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At least 1,765 records · Page 98

Estimating economic damage from climate change in the United States

Estimates of climate change damage are central to the design of climate policies. Here, we develop a flexible architecture for computing damages that integrates climate science, econometric analyses, and process models. We use this approach to construct spatially explicit, probabilistic, and empirically derived estimates of economic damage in the United States from climate change. The combined value of market and nonmarket damage across analyzed sectors—agriculture, crime, coastal storms, energy, human mortality, and labor—increases quadratically in global mean temperature, costing roughly 1.2% of gross domestic product per +1°C on average. Importantly, risk is distributed unequally across locations, generating a large transfer of value northward and westward that increases economic inequality. By the late 21st century, the poorest third of counties are projected to experience damages between 2 and 20% of county income (90% chance) under business-as-usual emissions (Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5).

Hsiang, Solomon (ORCID:0000000220740829)↗

Structured Innovation of High-Performance Wave Energy Converter Technology: Preprint

Wave energy converter (WEC) technology development has not yet delivered the desired commercial maturity nor, and more importantly, the techno-economic performance. The reasons for this have been recognized and fundamental requirements for successful WEC technology development have been identified. This paper describes a multi-year project pursued in collaboration by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories to innovate and develop new WEC technology. It specifies the project strategy, shows how this differs from the state-of-the-art approach and presents some early project results. Based on the specification of fundamental functional requirements of WEC technology, structured innovation and systemic problem solving methodologies are applied to invent and identify new WEC technology concepts. Using Technology Performance Levels (TPL) as an assessment metric of the techno-economic performance potential, high performance technology concepts are identified and selected for further development. System performance is numerically modelled and optimized and key performance aspects are empirically validated. The project deliverables are WEC technology specifications of high techno-economic performance technologies of TPL 7 or higher at TRL 3 with some key technology challenges investigated at higher TRL. These wave energy converter technology specifications will be made available to industry for further, full development and commercialisation (TRL 4 - TRL 9).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Quantifying Uncertainties in Earth's Energy Budget by Cloud Feedback and Ocean Heat Uptake Using E3SM-Slab Ocean Configurations

In order to improve predictive skills of Earth System Model, we need to better understand processes that control Earth's energy budget via ocean, atmosphere, and cryosphere interactions. Simulated energy budget in comprehensive Earth System Models shows a wide range, leading to large uncertainties in predicting Earth system dynamic and thermodynamic variations and associated social-economic impacts. Uncertainties in cloud feedbacks have been identified as the main cause of the large inter-model spread, but oceanic adjustments, especially those associated with ocean heat uptake (OHU) and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), also play an important role. In this proposed work, we focus on understanding the individual and combined roles of cloud feedbacks and ocean adjustments on modulating Earth's energy balance. This research is motivated by our overarching hypothesis that oceanic adjustment is a key source of uncertainty, in addition to those associated with the cloud feedbacks; further, the ocean adjustment and associated OHU work through the cloud feedbacks to modulate Earth's energy budget and temperature variations. We test this hypothesis using numerical experiments where we systematically enable and disable cloud feedbacks in conjunction with perturbations to OHU.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Machine learning for surrogate process models of bioproduction pathways

Technoeconomic analysis and life-cycle assessment are critical to guiding and prioritizing bench-scale experiments and to evaluating economic and environmental performance of biofuel or biochemical production processes at scale. Traditionally, commercial process simulation tools have been used to develop detailed models for these purposes. However, developing and running such models can be costly and computationally intensive, which limits the degree to which they can be shared and reproduced in the broader research community. This study evaluates the potential of an automated machine learning approach to develop surrogate models based on conventional process simulation models. The analysis focuses on several high-value biofuels and bioproducts for which pathways of production from biomass feedstocks have been well-established. The results demonstrate that surrogate models can be an accurate and effective tool for approximating the cost, mass and energy balance outputs of more complex process simulations at a fraction of the computational expense.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Combined Nitrogen and Phosphorous Recovery via Electrochemical Technology Integration into Municipal Wastewater Treatment Plants

This project developed electroN-P, an electrochemical technology for recovering nitrogen and phosphorus as a fertilizer product from anaerobic digester centrate, targeting an advancement from TRL 4 to 6. The reactor was scaled 220× from a 250 mL batch cell to a continuous 4-channel system treating 55 L of wastewater, recovering >80% of phosphorus. Energy consumption under constant-voltage operation was lower than the embedded energy of conventional fertilizers, while constant-current operation produced a cost-competitive product with a smaller reactor footprint. TEA and LCA outcomes were highly sensitive to the magnesium source; alternative magnesium salt configurations projected reduced costs and embedded energy compared to sacrificial rods, but at the expense of significantly longer operation times. The recovered fertilizer performed comparably to diammonium phosphate and triple superphosphate in soil and plant trials. Integrating the technology into a whole-plant model reduced aeration energy by nearly 50%, lowering the levelized cost of water treatment from $0.668/m 3 to $0.648/m 3 . Results support targeting commercialization at smaller (≤1 MGD) facilities with high-strength digester streams. Further investigation into the transport and corrosion kinetics governing sacrificial anode wear is recommended to support continuous, longer-term operation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Model Formulations: Integrating Distributed Energy Resources (DER) using Advanced Unit Commitment Models and DER Aggregation Methodologies

A distribution energy resource aggregator (DERA) constitutes a group of distribution energy resources with small generation capacities which meet the threshold to participate in the electricity wholesale market. This document provides the proposed DERA model formulation that will be implemented in the SCUC simulation’s architecture for the SCUC-DER project. Different economical assessment methodologies have been developed to incorporated bids for individual distributed resources, which include solar cost dispatch and cost model, BESS opportunity cost offer algorithm, and price sensitive demand response model. Detailed methods are proposed to aggregate individual cost offers to a DERA cost curve to bid in SCUC market while three methods are proposed to simulate DER actual dispatch. Based on the DERA models in this document, the SCUC-DER project will be able to assess the impacts of DERA on the distribution system’s operation and reliability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Produced Water and Waste Heat-aided Blowdown Water Treatment: Using Chemical and Energy Synergisms for Value Creation

The project objective was to develop a cooling blowdown water (BDW) treatment process utilizing produced water (PW) and low-grade heat to maximize water reuse and saleable by-product generation while reducing chemical and energy footprints of the treatment. The proposed treatment process consists of mixing, softening, organics and suspended solids removal, reverse osmosis (RO), thermal desalination, and brine electrolysis. BDW samples collected from a local coal-fired power plant and PW samples from two shale gas production wells were used in this study. Each treatment unit was first designed and tested to quantify its treatment efficiency, and its chemical and energy requirements. In addition, a process model was developed and model simulations were conducted based on the experimental results and literature data to optimize the treatment process. A techno-economic analysis was conducted to quantify chemical and energy savings as well as production of 10-lb brine as a saleable product. With the field-collected BDW and PW samples, mixing experiments determined a volumetric mixing ratio 10:1 (BDW:PW) resulted in the best performance of multivalent ions removal and largest chemical savings for softening. Softening of the BDW/PW mixtures using alkaline chemicals (Na 2 CO 3 and NaOH) achieved 95%-100% removal of scaling-forming cations (Ca, Mg, Fe, Ba, Sr) and 60% of silicon, and 10% of total organic carbon (TOC). The mixing and softening treatments yielded an effluent with total dissolved solids (TDS) concentration of 23 g/L. Activated carbon (AC) filtration removed TOC to a low level (< 3 mg/L) and further removed remaining scale-forming divalent metals and silica from the softened water. The AC filtration resulted in a slight reduction of TDS from 23 g/L to 20 g/L, leaving behind only mostly monovalent ions (i.e., sodium and chloride) in the filtered water. These pretreatments yielded a feed water that met the criteria of the downstream reverse osmosis (RO) to prevent membrane fouling. A cross-flow RO system was used to further concentrate the TDS of the AC effluent. Various factors including TDS, pH, and applied pressure were examined and optimal conditions were determined for the co-treatment process. An integrated process consisting of mixing, softening, AC filtration and RO was used to treat a continuous flow (0.25 – 1.2 L/min, or 0.07 – 0.32 gpm) and successfully generated RO permeate as product water (TDS < 0.5 g/L) for reuse in cooling operation, and a concentrate (TDS ~ 45 g/L) to be further treated in a thermal desalination unit. These flow rates meet the FOA’s criterion of 0.01 – 1 gpm. Overall, the co-treatment of BDW/PW allowed shorter ramp-up time compared to treatment of BDW alone. It resulted in 40% and 55% savings of Na 2 CO 3(s) and NaOH, respectively, compared to treating the BDW and PW individually for the same level of softening. The co-treatment also resulted in a 29% energy saving compared to treatment of BDW only for the level of TDS concentration. A thermal desalination system was designed using CFD simulations and manufactured in the WVU Innovation Hub for further treatment of the RO concentrate to generate 10-lb brine. The system has a design flow rate of 2 gpm and has been successfully tested. A bench-scale brine electrolysis system was developed for on-site generation of chlorine/hypochlorite (Cl 2 /OCl - ) and caustic soda (NaOH) as useful chemicals for the co-treatment process. Using salt solutions (0.5 M and 1 M), the system achieved faradaic efficiencies of 93%-97% and 70%-77% for caustic soda and chlorine/hypochlorite generation, respectively. An economic analysis showed that the electricity costs for on-site generation of these chemicals were significantly lower than the chemical prices offered by suppliers. An industrial-scale process model consisting of mixing, softening, AC filtration, RO, thermal desalination, and brine electrolysis was developed using the Aspen Plus V9 in conjunction with Aspen Custom Modeler V9. The model serves as a solvable Aspen Plus model and as basis to form the costing infrastructure. In addition, techno-economic analysis considering capital, operating, and transportation costs was conducted. An optimization solution showed that produced water for mixing is still advantageous in low quantities. The optimum solution approaches a leveled cost of water (LCW) of 2 $/m 3 which becomes cost competitive with nominal water treatment prices.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Spatial Predictive Modeling and Remote Sensing of Land Use Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

This project was focused on modeling the processes by which increasing demand for developed land uses, brought about by changes in the regional economy and the socio-demographics of the region, are translated into a changing spatial pattern of land use. Our study focused on a portion of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed where the spatial patterns of sprawl represent a set of conditions generally prevalent in much of the U.S. Working in the region permitted us access to (i) a time-series of multi-scale and multi-temporal (including historical) satellite imagery and (ii) an established network of collaborating partners and agencies willing to share resources and to utilize developed techniques and model results. In addition, a unique parcel-level tax assessment database and linked parcel boundary maps exists for two counties in the Maryland portion of this region that made it possible to establish a historical cross-section time-series database of parcel level development decisions. Scenario analyses of future land use dynamics provided critical quantitative insight into the impact of alternative land management and policy decisions. These also have been specifically aimed at addressing growth control policies aimed at curbing exurban (sprawl) development. Our initial technical approach included three components: (i) spatial econometric modeling of the development decision, (ii) remote sensing of suburban change and residential land use density, including comparisons of past change from Landsat analyses and more traditional sources, and (iii) linkages between the two through variable initialization and supplementation of parcel level data. To these we added a fourth component, (iv) cellular automata modeling of urbanization, which proved to be a valuable addition to the project. This project has generated both remote sensing and spatially explicit socio-economic data to estimate and calibrate the parameters for two different types of land use change models and has undertaken analyses of these models. One (the CA model) is driven largely by observations on past patterns of land use change, while the other (the EC model) is driven by mechanisms of the land use change decision at the parcel level. Our project may be the first serious attempt at developing both types of models for the same area, using as much common data as possible. We have identified the strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches and plan to continue to revise each model in the light of new data and new lessons learned through continued collaboration. Questions, approaches, findings, publication and presentation lists concerning the research are also presented.

Goetz, Scott J.↗

Integrating Carbon Capture, Utilization, & Sequestration into Chemical Pulp Mills

The U.S. pulp and paper industry presents a unique and largely untapped opportunity for large- scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR). Unlike most industrial sectors, pulp mills rely heavily on biomass, meaning that much of their carbon emissions originate from atmospheric CO₂ that was recently captured by plants. If this biogenic CO₂ can be captured and permanently stored, pulp mills can be transformed from carbon emitters into net carbon removal facilities. This project was motivated by that opportunity and aimed to develop and evaluate integrated, low-cost strategies for capturing, utilizing, and sequestering CO₂ within existing chemical pulping operations. The scope of this work focused on four complementary innovations designed to integrate seamlessly into kraft pulp mill infrastructure: (1) in situ CO₂ capture within the recovery cycle, (2) oxy-fuel retrofitting of the rotary lime kiln to produce a high-purity CO₂ stream, (3) ex situ CO₂ capture and mineralization using pulp mill residues (dregs, grits, and lime mud), and (4) beneficial reuse of these residues as mineral carbonate fertilizers. The project combined process modeling, laboratory experimentation, life cycle assessment (LCA), and field trials to evaluate the technical feasibility, economic viability, and environmental impact of these approaches. The results demonstrate that pulp mills can serve as effective platforms for carbon removal when equipped with integrated carbon capture systems. Process modeling showed that combining sodium spiking with oxy-fuel calcination significantly enhances CO₂ capture efficiency while reducing costs by up to 31% compared to conventional configurations. Experimental work further revealed that calcination behavior in high-CO₂ environments differs substantially from traditional systems, leading to the development of a new kinetic model that predicts reaction rates under these conditions. This model provides essential design guidance for next-generation decarbonized lime kilns. In parallel, the project demonstrated that alkaline mineral residues generated during pulping operations can be repurposed as a sustainable alternative to agricultural lime. Across a wide range of soils in the southeastern United States, these materials performed equivalently to commercial lime in adjusting soil pH while offering lower greenhouse gas emissions and reduced cost. Field and greenhouse studies confirmed that crop and tree growth responses were comparable, supporting their viability as a drop-in replacement. This co-product pathway provides a practical utilization strategy that offsets costs and improves overall system economics. A major contribution of this project is the first comprehensive life cycle assessment of carbon removal in pulp and paper systems across multiple system boundaries. Results show that retrofitted mills can achieve carbon removal efficiencies ranging from 12% to 92%, depending on how the system is defined. This finding highlights a critical issue in carbon accounting: reported performance is highly sensitive to methodological choices. By explicitly quantifying these differences, this work provides valuable guidance for policymakers, carbon registries, and project developers working to standardize carbon removal metrics. From a commercialization perspective, the technologies investigated in this project are well- aligned with existing industrial infrastructure, minimizing the need for entirely new facilities. 3 DE-EE0009413 Industry engagement throughout the project—including collaboration with pulp and paper companies, equipment manufacturers, and carbon removal developers—has accelerated the transition from research to deployment. Notably, a commercial developer is actively pursuing carbon capture projects at pulp mills in the southeastern United States and has cited this research as a contributing foundation. The emergence of voluntary carbon markets and long-term offtake agreements further strengthens the business case for implementation. The broader public benefits of this work are significant. By enabling large-scale carbon removal using existing industrial systems, this approach offers a near-term pathway to reduce atmospheric CO₂ concentrations while supporting domestic manufacturing and rural economies. The reuse of industrial residues as fertilizers reduces reliance on mined materials, lowers costs for farmers, and decreases environmental impacts associated with conventional lime production. In addition, the project has supported workforce development by training graduate students and researchers in carbon capture technologies, helping to build capacity in a critical area of national interest. In conclusion, this project demonstrates that integrated carbon capture, utilization, and sequestration in pulp mills is both technically feasible and economically promising. By combining process innovation, experimental validation, and systems-level analysis, the work advances the understanding of how biomass-based industries can contribute to climate mitigation. The findings provide a strong foundation for commercial deployment and offer a scalable solution for transforming a major U.S. industry into a source of durable carbon removal.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Carbon-efficient conversion of natural gas and natural-gas condensates to chemical products and intermediate feedstocks via catalytic metal–organic framework (MOF) chemistry

The net-zero carbon emission scenario of stopping hydrocarbon use as fuel is unlikely to end the extraction of fossil hydrocarbons. Remaining will be a sizable need for hydrocarbons as feedstocks for commodity chemicals destined for transformation into polymers, manufacturing-relevant intermediates, and value-added chemicals. Historically, the primary feedstock source has been oil. Over the past dozen years, however, fracking-based extraction of shale-trapped natural gas from known enormous reserves, in North America, has resulted in feedstock sourcing instead from wet shale gas. This shift has transformed the catalytic chemistry of commodity chemical manufacturing. In this paper, following a brief discussion of the merits and limitations of crystallographically well-defined metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) as model catalysts and catalyst-supports, we examined their applications for understanding and potentially enabling carbon-economical, catalytic transformation of C 1 , C 2 , C 3 , and C 4 components of natural gas to desirable commodity chemicals, intermediates, or model compounds.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Uncertainty Quantification Study of CTF for the OECD/NEA LWR Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling Benchmark

This work describes the results of a quantitative uncertainty analysis of the thermal-hydraulic subchannel code for nuclear engineering applications, Coolant Boiling in Rod Arrays-Three Field (COBRA-TF). CTF is used, which is a version of COBRA-TF developed in cooperation between the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of Light Water Reactors and North Carolina State University. Four steady-state cases from Phase II Exercise 3 of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development/Nuclear Energy Agency Light Water Reactor Uncertainty Analysis in Modeling (UAM) Benchmark are analyzed using the statistical analysis tool, Design Analysis Kit for Optimization and Terascale Applications (Dakota). The input parameters include boundary condition, geometry, and modeling uncertainties, which are selected using a sensitivity study and then defined based on expert judgment. Here, a forward uncertainty quantification method with Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) is used, where the sample size is based on available computational resources.

42 ENGINEERING↗

SIMPLE-G: A multiscale framework for integration of economic and biophysical determinants of sustainability

We introduce SIMPLE-G, a Simplified International Model of agricultural Prices, Land use, and the Environment- Gridded version, which is a novel tool for evaluating sustainability policies in a global context while factoring in local heterogeneity in land and water resources and natural ecosystem services. This multi-scale model can provide boundary conditions for local decision makers, as well as capturing feedback from local policies to national and global scales. Additionally, to illustrate its value in environmental analysis, we provide two applications of the model. First, we quantify the local stresses on land and water resources due to global changes in population, income, and productivity. Second, we quantify the global impacts of local policy responses and adaptations to water scarcity.

42 ENGINEERING↗

High-fidelity multiscale model development for accelerated fuel qualification for high discharge burnup [Poster]

Reactor vendors seek economic benefits associated with increasing nuclear fuel service lifetime in the existing light-water reactors fleet. FFRD phenomena represent a major safety concern which still needs to be addressed. Formation of high burnup structure (HBS) in conjunction with LOCA can lead to relocating fuel to escape the fuel pin and get dispersed into the primary coolant system.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

LCA-TEA of Sorbent-Based Direct Air Capture with Temperature-Vacuum Swing Adsorption Model

This poster presentation discusses different aspects of Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Techno Economic Analysis (TEA) of sorbent-based case study updates and methodologies utilized for carbon dioxide removal technologies. The combined TEA and LCA approach adopted herein provides insight into trade-offs between environmental performance and cost efficiency under various energy supply scenarios.

carbon dioxide removal↗

Biorefinery Analysis

Fact sheet summarizing NREL's techno-economic analysis and life-cycle assessment capabilities to connect research with future commercial process integration, a critical step in the scale-up of biomass conversion technologies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Economic carbon cycle feedbacks may offset additional warming from natural feedbacks

As the Earth warms, carbon sinks on land and in the ocean will weaken, thereby increasing the rate of warming. Although natural mechanisms contributing to this positive climate–carbon feedback have been evaluated using Earth system models, analogous feedbacks involving human activities have not been systematically quantified. Here we conceptualize and estimate the magnitude of several economic mechanisms that generate a carbon–climate feedback, using the Kaya identity to separate a net economic feedback into components associated with population, GDP, heating and cooling, and the carbon intensity of energy production and transportation. We find that climate-driven decreases in economic activity (GDP) may in turn decrease human energy use and thus fossil fuel CO 2 emissions. In a high radiative forcing scenario, such decreases in economic activity reduce fossil fuel emissions by 13% this century, lowering atmospheric CO 2 by over 100 ppm in 2100. The natural carbon–climate feedback, in contrast, increases atmospheric CO 2 over this period by a similar amount, and thus, the net effect including both feedbacks is nearly zero. Our work highlights the importance of improving the representation of climate–economic feedbacks in scenarios of future change. Although the effects of climate warming on the economy may offset weakening land and ocean carbon sinks, a loss of economic productivity will have high societal costs, potentially increasing wealth inequity and limiting resources available for effective adaptation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fossil-fueled development (SSP5): An energy and resource intensive scenario for the 21st century

Here, this paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. The SSP5 marker scenario results in a radiative forcing pathway close to the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5), and represents currently the only socio-economic scenario family that can be combined with climate model projections based on RCP8.5. This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. Finally, the SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development.

02 PETROLEUM↗