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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,765 records · Page 98
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

The Role of Interfacial Thermal Resistance in Li-Ion Battery Thermal Management: Preprint

Temperature critically affects the performance, life and safety of lithium-ion batteries. Therefore, it is essential to understand heat generation and dissipation within individual battery cells and battery packs to plan a proper thermal management strategy. One of the key challenges is that interfacial heat transfer of a battery unit is difficult to quantify. The steady-state absolute method and the transient laser-flash-diffusivity method were employed to measure heat conductivities of battery layer stacks and individual battery layer separately. Results show flash diffusivity method gives higher thermal conductivity at both cross-plane and in-plane directions. The difference is primarily caused by interfacial thermal resistance so that it can be estimated by steady-state and transient measurements. To investigate the effects of interfacial thermal transport beyond individual cell level, a multiphysics battery model is used. The model is built upon a multi-scale multi-domain modeling framework for battery packs that accounts for the interplay across multiple physical phenomena. Benefits of a battery module using thermal management materials are quantified through numerical experiments. During a thermal runaway event, it is found interfacial thermal resistance can mitigate thermal runaway in a battery module by significantly reducing heat transfer between cells.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Rhizosphere microbiomes diverge among Populus trichocarpa plant-host genotypes and chemotypes, but it depends on soil origin

Abstract Background Plants have developed defense strategies for phytopathogen and herbivore protection via coordinated metabolic mechanisms. Low-molecular weight metabolites produced within plant tissues, such as salicylic acid, represent one such mechanism which likely mediates plant – microbe interactions above and below ground. Salicylic acid is a ubiquitous phytohormone at low levels in most plants, yet are concentrated defense compounds in Populus , likely acting as a selective filter for rhizosphere microbiomes. We propagated twelve Populus trichocarpa genotypes which varied an order of magnitude in salicylic acid (SA)-related secondary metabolites, in contrasting soils from two different origins. After four months of growth, plant properties (leaf growth, chlorophyll content, and net photosynthetic rate) and plant root metabolomics specifically targeting SA metabolites were measured via GC-MS. In addition, rhizosphere microbiome composition was measured via Illumina MiSeq sequencing of 16S and ITS2 rRNA-genes. Results Soil origin was the primary filter causing divergence in bacterial/archaeal and fungal communities with plant genotype secondarily influential. Both bacterial/archaeal and fungal evenness varied between soil origins and bacterial/archaeal diversity and evenness correlated with at least one SA metabolite (diversity: populin; evenness: total phenolics). The production of individual salicylic acid derivatives that varied by host genotype resulted in compositional differences for bacteria /archaea (tremuloidin) and fungi (salicylic acid) within one soil origin (Clatskanie) whereas soils from Corvallis did not illicit microbial compositional changes due to salicylic acid derivatives. Several dominant bacterial (e.g., Betaproteobacteria, Acidobacteria, Verrucomicrobia, Chloroflexi, Gemmatimonadete, Firmicutes ) and one fungal phyla ( Mortierellomycota ) also correlated with specific SA secondary metabolites; bacterial phyla exhibited more negative interactions (declining abundance with increasing metabolite concentration) than positive interactions. Conclusions These results indicate microbial communities diverge most among soil origin. However, within a soil origin, bacterial/archaeal communities are responsive to plant SA production within greenhouse-based rhizosphere microbiomes. Fungal microbiomes are impacted by root SA-metabolites, but overall to a lesser degree within this experimental context. These results suggest plant defense strategies, such as SA and its secondary metabolites, may partially drive patterns of both bacterial/archaeal and fungal taxa-specific colonization and assembly.

16S rRNA↗
NASA NTRS1981

A stochastic-dynamic model for global atmospheric mass field statistics

A model that yields the spatial correlation structure of atmospheric mass field forecast errors was developed. The model is governed by the potential vorticity equation forced by random noise. Expansion in spherical harmonics and correlation function was computed analytically using the expansion coefficients. The finite difference equivalent was solved using a fast Poisson solver and the correlation function was computed using stratified sampling of the individual realization of F(omega) and hence of phi(omega). A higher order equation for gamma was derived and solved directly in finite differences by two successive applications of the fast Poisson solver. The methods were compared for accuracy and efficiency and the third method was chosen as clearly superior. The results agree well with the latitude dependence of observed atmospheric correlation data. The value of the parameter c sub o which gives the best fit to the data is close to the value expected from dynamical considerations.

Ghil, M.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mixed gain detector configurations for time-resolved X-ray solution scattering

X-ray detection at X-ray free-electron lasers is challenging in part due to the XFEL's extremely short and intense X-ray pulses. Experimental measurements are further complicated by the large fluctuations inherent to the self-amplified spontaneous emission process producing the X-rays. At the Linac Coherent Light Source the ePix10ka2M detector offers multiple gain modes, and auto-ranging between these, to increase the dynamic range while retaining low noise. For diffuse scattering techniques, such as time-resolved X-ray solution scattering, where the shape of the scattering pattern largely does not change between exposures, a fixed mix of different gain modes offers many of the same advantages as auto-ranging. We find that configuring individual ASICs in separate gain modes does not impact the intensity linearity of the gain response and has a limited effect on the effective dynamic range in regions with different gain mode settings while avoiding the complexities of auto-ranging. Small (<5%) non-linear gain contributions arise when pixels on the same ASIC are configured in different gain modes. We present a configuration scheme that is designed to select the optimal mixed gain configuration to minimize effects of saturation in the high-/medium-gain region, while maximizing the number of pixels with higher gain to improve the signal-to-noise ratio.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Regulations, Codes, and Standards Review for Underground Hydrogen Storage

Hydrogen continues to show promise as a viable contributor to achieving energy storage goals such as energy security and decarbonization in the United States. However, many new and expanded hydrogen use applications will require identifying methods of larger-scale storage than the solutions that currently exist for smaller storage applications. One possibility is to store large quantities of gaseous hydrogen below ground level. Underground storage of other fuels such as natural gas is already currently utilized, so much of the infrastructure and basic technologies can be used as a basis for underground hydrogen storage (UHS). A few commercial UHS facilities currently exist in the United States, including salt caverns owned and operated by Air Liquide, Linde, and Conoco Philips, but UHS is still a relatively new concept that has not been widely deployed. It is necessary to understand the safety risks and hazards associated with UHS before its use can be expanded and accepted more broadly. Many of these risks are addressed through regulations, codes, and standards (RCS) issued by governing bodies and organizations with expertise in certain hazards. This report is a review of RCS documents relevant to UHS, with a particular lens on potential technical gaps in existing guidance. These gaps may be specific to the physical properties of hydrogen or due to the different technologies relevant for hydrogen vs. natural gas storage. This is meant to be a high-level review to identify relevant documents and potential gaps. Formally addressing the individual gaps identified here within the codes and standards themselves would involve a more intensive analysis and differ based on the code or standard revision processes of the various publishing organizations. Therefore, presenting specific recommendations for revising the verbiage of the documents for UHS applications is left for future work and other publications.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2017

Accumulation of coal combustion residues and their immunological effects in the yellow-bellied slider ( Trachemys scripta scripta )

Anthropogenic activities such as industrial processes often produce copious amounts of contaminants that have the potential to negatively impact growth, survival, and reproduction of exposed wildlife. Coal combustion residues (CCRs) represent a major source of pollutants globally, resulting in the release of potentially harmful trace elements such as arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), and selenium (Se) into the environment. In the United States, CCRs are typically stored in aquatic settling basins that may become attractive nuisances to wildlife. Trace element contaminants, such as CCRs, may pose a threat to biota yet little is known about their sublethal effects on reptiles. To assess the effects of CCR exposure in turtles, we sampled 81 yellow-bellied sliders (Trachemys scripta scripta) in 2014-2015 from CCR-contaminated and uncontaminated reference wetlands located on the Savannah River Site (Aiken, SC, USA). Specific aims were to (1) compare the accumulation of trace elements in T. s. scripta claw and blood samples between reference and CCR-contaminated site types, (2) evaluate potential immunological effects of CCRs via bacterial killing assays and phytohaemagglutinin (PHA) assays, and (3) quantify differences in hemogregarine parasite loads between site types. Claw As, Cd, copper (Cu), and Se (all p ≤ 0.001) and blood As, Cu, Se, and strontium (Sr; p ≤ 0.015) were significantly elevated in turtles from CCR-contaminated wetlands compared to turtles from reference wetlands. Turtles from reference wetlands exhibited lower bacterial killing (p = 0.015) abilities than individuals from contaminated sites but neither PHA responses (p = 0.566) nor parasite loads (p = 0.980) differed by site type. Despite relatively high CCR body burdens, sliders did not exhibit apparent impairment of immunological response or parasite load. Additionally, the high correlation between claw and blood concentrations within individuals suggests that nonlethal tissue sampling may be useful for monitoring CCR exposure in turtles.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fine-scale contemporary recombination variation and its fitness consequences in adaptively diverging stickleback fish

Despite deep evolutionary conservation, recombination rates vary greatly across the genome and among individuals, sexes and populations. Yet the impact of this variation on adaptively diverging populations is not well understood. Here we characterized fine-scale recombination landscapes in an adaptively divergent pair of marine and freshwater populations of threespine stickleback from River Tyne, Scotland. Through whole-genome sequencing of large nuclear families, we identified the genomic locations of almost 50,000 crossovers and built recombination maps for marine, freshwater and hybrid individuals at a resolution of 3.8 kb. We used these maps to quantify the factors driving variation in recombination rates. We found strong heterochiasmy between sexes but also differences in recombination rates among ecotypes. Hybrids showed evidence of significant recombination suppression in overall map length and in individual loci. Recombination rates were lower not only within individual marine–freshwater-adaptive loci, but also between loci on the same chromosome, suggesting selection on linked gene ‘cassettes’. Through temporal sampling along a natural hybrid zone, we found that recombinants showed traits associated with reduced fitness. Our results support predictions that divergence in cis-acting recombination modifiers, whose functions are disrupted in hybrids, may play an important role in maintaining differences among adaptively diverging populations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1977

Ramjet cost estimating handbook

The subject program was conducted for the purpose of generating cost information on ramjet engines and developing a methodology that could be employed to accurately predict production costs ramjet engines. The methodology addresses many different ramjet types, sizes and production quantities. The methodology determines the cost of individual modules of ramjet assemblies based on similarity of the modules to baseline components that are identified in a cost handbook. (There are typically around 20 basic components of a given ramjet to be costed.) The total cost of the engine is a summation of all the appropriate cost elements. A significant accomplishment of the program was the development of a large cost data base on many different configurations, materials of construction and variations in manufacturing processes. This data base should provide a good foundation on which to build other cost data as it becomes available.

Emmons, H. T.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Identification and genetic characterization of mitochondrial citrate transporters in Aspergillus niger

Aspergillus niger is a major cell factory for citric acid production, and the process of citrate export from mitochondria to cytoplasm is predicted to be one of rate-limiting steps in citric acid accumulation. Currently, the mitochondrial citrate transporters (Ctps) in A. niger are not fully characterized. Here, six putative Ctp encoding genes ( ctpA to ctpF ) were identified based on their homology with a mitochondrial citrate transporter Sc Ctp1 from Saccharomyces cerevisiae . Disruption of individual ctpA to ctpF caused varying degrees of decline in citric acid accumulation at different fermentation stages, whereas a mutant strain S1696 with disruption of all six ctp s showed complete loss of citiric acid production. S1696 also exhibited delayed growth, reduced conidia formation, and decreased pigmentogenesis. Exogenous addition of citrate partially restored the conidia formation and pigmentogenesis in S1696 mutant. Reintroduction of individual ctp s ( ctpA to ctpF ) into S1696 at the amyA locus showed that ctpA , ctpB , and ctpD restored the citric acid titers to 88.5, 93.8, and 94.6% of the parent strain, respectively. Additionally, the formation of conidia and pigment production was partially restored after reintroduction of ctpA , ctpB , or ctpD . Overexpression of respective ctpA , ctpB , and ctpD in the parent strain resulted in increases in citric acid accumulation by 32.8, 19.3, and 24.2%, respectively. These results demonstrate that CtpA, CtpB, and CtpD play important roles in citric acid transport across the mitochondrial membrane and function in a redundant manner. Enhancement of citric acid transport process can serve as a target for boosting citric acid accumulation in A. niger .

Cao, Wei↗
DOE OSTI2019

Modeling fuel assembly distortion in light water reactors using BISON

Individual fuel rods in a light water reactor fuel assembly (FA) often have different power profiles that result in a spatial temperature gradient in the FA. This temperature gradient causes some rods to elongate more than others which could in turn distort the entire FA. Such FA distortion has been known to cause operational difficulties with refueling and with the insertion of control rods [1]. Numerical modeling of FA distortion due to differential elongation of fuel rods requires: (i) modeling the thermal elongation as well as the creep and irradiation induced elongation of the fuel rods, and (ii) modeling the bending response of the FA due to the differential elongation of the fuel rods. Past studies on this topic have been focused on the mechanical deformation of the FA with simplistic modeling of fuel rod elongation. In this paper, a simulation approach is presented that directly couples 2D axisymmetric fuel performance models of the individual fuel rods in a FA with structural beam models of the fuel rods in a FA using the Bison code [2]. This allows all of the mechanisms internal to the fuel rod leading to cladding elongation to be accounted for in the FA distortion model. To demonstrate this capability, the bowing of a simplified and idealized 6x6 FA (Fig. 1a), modeled using beam elements, is analyzed under different spatially varying power profiles. For this study, the guide tubes are rigidly connected to the spacer grid. Also, the fuel rods are rigidly connected to the spacer grid in all directions except the vertical direction (Y) along which slipping can occur between the fuel rods and spacer grids, depending on the friction coefficient between them. Coupling the thermo-mechanical response of individual fuel rods to the global mechanical behavior of the FA can shed light on the mechanisms that cause distortion of the FA and potential solutions to address this issue.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
NASA NTRS2004

Magnetic Fields of the Earth and Mars a Comparison and Discussion

In several aspects the magnetic fields of the Earth and Mars are similar but also different. In the past both bodies had planetary magnetic fields but while they Earth's field remains today the Martian ceased to operate, at some unknown time in the past, leaving this planet without a main or core field. This fact resulted in the interaction between the solar and interplanetary magnetic fields with the surfaces of these planets being very different. In addition, Mars has large crustal magnetic anomalies, nearly ten times larger than those on the Earth. Since crustal magnetic anomalies are the product of the thickness of the layer of magnetization, both the magnetizing material and the thickness of the layer of this material must be very different on Mars than Earth. Furthermore, the martian anomalies can only be produced by remanent or fossil magnetization, in contrast with the Earth where both induced and remanent magnetization are producing these anomalies. Crustal magnetic anomalies on the Earth are mainly produced by single-domain, irontitanium oxides, in the form of magnetite being the most common on Mars the main magnetic mineral(s) are unknown. The thickness of the martian magnetized layer in comparison with the Earth remains a major area for research. Determining the paleopole position for the Earth has been done by some of the earliest paleomagnetic researchers. Since we do not have oriented martian rock samples determining the paleopoles for Mars has been done by fitting a magnetization vector to individual magnetic anomalies. Several groups have worked on this problem with somewhat differing results.

Taylor, Patrick T.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Two Stages of Impact Fracture of Polycrystalline ZnS and ZnSe Compounds

Mechanoluminescence (ML) in ductile solids is caused by the motion of charged dislocations in the deformable material. Interatomic bond ruptures followed by electronic structure reconfiguration are the main source of ML in brittle bodies. We studied ML in ceramics composed of mixed ionic/covalent ZnS and ZnSe compounds, which are generated during impact loading higher than the limit deformation. Depending on synthesis method and thermal treatment, the resulting ceramics had different size and geometry of grains and intergrain boundary structure, which presumably may have a significant effect on the dislocation glide. In both materials, the time sweeps of ML pulses have two well-resolved peaks. The position of the peaks along the time axis is substantially dependent on the size of ceramic-forming grains and, to a smaller extent, on the barrier properties of intergrain boundaries. The first peak is associated with plastic deformation preceding disintegration of the crystal structure. The second peak emerges upon crack nucleation as interatomic bonds are ruptured and the material is undergoing local deformation in tips of propagating cracks. The distributions of ML pulse amplitudes (the dependences between the number of pulses and their amplitude) calculated for both peaks individually follow the power law, which demonstrates that the electronic processes having different excitation mechanisms (dislocation motion vs bond rupture) are correlated.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2017

Arsenic exposure from drinking water is associated with decreased gene expression and increased DNA methylation in peripheral blood

Background: Exposure to inorganic arsenic increases the risk of cancer and non-malignant diseases. Inefficient arsenic metabolism is a marker for susceptibility to arsenic toxicity. Arsenic may alter gene expression, possibly by altering DNA methylation. Objectives: To elucidate the associations between arsenic exposure, gene expression, and DNA methylation in peripheral blood, and the modifying effects of arsenic metabolism. Methods: The study participants, women from the Andes, Argentina, were exposed to arsenic via drinking water. Arsenic exposure was assessed as the sum of arsenic metabolites in urine (U-As), using high performance liquid-chromatography hydride-generation inductively-coupled-plasma-mass-spectrometry, and arsenic metabolism efficiency was assessed by the urinary fractions (%) of the individual metabolites. Genome-wide gene expression (N = 80 women) and DNA methylation (N = 93; 80 overlapping with gene expression) in peripheral blood were measured using Illumina DirectHyb HumanHT-12 v4.0 and Infinium Human-Methylation 450K BeadChip, respectively. Results: U-As concentrations, ranging 10–1251 μg/L, was associated with decreased gene expression: 64% of the top 1000 differentially expressed genes were down-regulated with increasing U-As. U-As was also associated with hypermethylation: 87% of the top 1000 CpGs were hypermethylated with increasing U-As. The expression of six genes and six individual CpG sites were significantly associated with increased U-As concentration. Pathway analyses revealed enrichment of genes related to cell death and cancer. The pathways differed somewhat depending on arsenic metabolism efficiency. We found no overlap between arsenic-related gene expression and DNA methylation for individual genes. Conclusions: Increased arsenic exposure was associated with lower gene expression and hypermethylation in peripheral blood, but with no evident overlap. - Highlights: • Women exposed to inorganic arsenic were studied for molecular responses in blood. • Arsenic is associated with decreased gene expression and increased DNA methylation. • Arsenic related pathways differed to some extent due to arsenic metabolism efficiency.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Separating Physically Distinct Mechanisms in Complex Infrared Plasmonic Nanostructures via Machine Learning Enhanced Electron Energy Loss Spectroscopy

Electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS) enables direct exploration of plasmonic phenomena at the nanometer level. To isolate individual plasmon modes, linear unmixing methods can be used to separate different physical mechanisms, but in larger and more complex systems the interpretability of the components becomes uncertain. Here, infrared plasmonic resonances in self-assembled heterogeneous monolayer films of doped-semiconductor nanoparticles are examined beyond linear unmixing techniques, and both supervised and unsupervised machine-learning-based analyses of hyperspectral EELS datasets are demonstrated. Additionally, in the supervised approach, a human operator labels a small number of pixels in the hyperspectral dataset corresponding to features of interest which are then propagated across the entire dataset. In the unsupervised approach, non-linear autoencoders are used to create a highly-reduced latent-space representation of the dataset, within which insight into the relevant physics can be gleaned from straightforward distance metrics that do not depend on operator input and bias. The advantage of these approaches is that the labeling separates physical mechanisms without altering the data, enabling robust analyses of the influence of heterogeneities in mesoscale complex systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Dispersal of Amur tiger from spatial distribution and genetics within the eastern Changbai mountain of China

Abstract Population dispersal and migration often indicate an expanded habitat and reduced inbreeding probability, and to some extend reflects improvement in the condition of the population. The Amur tiger population in the northern region of the Changbai mountain in China mostly distributes along the Sino–Russian border, next to the population in southwest Primorye in Russia. The successful dispersal westward and transboundary movement are crucial for the persistence of the Amur tiger in this area. This study explored the spatial dispersal of the population, transboundary migration, and the genetic condition of the Amur tiger population within the northern Changbai mountain in China, using occurrence data and fecal samples. Our results from 2003 to 2016 showed that the Amur tiger population in this area was spreading westward at a speed of 12.83 ± 4.41 km every three years. Genetic diversity of the Amur tiger populations in southwest Primorye was slightly different than the population in our study area, and the potential individual migration rate between these two populations was shown to be about 13.04%. Furthermore, the relationships between genetic distances and spatial distances indicated the existence of serious limitations to the dispersal of the Amur tiger in China. This study provided important information about spatial dispersal, transboundary migration, and the genetic diversity of Amur tigers in China, showed the urgent need for Amur tiger habitat restoration, and suggested some important conservation measures, such as corridor construction to eliminate dispersal barriers and joint international conservation to promote trans‐boundary movement.

Ning, Yao↗
DOE OSTI2013

Statistical Shape Modeling of Cam Femoroacetabular Impingement

In this study, statistical shape modeling (SSM) was used to quantify three-dimensional (3D) variation and morphologic differences between femurs with and without cam femoroacetabular impingement (FAI). 3D surfaces were generated from CT scans of femurs from 41 controls and 30 cam FAI patients. SSM correspondence particles were optimally positioned on each surface using a gradient descent energy function. Mean shapes for control and patient groups were defined from the resulting particle configurations. Morphological differences between group mean shapes and between the control mean and individual patients were calculated. Principal component analysis was used to describe anatomical variation present in both groups. The first 6 modes (or principal components) captured statistically significant shape variations, which comprised 84% of cumulative variation among the femurs. Shape variation was greatest in femoral offset, greater trochanter height, and the head-neck junction. The mean cam femur shape protruded above the control mean by a maximum of 3.3 mm with sustained protrusions of 2.5-3.0 mm along the anterolateral head-neck junction and distally along the anterior neck, corresponding well with reported cam lesion locations and soft-tissue damage. This study provides initial evidence that SSM can describe variations in femoral morphology in both controls and cam FAI patients and may be useful for developing new measurements of pathological anatomy. SSM may also be applied to characterize cam FAI severity and provide templates to guide patient-specific surgical resection of bone.

statistical shape modeling↗
DOE OSTI2024

Adaptive immersed isogeometric level-set topology optimization

Here, this paper presents for the first time an adaptive immersed approach for level-set topology optimization using higher-order truncated hierarchical B-spline discretizations for design and state variable fields. Boundaries and interfaces are represented implicitly by the iso-contour of one or multiple level-set functions. An immersed finite element method, the eXtended IsoGeometric Analysis, is used to predict the physical response. The proposed optimization framework affords different adaptively refined higher-order B-spline discretizations for individual design and state variable fields. The increased continuity of higher-order B-spline discretizations together with local refinement enables direct control over the accuracy of the representation of each field while simultaneously reducing computational cost compared to uniformly refined discretizations. A flexible mesh adaptation strategy enables local refinement based on geometric measures or physics-based error indicators. These adaptive discretization and analysis approaches are integrated into gradient-based optimization schemes, evaluating the design sensitivities using the adjoint method. Numerical studies illustrate the features of the proposed framework with static, linear elastic, multi-material, two- and three-dimensional problems. The examples provide insight into the effect of refining the design variable field on the optimization result and the convergence rate of the optimization process. Using coarse higher-order B-spline discretizations for level-set fields promotes the development of smooth designs and suppresses the emergence of small features. Moreover, adaptive mesh refinement for state variable fields results in a reduction of overall computational cost. Higher-order B-spline discretizations are especially interesting when evaluating gradients of state variable fields due to their higher inter-element continuity.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of CMIP6 Performance and Projected Temperature and Precipitation Changes Over South America

We evaluate the performance of a large ensemble of Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) over South America for a recent past reference period and examine their projections of twenty-first century precipitation and temperature changes. The future changes are computed for two time slices (2040–2059 and 2080–2099) relative to the reference period (1995–2014) under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs, SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5). The CMIP6 GCMs successfully capture the main climate characteristics across South America. However, they exhibit varying skill in the spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation and temperature at the sub-regional scale, particularly over high latitudes and altitudes. Future precipitation exhibits a decrease over the east of the northern Andes in tropical South America and the southern Andes in Chile and Amazonia, and an increase over southeastern South America and the northern Andes—a result generally consistent with earlier CMIP (3 and 5) projections. However, most of these changes remain within the range of variability of the reference period. In contrast, temperature increases are robust in terms of magnitude even under the SSP1–2.6. Future changes mostly progress monotonically from the weakest to the strongest forcing scenario, and from the mid-century to late-century projection period. There is an increase in the seasonality of the intra-annual precipitation distribution, as the wetter part of the year contributes relatively more to the annual total. Furthermore, an increasingly heavy-tailed precipitation distribution and a rightward shifted temperature distribution provide strong indications of a more intense hydrological cycle as greenhouse gas emissions increase. The relative distance of an individual GCM from the ensemble mean does not substantially vary across different scenarios. We found no clear systematic linkage between model spread about the mean in the reference period and the magnitude of simulated sub-regional climate change in the future period. Overall, these results could be useful for regional climate change impact assessments across South America.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗