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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

AI-Assisted Conceptual Development of a Pre-Geometric Cosmological Model - An Exercise in AI-Assisted Conceptual Framework Generation, Paper III: Cosmological Structure and Predictions

This paper develops the cosmological consequences of the replication-driven cosmogenesis framework introduced in Paper I and the emergent geometric structure established in Paper II. After the replication epoch freezes out, the coherent sector occupies a finite spectral band and contains a population of excited states. The relaxation of these excited coherent configurations does not produce coherent radiation; instead, all released energy flows into the incoherent substrate, where the randomizer acts as a rapid phase-scrambling mechanism. This process generates an effectively thermal radiation bath, providing a natural reheating mechanism that requires neither inflaton oscillations nor scalar-field potentials, and can be contrasted with standard scenarios of nonperturbative reheating dynamics. Subsequent symmetry-breaking transitions in the coherent vacuum inject additional radiation, yielding a multi-stage thermal history with well-defined energy transfers. We derive the effective equations of state for each component—the cosmological vacuum, the coherent vacuum, and the radiation bath—and show how their interplay produces an FRW-like expansion. The discrete sequence of coherent-state relaxations imprints a distinctive multi-peaked stochastic gravitational-wave background, whose spectral structure reflects the underlying hierarchy of coherent frequencies. Potential observational signatures in the LISA and mid-band frequency ranges are highlighted, providing concrete avenues to test this replication-based cosmological framework in the context of standard cosmological gravitational-wave backgrounds and LISA-oriented forecasts.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

AI-Assisted Conceptual Development of a Pre-Geometric Cosmological Model - An Exercise in AI-Assisted Conceptual Framework Generation, Paper II: Local Geometry and Metric Structure

This paper develops the geometric sector of the replication-driven cosmogenesis framework introduced in Paper I. Starting from a pre-geometric spectral substrate and a minimal set of replication axioms, we show how coherent self-replicating units generate a spatial adjacency graph whose continuum limit acquires an effective Riemannian structure. The replication dynamics determines a characteristic correlation length that seeds the local metric, while overlap relations among coherent units produce an isotropic neighborhood geometry with an emergent dimensionality $d_{\rm eff}\simeq 3$ across a broad range of replication factors. As replication slows and causal order stabilizes, a limiting signal speed $c_\ast$ appears, providing the basis for the Lorentzian structure of spacetime without assuming a pre-existing light cone. We derive conditions under which the adjacency graph converges to a smooth three-dimensional manifold, describe the transition from Euclidean to Lorentzian propagation, and identify geometric invariants controlled by the replication parameters. This work establishes the geometric and causal layer of the replication cosmogenesis program, bridging the spectral axioms of Paper I to the cosmological dynamics explored in Paper III.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

AI-Assisted Conceptual Development of a Pre-Geometric Cosmological Model - An Exercise in AI-Assisted Conceptual Framework Generation, Paper I: Foundations and Replication Dynamics

We develop a pre-geometric cosmological framework in which existence is identified with a finite amount of unstructured energy possessing vibration as its only intrinsic property. This vibrational substrate occupies an open, bounded spectral interval $(\omega_{\min},\omega_{\max})$, ensuring finiteness of total energy and excluding infinitely stable configurations. The substrate evolves under two fundamental and competing tendencies---excitation, which amplifies coherence, and randomization, which scrambles it. Their balance produces a metastable unstructured regime in which rare fluctuations may form long-lived self-consistent spectral configurations. Because the substrate is finite and subject to competing order--disorder dynamics, no coherent configuration can be perpetually stable. We show that the only mechanism capable of sustaining long-lived organization is a replication instability: a coherent unit may reproduce into multiple offspring according to a general $1\!\to n$ rule. Replication consumes energy from the finite substrate, breaks the metastable symmetry, and induces a discrete notion of event time through the replication tick $\Delta\tau$. Temporal succession is defined through correlation ordering of spectral microstates, producing an intrinsic pre-causal structure. The compactness of the spectral domain imposes minimal and maximal timescales, bounds the internal coherence of emergent units, and limits their proliferation. These spectral constraints serve as precursors for the emergence of geometry, adjacency, and a limiting propagation speed, developed in subsequent papers of this series. Paper I provides the foundational axioms (PG1--PG9) governing the spectral substrate, its metastable dynamics, the formation of coherent units, and the necessity of replication, establishing a fully pre-geometric stage from which causal and geometric structure naturally emerge.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Pre-Equilibrium De-Excitations in Neutrino-Nucleus Interactions

Pre-equilibrium de-excitation is a well-established stage of nucleon-induced nuclear reactions but has not previously been incorporated into neutrino event generators. This work implements the Koning-Duijvestijn exciton model within the MARLEY neutrino event generator to simulate energy redistribution and particle emission before compound nucleus equilibrium. The implementation includes modular calculations of particle-hole state densities, internal transition rates, emission rates, and Monte Carlo cascade sampling, and is validated against the TALYS-2.2 nuclear reaction code. A new event record is also proposed to enable future uncertainty reweighting studies. This work establishes the first framework for studying pre-equilibrium effects in neutrino-induced reactions, with the goal of improving predictions of particle multiplicities, γ-ray production, and MeV-scale detector signals relevant to experiments such as DUNE.

Visser, Erin [Michigan State U., East Lansing (mai↗
DOE OSTI2024

Empirical Validation of UBEM: An Assessment of Bias in Urban Building Energy Modeling for Chicago

Residential and commercial buildings currently account for 30% of total global final energy consumption. Urban-scale building energy modeling (UBEM) can enable scalable investments and unlock building improvements by quantifying energy, demand, emissions, and cost reductions of specific measures or packages for building-specific technologies in large geographic regions. While the sophistication of UBEM data sources and technologies have increased dramatically in the past decade, there remains a knowledge gap for empirical validation and sources of bias between building-specific energy models and measured data at varying geographic scales.As UBEM continues to develop, systemic analysis of accuracy, bias, and limitations of the resulting models is necessary to inform best practices and move toward standardization. These are characterized for the Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) software suite with an initial case study involving metered electricity consumption data from 247,188 buildings in Chicago, Illinois, USA - averaged across years 2019-2021 - compared to the following datasets: (1) the AutoBEM-generated nation-scale Model America version 2 (MAv2) data for 596,064 buildings, (2) tax assessor data for 579,829 buildings, (3) tax assessor data filled with MAv2, and (4) 102 representative dynamic archetypes. The accuracy is reported for every building type and vintage combination, along with multiple sources of bias for unique building descriptors. The AutoBEM simulation workflow produced energy consumption estimates that closely match aggregated metered electricity consumption data for different types of buildings constructed during various time periods at the city scale - with initial normalized mean bias error of 10.9%, and 1.1% after removing outliers. Contribution of statistically significant factors including building type, land use, age, and size to variance in UBEM bias is quantified.

Garg, Ankur↗
DOE OSTI2026

Grid and Wind Transient Ride Through Assessment of Type-5 Synchronous Wind Turbine

The integration of the inverter-based renewable energy resources is increasing and replacing conventional synchronous generators in the evolving bulk power system (BPS), impacting the system inertia along the way. Also, the limited over-current capability of power electronic converters continues to deteriorate the grid strength of the evolving power systems. Type-5 wind turbines have the potential to mitigate these problems because this configuration interfaces with the grid through a synchronous generator; hence, its operation and consequent grid impacts might mimic the conventional synchronous generator. The drivetrain of this type of turbines, however, is different from the more common Type-3 and Type-4 turbines. A hydraulic torque converter and gearbox with torque limiting feature are integral parts of a Type-5 wind turbine drivetrain, to isolate the wind speed variations at the wind turbine rotor from the grid connected generator side. This supports the synchronous operation of the generator. However, high fidelity models of Type-5 wind turbine drivetrain including these core components are not openly and widely available for grid integration and transient stability studies. Moreover, Type-5 turbines are not commonly deployed and hence its power generation and frequency stability characteristics are not widely publicized. This hinders appropriate assessment of Type-5 wind power plant's contribution to bulk grid resilience. This work provides transient stability assessment of a standalone Type-5 wind turbine. Normal operation and grid transient studies are performed to see the step load change and wind speed disturbance impacts on the Type-5 drivetrain and generation dispatch. Preliminary results show that Type-5 wind turbines can support load changes of between 0.6 p.u to 1.15 p.u. Beyond this point, the synchronization of the generator starts to deviate from its set point.

17 - WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterizing the Variation and Covariation of Cloud Microphysical Properties and Implications for Simulation of Subgrid-scale Warm-Rain Processes in Earth System Models (Final DOE-ASR Report)

Warm marine boundary layer (MBL) clouds constitute an important component in the global climate system, and precipitation plays a central role in controlling the water budget, radiative effects, and lifetime of these MBL clouds. Unfortunately, because of the relatively coarse effective grid resolution of the current generation of Earth system models (ESMs), the variety of cloud microphysical processes occurring inside an ESM grid cell are often oversimplified or unconstrained by observations. For example, the warm rain processes (e.g., autoconversion and accretion) are usually parameterized as nonlinear functions of grid-mean cloud properties. Because of the nonlinear nature of these functions, neglecting variability within the ESM grid volume can lead to substantial biases in precipitation production, cloud cover, and surface radiative fluxes. In state-of-the art ESMs, the influence of subgrid-scale variability is represented as an enhancement factor (EF) coefficient to the autoconversion, and accretion rates calculated from the model variables. However, EF is typically taken to be a constant or even used as a knob to tune model cloud properties to match observations, an ad hoc approach that may yield a desired cloud outcome yet introduce compensating errors. In this project, we used the combination of in situ cloud microphysics measurements from the ACE-ENA field campaign and large-eddy simulations (LES) to characterize and understand subgrid-scale variations and co-variations of cloud microphysical properties and use the results to evaluate and improve the representation of subgrid warm-rain processes in ESMs, in particular the EF used to tune the autoconversion and accretion processes. In this final report, we summarize our research activities and main findings in Section 2, provide a list of publications (Section 3) and presentations (Section 4) resulted from our research, and briefly discuss the student activities supported by this project.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hydrological Perspectives on Integrated, Coordinated, Open, Networked (ICON) Science

Hydrologic sciences depend on data monitoring, analyses, and simulations of hydrologic processes to ensure safe, sufficient, and equal water distribution. These hydrologic data come from but are not limited to primary (lab, plot, and field experiments) and secondary sources (remote sensing, UAVs, hydrologic models) that typically follow FAIR Principles (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable: (go-fair.org)). Easy availability of FAIR data has become possible because the hydrology-oriented organizations have pushed the community to increase coordination of the protocols for generating data and sharing model platforms. In addition, networking at all levels has emerged with an invigorated effort to activate community science efforts that complement conventional data collection methods. However, it has become difficult to decipher various complex hydrologic processes with increasing data. Machine learning, a branch of artificial intelligence, provide more accurate and faster alternatives to better understand different hydrological processes. The Integrated, Coordinated, Open, Networked (ICON) framework provides a pathway for water users to include and respect diversity, equity, and inclusivity. In addition, ICONs support the integration of peoples with historically marginalized identities into this professional discipline of water sciences. This article comprises three independent commentaries about the state of ICON principles in hydrology and discusses the opportunities and challenges of adopting them.

(ICON) principles to address↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mathematical Modeling of Multi-Phenomena Anisotropic Systems: Ejection of Primary Aerosols during the Fast Pyrolysis of Biomass

This study introduces a novel particle model for biomass fast pyrolysis, incorporating an anisotropic cylindrical particle to address mass and energy transport coupled with aerosol ejection, which previous models have overlooked. The main contribution lies in developing a model that considers aerosol generation in anisotropic cylindrical particles for the first time, addressing bubbling dynamics and bursting within the liquid phase. The population balance equation describes bubble dynamics and aerosol formation, capturing phenomena like nucleation, growth, coalescence, and bursting. The model employs the method of moments with bubble volume as an internal variable, substantially reducing computational costs by eliminating dependence on this variable. Results highlight the significant impact of anisotropy and particle size on aerosol ejection: smaller, less elongated particles experience faster heating, quicker conversion, and the increased accumulation of the liquid intermediate phase. Specifically, 1 mm diameter particles yield higher concentrations of metaplast and bio-oil aerosols, exceeding 15%, compared to concentrations below 11% for 3 mm particles. This model provides insights into aerosol structure (volume, surface area), aiding in understanding aerosol reactivity at the reactor scale.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling and Optimization of a Nuclear Integrated Energy System for the Remote Microgrid on El Hierro

Nuclear microreactors are a potential technology to provide heat and electricity for remote microgrids. There is potential for the microgrid on the island of El Hierro to use a microreactor, within an integrated energy system (IES), to generate electricity and provide desalinated water. This work proposes a workflow for optimizing and analyzing IESs for microgrids. In this study, an IES incorporating a microreactor, thermal energy storage (TES) system, combined heat and power plant, and a thermal desalination plant was designed, optimized, and analyzed using Idaho National Laboratory’s Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) toolset. The optimization tool, Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON), was used to determine the optimal capacity sizes and dispatch for the reactor and thermal energy storage systems to meet demand. The optimized reactor and TES sizes were found to be 11.61 MWth and 58.47 MWhth, respectively, when optimizing the IES to replace 95% of the island’s existing diesel generation needs. A dynamic model of the system was created in the Modelica language, using models from the HYBRID repository, to analyze and verify the dispatch from the optimizer. The dynamic model was able to meet the ramp rates while maintaining reactor power with minimal control adjustments.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hydroboost

HydroBoost is the most realistic revenue optimization tool for the hybridization of hydropower and battery energy storage systems to date. The innovative representation of how operators actually schedule hydropower in practice results in more realistic predictions of revenue and operations. Unlike other optimization tools, HydroBoost generates forecast energy prices with uncertainty to use in the optimization. This allows HydroBoost to give users a range of potential revenue with an upper bound using the perfect foresight pricing and a lower bound using a naive persistence forecast model. Additional forecast can be generated and used in the optimization, such as additive models, random forest, and neural networks to give further insight into potential revenue. HydroBoost has been designed to be applicable for both run-of-river and reservoir storage sites. The primary focus is on the day-ahead market and requires year-long data with an hour time-step. All time-series input and constraints are contained in an Excel worksheet for convince. The user will run the forecasting generation first with a Python script to give the optimization model the necessary requirements. Next the optimization is ran using Julia and results are generated and stored into a directory as csv files. HydroBoost includes an additional module to generate figures based on the results of the optimization simulation. The results help analyze the results and users to draw insights into how the hydro and battery systems are operated and the revenue each is producing. Additionally, the difference between the perfect foresight model and models that include forecast can easily be inspected.

Phillips, TylerB. [Idaho National Laboratory (INL)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Field demonstration and implementation analysis of model predictive control in an office HVAC system

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a promising technique to address growing needs for heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems to operate more efficiently and with greater flexibility. However, due to a number of factors, including the required implementation expertise, lack of high quality data, and a risk-adverse industry, MPC has yet to gain widespread adoption. While many previous studies have shown the advantages of MPC, few analyzed the implementation effort and associated practical challenges. In addition, previous work has developed an open-source, Modelica-based tool-chain that automatically generates optimal control, parameter estimation, and state estimation problems aimed at facilitating MPC implementation. Therefore, this study demonstrates usage of this tool-chain to implement MPC in a real office building, discusses practical challenges of implementing MPC, and estimates the implementation effort associated with various tasks in order to inform the development of future workflows and serve as an initial benchmark for their impact on reducing implementation effort. This study finds that the implemented MPC saves approximately 40% of HVAC energy over the existing control during a two-month trial period and that tasks related to data collection and controller deployment activities can each require as much effort as model generation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving Detector Systematic Uncertainties Through Data-Driven Machine Learning

Detector simulation in liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs) is a constant challenge. In particular the modeling of electrons response on wires is highly nontrivial. However, new machine learning techniques exist which can be leveraged to ameliorate these concerns. We present a novel methodology to attempt to learn from cosmic muon data in the ICARUS detector how reconstructed wire signals are influenced by features of the hits such as location, particle direction, angle relative to the wire plane, etc. A model can then be generated which can apply the learned mapping to Monte Carlo events to create a more data-like simulation sample. By creating such a sample we expect to reduce the systematic uncertainties at ICARUS due to our detector modeling.

Hausner, Harry [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000188932280)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving Detector Systematic Uncertainties Through Data-Driven Machine Learning

Detector simulation in liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs) is a constant challenge. In particular the modeling of electrons response on wires is highly nontrivial. However, new machine learning techniques exist which can be leveraged to ameliorate these concerns. We present a novel methodology to attempt to learn from cosmic muon data in the ICARUS detector how reconstructed wire signals are influenced by features of the hits such as location, particle direction, angle relative to the wire plane, etc. A model can then be generated which can apply the learned mapping to Monte Carlo events to create a more data-like simulation sample. By creating such a sample we expect to reduce the systematic uncertainties at ICARUS due to our detector modeling.

Hausner, Harry [Fermilab] (ORCID:0000000188932280)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Simulation-guided analysis of resonant soft X-ray scattering for determining the microstructure of triblock copolymers

Resonant soft X-ray scattering (RSoXS) probes structure with chemical sensitivity that is useful for determining the morphology of multiblock copolymers. However, the hyperspectral scattering data produced by this technique can be challenging to interpret. Here, in this study, we use computational scattering simulations to extract the microstructure of a model triblock copolymer from the energy-dependent scattering from RSoXS. An ABC triblock terpolymer formed from poly(4-methylcaprolactone) (P4MCL), poly(2,2,2-trifluoroethylacrylate) (PTFEA), and poly (dodecylacrylate) (PDDA), P4MCL-block-PTFEA-block-PDDA, was synthesized as the model triblock system. Through quantitative evaluation of simulated scattering data from a physics-informed set of candidate structure models against experimental RSoXS data, we find the best agreement with hexagonally packed core–shell cylinders. This result is also consistent with electron-density reconstruction from hard X-ray scattering data evaluated against electron-density maps generated with the same model set. These results demonstrate the utility of simulation-guided scattering analysis to study complex microstructures that are challenging to image by microscopy.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Model and remote-sensing-guided experimental design and hypothesis generation for monitoring snow-soil–plant interactions

In this study, we develop a machine-learning (ML)-enabled strategy for selecting hillslope-scale ecohydrological monitoring sites within snow-dominated mountainous watersheds, with a particular focus on snow-soil–plant interactions. Data layers rely on spatial data layers from both remote sensing and hydrological model simulations. Specifically, a Landsat-based foresummer drought sensitivity index is used to define the dependency of the annual peak plant productivity on the Palmer drought severity index in the early growing season. Hydrological simulations provide the spatiotemporal dynamics of near-surface soil moisture and snow depth. In this framework, a regression analysis identifies the key hydrological variables relevant to the spatial heterogeneity of drought sensitivity. We then apply unsupervised clustering to these key variables, using the Gaussian mixture model, to group hillslopes into several zones that have divergent relationships regarding soil moisture, snow dynamics, and drought sensitivity. Using the datasets collected in the East River Watershed (Crested Butte, Colorado, United States), results show that drought sensitivity is significantly correlated with model-derived soil moisture and snow-free timing over space and time. The relationship is, however, non-linear, such that the correlation decreases above a threshold elevation and in a heavy snow year due to large snowpacks, lateral flow, and soil storage limitations. Clustering is then able to define the zones that have high or low sensitivity to drought, as well as the mid-elevation regions where sensitivity is associated with the topographic aspect and net potential radiation. In addition, the algorithm identifies the most representative hillslopes with road/trail access within each zone for installing monitoring sites. Our method also aims to significantly increase the use of ML and model-simulation results to guide critical zone and watershed monitoring activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Seismic Imaging of the Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest Earthquake Rupture Zone From Data Recorded by Dense Linear Arrays

Abstract We analyze seismograms recorded by four arrays (B1–B4) with 100 m station spacing and apertures of 4–8 km that cross the surface rupture of the 2019 Mw 7.1 Ridgecrest earthquake. The arrays extend from B1 in the northwest to B4 in the southeast of the surface rupture. Delay times between P wave arrivals associated with ∼1,200 local earthquakes and four teleseismic events are used to estimate local velocity variations beneath the arrays. Both teleseismic and local P waves travel faster on the northeast than the southwest side of the fault beneath arrays B1 and B4, but the velocity contrast is less reliably resolved at arrays B2 and B3. We identify several 1–2 km wide low‐velocity zones with much slower inner cores that amplify S waveforms, inferred as damage zones, beneath each array. The damage zones at arrays B2 and B4 also generate fault‐zone head and trapped waves. An automated detector, based on peak ground velocities and durations of high‐amplitude waves, identifies candidate fault‐zone trapped waves (FZTWs) in a localized zone for ∼600 earthquakes at array B4. Synthetic waveform modeling of averaged FZTWs, generated by ∼30 events with high‐quality signals, indicates that the trapping structure at array B4 has a width of ∼300 m, depth of 3–5 km, S wave velocity reduction of ∼20% with respect to the surrounding rock, Q ‐value of ∼30, and S wave velocity contrast of ∼4% across the fault (faster on the northeast side). The results show complex fault‐zone internal structures (velocity contrasts and low‐velocity zones) that vary along fault strike.

Qiu, Hongrui↗