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NASA NTRS2015

Development and Execution of the RUNSAFE Runway Safety Bayesian Belief Network Model

One focus area of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is to improve aviation safety. Runway safety is one such thrust of investigation and research. The two primary components of this runway safety research are in runway incursion (RI) and runway excursion (RE) events. These are adverse ground-based aviation incidents that endanger crew, passengers, aircraft and perhaps other nearby people or property. A runway incursion is the incorrect presence of an aircraft, vehicle or person on the protected area of a surface designated for the landing and take-off of aircraft; one class of RI events simultaneously involves two aircraft, such as one aircraft incorrectly landing on a runway while another aircraft is taking off from the same runway. A runway excursion is an incident involving only a single aircraft defined as a veer-off or overrun off the runway surface. Within the scope of this effort at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC), generic RI, RE and combined (RI plus RE, or RUNSAFE) event models have each been developed and implemented as a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). Descriptions of runway safety issues from the literature searches have been used to develop the BBN models. Numerous considerations surrounding the process of developing the event models have been documented in this report. The event models were then thoroughly reviewed by a Subject Matter Expert (SME) panel through multiple knowledge elicitation sessions. Numerous improvements to the model structure (definitions, node names, node states and the connecting link topology) were made by the SME panel. Sample executions of the final RUNSAFE model have been presented herein for baseline and worst-case scenarios. Finally, a parameter sensitivity analysis for a given scenario was performed to show the risk drivers. The NASA and LaRC research in runway safety event modeling through the use of BBN technology is important for several reasons. These include: 1) providing a means to clearly understand the cause and effect patterns leading to safety issues, incidents and accidents, 2) enabling the prioritization of specialty areas needing more attention to improve aviation safety, and 3) enabling the identification of gaps within NASA's Aviation Safety funding portfolio

Green, Lawrence L.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Brief History of Agricultural Systems Modeling

Agricultural systems science generates knowledge that allows researchers to consider complex problems or take informed agricultural decisions. The rich history of this science exemplifies the diversity of systems and scales over which they operate and have been studied. Modeling, an essential tool in agricultural systems science, has been accomplished by scientists from a wide range of disciplines, who have contributed concepts and tools over more than six decades. As agricultural scientists now consider the next generation models, data, and knowledge products needed to meet the increasingly complex systems problems faced by society, it is important to take stock of this history and its lessons to ensure that we avoid re-invention and strive to consider all dimensions of associated challenges. To this end, we summarize here the history of agricultural systems modeling and identify lessons learned that can help guide the design and development of next generation of agricultural system tools and methods. A number of past events combined with overall technological progress in other fields have strongly contributed to the evolution of agricultural system modeling, including development of process-based bio-physical models of crops and livestock, statistical models based on historical observations, and economic optimization and simulation models at household and regional to global scales. Characteristics of agricultural systems models have varied widely depending on the systems involved, their scales, and the wide range of purposes that motivated their development and use by researchers in different disciplines. Recent trends in broader collaboration across institutions, across disciplines, and between the public and private sectors suggest that the stage is set for the major advances in agricultural systems science that are needed for the next generation of models, databases, knowledge products and decision support systems. The lessons from history should be considered to help avoid roadblocks and pitfalls as the community develops this next generation of agricultural systems models.

agricultural systems↗

NASA NTRS2009

Human Factors Interface with Systems Engineering for NASA Human Spaceflights

This paper summarizes the past and present successes of the Habitability and Human Factors Branch (HHFB) at NASA Johnson Space Center s Space Life Sciences Directorate (SLSD) in including the Human-As-A-System (HAAS) model in many NASA programs and what steps to be taken to integrate the Human-Centered Design Philosophy (HCDP) into NASA s Systems Engineering (SE) process. The HAAS model stresses systems are ultimately designed for the humans; the humans should therefore be considered as a system within the systems. Therefore, the model places strong emphasis on human factors engineering. Since 1987, the HHFB has been engaging with many major NASA programs with much success. The HHFB helped create the NASA Standard 3000 (a human factors engineering practice guide) and the Human Systems Integration Requirements document. These efforts resulted in the HAAS model being included in many NASA programs. As an example, the HAAS model has been successfully introduced into the programmatic and systems engineering structures of the International Space Station Program (ISSP). Success in the ISSP caused other NASA programs to recognize the importance of the HAAS concept. Also due to this success, the HHFB helped update NASA s Systems Engineering Handbook in December 2007 to include HAAS as a recommended practice. Nonetheless, the HAAS model has yet to become an integral part of the NASA SE process. Besides continuing in integrating HAAS into current and future NASA programs, the HHFB will investigate incorporating the Human-Centered Design Philosophy (HCDP) into the NASA SE Handbook. The HCDP goes further than the HAAS model by emphasizing a holistic and iterative human-centered systems design concept.

Wong, Douglas T.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Comparative Model Evaluation Studies of Biogenic Trace Gas Fluxes in Tropical Forests

Simulation modeling can play a number of important roles in large-scale ecosystem studies, including synthesis of patterns and changes in carbon and nutrient cycling dynamics, scaling up to regional estimates, and formulation of testable hypotheses for process studies. Recent comparative studies have shown that ecosystem models of soil trace gas exchange with the atmosphere are evolving into several distinct simulation approaches. Different levels of detail exist among process models in the treatment of physical controls on ecosystem nutrient fluxes and organic substrate transformations leading to gas emissions. These differences are is in part from distinct objectives of scaling and extrapolation. Parameter requirements for initialization scalings, boundary conditions, and time-series driven therefore vary among ecosystem simulation models, such that the design of field experiments for integration with modeling should consider a consolidated series of measurements that will satisfy most of the various model requirements. For example, variables that provide information on soil moisture holding capacity, moisture retention characteristics, potential evapotranspiration and drainage rates, and rooting depth appear to be of the first order in model evaluation trials for tropical moist forest ecosystems. The amount and nutrient content of labile organic matter in the soil, based on accurate plant production estimates, are also key parameters that determine emission model response. Based on comparative model results, it is possible to construct a preliminary evaluation matrix along categories of key diagnostic parameters and temporal domains. Nevertheless, as large-scale studied are planned, it is notable that few existing models age designed to simulate transient states of ecosystem change, a feature which will be essential for assessment of anthropogenic disturbance on regional gas budgets, and effects of long-term climate variability on biosphere-atmosphere exchange.

Potter, C. S.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Textile composite processing science

A multi-dimensional model of the Resin Transfer Molding (RTM) process was developed for the prediction of the infiltration behavior of a resin into an anisotropic fiber preform. Frequency dependent electromagnetic sensing (FDEMS) was developed for in-situ monitoring of the RTM process. Flow visualization and mold filling experiments were conducted to verify sensor measurements and model predictions. Test results indicated good agreement between model predictions, sensor readings, and experimental data.

Loos, Alfred C.↗

NASA NTRS2012

A Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer HDO/H2O Retrieval Simulator for Climate Models

Retrievals of the isotopic composition of water vapor from the Aura Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) have unique value in constraining moist processes in climate models. Accurate comparison between simulated and retrieved values requires that model profiles that would be poorly retrieved are excluded, and that an instrument operator be applied to the remaining profiles. Typically, this is done by sampling model output at satellite measurement points and using the quality flags and averaging kernels from individual retrievals at specific places and times. This approach is not reliable when the model meteorological conditions influencing retrieval sensitivity are different from those observed by the instrument at short time scales, which will be the case for free-running climate simulations. In this study, we describe an alternative, categorical approach to applying the instrument operator, implemented within the NASA GISS ModelE general circulation model. Retrieval quality and averaging kernel structure are predicted empirically from model conditions, rather than obtained from collocated satellite observations. This approach can be used for arbitrary model configurations, and requires no agreement between satellite-retrieved and model meteorology at short time scales. To test this approach, nudged simUlations were conducted using both the retrieval-based and categorical operators. Cloud cover, surface temperature and free-tropospheric moisture content were the most important predictors of retrieval quality and averaging kernel structure. There was good agreement between the D fields after applying the retrieval-based and more detailed categorical operators, with increases of up to 30 over the ocean and decreases of up to 40 over land relative to the raw model fields. The categorical operator performed better over the ocean than over land, and requires further refinement for use outside of the tropics. After applying the TES operator, ModelE had D biases of 8 over ocean and 34 over land compared to TES D, which were less than the biases using raw model D fields.

Field, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Toward a space materials systems program

A program implementation model is presented which covers the early stages of space material processing and manufacturing. The model includes descriptions of major program elements, development and experiment requirements in space materials processing and manufacturing, and an integration of the model into NASA's long range plans as well as its evolution from present Materials Processing in Space plans.

Vontiesenhausen, G. F.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Modeling and Analysis of the Reverse Water Gas Shift Process for In-Situ Propellant Production

This report focuses on the development of mathematical models and simulation tools developed for the Reverse Water Gas Shift (RWGS) process. This process is a candidate technology for oxygen production on Mars under the In-Situ Propellant Production (ISPP) project. An analysis of the RWGS process was performed using a material balance for the system. The material balance is very complex due to the downstream separations and subsequent recycle inherent with the process. A numerical simulation was developed for the RWGS process to provide a tool for analysis and optimization of experimental hardware, which will be constructed later this year at Kennedy Space Center (KSC). Attempts to solve the material balance for the system, which can be defined by 27 nonlinear equations, initially failed. A convergence scheme was developed which led to successful solution of the material balance, however the simplified equations used for the gas separation membrane were found insufficient. Additional more rigorous models were successfully developed and solved for the membrane separation. Sample results from these models are included in this report, with recommendations for experimental work needed for model validation.

Whitlow, Jonathan E.↗

NASA NTRS1991

A distributed fault-detection and diagnosis system using on-line parameter estimation

The development of a model-based fault-detection and diagnosis system (FDD) is reviewed. The system can be used as an integral part of an intelligent control system. It determines the faults of a system from comparison of the measurements of the system with a priori information represented by the model of the system. The method of modeling a complex system is described and a description of diagnosis models which include process faults is presented. There are three distinct classes of fault modes covered by the system performance model equation: actuator faults, sensor faults, and performance degradation. A system equation for a complete model that describes all three classes of faults is given. The strategy for detecting the fault and estimating the fault parameters using a distributed on-line parameter identification scheme is presented. A two-step approach is proposed. The first step is composed of a group of hypothesis testing modules, (HTM) in parallel processing to test each class of faults. The second step is the fault diagnosis module which checks all the information obtained from the HTM level, isolates the fault, and determines its magnitude. The proposed FDD system was demonstrated by applying it to detect actuator and sensor faults added to a simulation of the Space Shuttle Main Engine. The simulation results show that the proposed FDD system can adequately detect the faults and estimate their magnitudes.

Guo, T.-H.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advances in Entry Modeling for Impact Risk Assessment

A summary of recent advancements in the detailed modeling of asteroid atmospheric entry processes made through NASA’s Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) is presented. Understanding, and accurately modeling these processes and their associated uncertainties is critical to predicting all downstream impact effects, such as blast wave and thermal damage footprints. Furthermore, there is (perhaps thankfully) a dearth of empirical data for large impactors of the kind that would pose a threat to human populations, on which to anchor and/or validate models used in risk assessments. Therefore, we must rely heavily on detailed theoretical and numerical modeling to develop robust assessments for decision makers. To that end, ATAP has made some significant progress in advancing the capabilities in this area. Two areas in particular are highlighted in the present work: meteoroid ablation mechanisms, and bolide luminosity.

ATAP↗

NASA NTRS1992

Modeling of coalescence, agglomeration, and phase segregation in microgravity processing of bimetallic composite materials

The overall objective of this research is to develop models to predict drop-size-distribution evolutions due to droplet collisions and coalescence during processing within the miscibility gap of bimetallic liquid-phase-miscibility-gap materials. The individual and collective action of gravitational and nongravitational mechanisms on the relative motion and coalescence of drops are considered.

Davis, Robert H.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Microphysics in Multi-scale Modeling System with Unified Physics

Recently, a multi-scale modeling system with unified physics was developed at NASA Goddard. It consists of (1) a cloud-resolving model (Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model, GCE model), (2) a regional scale model (a NASA unified weather research and forecast, WRF), (3) a coupled CRM and global model (Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework, MMF), and (4) a land modeling system. The same microphysical processes, long and short wave radiative transfer and land processes and the explicit cloud-radiation, and cloud-land surface interactive processes are applied in this multi-scale modeling system. This modeling system has been coupled with a multi-satellite simulator to use NASA high-resolution satellite data to identify the strengths and weaknesses of cloud and precipitation processes simulated by the model. In this talk, a review of developments and applications of the multi-scale modeling system will be presented. In particular, the microphysics development and its performance for the multi-scale modeling system will be presented.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

NASA NTRS2013

MPST Software: grl_pef_check

This innovation is a tool used to verify and validate spacecraft sequences at the predicted events file (PEF) level for the GRAIL (Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory, see http://www.nasa. gov/mission_pages/grail/main/index. html) mission as part of the Multi-Mission Planning and Sequencing Team (MPST) operations process to reduce the possibility for errors. This tool is used to catch any sequence related errors or issues immediately after the seqgen modeling to streamline downstream processes. This script verifies and validates the seqgen modeling for the GRAIL MPST process. A PEF is provided as input, and dozens of checks are performed on it to verify and validate the command products including command content, command ordering, flight-rule violations, modeling boundary consistency, resource limits, and ground commanding consistency. By performing as many checks as early in the process as possible, grl_pef_check streamlines the MPST task of generating GRAIL command and modeled products on an aggressive schedule. By enumerating each check being performed, and clearly stating the criteria and assumptions made at each step, grl_pef_check can be used as a manual checklist as well as an automated tool. This helper script was written with a focus on enabling the user with the information they need in order to evaluate a sequence quickly and efficiently, while still keeping them informed and active in the overall sequencing process. grl_pef_check verifies and validates the modeling and sequence content prior to investing any more effort into the build. There are dozens of various items in the modeling run that need to be checked, which is a time-consuming and errorprone task. Currently, no software exists that provides this functionality. Compared to a manual process, this script reduces human error and saves considerable man-hours by automating and streamlining the mission planning and sequencing task for the GRAIL mission.

Call, Jared A.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Radio-frequency interference effects of continuous sinewave signals on telemetry data

Continuous sinewave interference effects on telemetry data obtained at the Goldstone Deep Space Station (DSS 11) were analyzed. The continuous sinewave interference is treated as an extraneous noise. Empirical telemetry data degradation and drop-lock models were then developed based on test data and certain physical characteristics of the telemetry data processing system. These models will be used as a portion of the radio frequency interference detection tools in the first version of the Deep Space Interference Prediction software.

Low, P. W.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Model error estimation for large space systems

In-flight estimation of large structure model errors may have to be carried out in order to detect inevitable deficiencies in large structure controller/estimator models. These error estimates can most efficiently be obtained by the minimization of a quadratic functional of the model errors and on the subsequent analysis of the resulting optimal model error estimates. An integral operator approach to estimation leads to a geometrical interpretation of the model error estimation process. One of the significant insights gained with this interpretation is that the actual but unknown model errors can be decomposed as the sum of two distinct components that are orthogonal in some sense. One of these components is a so-called minimal error vector that retains many of the significant dynamics of the actual errors. The basic ideas in the model error estimation approach are first set forth with a two-dimensional analogy that has most of the essential features of the general estimation problem. The generalized results are then established and their application to a reference large structure model illustrated.

Rodriguez, G.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Temporal development of diffuse ion events upstream of the earth's bow shock - The October 31, 1977, event

The origin of the intensity-time profile characteristic of diffuse ion events upstream of the earth's bow shock is investigated. It is believed that the profile results from a rotation of the interplanetary magnetic field that produces as a systematic variation in the connection time of field lines with the bow shock. If the connection time exceeds the time needed to reach equilibrium between the shock acceleration and ion loss processes, a plateau in the ion intensity is formed. The upstream diffusion ion event of October 31, 1977, for which simultaneous magnetic field and ion intensity data have been published is used to test this scenario. This event is analyzed using a two-dimensional Gleeson-Axford equation to describe the shock acceleration process and a model bow shock whose nose serves as a uniform source of ions injected into the acceleration process. Intensity-time profiles are calculated for 30-keV and 120-keV protons for a range of diffusion coefficients using connection times that are based on the shock geometry and the magnetic field data.

Skadron, G.↗

NASA NTRS1993

Ignition and combustion characteristics of metallized propellants

Experimental and analytical investigations focusing on secondary atomization and ignition characteristics of aluminum/liquid hydrocarbon slurry propellants were conducted. Experimental efforts included the application of a laser-based, two-color, forward-scatter technique to simultaneously measure free-flying slurry droplet diameters and velocities for droplet diameters in the range of 10-200 microns. A multi-diffusion flame burner was used to create a high-temperature environment into which a dilute stream of slurry droplets could be introduced. Narrowband measurements of radiant emission were used to determine if ignition of the aluminum in the slurry droplet had occurred. Models of slurry droplet shell formation were applied to aluminum/liquid hydrocarbon propellants and used to ascertain the effects of solids loading and ultimate particle size on the minimum droplet diameter that will permit secondary atomization. For a 60 weight-percent Al slurry, the limiting critical diameter was predicted to be 34.7 microns which is somewhat greater than the 20-25 micron limiting diameters determined in the experiments. A previously developed model of aluminum ignition in a slurry droplet was applied to the present experiments and found to predict ignition times in reasonable agreement with experimental measurements. A model was also developed that predicts the mechanical stress in the droplet shell and a parametric study was conducted. A one-dimensional model of a slurry-fueled rocket combustion chamber was developed. This model includes the processes of liquid hydrocarbon burnout, secondary atomization, aluminum ignition, and aluminum combustion. Also included is a model for radiant heat transfer from the hot aluminum oxide particles to the chamber walls. Exercising this model shows that only a modest amount of secondary atomization is required to reduce residence times for aluminum burnout, and thereby maintain relatively short chamber lengths. The model also predicts radiant heat transfer losses to the walls to be only approximately 3 percent of the fuel energy supplied. Additional work is required to determine the effects of secondary atomization on two-phase losses in the nozzle.

Turns, Stephen R.↗

NASA NTRS1994

A Theoretical Evaluation of Secondary Atomization Effects on Engine Performance for Aluminum Gel Propellants

A one-dimensional model of a gel-fueled rocket combustion chamber has been developed. This model includes the processes of liquid hydrocarbon burnout, secondary atomization. aluminum ignition, and aluminum combustion. Also included is a model of radiative heat transfer from the solid combustion products to the chamber walls. Calculations indicate that only modest secondary atomization is required to significantly reduce propellant burnout distances, aluminum oxide residual size and radiation heat wall losses. Radiation losses equal to approximately 2-13 percent of the energy released during combustion were estimated. A two-dimensional, two-phase nozzle code was employed to estimate radiation and nozzle two-phase flow effects on overall engine performance. Radiation losses yielded a 1 percent decrease in engine I(sub sp). Results also indicate that secondary atomization may have less effect on two-phase losses than it does on propellant burnout distance and no effect if oxide particle coagulation and shear induced droplet breakup govern oxide particle size. Engine I(sub sp) was found to decrease from 337.4 to 293.7 seconds as gel aluminum mass loading was varied from 0-70 wt percent. Engine I(sub sp) efficiencies, accounting for radiation and two-phase flow effects, on the order of 0.946 were calculated for a 60 wt percent gel, assuming a fragmentation ratio of 5.

Mueller, D. C.↗