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NASA NTRS1990

Intelligent control and adaptive systems; Proceedings of the Meeting, Philadelphia, PA, Nov. 7, 8, 1989

Various papers on intelligent control and adaptive systems are presented. Individual topics addressed include: control architecture for a Mars walking vehicle, representation for error detection and recovery in robot task plans, real-time operating system for robots, execution monitoring of a mobile robot system, statistical mechanics models for motion and force planning, global kinematics for manipulator planning and control, exploration of unknown mechanical assemblies through manipulation, low-level representations for robot vision, harmonic functions for robot path construction, simulation of dual behavior of an autonomous system. Also discussed are: control framework for hand-arm coordination, neural network approach to multivehicle navigation, electronic neural networks for global optimization, neural network for L1 norm linear regression, planning for assembly with robot hands, neural networks in dynamical systems, control design with iterative learning, improved fuzzy process control of spacecraft autonomous rendezvous using a genetic algorithm.

Rodriguez, Guillermo↗

NASA NTRS1996

Automated SEM Modal Analysis Applied to the Diogenites

Analysis of volume proportions of minerals, or modal analysis, is routinely accomplished by point counting on an optical microscope, but the process, particularly on brecciated samples such as the diogenite meteorites, is tedious and prone to error by misidentification of very small fragments, which may make up a significant volume of the sample. Precise volume percentage data can be gathered on a scanning electron microscope (SEM) utilizing digital imaging and an energy dispersive spectrometer (EDS). This form of automated phase analysis reduces error, and at the same time provides more information than could be gathered using simple point counting alone, such as particle morphology statistics and chemical analyses. We have previously studied major, minor, and trace-element chemistry of orthopyroxene from a suite of diogenites. This abstract describes the method applied to determine the modes on this same suite of meteorites and the results of that research. The modal abundances thus determined add additional information on the petrogenesis of the diogenites. In addition, low-abundance phases such as spinels were located for further analysis by this method.

Bowman, L. E.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Multi-Axis Identifiability Using Single-Surface Parameter Estimation Maneuvers on the X-48B Blended Wing Body

The problem of parameter estimation on hybrid-wing-body type aircraft is complicated by the fact that many design candidates for such aircraft involve a large number of aero- dynamic control effectors that act in coplanar motion. This fact adds to the complexity already present in the parameter estimation problem for any aircraft with a closed-loop control system. Decorrelation of system inputs must be performed in order to ascertain individual surface derivatives with any sort of mathematical confidence. Non-standard control surface configurations, such as clamshell surfaces and drag-rudder modes, further complicate the modeling task. In this paper, asymmetric, single-surface maneuvers are used to excite multiple axes of aircraft motion simultaneously. Time history reconstructions of the moment coefficients computed by the solved regression models are then compared to each other in order to assess relative model accuracy. The reduced flight-test time required for inner surface parameter estimation using multi-axis methods was found to come at the cost of slightly reduced accuracy and statistical confidence for linear regression methods. Since the multi-axis maneuvers captured parameter estimates similar to both longitudinal and lateral-directional maneuvers combined, the number of test points required for the inner, aileron-like surfaces could in theory have been reduced by 50%. While trends were similar, however, individual parameters as estimated by a multi-axis model were typically different by an average absolute difference of roughly 15-20%, with decreased statistical significance, than those estimated by a single-axis model. The multi-axis model exhibited an increase in overall fit error of roughly 1-5% for the linear regression estimates with respect to the single-axis model, when applied to flight data designed for each, respectively.

Ratnayake, Nalin A.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Global-Scale Comparison of Passive (SMOS) and Active (ASCAT) Satellite Based Microwave Soil Moisture Retrievals with Soil Moisture Simulations (MERRA-Land)

Global surface soil moisture (SSM) datasets are being produced based on active and passive microwave satellite observations and simulations from land surface models (LSM). This study investigates the consistency of two global satellite-based SSM datasets based on microwave remote sensing observations from the passive Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS;SMOSL3 version 2.5) and the active Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT; version TUWien- WARP 5.5) with respect to LSM SSM from the MERRA-Land data product. The relationship between the global-scale SSM products was studied during the 2010-2012 period using (1) a time series statistics (considering both original SSM data and anomalies), (2) a space-time analysis using Hovmoller diagrams, and (3) a triple collocation error model. The SMOSL3 and ASCAT retrievals are consistent with the temporal dynamics of modeled SSM (correlation R (is) greater than 0.70 for original SSM) in the transition zones between wet and dry climates, including the Sahel, the Indian subcontinent, the Great Plains of North America, eastern Australia, and southeastern Brazil. Over relatively dense vegetation covers, a better consistency with MERRA-Land was obtained with ASCAT than with SMOSL3. However, it was found that ASCAT retrievals exhibit negative correlation versus MERRA-Land in some arid regions (e.g., the Sahara and the Arabian Peninsula). In terms of anomalies, SMOSL3 better captures the short term SSM variability of the reference dataset (MERRA-Land) than ASCAT over regions with limited radio frequency interference (RFI) effects (e.g., North America, South America, and Australia). The seasonal and latitudinal variations of SSM are relatively similar for the three products, although the MERRALand SSM values are generally higher and their seasonal amplitude is much lower than for SMOSL3 and ASCAT. Both SMOSL3 and ASCAT have relatively comparable triple collocation errors with similar spatial error patterns: (i) lowest errors in arid regions (e.g., Sahara and Arabian Peninsula), due to the very low natural variability of soil moisture in these areas, and Central America, and (ii) highest errors over most of the vegetated regions (e.g., northern Australia, India, central Asia, and South America). However, the ASCAT SSM product is prone to larger random errors in some regions (e.g., north-western Africa, Iran, and southern South Africa). Vegetation density was found to be a key factor to interpret the consistency with MERRA-Land between the two remotely sensed products (SMOSL3 and ASCAT) which provides complementary information on SSM. This study shows that both SMOS and ASCAT have thus a potential for data fusion into long-term data records.

ASCAT↗

NASA NTRS2013

Analysis of Runway Incursion Data

A statistical analysis of runway incursion (RI) events was conducted to ascertain relevance to the top ten challenges of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Aviation Safety Program (AvSP). The information contained in the RI database was found to contain data that may be relevant to several of the AvSP top ten challenges. When combined with other data from the FAA documenting air traffic volume from calendar year 2000 through 2011, the structure of a predictive model emerges that can be used to forecast the frequency of RI events at various airports for various classes of aircraft and under various environmental conditions.

Runway incursions↗

NASA NTRS2013

TPSAS-NF1676L-17064-DND

Runway incursions↗

NASA NTRS2021

Validation of Satellite-Based Precipitation Products from TRMM to GPM

The global precipitation measurement mission (GPM) has been in operation for seven years and continues to provide a vast quantity of global precipitation data at finer temporospatial resolutions with improved accuracy and coverage. GPM’s signature algorithm, the integrated multisatellite retrievals for GPM (IMERG) is a next-generation of precipitation product expected for wide variety of research and operational applications. This study evaluates the latest version (V06B) of IMERG and its predecessor, the tropical rainfall measuring mission (TRMM) multisatellite precipitation (TMPA) 3B42 (V7) using ground-based and gauge-corrected multiradar multisensor system (MRMS) precipitation products over the conterminous United States (CONUS). The spatial distributions of all products are analyzed. The error characteristics are further examined for 3B42 and IMERG in winter and summer by an error decomposition approach, which partitions total bias into hit bias, biases due to missed precipitation and false precipitation. The volumetric and categorical statistical metrics are used to quantitatively evaluate the performance of the two satellite-based products. All products show a similar precipitation climatology with some regional differences. The two satellite-based products perform better in the eastern CONUS than in the mountainous Western CONUS. The evaluation demonstrates the clear improvement in IMERG precipitation product in comparison with its predecessor 3B42, especially in reducing missed precipitation in winter and summer, and hit bias in winter, resulting in better performance in capturing lighter and heavier precipitation.

MRMS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Helium production prediction in HTR fuel using Monte Carlo MCB system - 18713

The integrated burnup calculation code MCB deals with the complexity of burnup process, which occurs in HTR and requires application of an integrated calculation system with consideration of spatial effects of full heterogeneous reactor model with continuous energy representation of cross section and the thermo-hydraulic coupling. MCB automatically calculates helium production in all possible reaction or decay channels. The methodology of He calculation in HTR using MCB is described. It includes transmutation trajectories analysis in few batch reloading scenarios, which allows us for integrated analysis of helium production sources. The result of performed analysis is presented showing the sources of strong contribution to the helium production rate. Statistical fluctuation effects on Monte Carlo modeling of nuclear reactors as well as the uncertainty assessment are carried out, which includes the error propagation in the depletion calculations. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2015

SU-E-T-483: In Vivo Dosimetry of Conventional and Rotational Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy Using Integral Quality Monitor (IQM)

Purpose: To investigate the accuracy, sensitivity and constancy of integral quality monitor (IQM), a new system for in vivo dosimetry of conventional intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) or rotational volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) Methods: A beta-version IQM system was commissioned on an Elekta Infinity LINAC equipped with 160-MLCs Agility head. The stationary and rotational dosimetric constancy of IQM was evaluated, using five-field IMRT and single-or double-arc VMAT plans for prostate and head-and-neck (H&N) patients. The plans were delivered three times over three days to assess the constancy of IQM response. Picket fence (PF) fields were used to evaluate the sensitivity of detecting MLC leaf errors. A single leaf offset was intentionally introduced during delivery of various PF fields with segment apertures of 3×1, 5×1, 10×1, and 24×1cm2. Both 2mm and 5mm decrease in the field width were used. Results: Repeated IQM measurements of prostate and H&N IMRT deliveries showed 0.4 and 0.5% average standard deviation (SD) for segment-by-segment comparison and 0.1 and 0.2% for cumulative comparison. The corresponding SDs for VMAT deliveries were 6.5, 9.4% and 0.7, 1.3%, respectively. Statistical analysis indicates that the dosimetric differences detected by IQM were significant (p < 0.05) in all PF test deliveries. The largest average IQM signal response of a 2 mm leaf error was found to be 2.1% and 5.1% by a 5mm leaf error for 3×1 cm2 field size. The same error in 24×1 cm2 generates a 0.7% and 1.4% difference in the signal. Conclusion: IQM provides an effective means for real-time dosimetric verification of IMRT/ VMAT treatment delivery. For VMAT delivery, the cumulative dosimetry of IQM needs to be used in clinical practice.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

WE-H-BRC-08: Examining Credentialing Criteria and Poor Performance Indicators for IROC Houston’s Anthropomorphic Head and Neck Phantom

Purpose: To analyze the most recent results of IROC Houston’s anthropomorphic H&N phantom to determine the nature of failing irradiations and the feasibility of altering pass/fail credentialing criteria. Methods: IROC Houston’s H&N phantom, used for IMRT credentialing for NCI-sponsored clinical trials, requires that an institution’s treatment plan must agree with measurement within 7% (TLD doses) and ≥85% pixels must pass 7%/4 mm gamma analysis. 156 phantom irradiations (November 2014 – October 2015) were re-evaluated using tighter criteria: 1) 5% TLD and 5%/4 mm, 2) 5% TLD and 5%/3 mm, 3) 4% TLD and 4%/4 mm, and 4) 3% TLD and 3%/3 mm. Failure/poor performance rates were evaluated with respect to individual film and TLD performance by location in the phantom. Overall poor phantom results were characterized qualitatively as systematic (dosimetric) errors, setup errors/positional shifts, global but non-systematic errors, and errors affecting only a local region. Results: The pass rate for these phantoms using current criteria is 90%. Substituting criteria 1-4 reduces the overall pass rate to 77%, 70%, 63%, and 37%, respectively. Statistical analyses indicated the probability of noise-induced TLD failure at the 5% criterion was <0.5%. Using criteria 1, TLD results were most often the cause of failure (86% failed TLD while 61% failed film), with most failures identified in the primary PTV (77% cases). Other criteria posed similar results. Irradiations that failed from film only were overwhelmingly associated with phantom shifts/setup errors (≥80% cases). Results failing criteria 1 were primarily diagnosed as systematic: 58% of cases. 11% were setup/positioning errors, 8% were global non-systematic errors, and 22% were local errors. Conclusion: This study demonstrates that 5% TLD and 5%/4 mm gamma criteria may be both practically and theoretically achievable. Further work is necessary to diagnose and resolve dosimetric inaccuracy in these trials, particularly for systematic dose errors. This work is funded by NCI Grant CA180803.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Improving multiwell petrophysical interpretation from well logs via machine learning and statistical models

Well-log interpretation estimates in situ rock properties along well trajectory, such as porosity, water saturation, and permeability, to support reserve-volume estimation, production forecasts, and decision making in reservoir development. However, due to measurement errors, variability of well logs caused by multiple measurement vendors, different borehole tools, and nonuniform drilling/borehole conditions, estimations of rock properties with original well logs without proper preprocessing may not be accurate, especially in the context of multiwell estimation. Well-log normalization techniques such as two-point scaling and mean-variance normalization are commonly used to improve the robustness of multiwell rock-property estimation. However, these techniques do not consider the correlation between well logs and require subjective knowledge for their effective implementation. To reduce uncertainties and processing time associated with multiwell rock-property estimation from well logs, we develop discriminative adversarial (DA) and linear constraint models for well-log normalization and rock-property estimation. The DA neural network model developed for well-log normalization and interpretation can perform linear and nonlinear well-log normalization while considering the joint distribution of each well log and rock properties. However, the linear constraint model uses an ensemble of predictions from linear models to constrain well-log normalization and rock-property estimation. We also develop a divergence-based type well identification method to select type (training) wells for a test well based on the statistical similarity of associated well-log distributions instead of the interwell distance. We apply the DA model to perform well-log normalization and prediction of permeability for the Seminole San Andres Unit carbonate reservoir. Compared with the permeability predicted with the classical machine learning model without well-log normalization and models with two-point scaling normalization, the DA model yields the most accurate permeability prediction by decreasing the mean-squared error of permeability prediction by 20%–50%.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

NASA NTRS2000

A simulator for evaluating methods for the detection of lesion-deficit associations

Although much has been learned about the functional organization of the human brain through lesion-deficit analysis, the variety of statistical and image-processing methods developed for this purpose precludes a closed-form analysis of the statistical power of these systems. Therefore, we developed a lesion-deficit simulator (LDS), which generates artificial subjects, each of which consists of a set of functional deficits, and a brain image with lesions; the deficits and lesions conform to predefined distributions. We used probability distributions to model the number, sizes, and spatial distribution of lesions, to model the structure-function associations, and to model registration error. We used the LDS to evaluate, as examples, the effects of the complexities and strengths of lesion-deficit associations, and of registration error, on the power of lesion-deficit analysis. We measured the numbers of recovered associations from these simulated data, as a function of the number of subjects analyzed, the strengths and number of associations in the statistical model, the number of structures associated with a particular function, and the prior probabilities of structures being abnormal. The number of subjects required to recover the simulated lesion-deficit associations was found to have an inverse relationship to the strength of associations, and to the smallest probability in the structure-function model. The number of structures associated with a particular function (i.e., the complexity of associations) had a much greater effect on the performance of the analysis method than did the total number of associations. We also found that registration error of 5 mm or less reduces the number of associations discovered by approximately 13% compared to perfect registration. The LDS provides a flexible framework for evaluating many aspects of lesion-deficit analysis.

NASA Program Biomedical Research and Countermeasur↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Assessing Risk Due to Small Sample Size in Probability of Detection Analysis Using Tolerance Intervals

Small sample size (e.g.6-30) poses risk in results of probability of detection (POD) analysis using tolerance intervals. This method is also called as the limited sample or LS POD. The analysis is performed either during NDE procedure qualification or for assessment of reliability of an NDE procedure. The risk is primarily due to sampling error. Smaller samples are not likely to be random to the population or representative of the population. The small samples are likely to be biased. Biased samples have smaller standard deviation compared to the population. POD analysis with small biased sample can lead to overestimation of POD. Many sampling schemes are available in statistics to mitigate sampling risk. Primary objective of POD analysis is to determine a decision threshold from signal response measurements of a sample such that it is less than or equal to population decision threshold for 90% POD. Sampling error implies that this NDE reliability condition is violated. One of sampling types is called a representative sample. Representative samples reduce variance in POD estimates but also reduce magnitude of the error. Sampling sensitivity analysis for some sampling types is performed here using repetitive random sampling or Monte Carlo method. Six sampling types are considered for comparison. Some of the sampling types are similar to drawing a representative sample. LS POD model assumes random sampling. Therefore, random sampling is used as a basis for comparison with each sampling type. The sampling types used in the analysis are, A. Nominal and worst-case sampling, B. Worst-case sampling, C. Nominal case sampling, D. Random sampling, E. Random target, and sub-target sampling. F. Nominal target and sub-target sampling. Results of Monte Carlo simulation indicate that type F sampling can mitigate sampling risk and is also more practical to implement. Type A sampling may also mitigate the sampling risk, but it may be less practical to implement.

Ajay M Koshti↗

DOE OSTI2016

Validation of a pretreatment delivery quality assurance method for the CyberKnife Synchrony system

Purpose: To evaluate the geometric and dosimetric accuracies of the CyberKnife Synchrony respiratory tracking system (RTS) and to validate a method for pretreatment patient-specific delivery quality assurance (DQA). Methods: An EasyCube phantom was mounted on the ExacTrac gating phantom, which can move along the superior–inferior (SI) axis of a patient to simulate a moving target. The authors compared dynamic and static measurements. For each case, a Gafchromic EBT3 film was positioned between two slabs of the EasyCube, while a PinPoint ionization chamber was placed in the appropriate space. There were three steps to their evaluation: (1) the field size, the penumbra, and the symmetry of six secondary collimators were measured along the two main orthogonal axes. Dynamic measurements with deliberately simulated errors were also taken. (2) The delivered dose distributions (from step 1) were compared with the planned ones, using the gamma analysis method. The local gamma passing rates were evaluated using three acceptance criteria: 3% local dose difference (LDD)/3 mm, 2%LDD/2 mm, and 3%LDD/1 mm. (3) The DQA plans for six clinical patients were irradiated in different dynamic conditions, to give a total of 19 cases. The measured and planned dose distributions were evaluated with the same gamma-index criteria used in step 2 and the measured chamber doses were compared with the planned mean doses in the sensitive volume of the chamber. Results: (1) A very slight enlargement of the field size and of the penumbra was observed in the SI direction (on average <1 mm), in line with the overall average CyberKnife system error for tracking treatments. (2) Comparison between the planned and the correctly delivered dose distributions confirmed the dosimetric accuracy of the RTS for simple plans. The multicriteria gamma analysis was able to detect the simulated errors, proving the robustness of their method of analysis. (3) All of the DQA clinical plans passed the tests, both in static and dynamic conditions. No statistically significant differences were found between static and dynamic cases, confirming the high degree of accuracy of the Synchrony RTS. Conclusions: The presented methods and measurements verified the mechanical and dosimetric accuracy of the Synchrony RTS. Their method confirms the fact that the RTS, if used properly, is able to treat a moving target with great precision. By combining PinPoint ion chamber, EBT3 films, and gamma evaluation of dose distributions, their DQA method robustly validated the effectiveness of CyberKnife and Synchrony system.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Hierarchical Modeling and Statistical Calibration for Photometric Redshifts

The cosmological exploitation of modern photometric galaxy surveys requires both accurate (unbiased) and precise (narrow) redshift probability distributions derived from broadband photometry. Existing methodologies do not meet these requirements. Standard template fitting delivers interpretable models and errors, but lacks the flexibility to learn inaccuracies in the observed photometry or spectral templates. Machine learning addresses those issues, but requires representative training data, and the resulting models and uncertainties cannot be interpreted in the context of a physical model or outside of the training data. We present a hierarchical modeling approach simultaneously addressing the issues of flexibility, interpretability, and generalization. It combines template fitting with flexible (machine-learning-like) models to correct the spectral templates, model their redshift distributions, and recalibrate the photometric observations. By optimizing the full posterior distribution of the model and solving for its (thousands of) parameters, one can perform a global statistical calibration of the data and the spectral energy distribution (SED) model. We apply this approach to the public Dark Energy Survey Science Verification data and show that it provides more accurate and compact redshift posterior distributions than existing methods, as well as insights into residual photometric and SED systematics. Here, the model is causal and makes predictions for future data (e.g., additional photometric bandpasses), and its internal parameters and components are interpretable. This approach does not formally require the training data to be complete or representative; in principle, it can even work in regimes in which few or no spectroscopic redshifts are available.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2014

NASA Tech Briefs, June 2014

Topics include: Real-Time Minimization of Tracking Error for Aircraft Systems; Detecting an Extreme Minority Class in Hyperspectral Data Using Machine Learning; KSC Spaceport Weather Data Archive; Visualizing Acquisition, Processing, and Network Statistics Through Database Queries; Simulating Data Flow via Multiple Secure Connections; Systems and Services for Near-Real-Time Web Access to NPP Data; CCSDS Telemetry Decoder VHDL Core; Thermal Response of a High-Power Switch to Short Pulses; Solar Panel and System Design to Reduce Heating and Optimize Corridors for Lower-Risk Planetary Aerobraking; Low-Cost, Very Large Diamond-Turned Metal Mirror; Very-High-Load-Capacity Air Bearing Spindle for Large Diamond Turning Machines; Elevated-Temperature, Highly Emissive Coating for Energy Dissipation of Large Surfaces; Catalyst for Treatment and Control of Post-Combustion Emissions; Thermally Activated Crack Healing Mechanism for Metallic Materials; Subsurface Imaging of Nanocomposites; Self-Healing Glass Sealants for Solid Oxide Fuel Cells and Electrolyzer Cells; Micromachined Thermopile Arrays with Novel Thermo - electric Materials; Low-Cost, High-Performance MMOD Shielding; Head-Mounted Display Latency Measurement Rig; Workspace-Safe Operation of a Force- or Impedance-Controlled Robot; Cryogenic Mixing Pump with No Moving Parts; Seal Design Feature for Redundancy Verification; Dexterous Humanoid Robot; Tethered Vehicle Control and Tracking System; Lunar Organic Waste Reformer; Digital Laser Frequency Stabilization via Cavity Locking Employing Low-Frequency Direct Modulation; Deep UV Discharge Lamps in Capillary Quartz Tubes with Light Output Coupled to an Optical Fiber; Speech Acquisition and Automatic Speech Recognition for Integrated Spacesuit Audio Systems, Version II; Advanced Sensor Technology for Algal Biotechnology; High-Speed Spectral Mapper; "Ascent - Commemorating Shuttle" - A NASA Film and Multimedia Project DVD; High-Pressure, Reduced-Kinetics Mechanism for N-Hexadecane Oxidation; Method of Error Floor Mitigation in Low-Density Parity-Check Codes; X-Ray Flaw Size Parameter for POD Studies; Large Eddy Simulation Composition Equations for Two-Phase Fully Multicomponent Turbulent Flows; Scheduling Targeted and Mapping Observations with State, Resource, and Timing Constraints;

Source record↗

DOE OSTI2022

Coupling localized Noah-MP-Crop model with the WRF model improved dynamic crop growth simulation across Northeast China

Croplands play a critical role in regulating the energy and moisture exchanges between the land surface and atmosphere. However, the interactions between cropland and climate are usually poorly represented due to a lack of detailed representation in crop types and field management. Here, we coupled the Noah-MP-Crop model with the state-of-the-art Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to explore and evaluate the crop growth dynamics in response to climate variations across Northeast China. The default parameters of the crop model were not exactly suitable for the agricultural ecosystems in Northeast China. The detailed cropland distribution, and crop phenology parameters including growing degree days (GDD) and planting (harvesting) date were first created using multi-source remote sensing products and reanalysis data, and was then successfully used to simulate the growth and yield for corn and soybean and associated energy exchanges. We also optimized and calibrated other crop parameters using the time-series of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface products. The modified crop model substantially improved the simulation of crop growth, plant physiology, and biomass accumulation for both corn and soybean. Coupling the localized dynamic crop model into the WRF led to considerable decreases in the simulated mean-absolute-errors (MAEs) and biases of the leaf area index, evapotranspiration, and gross primary production compared with the MODIS observed values. Compared with the statistical yield from each province, the modified crop model underestimated the corn yield from 11.1% to 48.6%, whereas overestimated the soybean yield from 16.5% to 162.6%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Microscopic theory of onset of decaging and bond-breaking activated dynamics in ultradense fluids with strong short-range attractions

We theoretically study thermally activated “in cage” elementary dynamical processes that precede full structural relaxation in ultra-dense particle liquids interacting via strong short range attractive forces. The analysis is based on a microscopic theory formulated at the particle trajectory level built on the dynamic free energy concept and an explicit treatment of how attractive forces control the formation and lifetime of physical bonds. Mean time scales for bond breaking, the early stage of cage escape, and non-Fickian displacement by a fixed amount are analyzed in the repulsive glass, bonded repulsive (attractive) glass, fluid, and dense gel regimes. The theory predicts a strong length-scale-dependent growth of these time scales with attractive force strength at fixed packing fraction, a much weaker slowing down with density at fixed attraction strength, and a strong decoupling of the shorter bond breaking time with the other two time scales that are controlled mainly by perturbed steric caging. All results are in good accord with simulations, and additional testable predictions are made. In conclusion, the classic statistical mechanical projection approximation of replacing all bare attractive and repulsive forces with a single effective force determined by pair structure incurs major errors for describing processes associated with thermally activated escape from transiently localized states.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗