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Bayesian Analysis of TRISO Fuel: Quantifying Model Inadequacy, Incorporating Lower-Length-Scale Effects, and Developing Parallel Active Learning Capabilities

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aims to develop predictive capabilities by applying computational methods to the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel-cycle systems. This program has been providing engineering-scale support for the continued development of BISON, a high-fidelity, high-resolution fuel performance tool. Fuel behavior in nuclear reactors is governed by a complex network of mechanisms that interact with various other physics aspects in the reactor system. Any model developed to represent fuel behavior will likely be idealized, resulting in uncertainties when comparing their predictions against the observed data. In Fiscal Year (FY)-23, we initiated the Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) work by using Bayesian methods to establish a level of model trustworthiness and further improve it, with a particular emphasis on TRI-Structural isOtropic (TRISO) nuclear fuel. This year, we further expanded on that UQ work by investigating an approach to quantifying model inadequacy and accounting for lower-length scale (LLS) effects in TRISO silver (Ag) release modeling. Furthermore, we are implementing parallel active learning capabilities to reduce the computational cost (i.e., required computational resources and elapsed time) of performing UQ. Specifically, we utilized The Kennedy O’Hagan framework for Bayesian uncertainty quantification (KOH) to account for model inadequacy in TRISO Ag release predictions made by BISON. The KOH framework represents an improvement over the standard Bayesian framework used in FY-23. Explicitly accounting for model inadequacy in the Bayesian framework helps establish the level of experimental noise uncertainty in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) data. We compared the inverse UQ results obtained from both the standard Bayesian and KOH frameworks in light of the AGR-2/3/4 data, and also compared the predictive UQ results obtained from these two frameworks in light of the AGR-1 data. Next, we investigated the impact of considering LLS effects in the Ag release simulations. We developed an expanded database of LLS simulated effective diffusivities for Ag, covering a wide range of microstructures and temperatures. Using this database, we developed a framework for incorporating LLS effects into the engineering-scale Ag release UQ. We developed both parametric and non-parametric approaches for bridging the length scales. We then investigated the inverse UQ results in light of the AGR-2/3/4 data and the predictive UQ results in light of the AGR-1 data, and compared the LLS-informed approach and the Arrhenius equation, which does not include microstructure information. Finally, we discussed implementing parallel active learning capabilities in the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE)/BISON to reduce the computational cost (i.e., computational resources and elapsed time) of Bayesian UQ. For verification purposes, we first tested these new capabil ities on a species interaction problem. We then demonstrated them on the TRISO Ag release application, showing that parallel active learning capabilities can enhance the accuracy of UQ while also substantially reducing the computational cost in comparison to the reference methods developed in FY-23.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Rapid 3D nanoscale coherent imaging via physics-aware deep learning

Phase retrieval, the problem of recovering lost phase information from measured intensity alone, is an inverse problem that is widely faced in various imaging modalities ranging from astronomy to nanoscale imaging. The current process of phase recovery is iterative in nature. As a result, the image formation is time consuming and computationally expensive, precluding real-time imaging. Here, we use 3D nanoscale X-ray imaging as a representative example to develop a deep learning model to address this phase retrieval problem. We introduce 3D-CDI-NN, a deep convolutional neural network and differential programing framework trained to predict 3D structure and strain, solely from input 3D X-ray coherent scattering data. Our networks are designed to be “physics-aware” in multiple aspects; in that the physics of the X-ray scattering process is explicitly enforced in the training of the network, and the training data are drawn from atomistic simulations that are representative of the physics of the material. We further refine the neural network prediction through a physics-based optimization procedure to enable maximum accuracy at lowest computational cost. 3D-CDI-NN can invert a 3D coherent diffraction pattern to real-space structure and strain hundreds of times faster than traditional iterative phase retrieval methods. Our integrated machine learning and differential programing solution to the phase retrieval problem is broadly applicable across inverse problems in other application areas.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

SAM Plug-in Development (Phase I Final Report)

The DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) has created an extensive set of advanced modeling and simulation tools for nuclear engineering analysis. The advanced capabilities of these newer analysis codes require more in-depth training, skills, and knowledge in order to effectively utilize them for the design, analysis, and licensing of advanced nuclear systems and experiments. A high learning curve for inexperienced users may deter organizations from incorporating these tools into their internal processes. This project involved development of a plug-in to the Symbolic Nuclear Analysis Package (SNAP) for the System Analysis Module (SAM) tool. SAM is an advanced system analysis tool for reactor transient analyses being developed at Argonne National Laboratory under the U.S. DOE Office of Nuclear Energy’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. SAM utilizes an object-oriented application framework (MOOSE), and its underlying meshing and finite-element library (libMesh) and linear and non-linear solvers (PETSc), to leverage modern advanced software environments and numerical methods. SNAP provides a highly flexible framework for creating, modifying and documenting input for engineering analysis codes such as SAM as well as extensive functionality for submitting, monitoring, and interacting with the codes through an intuitive graphical user interface (GUI). The common user interface provided by SNAP minimizes the learning curve for engineers starting with a new analysis code and provides an intuitive framework for transitioning between different analysis codes. SNAP provides a powerful but intuitive interface to facilitate access to advanced modeling and simulation tools for inexperienced users. Unlike many “form based” GUI’s, SNAP maps each engineering code’s component input to an internal database which manages all component input parameters along with component interconnections. This level of abstraction permits SNAP to support several advanced capabilities such as renodalization, model validation and consistency checks, embedded documentation, model notebook generation, data ownership and reviewer tracking, and variable assignment for inputs to name a few. SNAP includes a built-in Python interpreter and is interfaced to several commercial and open source packages including CPython, MATLAB/OCTAVE, Microsoft Office, Open Office, and SANDIA’s DAKOTA package which provides Uncertainty Quantification analysis through the SNAP plug-ins. Phase I of this project involved development a fully functional basic SAM plug-in to SNAP. This plug-in provides the ability to import existing models, graphically construct, edit and submit models using SNAP’s extensive functionality.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

JetNet: A Python package for accessing open datasets and benchmarking machine learning methods in high energy physics

JetNet is a Python package that aims to increase accessibility and reproducibility for machinelearning (ML) research in high energy physics (HEP), primarily related to particle jets. Basedon the popular PyTorch ML framework, it provides easy-to-access and standardized interfacesfor multiple heterogeneous HEP datasets and implementations of evaluation metrics, lossfunctions, and more general utilities relevant to HEP.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Case-Based Capture and Reuse of Aerospace Design Rationale

The goal of this project is to apply artificial intelligence techniques to facilitate capture and reuse of aerospace design rationale. The project applies case-based reasoning (CBR) and concept mapping (CMAP) tools to the task of capturing, organizing, and interactively accessing experiences or "cases" encapsulating the methods and rationale underlying expert aerospace design. As stipulated in the award, Indiana University and Ames personnel are collaborating on performance of research and determining the direction of research, to assure that the project focuses on high-value tasks. In the first five months of the project, we have made two visits to Ames Research Center to consult with our NASA collaborators, to learn about the advanced aerospace design tools being developed there, and to identify specific needs for intelligent design support. These meetings identified a number of task areas for applying CBR and concept mapping technology. We jointly selected a first task area to focus on: Acquiring the convergence criteria that experts use to guide the selection of useful data from a set of numerical simulations of high-lift systems. During the first funding period, we developed two software systems. First, we have adapted a CBR system developed at Indiana University into a prototype case-based reasoning shell to capture and retrieve information about design experiences, with the sample task of capturing and reusing experts' intuitive criteria for determining convergence (work conducted at Indiana University). Second, we have also adapted and refined existing concept mapping tools that will be used to clarify and capture the rationale underlying those experiences, to facilitate understanding of the expert's reasoning and guide future reuse of captured information (work conducted at the University of West Florida). The tools we have developed are designed to be the basis for a general framework for facilitating tasks within systems developed by the Advanced Design Technologies Testbed (ADTT) project at ARC. The tenets of our framework are (1) that the systems developed should leverage a designer's knowledge, rather than attempting to replace it; (2) that learning and user feedback must play a central role, so that the system can adapt to how it is used, and (3) that the learning and feedback processes must be as natural and as unobtrusive as possible. In the second funding period we will extend our current work, applying the tools to capturing higher-level design rationale.

Leake, David B.↗

Mixed-Precision S/DGEMM Using the TF32 and TF64 Frameworks on Low-Precision AI Tensor Cores

Using NVIDIA graphics processing units (GPUs) equipped with Tensor Cores has enabled the significant acceleration of general matrix multiplication (GEMM) for applications in machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) and in high-performance computing (HPC) generally. The use of such power-efficient, specialized accelerators can provide a performance increase between 8 × and 20 ×, albeit with a loss in precision. However, a high level of precision is required in many large scientific and HPC applications, and computing in single or double precision is still necessary for many of these applications to maintain accuracy. Fortunately, mixed-precision methods can be employed to maintain a higher level of numerical precision while also taking advantage of the performance increases from computing with lower-precision AI cores. With this in mind, we extend the state of the art by using NVIDIA’s new TF32 framework. This new framework not only burdens some constraints of the previous frameworks, such as costly 32 16-bit castings but also provides an equivalent precision and performance by using a much simpler approach. We also propose a new framework called TF64 that attempts double-precision arithmetic with low-precision Tensor Cores. Although this framework does not exist yet, we validated the correctness of this idea and achieved an equivalent of 64-bit precision on 32-bit hardware.

Valero Lara, Pedro↗

Quantifying Capital Cost Reduction Pathways for Advanced Nuclear Reactors

The framework developed in this study is provided both as an excel sheet (https://inl.gov/content/uploads/2023/11/Nuclear-Reactor-Cost-Reduction-Pathway-Spreadsheet-Tool.xlsx) and a Python (Jupyter) Notebook (link: https://github.com/accert-dev/ACCERT/tree/main/Cost%20Reduction). Capital cost considerations are one of the primary inhibitors to the large-scale deployment of nuclear power plants. While it is widely accepted that first units will likely be expensive and relatively uncompetitive, it is reasonable to expect that subsequent units, built in relative quick succession, will be cheaper as they benefit from the so-called “learning effects”. However, the large degree of uncertainty associated with this parameter renders it challenging for first movers to invest in the first few expensive units. To resolve this impasse, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Advanced Nuclear Liftoff study advocated for the formation of large, committed order books of plants of the same technology to spread the costs across several units and kickstart the nuclear supply chain. The study also advocated best practices for avoiding overruns and keeping reactors on budget. This report builds on these key recommendations by attempting to quantify specific pathways toward cost reduction for nuclear energy. A capital cost estimation framework was built to untangle the effect of learning into a subset of key cost drivers, referred to as “levers”. Collectively, the choice of these levers is intended to reflect the decision-making of high-level stakeholders like plant owners and the government. In addition to the size of the firm orderbook, these levers included (a) cost drivers that are most often attributed to cost overruns such as architect/engineering (A/E) proficiency, construction proficiency, procurement service proficiency, design completion prior to the start of construction, and design maturity, and (b) cost reduction strategies such as modular construction, cross-site standardization, safety classification of the reactor building, and of the balance of plant. Two advanced reactor designs were leveraged as use cases and bottom-up cost estimates made with assumptions consistent with a well-executed first-of-a-kind project (WE-FOAK, i.e., almost no overruns) were used as baselines for the models. Cost correlations were surveyed from the literature to determine the impact of important variables on projected timelines and costs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

pyCRTM: A Python Interface for the Community Radiative Transfer Model

The Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) is a powerful and versatile scalar radiative transfer model for satellite data assimilation and remote sensing applications. It is implemented as an object-oriented Fortran library, enabling flexible code development and optimal runtime performance on clusters. The downsides of the Fortran interface are a steep learning curve for students and the reduced productivity of users that is typical for static compiled languages, in contrast to dynamic interpreted languages like Python. pyCRTM is a new software framework that directly interfaces the CRTM Fortran data structures and procedures in Python, leveraging both the simplicity and ease of use of Python syntax as well as the flexibility arising from the vast contemporary Python ecosystem. The goal of pyCRTM is to lower the barrier of entry for university students to learn and use the CRTM and to boost the productivity of researchers seeking to create new methods in radiative transfer and data assimilation, or seeking to apply the CRTM to study atmospheric phenomena without having to go through the pre-existing complexity of the CRTM Fortran interface.

Python↗

A Data-Driven Framework for Power System Event Type Identification via Safe Semi-Supervised Techniques

Herein this paper investigates the use of phasor measurement unit (PMU) data with deep learning techniques to construct real-time event identification models for transmission networks. Increasing penetration of distributed energy resources represents a great opportunity to achieve decarbonization, as well as challenges in systematic situational awareness. When high-resolution PMU data and sufficient manually recorded event labels are available, the power event identification problem is defined as a statistical classification problem that can be solved by numerous cutting-edge classifiers. However, in real grids, collecting tremendous high-quality event labels is quite expensive. Utilities frequently have a large number of event records without in-depth details (i.e., unlabeled events). To bridge this gap, we propose a novel semi-supervised learning-based method to improve the performance of event classifiers trained with a limited number of labeled events by exploiting the information from massive unlabeled events. In other words, compared to existing data-driven methods, our method requires only a small portion of labeled data to achieve a similar level of accuracy. Meanwhile, this work discusses and addresses the performance degradation caused by class distribution mismatch between the training set and the real applications. Based on the proposed safe learning mechanism, our model does not directly use all unlabeled events during model training, but selectively uses them through a comprehensive evaluation procedure. Numerical studies on a sizable PMU dataset have been used to validate the performance of the proposed method.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Final technical report for DE-SC0022255: Discovering Physically Meaningful Structures from Climate Extreme Data

The past two decades have witnessed natural disasters and extreme weather events that affect millions of people. At the same time, the data volume from high-resolution climate models, satellite, in-situ and ground-based measurements have substantially increased to petabyte scales. These new and readily accessible datasets create the previously missing pipeline required for scientific machine learning (ML) and therefore new opportunities for improved understanding and prediction capability of climate extreme events. This project developed a deep latent variable model framework to discover physically meaningful hidden structures from high-dimensional, spatiotemporal climate extreme data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Regularization by denoising diffusion models for solving inverse PDE problems with application to full waveform inversion

Partial differential equation (PDE)-governed inverse problems are fundamental across various scientific and engineering applications; yet they face significant challenges due to nonlinearity, ill-posedness, and sensitivity to noise. Here, we introduce a computational framework, regularization by denoising using diffusion models for partial differential equations (RED-DiffEq), by integrating physics-driven inversion and data-driven learning. RED-DiffEq leverages pretrained diffusion models as a regularization mechanism for PDE-governed inverse problems. We apply RED-DiffEq to solve the full waveform inversion problem in geophysics, a challenging seismic imaging technique that seeks to reconstruct high-resolution subsurface velocity models from seismic measurement data. Our method shows enhanced accuracy and robustness compared to benchmark methods. Additionally, it exhibits strong generalization and domain decomposition capacity, enabling the inversion of more complex velocity models with larger domains than those used in training the diffusion model. Our framework can also be directly applied to diverse PDE-governed inverse problems.

Shan, Siming [Yale University, New Haven, CT (Unit↗

Toward an event-level analysis of hadron structure using differential programming

Reconstructing the internal properties of hadrons in terms of fundamental quark and gluon de- grees of freedom is a central goal in nuclear and particle physics. This effort lies at the core of major experimental programs, such as the Jefferson Lab 12 GeV program and the upcoming Electron-Ion Collider. A primary challenge is the inherent inverse problem: converting large-scale observational data from collision events into the fundamental QCD-defined densities that characterize the micro- scopic structure of hadronic systems. Recent advances in AI and machine learning have opened new avenues for addressing this challenge using deep learning techniques. A particularly promising direction is the integration of complex theoretical calculations and experimental simulations into a unified framework capable of reconstructing these densities directly from event-level information. In this document, we introduce a key algorithm called LOITS, which enables differentiable program- ming within such a framework, facilitating the use of AI/ML techniques to solve the inverse problem of QCF reconstruction at the event level.

Braga, Kevin [College of William and Mary, William↗

Probabilistic locked mode predictor in the presence of a resistive wall and finite island saturation in tokamaks

We present a framework for estimating the probability of locking to an error field in a rotating tokamak plasma. This leverages machine learning methods trained on data from a mode-locking model, including an error field, resistive magnetohydrodynamics modeling of the plasma, a resistive wall, and an external vacuum region, leading to a fifth-order ordinary differential equation (ODE) system. It is an extension of the model without a resistive wall introduced by Akçay et al. [Phys. Plasmas 28, 082106 (2021)]. Tearing mode saturation by a finite island width is also modeled. We vary three pairs of control parameters in our studies: the momentum source plus either the error field, the tearing stability index, or the island saturation term. The order parameters are the time-asymptotic values of the five ODE variables. Normalization of them reduces the system to 2D and facilitates the classification into locked (L) or unlocked (U) states, as illustrated by Akçay et al., [Phys. Plasmas 28, 082106 (2021)]. This classification splits the control space into three regions: L̂, with only L states; Û, with only U states; and a hysteresis (hysteretic) region Ĥ, with both L and U states. In regions L̂ and Û, the cubic equation of torque balance yields one real root. Region Ĥ has three roots, allowing bifurcations between the L and U states. The classification of the ODE solutions into L/U is used to estimate the locking probability, conditional on the pair of the control parameters, using a neural network. We also explore estimating the locking probability for a sparse dataset, using a transfer learning method based on a dense model dataset.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

WiiBin

WiiBin is a framework to determine architecture of an unknown binary and locate opcode sections within the same binary via supervised machine learning.

Beckman, BryanR↗

Initial Investigation of Coupled Electron-Photon Transport with SCEPTRE and RAPTURE (Rev.1.1)

The SCEPTRE1 code models coupled photon and electron transport in material media using discrete ordinates methods. The code can use different solvers in 1D and 3D in parallel, promising users the ability to run problems that are significant both in physics and computational scale. One capability that is perhaps unique at this time in the NNSA complex is SCEPTRE’s coupled photon– electron transport physics in a discrete ordinates approach. For example, incident x–rays can generate a significant electron population, whose transport can be simulated within the same code. In this context, fully–coupled means that photons can produce electrons and electrons can produce photons; uncoupled or no–coupling means photons do not produce electrons. Partial–coupling, an intermediate option in which photons can produce electrons but electrons do not produce photons, is not considered in the present work. The MCNP code can treat this physics with a Monte Carlo approach. MCNP should be viewed as complementary to SCEPTRE in both computational method (Monte Carlo versus discrete ordinates) as well as data libraries. SCEPTRE and MCNP should provide important checks on each other, especially from complementary modeling frameworks of a S n (discrete ordinates) mesh based method versus Monte Carlo particle based method. In order to learn more about SCEPTRE, and how it might inform engineering work at the Laboratory, we used it to carry out a set of initial studies. This was a series of 1D simulations of photon beams hitting Aluminum slabs. Our studies mainly used SCEPTRE directly, and made little use of the closely associated RAPTURE code (more on this below). The goals of these studies were first, to familiarize ourselves with operating the code, and second, to begin to assess the importance of coupled electron–photon transport. To support these studies, we began to develop a set of scripts to initialize inputs, run tools, process outputs, and plot results. An initial version of these scripts has been committed to the Lightning workflow repository. This memo relates the results of those studies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

High throughput, accurate gene annotation through AI and HPC-enabled structural analysis

With the advances in next generation sequencing technologies, the number of sequenced genomes is growing exponentially, resulting in a technology bottleneck for the translation of sequence information into usable hypotheses about the function of each gene. We have proposed leveraging our leadership high-performance computing (HPC) resources to help break this annotation bottleneck. Here we design an HPC-based framework to infer gene function from gene sequence by incorporating information about protein structure and interactions predicted by deep learning approaches. Accurate functional prediction and gene annotation using computational methods will facilitate breakthroughs in the genomic sciences essential to understanding and harnessing life processes in bacteria, fungi and plants. The development and applications of the state-of-the-art deep neural networks to protein structural modeling, interaction prediction, sequence comparison, and quality assessment of protein structural models will be made possible by leadership computational resources. These HPC-enabled bioinformatics and molecular modeling tools will provide powerful insights into molecular functions of genes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Intelligent Experiments Through Real-time AI: Fast Data Processing and Autonomous Detector Control for sPHENIX and Future EIC Detectors (Final Report)

The overall vision of this project was to integrate real-time artificial intelligence (AI) directly into the data acquisition and detector-control systems of nuclear physics experiments, including both fast online event selection and an autonomous detector-control feedback loop. The work carried out under the award focused on the fast online event-selection half of that vision: the efficient recording of low-momentum heavy-flavor (HF) hadron decays in proton-proton collisions at the sPHENIX experiment at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC)—an observable that requires fast tracking and topological trigger selection not previously demonstrated at RHIC, and that is essential for QCD studies at future facilities such as the Electron-Ion Collider (EIC). The autonomous detector-control (GPU-based feedback) component named in the project title remained a design concept and was not implemented under this award. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) group led the offline simulation and data processing needed to train the machine-learning (ML) models, the translation of trained models to Field-Programmable Gate Array (FPGA) firmware using the hls4ml framework, and the physics validation of heavy-flavor reconstruction. Over the award period, the team developed and hardware-tested the principal components of an AI-based heavy-flavor trigger on simulated and recorded sPHENIX tracker data: a software Bipartite Graph Attention Network (BiGAT) trigger model reaching > 95% signal efficiency at 99% background rejection; an FPGA-native hit clusterizer matching the offline clustering; smaller networks synthesized to FPGA within the required sub-10 µs latency; and an assembled decoder–clusterizer–inference firmware chain exercised on the FELIX readout board. A complete, fully integrated hardware demonstrator was not finished within the award period. This report documents the project goals, the MIT group’s contributions, the technical accomplishments, and the outlook toward applications at the future EIC ePIC detector.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Idiomatic Correctness-Checking via Julienne in Fortran 2023

This paper presents a unified approach to unit testing and runtime assertion checking using Fortran 2023. The paper describes the support for our approach in the Julienne framework. Julienne leverages recent Fortran standards to implement object-oriented design patterns, support testing parallel programs, and implement functional programming patterns in order to craft idioms inspired by natural-language expressions. The presented idioms employ novel operators to write expressions that evaluate to a test-diagnosis object encapsulating two components: (1) the test outcome or assertion outcome and (2) an automatically generated diagnostic string. Two other novel aspects of the approach include (1) the ability to enforce assertions inside pure procedures and (2) the ability to output rich diagnostic information inside pure procedures during error termination when assertions fail. The latter capability mitigates against a reason that Fortran programmers commonly cite for not writing pure procedures: difficulty obtaining useful program output inside pure procedures when debugging code. This paper demonstrates how the adoption of the proposed idioms leads naturally to a unifying theme across two otherwise disparate technologies: unit testing and runtime assertion checking. Finally, this paper describes the usage of the Julienne testing framework for writing unit tests and assertions in the Matcha high-performance computing application and the Fiats deep learning library.

Rouson, Damian↗