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Probabilistic risk assessment of the Space Shuttle. Phase 3: A study of the potential of losing the vehicle during nominal operation, volume 1

This document is the Executive Summary of a technical report on a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of the Space Shuttle vehicle performed under the sponsorship of the Office of Space Flight of the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration. It briefly summarizes the methodology and results of the Shuttle PRA. The primary objective of this project was to support management and engineering decision-making with respect to the Shuttle program by producing (1) a quantitative probabilistic risk model of the Space Shuttle during flight, (2) a quantitative assessment of in-flight safety risk, (3) an identification and prioritization of the design and operations that principally contribute to in-flight safety risk, and (4) a mechanism for risk-based evaluation proposed modifications to the Shuttle System. Secondary objectives were to provide a vehicle for introducing and transferring PRA technology to the NASA community, and to demonstrate the value of PRA by applying it beneficially to a real program of great international importance.

Fragola, Joseph R.↗

]Space Shuttle Independent Assessment Team

The Shuttle program is one of the most complex engineering activities undertaken anywhere in the world at the present time. The Space Shuttle Independent Assessment Team (SIAT) was chartered in September 1999 by NASA to provide an independent review of the Space Shuttle sub-systems and maintenance practices. During the period from October through December 1999, the team led by Dr. McDonald and comprised of NASA, contractor, and DOD experts reviewed NASA practices, Space Shuffle anomalies, as well as civilian and military aerospace experience. In performing the review, much of a very positive nature was observed by the SIAT, not the least of which was the skill and dedication of the workforce. It is in the unfortunate nature of this type of review that the very positive elements are either not mentioned or dwelt upon. This very complex program has undergone a massive change in structure in the last few years with the transition to a slimmed down, contractor-run operation, the Shuttle Flight Operations Contract (SFOC). This has been accomplished with significant cost savings and without a major incident. This report has identified significant problems that must be addressed to maintain an effective program. These problems are described in each of the Issues, Findings or Observations summarized, and unless noted, appear to be systemic in nature and not confined to any one Shuttle sub-system or element. Specifics are given in the body of the report, along with recommendations to improve the present systems.

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SSME - Materials and Methods for Addressing High-Pressure Hydrogen Embrittlement

From the humid, corrosion-friendly atmosphere of KSC, to the extreme heat of ascent, to the cold vacuum of space, the Space Shuttle faced one hostile environment after another. One of those harsh environments the hydrogen environment existed within the shuttle itself. Liquid hydrogen was the fuel that powered the shuttle s complex, powerful, and reusable main engine. Hydrogen provided the high specific impulse the bang per pound of fuel needed to perform the shuttle s heavy lifting duties. Hydrogen, however, was also a potential threat to the very metal of the propulsion system that used it. The diffusion of hydrogen atoms into a metal can make it more brittle and prone to cracking a process called hydrogen embrittlement. This effect can reduce the toughness of carefully selected and prepared materials. A concern that exposure to hydrogen might encourage crack growth was present from the beginning of the Space Shuttle Program, but the rationale for using hydrogen was compelling. This paper outlines the material characterization, anomaly resolution, and path to understanding of hydrogen embrittlement on superalloys through the course of the SSME program. Specific examples of nickel alloy turbine housings and single crystal turbine blades are addressed. The evolution of fracture mechanics analytical methods is also addressed.

Matejczk, Daniel↗

Providing a Turn for the Better

Engineers are tasked with designing new systems every day to meet changing or unexpected technical requirements. After the tragic explosion of the Space Shuttle Challenger on January 28, 1986, NASA engineers embarked on a complete overhaul of many of their long-standing quality systems and procedures. When the official cause of the accident was determined to be an O-ring failure in the right Solid Rocket Booster, NASA's Shuttle Program initiated a thorough redesign of the rocket boosters' clevis ends, which are the O-ring's mating surfaces. One of the unique systems that NASA engineers developed as a result of this effort included a heating assembly that is coupled to the outside of the rocket boosters. When the assembly is affixed to the external surface of the boosters, the very nature of its design allows for the warming of the O-rings prior to launch. After the engineers completed the assembly's design, however, they found that it was nearly impossible to tighten the spanner nuts required for attaching the system, given the minimum amount of clearance they had in the limited and confined space. Under these circumstances, the standard wrenches typically used for tightening these types of nuts did not work, and there were no other existing devices to solve the problem. NASA engineers embraced the challenge, developing a torque wrench tool adapter that allowed for a full rotation of spanner nuts in confined spaces. The tool, which is similar to an open-ended crowfoot wrench and a fixed-face spanner wrench, contains two dowel pins that center and lock the wrench onto the nut.

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High temperature thick film sensor development based on doped lanthanum chromites refractory semiconductors materials

High temperature advanced sensing materials have generated high demand due the high accuracy temperature measurements requirements for process optimization, controlling and sensing. Some technological applications of harsh conditions sensing include monitoring tiles of space shuttles, rotating bearings in aircraft engines, turbines, jet engines dynamics and chemical reactors. High temperature conditions limit the sensing strategies, where typically traditional metal thermocouples are unstable, and the sensing options are limited to optical spectroscopy methods. Recently, refractory semiconductors thick- and thin-film thermocouples have been developed and, in many cases, preferred over conventional metallic thermocouples due their spatial resolution, and capability of direct deposition on any surface. Rare earth chromites ceramics materials, exhibit some properties of interest for high temperature sensing technologies development, such as: high microstructure and sintering stability, excellent conductive behavior at high temperatures, and matching thermal expansion coefficients relative to other conductors and refractory ceramics. In this work, high performance ultra-high temperature thermocouples using p-type and n-type doped lanthanum chromites materials were fabricated and tested at temperatures up to 1500 o C. Thermoelectric voltage, Seebeck Coefficients were established for all devices, evidencing high stability and performance in prolongated operational time and harsh conditions.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Interaction of the space shuttle control system with pogo

The asymmetric configuration of the space shuttle results in coupled pitch and axial vibration modes. This coupling results in interaction between the pogo and control systems. A detailed model of representative space shuttle structure, feedline, control, and engine systems revealed the coupled system may be unstable even though the pogo and control systems are stable individually. A method is developed for predicting the coupled system stability in terms of the stability of the separate systems.

Hopkins, A. S.↗

The astronaut of 1988

Past space exploration history is reviewed for a projection of requirements in astronaut training and selection in 1988. The categories of talent required for those space missions are listed as test pilots and operational pilots for the test phase of programs; flight engineers and mechanics for Space Shuttle and Space Stations; medical doctors as experimentators and crew members; medical technicians and nurses for support medical service; veterinarians and veterinary technicians; physisits, chemists and geologists; and military men and administrators. Multinational crews and participation of both sexes are anticipated.

Slayton, D. K.↗

Synthesis and evaluation of C-ether formulations for use as high temperature lubricants and hydraulic fluids

The formulation and evaluation of C-ether fluids for use in the hydraulic and lubrication systems of the space shuttle and advanced air breathing engines were studied to lower the pour point of a reference C-ether from -29 C to -40 C without changing its evaporation loss. Use of disiloxanes mixed with C-ethers gave a -40 C pour point fluid with little change in the desired evaporation loss or in oxidative stability. A second -40 C pour point fluid containing only C-ethers was also developed. A screening program tested lubrication additives for C-ethers and the new fluids. Six additive packages were chosen for evaluation in 316 C bearing tests, two for evaluation in 260 C pump tests. The goal of the bearing test was a 100 hour run. The rig was a specially designed 80-mm axially loaded ball bearing. The C-ether base fluid ran only one hour at 316 C before cage wear failure occurred. The best additive blends ran 47, 94 and 100 hours. The 96 hour test gave excessive deposits. The 100 hour test had no wear failures; an unexplained loss of cage silver occurred from areas of direct fluid impingement on the cage.

Clark, F. S.↗

Manned simulations of the SRMS in SIMFAC

SIMFAC is a general purpose real-time simulation facility currently configured with an Orbiter-like Crew Compartment and a Displays and Controls (D and C) Subsystem to support the engineering developments of the Space Shuttle Remote Manipulator (SRMS). The simulation consists of a software model of the anthropomorphic SRMS manipulator arm including the characteristics of its control system and joint drive modules. The following are discussed: (1) simulation and scene generation subsystems; (2) the SRMS task in SIMFAC; (3) operator tactics and options; (4) workload; (5) operator errors and sources; (6) areas for further work; and (7) general observations.

Lippay, A. L.↗

Structural tailoring using the SSME/STAEBL code

Space Shuttle Main Engine/Structural Tailoring of Engine Blades (SSME/STAEBL) was developed by systematically modifying and enhancing the STAEBL code developed by Pratt and Whitney under contract to NASA Lewis Research Center. STAEBL was designed for application to gas turbine blade design. Typical design variables include blade thickness distribution and root chord. Typical constraints include resonance margins, root stress, and root to chord ratios. In this program, the blade is loaded by centrifugal forces only. Additions and modifications of STAEBL included in SSME/STAEBL include (1) thermal stress analysis; (2) gas dynamic (pressure) loads; (3) temperature dependent material and thermal properties; (4) forced vibrations; (5) tip displacement constraints; (6) single crystal material analysis; (7) blade cross section stacking offsets; and (8) direct time integration algorithm for transient dynamic response. Capabilities are also included which permit data transfer from finite element models and stand-alone analysis.

Rubinstein, Robert↗

Stellar Inertial Navigation Workstation

Software and hardware assembled to support specific engineering activities. Stellar Inertial Navigation Workstation (SINW) is integrated computer workstation providing systems and engineering support functions for Space Shuttle guidance and navigation-system logistics, repair, and procurement activities. Consists of personal-computer hardware, packaged software, and custom software integrated together into user-friendly, menu-driven system. Designed to operate on IBM PC XT. Applied in business and industry to develop similar workstations.

Johnson, W.↗

Mars Climate Orbiter

The purpose of this mission is to study the climate history and the water distribution of Mars. Beautiful panoramic views of the shuttle on the launch pad, engine ignition, Rocket launch, and the separation and burnout of the Solid Rocket Boosters are shown. The footage also includes an animation of the mission. Detailed views of the path that the Orbiter traversed were shown. Once the Orbiter lands on the surface of Mars, it will dig a six to eight inch hole and collect samples from the planets' surface. The animation also included the prospective return of the Orbiter to Earth over the desert of Utah. The remote sensor on the Orbiter helps in finding the exact location of the Orbiter so that scientists may collect the sample and analyze it.

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STS-36: Breakfast / Suit-Up / C-7 Ex / Launch and Landing at Edwards

Live footage shows the crew members of STS-36, Commander John O. Creighton, Pilot John H. Casper, and Mission Specialists Richard M. Mullane, David C. Hilmers, and Pierre J. Thuot, having the traditional breakfast, suiting up, and walking out to the Astro-Van. Scenes include panoramic views of the shuttle on the pad, main engine start, ignition, liftoff, and booster separation. The landing of Atlantis at Edwards Air Force Base is also seen. Several playback views from different cameras of both the launch and landing are also presented.

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Analyzing a Mature Software Inspection Process Using Statistical Process Control (SPC)

This paper presents a cooperative effort where the Software Engineering Institute and the Space Shuttle Onboard Software Project could experiment applying Statistical Process Control (SPC) analysis to inspection activities. The topics include: 1) SPC Collaboration Overview; 2) SPC Collaboration Approach and Results; and 3) Lessons Learned.

Barnard, Julie↗

STS-111 Flight Day 6 Highlights

The sixth day of STS-111 flight begins with a live shot of the Space Shuttle Endeavor. Dan Bursch Flight Engineer is shown inside the U.S. Lab Destiny. Astronaut Peggy Whitson and Flight Engineer Carl Walz installed the Mobile Remote Servicer Base System (MBS). The MBS latch is attached to the bar of the Mobile Transporter of the International Space Station. A transfer of supplies is shown inside the U.S. Lab Destiny. Mission Specialists Philippe Perrin and Commander Ken Cockrel talk to the media about EVA training.

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Electronic Dipstick

Lake-Tronic's Negative Thermistor Coefficients (NTC) prevent engine nozzles in the Space Shuttle Orbiter from swinging from side to side changing the thrust line. This technology has been adapted to an Electronik Dipstick, used to automatically monitor automotive fluid levels. NTC's are placed at predetermined levels in the dipstick and heated. Contact with fluids dissipates the heat creating a resistance change, which is analyzed by a microprocessor. Installation is simple, and additional applications are under consideration. This product is no longer manufactured.

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Structural Analysis Made 'NESSUSary'

Everywhere you look, chances are something that was designed and tested by a computer will be in plain view. Computers are now utilized to design and test just about everything imaginable, from automobiles and airplanes to bridges and boats, and elevators and escalators to streets and skyscrapers. Computer-design engineering first emerged in the 1970s, in the automobile and aerospace industries. Since computers were in their infancy, however, architects and engineers during the time were limited to producing only designs similar to hand-drafted drawings. (At the end of 1970s, a typical computer-aided design system was a 16-bit minicomputer with a price tag of $125,000.) Eventually, computers became more affordable and related software became more sophisticated, offering designers the "bells and whistles" to go beyond the limits of basic drafting and rendering, and venture into more skillful applications. One of the major advancements was the ability to test the objects being designed for the probability of failure. This advancement was especially important for the aerospace industry, where complicated and expensive structures are designed. The ability to perform reliability and risk assessment without using extensive hardware testing is critical to design and certification. In 1984, NASA initiated the Probabilistic Structural Analysis Methods (PSAM) project at Glenn Research Center to develop analysis methods and computer programs for the probabilistic structural analysis of select engine components for current Space Shuttle and future space propulsion systems. NASA envisioned that these methods and computational tools would play a critical role in establishing increased system performance and durability, and assist in structural system qualification and certification. Not only was the PSAM project beneficial to aerospace, it paved the way for a commercial risk- probability tool that is evaluating risks in diverse, down- to-Earth application

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Cold Flow Plume Entrainment Test Final Report NTF Test Number 2456

As part of the Space Shuttle Return to Flight (RTF) program, Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) performed computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis to define the velocity flowfields around the Shuttle stack at liftoff. These CFD predicted velocity flowfields were used in debris transport analysis (DTA). High speed flows such as plumes induce or 'entrain' mass from the surrounding environment. Previous work had shown that CFD analysis over-predicts plume induced flows. Therefore, the DTA would tend to 1) predict more debris impacts, and 2) the debris velocity (and kinetic energy) of those impacts would be too high. At a November, 2004 peer-review it was recommended that the Liftoff DTA team quantify the uncertainty in the DTA caused by the CFD's over prediction of plume induced flow. To do so, the Liftoff DTA team needed benchmark quality data for plume induced flow to quantify the CFD accuracy and its effect on the DTA. MSFC's Nozzle Test Facility (NTF) conducted the "Nozzle Induced Flows test, P#2456" to obtain experimental data for plume induced flows for nozzle flow exhausting into q quiescent freestream. Planning for the test began in December, 2004 and the experimental data was obtained in February and March of 2005. The funding for this test was provided by MSFC's Space Shuttle Propulsion Systems Integration and Engineering office.

Ruf, Joseph H.↗