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This article lays out the core insights of the group of papers included in this special issue. The article lays out the logic of the project and highlights how an energy and security approach to energy policy—as opposed to one emphasizing “energy security through energy independence”–shifts our perspective on likely energy policy.
Increasing the adoption of solar among low-to-moderate income (LMI) households remains an important policy goal because of its promise to simultaneously reduce energy burden and support the just distribution of benefits of renewable energy. However, scaling LMI solar remains challenging due to affordability and access issues. Most existing LMI adoption has occurred under public-funded programs, highlighting the importance of increasing the cost-effectiveness of these programs at scale. We develop a new household-level data set on LMI solar lead acquisition, referrals, and adoption to understand the processes through which LMI solar uptake has occurred in California. Then, we develop models to predict two sub-mechanisms in the solar adoption process: whether an otherwise qualified lead becomes "lost" i.e. non-responsive to outreach and, for existing clients, whether they refer solar to others. For the program analyzed, participants received their solar system at no cost, which deemphasizes economic drivers of solar adoption and could differ from other program experiences. Both models substantially improved the accuracy of prediction relative to a baseline. Overall, we find that peer effects and solar economics are important to predicting referrals, and household demographic factors in lead loss prediction. Finally, we find that referrals are both the highest quality and largest source of LMI solar leads, providing a promising mechanism to expand LMI programs further.
Larger vehicles, such as sports utility vehicles, consume more energy than cars. Their increasing popularity runs contrary to the goal of fuel economy regulations to reduce fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions and can be explained by consumer preference and lower regulation stringency, which is due to footprint, truck classification, and the omission of heterogenous lifetime vehicle distance traveled among vehicle classes. This study shows that, for both the US and China, large vehicles travel more, last longer, and are owned by higher income consumers. This means large vehicles and their high-income owners use more fuel and emit more pollutants than represented by current policy and thus raises both policy effectiveness and energy equity concerns. We propose and estimate Sales Adjustment Factors that weigh fuel economy standards based on vehicle lifetime usage and demonstrate the resultant significant improvements in the effectiveness and equity of fuel economy regulations.
Adopting electric end-use technologies instead of fossil-fueled alternatives, known as electrification, is an important economy-wide decarbonization strategy that also reduces criteria pollutant emissions and improves air quality. In this study, we evaluate CO 2 and air quality co-benefits of electrification scenarios by linking a detailed energy systems model and a full-form photochemical air quality model in the United States. We find that electrification can substantially lower CO 2 and improve air quality and that decarbonization policy can amplify these trends, which yield immediate and localized benefits. In particular, transport electrification can improve ozone and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ), though the magnitude of changes varies regionally. However, growing activity from non-energy-related PM 2.5 sources—such as fugitive dust and agricultural emissions—can offset electrification benefits, suggesting that additional measures beyond CO 2 policy and electrification are needed to meet air quality goals. We illustrate how commonly used marginal emissions approaches systematically underestimate reductions from electrification.
As China’s rapid urbanization continues and urban dwellers become more affluent, energy use in buildings is expected to grow. To understand how this growth can be slowed, here we explore four scenarios for Chinese buildings, ranging from a high-energy-demand scenario with no new energy policies to lowest energy demand under a techno-economic-potential scenario that assumes full deployment of cost-effective efficient and renewable technologies by 2050. We show that, in the high energy demand scenario, building energy demand has an average annual growth rate of about 2.8%, with slower growth rates in the other three scenarios. In all scenarios, CO 2 emissions grow slower than energy, with building CO 2 peaking around 2045 in the high energy demand scenario, and as early as 2030 in the techno-economic-potential scenario. We show that although various technological solutions, systems and practices can be very effective in minimizing building energy use, rigorous policies are needed to overcome multiple implementation barriers.
Subsidized energy assistance programmes are a popular policy tool for promoting energy justice, but, like other social benefits programmes, are often undersubscribed. To improve uptake, some programmes have turned to social influence strategies, such as asking programme participants to refer their peers. Here, through a field experiment with California's low-income solar programme (N = 7,676), we show that referral behaviour depends on how existing participants are approached. Adding behavioural science strategies to a referral reward increases peer referral rates, referral quality and ultimately solar adoption. Compared with only reminding existing adopters of a potential US$200 reward for referrals that result in adoption, adding an appeal to reciprocity through a non-contingent US$1 gift - and further combining this gift with a simplified referral process - leads to 2.6-5.2 times as many solar contracts. These results highlight the potential of behaviourally informed peer referral programmes to accelerate equitable access to clean energy.
Community solar, a business model where multiple customers buy output from shared solar systems, has expanded solar access among multifamily housing occupants, renters, and low-income households. Policies to enable community solar could be expanded and benefits of access augmented through targeted measures to support community solar adoption in underserved communities.
Increasing energy efficiency in households, transportation, industries, and services is an important strategy to reduce energy service demand to levels that allow the steep reduction of greenhouse gases, and a full fledged switch of energy systems to a renewable basis. Yet, technological efficiency improvements may generate so-called rebound effects, which may ‘eat up’ parts of the technical savings potential. This article provides a comprehensive review of existing research on these effects, raises critiques, and points out open questions. It introduces micro-economic rebound effect and suggests extending consumer-side analysis to incorporate potential ‘psychological rebound effects.’ It then discusses meso-economic rebound effects, i.e. producer-side and market-level rebounds, which so far have achieved little attention in the literature. Finally, the article critically reviews evidence for macro-economic rebound effects as energy efficiency-induced economic growth impacts. For all three categories, the article summarizes assessments of their potential quantitative scope, while pointing out remaining methodological weaknesses and open questions. As a rough “rule of thumb”, in the long term and on gross average, only half the technical savings potential of across-the-board efficiency improvements may actually be achieved in the real world. Policies that aim at cutting energy service demand to sustainable levels are well advised to take due note of detrimental behavioral and economic growth impacts, and should foster policies and measures that can contain them.
New policy goals are explicitly guiding the future grid toward greater energy equity. At the same time, policy goals also guide the grid toward decarbonization and resilience, while maintaining cost, security, and reliability cornerstone requirements. In conclusion, these pressures create a dilemma: moving urgently to address climate change and respond to energy disruptions, but also slowly to engage communities on the climate frontlines in earnest.
If goals set under the Paris Agreement are met, the world may hold warming well below 2 degrees C (1); however, parties are not on track to deliver these commitments (2), increasing focus on policy implementation to close the gap between ambition and action. Recently, the US government passed its most prominent piece of climate legislation to date - the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 (IRA) - designed to invest in a wide range of programs that, among other provisions, incentivize clean energy and carbon management, encourage electrification and efficiency measures, reduce methane emissions, promote domestic supply chains, and address environmental justice concerns (3). IRA's scope and complexity make modeling important to understand impacts on emissions and energy systems. We leverage results from nine independent, state-of-the-art models to examine potential implications of key IRA provisions, showing economy-wide emissions reductions between 43 and 48% below 2005 levels by 2035.
This article presents a critical assessment of 40 years of research that may be brought under the umbrella of energy efficiency, spanning different aggregations and domains—from individual producing and consuming agents to economy-wide effects to the role of innovation to the influence of policy. After 40 years of research, energy efficiency initiatives are generally perceived as highly effective. Innovation has contributed to lowering energy technology costs and increasing energy productivity. Energy efficiency programs in many cases have reduced energy use per unit of economic output and have been associated with net improvements in welfare, emission reductions, or both. Rebound effects at the macro level still warrant careful policy attention, as they may be nontrivial. Complexity of energy efficiency dynamics calls for further methodological and empirical advances, multidisciplinary approaches, and granular data at the service level for research in this field to be of greatest societal benefit.
The Sandia National Laboratories, California (SNL/CA) Environmental Management System (EMS) Program Manual documents the elements of the site EMS Program. The SNL/CA EMS Program conforms to the International Standard on Environmental Management Systems, ISO 14001:2004and Department of Energy (DOE) Order 436.1. Sandia National Laboratories, California (SNL/CA) has maintained functional environmental programs to assist with regulatory compliance for more than 30 years. During 2005, these existing programs were rolled into a formal environmental management system (EMS) that expands beyond the traditional compliance focus to managing and improving environmental performance and stewardship practices for all site activities. An EMS is a set of inter-related elements that represent a continuing cycle of planning, implementing, evaluating, and improving processes and actions undertaken to achieve environmental policy and goals. The SNL/CA EMS Program conforms to the International Standard for Environmental Management Systems, ISO 14001:2004 (ISO 2004). The site first received ISO 14001 certification in September 2006 and recertification in 2009. SNL/CA's EMS Program is applicable to the Sandia, Livermore site only. Although SNL/CA operates as one organizational division of the overall Sandia National Laboratories, the EMS Program is site-specific, with site-specific objectives and targets. SNL/CA (Division 8000) benefits from the organizational structure as it provides corporate level policies, procedures, and standards, and established processes that connect to and support elements of the SNL/CA EMS Program. Additionally, SNL/CA's EMS Program benefits from two corporate functional programs (Facilities Energy and Water Resource Management and Fleet Services programs) that maintain responsibility for energy management and fleet services for all Sandia locations. Each EMS element is further enhanced with site-specific processes and standards. Division 8000 has several groups operating at Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico (SNL/NM). Although these groups, from an organizational perspective, are part of Division 8000, they are managed locally and fall under the environmental requirements specific to their New Mexico location. The New Mexico groups in Division 8000 follow the corporate EMS Program for New Mexico operations.
Currently, 29 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico have instituted a renewable portfolio standard (RPS). An RPS sets a minimum threshold for how much renewable energy must be generated in a given year. Each state policy is unique, varying in percentage targets, timetables, and eligible resources. This paper examines state experience with implementing renewable portfolio standards that include energy efficiency, thermal resources, and non-renewable energy and explores compliance experience, costs, and how states evaluate, measure, and verify energy efficiency and convert thermal energy. It aims to gain insights from the experience of states for possible federal clean energy policy as well as to share experience and lessons for state RPS implementation.
The Clean Energy Solutions Center helps governments, advisors, and analysts create policies and programs that advance the deployment of clean energy technologies. The Solutions Center is an initiative of the Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM), a global forum to share best practices and promote policies and programs that encourage and facilitate the transition to a global clean energy economy, and UN-Energy, the United Nations' interagency mechanism to scale-up global clean energy use.
This paper defines the principles of wheeling (i.e., transmission) tariffs and renewable energy (RE) banking provisions and their role in RE deployment in countries with plans for large-scale RE. It reviews experiences to date in the United States, Mexico, and India and discusses key policy and regulatory considerations for devising more effective wheeling and/or banking provisions for countries with ambitious RE deployment targets. The paper addresses the challenges of competing needs of stakeholders, especially those of RE generators, distribution utilities, and transmission network owners and operators. The importance of wheeling and banking and their effectiveness for financial viability of RE deployment is also explored. This paper aims to benefit policymakers and regulators as well as key renewable energy stakeholders. Key lessons for regulators include: creating long-term wheeling and banking policy certainty, considering incentivizing RE through discounted transmission access, and assessing the cost implications of such discounts, as well as expanding access to renewable energy customers.
Freight transportation demand is projected to grow to 27.5 billion tons in 2040, and by extrapolation, to nearly 30.2 billion tons in 2050, requiring ever-greater amounts of energy. This report describes the current and future demand for freight transportation in terms of tons and ton-miles of commodities moved by truck, rail, water, pipeline, and air freight carriers. It outlines the economic, logistics, transportation, and policy and regulatory factors that shape freight demand; the possible trends and 2050 outlook for these factors, and their anticipated effect on freight demand and related energy use. After describing federal policy actions that could influence freight demand, the report then summarizes the available analytical models for forecasting freight demand, and identifies possible areas for future action.
Since 2014, the installed solar capacity in South Carolina (SC) has mushroomed from 5.5 megawatts to more than 354 megawatts today. Concurrently, the number of customer-sited, load-centered solar generation was expected to grow from less than 600 statewide to as many over 10,000 today. This growth was the direct result of a landmark state policy initiative, Act 236, passed by the SC General Assembly and signed into law by the Governor in June of 2014. Local policy makers in SC were ill-equipped to handle the onslaught of solar permitting and zoning requests expected by 2021. Similarly, the state’s building inspectors, first responders, and tax assessors know little about photovoltaic (PV) technology and best practices. Finally, SC’s workforce and workforce trainers were underprepared to benefit from the tremendous opportunity created by the passage of Act 236. Each of these deficits in knowledge of and preparedness for solar PV translated into higher “soft costs” of installed solar PV in SC. The Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL), together with almost a dozen electricity stakeholders in the Southeast, has studied the ability of Act 236 to serve as replicable model for solar PV cost reduction. In 2015, this study began with a focus on the effects of Act 236 to offer a unique perspective and understanding of the actual impact of rapidly integrating solar energy into the electric grid. This study would analyze the impact of starting at a solar PV penetration of 0.1% and increasing to over 2%, while expanding access, developing regional specific training and educational materials, and developing datasets to support expanding solar markets. Through targeted tracking and analysis, the team developed a baseline of the current market, identified the major obstacles in soft cost reduction, and cooperatively developed stakeholder-centric strategies. This work has enabled us to directly track and report on the growth and effects of recently enacted solar legislation on the industry. This report marks the final in a series of reports examining the effects of Act 236 on the solar economy in SC since 2014.
State energy planning offers an opportunity for states to develop a vision of their energy future. States that include energy efficiency policies and programs in their energy plans are well-positioned to develop programs that support energy policies that increase energy affordability, reliability, and resiliency. The two most cited goals of the forty states with active energy plans as of 2017 are to: (1) ensure a reliable supply of energy and (2) manage costs so energy is affordable for businesses and residents. Energy efficiency is an important strategy for achieving both goals. To explore these areas fully, states may also wish to update or build on their existing state energy plans. States may want to consider the use of enhanced stakeholder engagement experts and/or modeling approaches described in this guide. Energy planning teams–often led by state energy offices–should also consider the use of metrics or other approaches to track implementation progress over time. States may wish to use the examples, plans, and resources referenced as they develop their own unique energy plans.