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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,765 records · Page 98
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Probabilistic Discrete‐Time Models for Spreading Processes in Complex Networks: A Review

Abstract Research into network dynamics of spreading processes typically employs both discrete and continuous time methodologies. Although each approach offers distinct insights, integrating them can be challenging, particularly when maintaining coherence across different time scales. This review focuses on the Microscopic Markov Chain Approach (MMCA), a probabilistic f ramework originally designed for epidemic modeling. MMCA uses discrete dynamics to compute the probabilities of individuals transitioning between epidemiological states. By treating each time step—usually a day—as a discrete event, the approach captures multiple concurrent changes within this time frame. The approach allows to estimate the likelihood of individuals or populations being in specific states, which correspond to distinct epidemiological compartments. This review synthesizes key findings from the application of this approach, providing a comprehensive overview of its utility in understanding epidemic spread.

Granell, Clara↗
DOE OSTI2022

Respiration regimes in rivers: Partitioning source–specific respiration from metabolism time series

Respiration in streams is controlled by the timing, magnitude, and quality of organic matter (OM) inputs from internal primary production and external fluxes. Here, we estimated the contribution of different OM sources to seasonal, annual, and event-driven characteristics of whole-stream ecosystem respiration (ER) using an inverse modeling framework that accounts for possible time-lags between OM inputs and respiration. We modeled site-specific, dynamic OM stocks contributing to ER: autochthonous OM from gross primary production (GPP); allochthonous OM delivered during flow events; and seasonal pulses of leaf litter. OM stored in the sediment and dissolved organic matter (DOM) transported during baseflow were modeled as a stable stock contributing to baseline respiration. We applied this modeling framework to five streams with different catchment size, climate, and canopy cover, where multi-year time series of ER and environmental variables were available. Overall, the model explained between 53% and 74% of observed ER dynamics. Respiration of autochthonous OM tracked seasonal peaks in GPP in spring or summer. Increases in ER were often associated with high-flow events. Respiration associated with litter inputs was larger in smaller streams. Time lags between leaf inputs and respiration were longer than for other OM sources, likely due to lower biological reactivity. Model estimates of source-specific ER and OM stocks compared well with existing measures of OM stocks, inputs, and respiration or decomposition. Our modeling approach has the potential to expand the scale of comparative analyses of OM dynamics within and among freshwater ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Adaptive Variational Quantum Imaginary Time Evolution Approach for Ground State Preparation

Abstract An adaptive variational quantum imaginary time evolution (AVQITE) approach is introduced that yields efficient representations of ground states for interacting Hamiltonians on near‐term quantum computers. It is based on McLachlan's variational principle applied to imaginary time evolution of variational wave functions. The variational parameters evolve deterministically according to equations of motions that minimize the difference to the exact imaginary time evolution, which is quantified by the McLachlan distance. Rather than working with a fixed variational ansatz, where the McLachlan distance is constrained by the quality of the ansatz, the AVQITE method iteratively expands the ansatz along the dynamical path to keep the McLachlan distance below a chosen threshold. This ensures the state is able to follow the quantum imaginary time evolution path in the system Hilbert space rather than in a restricted variational manifold set by a predefined fixed ansatz. AVQITE is used to prepare ground states of H 4 , H 2 O, and BeH 2 molecules, where it yields compact variational ansätze and ground state energies within chemical accuracy. Polynomial scaling of circuit depth with system size is shown through a set of AVQITE calculations of quantum spin models. Finally, quantum Lanczos calculations are demonstrated alongside AVQITE without additional quantum resource costs.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data Federation Challenges in Remote Near-Real-Time Fusion Experiment Data Processing

Fusion energy experiments and simulations provide critical information needed to plan future fusion reactors. As next-generation devices like ITER move toward long-pulse experiments, analyses, including AI and ML, should be performed in a wide range of time and computing constraints, from near-real-time constraints, between-shot analysis, and to campaign-wide long-term analysis. However, the data volume, velocity, and variety make it extremely challenging for analyses using only local computational resources. Researchers need the ability to compose and execute workflows spanning edge resources to large-scale high-performance computing facilities.We present Delta, a system to address data analysis challenges, including AI/ML, in fusion science, by leveraging the ADIOS I/O library and middleware, to support executing science workflows over the wide area network for near-real-time streaming. We discuss the data federation challenges in performing remote workflows, focusing on on-going research work in (1) managing, reducing, and streaming data to minimize I/O and data movement overheads, (2) decompressing and reorganizing data for analysis, and (3) executing workflows for automated data analysis. We introduce examples for deep-learning based data analysis for the fusion domain and demonstrate how we use Delta to construct end-to-end workflows for a fusion device in Korea, connecting a remote DOE facility in the USA. The capability demonstrated by this project is the basis for improving the state of the art for near-real-time data federation amongst remote facilities.

Choi, Jong Youl↗
DOE OSTI2022

Time reversal and CP invariance in Calabi-Yau compactifications

We revisit the question of time reversal and CP invariance in Calabi-Yau compactifications. We show that time reversal invariance is respected by quantum corrections to the prepotential. In particular, field independent θ angles whose presence is dictated by requiring integrality of relevant monodromy transformations can take precisely the quantized values compatible with time reversal invariance. Furthermore, monodromy symmetry enlarges the region on moduli space on which time reversal is not spontaneously broken. We define the action of the CP transformation for multi-parameter models and argue that on the slice of moduli space where it is defined, CP> is trivially a symmetry of the theory. For supersymmetric vacua that lie in this slice, we derive a condition on the third cohomology of the compactification manifold which determines whether CPpreserving fluxes exist that stabilize the moduli to such points. In the case of one-parameter models, the condition is always satisfied.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long-term missing value imputation for time series data using deep neural networks

We present an approach that uses a deep learning model, in particular, a MultiLayer Perceptron, for estimating the missing values of a variable in multivariate time series data. We focus on filling a long continuous gap (e.g., multiple months of missing daily observations) rather than on individual randomly missing observations. Our proposed gap filling algorithm uses an automated method for determining the optimal MLP model architecture, thus allowing for optimal prediction performance for the given time series. We tested our approach by filling gaps of various lengths (three months to three years) in three environmental datasets with different time series characteristics, namely daily groundwater levels, daily soil moisture, and hourly Net Ecosystem Exchange. We compared the accuracy of the gap-filled values obtained with our approach to the widely used R-based time series gap filling methods ImputeTS and mtsdi. The results indicate that using an MLP for filling a large gap leads to better results, especially when the data behave nonlinearly. Thus, our approach enables the use of datasets that have a large gap in one variable, which is common in many long-term environmental monitoring observations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Time-Dependent 600 °C Post-Weld Heat Treatment Response of Laser-Wire-Directed Energy Deposited Austenitic Stainless Steel Claddings on Carbon Steel

Austenitic stainless steel overlay claddings are often used to protect nuclear reactor pressure vessels from corrosion. Arc welding processes are traditionally employed, which require a high heat input to bond the dissimilar metals, creating a large heat-affected zone and high residual stress that demands a lengthy stress-relieving post-weld heat treatment, up to 48 hours. High energy beam (e.g., laser, electron beam) directed energy deposition-based overlay cladding processes show promise for fabricating claddings with superior performance compared to arc welded ones because of their localized heat input; however, their necessity and time of post-weld heat treatment are currently unclear. In this research, we investigate the time dependence of a 600 C stress-relieving post-weld heat treatment of austenitic stainless steel clad on low carbon steel by laser-wire-directed energy deposition, comparing the microstructure and mechanical properties of the as-fabricated condition to 2-, 10-, and 48-hour heat treatment times. Diffusion simulations and microscopy show a gradual carburization of the stainless steel cladding and decarburization of the heat-affected zone/base metal. Nanoindentation testing shows up to a 1.8–2.69 embrittlement in the cladding and a 0.33 to 0.69 softening in the heat-affected zone after the 48-hour post-weld heat treatment. Tensile testing of the cladding composites reveals that increasing post-weld heat treatment time raises clad cracking susceptibility due to intergranular carbide formation and shows that laser-wire-directed energy deposition claddings may not require post-weld heat treatment.

Coating↗
DOE OSTI2021

Timed to save: the added value of accounting for hourly incidence of electricity savings from residential space-conditioning measures

Abstract Previous research has recognized that the value of measures that reduce electricity usage depends upon the timing of the savings generated, but the lack of hourly savings shapes has limited the demonstration of this concept. We develop empirical hourly savings shapes for residential space-conditioning measures from nearly 18,000 efficiency projects in California and show how they combine with the diurnal and seasonal variation in electricity system costs. We find that these measures (cooling replacements; windows, doors, and skylights; and other envelope measures) tend to save electricity when system costs are highest and that the hourly savings account for 1.4–1.5 times as much value as non-time-sensitive estimates of efficiency would predict. We present these impact multipliers for each measure to quantify the additional value revealed by the time-sensitive approach. We show that this additional value is similar in an evolving electricity grid with storage, rather than natural gas generation, as the marginal resource.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of the time for steam generator trip due to cyber intrusions

The time required to trip a pressurized water reactor (PWR) by inserting malicious signals into its steam generator (SG) control system has been studied using the Generic PWR (GPWR) Simulator. A semi-analytical model is developed to approximately reproduce the simulator response and understand the dynamics of the control unit. A series of two proportional-integral controllers determines control action according to preset constants, the readings from the feedwater level sensor, and those from feedwater and steam flowrate transmitters. It is observed that the most important factor that determines whether a trip will occur is how much additional water is added to or withheld from the SG over time compared to normal operating conditions. In order to determine the effects of control action on the SG, changes in mass inventory are considered. This approach models the SG water level as a function of mass inventory and has a backward temporal memory. A Python interface is developed for the GPWR framework to automatically simulate different spoofing scenarios and post-process the related data. We observe that the trip times predominantly depend on flow mismatch and/or level errors. Controller parameters, including the integral time and gain constants, either speed up or slow down the rate of progression to a trip setpoint but do not cause a trip by themselves. The reactor can trip on a high-level signal when the reading crosses above 78%, increased from its reference level of 57%, or a low-level reading when it is below 25%. The present results show roughly how long the operators would have to respond to an attack, given a specific set of spoofing signals within the issue space analyzed. Furthermore, we have generated a simple surface by fitting a combination of exponential functions to the data obtained from the GPWR Simulator. In general, trips on a low level have been observed to occur faster than those on a high level.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Dynamic consensus and extended high gain observers as a tool to achieve practical frequency synchronization in power systems under unknown time-varying power demand

In this paper, we consider the frequency synchronization problem in a network of lossless, connected, and network-reduced power system. Frequency synchronization is an important problem in power systems as frequency deviation can lead to degraded power quality, tripping of generators, etc. We present a load-estimator-based consensus algorithm in a network of fourth-order generator models that achieves practical frequency synchronization in the presence of unknown time-varying power demand. We do not assume that the demand is generated by a known model. We follow a multiple time-scale approach for the stability analysis. It is shown that synchronization is achieved for the case of constant power demand, by showing that the system is exponentially stable. Furthermore, for the case of time-varying power demand, we show the error trajectories are ultimately bounded, and the synchronization error is proportional to an upper bound on the derivative of the time-varying power demand. We simulate the controller performance on a four area network which is equivalent to the IEEE New England 39-Bus system.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Imaginary admittance and charge transfer resistance correlate to the physiological status of Shewanella oneidensis cultures in real time

Monitoring microbial activity is essential for industrial and environmental applications to proceed efficiently. To minimize time and labor-intensive monitoring, a new paradigm is required for in-situ, real time analysis. Since bioconversion of organics is accomplished by microorganisms through the oxidation of feedstocks linked to the reduction of electron acceptors, microorganisms can be viewed as electrochemical catalysts. In this respect, cell membranes have an electrical potential, which is analogous to a conventional capacitor and linked dynamically to cellular activity. Here, in this study, we demonstrate the use of electrochemical impedance spectrometry (EIS) and cyclic voltammetry (CV) for monitoring microbial metabolic activity in real time, in-situ. The effect of organic electron donors as a function of concentration to the physiological status of strains of Shewanella oneidensis was determined. In this study, the pyomelanin overproducer (S. oneidensis ΔhmgA) and the pyomelanin deficient mutant (S. oneidensis ΔmelA) were chosen due to different surface electrochemical characteristics along with differences in oxygen utilization efficiency. CV, relative admittance, phase shift and permittivity changed with growth status and correlated with electron flow from organic carbon sources and terminal electron acceptor availability. This work offers a novel and inexpensive approach to real time monitoring with the advantage of abundant data.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

An implicit-in-time DPG formulation of the 1D1V Vlasov-Poisson equations

Efficient solution of the Vlasov equation, which can be up to six-dimensional, is key to the simulation of many difficult problems in plasma physics. The discontinuous Petrov-Galerkin (DPG) finite element methodology provides a framework for the development of stable (in the sense of Ladyzhenskaya–Babuška–Brezzi conditions) finite element formulations, with built-in mechanisms for adaptivity. While DPG has been studied extensively in the context of steady-state problems and to a lesser extent with space-time discretizations of transient problems, relatively little attention has been paid to time-marching approaches. In the present work, we study a first application of time-marching DPG to the Vlasov equation, using backward Euler for a Vlasov-Poisson discretization. We demonstrate adaptive mesh refinement for two problems: the two-stream instability problem, and a cold diode problem. Furthermore, we believe the present work is novel both in its application of unstructured adaptive mesh refinement (as opposed to block-structured adaptivity, which has been studied previously) in the context of Vlasov-Poisson, as well as in its application of DPG to the Vlasov-Poisson system. We also discuss extensive additions to the Camellia library in support of both the present formulation as well as extensions to higher dimensions, Maxwell equations, and space-time formulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Incorporating space and time into random forest models for analyzing geospatial patterns of drug-related crime incidents in a major U.S. metropolitan area

The opioid crisis has hit American cities hard, and research on spatial and temporal patterns of drug-related activities including detecting and predicting clusters of crime incidents involving particular types of drugs is useful for distinguishing hot zones where drugs are present that in turn can further provide a basis for assessing and providing related treatment services. In this study, we investigated spatiotemporal patterns of more than 52,000 reported incidents of drug-related crime at block group granularity in Chicago, IL between 2016 and 2019. We applied a space-time analysis framework and machine learning approaches to build a model using training data that identified whether certain locations and built environment and sociodemographic factors were correlated with drug-related crime incident patterns, and establish the top contributing factors that underlaid the trends. Space and time, together with multiple driving factors, were incorporated into a random forest model to analyze these changing patterns. We accommodated both spatial and temporal autocorrelation in the model learning process to assist with capturing the changes over time and tested the capabilities of the space-time random forest model by predicting drug-related activity hot zones. Overall, we focused particularly on crime incidents that involved heroin and synthetic drugs as these have been key drug types that have highly impacted cities during the opioid crisis in the U.S.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A comparison between residential relocation timing of Sydney and Chicago residents: A Bayesian survival analysis

We report that understanding households' behaviour in residential relocation timing is of great importance in the field of transport engineering and economics. This research aims to develop a residential relocation model by considering the potential dynamic impacts of other households' decisions and variables, including economic and demographic attributes, housing features, intra-household decision-making structures, travel mode choice, and other life-course attributes. A multivariate parametric survival model with both fixed and time-varying covariates is developed. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first paper in the literature of residential relocation timing to propose the use of a Bayesian model in contrast to the widely used classic frequentist approach and have conducted a discussion on its advantages. An emerging residential relocation dataset collected for two cities in Australia and the USA (Sydney and Chicago cities) has been used, which covers residence, vehicle ownership, occupation, education, economic and demographic attributes of respondents. A comprehensive comparison between the results of two cities and a comparison between two Bayesian and frequentist approaches are made. This study confirms the impact of life-course variables, intra-household decision-making behaviours, and sociodemographic attributes on home mobility. According to the model outputs, the accelerating or decelerating impact of explanatory variables on the relocation timing has been almost the same in the two cities. The Bayesian model was confirmed to have some advantages over the frequentist model, including being straightforward to interpret, availability of making inferences on the results, and ease of handling complex models, and optimisation convergence complexities.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Simulation of hardened cement degradation and estimation of uncertainty in predicted failure times with peridynamics

Modeling the degradation of cement-based infrastructure due to aqueous environmental conditions continues to be a challenge. In order to develop a capability to predict concrete infrastructure failure due to chemical degradation, here we created a chemomechanical model of the effects of long-term water exposure on cement paste. The model couples the mechanical static equilibrium balance with reactive–diffusive transport and incorporates fracture and failure via peridynamics (a meshless simulation method). The model includes fundamental aspects of degradation of ordinary Portland cement (OPC) paste, including the observed softening, reduced toughness, and shrinkage of the cement paste, and increased reactivity and transport with water induced degradation. This version of the model focuses on the first stage of cement paste decalcification, the dissolution of portlandite. Given unknowns in the cement paste degradation process and the cost of uncertainty quantification (UQ), we adopt a minimally complex model in two dimensions (2D) in order to perform sensitivity analysis and UQ. We calibrate the model to existing experimental data using simulations of common tests such as flexure, compression and diffusion. Then we calculate the global sensitivity and uncertainty of predicted failure times based on variation of eleven unique and fundamental material properties. We observed particularly strong sensitivities to the diffusion coefficient, the reaction rate, and the shrinkage with degradation. Also, the predicted time of first fracture is highly correlated with the time to total failure in compression, which implies fracture can indicate impending degradation induced failure; however, the distributions of the two events overlap so the lead time may be minimal. Extension of the model to include the multiple reactions that describe complete degradation, viscous relaxation, post-peak load mechanisms, and to three dimensions to explore the interactions of complex fracture patterns evoked by more realistic geometry is straightforward and ongoing.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

A new probe of μ Hz gravitational waves with FRB timing

We propose Fast Radio Burst (FRB) timing, which uses the precision measurements of the arrival time differences of repeated FRB signals along multiple sightlines, as a new probe of gravitational waves (GWs) around nHz to μHz frequencies, with the highest frequency limited by FRB repeating period. The anticipated experiment requires a sightline separation of tens of AU, achieved by sending radio telescopes to space. We find the signal of arrival time difference induced by GWs depends only on the local GWs in the solar system and we can correlate the measurements from different FRB sources or the same source with different repeaters, which leads to a better sensitivity with a larger number of FRB repeaters detected. Here, the projected sensitivity shows this method is a competitive probe in the nHz to μ Hz frequency range. It can fill the 'μHz gap' between pulsar timing arrays and Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) and is complementary to other proposals of GW detection in this frequency band.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling the 4D discharge of lithium-ion batteries with a multiscale time-dependent deep learning framework

The lithium-ion battery (LIB) field is moving towards the direction of investigating spatially resolved physical phenomena in the 3D porous microstructure of electrodes. These pore-scale simulations give new insights into the local dynamics of lithiation/de-lithiation and charge transport, Nevertheless, the computational time of these simulations limits the integration of these models in optimization workflows of cycling conditions or electrode manufacturing processes. Machine learning models present a way of assessing in real-time the performance of materials. While several successful techniques for replicating simulations with machine learning have been proposed, this case study presents a more demanding problem, due to the necessity of understanding the behavior of heterogeneous 3D local data, as it evolves in time: this poses both a scientific and a technical challenge. To this end, we propose an autoregressive multiscale convolutional neural network model to predict relevant quantities at the pore-scale in the solid phase: the lithium concentration (in the active material) and potential (in the active material and carbon binder). Here, these are ultimately used to reconstruct the battery discharge curve. 3D images of the electrode microstructures are the input to the network, trained with a dataset of finite element method simulations to predict the discharge behavior of the cathode side in lithium ion batteries. We propose this machine learning model as a proof-of-concept of the applicability of multiscale networks for time-dependent physics problems. The trained model exhibits very high accuracy (with errors lower than 2 %) in forecasting the discharge behavior of new unseen cathodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Seismic monitoring of EGS fracture stimulations at Utah FORGE (Part 1): Time-lapse variations of b-values and Shear-wave Splitting Rates of induced microearthquakes

Characterizing geologic formations near geothermal wells is crucial for efficient extraction of subsurface geothermal energy resources. To monitor effective fracture stimulation of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS), we analyze a catalog of induced microearthquakes to characterize seismicity induced by Phase 2C fracture stimulations of the Utah FORGE project and derive the b-values for 424 induced microearthquakes in three stages of fracture stimulation. Here, we find the time-lapse variations of these b-values. We apply eigenvector rotation and waveform correlation to 3C geophone data to separate fast S 1 and slow S 2 waves, determine their directions, measure their lag time, and calculate the S-wave splitting rate (SSR) for six induced microearthquakes in Stage 1 and 21 in Stage 3. Both SSR values and b-values increase with time. The increase in these values may be related to heavily fractured zones created by fracture stimulations during Stage 2 injections. Large and highly variable SSR values in Stage 3 may reflect heterogeneities in the fracture zones. Time-lapse variations of SSR values and b-values may be one of the most useful approaches to monitoring and characterizing the effectiveness and efficiency of various types of fracture stimulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗