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At least 1,765 records · Page 98

Cloud cover estimation: Use of GOES imagery in development of cloud cover data base for insolation assessment

The potential of using digital satellite data to establish a cloud cover data base for the United States, one that would provide detailed information on the temporal and spatial variability of cloud development are studied. Key elements include: (1) interfacing GOES data from the University of Wisconsin Meteorological Data Facility with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory's VICAR image processing system and IBIS geographic information system; (2) creation of a registered multitemporal GOES data base; (3) development of a simple normalization model to compensate for sun angle; (4) creation of a variable size georeference grid that provides detailed cloud information in selected areas and summarized information in other areas; and (5) development of a cloud/shadow model which details the percentage of each grid cell that is cloud and shadow covered, and the percentage of cloud or shadow opacity. In addition, comparison of model calculations of insolation with measured values at selected test sites was accomplished, as well as development of preliminary requirements for a large scale data base of cloud cover statistics.

Huning, J. R.↗

PARAGON: A Systematic, Integrated Approach to Aerosol Observation and Modeling

Aerosols are generated and transformed by myriad processes operating across many spatial and temporal scales. Evaluation of climate models and their sensitivity to changes, such as in greenhouse gas abundances, requires quantifying natural and anthropogenic aerosol forcings and accounting for other critical factors, such as cloud feedbacks. High accuracy is required to provide sufficient sensitivity to perturbations, separate anthropogenic from natural influences, and develop confidence in inputs used to support policy decisions. Although many relevant data sources exist, the aerosol research community does not currently have the means to combine these diverse inputs into an integrated data set for maximum scientific benefit. Bridging observational gaps, adapting to evolving measurements, and establishing rigorous protocols for evaluating models are necessary, while simultaneously maintaining consistent, well understood accuracies. The Progressive Aerosol Retrieval and Assimilation Global Observing Network (PARAGON) concept represents a systematic, integrated approach to global aerosol Characterization, bringing together modern measurement and modeling techniques, geospatial statistics methodologies, and high-performance information technologies to provide the machinery necessary for achieving a comprehensive understanding of how aerosol physical, chemical, and radiative processes impact the Earth system. We outline a framework for integrating and interpreting observations and models and establishing an accurate, consistent and cohesive long-term data record.

PARAGON↗

A Terrestrial Validation of ICESat Elevation Measurements and Implications for Global Reanalyses

The primary goal of NASA's Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) mission was to detect centimeter-level changes in global ice sheet elevations at the spatial scale of individual ice streams. Confidence in detecting these small signals requires careful validation over time to characterize the uncertainty and stability of measured elevations. A common validation approach compares altimeter elevations to an independently characterized and stable reference surface. Using a digital elevation model (DEM) from geodetic surveys of one such surface, the salar de Uyuni in Bolivia, we show that ICESat elevations at this location have a 0.0-centimeter bias relative to the WGS84 ellipsoid, 4.0-centimeter (1-sigma) uncertainty overall, and 1.8-centimeter uncertainty under ideal conditions over short (50 kilometer) profiles. We observe no elevation bias between ascending and descending orbits, but we do find that elevations measured immediately after transitions from low to high surface albedo may be negatively biased. Previous studies have reported intercampaign biases (ICBs) between various ICESat observation campaigns, but we find no statistically significant ICBs or ICB trends in our data. We do find a previously unreported 3.1-centimeter bias between ICESat's Laser 2 and Laser 3, and we find even larger interlaser biases in reanalyzed data from other studies. For an altimeter with an exact repeat orbit like ICESat, we also demonstrate that validation results with respect to averaged elevation profiles along a single ground track are comparable to results obtained using reference elevations from an in situ survey.

Laser Ranging↗

Representing the Sub-Grid Heterogeneity of Surface Precipitation in A General Circulation Model

Precipitation variability on spatial scales smaller than a typical general circulation model (GCM) grid box is often neglected, with the grid-mean precipitation rate being applied uniformly to underlying surface tiles. This reduces the extrema seen by the surface, with corresponding reductions in surface runoff and altered land-atmosphere fluxes. Here we present a novel approach to stochastically distribute precipitation across sub-grid surface tiles within a GCM. Based on 4 km Stage IV precipitation data, the scheme parameterizes the dry area fraction as a function of grid mean precipitation rate, and defines the relative distribution of intensities across non-dry surface tiles. To incorporate memory and mimic the persistence of precipitating storms, the relative intensity assigned to each sub-grid tile is determined by an autoregressive process. Using single column experiments, the scheme is shown to reproduce observed precipitation statistics at the scale of model surface tiles. We also document impacts on surface hydrology and energy partitioning, with notable increases in precipitation runoff, surface temperature variance, and the Bowen ratio.

GCM↗

Cloud Macroscopic Organization: Order Emerging from Randomness

Clouds play a central role in many aspects of the climate system and their forms and shapes are remarkably diverse. Appropriate representation of clouds in climate models is a major challenge because cloud processes span at least eight orders of magnitude in spatial scales. Here we show that there exists order in cloud size distribution of low-level clouds, and that it follows a power-law distribution with exponent gamma close to 2. gamma is insensitive to yearly variations in environmental conditions, but has regional variations and land-ocean contrasts. More importantly, we demonstrate this self-organizing behavior of clouds emerges naturally from a complex network model with simple, physical organizing principles: random clumping and merging. We also demonstrate symmetry between clear and cloudy skies in terms of macroscopic organization because of similar fundamental underlying organizing principles. The order in the apparently complex cloud-clear field thus has its root in random local interactions. Studying cloud organization with complex network models is an attractive new approach that has wide applications in climate science. We also propose a concept of cloud statistic mechanics approach. This approach is fully complementary to deterministic models, and the two approaches provide a powerful framework to meet the challenge of representing clouds in our climate models when working in tandem.

Yuan, Tianle↗

Simulated wildfire burned area over the CONUS during 2001-2020

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth System Models (ESMs). Alternatively, machine learning (ML) based fire models, which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ML4Fire-XGB) that integrates a pretrained eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). A Fortran-C-Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001-2020, the ML4Fire-XGB model outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the ML4Fire-XGB well captures the responses of the burned area to rising temperatures. The ML4Fire-XGB model has proved to be a new tool for studying vegetation-fire interactions, and more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate-fire feedback, working as an active component in E3SM.

Liu, Ye↗

DSGAN

This study develops a neural network-based approach for emulating high-resolution modeled precipitation data with comparable statistical properties but at greatly reduced computational cost. The key idea is to use combination of low-and high- resolution simulations to train a neural network to map from the former to the latter. Specifically, we define two types of CNNs, one that stacks variables directly and one that encodes each variable before stacking, and we train each CNN type both with a conventional loss function, such as mean square error (MSE), and with a conditional generative adversarial network (CGAN), for a total of four CNN variants. We compare the four new CNN-derived high-resolution precipitation results with precipitation generated from original high resolution simulations, a bilinear interpolater and the state-of-the-art CNN-based super-resolution (SR) technique. Results show that the SR technique produces results similar to those of the bilinear interpolator with smoother spatial and temporal distributions and smaller data variabilities and extremes than the original high resolution simulations. While the new CNNs trained by MSE generate better results over some regions than the interpolator and SR technique do, their predictions are still not as close as the original high resolution simulations. The CNNs trained by CGAN generate more realistic and physically reasonable results, better capturing not only data variability in time and space but also extremes such as intense and long-lasting storms. The new proposed CNN-based downscaling approach can downscale precipitation from 50~km to 12~km in 14~min for 30~years

LIU, ZHENGCHUN↗

Covariance analyses of satellite-derived mesoscale wind fields

Statistical structure functions have been computed independently for nine satellite-derived mesoscale wind fields that were obtained on two different days. Small cumulus clouds were tracked at 5 min intervals, but since these clouds occurred primarily in the warm sectors of midlatitude cyclones the results cannot be considered representative of the circulations within cyclones in general. The field structure varied considerably with time and was especially affected if mesoscale features were observed. The wind fields on the 2 days studied were highly anisotropic with large gradients in structure occurring approximately normal to the mean flow. Structure function calculations for the combined set of satellite winds were used to estimate random error present in the fields. It is concluded for these data that the random error in vector winds derived from cumulus cloud tracking using high-frequency satellite data is less than 1.75 m/s. Spatial correlation functions were also computed for the nine data sets. Normalized correlation functions were considerably different for u and v components and decreased rapidly as data point separation increased for both components. The correlation functions for transverse and longitudinal components decreased less rapidly as data point separation increased.

Maddox, R. A.↗

The Intensity Distribution of Faint Gamma-Ray Bursts Detected with BATSE

We have recently completed a search of six years of archival Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) data for gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) that were too faint to activate the real-time burst detection system running on board the spacecraft. These 'nontriggered' bursts can be combined with the 'triggered' bursts detected on board to produce a GRB intensity distribution that reaches peak fluxes a factor of approximately two lower than could be studied previously. The value of the statistic (in Euclidean space) for the bursts we detect is 0.177 +/- 0.006. This surprisingly low value is obtained because we detected very few bursts on the 4.096 s and 8.192 s timescales (where most bursts have their highest signal-to-noise ratio) that were not already detected on the 1.024 s timescale. If allowance is made for a power-law distribution of intrinsic peak luminosities, the extended peak flux distribution is consistent with models in which the redshift distribution of the gamma-ray burst rate approximately traces the star formation history of the universe. We argue that this class of models is preferred over those in which the burst rate is independent of redshift. We use the peak flux distribution to derive a limit of 10% (99% confidence) on the fraction of the total burst rate that could be contributed by a spatially homogeneous (in Euclidean space) subpopulation of burst sources, such as type Ib/c supernovae. These results lend support to the conclusions of previous studies predicting that relatively few faint 'classical' GRBs will be found below the BATSE onboard detection threshold.

Kommers, Jefferson M.↗

Performance of borated scintillator screens for high-resolution neutron imaging

The most commonly used screens for neutron imaging consist of 6 LiF + ZnS. This type of screen yields the highest light output per detected neutron. For high resolution, gadolinium oxysulfide (GOS, Gadox) screens are employed, which have a much higher detection efficiency, but a light output so much lower than LiF + ZnS that measurements are often limited by photon statistics. Historically, screens using boron as a neutron-sensitive material have not been very successful. However, a new preparation method was introduced recently that produces light output higher than Gadox with detection efficiency greater than LiF + ZnS. Measurements of these new borated screens were performed at the NeXT facility at ILL, Grenoble, in comparison to a high resolution Gadox screen.

10B↗

Thermal transport exceeding bulk heat conduction due to nonthermal micro/nanoscale phonon populations

While classical size effects usually lead to a reduced effective thermal conductivity, we report here that nonthermal phonon populations produced by a micro/nanoscale heat source can lead to enhanced heat conduction, exceeding the prediction from Fourier's law. We study nondiffusive thermal transport by phonons at small distances within the framework of the Boltzmann transport equation (BTE) and demonstrate that the transport is significantly affected by the distribution of phonons emitted by the source. We discuss analytical solutions of the steady-state BTE for a source with a sinusoidal spatial profile, as well as for a three-dimensional Gaussian “hot spot,” and provide numerical results for single crystal silicon at room temperature. If a micro/nanoscale heat source produces a thermal phonon distribution, it gets hotter than that predicted by the heat diffusion equation; however, if the source predominantly produces low-frequency acoustic phonons with long mean free paths, it may get significantly cooler than that predicted by the heat equation, yielding an enhanced heat transport beyond bulk heat conduction.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Grid-based diffusion Monte Carlo for fermions without the fixed-node approximation

A diffusion Monte Carlo algorithm is introduced that can determine the correct nodal structure of the wave function of a few-fermion system and its ground-state energy without an uncontrolled bias. This is achieved by confining signed random walkers to the points of a uniform infinite spatial grid, allowing them to meet and annihilate one another to establish the nodal structure without the fixed-node approximation. An imaginary-time propagator is derived rigorously from a discretized Hamiltonian, governing a non-Gaussian, sign-flipping, branching, and mutually annihilating random walk of particles. The accuracy of the resulting stochastic representations of a fermion wave function is limited only by the grid and imaginary-time resolutions and can be improved in a controlled manner. Here, the method is tested for a series of model problems including fermions in a harmonic trap as well as the He atom in its singlet or triplet ground state. For the latter case, the energies approach from above with increasing grid resolution and converge within 0.015 E h of the exact basis-set-limit value for the grid spacing of 0.08 a.u. with a statistical uncertainty of 10 –5 E h without an importance sampling or Jastrow factor.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Improving North American Wildfire Prediction by Integrating a Machine-Learning Fire Model in a Land Surface Model

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth System Models (ESMs). Alternatively, machine learning (ML) based fire models, which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ML4Fire-XGB) that integrates a pretrained eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM) version 2.1. A Fortran-C-Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001-2020, the ML4Fire-XGB model outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the ML4Fire-XGB well captures the responses of the burned area to rising temperatures. The ML4Fire-XGB model has proved to be a new tool for studying vegetation-fire interactions, and more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate-fire feedback, working as an active component in E3SM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

LDEF's map experiment foil perforations yield hypervelocity impact penetration parameters

The space exposure of LDEF for 5.75 years, forming a host target in low earth orbit (LEO) orbit to a wide distribution of hypervelocity particulates of varying dimensions and different impact velocities, has yielded a multiplicity of impact features. Although the projectile parameters are generally unknown and, in fact not identical for any two impacts on a target, the great number of impacts provides statistically meaningful basis for the valid comparison of the response of different targets. Given sufficient impacts for example, a comparison of impact features (even without knowledge of the project parameters) is possible between: (1) differing material types (for the same incident projectile distribution); (2) differing target configurations (e.g., thick and thin targets for the same material projectiles; and (3) different velocities (using LDEF's different faces). A comparison between different materials is presented for infinite targets of aluminum, Teflon, and brass in the same pointing direction; the maximum finite-target penetration (ballistic limit) is also compared to that of the penetration of similar materials comprising of a semi-infinite target. For comparison of impacts on similar materials at different velocities, use is made of the pointing direction relative to LDEF's orbital motion. First, however, care must be exercised to separate the effect of spatial flux anisotropies from those resulting from the spacecraft velocity through a geocentrically referenced dust distribution. Data comprising thick and thin target impacts, impacts on different materials, and in different pointing directions is presented; hypervelocity impact parameters are derived. Results are also shown for flux modeling codes developed to decode the relative fluxes of Earth orbital and unbound interplanetary components intercepting LDEF. Modeling shows the west and space pointing faces are dominated by interplanetary particles and yields a mean velocity of 23.5 km/s at LDEF, corresponding to a V(infinity) Earth approach velocity = 20.9 km/s. Normally resolved average impact velocities on LDEF's cardinal point faces are shown. As 'excess' flux on the east, north, and south faces is observed, compatible with an Earth orbital component below some 5 microns in particle diameter.

Mcdonnell, J. A. M.↗

Situational Lightning Climatologies

Research has revealed distinct spatial and temporal distributions of lightning occurrence that are strongly influenced by large-scale atmospheric flow regimes. It was believed there were two flow systems, but it has been discovered that actually there are seven distinct flow regimes. The Applied Meteorology Unit (AMU) has recalculated the lightning climatologies for the Shuttle Landing Facility (SLF), and the eight airfields in the National Weather Service in Melbourne (NWS MLB) County Warning Area (CWA) using individual lightning strike data to improve the accuracy of the climatologies. The software determines the location of each CG lightning strike with 5-, 10-, 20-, and 30-nmi (.9.3-, 18.5-, 37-, 55.6-km) radii from each airfield. Each CG lightning strike is binned at 1-, 3-, and 6-hour intervals at each specified radius. The software merges the CG lightning strike time intervals and distance with each wind flow regime and creates probability statistics for each time interval, radii, and flow regime, and stratifies them by month and warm season. The AMU also updated the graphical user interface (GUI) with the new data.

Bauman, William↗

High-spatial-resolution passive microwave sounding systems

The principal contributions of this combined theoretical and experimental effort were to advance and demonstrate new and more accurate techniques for sounding atmospheric temperature, humidity, and precipitation profiles at millimeter wavelengths, and to improve the scientific basis for such soundings. Some of these techniques are being incorporated in both research and operational systems. Specific results include: (1) development of the MIT Microwave Temperature Sounder (MTS), a 118-GHz eight-channel imaging spectrometer plus a switched-frequency spectrometer near 53 GHz, for use on the NASA ER-2 high-altitude aircraft, (2) conduct of ER-2 MTS missions in multiple seasons and locations in combination with other instruments, mapping with unprecedented approximately 2-km lateral resolution atmospheric temperature and precipitation profiles, atmospheric transmittances (at both zenith and nadir), frontal systems, and hurricanes, (3) ground based 118-GHz 3-D spectral images of wavelike structure within clouds passing overhead, (4) development and analysis of approaches to ground- and space-based 5-mm wavelength sounding of the upper stratosphere and mesosphere, which supported the planning of improvements to operational weather satellites, (5) development of improved multidimensional and adaptive retrieval methods for atmospheric temperature and humidity profiles, (6) development of combined nonlinear and statistical retrieval techniques for 183-GHz humidity profile retrievals, (7) development of nonlinear statistical retrieval techniques for precipitation cell-top altitudes, and (8) numerical analyses of the impact of remote sensing data on the accuracy of numerical weather predictions; a 68-km gridded model was used to study the spectral properties of error growth.

Staelin, D. H.↗

Role of Chemical Disorder in High Temperature Dislocation Glide in Refractory Multi-principal Element Alloys

Refractory multi-principal element alloys (RMPEAs) combine a chemically disordered lattice with a structurally ordered, single‐phase body‐centered cubic (bcc) crystal structure. Chemical fluctuations in these alloys give rise to significant energy barriers that impede dislocation motion. In this study, we use phase field dislocation dynamics to examine how spatial temperature fluctuations compete with randomness in energy barriers to affect the motion of long screw dislocations in three equi-atomic MoNbTa‐based RMPEAs: MoNbTa, MoNbTaW, and MoNbTaVW. Over a wide range of homologous temperatures (T h ≈ 0–0.6), we determined a screw dislocation ‘flow stress’ as the minimum applied stress to sustain continuous motion over a long excursion distance within a fixed timeframe. All three RMPEAs exhibit temperature dependent flow stress with three characteristic glide regimes: at low homologous temperatures, flow stress drops sharply, and screw glide remains planar and rectilinear; at intermediate homologous temperatures, the flow stress levels off as glide becomes planar but wavy; and at high homologous temperatures, flow stress plateaus as screws exhibit nonplanar, three‐dimensional motion. Glide kinetics and transition temperatures are controlled by the chemically induced fluctuations in the energy landscape. The rectilinear to wavy transition temperature is controlled by statistically weakest local barriers in the glide plane, whereas the wavy to 3D transition temperature is governed by statistically strongest local barriers. At low and intermediate homologous temperatures, the relative spread in energy barriers governs glide behavior by controlling the local kinetics of kink pair formation and kink pinning. At high homologous temperatures, the average barrier height governs the glide behavior by controlling the number of out-of-plane excursions during 3D glide. These findings reveal how random chemical fluctuations determine screw‐driven plasticity in RMPEAs, providing critical insight for the design of high temperature structural alloys.

Defects↗

The Intensity Distribution of Faint Gamma-Ray Bursts Detected with BATSE

We have recently completed a search of 6 years of archival BATSE data for gamma-ray bursts (GRBS) that were too faint to activate the real-time burst detection system running on board the spacecraft. These "nontriggered" bursts can be combined with the "triggered" bursts detected on board to produce a GRB intensity distribution that reaches peak fluxes a factor of approximately 2 lower than could be studied previously. The value of the statistic (in Euclidean space) for the bursts we detect is 0.177 plus or minus 0.006. This surprisingly low value is obtained because we detected very few bursts on the 4.096 s and 8.192 s timescales (where most bursts have their highest signal-to-noise ratio) that were not already detected on the 1.024 s timescale. If allowance is made for a power-law distribution of intrinsic peak luminosities, the extended peak flux distribution is consistent with models in which the redshift distribution of the gamma-ray burst rate approximately traces the star formation history of the universe. We argue that this class of models is preferred over those in which the burst rate is independent of redshift. We use the peak flux distribution to derive a limit of 10% (99% confidence) on the fraction of the total burst rate that could be contributed by a spatially homogeneous (in Euclidean space) subpopulation of burst sources, such as type lb/c supernovae. These results lend support to the conclusions of previous studies predicting that relatively few faint "classical" GRBs will be found below the BATSE onboard detection threshold.

Kommers, Jefferson M.↗