Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Importance sampling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,765 records · Page 98

Analytical Action Level Calculator in Turbo FRMAC (FY2020 Close-Out) [Slides]

Objectives: Automate the labor-intensive process of generating Analytical Action Levels (AALs) in Turbo FRMAC to shorten the timeline for planning sampling campaigns and sample analysis during a response. Make the tool output results in a format that is easily imported to RadResponder as a Mixture for use in Analysis Request Forms. Deliver training to EPA on using this new tool in Turbo FRMAC (Delayed due to COVID.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Experimental and Computational Studies of Crystal Nucleation in Composition Gradients (Final Report)

The major goals of this project were to develop and validate a predictive nucleation model that incorporates composition gradients and is applicable to a large range of metallic systems which form both stochiometric and non-stochiometric compounds. Computationally we planned to expand the extent of thermodynamics-based theories and lay the groundwork to improve the general understanding and predictive capabilities of the role that gradients play in phase formation, glass formability and stability, and nucleation and growth events. To address these goals, we used Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations and both isothermal and isochronal nanocalorimetric experiments on amorphous phases with a controlled composition gradient with the hopes of validating and improving the classical nucleation model and its use in solid solutions. While the computations were successful and identified ways to improve the classical nucleation model, the in situ nanocalorimetry studies proved very challenging due to unexpected difficulties in fabricating effective calorimeters and samples. Thus, we could not experimentally validate our predicted influence of composition gradients on nucleation. Nonetheless, important insights were gained and modifications to the classical nucleation theory were suggested.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Discerning Deception: An Empirically-Driven Agent-Based Model of Expert Evaluation of Scientific Content

Both human subject experiments and computational, modeling and simulations have been used to study detection of deception. This work aims to combine these two methods by integrating empirically-derived information (from human subject experiments) into agent-based models to generate novel insights into the complex problems of detection of disinformation content. Computational experiments are used to simulate across multiple scenarios for evaluation and decision-making regarding the validity of potentially deceptive scientific documents. Factors influencing the human agent behaviors in the model were identified through a human subject experiment that was conducted to evaluate and characterize decision making related to disinformation discernment. Correlation and regression analyses were used to translate insights from the human subjects experiment to inform the parameterization of agent features and scenario development. Three scenarios were evaluated with the agent-based models to help evaluate the replicability of the simulations (validation analysis) and assess the influence of human agent and document features (sensitivity analyses). A replication of the human participant experiment demonstrated that the agent-based simulations compare favorably to empirical findings. The agent-based modeling was then used to conduct sensitivity analysis on the accuracy of deception detection as a function of document proportions and human agent features. Results indicate that precision values are adversely impacted when the proportion of deceptive documents is lower in the overall sample, whereas recall values are more sensitive to changes in human agent features. These findings indicate important nuances in accuracy evaluations that should be further considered (including consideration of potential alternate metrics) in future agent-based models of disinformation. Additional areas for future exploration include extension of simulations to consider other ways to align the agent-based model design with psychological theory and inclusion of agent-agent interactions, especially as it pertains to sharing of scientific information within an organizational context.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

SURVEYING THE INNER SOLAR SYSTEM WITH AN INFRARED SPACE TELESCOPE

We present an analysis of surveying the inner solar system for objects that may pose some threat to Earth. Most of the analysis is based on understanding the capability provided by Sentinel, a concept for an infrared space-based telescope placed in a heliocentric orbit near the distance of Venus. From this analysis, we show that (1) the size range being targeted can affect the survey design, (2) the orbit distribution of the target sample can affect the survey design, (3) minimum observational arc length during the survey is an important metric of survey performance, and (4) surveys must consider objects as small as D=15--30 m to meet the goal of identifying objects that have the potential to cause damage on Earth in the next 100 yr. Sentinel will be able to find 50% of all impactors larger than 40 m in a 6.5 yr survey. The Sentinel mission concept is shown to be as effective as any survey in finding objects bigger than D = 140 m but is more effective when applied to finding smaller objects on Earth-impacting orbits. Sentinel is also more effective at finding objects of interest for human exploration that benefit from lower propulsion requirements. To explore the interaction between space and ground search programs, we also study a case where Sentinel is combined with the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) and show the benefit of placing a space-based observatory in an orbit that reduces the overlap in search regions with a ground-based telescope. In this case, Sentinel+LSST can find more than 70% of the impactors larger than 40 m assuming a 6.5 yr lifetime for Sentinel and 10 yr for LSST.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Trends in Spitzer Secondary Eclipses

It is well established that the magnitude of the incident stellar flux is the single most important factor in determining the day–night temperature gradients and atmospheric chemistries of short-period gas giant planets. However, it is likely that other factors, such as planet-to-planet variations in atmospheric metallicity, C/O ratio, and cloud properties, also contribute to the observed diversity of infrared spectra for this population of planets. In this study, we present new 3.6 and 4.5 μm secondary eclipse measurements for five transiting gas giant planets: HAT-P-5b, HAT-P-38b, WASP-7b, WASP-72b, and WASP-127b. We detect eclipses in at least one bandpass for all five planets and confirm circular orbits for all planets except WASP-7b, which shows evidence for a nonzero eccentricity. Building on the work of Garhart et al., we place these new planets into a broader context by comparing them with the sample of all planets with measured Spitzer secondary eclipses. We find that incident flux is the single most important factor for determining the atmospheric chemistry and circulation patterns of short-period gas giant planets. Although we might also expect surface gravity and host star metallicity to play a secondary role, we find no evidence for correlations with either of these two variables.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NLTE ANALYSIS OF HIGH-RESOLUTION H -BAND SPECTRA. II. NEUTRAL MAGNESIUM

Aiming at testing the validity of our magnesium atomic model and investigating the effects of non-local thermodynamical equilibrium (NLTE) on the formation of the H -band neutral magnesium lines, we derive the differential Mg abundances from selected transitions for 13 stars either adopting or relaxing the assumption of local thermodynamical equilibrium (LTE). Our analysis is based on high-resolution and high signal-to-noise ratio H -band spectra from the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment (APOGEE) and optical spectra from several instruments. The absolute differences between the Mg abundances derived from the two wavelength bands are always less than 0.1 dex in the NLTE analysis, while they are slightly larger for the LTE case. This suggests that our Mg atomic model is appropriate for investigating the NLTE formation of the H -band Mg lines. The NLTE corrections for the Mg i H -band lines are sensitive to the surface gravity, becoming larger for smaller log g values, and strong lines are more susceptible to departures from LTE. For cool giants, NLTE corrections tend to be negative, and for the strong line at 15765 Å they reach −0.14 dex in our sample, and up to −0.22 dex for other APOGEE stars. Our results suggest that it is important to include NLTE corrections in determining Mg abundances from the H -band Mg i transitions, especially when strong lines are used.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evidence for Evolved Stellar Binary Mergers in Observed B-type Blue Supergiants

Blue supergiants are the brightest stars in their host galaxies, and yet their evolutionary status has been a long-standing problem in stellar astrophysics. In this pioneering work, we present a large sample of 59 early B-type supergiants in the Large Magellanic Cloud with newly derived stellar parameters and identify the signatures of stars born from binary mergers among them. We simulate novel 1D merger models of binaries consisting of post main-sequence giants with helium-rich cores (primaries) and main-sequence companions (secondaries), and consider the effects of interaction of the secondary with the core of the primary along with the mixing induced by the merger in the envelope. Thereafter, the evolution of the newborn 17–43 M ⊙ stars is followed until core-carbon depletion, close to their final pre-explosion stage. Unlike stars born alone with comparable masses, stars born from mergers of evolved binaries are blue throughout their core helium-burning phase and replicate the surface gravities and Hertzsprung–Russell diagram positions of most of our sample, thus indicating that B-type supergiants structurally resemble stars born from such mergers. Moreover, the large nitrogen-to-carbon and nitrogen-to-oxygen number ratios, coupled with helium enhancements exhibited by at least half our data sample, is uniquely reproduced by our merger models. Collectively, these findings provide compelling evidence toward the important role of binary mergers in producing the currently observed population of blue supergiants in our Universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Characterizing permafrost soil active layer dynamics and sensitivity to landscape spatial heterogeneity in Alaska

An important feature of the Arctic is large spatial heterogeneity in active layer conditions, which is generally poorly represented by global models. In this study, we developed a spatially integrated modelling and analysis framework combining field observations, local scale (~ 50 m) active layer thickness (ALT) and soil moisture maps derived from airborne low frequency (L + P-band) radar measurements, and global satellite environmental observations to investigate the ALT sensitivity to recent climate trends and landscape heterogeneity in Alaska. Model simulated ALT results show good correspondence with in-situ measurements in higher permafrost probability (PP ≥ 70 %) areas (n = 33, R = 0.60, mean bias = 1.58 cm, RMSE = 20.32 cm). The model results also reveal widespread ALT deepening since 2001, with smaller ALT increases in northern Alaska (mean trend = 0.32 ± 1.18 cm yr -1 ) and much larger increases (> 3 cm yr -1 ) across interior and southern Alaska. The positive ALT trend coincides with regional warming and a longer snow-free season (R = 0.60 ± 0.32). Uncertainty in the spatial and vertical distribution of soil organic carbon (SOC) was found to be the most important factor affecting model ALT accuracy. Here, potential improvements in characterizing SOC heterogeneity, including better spatial sampling of soil conditions and advances in remote sensing of SOC and soil moisture, will enable more accurate predictions of permafrost active layer conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Laboratory verification of the lunar orbital X-ray fluorescence experiment - Initial results

The combined use of remote sensing and returned sample chemical data in lunar studies presumes a direct link between the two types of data. Laboratory experiments have demonstrated that within the precision of the lunar orbital X-ray fluorescence data there is a direct relationship between the fluorescence K-series X-radiation emitted from Mg, Al and Si in the surfaces of lunar soil samples and the concentrations of these elements in the bulk soil samples. This relationship encompasses both mare and terra soils. The degree of maturity is not an important variable for the existing orbital X-ray data. It is argued that these results are directly applicable to the lunar surface analyzed by the Apollo orbital X-ray fluorescence experiment.

Hubbard, N.↗

New techniques for the detection and capture of micrometeoroids

In order to understand the origin and distribution of the biogenic elements and their compounds in the solar system, it will be necessary to study material from many classes of objects. Chemical, elemental, and isotopic measurements of returned samples of comets, asteroids, and possibly extrasolar system dust clouds would provide information on a particularly important class: the primitive objects. Extraterrestrial micron-sized particles in the vicinity of Earth are one source of such materials that might otherwise be inaccessible. The Space Station appears to be an eminently suitable platform from which to collect and detect these various particles. The primary challenge, however, is to collect intact, uncontaminated particles which will be encountered at tens of kilometers per seconds. A concept for a micrometeoroid detector that could be deployed from the Space Station was developed which uses a large area detector plate implanted with acoustic transducers. A concept of a nondestructive micrometeoroid collector for the Space Station was also developed. Particles collected would then be returned to Earth for subsequent analysis.

Wolfe, J. H.↗

Degradation mechanisms in thermal-barrier coatings

The degradation mechanism in a thermal barrier-coating system subjected to prolonged heating in air as well as to thermal cycling was studied. Bond-coat oxidation was found to be the most important reason for degradation. The oxidation produced NiO as well as Al2O3 in one set of samples, but the variation in initial coating structure made it difficult to resolve systematic differences between isothermally heated and thermally cycled samples. However, the contribution to degradation from changes in substrate composition seemed less in the cycled sample.

Shinde, S. L.↗

Analyzing time delays in a flight simulation environment

Transport delay in a multirate flight simulation environment is examined. An equivalent systems model is developed that quantifies the contributions of individual components and their sampled-data interactions. Mathematical algorithms used in the discrete implementation are also considered, because they are important elements of a flight simulation system. The equivalent systems model was used to demonstrate the consistency and accuracy of data obtained in the flight simulation facility at Ames Research Center. It showed that effective time delays in simulation models, including delays in scene presentation to the pilot, are considerably less than might be assumed by casual examination of raw data obtained from component-level experiments.

Mcfarland, R. E.↗

The effect of anisotropic emission from thick accretion disks on the luminosity functions of active galactic nuclei

High-luminosity active galactic nuclei (AGNs) powered by accretion onto a massive black hole (or other compact object) may have bolometric luminosities dominated by thermal emission from a geometrically thick accretion disk. Radiation from these disks is strongly anisotropic, which has important consequences for the observed luminosity distribution, and therefore for systematic biases in flux-limited samples. The effect of anisotropic emission from an ensemble of AGNs with random oriented thick disks radiating at or near the Eddington limit is calculated. Because of their higher luminosities, it is predicted face-on disks should constitute an increasing fraction of observed high-redshift, high-luminosity AGNs. Comparison of the results with observed quasar luminosity functions suggests a narrow mass distribution with an upper limit of about a billion solar masses for high-redshift quasars.

Urry, C. M.↗

Electron beam fluorescence measurements in the Boeing hypersonic shock tunnel

The Calspan electron beam fluorescence (EBF) measurement system is described along with the results of measurements made in hypersonic flow. Numerous self-emitting metallic species were identified, many of which may be associated with an aging/erosion process within the B30HST. Because there were only 16 tunnel runs, it was only possible to obtain spectral measurements over a limited range of wavelengths and time sampling periods. Many spectral features of the flow remain uninvestigated. Because flow self-emission is important to all optical diagnostic techniques, it is recommended that additional spectral studies by performed. The three electron beam-excited species that were identified are nitrogen, helium, and nitric oxide. The high metallic radiation background interfered with attempts to obtain the time-wise variation of N2 density and He radiation with the optical fiber/PMT channels. In the case of the N2 density measurements the result of interference was increased uncertainty. Unfortunately, the interference caused the time-wise He measurements to fail completely. It is recommended that the electron beam be modulated to provide discrimination against the background radiation in future N2 density measurements. Careful data reduction produced useful measurements of N2 vibrational temperature, even though the high background from metallic species significantly increased measurement uncertainty. Perhaps the recommended additional spectral studies would reveal N2(+) First Negative System band-pair regions having less background. Detection of the He arrival was easily accomplished with the spectrometer/array detector system. Because of this, it is recommended that this means of detecting He arrival be used in the future. With proper calibrations of the system an He number density could be obtained. Although the flow conditions were out of limits for the run in which the NO spectrum was recorded, the usefulness of the NO spectrum for determination of free-stream rotational temperature was demonstrated and should be exploited in future experiments. Indeed, based on the strong NO signals, it is recommended that lower resolution NO spectra be obtained to provide a measure of NO vibrational temperature in the same manner that the N2 temperature was obtained.

Price, Linwood L.↗

Calculation of surface and top of atmosphere radiative fluxes from physical quantities based on ISCCP data sets. 1: Method and sensitivity to input data uncertainties

The largest uncertainty in upwelling shortwave (SW) fluxes (approximately equal 10-15 W/m(exp 2), regional daily mean) is caused by uncertainties in land surface albedo, whereas the largest uncertainty in downwelling SW at the surface (approximately equal 5-10 W/m(exp 2), regional daily mean) is related to cloud detection errors. The uncertainty of upwelling longwave (LW) fluxes (approximately 10-20 W/m(exp 2), regional daily mean) depends on the accuracy of the surface temperature for the surface LW fluxes and the atmospheric temperature for the top of atmosphere LW fluxes. The dominant source of uncertainty is downwelling LW fluxes at the surface (approximately equal 10-15 W/m(exp 2)) is uncertainty in atmospheric temperature and, secondarily, atmospheric humidity; clouds play little role except in the polar regions. The uncertainties of the individual flux components and the total net fluxes are largest over land (15-20 W/m(exp 2)) because of uncertainties in surface albedo (especially its spectral dependence) and surface temperature and emissivity (including its spectral dependence). Clouds are the most important modulator of the SW fluxes, but over land areas, uncertainties in net SW at the surface depend almost as much on uncertainties in surface albedo. Although atmospheric and surface temperature variations cause larger LW flux variations, the most notable feature of the net LW fluxes is the changing relative importance of clouds and water vapor with latitude. Uncertainty in individual flux values is dominated by sampling effects because of large natrual variations, but uncertainty in monthly mean fluxes is dominated by bias errors in the input quantities.

Zhang, Y.-C.↗

Monthly Variability in Upper Ocean Biogeochemistry Due to Mesoscale Eddy Activity in the Sargasso Sea

A comparison of monthly biogeochemical measurements made from 1993 to 1995, combined with hydrography and satellite altimetry, was used to observe the impacts of nine eddy events on primary productivity and particle flux in the Sargasso Sea. Measurements of primary production, thorium-234 flux, nitrate+nitrite, and photosynthetic pigments made at the US JGOFS Bermuda Atlantic Time-Series Study (BATS) site were used. During the three years of this study, four out of six high thorium-234 flux events over 1000 dpm/sq m/d occurred during the passage of an eddy. Primary production nearly as high as the spring bloom maximum was observed in two mode-water eddies (May 1993 and July 1995). The 1994 spring bloom at BATS was suppressed by the passage of an anticyclone. Distinct phytoplankton community shifts were observed in mode-water eddies, which had an increased percentage diatoms and dinoflagelletes, and in cyclones, which had an increased percentage cyanobacteria (excluding Prochlorococcus). The difference in the observations of mode-water eddies and cyclones may result from the age of the eddy, which was very important to the biological response. In general, eddies that were one to two months old elicited a large biological response; eddies that were three months old may show a biological response and were accompanied by high thorium flux measurements; eddies that were four months old or older did not show a biological response or high thorium flux. Our conceptual model depicting the importance of temporal changes during eddy upwelling and decay fit the observations well in all seven upwelling eddies. Additional information is needed to determine the importance of deeper mixed layers and winter mixing to the magnitude of the eddy impacts. Also, sampling generally captured only the beginning, end, and/or edge of an eddy due to the monthly to semi-monthly frequency of the measurements made at BATS. Lagrangian studies, higher resolution time-series, and/or more spatial coverage is needed to provide additional information for improved C and N budgets in the Sargasso Sea and to complete our understanding of the temporal changes that occur in an eddy.

Sweeney, Erin N.↗

The Relationship of Subvisible Cirrus Clouds Observed During NASA's Tropical Ozone

Thin, subvisible cirrus (SVC) clouds at the tropical tropopause have been observed by a number of methods in a variety of observational programs, including in situ sampling and aircraft and space-based lidar. Modeling studies suggest that these clouds play an important role in dehydrating tropospheric air as it enters the stratosphere. This is because particles large enough to have significant fall speeds can form under the conditions of slow cooling that are implied by the large horizontal extent of the SVC sheets. The IRA radiation that these clouds absorb, and the upward vertical motion this implies, also make them candidates for a tropical troposphere-to-stratosphere mass transfer mechanism. These sheets were observed on five flights during the Tropical Ozone Transport Experiment (TOTE) by the NASA Langley DIAL lidar aboard NASA's DC-8 research aircraft, operating during December 1995 and February 1996 south of Hawaii (12 S to 21 N). This experiment provided a unique look at these clouds since temperature profiles were available for all the SVC observations. Thus, the observed distributions of SVC's can be compared with the position of the tropopause to establish whether the SVC's are tropospheric or stratospheric. It also allows comparison of TOTE observations with in situ experiments, where water and cloud particle data is available as a function of temperature and potential temperature.

Pfister, L.↗

Observations of Subvisible Cirrus Clouds and Gravity Waves at the Tropical Tropopause

Thin, subvisible cirrus (SVC) clouds at the tropical tropopause have been observed by a number of methods in a variety of observational programs, including in situ sampling and aircraft and space-based lidar. Modeling studies suggest that these clouds play an important role in dehydrating tropospheric air as it enters the stratosphere. This is because particles large enough to have significant fall speeds can form under the conditions of slow cooling that are implied by the large horizontal extent of the SVC sheets. The IR radiation that these clouds absorb, and the upward vertical motion this implies, also makes them candidates for a tropical troposphere-to-stratosphere mass transfer mechanism. They may also play a role in the earth's radiation budget. These sheets were observed on five flights during the Tropical Ozone Transport Experiment (TOTE) by the NASA Langley DIAL lidar aboard NASA's DC-8 research aircraft operating during December 1995 and February 1996 south of Hawaii. The relationship of the SVC's observed during TOTE to convection was not a simple one. One class of SVC's are within 1000 km of the persistent strong convection near 15S (the SPCZ). Trajectory analyses indicated that the SVC air masses have in fact passed through the SPCZ within a few days of observation. These clouds are very close to the tropopause, with maximum potential temperatures not much higher than 370K, consistent with in situ water and total water measurements near the tropopause made during the Stratosphere Troposphere Exchange Project in January 1987 at Darwin, Australia. A second class of SVC's are not immediately downstream of convection. These clouds tend to be higher, reaching potential temperatures of 390K or more. Trajectory analyses indicate that the air in these SVC's originates either in the equatorial western Pacific or along the subtropical jet. In any case, the warm temperatures the SVC air masses encounter just prior to the observation time along the back trajectory imply that the clouds cannot be residual particles from cirrus blowoff, but must form locally as the air move upward and equatorward south of Hawaii. Since all the parcels have encountered colder temperatures than those at the time of observation early in their history, subsynoptic scale temperatures colder than the analysis temperatures appear to be required to explain the formation of ice particles. In fact, the sloping shapes of the SVC's do suggest that they are gravity or inertia-gravity waves. In situ meteorological measurements made by the ER-2 within a day of the DC-8 remote lidar observations show a gravity wave structure near the equator with an estimated period of about 30 hours. This is sufficiently long to allow large particles to form and fall out (thus allowing dehydration). Other ER-2 flights south of Hawaii at other times of year show gravity and inertia-gravity waves with a poleward wavenumber component and significant (5 degrees peak to peak) temperature perturbation.

Pfister, Leonhard↗