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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,765 records · Page 98
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2012

QSAR model for human pregnane X receptor (PXR) binding: Screening of environmental chemicals and correlations with genotoxicity, endocrine disruption and teratogenicity

The pregnane X receptor (PXR) has a key role in regulating the metabolism and transport of structurally diverse endogenous and exogenous compounds. Activation of PXR has the potential to initiate adverse effects, causing drug–drug interactions, and perturbing normal physiological functions. Therefore, identification of PXR ligands would be valuable information for pharmaceutical and toxicological research. In the present study, we developed a quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) model for the identification of PXR ligands using data based on a human PXR binding assay. A total of 631 molecules, representing a variety of chemical structures, constituted the training set of the model. Cross-validation of the model showed a sensitivity of 82%, a specificity of 85%, and a concordance of 84%. The developed model provided knowledge about molecular descriptors that may influence the binding of molecules to PXR. The model was used to screen a large inventory of environmental chemicals, of which 47% was found to be within domain of the model. Approximately 35% of the chemicals within domain were predicted to be PXR ligands. The predicted PXR ligands were found to be overrepresented among chemicals predicted to cause adverse effects, such as genotoxicity, teratogenicity, estrogen receptor activation and androgen receptor antagonism compared to chemicals not causing these effects. The developed model may be useful as a tool for predicting potential PXR ligands and for providing mechanistic information of toxic effects of chemicals. -- Highlights: ► Global QSAR model for the identification of PXR ligands was developed. ► Molecular descriptors that may influence PXR binding were identified. ► 35% of a large set of environmental chemicals were predicted to be PXR ligands. ► Predicted PXR binding was associated with various adverse effects.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2011

Continuous distribution model for the investigation of complex molecular architectures near interfaces with scattering techniques

Biological membranes are composed of a thermally disordered lipid matrix and therefore require non-crystallographic scattering approaches for structural characterization with x-rays or neutrons. Here we develop a continuous distribution (CD) model to refine neutron or x-ray reflectivity data from complex architectures of organic molecules. The new model is a flexible implementation of the composition-space refinement of interfacial structures to constrain the resulting scattering length density profiles. We show this model increases the precision with which molecular components may be localized within a sample, with a minimal use of free model parameters. We validate the new model by parameterizing all-atom molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of bilayers and by evaluating the neutron reflectivity of a phospholipid bilayer physisorbed to a solid support. The determination of the structural arrangement of a sparsely-tethered bilayer lipid membrane (stBLM) comprised of a multi-component phospholipid bilayer anchored to a gold substrate by a thiolated oligo(ethylene oxide) linker is also demonstrated. From the model we extract the bilayer composition and density of tether points, information which was previously inaccessible for stBLM systems. The new modeling strategy has been implemented into the ga lowbar refl reflectivity data evaluation suite, available through the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) Center for Neutron Research (NCNR).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Energy transfer and scale dynamics in 2D and 3D laser-driven jets

We demonstrate a methodology for diagnosing the multiscale dynamics and energy transfer in complex HED flows with realistic driving and boundary conditions. The approach separates incompressible, compressible, and baropycnal contributions to energy scale-transfer and quantifies the direction of these transfers in (generalized) wavenumber space. We use this to compare the kinetic energy (KE) transfer across scales in simulations of 2D axisymmetric vs fully 3D laser-driven plasma jets. Using the FLASH code, we model a turbulent jet ablated from an aluminum cone target in the configuration outlined. We show that, in addition to its well known bias for underestimating hydrodynamic instability growth, 2D modeling suffers from significant spurious energization of the bulk flow by a turbulent upscale cascade. In 2D, this arises as vorticity and strain from instabilities near the jet's leading edge transfer KE upscale, sustaining a coherent circulation that helps propel the axisymmetric jet farther (⁠ ≈25% by 3.5 ns) and helps keep it collimated. In 3D, the coherent circulation and upscale KE transfer are absent. Here, the methodology presented here may also help with inter-model comparison and validation, including future modeling efforts to alleviate some of the 2D hydrodynamic artifacts highlighted in this study.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

A NEW THREE-DIMENSIONAL SOLAR WIND MODEL IN SPHERICAL COORDINATES WITH A SIX-COMPONENT GRID

In this paper, we introduce a new three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamics numerical model to simulate the steady state ambient solar wind from the solar surface to 215 R {sub s} or beyond, and the model adopts a splitting finite-volume scheme based on a six-component grid system in spherical coordinates. By splitting the magnetohydrodynamics equations into a fluid part and a magnetic part, a finite volume method can be used for the fluid part and a constrained-transport method able to maintain the divergence-free constraint on the magnetic field can be used for the magnetic induction part. This new second-order model in space and time is validated when modeling the large-scale structure of the solar wind. The numerical results for Carrington rotation 2064 show its ability to produce structured solar wind in agreement with observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-machine validation of plasma initiation modelling and prospects for future devices: Predicting plasma initiation using only hardware design and control room input data

This paper reports on the generic prediction capability of full electromagnetic plasma initiation modelling with DYON, which was carried out for the first time in fusion research by the joint modelling of the International Tokamak Physics Activity—Integrating Operation Scenario group. The following devices were included in the experiment database: VEST (spherical torus, copper coils, Stainless steel wall, R/a = 0.3 m/0.2 m, V v = 3.7 m 3 ), MAST-U (spherical torus, copper coils, C wall, R/a = 0.7 m/0.5 m, V v = 55 m 3 ), EAST (conventional tokamak, superconducting coils, metallic wall, R/a = 1.85 m/0.5 m, V v = 38 m 3 ), DIII-D (conventional tokamak, copper coils, C wall, R/a = 1.67 m/0.65 m, V v = 35 m 3 ), and KSTAR (conventional tokamak, superconducting coils, C wall, R/a = 1.8 m/0.5 m, V v = 55 m 3 ). Despite the different hardware features of the devices, the required operating spaces of the loop voltage induction and prefill gas pressure for inductive plasma initiation in each device were successfully reproduced by the predictive simulations with DYON using only the individual hardware design and the control room input data for each discharge. This successful validation across multiple machines demonstrates that the full electromagnetic DYON modelling can capture the essential physics of inductive plasma initiation. The simulation settings commonly employed for all modelling and the modifications necessary to account for the discrepancies between individual devices are reported. Predictions for ITER based on the multi-machine validation indicate that a wide range of prefill gas pressures exists for the Townsend breakdown and the plasma burn-through (0.01–1.5 mPa).

DYON↗
DOE OSTI2021

High-Fidelity Models and Fast EMT Simulation Algorithms for Isolated Multi-port Autonomous Reconfigurable Solar power plant (MARS)

The integration of hybrid photovoltaic (PV) and energy storage system (ESS) based plants has become a promising way of solving the intermittency of PV plants and providing frequency support to the power grid. The multi-port autonomous reconfigurable solar power plant (MARS) can integrate the PV systems and ESSs to an ac grid and dc lines. The proposed isolated MARS incorporates an isolated converter that connects to the PV arrays and is based on the dual active bridge (DAB) converter. The high frequency switching in the DAB and the means to control the DAB converter using delays between switching signals lead to the need for a small timestep in simulations. Moreover, several hundreds of modules that include a DAB converter are present in the MARS. The small timestep and the presence of several hundreds of modules lead to a significant rise in the overall simulation time. To address this issue, simulation algorithms like numerical stiffness-based hybrid discretization and the hysteresis relaxation technique are applied to the switched system model of isolated MARS. Additionally, an event-driven interpolating method is introduced to help increase the minimum timestep to simulate the conventional DAB converter model while maintaining high accuracy in the simulation results. The developed model is validated by comparison with its reference model built in the PSCAD/EMTDC and MATLAB software environments using library components.

Xia, Qian↗
DOE OSTI2020

toughio v1.2.2

TOUGH is a widely used general purpose numerical simulator designed for fluid and heat flows of multiphase, multicomponent fluid mixtures in porous and fractured media, which has been applied to many real-world problems such as underground geological storage, geothermal reservoir engineering or nuclear waste disposal, to name a few. `toughio` is a lightweight, object-oriented and vectorized Python library that aims to provide user-friendly routines to facilitate pre- and post-processing of a TOUGH simulation. Although its primary target is the latest version TOUGH3, `toughio` can also be used to read/write TOUGH2 input/output files. Currently, to the best of our knowledge, only PyTOUGH offers an exhaustive number of features to carry out a complete TOUGH simulation using a scripting language. `toughio` and PyTOUGH share the same objectives, yet with different approaches and philosophies. On the one hand, a PyTOUGH mesh is represented as a MULGRAPH geometry where elements can be unstructured horizontally but only layered vertically. It also checks that the model parameters are valid to ensure that a TOUGH simulation runs smoothly. On the other hand, although it provides basic meshing features, `toughio` mostly relies on common third-party softwares (e.g. Abaqus, FLAC3D, Gmsh, LaGriT) to generate the mesh by importing and converting it to a TOUGH mesh, which also conveniently facilitates the coupling of TOUGH with any other simulator that also supports the same mesh formats. Besides, `toughio` is designed to be just a TOUGH input and output file reader/writer. It assumes that the user knows what he is doing and does not verify the validity of the model parameters (`toughio` does verify the functional arguments).

Luu, Keurfon↗
DOE OSTI2013

Is Dynamic Autocrine Insulin Signaling Possible? A Mathematical Model Predicts Picomolar Concentrations of Extracellular Monomeric Insulin within Human Pancreatic Islets

Insulin signaling is essential for β-cell survival and proliferation in vivo. Insulin also has potent mitogenic and anti-apoptotic actions on cultured β-cells, with maximum effect in the high picomolar range and diminishing effect at high nanomolar doses. In order to understand whether these effects of insulin are constitutive or can be subjected to physiological modulation, it is essential to estimate the extracellular concentration of monomeric insulin within an intact islet. Unfortunately, the in vivo concentration of insulin monomers within the islet cannot be measured directly with current technology. Here, we present the first mathematical model designed to estimate the levels of monomeric insulin within the islet extracellular space. Insulin is released as insoluble crystals that exhibit a delayed dissociation into hexamers, dimers, and eventually monomers, which only then can act as signaling ligands. The rates at which different forms of insulin dissolve in vivo have been estimated from studies of peripheral insulin injection sites. We used this and other information to formulate a mathematical model to estimate the local insulin concentration within a single islet as a function of glucose. Model parameters were estimated from existing literature. Components of the model were validated using experimental data, if available. Model analysis predicted that the majority of monomeric insulin in the islet is that which has been returned from the periphery, and the concentration of intra-islet monomeric insulin varies from β50–300 pM when glucose is in the physiological range. Thus, our results suggest that the local concentration of monomeric insulin within the islet is in the picomolar ‘sweet spot’ range of insulin doses that activate the insulin receptor and have the most potent effects on β-cells in vitro. Together with experimental data, these estimations support the concept that autocrine/paracrine insulin signalling within the islet is dynamic, rather than constitutive and saturated.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Deciding Between an X-Ray and 137Cs Irradiator – It’s Not Just About Energy Spectra

Irradiators utilizing radioactive cesium-137 or cobalt-60 have been used for medical applications for many decades. This includes the irradiation of much of the nation’s blood supply, and radiation biology research. In 2005, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission was assigned to evaluate and prevent the misuse of radioactive materials with malicious intentions, with gamma-ray sources being high on the list. Licensees who possessed higher quantities of radioactive material of concern were required to set up increased security controls such as constant surveillance, controlled access, personnel background checks, and other security controls. As a result of introducing such regulations, and problems with disposing of high activity sources, many users of gamma-ray sources started to look into alternative technologies to replace their gamma-ray irradiators – the main alternative being an X-ray irradiator. To make an educated decision on whether a particular type of X-ray irradiator is equivalent to a particular type of cesium-137 irradiator for specific applications, one has to rely on relevant published comparison studies from other researchers, or perform the comparison studies on their own. This publication focuses on the authors’ technical performance comparison of two cesium-137 irradiator models and two X-ray irradiator models, for the purpose of determining whether the X-ray irradiator models could validly replace the cesium-137 irradiator models for certain applications. Utilizing 47 gram and 120 gram tissue-equivalent rodent dosimetry phantoms, our results indicate that, depending upon the user’s dose uncertainty budget and maximum size of specimens to be irradiated, the Model RS2000 160 kVp X-ray irradiator, Model XRAD-160 X-ray irradiator, or Model XRAD-320 X-ray irradiator, could successfully replace a cesium-137 irradiator. It is expected such equivalency could be extrapolated to other irradiated specimens of known sizes and density. Results also reveal that differences in inherent source geometry, field geometry and irradiation geometry can counter some of the influence due to differences in energy spectrum. It is hoped that this publication can be used as a guide for other similar studies, providing investigators guidance on important details that can make the difference between strong and weak comparison conclusions.

Cs-137 irradiator, X-ray Irradiator, self-containe↗
DOE OSTI2011

DWPF SIMULANT CPC STUDIES FOR SB7B

Lab-scale DWPF simulations of Sludge Batch 7b (SB7b) processing were performed. Testing was performed at the Savannah River National Laboratory - Aiken County Technology Laboratory (SRNL-ACTL). The primary goal of the simulations was to define a likely operating window for acid stoichiometry for the DWPF Sludge Receipt and Adjustment Tank (SRAT). In addition, the testing established conditions for the SRNL Shielded Cells qualification simulation of SB7b-Tank 40 blend, supported validation of the current glass redox model, and validated the coupled process flowsheet at the nominal acid stoichiometry. An acid window of 105-140% by the Koopman minimum acid (KMA) equation (107-142% DWPF Hsu equation) worked for the sludge-only flowsheet. Nitrite was present in the SRAT product for the 105% KMA run at 366 mg/kg, while SME cycle hydrogen reached 94% of the DWPF Slurry Mix Evaporator (SME) cycle limit in the 140% KMA run. The window was determined for sludge with added caustic (0.28M additional base, or roughly 12,000 gallons 50% NaOH to 820,000 gallons waste slurry). A suitable processing window appears to be 107-130% DWPF acid equation for sludge-only processing allowing some conservatism for the mapping of lab-scale simulant data to full-scale real waste processing including potentially non-conservative noble metal and mercury concentrations. This window should be usable with or without the addition of up to 7,000 gallons of caustic to the batch. The window could potentially be wider if caustic is not added to SB7b. It is recommended that DWPF begin processing SB7b at 115% stoichiometry using the current DWPF equation. The factor could be increased if necessary, but changes should be made with caution and in small increments. DWPF should not concentrate past 48 wt.% total solids in the SME cycle if moderate hydrogen generation is occurring simultaneously. The coupled flowsheet simulation made more hydrogen in the SRAT and SME cycles than the sludge-only run with the same acid stoichiometric factor. The slow acid addition in MCU seemed to alter the reactions that consumed the small excess acid present such that hydrogen generation was promoted relative to sludge-only processing. The coupled test reached higher wt.% total solids, and this likely contributed to the SME cycle hydrogen limit being exceeded at 110% KMA. It is clear from the trends in the SME processing GC data, however, that the frit slurry formic acid contributed to driving the hydrogen generation rate above the SME cycle limit. Hydrogen generation rates after the second frit addition generally exceeded those after the first frit addition. SRAT formate loss increased with increasing acid stoichiometry (15% to 35%). A substantial nitrate gain which was observed to have occurred after acid addition (and nitrite destruction) was reversed to a net nitrate loss in runs with higher acid stoichiometry (nitrate in SRAT product less than sum of sludge nitrate and added nitric acid). Increased ammonium ion formation was also indicated in the runs with nitrate loss. Oxalate loss on the order 20% was indicated in three of the four acid stoichiometry runs and in the coupled flowsheet run. The minimum acid stoichiometry run had no indicated loss. The losses were of the same order as the official analytical uncertainty of the oxalate concentration measurement, but were not randomly distributed about zero loss, so some actual loss was likely occurring. Based on the entire set of SB7b test data, it is recommended that DWPF avoid concentrating additional sludge solids in single SRAT batches to limit the concentrations of noble metals to SB7a processing levels (on a grams noble metal per SRAT batch basis). It is also recommended that DWPF drop the formic acid addition that accompanies the process frit 418 additions, since SME cycle data showed considerable catalytic activity for hydrogen generation from this additional acid (about 5% increase in stoichiometry occurred from the frit formic acid). Frit 418 also does not appear to need formic acid addition to prevent gel formation in the frit slurry. Simulant processing was successful using 100 ppm of 747 antifoam added prior to nitric acid instead of 200 ppm. This is a potential area for DWPF to cut antifoam usage in any future test program. An additional 100 ppm was added before formic acid addition. Foaming during formic acid addition was not observed. No build-up of oily or waxy material was observed in the off-gas equipment. Lab-scale mercury stripping behavior was similar to SB6 and SB7a. More mercury was unaccounted for as the acid stoichiometry increased.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2016

Evolution in Cloud Population Statistics of the MJO: From AMIE Field Observations to Global Cloud-Permiting Models

Motivated by the success of the AMIE/DYNAMO field campaign, which collected unprecedented observations of cloud and precipitation from the tropical Indian Ocean in Octber 2011 – March 2012, this project explored how such observations can be applied to assist the development of global cloud-permitting models through evaluating and correcting model biases in cloud statistics. The main accomplishment of this project were made in four categories: generating observational products for model evaluation, using AMIE/DYNAMO observations to validate global model simulations, using AMIE/DYNAMO observations in numerical studies of cloud-permitting models, and providing leadership in the field. Results from this project provide valuable information for building a seamless bridge between DOE ASR program’s component on process level understanding of cloud processes in the tropics and RGCM focus on global variability and regional extremes. In particular, experience gained from this project would be directly applicable to evaluation and improvements of ACME, especially as it transitions to a non-hydrostatic variable resolution model.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Radionuclide Screening Analysis and Transport Parameters for Pahute Mesa Detonations, Nevada National Security Site

A “screening analysis” is implemented at Pahute Mesa (PM), Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), to determine subsets of the 43 radionuclides listed in the radionuclide inventory of Finnegan et al. (2016) that are of relevance or potential relevance to the hydrologic source term (HST) for assessment of radionuclide transport in groundwater. Consideration is added to how levels of contamination are defined and whether any other radionuclides not in the inventory are relevant to the HST. A model is developed to estimate a range of possible source concentrations in groundwater that account for uncertainty in partitioning into melt glass and sorption into surrounding rock of the exchange zone for the 82 PM underground nuclear tests detonated in vertical shafts. The model also accounts for the varied hydrogeochemical settings. Transport parameters needed for the screening model calculations are developed from databases for hydrogeologic units, chemistry, mineralogy, fracture spacing, fracture aperture, fracture openness, matrix porosity, bulk density, saturation, and alteration. Of key importance is consideration of diagenetic zonation of the mineralogy related to hydrothermal alteration. The screening analysis compares model results with available groundwater radiochemistry data. Consistency between screening model results and available data helps validate the model for application to all 43 radionuclides, most of which have no measurements or only non-detect measurements of concentration in groundwater. The screening analysis determines that ten radionuclides – tritium, Sr-90, I-129, Cs-137, U-232, U-233, U-234, U-238, and the total of Pu-239 and Pu-240 are relevant to the HST. Determination of relevance is primarily based on data and/or model results indicating source concentration exceeding a maximum contaminant level (MCL) out to 100 years since the time of detonation. U-238 is relevant to assessment of contamination relative to MCLs for uranium and gross alpha particle activity. Five other radionuclides – C-14, Cl-36, Tc-99, Np-237, and Pu-238 – are determined potentially relevant to the HST based on a 0.1 MCL threshold. The screening analysis recommends additional attention to the natural daughter radionuclides of the uranium series (U-238) and thorium series (Th-232) decay chains, particularly Ra-226 and Ra-228, that were not included the inventory.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗
DOE OSTI2023

Formal Experimentation and Analysis of Handheld RFID Readers as a Tool for Nuclear Material Accounting

Commercial, off-the-shelf Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) systems have been successfully deployed for inventory tracking in numerous industries, but their viability in the tracking of complex environments containing nuclear material is less understood. Of primary interest in this setting is a RFID tracking system for nuclear material accounting which can reliably identify as many tags as possible with high accuracy, while also reducing an operator’s exposure to radiation. In this work, we develop a formal statistical approach to identify relevant handheld RFID reader settings which optimize tagging performance. To achieve this goal, we design a full factorial split-plot experiment for a static shelf configuration scene with 50 randomly placed nuclear material containers affixed with RFID tags. We use Bayesian inference to fit a second-order response surface model which expresses the probability of a successful match for each container as a function of the experimental factors. Such effects are allowed to vary across individual containers and the containers’ population in its entirety to estimate overall effects. Uncertainties of estimates and predictions are quantified via their corresponding posterior distributions. Following extensive model checking and validation, the fitted model is used to identify experimental factors which maximize matching probabilities at both the container-level and for the full shelf configuration scene. We also analyze sensitivity of performance to relevant factors.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Progress Report on Model Development for Aerosol Transport through Divergent Cracks Paths

This report summarizes the progress in developing a phenomenological model of aerosol transport, deposition, and plugging through microchannels. The purpose of this effort is to introduce to a user community—involving researchers, regulators, and industry—a generic, reliable numerical model for the prediction of aerosol transport while accounting for potential deposition and plugging of the leak paths to model spent nuclear fuel (SNF) release from postulated Stress Corrosion Cracks in canisters under storage or transportation. Current work focuses on expanding the model to predict aerosol (and gas) flow through complex microchannel (nozzle) geometries in addition to the rectangular and cylindrical geometries, as we approach more realistic Stress Corrosion Crack conditions. In this regard, a divergent nozzle geometry, used at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) for testing aerosol release and retention (Durbin et al. 2021), was added to the model. The model was then validated with blowdown data for the particular microchannel, from experiments conducted at SNL. The report also presents preliminary non-benchmarked aerosol penetration fraction and mass flow rate for a monodisperse 10-micron (AED) particle concentration of 1.7e-08 kg/m 3 being released through the divergent microchannel geometry from the SNL’s aerosol experimental tank setup.Future work will involve validating the aerosol model and updating the model’s Graphical User Interface (GUI) to include the divergent nozzle geometry. This is expected to help stakeholders perform quick and easy first principles calculations without needing to understand the underlying MATLAB script.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Flux balance modeling to predict bacterial survival during pulsed-activity events

Abstract. Desert biological soil crusts (BSCs) are cyanobacteria-dominated surface soil microbial communities common to plant interspaces in arid environments. The capability to significantly dampen their metabolism allows them to exist for extended periods in a desiccated dormant state that is highly robust to environmental stresses. However, within minutes of wetting, metabolic functions reboot, maximizing activity during infrequent permissive periods. Microcoleus vaginatus, a primary producer within the crust ecosystem and an early colonizer, initiates crust formation by binding particles in the upper layer of soil via exopolysaccharides, making microbial dominated biological soil crusts highly dependent on the viability of this organism. Previous studies have suggested that biopolymers play a central role in the survival of this organism by powering resuscitation, rapidly forming compatible solutes, and fueling metabolic activity in dark, hydrated conditions. To elucidate the mechanism of this phenomenon and provide a basis for future modeling of BSCs, we developed a manually curated, genome-scale metabolic model of Microcoleus vaginatus (iNJ1153). To validate this model, gas chromatography–mass spectroscopy (GC–MS) and liquid chromatography–mass spectroscopy (LC–MS) were used to characterize the rate of biopolymer accumulation and depletion in in hydrated Microcoleus vaginatus under light and dark conditions. Constraint-based flux balance analysis showed agreement between model predictions and experimental reaction fluxes. A significant amount of consumed carbon and light energy is invested into storage molecules glycogen and polyphosphate, while β-polyhydroxybutyrate may function as a secondary resource. Pseudo-steady-state modeling suggests that glycogen, the primary carbon source with the fastest depletion rate, will be exhausted if M. vaginatus experiences dark wetting events 4 times longer than light wetting events.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Statistical Validation of Normal Tissue Complication Probability Models

Purpose: To investigate the applicability and value of double cross-validation and permutation tests as established statistical approaches in the validation of normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models. Methods and Materials: A penalized regression method, LASSO (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator), was used to build NTCP models for xerostomia after radiation therapy treatment of head-and-neck cancer. Model assessment was based on the likelihood function and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results: Repeated double cross-validation showed the uncertainty and instability of the NTCP models and indicated that the statistical significance of model performance can be obtained by permutation testing. Conclusion: Repeated double cross-validation and permutation tests are recommended to validate NTCP models before clinical use.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2012

Hydrodynamic Modeling Analysis of Tidal Wetland Restoration in Snohomish River, Washington

To re-establish the intertidal wetlands with full tidal interaction and improve salmonid rearing habitat in the Lower Snohomish River estuary, a diked wetland along Union Slough of the Snohomish River was restored by breaching the existing dike and constructing bridges across the breaches. However, post-restoration monitoring indicated that the restored project site could not drain as efficiently as desired. To improve the drainage conditions at the restoration site during low tides, a modeling study was conducted to evaluate additional restoration scenarios and to provide recommendations for finish-grade ground elevations to achieve the desired drainage. To accurately simulate the drainage of the project site, an unstructured-grid hydrodynamic model with fine-grid resolution down to a few meters was used in this study. The model was first validated with observed water level data collected in the project site and then applied to assess the feasibility of different proposed restoration scenarios. A spatial varying bottom roughness option in the model is also implemented to better represent the high roughness due to the presence of dense vegetation in the project site. The methodology, error statistics of model validation and uncertainty of the modeling analysis are presented and discussed.

Yang, Zhaoqing↗