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At least 1,765 records · Page 98
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

A modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model for observed under-reported incidence data

Fitting Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) models to incidence data is problematic when not all infected individuals are reported. Assuming an underlying SIR model with general but known distribution for the time to recovery, this paper derives the implied differential-integral equations for observed incidence data when a fixed fraction of newly infected individuals are not observed. The parameters of the resulting system of differential equations are identifiable. Using these differential equations, we develop a stochastic model for the conditional distribution of current disease incidence given the entire past history of reported cases. We estimate the model parameters using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte-Carlo sampling of the posterior distribution. We use our model to estimate the transmission rate and fraction of asymptomatic individuals for the current Coronavirus 2019 outbreak in eight American Countries: the United States of America, Brazil, Mexico, Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Panama, from January 2020 to May 2021. Our analysis reveals that the fraction of reported cases varies across all countries. For example, the reported incidence fraction for the United States of America varies from 0.3 to 0.6, while for Brazil it varies from 0.2 to 0.4.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1991

Transmission overhaul estimates for partial and full replacement at repair

Timely transmission overhauls increase in-flight service reliability greater than the calculated design reliabilities of the individual aircraft transmission components. Although necessary for aircraft safety, transmission overhauls contribute significantly to aircraft expense. Predictions of a transmission's maintenance needs at the design stage should enable the development of more cost effective and reliable transmissions in the future. The frequency is estimated of overhaul along with the number of transmissions or components needed to support the overhaul schedule. Two methods based on the two parameter Weibull statistical distribution for component life are used to estimate the time between transmission overhauls. These methods predict transmission lives for maintenance schedules which repair the transmission with a complete system replacement or repair only failed components of the transmission. An example illustrates the methods.

Savage, M.↗
DOE OSTI2017

An Investigation of Blazars without Redshifts: Not a Missing Population at High Redshift

We investigate a sample of 622 blazars with measured fluxes at 12 wavebands across the radio-to-gamma-ray spectrum but without spectroscopic or photometric redshifts. This sample includes hundreds of sources with newly analyzed X-ray spectra reported here. From the synchrotron peak frequencies, estimated by fitting the broadband spectral energy distributions (SEDs), we find that the fraction of high-synchrotron-peaked blazars in these 622 sources is roughly the same as in larger samples of blazars that do have redshifts. We characterize the no-redshift blazars using their infrared colors, which lie in the distinct locus called the WISE blazar strip, then estimate their redshifts using a KNN regression based on the redshifts of the closest blazars in the WISE color–color plot. Finally, using randomly drawn values from plausible redshift distributions, we simulate the SEDs of these blazars and compare them to known blazar SEDs. Based on all these considerations, we conclude that blazars without redshift estimates are unlikely to be high-luminosity, high-synchrotron-peaked objects, which had been suggested in order to explain the “blazar sequence”—an observed trend of SED shape with luminosity—as a selection effect. Instead, the observed properties of no-redshift blazars are compatible with a causal connection between jet power and electron cooling, i.e., a true blazar sequence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Luminaire dirt depreciation (LDD): Field data from several exterior lighting projects

Luminaire dirt depreciation (LDD) data were evaluated for seven luminaires from three different project sites in Philadelphia PA, Minneapolis MN, and Yuma AZ. In each case, the luminaires were removed from the installation, carefully packaged and transported to a photometric testing laboratory, and then tested in the “as-is” or dirty condition, cleaned, and re-tested. In terms of light output, the results showed that the IES RP-36-15 method for estimating LDD was applicable to the LED luminaires evaluated. General claims of lower levels of dirt deprecation (or higher LDD values) for LED luminaires than for luminaires using conventional light sources were not supported by the test data for the LED luminaires in these three projects. While the overall measured lumen depreciation due to accumulated dirt closely matched IES estimates for LDD, the data indicated that the accumulated dirt on the luminaires dramatically altered the luminous intensity distribution of the luminaires, with reductions in intensity of more than 25% at peak angles. These effects on luminous intensity distribution are not accounted for in IES LDD estimates.

Davis, Robert G.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Estimation of discontinuous coefficients in parabolic systems: Applications to reservoir simulation

Spline based techniques for estimating spatially varying parameters that appear in parabolic distributed systems (typical of those found in reservoir simulation problems) are presented. The problem of determining discontinuous coefficients, estimating both the functional shape and points of discontinuity for such parameters is discussed. Convergence results and a summary of numerical performance of the resulting algorithms are given.

Lamm, P. D.↗
NASA NTRS2001

The AutoBayes Program Synthesis System: System Description

AUTOBAYES is a fully automatic program synthesis system for the statistical data analysis domain. Its input is a concise description of a data analysis problem in the form of a statistical model; its output is optimized and fully documented C/C++ code which can be linked dynamically into the Matlab and Octave environments. AUTOBAYES synthesizes code by a schema-guided deductive process. Schemas (i.e., code templates with associated semantic constraints) are applied to the original problem and recursively to emerging subproblems. AUTOBAYES complements this approach by symbolic computation to derive closed-form solutions whenever possible. In this paper, we concentrate on the interaction between the symbolic computations and the deductive synthesis process. A statistical model specifies for each problem variable (i.e., data or parameter) its properties and dependencies in the form of a probability distribution, A typical data analysis task is to estimate the best possible parameter values from the given observations or measurements. The following example models normal-distributed data but takes prior information (e.g., from previous experiments) on the data's mean value and variance into account.

Fischer, Bernd↗
NASA NTRS2010

Design Considerations for a Dual-Frequency Radar for Sea Spray Measurement in Hurricanes

Over the last few years, researchers have determined that sea spray from breaking waves can have a large effect on the magnitude and distribution of the air-sea energy flux at hurricane-force wind speeds. Characterizing the fluxes requires estimates of the height-dependent droplet size distribution (DSD). Currently, the few available measurements have been acquired with spectrometer probes, which can provide only flight-level measurements. As such, in-situ measurement of near-surface droplet fluxes in hurricanes with these instruments is, at best, extremely challenging, if at all possible. This paper describes an airborne dual-wavelength radar profiler concept to retrieve the DSD of sea spray.

hurricanes↗
DOE OSTI2016

Output power fluctuations due to different weights of macro particles used in particle-in-cell simulations of Cerenkov devices

The output power fluctuations caused by weights of macro particles used in particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations of a backward wave oscillator and a travelling wave tube are statistically analyzed. It is found that the velocities of electrons passed a specific slow-wave structure form a specific electron velocity distribution. The electron velocity distribution obtained in PIC simulation with a relative small weight of macro particles is considered as an initial distribution. By analyzing this initial distribution with a statistical method, the estimations of the output power fluctuations caused by different weights of macro particles are obtained. The statistical method is verified by comparing the estimations with the simulation results. The fluctuations become stronger with increasing weight of macro particles, which can also be determined reversely from estimations of the output power fluctuations. With the weights of macro particles optimized by the statistical method, the output power fluctuations in PIC simulations are relatively small and acceptable.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1988

Isotopic constraints on crustal growth and recycling

The Sm-Nd isotopic data on clastic and chemical sediments are used with the present-day age distribution of continental crustal rocks to estimate the rates of crustal accretion, growth and recycling throughout earth's history. A new method for interpreting Nd model ages on both chemical and clastic sediments is proposed. A general relationship is derived between the mean crustal residence time of material recycled from the crust to the mantle (i.e., sediments), the mean age of the crust, and the crustal growth and recycling rates. This relationship takes into account the fact that the age distribution of material in the continental crust is generally different from the age distribution of material recycled into the mantle. The episodic nature of the present-day age distribution in crustal rocks results in similar episodicity in the accretion and recycling rates. The results suggest that by about 3.8 Ga ago, about 40 percent of the present continental volume was present. Recycling rates were extremely high 3-4 Ga ago and declined rapidly to an insignificant value of about 0.1 cu km/a during most of the Phanerozoic. The Nd model age pattern on sediments suggests a fairly high rate of growth during the Phanerozoic.

Jacobsen, Stein B.↗
DOE OSTI2016

TU-D-209-06: Head and Neck Tissue Dose From X-Ray Scatter to Physicians Performing Cardiovascular Procedures

Purpose: The purpose of this work was to characterize the spatial distribution of scatter radiation to the head and neck of a physician performing an x-ray interventional procedure and assess brain, eye lens, and carotid artery dose. Methods: Radiographic x-ray beams were tuned to match the peak energy (56 to 106 keV) and HVL (3.5 to 6.5 mm Al) of x-ray scatter originating from a patient during a fluoroscopic procedure. The radiographic beam was directed upon a Rando phantom from an inferior-left location to mimic a typical patient-operator geometric relationship. A lead-equivalent protective garment was secured to the phantom. Direct exposure Gafchromic film (XRQA2) was placed between the transverse plane layers of the head and neck region of the phantom and exposed with 4 scatter-equivalent radiographic beams. A 3×3 cm{sup 2} film placed at the left collar of the phantom was used to monitor incident dose in the position of a radiation monitoring badge. The films were converted to 2D dose distribution maps using FilmQA Pro software and an Epson 11000-XL scanner. The 2D dose distributions maps were normalized by the left collar dose and the percent of left collar dose (%LCD) was calculated for select tissues. Results: The dose maps had high dynamic range (10{sub 4}) and spatial detail. Considering all transverse planes and 4 scatter beam qualities, the median %LCD values were: whole brain 8.5%, left brain 13%, right brain 5.4%, left eye lens 67%, right eye lens 25%, left carotid artery 72%, and right carotid artery 28%. Conclusion: Scatter radiation dose to an operator can be simulated using a tuned radiographic beam and used to expose a phantom and Gafchromic film, thereby creating detailed 2D dose distribution maps. This work facilitates individualized estimation of dose to select head and neck tissues based on an operator’s radiation monitoring badge value.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparative Study of Wind Energy Potential Estimation Methods for Wind Sites in Togo and Benin (West Sub-Saharan Africa)

The characterization of wind speed distribution and the optimal assessment of wind energy potential are critical factors in selecting a suitable site for wind power plants (WPP). The Weibull distribution law has been used extensively to analyze the wind characteristics of candidate WPP sites, and to estimate the available and deliverable energy. This paper presents a comparative study of five wind energy resource assessment methods as they applied to the context of wind sites in West Sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated three numerical approaches, namely, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), the multilayer perceptron method (MLP), and support vector regression (SVR), to derive the distribution law of wind speeds and to optimally quantify the corresponding wind energy potential. Next, we compared these three approaches to two well-known Weibull distribution law-based methods: the empirical method of Justus (EMJ) and the maximum likelihood method (MLM). Case study results indicated that the neural network-based methods, ANFIS and MLP, yielded the most accurate distribution fits and wind energy potential estimates, and consequently, are the most recommended methods for the wind sites in Togo and Benin. The orders of magnitude of the root mean squared error (RMSE) in estimating the recoverable energy using ANFIS were, respectively, 10-4 and 10-5 for Lomé and Cotonou, while MLP achieved an RMSE order of magnitude of 10-3 for both sites.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2017

Ensemble Kalman Filter for Dynamic State Estimation of Power Grids Stochastically Driven by Time-correlated Mechanical Input Power

State and parameter estimation of power transmission networks is important for monitoring power grid operating conditions and analyzing transient stability. Wind power generation depends on fluctuating input power levels, which are correlated in time and contribute to uncertainty in turbine dynamical models. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a standard state estimation technique, uses a deterministic forecast and does not explicitly model time-correlated noise in parameters such as mechanical input power. However, this uncertainty affects the probability of fault-induced transient instability and increased prediction bias. Here a novel approach is to model input power noise with time-correlated stochastic fluctuations, and integrate them with the network dynamics during the forecast. While the EnKF has been used to calibrate constant parameters in turbine dynamical models, the calibration of a statistical model for a time-correlated parameter has not been investigated. In this study, twin experiments on a standard transmission network test case are used to validate our time-correlated noise model framework for state estimation of unsteady operating conditions and transient stability analysis, and a methodology is proposed for the inference of the mechanical input power time-correlation length parameter using time-series data from PMUs monitoring power dynamics at generator buses.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2019

Power System Dynamic State Estimation: Motivations, Definitions, Methodologies and Future Work

This paper summarizes the technical activities of the Task Force on Power System Dynamic State and Parameter Estimation. This Task Force was established by the IEEE Working Group on State Estimation Algorithms to investigate the added benefits of dynamic state and parameter estimation for the enhancement of the reliability, security, and resilience of electric power systems. The motivations and engineering values of dynamic state estimation (DSE) are discussed in detail. Then, a set of potential applications that will rely on DSE is presented and discussed. Furthermore, a unified framework is proposed to clarify the important concepts related to DSE, forecasting-aided state estimation, tracking state estimation and static state estimation. An overview of the current progress in DSE and dynamic parameter estimation is provided. The paper also provides future research needs and directions for the power engineering community.

task force, dynamic state estimation, Parameter Es↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modified Eigen-Decomposition-based Interval Analysis (MEDIA) for Power System Dynamic State Estimation

The Bayesian approach has been used for the dynamic state estimation (DSE) of a power system. However, due to the complexity of noise resources, it is difficult to quantify measurement and process noise using probability density functions (PDFs). To overcome the difficulty, the authors of this paper propose a modified eigen-decomposition-based interval analysis (MEDIA) method, which employs bounds instead of PDFs to quantify the noise, and uses the eigen decomposition method to reduce the negative impact of the overestimation problem. Using the simulation data generated from IEEE 16-machine and IEEE 10-machine systems, it is shown that the proposed MEDIA method can estimate the hard boundaries of dynamic states in real time. Furthermore, comparison with the forward-backward propagation method and the extended set-membership filter also shows that the proposed MEDIA method performs better by providing narrower boundaries in the DSE.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS2002

Residual wave front phase estimation in the reimaged lyot plane for the eclipse coronographic telescope

Coronagraphs for extra-solar planet detection remove diffracted stellar light through the combination of a coronagraphic mask and a Lyot stop. When the entrance pupil contains a nearly perfect wave fiont, most of the stellar light is absorbed at the mask. Light scattered around the spot due to mid- and high-spatial frequency phase errors in the pupil appears at the Lyot plane as speckles whose amplitudes are proportional to the local wave front phase residuals. The speckles scale with optical wavelength but are not radially smeared. The Eclipse deformable mirror (DM) can be used to modify the Lyot amplitude distribution, providing a simple means of estimating the residual phase content and controlling the wave front. To reduce the detrimental noise carried by uncontrollable high-spatial frequency wave front components, theLyot plane signal is filtered at the science plane to pass only the controllable spatial frequencies that contribute to the dark hole. The Lyot stop is then reimaged onto a detector. We demonstrate through simulations that this approach signiscantly improves the signal-to-noise ratio of the planet measurement.

coronagraph wave front sensing wave front control↗
DOE OSTI2016

Evidence of Universal Temperature Scaling in Self-Heated Percolating Networks

During routine operation, electrically percolating nanocomposites are subjected to high voltages, leading to spatially heterogeneous current distribution. The heterogeneity implies localized self-heating that may (self-consistently) reroute the percolation pathways and even irreversibly damage the material. In the absence of experiments that can spatially resolve the current distribution and a nonlinear percolation model suitable to interpret them, one relies on empirical rules and safety factors to engineer these materials. In this paper, we use ultrahigh resolution thermo-reflectance imaging, coupled with a new imaging processing technique, to map the spatial distribution ΔT(x, y; I) and histogram f(ΔT) of temperature rise due to self-heating in two types of 2D networks (percolating and copercolating). Remarkably, we find that the self-heating can be described by a simple two-parameter Weibull distribution, even under voltages high enough to reconfigure the percolation pathways. Given the generality of the phenomenological argument supporting the distribution, other percolating networks are likely to show similar stress distribution in response to sufficiently large stimuli. Furthermore, the spatial evolution of the self-heating of network was investigated by analyzing the spatial distribution and spatial correlation, respectively. An estimation of degree of hotspot clustering reveals a mechanism analogous to crystallization physics. Lastly, the results should encourage nonlinear generalization of percolation models necessary for predictive engineering of nanocomposite materials.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measurement-informed Dynamic Aggregation of Distribution Systems

This paper proposes a measurement-informed dynamic aggregation methodology in order to create equivalent representations of distribution systems that are compatible with large-scale transmission analysis. By optimizing an equivalent feeder parameters using time-series measurements of active power, reactive power, and voltage at the Point of Interconnection (POI), the approach yields simplified yet dynamically accurate equivalents. Implemented in PSCAD with models of photovoltaic–battery systems, three-phase motors, and static loads, the method employs hybrid differential evolution and bounded least-squares optimization laying the foundation for for real-time state estimation and optimized sensor placement in distribution networks.

Ahmed, Kazi Ishrak [University of Tennessee, Knoxv↗
DOE OSTI2016

ON THE RR LYRAE STARS IN GLOBULARS. IV. ω CENTAURI OPTICAL UBVRI PHOTOMETRY

New accurate and homogeneous optical UBVRI photometry has been obtained for variable stars in the Galactic globular cluster ω Cen (NGC 5139). We secured 8202 CCD images covering a time interval of 24 years and a sky area of 84 × 48 arcmin. The current data were complemented with data available in the literature and provided new, homogeneous pulsation parameters (mean magnitudes, luminosity amplitudes, periods) for 187 candidate ω Cen RR Lyrae (RRLs). Among them we have 101 RRc (first overtone) and 85 RRab (fundamental) variables, and a single candidate RRd (double-mode) variable. Candidate Blazhko RRLs show periods and colors that are intermediate between the RRc and RRab variables, suggesting that they are transitional objects. A comparison of the period distribution and the Bailey diagram indicates that RRLs in ω Cen show a long-period tail not present in typical Oosterhoff II (OoII) globulars. The RRLs in dwarf spheroidals and in ultra-faint dwarfs have properties between Oosterhoff intermediate and OoII clusters. Metallicity plays a key role in shaping the above evidence. These findings do not support the hypothesis that ω Cen is the core remnant of a spoiled dwarf galaxy. Using optical period–Wesenheit relations that are reddening-free and minimally dependent on metallicity we find a mean distance to ω Cen of 13.71 ± 0.08 ± 0.01 mag (semi-empirical and theoretical calibrations). Finally, we invert the I -band period–luminosity–metallicity relation to estimate individual RRLs’ metal abundances. The metallicity distribution agrees quite well with spectroscopic and photometric metallicity estimates available in the literature.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗