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At least 1,765 records · Page 98

Modeling the Effects of Global Change on Ecosystem Processes in a Tropical Rainforest

Ongoing land-use change and climate change in wet tropical forests can potentially drive shifts in tree species composition, representing a change in individual species within a functional group, tropical evergreen trees. The impacts on the global carbon cycle are potentially large, but unclear. We explored the differential effects of species within this functional group, in comparison with the effects of climate change, using the Century model as a research tool. Simulating effects of individual tree species on biome-level biogeochemical cycles constituted a novel application for Century. Background and Objectives: A unique, long-term, replicated field experiment containing five evergreen tree species in monodominant stands under similar environmental conditions in a Costa Rican wet forest provided data for model evaluation. Our objectives were to gain insights about this forest’s biogeochemical cycles and effects of tree species within this functional group, in comparison with climate change. Materials and Methods: We calibrated Century, using long-term meteorological, soil, and plant data from the field-based experiment. In modeling experiments, we evaluated effects on forest biogeochemistry of eight plant traits that were both observed and modeled. Climate-change simulation experiments represented two climate-change aspects observed in this region. Results: Model calibration revealed that unmodeled soil processes would be required to sustain observed P budgets. In species-traits experiments, three separate plant traits (leaf death rate, leaf C:N, and allocation to fine roots) resulted in modeled biomass C stock changes of >50%, compared with a maximum 21% change in the climate-change experiments. Conclusions: Modeled ecosystem properties and processes in Century were sensitive to changes in plant traits and nutrient limitations to productivity. Realistic model output was attainable for some species, but unusual plant traits thwarted predictions for one species. Including more plant traits and soil processes could increase realism, but less-complex models provide an accessible means for exploring plant-soil-atmosphere interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assimilating Scanning Radar Data into Cloud-Scale Models

The aim of this project is to improve the initial conditions of large eddy simulations (LES) of deep convective storms by assimilating scanning radar reflectivity and radial velocity data as well as local environmental observations. Accomplishing this goal often results in more accurate numerical forecasts of clouds and precipitation than if the background initial meteorological conditions are solely relied upon for convection initiation and intensification, as is typical of most operational and research models. Conducted in a storm-scale LES framework, these more accurate numerical analyses can serve as tool to better understand and parameterize land-atmosphere coupling, boundary layer turbulence, and cloud processes, each used for model parameterization development of convection. Our work examined the sensitivity of the numerical representation of cloud-scale wind and microphysical structures to: i) the assimilation of radiosonde observations characterizing the near-storm inflow, ii) the assimilation of radar data of varying resolution for model simulations with grid spacings of 1-km and 0.25-km, and iii) to the assimilation of three-dimensional plan-projection-indicator (PPI) and range-height indicator (RHI) radar volumes. Few studies have explored deep convective storm analyses and forecasts produced by assimilation of radar observations to cloud-scale LES. Furthermore, to our knowledge, no storm-scale DA study has explored the value of assimilating high-resolution sector RHI volumes to determine if they can improve the retrieval of the vertical kinematic and microphysical storm structure aloft over the use of traditionally utilized PPI scans.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Singling out modified gravity parameters and data sets reveals a dichotomy between Planck and lensing

ABSTRACT An important route to testing general relativity (GR) at cosmological scales is usually done by constraining modified gravity (MG) parameters added to the Einstein perturbed equations. Most studies have analysed so far constraints on pairs of MG parameters, but here, we explore constraints on one parameter at a time while fixing the other at its GR value. This allows us to analyse various models while benefiting from a stronger constraining power from the data. We also explore which specific data sets are in tension with GR. We find that models with (μ = 1, η) and (μ, η = 1) exhibit a 3.9σ and 3.8σ departure from GR when using Planck18 + Supernovae type Ia (SNe) + Baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO), while (μ, η) shows a tension of 3.4σ. We find no tension with GR for models with the MG parameter Σ fixed to its GR value. Using a Bayesian model selection analysis, we find that some one-parameter MG models are moderately favoured over ΛCDM when using all data set combinations except Planck cosmic microwave background lensing and dark energy survey data. Namely, Planck18 shows a moderate tension with GR that only increases when adding any combination of redshift space distortion, SNe, or BAO. However, adding lensing diminishes or removes these tensions, which can be attributed to the ability of lensing in constraining the MG parameter Σ. The two overall groups of data sets are found to have a dichotomy when performing consistency tests with GR, which may be due to systematic effects, lack of constraining power, or modelling. These findings warrant further investigation using more precise data from ongoing and future surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The albedo and scattering phase function of interstellar dust and the diffuse background at far-ultraviolet wavelengths

The diffuse FUV background in a variety of targets has been observed with a nebular spectrometer designed specifically to eliminate potential sources of contamination. The intensity of the background near the Galactic plane is found to be much lower than previously published. The data are analyzed using a radiative transfer model with a limited set of free parameters, including those which describe the scattering properties of the interstellar dust. Strong evidence is presented that scattering of starlight by Galactic dust associated with neutral hydrogen produces the major part of the FUV diffuse background. Few assumptions are necessary to conclude that the albedo of the grains is low in the FUV. The grains, at least at high latitude, scatter fairly isotropically in the FUV. The low FUV albedo and the usual phase factor g are not consistent with predictions of standard models for the size distribution and composition of interstellar grains.

Hurwitz, Mark↗

Dst Index in the 2008 GEM Modeling Challenge - Model Performance for Moderate and Strong Magnetic Storms

The GEM 2008 modeling challenge efforts are expanding beyond comparing in-situ measurements in the magnetosphere and ionosphere to include the computation of indices to be compared. The Dst index measures the largest deviations of the horizontal magnetic field at 4 equatorial magnetometers from the quiet-time background field and is commonly used to track the strength of the magnetic disturbance of the magnetosphere during storms. Models can calculate a proxy Dst index in various ways, including using the Dessler-Parker Sckopke relation and the energy of the ring current and Biot-Savart integration of electric currents in the magnetosphere. The GEM modeling challenge investigates 4 space weather events and we compare models available at CCMC against each other and the observed values of Ost. Models used include SWMF/BATSRUS, OpenGGCM, LFM, GUMICS (3D magnetosphere MHD models), Fok-RC, CRCM, RAM-SCB (kinetic drift models of the ring current), WINDMI (magnetosphere-ionosphere electric circuit model), and predictions based on an impulse response function (IRF) model and analytic coupling functions with inputs of solar wind data. In addition to the analysis of model-observation comparisons we look at the way Dst is computed in global magnetosphere models. The default value of Dst computed by the SWMF model is for Bz the Earth's center. In addition to this, we present results obtained at different locations on the Earth's surface. We choose equatorial locations at local noon, dusk (18:00 hours), midnight and dawn (6:00 hours). The different virtual observatory locations reveal the variation around the earth-centered Dst value resulting from the distribution of electric currents in the magnetosphere during different phases of a storm.

Rastaetter, Lutz↗

Symmetry of Cosmological Observables, a Mirror World Dark Sector, and the Hubble Constant

We find that a uniform scaling of the gravitational free-fall rates and photon-electron scattering rate leaves most dimensionless cosmological observables nearly invariant. This result opens up a new approach to reconciling cosmic microwave background and large-scale structure observations with high values of the Hubble constant H0: Find a cosmological model in which the scaling transformation can be realized without violating any measurements of quantities not protected by the symmetry. A “mirror world” dark sector allows for effective scaling of the gravitational free-fall rates while respecting the measured mean photon density today. Further model building might bring consistency with the two constraints not yet satisfied: the inferred primordial abundances of deuterium and helium.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A Model Study of Zonal Forcing in the Equatorial Stratosphere by Convectively Induced Gravity Waves

A two-dimensional cloud-resolving model is used to examine the possible role of gravity waves generated by a simulated tropical squall line in forcing the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of the zonal winds in the equatorial stratosphere. A simulation with constant background stratospheric winds is compared to simulations with background winds characteristic of the westerly and easterly QBO phases, respectively. In all three cases a broad spectrum of both eastward and westward propagating gravity waves is excited. In the constant background wind case the vertical momentum flux is nearly constant with height in the stratosphere, after correction for waves leaving the model domain. In the easterly and westerly shear cases, however, westward and eastward propagating waves, respectively, are strongly damped as they approach their critical levels, owing to the strongly scale-dependent vertical diffusion in the model. The profiles of zonal forcing induced by this wave damping are similar to profiles given by critical level absorption, but displaced slightly downward. The magnitude of the zonal forcing is of order 5 m/s/day. It is estimated that if 2% of the area of the Tropics were occupied by storms of similar magnitude, mesoscale gravity waves could provide nearly 1/4 of the zonal forcing required for the QBO.

Alexander, M. J.↗

Research on the Natural Variability of Climate

The scheme for ocean vertical mixing presented in Canuto, Howard, Cheng & Dubovikov and Canuto, Howard, Hogan, Cheng, Dubovikov & Montenegro [GISS mixing scheme] was extended to include the latitudinal dependence reported by Gregg, Sanford & Winkel of the input to the interior ocean turbulence field of energy from internal waves. The resulting latitude dependence was implemented in our module of code for the GISS vertical mixing scheme and tested in the global NCAR-CSM ocean model with 3 degree X 3 degree resolution and 25 levels in the vertical. With the latitude dependence, the background diffusivity decreases from approx. 0.1 sq cm/sec at midlatitudes to approx. less than 0.01 sq cm/sec at the equator. A significant improvement was seen in the tropical ocean, with tropical thermoclines being sharpened in agreement with the requirements of observational studies and the needs of ENS0 modeling. At the same time global measures nf performance such as the meridional overturning and northward heat transport were not adversely affected. Results were presented at the 2004 Layered Ocean Modeling meeting and a paper has been prepared and submitted to Geophysical Research Letters.

Source record↗

Evaluating Summer-Time Ozone Enhancement Events in the Southeast United States

This study evaluates source attribution of ozone (O3) in the southeast US within O3 lamina observed by the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet) system during June 2013. This research applies surface-level and airborne in situ data and chemical transport model, GEOS-Chem, simulations in order to quantify the impact of North American anthropogenic emissions, wildfires, lightning NOx, and background stratospheric transport on the observed O3 lamina. During the summer of 2013, two anomalous O3 layers were observed and evaluated: 1) a nocturnal near-surface enhancement and 2) a late evening elevated (3-6 km above ground level) O3 plume. A "brute force" zeroing method was applied in GEOS-Chem to quantify the impact of individual emission sources and transport pathways on the vertical distribution of O3 during the two observed lamina. These model simulations suggest that the nocturnal O3 enhancement on June 12, 2013 below 3 km was primarily due to wildfire emissions and the fact that daily maximum anthropogenic emission contributions occurred during these night-time hours. During the second case study it was predicted that above average contributions from background stratospheric transport was largely contributing to the O3 lamina observed on June 29, 2013 between 3-6 km. Further evaluation suggested that a stratospheric intrusion was likely the main source contributing to this O3 enhancement between 3-6 km. Supporting information from other models, remote-sensing observations, and ground-based airborne in situ data agree with the source attribution predicted by GEOS-Chem simulations for both case studies. Overall, this study demonstrates the dynamic atmospheric chemistry occurring in the southeast US and displays the various emission sources and transport processes impacting O3 enhancements at different vertical levels of the troposphere.

Laminates↗

The cosmic microwave background radiation

A review the implications of the spectrum and anisotropy of the cosmic microwave background for cosmology. Thermalization and processes generating spectral distortions are discussed. Anisotropy predictions are described and compared with observational constraints. If the evidence for large-scale power in the galaxy distribution in excess of that predicted by the cold dark matter model is vindicated, and the observed structure originated via gravitational instabilities of primordial density fluctuations, the predicted amplitude of microwave background anisotropies on angular scales of a degree and larger must be at least several parts in 10 exp 6.

Silk, Joseph↗

Assessment of Models of Galactic Thermal Dust Emission Using COBE/FIRAS and COBE/DIRBE Observations

Accurate modeling of the spectrum of thermal dust emission at millimeter wavelengths is important for improving the accuracy of foreground subtraction for cosmic microwave background (CMB) measurements, for improving the accuracy with which the contributions of different foreground emission components can be determined, and for improving our understanding of dust composition and dust physics. We fit four models of dust emission to high Galactic latitude COBE/FIRAS and COBE/DIRBE observations from 3 mm to 100m and compare the quality of the fits. We consider the two-level systems (TLS) model because it provides a physically motivated explanation for the observed long wavelength flattening of the dust spectrum and the anti-correlation between emissivity index and dust temperature. We consider the model of Finkbeiner et al. because it has been widely used for CMB studies, and the generalized version of this model that was recently applied to Planck data by Meisner and Finkbeiner. For comparison we have also fit a phenomenological model consisting of the sum of two-graybody components. We find that the two-graybody model gives the best fit and the FDS model gives a significantly poorer fit than the othermodels. The Meisner and Finkbeiner model and the TLS model remain viable for use in Galactic foreground subtraction, but the FIRAS data do not have a sufficient signal-to-noise ratio to provide a strong test of the predicted spectrum at millimeter wavelengths.

Odegard, N.↗

A Fast Infrared Radiative Transfer Model for Overlapping Clouds

A fast infrared radiative transfer model (FIRTM2) appropriate for application to both single-layered and overlapping cloud situations is developed for simulating the outgoing infrared spectral radiance at the top of the atmosphere (TOA). In FIRTM2 a pre-computed library of cloud reflectance and transmittance values is employed to account for one or two cloud layers, whereas the background atmospheric optical thickness due to gaseous absorption can be computed from a clear-sky radiative transfer model. FIRTM2 is applicable to three atmospheric conditions: 1) clear-sky, 2) single-layered ice or water cloud, and 3) two simultaneous cloud layers in a column (e.g., ice cloud overlying water cloud). Moreover, FIRTM2 outputs the derivatives (i.e., Jacobians) of the TOA brightness temperature with respect to cloud optical thickness and effective particle size. Sensitivity analyses have been carried out to assess the performance of FIRTM2 for two spectral regions, namely the longwave (LW) band (587.3 - 1179.5/cm) and the short-to-medium wave (SMW) band (1180.1 - 2228.9/cm). The assessment is carried out in terms of brightness temperature differences (BTD) between FIRTM2 and the well-known discrete ordinates radiative transfer model (DISORT), henceforth referred to as BTD (F-D). The BTD (F-D) values for single-layered clouds are generally less than 0.8 K. For the case of two cloud layers (specifically ice cloud over water cloud), the BTD(F-D) values are also generally less than 0.8 K except for the SMW band for the case of a very high altitude (>15 km) cloud comprised of small ice particles. Note that for clear-sky atmospheres, FIRTM2 reduces to the clear-sky radiative transfer model that is incorporated into FIRTM2, and the errors in this case are essentially those of the clear-sky radiative transfer model.

Niu, Jianguo↗

Anomalies in the topology of the temperature fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background: An analysis of the NPIPE and FFP10 data releases

We present a topological analysis of the temperature fluctuation maps from the Planck 2020 Data Release 4 NPIPE dataset and the Planck 2018 Data Release 3 FFP10 dataset. We performed a multiscale analysis in terms of the homology characteristics of the maps, invoking relative homology to account for the analysis in the presence of masks. We performed our analysis for a range of smoothing scales spanning sub- and super-horizon scales corresponding to a full width at half maximum (FWHM) of 5',10',20',40',80',160',320', and 640', and employed simulations based on the standard model for comparison, which assumes the initial fluctuation field to be an isotropic and homogeneous Gaussian random field. Examining the behavior of topological components, represented by the 0D homology group, we find the observations to be approximately 2σ or less deviant from the simulations for all resolutions and scales for the NPIPE dataset. For the FFP10 dataset, we detect a 2.96σ deviation between the observations and simulations at N = 128, FWHM = 80'. For the topological loops, represented by the first homology group, the simulations and observations are consistent within 2σ for most resolutions and scales for both the datasets. However, for the NPIPE dataset, we observe a high deviation between the observation and simulations in the number of loops at FWHM = 320', but at a low dimensionless threshold ν = –2.5. Under a Gaussian assumption, this would amount to a deviation of ~4σ. However, the distribution in this bin is manifestly non-Gaussian and does not obey Poisson statistics either. In the absence of a true theoretical understanding, we simply note that the significance is higher than what may be resolved by 600 simulations, yielding an empirical p-value of at most 0.0016. Specifically in this case, our tests indicate that the numbers arise from a statistically stable regime, despite being based on small numbers. For the FFP10 dataset, the differences are not as strong as for the NPIPE dataset, indicating a 2.77σ deviation at this resolution and threshold. The Euler characteristic, which is the alternating sum of the ranks of relative homology groups, reflects the deviations in the components and loops. To assess the significance of combined levels for a given scale, we employed the empirical and theoretical versions of the χ 2 test as well as the nonparametric Tukey depth test. Although all statistics exhibit a stable distribution, we favor the empirical version of the χ 2 test in the final interpretation, as it indicates the most conservative differences. For the NPIPE dataset, we find that the components and loops differ at more than 95%, but agree within the 99% confidence level with respect to the base model at N = 32, FWHM = 320'. The Euler characteristic at this resolution displays a per mil deviation. In contrast, the FFP10 dataset shows that the observations are consistent with the base model within the 95% confidence level, at this and smaller scales. This is consistent with the observations of the Planck analysis pipeline via Minkowski functionals. For the largest smoothing scale, N = 16, FWHM = 640', both datasets exhibit an anomalous behavior of the loops, where FFP10 data exhibit a deviation that is larger by an order of magnitude than that of the NPIPE dataset. In contrast, the values for the topological components and the Euler characteristic agree between observations and model to within a confidence level of 99%. However, for the largest scales, the statistics are based on low numbers and may have to be regarded with caution. Even though both datasets exhibit mild to significant discrepancies, they also exhibit contrasting behaviors at various instances. Therefore, we do not find it feasible to convincingly accept or reject the null hypothesis. Disregarding the large-scale anomalies that persist at similar scales in WMAP and Planck, observations of the cosmic microwave background are largely consistent with the standard cosmological model within 2σ.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

The Impact of Electromagnetic Cascades of Very-high Energy Gamma Rays on the Extragalactic Gamma-ray Background

As very high energy (VHE) photons propagate through the extragalactic background light (EBL), they interact with the soft photons of the EBL and initiate electromagnetic cascades of photons and electrons. The collective intensity of a cosmological population emitting at VHEs (such as blazars) will be attenuated at the highest energies through interactions with the EBL and enhanced at lower energies by the resulting cascade. As such, depending on the space density and spectra of the sources and the model of the EBL, cascade radiation can provide a significant contribution to the extragalactic gamma-ray background (EGB). Through deflections of the charged particles of the cascade, an intergalactic magnetic field (IGMF) may leave an imprint on the anisotropy properties of the EGB. The impact of a strong IGMF is to isotropize lower energy cascade photons, inducing a modulation in the anisotropy energy spectrum of the EGB. We discuss the implications of cascade radiation for the origins of the EGB and the nature of the IGMF, as well as insight that will be provided by data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope in the upcoming years.

Venters, Tonia↗

Nine-Year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) Observations: Cosmological Parameter Results

We present cosmological parameter constraints based on the final nine-year Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) data, in conjunction with a number of additional cosmological data sets. The WMAP data alone, and in combination, continue to be remarkably well fit by a six-parameter Lambda-CDM model. When WMAP data are combined with measurements of the high-l cosmic microwave background anisotropy, the baryon acoustic oscillation scale, and the Hubble constant, the matter and energy densities Omega(sub b)h(exp 2), Omega(sub c)h(exp 2)and Omega(sub Lambda), are each determined to a precision of approx. 1.5%. The amplitude of the primordial spectrum is measured to within 3%, and there is now evidence for a tilt in the primordial spectrum at the 5 sigma level, confirming the first detection of tilt based on the five-year WMAP data. At the end of the WMAP mission, the nine-year data decrease the allowable volume of the six-dimensional Lambda-CDM parameter space by a factor of 68,000 relative to pre-WMAP measurements. We investigate a number of data combinations and show that their Lambda-CDM parameter fits are consistent. New limits on deviations from the six-parameter model are presented, for example: the fractional contribution of tensor modes is limited to r < 0.13 (95% CL); the spatial curvature parameter is limited to Omega(sub kappa) = (0.0027 (sub +0.0039) (sup −0.0038;) the summed mass of neutrinos is limited to Sigma M(sub nu) < 0.44 eV (95% CL); and the number of relativistic species is found to lie within N(sub eff) = 3.84 +/- 0+/-40, when the full data are analyzed. The joint constraint on N(sub eff) and the primordial helium abundance, Y(sub He), agrees with the prediction of standard big bang nucleosynthesis. We compare recent Planck measurements of the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect with our seven-year measurements, and show their mutual agreement. Our analysis of the polarization pattern around temperature extrema is updated. This confirms a fundamental prediction of the standard cosmological model and provides a striking illustration of acoustic oscillations and adiabatic initial conditions in the early universe.

cosmology↗

Back-to-back relative-excess observable to identify the chiral magnetic effect

Background: The chiral magnetic effect (CME) is extensively studied in heavy-ion collisions at RHIC and LHC. In the commonly used reaction-plane (RP)-dependent, charge-dependent azimuthal correlator ($Δ_γ$), both the close and back-to-back pairs are included. Many backgrounds contribute to the close pairs (e.g., resonance decays, jet correlations), whereas the back-to-back pairs are relatively free of those backgrounds. Purpose: In order to reduce those backgrounds, we propose a new observable, which only focuses on the back-to-back pairs, namely, the relative back-to-back opposite-sign over same-sign pair excess ($r_{BB}$) as a function of the pair azimuthal orientation with respect to the RP ($φ_{BB}$). Methods: We use analytical calculations and toy model simulations to demonstrate the sensitivity of $r_{BB}(φ_{BB})$ to the CME and its insensitivity to backgrounds. Results: With finite CME, the $φ_{BB}$ distribution of $r_{BB}$ shows a clear characteristic modulation. Its sensitivity to background is significantly reduced compared to the previous $Δ_γ$ observable. The simulation results are consistent with our analytical calculations. Conclusions: In this work, our studies demonstrate that the $r_{BB}(φ_{BB})$ observable is sensitive to the CME signal and rather insensitive to the resonance backgrounds.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Quasilinear theory: the lost ponderomotive effects and why they matter

Quasilinear theory (QLT) has been used for modeling wave–plasma interactions for decades but remains largely heuristic. Plasma inhomogeneity, ponderomotive effects, microscopic fluctuations, and collisions are not easily accommodated from first principles in QLT, and typically are ignored entirely, due to the limitations of the standard Fourier–Laplace global-mode approach. This results in inconsistencies, for example, violation of the action conservation for nonresonant waves. However, these issues can be avoided, and the theory can be substantially generalized and corrected, if QLT is formulated using more suitable analytical tools, particularly, the Weyl symbol calculus. Here, an attempt is made to deliver an accessible review of this modern formulation, provide intuitive calculations for special cases, and elaborate on the connection with the ‘oscillation-center QLT’ originally proposed by Dewar (Phys Fluids 16:1102, 1973). A Fokker–Planck equation for a ‘dressed’ distribution is derived from the Klimontovich equation and captures quasilinear diffusion, ponderomotive forces, and interactions with background fields for a generic Hamiltonian, so many known formulations of QLT for specific plasma models become corollaries of a single unifying theory. Also, waves are allowed to be off-shell (not constrained by a dispersion relation), which allows them to accommodate microscopic fluctuations. This leads to a collision integral of the Balescu–Lenard type that has all the usual properties but is not restricted to any specific plasma model. For on-shell waves, a generalized version of the classic oscillation-center QLT is obtained. Finally, combined with the wave-kinetic equation, this formulation not only conserves particles, momentum, and energy, like the classic QLT but also reinstates the action conservation for nonresonant waves.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗