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At least 1,765 records · Page 98

Insights into Methodologies and Operational Details of Resource Adequacy Assessment: A Case Study with Application to a Broader Flexibility Framework

Assessing and maintaining resource adequacy (RA) is a core pillar of power systems. However, recent changes in the physical makeup of these systems and the conditions under which these systems must operate have yielded a renewed interest in the methods, metrics, and assumptions that underpin RA assessments. In this paper, we systematically explore a wide range of RA modeling dimensions, including: the objective function and level of operational detail in the underlying model formulation; the quantity (look-ahead) and quality (accuracy) of data that is available for making operational decisions within those models; and the physical configuration of solar photovoltaics (PV) with battery storage hybrid resources. We apply a set of probabilistic RA tools and production cost modeling tools to a realistic test system based loosely on a future Electric Reliability Council of Texas power system dominated by solar PV resources. Under the assumptions of our system and models, we find that multi-stage probabilistic assessments may provide a more robust evaluation of RA by capturing a wider range of operational and system interactions, but this comes at a computational cost of 1-2 orders of magnitude longer run time depending on the specific configuration. In addition, the information on thermal generator availability impacts RA performance by an order of magnitude more than solar resource forecasts, which is driven by the comparatively larger magnitude of thermal outages than solar forecast errors within our test system. Lastly, the flexibility provided by hybrid and other resources can help reduce system load-shedding event frequencies and enable the system to be more robust to inaccurate forecast information, and alternative hybrid inverter sizes can impact RA levels by 1-2 orders of magnitude. Our results point to the importance of a broader flexibility framework to describe the interaction between (1) flexibility "supply" from both physical resource capabilities and operational constraints considered in the modeling, and (2) flexibility "demand" from forecast errors, thermal generator outages, and other sources of uncertainty, as well as their RA impacts. Results are likely sensitive to the system buildout explored; future work could consider additional system configurations and conditions.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗

The quantitative modelling of human spatial habitability

A theoretical model for evaluating human spatial habitability (HuSH) in the proposed U.S. Space Station is developed. Optimizing the fitness of the space station environment for human occupancy will help reduce environmental stress due to long-term isolation and confinement in its small habitable volume. The development of tools that operationalize the behavioral bases of spatial volume for visual kinesthetic, and social logic considerations is suggested. This report further calls for systematic scientific investigations of how much real and how much perceived volume people need in order to function normally and with minimal stress in space-based settings. The theoretical model presented in this report can be applied to any size or shape interior, at any scale of consideration, for the Space Station as a whole to an individual enclosure or work station. Using as a point of departure the Isovist model developed by Dr. Michael Benedikt of the U. of Texas, the report suggests that spatial habitability can become as amenable to careful assessment as engineering and life support concerns.

Wise, James A.↗

Physics Prospects for a near-term Proton-Proton Collider

Hadron colliders at the energy frontier offer significant discovery potential through precise measurements of Standard Model processes and direct searches for new particles and interactions. A future hadron collider would enhance the exploration of particle physics at the electroweak scale and beyond, potentially uniting the community around a common project. The LHC has already demonstrated precision measurement and new physics search capabilities well beyond its original design goals and the HL-LHC will continue to usher in new advancements. This document highlights the physics potential of an FCC-hh machine to directly follow the HL-LHC. In order to reduce the timeline and costs, the physics impact of lower collider energies, down to $\sim 50$~TeV, is evaluated. Lower centre-of-mass energy could leverage advanced magnet technology to reduce both the cost and time to the next hadron collider. Such a machine offers a breadth of physics potential and would make key advancements in Higgs measurements, direct particle production searches, and high-energy tests of Standard Model processes. Most projected results from such a hadron-hadron collider are superior to or competitive with other proposed accelerator projects and this option offers unparalleled physics breadth. The FCC program should lay out a decision-making process that evaluates in detail options for proceeding directly to a hadron collider, including the possibility of reducing energy targets and staging the magnet installation to spread out the cost profile.

FOS: Physical sciences↗

Single link flexible beam testbed project

This thesis describes the single link flexible beam testbed at the CLaMS laboratory in terms of its hardware, software, and linear model, and presents two controllers, each including a hub angle proportional-derivative (PD) feedback compensator and one augmented by a second static gain full state feedback loop, based upon a synthesized strictly positive real (SPR) output, that increases specific flexible mode pole damping ratios w.r.t the PD only case and hence reduces unwanted residual oscillation effects. Restricting full state feedback gains so as to produce a SPR open loop transfer function ensures that the associated compensator has an infinite gain margin and a phase margin of at least (-90, 90) degrees. Both experimental and simulation data are evaluated in order to compare some different observer performance when applied to the real testbed and to the linear model when uncompensated flexible modes are included.

Hughes, Declan↗

Sparse-grid discontinuous Galerkin methods for the Vlasov–Poisson–Lenard–Bernstein model

Sparse-grid methods have recently gained interest in reducing the computational cost of solving high-dimensional kinetic equations. In this paper, we construct adaptive and hybrid sparse-grid methods for the Vlasov–Poisson–Lenard–Bernstein (VPLB) model. This model has applications to plasma physics and is simulated in two reduced geometries: a 0x3v space homogeneous geometry and a 1x3v slab geometry. Here we use the discontinuous Galerkin (DG) method as a base discretization due to its high-order accuracy and ability to preserve important structural properties of partial differential equations. We utilize a multiwavelet basis expansion to determine the sparse-grid basis and the adaptive mesh criteria. We analyze the proposed sparse-grid methods on a suite of three test problems by computing the savings afforded by sparse-grids in comparison to standard solutions of the DG method. The results are obtained using the adaptive sparse-grid discretization library ASGarD.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Investigating the Unique Ability of Trichodesmium To Fix Carbon and Nitrogen Simultaneously Using MiMoSA

The open ocean is an extremely competitive environment, partially due to the dearth of nutrients. Trichodesmium erythraeum, a marine diazotrophic cyanobacterium, is a keystone species in the ocean due to its ability to fix nitrogen and leak 30 to 50% into the surrounding environment, providing a valuable source of a necessary macronutrient to other species. While there are other diazotrophic cyanobacteria that play an important role in the marine nitrogen cycle, Trichodesmium is unique in its ability to fix both carbon and nitrogen simultaneously during the day without the use of specialized cells called heterocysts to protect nitrogenase from oxygen. Here, we use the advanced modeling framework called multiscale multiobjective systems analysis (MiMoSA) to investigate how Trichodesmium erythraeum can reduce dimolecular nitrogen to ammonium in the presence of oxygen. Our simulations indicate that nitrogenase inhibition is best modeled as Michealis-Menten competitive inhibition and that cells along the filament maintain microaerobia using high flux through Mehler reactions in order to protect nitrogenase from oxygen. We also examined the effect of location on metabolic flux and found that cells at the end of filaments operate in distinctly different metabolic modes than internal cells despite both operating in a photoautotrophic mode. These results give us important insight into how this species is able to operate photosynthesis and nitrogen fixation simultaneously, giving it a distinct advantage over other diazotrophic cyanobacteria because they can harvest light directly to fuel the energy demand of nitrogen fixation.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Model certainty in cellular network-driven processes with missing data

Mathematical models are often used to explore network-driven cellular processes from a systems perspective. However, a dearth of quantitative data suitable for model calibration leads to models with parameter unidentifiability and questionable predictive power. Here we introduce a combined Bayesian and Machine Learning Measurement Model approach to explore how quantitative and non-quantitative data constrain models of apoptosis execution within a missing data context. We find model prediction accuracy and certainty strongly depend on rigorous data-driven formulations of the measurement, and the size and make-up of the datasets. For instance, two orders of magnitude more ordinal (e.g., immunoblot) data are necessary to achieve accuracy comparable to quantitative (e.g., fluorescence) data for calibration of an apoptosis execution model. Notably, ordinal and nominal (e.g., cell fate observations) non-quantitative data synergize to reduce model uncertainty and improve accuracy. Finally, we demonstrate the potential of a data-driven Measurement Model approach to identify model features that could lead to informative experimental measurements and improve model predictive power.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Smart Proxy Modeling Application of Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning in Computational Fluid Dynamics

Smart proxy technology leverages the art of artificial intelligence and machine learning in order to build accurate and very fast proxy models for highly complex numerical simulation models. In this project, smart proxy technology is used to replicate the results of a highly complex single phase CFD simulation with reasonable degree of accuracy while reducing the computational cost associated with such CFD simulations. The CFD model under study simulates the combustion of natural gas under various conditions such as varying natural gas composition and flow rate, inlet air flow rate and temperature, and outlet pressure in a High-Pressure Combustion Facility (B6 Combustor) with more than 4 million simulation cells. Only eight CFD simulation runs were used to create a smart proxy model that replicates the detail distribution of Pressure, Temperature, Nitrogen, Oxygen and Carbon-dioxide concentration in the CFD simulation model in seconds with less than 10% error.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Cascaded coherent tracking systems with time-varying channels

A performance analysis is presented of a two-way coherent tracking system (of the type used for spacecraft tracking and navigation) in which the transmitted signals have pass through linear time-varying channels. The performance of the system is characterized by the steady state probability density function of the reduced phase error process in the second tracking loop, the system considered consisting of two first-order phase locked loops in cascade. While the log normal channel, which arises in communication through planetary atmospheres, was used as the channel model, the results can be extended to other channels, such as the Rice and Rayleigh channels.

Weber, W. J., III↗

Intraplate deformation and closure of the Australia-Antarctica-Africa plate circuit

Plate motion data along the Southeast, Southwest, and Central Indian ridges have been reduced to 67 spreading rates, 38 transform fault azimuths, and 135 earthquake slip vectors in order to study the current motion between the Australian, Antarctic, and African plates and to investigate whether this plate circuit obeys closure. Magnetic profiles are modeled to determine rates consistently over a 3-m.y. time-averaging interval, and the new rates are shown to differ from published rates by as much as 5 mm/yr. The results indicate that Indian Ocean plate circuit nonclosure and the deformation that it suggests are much smaller than previously supposed, and support a model in which the significant deformation occurs in a diffuse plate boundary along the equatorial Indian Ocean between the Central Indian Ridge and the Sumatra Trench.

Demets, Charles↗

Attractive Su-Schrieffer-Heeger-Hubbard model on a square lattice away from half-filling

The Su-Schrieffer-Heeger (SSH) model, with bond phonons modulating electron tunneling, is a paradigmatic electron-phonon model that hosts an antiferromagnetic order to bond order transition at half-filling. In the presence of a repulsive Hubbard interaction, the antiferromagnetic phase is enhanced, but the phase transition remains first order. Here, we explore the physics of the SSH model with an attractive Hubbard interaction, which hosts an interesting interplay among charge order, s-wave pairing, and bond order. Using the numerically exact determinant quantum Monte Carlo method, we show that both charge order, present at weak electron-phonon coupling, and bond order, at large coupling, give way to s-wave pairing when the system is doped. Lastly, we demonstrate that the SSH electron-phonon interaction competes with the attractive Hubbard interaction and reduces the s-wave pairing correlation.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Supersonic stability and control characteristics of a 0.015 scale model 69-0 of the space shuttle orbiter with forebody RSI modifications in the NASA/LaRC 4-foot UPWT (legs 1 and 2) (LA71A/B)

Investigations are reported for the determination of aerodynamic effects of reducing the thickness of the reusable surface insulation located along the sides of the shuttle orbiter in order to allow weight reduction in the nose region. Six-component aerodynamic force and moment data were obtained at Mach numbers from 1.5 to 4.6 over an angle of attack range from about -1 deg to 28 deg. Additional tests were made over an angle of sideslip range from -6 deg to 6 deg at selected angles of attack. Test results are presented in graph and tables.

Source record↗

Thermophysical Property Measurements of Molten Semiconductors in 1-g and Reduced-g Condition

Understanding and controlling the formation kinetics of varieties of crystal imperfections such as point defects, non uniform distribution of doping atoms, and impurity atoms in growing crystals are very important. Theoretical (numerical) modeling of the crystal growth process is an essential step to achieving these objectives. In order to obtain reliable modeling results, input parameters, i.e. various thermophysical parameters, must be accurate. The importance of accurate thermophysical properties of semiconductors in crystal growth cannot be overly emphasized. The total hemispherical emissivity, for instance, has a dramatic impact on the thermal environment. It determines the radiative emission from the surface of the melt which determines to a large extent the profile of the solidified crystal. In order to understand the convection and the turbulence in a melt, viscosity becomes an important parameter. The liquid surface tension determines the shape of the liquid-atmosphere interface near the solid-liquid-atmosphere triple point. Currently used values for these parameters are rather inaccurate, and this program intends to provide more reliable measurements of these thermophysical properties. Thus, the objective of this program is in the accurate measurements of various thermophysical properties which can be reliably used in the modeling of various crystal growth processes. In this program, thermophysical properties of molten semiconductors, such as Si, Ge, Si-Ge, and InSb will be measured as a function of temperature using the High Temperature Electrostatic Levitator at JPL. Each material will be doped by different kinds of impurities at various doping levels. Thermophysical properties which will be measured include: density, thermal expansion coefficient, surface tension, viscosity, specific heat, hemispherical total emissivity, and perhaps electrical and thermal conductivities. Many molten semiconductors are chemically reactive with crucibles. As a result, these dispersed impurities in the melts tend to substantially modify the properties of pure semiconductors. Sample levitation done in a vacuum clearly helps maintain the sample purity. However, in the 1-g environment, all gravity caused effects such as convection, sedimentation and buoyancy are still present in the sample. In addition, large forces needed to levitate a sample in the presence of the gravity can cause additional flows in the melt. The use of the High Temperature Electrostatic Levitator (HTESL) for the present research is a recent development and little is known about the flows induced by the electrostatic forces. In this ground base program, we will define the limits of HTESL technology as various thermophysical properties of molten semiconductors are measured.

Rhim, Won-Kyu↗

Generative learning for slow manifolds and bifurcation diagrams

In dynamical systems characterized by separation of time scales, the approximation of so called “slow manifolds”, on which the long term dynamics lie, is a useful step for model reduction. Initializing on such slow manifolds is a useful step in modeling, since it circumvents fast transients, and is crucial in multiscale algorithms (like the equation-free approach) alternating between fine scale (fast) and coarser scale (slow) simulations. In a similar spirit, when one studies the infinite time dynamics of systems depending on parameters, the system attractors (e.g., its steady states) lie on bifurcation diagrams (curves for one-parameter continuation, and more generally, on manifolds in state parameter space. Sampling these manifolds gives us representative attractors (here, steady states of ODEs or PDEs) at different parameter values. Algorithms for the systematic construction of these manifolds (slow manifolds, bifurcation diagrams) are required parts of the “traditional” numerical nonlinear dynamics toolkit. In more recent years, as the field of Machine Learning develops, conditional score-based generative models (cSGMs) have been demonstrated to exhibit remarkable capabilities in generating plausible data from target distributions that are conditioned on some given label. It is tempting to exploit such generative models to produce samples of data distributions (points on a slow manifold, steady states on a bifurcation surface) conditioned on (consistent with) some quantity of interest (QoI, observable). In this work, we present a framework for using cSGMs to quickly (a) initialize on a low-dimensional (reduced-order) slow manifold of a multi-time-scale system consistent with desired value(s) of a QoI (a “label”) on the manifold, and (b) approximate steady states in a bifurcation diagram consistent with a (new, out-of-sample) parameter value. This conditional sampling can help uncover the geometry of the reduced slow-manifold and/or approximately “fill in” missing segments of steady states in a bifurcation diagram. Finally, the quantity of interest, which determines how the sampling is conditioned, is either known a priori or identified using manifold learning-based dimensionality reduction techniques applied to the training data.

Dynamical systems↗

Design and Application of the Exploration Maintainability Analysis Tool

Conducting human exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will present unique challenges in the areas of supportability and maintainability. The durations of proposed missions can be relatively long and re-supply of logistics, including maintenance and repair items, will be limited or non-existent. In addition, mass and volume constraints in the transportation system will limit the total amount of logistics that can be flown along with the crew. These constraints will require that new strategies be developed with regards to how spacecraft systems are designed and maintained. NASA is currently developing Design Reference Missions (DRMs) as an initial step in defining future human missions. These DRMs establish destinations and concepts of operation for future missions, and begin to define technology and capability requirements. Because of the unique supportability challenges, historical supportability data and models are not directly applicable for establishing requirements for beyond LEO missions. However, supportability requirements could have a major impact on the development of the DRMs. The mass, volume, and crew resources required to support the mission could all be first order drivers in the design of missions, elements, and operations. Therefore, there is a need for enhanced analysis capabilities to more accurately establish mass, volume, and time requirements for supporting beyond LEO missions. Additionally, as new technologies and operations are proposed to reduce these requirements, it is necessary to have accurate tools to evaluate the efficacy of those approaches. In order to improve the analysis of supportability requirements for beyond LEO missions, the Space Missions Analysis Branch at the NASA Langley Research Center is developing the Exploration Maintainability Analysis Tool (EMAT). This tool is a probabilistic simulator that evaluates the need for repair and maintenance activities during space missions and the logistics and crew requirements to support those activities. Using a Monte Carlo approach, the tool simulates potential failures in defined systems, based on established component reliabilities, and then evaluates the capability of the crew to repair those failures given a defined store of spares and maintenance items. Statistical analysis of Monte Carlo runs provides probabilistic estimates of overall mission safety and reliability. This paper will describe the operation of the EMAT, including historical data sources used to populate the model, simulation processes, and outputs. Analysis results are provided for a candidate exploration system, including baseline estimates of required sparing mass and volume. Sensitivity analysis regarding the effectiveness of proposed strategies to reduce mass and volume requirements and improve mission reliability is included in these results.

Stromgren, Chel↗

Computational Modeling of Multi-Pass Rolling Parameters Effect on Resulting Fuel Foil Shape

A focus of the U.S. Department of Energy is to improve production yield and reduce the cost of Low Enriched Uranium (LEU)-molybdenum alloy (U-10Mo) monolithic fuel plates that will be replacing High Enriched Uranium (HEU) oxide dispersion fuels used currently in the United States High Performance Research Reactors (USHPRR). One area of improvement is lowering the high transverse waviness and longitudinal waviness currently present within rolled foils prior to cladding to produce fuel plates. Traditional rolling manufacturing techniques for other metal foils use winders to pull and straighten the foil as it is rolled back and forth to the final thickness. This approach cannot be used to roll thin U-10Mo foils (0.008-0.025” thick) because only small castings can be rolled due to nuclear criticality safety concerns. As a result, the fuel foils are too short (1 m in length) to use traditional winders. Therefore, it is crucial to identify other rolling parameters (i.e., roller friction, axial tension load, roller diameter, and roll pass reduction percent) that might reduce transverse waviness and longitudinal waviness in the rolled fuel foil and develop a high-yield, low-cost multi-pass rolling manufacturing process. This report documents a systematic finite element modeling study to investigate the effects of numerous rolling parameters to reduce resulting transverse waviness and longitudinal waviness in the fuel foil during multi-pass rolling of U-10Mo foils. The rolling of a U-10Mo plate with initial dimensions of 1”x1”x 0.048” is modeled using Abaqus CAE. This rolling is modeled to undergo eight 20% reduction roll passes to a final fuel foil thickness of 0.01”. The elastic-plastic constitutive model of the U-10Mo alloy was input to the fuel foil rolling model. The rollers were modeled as rigid bodies. A comparison of rolling friction coefficients of 0.3 and 0.7 over a wide range of applied axial tension loads were investigated in order to evaluate the effect of using a lubricant during rolling. The effect of roller diameter on the resulting transverse waviness and longitudinal waviness of the fuel foil over a wide range of axial tension loads were also investigated by modeling rollers 7/8” and 3.75” in diameter. The results of this systematic finite element method study will aid manufacturers in producing low transverse waviness and reduced longitudinal waviness in U-10Mo fuel foils.

U-10Mo, FEA, Rolling, Residual Stress, Fuel Foil↗

Effects of high CO2 levels on surface temperature and atmospheric oxidation state of the early earth

One-dimensional radiative and photochemical models are used to determine how much CO2 must have been present to maintain a temperate early climate and to examine the consequences that are implied for the controls on atmospheric oxidation state. It is shown that CO2 concentrations of the order of 1000 PAL are required to keep the average surface temperature close to the present value, if albedo changes and heating by reduced greenhouse gases were relatively unimportant. The oxidation state of such a high-CO2, prebiotic atmosphere should have been largely determined by the balance between the H2O2 rainout rate and the rate at which hydrogen escaped to space, with only a weak dependence on the volcanic outgassing rate or on other speculative sources of H2. The implied upper limit on the ground-level O2 mixing ratio is approximately 10 to the -11th and is subject to less uncertainty than the results of previous models.

Kasting, J. F.↗

Slimmer Geminals For Accurate F12 Electronic Structure Models

The Slater-type F12 geminal length scales originally tuned for the second-order Mo̷ller-Plesset F12 method are too large for higher-order F12 methods formulated using the SP (diagonal fixed-coefficient spin-adapted) F12 ansatz. The new geminal parameters reported herein reduce the basis set incompleteness errors (BSIEs) of absolute coupled-cluster singles and doubles F12 correlation energies by a significant─and increase with the cardinal number of the basis─margin. The effect of geminal reoptimization is especially pronounced for the cc-pVXZ-F12 basis sets (specifically designed for use with F12 methods) relative to their conventional aug-cc-pVXZ counterparts. The BSIEs of relative energies are less affected, but substantial reductions can be obtained, especially for atomization energies and ionization potentials with the cc-pVXZ-F12 basis sets. The new geminal parameters are therefore recommended for all applications of high-order F12 methods, such as coupled-cluster F12 methods and transcorrelated F12 methods.

Powell, Samuel R. [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and ↗