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At least 1,765 records · Page 98

Markovian Statistical Model of Cloud Optical Thickness. Part I: Theory and Examples

We present a generalization of the binary-value Markovian model previously used for statistical characterization of cloud masks to a continuous-value model describing 1D fields of cloud optical thickness (COT). This model has simple functional expressions and is specified by four parameters: the cloud fraction, the autocorrelation (scale) length, and the two parameters of the normalized probability density function of (non-zero) COT values (this PDF is assumed to have gamma-distribution form). Cloud masks derived from this model by separation between the values above and below some threshold in COT appear to have the same statistical properties as in binary-value model described in our previous publications. We demonstrate the ability of our model to generate examples of various cloud-field types by using it to statistically imitate actual cloud observations made by the Research Scanning Polarimeter (RSP) during two field experiments.

binary-value Markovian model↗

SAM-I-Am: Semantic boosting for zero-shot atomic-scale electron micrograph segmentation

Image segmentation is a critical enabler for tasks ranging from medical diagnostics to autonomous driving. However, the correct segmentation semantics — where are boundaries located? what segments are logically similar? — change depending on the domain, such that state-of-the-art foundation models can generate meaningless and incorrect results. Moreover, in certain domains, fine-tuning and retraining techniques are infeasible: obtaining labels is costly and time-consuming; domain images (micrographs) can be exponentially diverse; and data sharing (for third-party retraining) is restricted. To enable rapid adaptation of the best segmentation technology, we propose the concept of semantic boosting: given a zero-shot foundation model, guide its segmentation and adjust results to match domain expectations. Here, we apply semantic boosting to the Segment Anything Model (SAM) to obtain microstructure segmentation for transmission electron microscopy. Our booster, SAM-I-Am, serves as a post-processing engine that extracts geometric and textural features of various intermediate masks to perform mask removal and mask merging operations. We demonstrate a zero-shot performance increase of (absolute) +21.35%, +12.6%, +5.27% in mean IoU, and a -9.91%, -18.42%, -4.06% drop in mean false positive masks across images of three difficulty classes over vanilla SAM (ViT-L).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Nonlinear models for estimating GSFC travel requirements

A methodology is presented for estimating travel requirements for a particular period of time. Travel models were generated using nonlinear regression analysis techniques on a data base of FY-72 and FY-73 information from 79 GSFC projects. Although the subject matter relates to GSFX activities, the type of analysis used and the manner of selecting the relevant variables would be of interest to other NASA centers, government agencies, private corporations and, in general, any organization with a significant travel budget. Models were developed for each of six types of activity: flight projects (in-house and out-of-house), experiments on non-GSFC projects, international projects, ART/SRT, data analysis, advanced studies, tracking and data, and indirects.

Buffalano, C.↗

Interim Reference Ozone Models for the Middle Atmosphere

A set of models was generated based on six satellite experiments of the monthly latitudinal variations in total column ozone and the vertical structure of ozone from 20 mb to 0.003 mb. Generally, interannual variability in monthly zonal means is only a few percent. Comparisons of measurements using various techniques to measure global ozone reveal very good agreement between the techniques. Agreement between individual satellite experiments and the reference model of monthly zonal means is generally within 10% below altitudes of 0.4 mb. This has allowed the first global model of ozone measurements to be constructed from multiple sets of satellite measurements. The ozone measurements based on the satellite data are in excellent agreement with previous midlatitude mean annual model based on rocket and balloon data. Also, models are provided of the relation between total ozone and vertical structure.

Keating, G. M.↗

Models of hot galactic coronae around early-type galaxies

We have computed simple non-steady state models of X-ray-emitting, hot galactic coronae which are observed around early-type galaxies. Our models, appropriate for elliptical galaxies, include the effect of the formation of new stars which occurs as the gas radiatively cools and the effect of supernova explosions which serve to heat the cooling gas component from which the stars are forming. We develop scaling relations for the galaxy parameters including the optical galaxy as well as a dark matter halo which we use to generate galaxy models spanning a range of absolute magnitudes from -19.5 to -22.5. We compare our models to a sample of approximately 150 galaxies with measured X-ray luminosities. We show that our simple model does exhibit the observed correlation between X-ray and optical luminosity. However, the model cannot explain the broad range in X-ray luminosity at a given optical luminosity.

Forman, W.↗

VESIcal: A Critical Approach to Volatile Solubility Modelling Using the Open-Source Engine Vesical

Accurate models of H(2)O and CO(2) solubility in silicate melts are vital for understanding volcanic plumbing systems. These models are used to estimate the depths of magma storage regions from melt inclusion volatile contents, investigate the role of volatile exsolution as a driver of volcanic eruptions, and track the degassing path followed by a magma ascending to the surface. However, despite the large increase in the number of experimental constraints over the last two decades, many recent studies still utilize an earlier generation of models which were calibrated on experimental datasets with restricted compositional ranges. This may be because many of the available tools for more recent models require large numbers of input parameters to be hand-typed (e.g., temperature, concentrations of H(2)O, CO(2), and 8–14 oxides), making them difficult to implement on large datasets. Here, we use a new open-source Python3 tool, VESIcal, to critically evaluate the behaviors and sensitivities of different solubility models for a range of melt compositions. Using literature datasets of andesitic-dacitic experimental products and melt inclusions as case studies, we illustrate the importance of evaluating the calibration dataset of each model. Finally, we highlight the limitations of particular data presentation methods, such as isobar diagrams, and provide suggestions for alternatives, and best practices regarding the presentation and archiving of data. This review will aid the selection of the most applicable solubility model for different melt compositions, and identifies areas where additional experimental constraints on volatile solubility are required.

magma↗

LUVOIR Primary Mirror Segment Alignment Control With Joint Laser Metrology and Segment Edge Sensing

An approach is developed for the alignment and stability maintenance of the LUVOIR segmented primary mirror using a segment state estimation and wavefront control method based on a hybrid segment motion sensing architecture of laser truss metrology and segment edge sensors. Our current computer model was generated for LUVOIR Architecture Option A with a 15-meter aperture, 120segment primary mirror. The methodology and simulation results will be presented and analyzed. JPL has a long history of technology development in laser metrology and edge sensors, including work in SIM [7], Keck and TMT [8], CCAT [3] and LUVOIR [1]. We will discuss our current efforts of LUVOIR laser metrology and edge-sensor models development, showing sensitivities of sensor measurements to various mirror eigenmodes, removing global modes and strengthening weak modes by performing joint (hybrid) laser-metrology and edge sensing. We will define and derive an important performance metric called wavefront error multiplier (WEM), and show that WEM provides a simple link between sensor errors and the closed-loop (controlled) system wavefront error. We will show WEM values for several hybrid sensor configuration options studied. We will discuss an algorithm for mirror shape control and maintenance through segment state and wavefront estimations using joint edge-metrology sensing. We will compare simulated performance of mirror state estimation, wavefront estimation and wavefront control based on joint edge-metrology sensing among several sensor configurations, and show the impact of sensor error distributions on the segmented mirror alignment performance. Mirror shape control performance will be also be evaluated in terms of imaging contrast between inner working angles (IWA) and outer working angles (OWA) of a LUVOIR coronagraph. The research was carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under a contract with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. LUVOIR is a mission concept under study for the next astronomy Decadal Survey—the information presented in this paper is pre-decisional and is provided for planning and discussion purposes only.

Shelton, Chris↗

Using XR for Improving Scientific Discovery With Numerical Weather Models

Earth science (ES) digital twins will help us understand the complex interactions and interrelationships that make up our Earth system and the impacts of earth science phenomena on it. Our work addresses two underdeveloped areas in current ES digital twin work: improving the understanding and interaction with ES model outputs by using Virtual and Mixed Reality (XR) tools and improving the non-intuitive mapping of continuous ES natural phenomena to gridded reference frames in current numerical models. Traditionally, scientists working on ES view and analyze the results of calculated or measured observables with static 1-dimensional (1D), 2D or 3D plots displayed on flat computer screens or paper. Using such limited mediums, it can be very difficult to identify, track and understand the evolution of key features due to poor viewing angles and the nature of flat computer screens. In addition, numerical models, such as the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) ES model, are almost exclusively formulated, visualized and analyzed in an Eulerian reference frame with fixed grid points in space and time. However, ES phenomena such as convective clouds, hurricanes and wildfire smoke plumes are visualized and analyzed in a Lagrangian reference frame: therefore it is often difficult and unnatural to understand these phenomena in relation to each other, visualized either in an Eulerian or Lagrangian context. In 3D visualizations, data generally takes one of three forms: gridded (e.g., voxelized) data, where space is divided into regions; point clouds, where data is represented as a set of points; and meshes, where objects are rendered as surfaces composed of small polygons (usually triangles). A gridded, Eulerian reference frame has been the default representation for the 2D visual analysis of atmospheric data in part because the numerical methods used to generate atmospheric model data in the first place use a gridded approach, with equations defining the relationships between the physical variables in each of a grid's cells across successive timesteps. In our work, we are particularly interested in data from GEOS. Another reason why gridded representations tend to be used for visualizing data from such models is because trajectories are difficult to interpret from representations on 2D surfaces, due to line-of-sight ambiguity. Instead of a fixed grid from GEOS, we embed a trajectory model to simulate particles' movement throughout a GEOS run. We then ingest these particle trajectories as animated point clouds with a NASA open source XR toolkit, the Mixed Reality Exploration Toolkit (MRET), and merge GEOS data with ES phenomena data onto one combined visualization that the user can intuitively interact with. Efficient rendering of arbitrarily large point clouds is an ongoing challenge being addressed by the computer science community, with the GPU-based optimizations and efficient GPU memory utilization a common theme of recent advances, especially for XR, where sustained high frame rate is mandatory to save the user from suffering due to simulation sickness. In this work, we describe and evaluate our progress in choosing and implementing appropriate methods for rendering arbitrarily large point clouds within MRET for XR. While tracking the XR headset enables the immersion of a user within a 3D scene of a data visualization, tracking of XR handheld controllers or user’s hands enables us to implement intuitive user interactions with the visualized datasets. Conventional tools require a user working with an ES visualization to conduct many interactions to commit their intended selections or manipulations with a visualized dataset; for example to specify a set of points in 3D space. Doing so in a 2D flat screen interface has traditionally required specifying a set of points in three distinct 2D coordinate systems (XY, XZ, and YZ), which is cumbersome. In other scientific domains, it has been shown that specifying or selecting a location or volume in XR using handheld controllers or tracked hands allows for greater speed and accuracy. We anticipate the same will hold true for atmospheric data, and we will share initial results of measuring the utility of such an interface. Notably, as the data being visualized is generated by GEOS as a prediction based on initial conditions, an intended application of our tool is to serve as part of an iterative feedback loop. Through XR, a scientist will review and manipulate a GEOS model run, modifying the conditions as needed to do subsequent runs of GEOS. Thereby, XR-based improvements to speed and accuracy of 3D tagging of points minimizes the effort required by both the scientist and the computer cluster conducting the necessary calculations.

Thomas Grubb↗

A Physical Model to Determine Snowfall over Land by Microwave Radiometry

Because microwave brightness temperatures emitted by snow covered surfaces are highly variable, snowfall above such surfaces is difficult to observe using window channels that occur at low frequencies (v less than 100 GHz). Furthermore, at frequencies v less than or equal to 37 GHz, sensitivity to liquid hydrometeors is dominant. These problems are mitigated at high frequencies (v greater than 100 GHz) where water vapor screens the surface emission and sensitivity to frozen hydrometeors is significant. However the scattering effect of snowfall in the atmosphere at those higher frequencies is also impacted by water vapor in the upper atmosphere. This work describes the methodology and results of physically-based retrievals of snow falling over land surfaces. The theory of scattering by randomly oriented dry snow particles at high microwave frequencies appears to be better described by regarding snow as a concatenation of equivalent ice spheres rather than as a sphere with the effective dielectric constant of an air-ice mixture. An equivalent sphere snow scattering model was validated against high frequency attenuation measurements. Satellite-based high frequency observations from an Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-B) instrument during the March 5-6, 2001 New England blizzard were used to retrieve snowfall over land. Vertical distributions of snow, temperature and relative humidity profiles were derived from the Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research (PSU-NCAR) fifth-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5). Those data were applied and modified in a radiative transfer model that derived brightness temperatures consistent with the AMSU-B observations. The retrieved snowfall distribution was validated with radar reflectivity measurements obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) ground-based radar network.

Skofronick-Jackson, G.↗

Fertilizer management for global ammonia emission reduction

Crop production is a large source of atmospheric ammonia (NH 3 ), which poses risks to air quality, human health and ecosystems. However, estimating global NH 3 emissions from croplands is subject to uncertainties because of data limitations, thereby limiting the accurate identification of mitigation options and efficacy. In this report we develop a machine learning model for generating crop-specific and spatially explicit NH 3 emission factors globally (5-arcmin resolution) based on a compiled dataset of field observations. We show that global NH 3 emissions from rice, wheat and maize fields in 2018 were 4.3 ± 1.0 Tg N yr -1 , lower than previous estimates that did not fully consider fertilizer management practices. Furthermore, spatially optimizing fertilizer management, as guided by the machine learning model, has the potential to reduce the NH3 emissions by about 38% (1.6 ± 0.4 Tg N yr -1 ) without altering total fertilizer nitrogen inputs. Specifically, we estimate potential NH3 emissions reductions of 47% (44–56%) for rice, 27% (24–28%) for maize and 26% (20–28%) for wheat cultivation, respectively. Under future climate change scenarios, we estimate that NH3 emissions could increase by 4.0 ± 2.7% under SSP1–2.6 and 5.5 ± 5.7% under SSP5–8.5 by 2030–2060. However, targeted fertilizer management has the potential to mitigate these increases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

TIA: A forward model and analyzer for Talbot interferometry experiments of dense plasmas

Interferometry is one of the most sensitive and successful diagnostic methods for plasmas. However, owing to the design of most common interferometric systems, the wavelengths of operation and, therefore, the range of densities and temperatures that can be probed are severely limited. Talbot–Lau interferometry offers the possibility of extending interferometry measurements to x-ray wavelengths by means of the Talbot effect. While there have been several proof-of-concept experiments showing the efficacy of this method, it is only recently that experiments to probe High Energy Density (HED) plasmas using Talbot–Lau interferometry are starting to take place. To improve these experimental designs, we present here the Talbot-Interferometry Analyzer (TIA) tool, a forward model for generating and postprocessing synthetic x-ray interferometry images from a Talbot–Lau interferometer. Although TIA can work with any two-dimensional hydrodynamic code to study plasma conditions as close to reality as possible, this software has been designed to work by default with output files from the hydrodynamic code FLASH, making the tool user-friendly and accessible to the general plasma physics community. Here, the model has been built into a standalone app, which can be installed by anyone with access to the MATLAB runtime installer and is available upon request to the authors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Badhwar-O'Neill 2011 Galactic Cosmic Ray Model Update and Future Improvements

The Badhwar-O'Neill Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) Model based on actual GCR measurements is used by deep space mission planners for the certification of microelectronic systems and the analysis of radiation health risks to astronauts in space missions. The BO GCR Model provides GCR flux in deep space (outside the earth's magnetosphere) for any given time from 1645 to present. The energy spectrum from 50 MeV/n - 20 GeV/n is provided for ions from hydrogen to uranium. This work describes the most recent version of the BO GCR model (BO'11). BO'11 determined the GCR flux at a given time applying an emperical time delay function to past sunspot activity. We describe the GCR measurement data used in the BO'11 update - modern data from BESS, PAMELA, CAPRICE, and ACE emphasized more than the older balloon data used for the previous BO model (BO'10). We look at the GCR flux for the last 24 solar minima and show how much greater the flux was for the cycle 24 minimum in 2010. The BO'11 Model uses the traditional, steady-state Fokker-Planck differential equation to account for particle transport in the heliosphere due to diffusion, convection, and adiabatic deceleration. It assumes a radially symmetrical diffusion coefficient derived from magnetic disturbances caused by sunspots carried outward by a constant solar wind. A more complex differential equation is now being tested to account for particle transport in the heliosphere in the next generation BO model. This new model is time-dependent (no longer a steady state model). In the new model, the dynamics and anti-symmetrical features of the actual heliosphere are accounted for so emperical time delay functions will no longer be required. The new model will be capable of simulating the more subtle features of modulation - such as the Sun's polarity and modulation dependence on gradient and curvature drift. This improvement is expected to significantly improve the fidelity of the BO GCR model. Preliminary results of its performance will be presented.

O'Neill, Pat M.↗

Badhwar-O'Neill 2011 Galactic Cosmic Ray Model Update and Future Improvements

The Badhwar-O'Neill Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) Model based on actual GR measurements is used by deep space mission planners for the certification of micro-electronic systems and the analysis of radiation health risks to astronauts in space missions. The BO GCR Model provides GCR flux in deep space (outside the earth's magnetosphere) for any given time from 1645 to present. The energy spectrum from 50 MeV/n-20 GeV/n is provided for ions from hydrogen to uranium. This work describes the most recent version of the BO GCR model (BO'11). BO'11 determines the GCR flux at a given time applying an empirical time delay function to past sunspot activity. We describe the GCR measurement data used in the BO'11 update - modern data from BESS, PAMELA, CAPRICE, and ACE emphasized for than the older balloon data used for the previous BO model (BO'10). We look at the GCR flux for the last 24 solar minima and show how much greater the flux was for the cycle 24 minimum in 2010. The BO'11 Model uses the traditional, steady-state Fokker-Planck differential equation to account for particle transport in the heliosphere due to diffusion, convection, and adiabatic deceleration. It assumes a radially symmetrical diffusion coefficient derived from magnetic disturbances caused by sunspots carried onward by a constant solar wind. A more complex differential equation is now being tested to account for particle transport in the heliosphere in the next generation BO model. This new model is time-dependent (no longer a steady state model). In the new model, the dynamics and anti-symmetrical features of the actual heliosphere are accounted for so empirical time delay functions will no longer be required. The new model will be capable of simulating the more subtle features of modulation - such as the Sun's polarity and modulation dependence on the gradient and curvature drift. This improvement is expected to significantly improve the fidelity of the BO GCR model. Preliminary results of its performance will be presented.

O'Neill, Pat M.↗

Autoignition and preliminary heat release of gasoline surrogates and their blends with ethanol at engine-relevant conditions: Experiments and comprehensive kinetic modeling

This work utilizes a rapid compression machine (RCM) to experimentally quantify autoignition and preliminary heat release characteristics for blends of 0 to 30% ethanol by volume into two surrogates (FGF-LLNL and FGF-KAUST) that represent a full boiling range gasoline (FACE-F). Experimental conditions cover pressures from 15 to 100 bar, temperatures from 700 to 1000 K, and diluted/stoichiometric and undiluted/lean fuel loading conditions representative of boosted spark-ignition and advanced compression ignition engines, respectively. Direct comparison is made with previously reported results for FACE-F/E0–E30 blends. Here, a detailed gasoline surrogate chemistry model is also proposed, and chemical kinetic modeling is undertaken using the proposed model to generate chemical insights into the compositional effects and ethanol blending effects.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Resolution requirements for energy conservation in kinetic plasma simulations

The kinetic codes used to model the coupled dynamics of electromagnetic fields and charged particle transport have requirements for spatial, temporal, and charge resolution. These requirements may vary by the solution technique and scope of the problem. In this report, we investigate the resolution limits in the energy-conserving implicit particle-in-cell code CHICAGO. This report has the narrow aim of determining the maximum acceptable grid spacing for the dense plasmas generated in models of z-pinch target gases and power-flow electrode plasmas. In the 2D sample problem, the plasma drifts without external forces with velocity of 10 cm/µs. Simulations are scaled by plasma density to maintain uniform strides across the plasma and from the plasma to the boundaries. Additionally, the cloud-in-cell technique is used with 400 particles per cell and Δ t = 0.85× the Courant limit. For the linear cloud distribution, the criterion for conserving energy is Δ E/E tot < 0.01 for 50,000 time steps. The grid resolution is determined to crudely be Δx ≲ 3 l s , where l s is the electron collisionless skin depth. For the second-order cloud distribution the criterion is Δ E/E tot < 0.005 yielding Δx ≤ 15 l s . These scalings are functions of the chosen v d , Δ t , particles-per-cell, and number of steps.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Fuzzy Modeling and Parallel Distributed Compensation for Aircraft Flight Control from Simulated Flight Data

A method is described that combines fuzzy system identification techniques with Parallel Distributed Compensation (PDC) to develop nonlinear control methods for aircraft using minimal a priori knowledge, as part of NASA’s Learn-to-Fly initiative. A fuzzy model was generated with simulated flight data, and consisted of a weighted average of multiple linear time invariant state-space cells having parameters estimated using the equation-error approach and a least-squares estimator. A compensator was designed for each subsystem using Linear Matrix Inequalities (LMI) to guarantee closed-loop stability and performance requirements. This approach is demonstrated using simulated flight data to automatically develop a fuzzy model and design control laws for a simplified longitudinal approximation of the F-16 nonlinear flight dynamics simulation. Results include a comparison of flight data with the estimated fuzzy models and simulations that illustrate the feasibility and utility of the combined fuzzy modeling and control approach.

Weinstein, Rose↗

GLAD-M35: a joint P and S global tomographic model with uncertainty quantification

We present our third and final generation joint P and S global adjoint tomography (GLAD) model, GLAD-M35, and quantify its uncertainty based on a low-rank approximation of the inverse Hessian. Starting from our second-generation model, GLAD-M25, we added 680 new earthquakes to the database for a total of 2160 events. New P-wave categories are included to compensate for the imbalance between P- and S-wave measurements, and we enhanced the window selection algorithm to include more major-arc phases, providing better constraints on the structure of the deep mantle and more than doubling the number of measurement windows to 40 million. Two stages of a Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (BFGS) quasi-Newton inversion were performed, each comprising five iterations. With this BFGS update history, we determine the model’s standard deviation and resolution length through randomized singular value decomposition.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Observational constraints on low cloud feedback reduce uncertainty of climate sensitivity

Marine low clouds strongly cool the planet. How this cooling effect will respond to climate change is a leading source of uncertainty in climate sensitivity, the planetary warming resulting from CO 2 doubling. In this study, we observationally constrain this low cloud feedback at a near-global scale. Satellite observations are used to estimate the sensitivity of low clouds to interannual meteorological perturbations. Combined with model predictions of meteorological changes under greenhouse warming, this permits quantification of spatially resolved cloud feedbacks. We predict positive feedbacks from midlatitude low clouds and eastern ocean stratocumulus, nearly unchanged trade cumulus and a near-global marine low cloud feedback of 0.19 ± 0.12 W m -2 K -1 (90% confidence). These constraints imply a moderate climate sensitivity (~3 K). Despite improved midlatitude cloud feedback simulation by several current-generation climate models, their erroneously positive trade cumulus feedbacks produce unrealistically high climate sensitivities. Conversely, models simulating erroneously weak low cloud feedbacks produce unrealistically low climate sensitivities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗