problems. In general, non-realistic spinup limits the skill in predicting the spatial-temporal distribution of convection and precipitation, primarily in the early hours of a. forecast, stemming from standard prognostic variables not representing the initial diabatic heating field produced by the ambient convection and cloud fields. The long-term goal of this research is to improve short-range (12-hour) quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF) over the Korean peninsula through the use of innovative data assimilation methods based on geosynchronous satellite measurements. As a step in th~s direction, a non-standard data assimilation experiment in conjunction with GMS-retrieved nowcasted rainfall information introduced to the mesoscale model is conducted. The 3-hourly precipitation forecast information is assimilated through nudging the associated diabatic heating during the early stages of a forecast period. This procedure is expected to enhance details in the moisture field during model integration, and thus improve spinup performance, assuming the errors in the future time latent heating data ate less than intrinsic model background errors.

Smith, Eric A.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Simultaneous Aerosol and Ocean Polarimeter Products Using Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Vector Radiative Transfer and Neural Networks: The PACE-MAPP Algorithm

We describe the PACE-MAPP algorithm that simultaneously retrieves aerosol and ocean optical parameters using multiangle and multi-channel polarimeter measurements from the SPEXone, Hyper-Angular Rainbow Polarimeter 2 (HARP2), and Ocean Color Instrument (OCI) instruments onboard the NASA Plankton, Aerosol, Cloud, ocean Ecosystem (PACE) observing system PACE-MAPP is adapted from the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) Microphysical Aerosol Properties from Polarimetry (RSP-MAPP) algorithm. A key feature of the MAPP family of algorithms is the use of a coupled vector radiative transfer model such that the atmosphere and ocean are always considered together as one system. Consequently, conservation of energy ensures that negative water-leaving radiances do not occur. PACE-MAPP uses optimal estimation to simultaneously characterize the optical and microphysical properties of aerosol and ocean constituents, find the optimal solution, and reliably account for the uncertainties of each parameter. This coupled approach, together with multiangle, multi-channel polarimeter measurements, will enable retrievals of aerosol and water properties across the Earth’s oceans. The PACE-MAPP algorithm provides aerosol and ocean products for both the open ocean and coastal areas and is designed to be accurate, modular, and efficient by using fast neural networks that replace the time-consuming vector radiative transfer calculations. We provide an overview of the PACE-MAPP framework and also describe its modular components including its aerosol and hydrosol models, ocean bio-optical models, and thin cirrus model.

Snorre Stamnes↗
NASA NTRS2022

Investigating Drivers of Particulate Matter Pollution Over India and the Implications for Radiative Forcing With GEOS-Chem-TOMAS15

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations in India frequently exceed 100 μg/m 3 during fall and winter pollution episodes. We use the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model with the TwO-Moment Aerosol Sectional microphysics scheme with 15 size bins (TOMAS15) to assess PM 2.5 composition and impacts on radiation and cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) during pollution episodes as compared to the seasonal (October-December) average. We conduct high resolution (0.25° × 0.3125°) nested-domain simulations over India for short-duration, high-PM2.5 episodes in the fall of 2015 and 2017. The simulations capture the magnitude and spatial patterns of pollution episodes measured by surface monitors (r PM2.5 = 0.69) although aerosol optical depth is underestimated. During the episodes, near-surface organic matter (OM), black carbon (BC), and secondary inorganic aerosol concentrations increase from seasonal averages by up to 36, 7, and 7 μg/m 3 , respectively. Episodic aerosol increases enhance cooling by lowering the top-of-atmosphere clear-sky direct radiative effect (DRE TOA ) during the 2015 episode (−6 W/m 2 ), with a smaller impact during the 2017 episode (−1 W/m 2 ). Differences in DRE TOA reflect larger increases in scattering aerosols in the column during the 2015 episode (+17 mg/m 2 ) than in 2017 (+13 mg/m 2 ), while absorbing aerosol column enhancements are smaller (+3 mg/m2) in both years. Changes in shortwave radiation at the surface (SW sfc ) are spatially similar to DRE TOA and mostly negative during both episodes. CCN enhancements (0.2% supersaturation) during these episodes occur across the western Indo-Gangetic Plain, coincident with higher PM 2.5 concentrations. Changes in DRE TOA , SW sfc , and CCN during high-PM 2.5 episodes may have implications for crops, the hydrologic cycle, and surface temperature.

PM2.5↗
NASA NTRS2007

Nonspherical and Spherical Characterization of Ice in Hurricane Erin for Wideband Passive Microwave Comparisons

In order to better understand the characteristics of frozen cloud particles in hurricane systems, computed brightness temperatures were compared with radiometric observations of Hurricane Erin (2001) from the NASA ER-2 aircraft. The focus was oil the frozen particle microphysics and the high frequencies (2 85 GHz) that are particularly sensitive to frozen particles. Frozen particles in hurricanes are an indicator of increasing hurricane intensity. In fact "hot towers" associated with increasing hurricane intensity are composed of frozen ice cloud particles. (They are called hot towers because their column of air is warmer than the surrounding air temperature, but above about 5-7 km to the tops of the towers at 15-19 km, the cloud particles are frozen.) This work showed that indeed, one can model information about cloud ice particle characteristics and indicated that nonspherical ice shapes, instead of spherical particles, provided the best match to the observations. Overall, this work shows that while non-spherical particles show promise, selecting and modeling a proper ice particle parameterization can be difficult and additional in situ measurements are needed to define and validate appropriate parameterizations. This work is important for developing Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission satellite algorithms for the retrieval of ice characteristics both above the melting layer, as in Hurricane Erin, and for ice particles that reach the surface as falling snow.

Skofronick-Jackson, Gail↗
DOE OSTI2019

Lagrangian Evolution of the Northeast Pacific Marine Boundary Layer Structure and Cloud during CSET

Flight data from the Cloud System Evolution over the Trades (CSET) campaign over the Pacific stratocumulus-to-cumulus transition are organized into 18 Lagrangian cases suitable for study and future modeling, made possible by the use of a track-and-resample flight strategy. Analysis of these cases shows that 2-day Lagrangian coherence of long-lived species (CO and O 3 ) is high ($r$ = 0.93 and 0.73, respectively), but that of subcloud aerosol, MBL depth, and cloud properties is limited. Although they span a wide range in meteorological conditions, most sampled air masses show a clear transition when considering 2-day changes in cloudiness (−31% averaged over all cases), MBL depth (+560 m), estimated inversion strength (EIS; −2.2 K), and decoupling, agreeing with previous satellite studies and theory. Changes in precipitation and droplet number were less consistent. The aircraft-based analysis is augmented by geostationary satellite retrievals and reanalysis data along Lagrangian trajectories between aircraft sampling times, documenting the evolution of cloud fraction, cloud droplet number concentration, EIS, and MBL depth. An expanded trajectory set spanning the summer of 2015 is used to show that the CSET-sampled air masses were representative of the season, with respect to EIS and cloud fraction. Two Lagrangian case studies attractive for future modeling are presented with aircraft and satellite data. The first features a clear Sc–Cu transition involving MBL deepening and decoupling with decreasing cloud fraction, and the second undergoes a much slower cloud evolution despite a greater initial depth and decoupling state. Finally, potential causes for the differences in evolution are explored, including free-tropospheric humidity, subsidence, surface fluxes, and microphysics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity Study for Forecasting Variables of WRF-Solar Using a Tangent Linear Approach

Integrating solar generation in recent years has highlighted the need for improved accuracy in predicting solar power. Confidence in solar power forecasting can be achieved by designing an ensemble that provides reliable probabilistic information for solar radiation with reduced uncertainty and error. Ideally, ensemble members are created through the optimized perturbation of the initial conditions in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Tangent linear models are capable of efficiently investigating the sensitivity of solar radiation to model input parameters because they do not require individual perturbation of each variable. This sensitivity study using tangent linear models provide us the capability to identify the right variables to perturb in an ensemble prediction system. In this study, we developed tangent linear models for WRF-Solar modules that directly impact the computation of solar radiation and the simulation of cloud formation and dissipation including the Fast All-sky Model for Solar Applications (FARMS), the Noah land surface model (LSM), the Thompson microphysics, the Mello-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, and the Deng scheme for a shallow-convection parameterization. A sensitivity analysis was conducted under various scenarios based on satellite observations and model simulations from the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) and WRF-Solar, respectively. Critical forecasting variables that are highly sensitive to the forecasting of global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI), cloud mixing ratio, cloud tendency, cloud fraction, and sensible and latent heat fluxes were determined using the relevant WRF-Solar module. This study will be used as a guidance on future research leading to high-quality probabilistic solar forecasting. In this presentation, we discuss the validation of tangent linear approach for WRF-Solar modules and illustrate how the sensitivity results are valuable in the improvement of probabilistic solar prediction.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗