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DOE OSTI2014

Sci—Fri PM: Dosimetry—05: Megavoltage electron backscatter: EGSnrc results versus 21 experiments

The accuracy of electron backscatter calculations at megavoltage energies is important for many medical physics applications. In this study, EGSnrc calculations of megavoltage electron backscatter (1–22 MeV) are performed and compared to the data from 21 experiments published between 1954 and 1993 for 25 single elements with atomic numbers from 3 to 92. Typical experimental uncertainties are 15%. For EGSnrc simulations, an ideal detector is assumed, and the most accurate electron physics options are employed, for a combined statistical and systematic uncertainty of 3%. The quantities compared are the backscatter coefficient and the energy spectra (in the backward hemisphere and at specific detector locations). For the backscatter coefficient, the overall agreement is within ±2% in the absolute value of the backscatter coefficient (in per cent), and within 11% of the individual backscatter values. EGSnrc results are systematically on the higher end of the spread of the experimental data, which could be partially from systematic experimental errors discussed in the literature. For the energy spectra, reasonable agreement between simulations and experiments is observed, although there are significant variations in the experimental data. At the lower end of the spectra, simulations are higher than some experimental data, which could be due to reduced experimental sensitivity to lower energy electrons and/or over-estimation by EGSnrc for backscattered secondary electrons. In conclusion, overall good agreement is observed between EGSnrc backscatter calculations and experimental measurements for megavoltage electrons. There is a need for high quality experimental data for the energy spectra of backscattered electrons.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-J-166: Sensitivity of Clinically Relevant Dosimetric Parameters to Contouring Uncertainty During Post Implant Dosimetry of Prostate Permanent Seed Implants

Purpose: There is a strong evidence relating post-implant dosimetry for permanent seed prostate brachytherpy to local control rates. The delineation of the prostate on CT images, however, represents a challenge as it is difficult to confidently identify the prostate borders from soft tissue surrounding it. This study aims at quantifying the sensitivity of clinically relevant dosimetric parameters to prostate contouring uncertainty. Methods: The post-implant CT images and plans for a cohort of 43 patients, who have received I–125 permanent prostate seed implant in our centre, were exported to MIM Symphony LDR brachytherapy treatment planning system (MIM Software Inc., Cleveland, OH). The prostate contours in post-implant CT images were expanded/contracted uniformly for margins of ±1.00mm, ±2.00mm, ±3.00mm, ±4.00mm and ±5.00mm (±0.01mm). The values for V100 and D90 were extracted from Dose Volume Histograms for each contour and compared. Results: The mean value of V100 and D90 was obtained as 92.3±8.4% and 108.4±12.3% respectively (Rx=145Gy). V100 was reduced by −3.2±1.5%, −7.2±3.0%, −12.8±4.0%, −19.0±4.8%, − 25.5±5.4% for expanded contours of prostate with margins of +1mm, +2mm, +3mm, +4mm, and +5mm, respectively, while it was increased by 1.6±1.2%, 2.4±2.4%, 2.7±3.2%, 2.9±4.2%, 2.9±5.1% for the contracted contours. D90 was reduced by −6.9±3.5%, −14.5±6.1%, −23.8±7.1%, − 33.6±8.5%, −40.6±8.7% and increased by 4.1±2.6%, 6.1±5.0%, 7.2±5.7%, 8.1±7.3% and 8.1±7.3% for the same set of contours. Conclusion: Systematic expansion errors of more than 1mm may likely render a plan sub-optimal. Conversely contraction errors may Result in labeling a plan likely as optimal. The use of MRI images to contour the prostate should results in better delineation of prostate organ which increases the predictive value of post-op plans. Since observers tend to overestimate the prostate volume on CT, compared with MRI, the impact of the contouring uncertainty on V100 and D90 fortunately, has a conservative effect of underestimating the prostate coverage.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

MO-FG-CAMPUS-JeP1-02: Proton Range Verification of Scanned Pencil Beams Using Prompt Gamma Imaging

Purpose: Prompt gammas are emitted along the proton beam path and have an emission profile correlated with the depth dose profile. In this study, the accuracy of in-vivo proton range verification using a 1-D prompt gamma camera is assessed. Methods: The 1-D camera is comprised of a tungsten slit collimator positioned in front of a linear array of LYSO scintillating crystals coupled to silicon photomultipliers. The imaged gamma profiles of individual pencil beam spots and energy layers were analyzed by determining the relative shifts from the expected gamma profiles based on analytic prediction or reference measurements. The range retrieval precision was evaluated by reproducibility measurements and by irradiation through a heterogeneous phantom composed of materials with known stopping power ratios. The camera was evaluated at clinical doses in pencil beam scanning mode on a head-and-neck phantom (HN). Two scenarios were studied: 5 mm systematic range error; and setup error of 10 mm transverse to the proton beam. Results: The camera range retrieval precision was 2 mm at clinical doses. For the heterogeneous phantom and HN phantom studies, the discrepancies between the analytic model and measurements were less than 2 mm for both spot and iso-energy layer analysis. For the simulated 5 mm range error, the retrieved shifts were 4.3±2.0 mm. For the 10 mm setup error, large shifts (> 4 mm) were observed for some spots due to differences in the irradiated and expected beam path from the measurements without setup error. Conclusion: Our studies demonstrated that in-vivo proton range verification is feasible using a 1D prompt gamma camera with a 2 mm range retrieval precision. Pencil beam spot under or over ranging can be detected via comparison between measured and expected profiles.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

Revisiting Statistical Aspects of Nuclear Material Accounting

Nuclear material accounting (NMA) is the only safeguards system whose benefits are routinely quantified. Process monitoring (PM) is another safeguards system that is increasingly used, and one challenge is how to quantify its benefit. This paper considers PM in the role of enabling frequent NMA, which is referred to as near-real-time accounting (NRTA). We quantify NRTA benefits using period-driven and data-driven testing. Period-driven testing makes a decision to alarm or not at fixed periods. Data-driven testing decides as the data arrives whether to alarm or continue testing. The difference between period-driven and datad-riven viewpoints is illustrated by using one-year and two-year periods. For both one-year and two-year periods, period-driven NMA using once-per-year cumulative material unaccounted for (CUMUF) testing is compared to more frequent Shewhart and joint sequential cusum testing using either MUF or standardized, independently transformed MUF (SITMUF) data. We show that the data-driven viewpoint is appropriate for NRTA and that it can be used to compare safeguards effectiveness. In addition to providing period-driven and data-driven viewpoints, new features include assessing the impact of uncertainty in the estimated covariance matrix of the MUF sequence and the impact of both random and systematic measurement errors.

Burr, T.↗

DOE OSTI2019

Improving Wind Energy Forecasting through Numerical Weather Prediction Model Development

The primary goal of the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) is to advance the state-of-the-art of wind energy forecasting in complex terrain. To achieve this goal, a comprehensive 18-month field measurement campaign was conducted in the region of the Columbia River basin. The observations were used to diagnose and quantify systematic forecast errors in the operational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model during weather events of particular concern to wind energy forecasting. Examples of such events are cold pools, gap flows, thermal troughs/marine pushes, mountain waves, and topographic wakes. WFIP2 model development has focused on the boundary layer and surface-layer schemes, cloud–radiation interaction, the representation of drag associated with subgrid-scale topography, and the representation of wind farms in the HRRR. Additionally, refinements to numerical methods have helped to improve some of the common forecast error modes, especially the high wind speed biases associated with early erosion of mountain–valley cold pools. This study describes the model development and testing undertaken during WFIP2 and demonstrates forecast improvements. Specifically, WFIP2 found that mean absolute errors in rotor-layer wind speed forecasts could be reduced by 5%–20% in winter by improving the turbulent mixing lengths, horizontal diffusion, and gravity wave drag. The model improvements made in WFIP2 are also shown to be applicable to regions outside of complex terrain. Ongoing and future challenges in model development will also be discussed.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Direct Writing of X-ray Gratings Using Zone-Plate-Array Lithography (ZPAL)

With the objective of providing the synchrotron and free-electron-laser communities with rapid turnaround and low prices for the highest quality and most advanced gratings and diffractive-focusing optics, LumArray has made specific improvements to its ZP-150 maskless photolithography system, which is based on Zone-Plate-Array Lithography (ZPAL), a technology unique to Lumarray. ZPAL’s advantages include an ability to correct in software for systematic patterning errors. Emphasis was placed on interferometric measurements of various contributors to patterning errors using Fizeau interferometry and a Mireau technique that was developed specifically for measuring errors within a micron-scale area. Average line-placement error was reduced below 20 nm using both pattern-file distortion and address-grid modification. The preferred implementation, address-grid modification, is hardware-based and requires no user intervention while also correcting more types of error. With continued iteration and refinement of the error measurements, we anticipate achieving global line-placement error below10nm. In order to investigate line-edge smoothness and high-frequency line-placement errors, a scheme for inspecting micron-sized areas was invented and implemented based on Mireau interferometry. This enabled the various contributions to be separately evaluated and measured. These included: exposure-dose variation, pattern-writing strategy and errors in the positioning of the microlenses. Deleterious crosstalk between microlenses was minimized via a pattern-dependent software modification. The impact of exposure threshold was revealed and adjustment made. The impact of address-grid fineness on line-edge roughness was likewise shown. Lastly, techniques were developed to measure and correct errors in the positioning of microlenses within the array. We expect final calibration of microlens positions to within 5nm.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB): 1998-2015

This paper validates the performance of the physics-based Physical Solar Model (PSM) data set in the National Solar Radiation Data Base (NSRDB) to quantify the accuracy of the magnitude and the spatial and temporal variability of the solar radiation data. Achieving higher penetrations of solar energy on the electric grid and reducing integration costs requires accurate knowledge of the available solar resource. Understanding the impacts of clouds and other meteorological constituents on the solar resource and quantifying intra-/inter-hour, seasonal, and interannual variability are essential for accurately designing utility-scale solar energy projects. Solar resource information can be obtained from ground-based measurement stations and/or from modeled data sets. The availability of measurements is scarce, both temporally and spatially, because it is expensive to maintain a high-density solar radiation measurement network that collects good quality data for long periods of time. On the other hand, high temporal and spatial resolution gridded satellite data can be used to estimate surface radiation for long periods of time and is extremely useful for solar energy development. Because of the advantages of satellite-based solar resource assessment, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory developed the PSM. The PSM produced gridded solar irradiance -- global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI), and diffuse horizontal irradiance -- for the NSRDB at a 4-km by 4-km spatial resolution and half-hourly temporal resolution covering the 18 years from 1998-2015. The NSRDB also contains additional ancillary meteorological data sets, such as temperature, relative humidity, surface pressure, dew point, and wind speed. Details of the model and data are available at https://nsrdb.nrel.gov. The results described in this paper show that the hourly-averaged satellite-derived data have a systematic (bias) error of approximately +5% for GHI and less than +10% for DNI; however, the scatter (root mean square error [RMSE]) difference is higher for the hourly averages.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Evaluation of the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB): 1998-2015

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Enabling Explosives and Contraband Detection

We present the design and performance of a proof-of-concept 32 channel material identification system. Our system is based on the energy-dependent attenuation of fast neutrons for four elements: hydrogen, carbon, nitrogen and oxygen. We describe a new approach to obtaining a broad range of neutron energies to probe a sample, as well as our technique for reconstructing the molar densities within a sample. The system's performance as a function of time-of-flight energy resolution is explored using a Geant4-based Monte Carlo. Our results indicate that, with the expected detector response of our system, we will be able to determine the molar density of all four elements to within a 20-30% accuracy in a two hour scan time. In many cases this error is systematically low, thus the ratio between elements is more accurate. This degree of accuracy is enough to distinguish, for example, a sample of water from a sample of pure hydrogen peroxide: the ratio of oxygen to hydrogen is reconstructed to within 8 0.5% of the true value. Finally, with future algorithm development that accounts for backgrounds caused by scattering within the sample itself, the accuracy of molar densities, not ratios, may improve to the 5-10% level for a two hour scan time. Experimental performance was evaluated with various thicknesses of polyethylene. The detector response in terms of energy, particle identification, and timing are presented as well.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2026

AI/ML-Enhanced Wind Forecasts for Reducing Uncertainty in Prescribed Fire Planning

Prescribed fire is a vital tool for ecosystem management and wildfire risk reduction but its escalation is constrained by overly conservative burn windows because of uncertainties, for instance, in wind forecasts. This review describes the state of the art in weather product use by fire/smoke models and identifies three priority research gaps that artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) is well positioned to address: (1) spatial and temporal downscaling to meter-scale, sub-hourly wind fields; (2) bias correction for systematic model errors in complex terrain; and (3) robust uncertainty quantification to inform ensemble-based simulations. Emerging AI/ML techniques offer promising frameworks to address all three challenges. By providing high-resolution, bias-corrected, and probabilistic wind fields, AI/ML-enhanced forecasts will allow for expanded burn windows, improved ignition strategy design and a reduced reliance on expert intuition, especially when a prescribed fire is introduced into new areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

DEEP WIDEBAND SINGLE POINTINGS AND MOSAICS IN RADIO INTERFEROMETRY: HOW ACCURATELY DO WE RECONSTRUCT INTENSITIES AND SPECTRAL INDICES OF FAINT SOURCES?

Many deep wideband wide-field radio interferometric surveys are being designed to accurately measure intensities, spectral indices, and polarization properties of faint source populations. In this paper, we compare various wideband imaging methods to evaluate the accuracy to which intensities and spectral indices of sources close to the confusion limit can be reconstructed. We simulated a wideband single-pointing (C-array, L-Band (1–2 GHz)) and 46-pointing mosaic (D-array, C-Band (4–8 GHz)) JVLA observation using a realistic brightness distribution ranging from 1 μ Jy to 100 mJy and time-, frequency-, polarization-, and direction-dependent instrumental effects. The main results from these comparisons are (a) errors in the reconstructed intensities and spectral indices are larger for weaker sources even in the absence of simulated noise, (b) errors are systematically lower for joint reconstruction methods (such as Multi-Term Multi-Frequency-Synthesis (MT-MFS)) along with A-Projection for accurate primary beam correction, and (c) use of MT-MFS for image reconstruction eliminates Clean-bias (which is present otherwise). Auxiliary tests include solutions for deficiencies of data partitioning methods (e.g., the use of masks to remove clean bias and hybrid methods to remove sidelobes from sources left un-deconvolved), the effect of sources not at pixel centers, and the consequences of various other numerical approximations within software implementations. This paper also demonstrates the level of detail at which such simulations must be done in order to reflect reality, enable one to systematically identify specific reasons for every trend that is observed, and to estimate scientifically defensible imaging performance metrics and the associated computational complexity of the algorithms/analysis procedures.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2016

A constraint on the formation timescale of the young open cluster NGC 2264: lithium abundance of pre-main sequence stars

The timescale of cluster formation is an essential parameter in order to understand the formation process of star clusters. Pre-main sequence (PMS) stars in nearby young open clusters reveal a large spread in brightness. If the spread were considered to be a result of a real spread in age, the corresponding cluster formation timescale would be about 5–20 Myr. Hence it could be interpreted that star formation in an open cluster is prolonged for up to a few tens of Myr. However, difficulties in reddening correction, observational errors, and systematic uncertainties introduced by imperfect evolutionary models for PMS stars can result in an artificial age spread. Alternatively, we can utilize Li abundance as a relative age indicator of PMS star to determine the cluster formation timescale. The optical spectra of 134 PMS stars in NGC 2264 have been obtained with MMT/Hectochelle. The equivalent widths have been measured for 86 PMS stars with a detectable Li line (3500<T{sub eff}[K]⩽6500). Li abundance under the condition of local thermodynamic equilibrium (LTE) was derived using the conventional curve of growth method. After correction for non-LTE effects, we find that the initial Li abundance of NGC 2264 is A(Li)=3.2±0.2. From the distribution of the Li abundances, the underlying age spread of the visible PMS stars is estimated to be about 3–4 Myr and this, together with the presence of embedded populations in NGC 2264, suggests that the cluster formed on a timescale shorter than 5 Myr.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Synoptic VLBI Technique for Localizing Nonrepeating Fast Radio Bursts with CHIME/FRB

We demonstrate the blind interferometric detection and localization of two fast radio bursts (FRBs) with subarcminute precision on the 400 m baseline between the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment (CHIME) and the CHIME Pathfinder. In the same spirit as Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI), the telescopes were synchronized to separate clocks, and the channelized voltage (herein referred to as baseband) data were saved to a disk with correlation performed offline. The simultaneous wide field of view and high sensitivity required for blind FRB searches implies a high data rate—6.5 terabits per second (Tb/s) for CHIME and 0.8 Tb s{sup −1} for the Pathfinder. Since such high data rates cannot be continuously saved, we buffer data from both telescopes locally in memory for ≈40 s, and write to the disk upon receipt of a low-latency trigger from the CHIME Fast Radio Burst Instrument (CHIME/FRB). The ≈200 deg{sup 2} field of view of the two telescopes allows us to use in-field calibrators to synchronize the two telescopes without needing either separate calibrator observations or an atomic timing standard. In addition to our FRB observations, we analyze bright single pulses from the pulsars B0329+54 and B0355+54 to characterize systematic localization errors. Our results demonstrate the successful implementation of key software, triggering, and calibration challenges for CHIME/FRB Outriggers: cylindrical VLBI outrigger telescopes which, along with the CHIME telescope, will localize thousands of single FRB events with sufficient precision to unambiguously associate a host galaxy with each burst.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Shear Measurement with Poorly Resolved Images

Weak lensing studies typically require excellent seeing conditions for the purpose of maximizing the number density of well-resolved galaxy images. It is interesting to ask to what extent the seeing size limits the usefulness of the astronomical images in weak lensing. In this work, we study this issue with the data of the DECam Legacy Survey, which is a part of the target selection program for the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument. Using the Fourier_Quad shear measurement pipeline, we demonstrate that images with relatively poor seeing conditions (~1$^"_.$5) can still yield accurate shear estimators. We do not find any correlation between systematic shear error and the image resolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Emerging low-cloud feedback and adjustment in global satellite observations

From mid-2003 to mid-2024, a global decrease in low-cloud amount enhanced the absorption of solar radiation by 0.22±0.07 W m −2 per decade (±1σ range), accelerating the energy imbalance trend during that period (0.44 W m −2 per decade). Through controlling factor analysis, here we show that the low-cloud trend is due to a combination of cloud feedback and adjustments to greenhouse gases and aerosols (respectively 0.09±0.02, 0.05±0.03, and 0.03±0.03 W m −2 per decade), which jointly account for 74 % of the trend. The contribution of natural climate variability is weak but uncertain (0.01±0.08 W m −2 per decade), owing to a poorly constrained trend in boundary-layer inversion strength. Importantly, the observed low-cloud radiative trend lies well within the range of values simulated by contemporary global climate models under conditions close to present day. Any systematic model error in the representation of present-day global energy imbalance trends is thus likely to originate in processes unrelated to low clouds.

Geosciences↗

NASA NTRS1972

A new method for the determination of the mixing ratio hydrogen to helium in the giant planets.

By using a numerical iterative method, it is demonstrated that the mixing ratio H2/He on the giant planets can be inferred from spectral measurements of the intensity emitted by these planets in the far infrared range. The method is successfully applied to synthetic spectra of Saturn computed from atmospheric thermal models. The effect of random and systematic measurement errors on the determination of the mixing ratio is also studied.

Gautier, D.↗

NASA NTRS1973

Precision selenodesy via differential interferometry.

Review of the first results obtained from the development and use of a new type of differential receiver designed to determine the relative locations on the lunar surface of two Apollo-deposited transmitters. This receiver has made it possible to reduce random and systematic instrumental errors to nearly negligible levels (displacement uncertainties equivalent to a few centimeters).

Counselman, C. C., III↗

NASA NTRS1973

Lunar baselines and libration from differential VLBI observations of ALSEPs

Differential very-long-baseline interferometric observations of signals from Apollo Lunar Surface Experiment Package telemetry transmitters will yield the relative projected positions of the transmitters with uncertainty of only 1-3 m, set mainly by uncertainty of the lunar ephemeris. Noise and systematic instrumental errors which in the past affected similar observations have been reduced to the equivalent of a few centimeters on the lunar surface by the development of a new type of differential receiver. Continued observations should yield a determination of the motion of the moon about its center of mass with uncertainty less than 1 sec of selenocentric arc. Improvements (by other means) in our knowledge of the moon's orbital motion would allow a further order-of-magnitude refinement in the libration and relative position results obtainable by differential VLBI.

Counselman, C. C., III↗