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Algae Biofuels Co-Location Assessment Tool

ABCLAT was built to help any model user with spatially explicit Nitrogen, Phosphorous, and Carbon Dioxide nutrient flux information, and solar resource information evaluate algal cultivation potential. Initial applications of this modeling framework include Algae Biofuels Co-Location Assessment Tool Canada and Australia. The Canadian application was copyrighted November 29th 2011 as the Algae Biofuels Co-Location Assessment Tool for Canada. This copyright assertion is for the general framework from which any country or region with the requisite data could create a regionally specific application. The ABCLAT model framework developed by SNL looks at the growth potential in a given region as a function of available nutrients from wastewater and other sources, carbon dioxide from power plants, available solar potential, and if available, land cover and use information. The model framework evaluates the biomass potential, fixed carbon dioxide, potential algal biocrude and required land area for nutrient sources. ABCLAT is built with an object-oriented software program that can provide an easy to use interface for exploring questions related to aigal biomass production.

Source record↗

Mars Molniya Orbit Atmospheric Resource Mining

This NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) Phase I study examined the revolutionary concept of performing resource collection and utilization during Mars orbital operations in order to enable the landing of large payloads. An exploration architecture was developed, out of which several mission alternatives were developed. Concepts of operations were then developed for each mission alternative, followed by concepts for spacecraft systems, which were traded to assess their feasibility. A novel architecture using Mars Molniya Orbit Atmospheric Resource Mining is feasible to enable an Earth-independent and pioneering, permanent human presence on Mars by providing a reusable, single-stage-to-orbit transportation system. This will allow cargo and crew to be routinely delivered to and from Mars without transporting propellants from Earth.In Phase I, our study explored how electrical energy could be harnessed from the kinetic energy of the incoming spacecraft and then be used to produce the oxygen necessary for landing. This concept of operations is revolutionary in that its focus is on using in situ resources in complementary and varied forms: the upper atmosphere of Mars is used for aerocapture, which is followed by aerobraking, the kinetic energy of the spacecraft is transformed into usable electrical energy during aerobraking, and the atmospheric composition is the source of oxidizer for a landing under supersonic retropropulsion. This NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) Phase I study explores a novel mission architecture to establish routine, Earth-independent transfer of large mass payloads between Earth and the Mars surface and back to Mars orbit. The first stage of routine mission operations involves an atmospheric resource mining aerobraking campaign following aerocapture into a highly elliptical Mars orbit. During each pass through the atmosphere, the vehicle ingests the atmospheric oxidizer and stores it onboard, using solid oxide electrolysis to convert the primarily CO2 atmosphere into usable O2 for propellant. Power is made available through the use of magnetohydrodynamic energy generation, which converts the motion of the plasma in the shock later into usable electrical energy. Upon termination of the aerobraking sequence, the descent vehicle detaches from the orbit stack, deorbits, and executes the entry, descent, and landing sequence. Hypersonic deceleration is achieved via a deployable heat shield to lower the vehicle ballistic coefficient, and supersonic and subsonic deceleration are achieved via retropropulsion. Mars surface operations involve resource mining of the Martian regolith to produce CH4 and O2 propellant to be used for the subsequent MDAV ascent back to high Mars orbit (HMO) providing an apoapsis raise maneuver to initialize the aerobraking sequence, in addition to providing fuel from the Mars surface for EDL propulsive descent. The Resource Collector Vehicle (RCV), which is used for the orbital mining operations, is raised back to HMO via onboard deployable augmented solar electric propulsion. Concepts of operations were developed for each mission alternative, to evaluate between them and assess feasibility.

Mining↗

A Comparison of RESRAD and GoldSim Models for Assessing Radiological Dose for a RCRA Landfill - 20418

US Ecology Idaho (USEI) operates a Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Subtitle C, Hazardous Waste Treatment, Storage, and Disposal (TSD) Facility on a 640-acre property in Owyhee County, Idaho. USEI accepts a wide variety of RCRA-exempt low activity radioactive wastes, including naturally occurring radioactive material (NORM) and technologically enhanced NORM (TENORM) (USEI 2009). The performance of the landfill with regard to radiological operating permit requirements was previously assessed using a model constructed with the residual radioactivity (RESRAD) computer program, developed by Argonne National Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). RESRAD supports the evaluation of several environmental transport pathways related to a radionuclide-contaminated soil source term, but it was not conceived as a model for the evaluation of landfill radiological performance. A more comprehensive and realistic model is desired in order to better support submissions to both the State of Idaho's Department of Environmental Quality as well as the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. A Performance Assessment (PA) computer model was developed using GoldSim software for the USEI RCRA Subtitle C landfill. The RESRAD computer model was specifically developed for calculating soil cleanup criteria and radiological dose and cancer risk from residual radioactive material in soil. To evaluate site-specific conditions, users may select from among a number of available environmental transport and exposure pathways and modify 'default' parameter values. In GoldSim, a user must construct the model 'from scratch.' However, this modeling is facilitated by a number of specialized elements available in GoldSim to support a radiological mass transport model. These include elements for defining radiological decay and ingrowth, container failure and radiological release, advective and diffusive transport, and other processes. Advantages afforded by the use of RESRAD for modeling radiological dose for a RCRA Subtitle C landfill include ease of use and reasonable flexibility in specifying site-specific conditions. GoldSim allows for considerably more flexibility and site-specificity than RESRAD, including evaluation of potentially relevant environmental transport processes not supported in RESRAD. The probabilistic modeling capabilities of GoldSim also far exceed those of RESRAD. The pros and cons of RESRAD and GoldSim for this modeling problem are explored with a focus on identifying approaches and critical factors in identifying the appropriate platform. The capabilities of RESRAD and GoldSim for mathematically modeling the disposal system will be contrasted and compared. For example, the existing RESRAD radiological safety assessment evaluated potentially complete exposure pathways related to infiltration to groundwater and upwards diffusion of radon. Additional transport pathways identified in the USEI Idaho facility Conceptual Site Model include deposition of radon decay products in cover material, root uptake of radionuclides in disposed wastes by native plants, and mixing of cover material by burrowing animals. Results of the two models and how the different transport and dose pathways affect results will be discussed. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Hybrid data-driven cement-stabilized soil design: An integration of machine learning, multi-objective optimization, and life cycle assessment

Soil stabilization is crucial in geotechnical engineering, yet conventional methods are often time-consuming, resource-intensive, and environmentally unsustainable. Despite growing interest in Machine Learning (ML) and optimization tools for mix design, few studies integrate these methods with decision-making techniques and environmental assessment to support practical implementation. This study proposes a hybrid data-driven framework for predicting strength, optimizing mix compositions, and evaluating environmental impacts via life cycle assessment of cement-stabilized soft soils. Six ML models were evaluated, and the top-performing eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) model was further improved using the Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO). The optimized XGB-GWO model, integrated with a polynomial cost function, served as the objective function in a multi-objective optimization problem solved via the Non-Dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II (NSGA-II), with final mix selection guided by the entropy-weighted TOPSIS method. Validation through a case study produced mix designs offering superior strength-cost trade-offs, with the optimal mix achieving 2243.2 kPa unconfined compressive strength and a 16.07 % reduction in carbon emissions compared to the highest-cost design. In conclusion, this study offers a sustainable, scalable approach to soil stabilization and supports informed decision-making in construction.

Life cycle assessment↗

The NASA Bed Rest Project

NASA s National Vision for Space Exploration includes human travel beyond low earth orbit and the ultimate safe return of the crews. Crucial to fulfilling the vision is the successful and timely development of countermeasures for the adverse physiological effects on human systems caused by long term exposure to the microgravity environment. Limited access to in-flight resources for the foreseeable future increases NASA s reliance on ground-based analogs to simulate these effects of microgravity. The primary analog for human based research will be head-down bed rest. By this approach NASA will be able to evaluate countermeasures in large sample sizes, perform preliminary evaluations of proposed in-flight protocols and assess the utility of individual or combined strategies before flight resources are requested. In response to this critical need, NASA has created the Bed Rest Project at the Johnson Space Center. The Project establishes the infrastructure and processes to provide a long term capability for standardized domestic bed rest studies and countermeasure development. The Bed Rest Project design takes a comprehensive, interdisciplinary, integrated approach that reduces the resource overhead of one investigator for one campaign. In addition to integrating studies operationally relevant for exploration, the Project addresses other new Vision objectives, namely: 1) interagency cooperation with the NIH allows for Clinical Research Center (CRC) facility sharing to the benefit of both agencies, 2) collaboration with our International Partners expands countermeasure development opportunities for foreign and domestic investigators as well as promotes consistency in approach and results, 3) to the greatest degree possible, the Project also advances research by clinicians and academia alike to encourage return to earth benefits. This paper will describe the Project s top level goals, organization and relationship to other Exploration Vision Projects, implementation strategy, address Project deliverables, schedules and provide a status of bed rest campaigns presently underway.

Rhodes, Bradley↗

New Matrix Framework to Determine Carbon Storage Technical Viability

Carbon storage is an integral component of reducing CO2 emissions. Research over the past two decades has developed workflows for volume assessments and economic project feasibility, providing necessary and useful tools to progress geologic carbon storage (GCS) projects. These workflows and assessments have focused primarily on determining the in-situ storage resource based on geologic and engineering parameters and do not integrate subsurface characterization with surface conditions, social factors, and environmental factors that may pose a benefit or impediment to the implementation of GCS. Furthermore, the data required to assess the technical viability of GCS are myriad and disparate. There is no current methodology that identifies technical viability criteria and systematically informs how to aggregate these factors for spatial assessments. To address this gap, the National Energy Technology Laboratory has developed a Carbon Storage Technical Viability Approach (CS TVA) Matrix that incorporates a wide variety of factors to inform and accelerate screening for GCS site selection in the United States.

Mulhern, Julia↗

Rare Earth Element (REE) and Critical Mineral Fractions of Central Appalachian Coal-Related Strata Determined by 7-Step Sequential Extraction

Rare earth elements (REEs) and critical minerals (CMs) are used in many modern industries, including the automotive sector, generation and storage, clean energy, and defense. The demand for REEs is increasing, and the REE supply chain is unpredictable. The US has driven to assess non-conventional sources of REE (such as coal underclay) to identify domestic resources to stabilize this uncertainty in supply. Knowledge of the minerology, distribution, and modes of occurrence of REEs is integral to the assessment of non-conventional sources. Additionally, extraction techniques can be optimized and targeted when REE distribution in different solid fractions from source material is understood. In this study, four bituminous coal-related samples associated with the Lower and Middle Kittanning coal seams in the Appalachian Basin (US) underwent a seven-step sequential extraction procedure, primarily targeting the water-soluble, exchangeable, acid soluble, mildly reducible, moderately reducible, strongly reducible, and oxidizable fractions. The REE and other elements of interest from each extraction step were analyzed, and the percentages of element extracted from raw solids were calculated. REEs extracted from the total seven steps were reported as the extractable fraction, whereas the fractions in the residual solids were reported as the non-extractable fraction. Less than 6% of REE were extracted from three samples. Twenty-one percent of REE was extracted from the fourth sample, mainly from the steps targeting oxidizable and exchangeable phases. Co-extraction of critical metals (Co, Ni, Cu, and Zn) occurred during the oxidizable, exchangeable, acid soluble, and water-soluble steps for the four samples. In the extracted fractions, the four samples all exhibited a middle and heavy REE enrichment relative to light REE. The mobility of major cation (e.g., Ca, Fe, and P) and REE is associated with exchangeable, oxidizable, and acid soluble fractions. Non-extractable REE is likely held in refractory apatitic phases, and/or primary REE-phosphates (e.g., monazite and xenotime).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Hierarchical Resilience Planning for Networked Microgrids: A Case Study of Puerto Rico

Microgrids can be designed to enhance the energy resilience of communities and critical infrastructures, such as hospitals, data centers, and communication networks, which are vulnerable to frequent weather-related disruption. Coordinating multiple microgrids in a network can leverage the geographical diversity of load and generation resources while enabling resilient and cost-effective planning of the distribution system. Designing a networked microgrid is complex, involving intricate technical assessment, cost-benefit analysis, site-specific requirements, and the evaluation of existing resources. Therefore, this paper proposes a hierarchical resilience planning framework and performs an extensive techno-economic analysis for the design of a networked microgrid. Hierarchical resilience planning involves technology sizing at an individual community level to meet the critical load and satisfy resilience criteria, and resource optimization at networked microgrid level to provide a higher level of resilience and energy adequacy. A real-world case of Puerto Rico's cooperative microgrid “Microrred de la Montaña” is investigated considering localized electricity tariffs, site-specific demand profiles, solar generation, and existing hydro resources. Multiple optimization scenarios are developed based on the resiliency requirement to estimate the capacity of solar photovoltaic and battery energy storage (BES) to be installed at each substation. The results provide the optimal sizing for individual community and networked microgrid to withstand 1day and 3-day outages along with the criteria for critical load.

13 - HYDRO ENERGY↗

Lithium Recovery and Conversion from Wastewater Produced by Recycling of Li-Ion Batteries via Two-Stage Electrodialysis

Electrodialysis (ED) is a membrane separation technique that has been well-established in various applications such as desalination, drinking water production, wastewater treatment, and lithium salt production. A limited number of studies have explored its application in lithium salt production, especially from secondary resources like wastewater. This study investigated a route to recover lithium from wastewater generated from the recycling of end-of-life Li-ion batteries. Two electrodialysis methods, namely standard electrodialysis (ED) and bipolar-membrane electrodialysis (BPED), were combined to concentrate lithium ions and convert them to lithium hydroxide (LiOH), a valuable product that can be fed back into the supply chain for manufacturing Li-ion batteries. Lithium (Li⁺) concentration in recycling wastewater was successfully increased by 58% using ED and converted to LiOH (>96% purity) with a further increase in Li⁺ concentration by 67% using BPED. The Coulombic efficiency of the experiments was 91.0 and 92.2%, with specific energy consumption of 1 and 2.5 kWh/kg, and a production rate of 1.01 and 0.14 kg/h/m 2 for the ED and BPED processes, respectively. In addition, preliminary techno-economic and environmental impact analyses show a significant improvement (GHG emission reduction by 77% and total energy reduction by 53%) by producing LiOH via electrodialysis compared to conventional lithium production via brine extraction. The process was assessed to be beneficial for lithium extraction from secondary resources and to enhance overall battery recycling efforts.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

A Rapid Sequential Separation Method for Determination of Actinides and TENORM in Fracking Wastes - 20223

With recent advances in unconventional drilling technology in the US and around the world, the risks of environmental contamination and exposure due to technologically enhanced naturally occurring radioactive materials (TENORM) from fracking wastes have also surfaced. Although the Permian Basin (southeastern New Mexico, western Texas) has long been a modest producer of oil, the advent of fracking technology a decade ago turned it into hot property for producers. A 2018 assessment of undiscovered, technically recoverable continuous oil and gas resources by the U.S. Geological Survey estimates an average 46.3 billion barrels of oil and 281 trillion cubic feet of gas. This is likely to increase the use of unconventional drilling and TENORM generation. TENORM concentrations in oil and gas exploration and production waste can be several hundred to several thousand times higher than background TENORM concentrations. Both the thorium and uranium decay chains contribute to airborne radionuclides arising from the radon gas escaping the ground and subsequently decaying as airborne particulates. Additionally, radon decay products {sup 210}Pb and {sup 210}Po can build up in scale on the internal surfaces of oil and gas handling pipes and in sludge in refineries, becoming potential inhalation and ingestion hazards for workers. Furthermore, southeastern NM is also home to world's only licensed and operating transuranic nuclear waste repository, the DoE's Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP). Plutonium isotopes ({sup 239+240}Pu) and {sup 241}Am, are expected to account for more than 99% of the total radioactivity scheduled for disposal in the WIPP repository. Thus, an improved understanding of the environmental fate and transport of TENORM, liberated by unconventional drilling, is essential to assess how best to protect individuals and the environment. In this context, accurate measurement of TENORM and actinides in environmental and biological samples is essential. In this presentation, a new sequential method for the separation and pre-concentration of actinides (Pu, Am, Np) and TENORM (Po, U and Th) derived from oil and gas exploration is proposed. The TEVA method involves a rapid co-precipitation step to remove matrix interferences from the samples, followed by plutonium oxidation state adjustment to Pu (IV) and an incubation period of ∼ 1 hour at 50-60 deg. C to allow the resultant Po (II) to oxidize into Po(IV). The polonium, neptunium, thorium and plutonium are then separated on a TEVA column, while americium and uranium are separated on a TRU column. After separation, the alpha counting source was prepared by micro-precipitation with copper sulfide (CuS) for polonium and neodymium fluoride (NdF{sub 3}) for actinides. The efficiency and reliability of the procedures were tested by analyzing filter, drinking water and frack sand samples. The method is simple, robust and can be performed quickly with excellent removal of interferences, high chemical recovery and very good alpha peak resolution. (authors)

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Project: Corbomite - Product: ConsoleWorks REACT

TDi Technologies presents ConsoleWorks REACT, an advanced platform designed to tackle the complexities of cyber and operational risk assessment. This comprehensive solution goes beyond asset-focused approaches by considering the impact of both assets and people have on the security and operation of critical infrastructure, specifically targeting preventing gird mis-operation by evaluating real-time human interaction or commands with critical assets. The hypothesis suggests that by integrating the assessment of user commands into the overall risk assessment process, organizations can make more informed decisions, prioritize resources effectively, and respond promptly to potential threats. This hypothesis forms the basis for the development of a proactive and holistic risk management approach that is more comprehensive and context aware than traditional models which only look at assets, patch levels, configuration and threat intel by collecting that information off the network vs directly from the asset, human, and human interaction all in real-time. ConsoleWorks' unique man-in-the-middle architecture is a key feature that sets it apart in the cybersecurity landscape. This architecture enables the real-time observation, enforcement, and commands or interaction risk transparency of user interaction with critical infrastructure to be risk mitigated and audited as they are aggregated with device and human risk factors for a more comprehensive risk threat score across a device or group of devices. This architecture allows ConsoleWorks to act as a secure intermediary between users and critical assets, monitoring all interactions and ensuring that only authorized commands are sent to the asset to be executed. This not only enhances security but also provides a comprehensive audit trail of all user activities, contributing to compliance efforts and facilitating incident investigation and risk management. By integrating this unique architecture with our comprehensive risk assessment methodology, ConsoleWorks REACT provides a powerful solution for managing cyber and operational risks, enabling organizations to maintain a robust security posture and effectively mitigate potential threats. To that end, the primary objective of this project was to research and develop a robust solution that enables the energy industry to mitigate the risks associated with human actions that can compromise the security or operations of assets critical to energy delivery, generation, transmission and operation. ConsoleWorks REACT plays a pivotal role in achieving this goal by leveraging its unique capabilities to monitor and track all user activity. Through its Zero Trust approach, which emphasizes continuous verification, the platform ensures secure access to assets and serves as the centralized human response and notification platform for addressing cyber and operational issues.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Full Life-Cycle Defect Management Assessment: Initial Inspection Data Collection Results and Research Questions for Further Study

It is often the case in software projects that when schedule and budget resources are limited, the Verification and Validation (V&V) activities suffer. Fewer V&V activities can be afforded and moreover, short-term challenges can result in V&V activities being scaled back or dropped altogether. As a result, too often the default solution is to save activities for improving software quality until too late in the life-cycle, relying on late-term code inspections followed by thorough testing activities to reduce defect counts to acceptable levels. As many project managers realize, however, this is a resource-intensive way of achieving the required quality for software. The Full Life-cycle Defect Management Assessment Initiative, funded by NASA s Office of Safety and Mission Assurance under the Software Assurance Research Program, aims to address these problems by: Improving the effectiveness of early life-cycle V&V activities to make their benefits more attractive to team leads. Specifically, we focus on software inspection, a proven method that can be applied to any software work product, long before executable code has been developed; Better communicating this effectiveness to software development teams, along with suggestions for parameters to improve in the future to increase effectiveness; Analyzing the impact of early life-cycle V&V on the effectiveness and cost required for late life-cycle V&V activities, such as testing, in order to make the tradeoffs more apparent. This white paper reports on an initial milestone in this work, the development of a preliminary model of inspection effectiveness across multiple NASA Centers. This model contributes toward reaching our project goals by: Allowing an examination of inspection parameters, across different types of projects and different work products, for an analysis of factors that impact defect detection effectiveness. Allowing a comparison of this NASA-specific model to existing recommendations in the literature regarding how to plan effective inspections. Forming a baseline model which can be extended to incorporate factors describing: the numbers and types of defects that are missed by inspections; how such defects flow downstream through software development phases; how effectively they can be caught by testing activities in the late stages of development. The model has been implemented in a prototype web-enabled decision-support tool which allows developers to enter their inspection data and receive feedback based on a comparison against the model. The tool also allows users to access reusable materials (such as checklists) from projects included in the baseline. Both the tool itself and the model underlying it will continue to be extended throughout the remainder of this initiative. As results of analyzing inspection effectiveness for defect containment are determined, they can be shared via the tool and also via updates to existing training courses on metrics and software inspections. Moreover, the tool will help satisfy key CMMI requirements for the NASA Centers, as it will enable NASA to take a global view across peer review results for various types of projects to identify systemic problems. This analysis can result in continuous improvements to the approach to verification.

Shull, Forrest↗

Building Capacity to Use Earth Observations for Water Resource Management Applications: A Summary of NASA’s DEVELOP Program and Projects in Central and South America

NASA’s DEVELOP program engages individuals and organizations in 10-week feasibility studies to apply NASA Earth observations (EO) to decision makers’ needs. Since 2018, DEVELOP conducted 21 projects in Central and South America, eight of those in collaboration with Sistema de la Integración Centroamericana (SICA) and its member state partner agencies. These projects addressed a diverse set of community needs across multiple themes, including five that explored the use of both spaceborne and airborne EO to assess coastal water quality related to SDG monitoring of natural resources in Belize and Honduras, evaluating evapotranspiration and water balance in Argentina, and characterizing vegetation water use for informed water management in Panama. This poster introduces DEVELOP, its approach to capacity building, key partnerships, and project results highlighting the capabilities of EO for enhanced decision making in the area of sustainable water management.

Capacity Building↗

Baseline Risk Assessment Supporting Closure at Waste Management Area C at the Hanford Site Washington

The Office of River Protection under the U.S. Department of Energy is pursuing closure of the Single-Shell Tank (SST) Waste Management Area (WMA) C under the requirements of the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (HFFACO). A baseline risk assessment (BRA) of current conditions is based on available characterization data and information collected at WMA C. The baseline risk assessment is being developed as a part of a Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Facility Investigation (RFI)/Corrective Measures Study (CMS) at WMA C that is mandatory under Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act and RCRA corrective action. The RFI/CMS is needed to identify and evaluate the hazardous chemical and radiological contamination in the vadose zone from past releases of waste from WMA C. WMA C will be under Federal ownership and control for the foreseeable future, and managed as an industrial area with restricted access and various institutional controls. The exposure scenarios evaluated under these conditions include Model Toxics Control Act (MTCA) Method C, industrial worker, maintenance and surveillance worker, construction worker, and trespasser scenarios. The BRA evaluates several unrestricted land use scenarios (residential all-pathway, MTCA Method B, and Tribal) to provide additional information for risk management. Analytical results from 13 shallow zone (0 to 15 ft. below ground surface) sampling locations were collected to evaluate human health impacts at WMA C. In addition, soil analytical data were screened against background concentrations and ecological soil screening levels to determine if soil concentrations have the potential to adversely affect ecological receptors. Analytical data from 12 groundwater monitoring wells were evaluated between 2004 and 2013. A screening of groundwater monitoring data against background concentrations and Federal maximum concentration levels was used to determine vadose zone contamination impacts on groundwater. Waste Management Area C is the first of the Hanford tank farms to begin the closure planning process. The current baseline risk assessment will provide valuable information for making corrective actions and closure decisions for WMA C, and will also support the planning for future tank farm soil investigation and baseline risk assessments.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The Application of Lean Thinking Principles and Kaizen Practices for the Successful Development and Implementation of the Ares I-X Flight Test Rocket and Mission

On October 28, 2009 the Ares I-X flight test rocket launched from Kennedy Space Center and flew its suborbital trajectory as designed. The mission was successfully completed as data from the test, and associated development activities were analyzed, transferred to stakeholders, and well documented. Positive lessons learned from Ares I-X were that the application of lean thinking principles and kaizen practices are effective in streamlining development activities. Ares I-X, like other historical rocket development projects, was hampered by technical, cost, and schedule challenges and if not addressed boldly could have resulted in cancellation of the test. The mission management team conducted nine major meetings, referred to as lean events, across its elements to assess plans, procedures, processes, requirements, controls, culture, organization, use of resources, and anything that could be changed to optimize schedule or reduce risk. The preeminent aspect of the lean events was the focus on value added activities and the removal or at least reduction in non-value activities. Trained Lean Six Sigma facilitators assisted the Ares I-X developers in conducting the lean events. They indirectly helped formulate the mission s own unique methodology for assessing schedule. A core team was selected to lead the events and report to the mission manager. Each activity leveraged specialized participants to analyze the subject matter and its related processes and then recommended alternatives and solutions. Stakeholders were the event champions. They empowered and encouraged the team to succeed. The keys to success were thorough preparation, honest dialog, small groups, adherence to the Ares I-X ground rules, and accountability through disciplined reporting and tracking of actions. This lean event formula was game-changing as demonstrated by the success of Ares I-X. It is highly recommended as a management tool to help develop other complex systems efficiently. The key benefits for Ares I-X were obtaining unambiguous schedule margin, defining enabling options for risk reduction, and most importantly a stronger more unified team.

Askins, B. R.↗

Tiered Approach to Resilience Assessment

Regulatory agencies have long adopted a three-tier structure for risk assessment and risk management. We build on this structure to propose a tiered approach for resilience assessment that can be integrated in the existing regulatory processes. Comprehensive approaches to assessing resilience at appropriate and operational scales, reconciling analytical complexity as needed with stakeholder needs and resources available, and ultimately creating actionable recommendations to enhance resilience is still lacking. Our proposed structure consists of tiers by which analysts can scale a resilience assessment and associated management actions relative to the scope and urgency of the risk and the capacity of resource managers to improve system resilience. We use an application of water allocation decisions in the Platte River Basin, Nebraska, USA to illustrate this approach.

Sustainability, natural resources management, disa↗

CELAVI (Circular Economy Lifecycle Assessment and VIsualization) [SWR-20-87]

A circular economy emphasizes the efficient use of all resources (e.g., materials, land, water). Despite anticipated overall benefits to society, the transition to a circular economy is likely to create regional differences in impacts. Current tools are unable to fully evaluate these potential externalities, which will be important for informing research prioritization and regional decision making. The Circular Economy Lifecycle Assessment and VIsualization (CELAVI) framework allows stakeholders to quantify and visualize potential regional and sectoral transfers of impacts that could result from transitioning to a circular economy, with particular focus on energy materials. The framework uses system dynamics to model material flows for multiple circular economy pathways and decisions are based on learning-by-doing and are implemented via cost and strategic value of different circular economy pathways. It uses network theory to track the spatial and sectoral flow of functional units across a graph and discrete event simulation to to step through time and evaluate lifecycle assessment data at each time step. The framework is designed to be flexible and scalable to accommodate multiple energy materials and multiple energy technologies. The primary goal of CELAVI is to help answer questions about how material flows and environmental and economic impacts of energy systems might change if the circularity of energy systems increases.

Eberle, Annika↗

Microbial Risk Assessment

Historically, microbiological spaceflight requirements have been established in a subjective manner based upon expert opinion of both environmental and clinical monitoring results and the incidence of disease. The limited amount of data, especially from long-duration missions, has created very conservative requirements based primarily on the concentration of microorganisms. Periodic reevaluations of new data from later missions have allowed some relaxation of these stringent requirements. However, the requirements remain very conservative and subjective in nature, and the risk of crew illness due to infectious microorganisms is not well defined. The use of modeling techniques for microbial risk has been applied in the food and potable water industries and has exceptional potential for spaceflight applications. From a productivity standpoint, this type of modeling can (1) decrease unnecessary costs and resource usage and (2) prevent inadequate or inappropriate data for health assessment. In addition, a quantitative model has several advantages for risk management and communication. By identifying the variable components of the model and the knowledge associated with each component, this type of modeling can: (1) Systematically identify and close knowledge gaps, (2) Systematically identify acceptable and unacceptable risks, (3) Improve communication with stakeholders as to the reasons for resource use, and (4) Facilitate external scientific approval of the NASA requirements. The modeling of microbial risk involves the evaluation of several key factors including hazard identification, crew exposure assessment, dose-response assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these factors are similar to conditions found on Earth; however, the spaceflight environment is very specialized as the inhabitants live in a small, semi-closed environment that is often dependent on regenerative life support systems. To further complicate modeling efforts, microbial dose-response characteristics may be affected by a potentially dysfunctional crew immune system during a mission. In addition, microbial virulence has been shown to change under certain conditions during spaceflight, further complicating dose-response characterization. An initial study of the applicability of microbial risk assessment techniques was performed using Crew Health Care System (CHeCS) operational data from the International Space Station potable water systems. The risk of infection from potable water was selected as the flight systems and microbial ecology are well defined. This initial study confirmed the feasibility of using microbial risk assessment modeling for spaceflight systems. While no immediate threat was detected, the study identified several medically significant microorganisms that could pose a health risk if uncontrolled. The study also identified several specific knowledge gaps in making a risk assessment and noted that filling these knowledge gaps is essential as the risk estimates may change by orders of magnitude depending on the answers. The current phase of the microbial risk assessment studies focuses on the dose-response relationship of specific infectious agents, focusing on Salmonella enterica Typhimurium, Pseudomonas spp., and Escherichia coli, as their evaluation will provide a better baseline for determining the overall hazard characterization. The organisms were chosen as they either have been isolated on spacecraft or have an identified route of infection during a mission. The characterization will utilize dose-response models selected either from the peer-reviewed literature and/or by using statistical approaches. Development of these modeling and risk assessment techniques will help to optimize flight requirements and to protect the safety, health, and performance of the crew.

Ott, C. M.↗