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At least 1,765 records · Page 98

Transitional Disks Associated with Intermediate-Mass Stars: Results of the SEEDS YSO Survey

Protoplanetary disks are where planets form, grow, and migrate to produce the diversity of exoplanet systems we observe in mature systems. Disks where this process has advanced to the stage of gap opening, and in some cases central cavity formation, have been termed pre-transitional and transitional disks in the hope that they represent intermediate steps toward planetary system formation. Recent reviews have focussed on disks where the star is of solar or sub-solar mass. In contrast to the sub-millimeter where cleared central cavities predominate, at H-band some T Tauri star transitional disks resemble primordial disks in having no indication of clearing, some show a break in the radial surface brightness profile at the inner edge of the outer disk, while others have partially to fully cleared gaps or central cavities. Recently, the Meeus Group I Herbig stars, intermediate-mass PMS stars with IR spectral energy distributions often interpreted as flared disks, have been proposed to have transitional and pre-transitional disks similar to those associated with solar-mass PMS stars, based on thermal-IR imaging, and sub-millimeter interferometry. We have investigated their appearance in scattered light as part of the Strategic Exploration of Exoplanets and Disks with Subaru (SEEDS), obtaining H-band polarimetric imagery of 10 intermediate-mass stars with Meeus Group I disks. Augmented by other disks with imagery in the literature, the sample is now sufficiently large to explore how these disks are similar to and differ from T Tauri star disks. The disk morphologies seen in the Tauri disks are also found for the intermediate-mass star disks, but additional phenomena are found; a hallmark of these disks is remarkable individuality and diversity which does not simply correlate with disk mass or stellar properties, including age, including spiral arms in remnant envelopes, arms in the disk, asymmetrically and potentially variably shadowed outer disks, gaps, and one disk where only half of the disk is seen in scattered light at H. We will discuss our survey results in terms of spiral arm theory, dust trapping vortices, and systematic differences in the relative scale height of these disks compared to those around Solar-mass stars. For the disks with spiral arms we discuss the planet-hosting potential, and limits on where giant planets can be located. We also discuss the implications for imaging with extreme adaptive optics instruments. Grady is supported under NSF AST 1008440 and through the NASA Origins of Solar Systems program on NNG13PB64P. JPW is supported NSF AST 100314. 0) in marked contrast to protoplanetary disks, transitional disks exhibit wide range of structural features1) arm visibility correlated with relative scale height in disk2) asymmetric and possibly variable shadowing of outer portions some transitional disks3) confirm pre-transitional disk nature of Oph IRS 48, MWC 758, HD 169142, etc.

Protoplanetary disks↗

Performance of an Achromatic Focal Plane Mask for Exoplanet Imaging Coronagraphy

Coronagraph technology combined with wavefront control is close to achieving the contrast and inner working angle requirements in the lab necessary to observe the faint signal of an Earth-like exoplanet in monochromatic light. An important remaining technological challenge is to achieve high contrast in broadband light. Coronagraph bandwidth is largely limited by chromaticity of the focal plane mask, which is responsible for blocking the stellar PSF. The size of a stellar PSF scales linearly with wavelength; ideally, the size of the focal plane mask would also scale with wavelength. A conventional hard-edge focal plane mask has a fixed size, normally sized for the longest wavelength in the observational band to avoid starlight leakage. The conventional mask is oversized for shorter wavelengths and blocks useful discovery space. Recently we presented a solution to the size chromaticity challenge with a focal plane mask designed to scale its effective size with wavelength. In this paper, we analyze performance of the achromatic size-scaling focal plane mask within a Phase Induced Amplitude Apodization (PIAA) coronagraph. We present results from wavefront control around the achromatic focal plane mask, and demonstrate the size-scaling effect of the mask with wavelength. The edge of the dark zone, and therefore the inner working angle of the coronagraph, scale with wavelength. The achromatic mask enables operation in a wider band of wavelengths compared with a conventional hard-edge occulter.

Focal Plane Mask↗

Multiple Satellite Observations of Cloud Cover in Extratropical Cyclones

Using cloud observations from NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer, and CloudSat-CALIPSO, composites of cloud fraction in southern and northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones are obtained for cold and warm seasons between 2006 and 2010, to assess differences between these three data sets, and between summer and winter cyclones. In both hemispheres and seasons, over the open ocean, the cyclone-centered cloud fraction composites agree within 5% across the three data sets, but behind the cold fronts, or over sea ice and land, the differences are much larger. To supplement the data set comparison and learn more about the cyclones, we also examine the differences in cloud fraction between cold and warm season for each data set. The difference in cloud fraction between cold and warm season southern hemisphere cyclones is small for all three data sets, but of the same order of magnitude as the differences between the data sets. The cold-warm season contrast in northern hemisphere cyclone cloud fractions is similar for all three data sets: in the warm sector, the cold season cloud fractions are lower close to the low, but larger on the equator edge than their warm season counterparts. This seasonal contrast in cloud fraction within the cyclones warm sector seems to be related to the seasonal differences in moisture flux within the cyclones. Our analysis suggests that the three different data sets can all be used confidently when studying the warm sector and warm frontal zone of extratropical cyclones but caution should be exerted when studying clouds in the cold sector.

imaging spectrometers↗

AMTD: Update of Engineering Specifications Derived from Science Requirements for Future UVOIR Space Telescopes

The Advance Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) project is in Phase 2 of a multiyear effort, initiated in FY12, to mature by at least a half TRL step six critical technologies required to enable 4 meter or larger UVOIR space telescope primary mirror assemblies for both general astrophysics and ultra-high contrast observations of exoplanets. AMTD uses a science-driven systems engineering approach. We mature technologies required to enable the highest priority science AND provide a high-performance low-cost low-risk system. To give the science community options, we are pursuing multiple technology paths. A key task is deriving engineering specifications for advanced normal-incidence monolithic and segmented mirror systems needed to enable both general astrophysics and ultra-high contrast observations of exoplanets missions as a function of potential launch vehicles and their mass and volume constraints. A key finding of this effort is that the science requires an 8 meter or larger aperture telescope

Stahl, H. Philip↗

Exoplanet Direct Imaging: Coronagraph Probe Mission Study EXO-C

Flagship mission for spectroscopy of ExoEarths is a long-term priority for space astrophysics (Astro2010). Requires 10(exp 10) contrast at 3 lambda/D separation, ( (is) greater than 10,000 times beyond HST performance) and large telescope (is) greater than 4m aperture. Big step. Mission for spectroscopy of giant planets and imaging of disks requires 10(exp 9) contrast at 3 lambda/D (already demonstrated in lab) and (is) approximately 1.5m telescope. Should be much more affordable, good intermediate step.Various PIs have proposed many versions of the latter mission 17 times since 1999; no unified approach.

RV planets↗

Iterative Atmospheric Correction Scheme and the Polarization Color of Alpine Snow

Characterization of the Earth's surface is crucial to remote sensing, both to map geomorphological features and because subtracting this signal is essential during retrievals of the atmospheric constituents located between the surface and the sensor. Current operational algorithms model the surface total reflectance through a weighted linear combination of a few geometry-dependent kernels, each devised to describe a particular scattering mechanism. The information content of these measurements is overwhelmed by that of instruments with polarization capabilities: proposed models in this case are based on the Fresnel reflectance of an isotropic distribution of facets. Because of its remarkable lack of spectral contrast, the polarized reflectance of land surfaces in the shortwave infrared spectral region, where atmospheric scattering is minimal, can be used to model the surface also at shorter wavelengths, where aerosol retrievals are attempted based on well-established scattering theories. In radiative transfer simulations, straightforward separation of the surface and atmospheric contributions is not possible without approximations because of the coupling introduced by multiple reflections. Within a general inversion framework, the problem can be eliminated by linearizing the radiative transfer calculation, and making the Jacobian (i.e., the derivative expressing the sensitivity of the reflectance with respect to model parameters) available at output. We present a general methodology based on a Gauss-Newton iterative search, which automates this procedure and eliminates de facto the need of an ad hoc atmospheric correction. In this case study we analyze the color variations in the polarized reflectance measured by the NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies Research Scanning Polarimeter during a survey of late-season snowfields in the High Sierra. This insofar unique dataset presents challenges linked to the rugged topography associated with the alpine environment and a likely high water content due to melting. The analysis benefits from ancillary information provided by the NASA Langley High Spectral Resolution Lidar deployed on the same aircraft. The results obtained from the iterative scheme are contrasted against the surface polarized reflectance obtained ignoring multiple reflections, via the simplistic subtraction of the atmospheric scattering contribution. Finally, the retrieved reflectance is modeled after the scattering properties of a dense collection of ice crystals at the surface. Confirming that the polarized reflectance of snow is spectrally flat would allow to extend the techniques already in use for polarimetric retrievals of aerosol properties over land to the large portion of snow-covered pixels plaguing orbital and suborbital observations.

Polarized BRDF↗

The Advanced Technology Large-Aperture Space Telescope (ATLAST) Technology Roadmap

We present the key technologies and capabilities that will enable a future, large-aperture ultravioletopticalinfrared (UVOIR) space observatory. These include starlight suppression systems, vibration isolation and control systems, lightweight mirror segments, detector systems, and mirror coatings. These capabilities will provide major advances over current and near-future observatories for sensitivity, angular resolution, and starlight suppression. The goals adopted in our study for the starlight suppression system are 10-10 contrast with an inner working angle of 40 milliarcsec and broad bandpass. We estimate that a vibration and isolation control system that achieves a total system vibration isolation of 140 dB for a vibration-isolated mass of 5000 kg is required to achieve the high wavefront error stability needed for exoplanet coronagraphy. Technology challenges for lightweight mirror segments include diffraction-limited optical quality and high wavefront error stability as well as low cost, low mass, and rapid fabrication. Key challenges for the detector systems include visible-blind, high quantum efficiency UV arrays, photon counting visible and NIR arrays for coronagraphic spectroscopy and starlight wavefront sensing and control, and detectors with deep full wells with low persistence and radiation tolerance to enable transit imaging and spectroscopy at all wavelengths. Finally, mirror coatings with high reflectivity ( 90), high uniformity ( 1) and low polarization ( 1) that are scalable to large diameter mirror substrates will be essential for ensuring that both high throughput UV observations and high contrast observations can be performed by the same observatory.

Telescope↗

A Future Large-Aperture UVOIR Space Observatory: Key Technologies and Capabilities

We present the key technologies and capabilities that will enable a future, large-aperture ultravioletopticalinfrared (UVOIR) space observatory. These include starlight suppression systems, vibration isolation and control systems, lightweight mirror segments, detector systems, and mirror coatings. These capabilities will provide major advances over current and near-future observatories for sensitivity, angular resolution, and starlight suppression. The goals adopted in our study for the starlight suppression system are 10-10 contrast with an inner working angle of 20 milliarcsec and broad bandpass. We estimate that a vibration and isolation control system that achieves a total system vibration isolation of 140 dB for a vibration-isolated mass of 5000 kg is required to achieve the high wavefront error stability needed for exoplanet coronagraphy. Technology challenges for lightweight mirror segments include diffraction-limited optical quality and high wavefront error stability as well as low cost, low mass, and rapid fabrication. Key challenges for the detector systems include visible-blind, high quantum efficiency UV arrays, photon counting visible and NIR arrays for coronagraphic spectroscopy and starlight wavefront sensing and control, and detectors with deep full wells with low persistence and radiation tolerance to enable transit imaging and spectroscopy at all wavelengths. Finally, mirror coatings with high reflectivity ( 90), high uniformity ( 1) and low polarization ( 1) that are scalable to large diameter mirror substrates will be essential for ensuring that both high throughput UV observations and high contrast observations can be performed by the same observatory.

Instrument↗

Nondestructive Evaluation (NDE) for Inspection of Composite Sandwich Structures

Composite honeycomb structures are widely used in aerospace applications due to their low weight and high strength advantages. Developing nondestructive evaluation (NDE) inspection methods are essential for their safe performance. Flash thermography is a commonly used technique for composite honeycomb structure inspections due to its large area and rapid inspection capability. Flash thermography is shown to be sensitive for detection of face sheet impact damage and face sheet to core disbond. Data processing techniques, using principal component analysis to improve the defect contrast, are discussed. Limitations to the thermal detection of the core are investigated. In addition to flash thermography, X-ray computed tomography is used. The aluminum honeycomb core provides excellent X-ray contrast compared to the composite face sheet. The X-ray CT technique was used to detect impact damage, core crushing, and skin to core disbonds. Additionally, the X-ray CT technique is used to validate the thermography results.

Zalameda, Joseph N.↗

Analytic Ballistic Performance Model of Whipple Shields

The dual-wall, Whipple shield is the shield of choice for lightweight, long-duration flight. The shield uses an initial sacrificial wall to initiate fragmentation and melt an impacting threat that expands over a void before hitting a subsequent shield wall of a critical component. The key parameters to this type of shield are the rear wall and its mass which stops the debris, as well as the minimum shock wave strength generated by the threat particle impact of the sacrificial wall and the amount of room that is available for expansion. Ensuring the shock wave strength is sufficiently high to achieve large scale fragmentation/melt of the threat particle enables the expansion of the threat and reduces the momentum flux of the debris on the rear wall. Three key factors in the shock wave strength achieved are the thickness of the sacrificial wall relative to the characteristic dimension of the impacting particle, the density and material cohesion contrast of the sacrificial wall relative to the threat particle and the impact speed. The mass of the rear wall and the sacrificial wall are desirable to minimize for launch costs making it important to have an understanding of the effects of density contrast and impact speed. An analytic model is developed here, to describe the influence of these three key factors. In addition this paper develops a description of a fourth key parameter related to fragmentation and its role in establishing the onset of projectile expansion.

Miller, J. E.↗

Classification Scheme for Diverse Sedimentary and Igneous Rocks Encountered by MSL in Gale Crater

The Curiosity Rover landed in a lithologically and geochemically diverse region of Mars. We present a recommended rock classification framework based on terrestrial schemes, and adapted for the imaging and analytical capabilities of MSL as well as for rock types distinctive to Mars (e.g., high Fe sediments). After interpreting rock origin from textures, i.e., sedimentary (clastic, bedded), igneous (porphyritic, glassy), or unknown, the overall classification procedure (Fig 1) involves: (1) the characterization of rock type according to grain size and texture; (2) the assignment of geochemical modifiers according to Figs 3 and 4; and if applicable, in depth study of (3) mineralogy and (4) geologic/stratigraphic context. Sedimentary rock types are assigned by measuring grains in the best available resolution image (Table 1) and classifying according to the coarsest resolvable grains as conglomerate/breccia, (coarse, medium, or fine) sandstone, silt-stone, or mudstone. If grains are not resolvable in MAHLI images, grains in the rock are assumed to be silt sized or smaller than surface dust particles. Rocks with low color contrast contrast between grains (e.g., Dismal Lakes, sol 304) are classified according to minimum size of apparent grains from surface roughness or shadows outlining apparent grains. Igneous rocks are described as intrusive or extrusive depending on crystal size and fabric. Igneous textures may be described as granular, porphyritic, phaneritic, aphyric, or glassy depending on crystal size. Further descriptors may include terms such as vesicular or cumulate textures.

Schmidt, M. E.↗

Advanced Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) Project: 3.0 Year Status

Advanced Mirror Technology Development (AMTD) is a funded NASA Strategic Astrophysics Technology project. Begun in 2011, we are in Phase 2 of a multi-year effort. Our objective is to mature towards TRL6 critical technologies needed to produce 4-m or larger flight-qualified UVOIR mirrors by 2018 so that a viable astronomy mission can be considered by the 2020 Decadal Review. The developed technology must enable missions capable of both general astrophysics and ultra-high contrast observations of exoplanets. Just as JWST's architecture was driven by launch vehicle, a future UVOIR mission's architecture (monolithic, segmented or interferometric) will depend on capacities of future launch vehicles (and budget). Since we cannot predict the future, we must prepare for all potential futures. Therefore, we are pursuing multiple technology paths. AMTD uses a science-driven systems engineering approach. We mature technologies required to enable the highest priority science AND result in a high-performance low-cost low-risk system. One of our key accomplishments is that we have derived engineering specifications for advanced normal-incidence monolithic and segmented mirror systems needed to enable both general astrophysics and ultra-high contrast observations of exoplanets missions as a function of potential launch vehicle and its inherent mass and volume constraints. Another key accomplishment is that we have matured our technology by building and testing hardware. To demonstrate stacked core technology, we built a 400 mm thick mirror. Currently, to demonstrate lateral scalability, we are manufacturing a 1.5 meter mirror. To assist in architecture trade studies, the Engineering team develops Structural, Thermal and Optical Performance (STOP) models of candidate mirror assembly systems including substrates, structures, and mechanisms. These models are validated by test of full- and subscale components in relevant thermo-vacuum environments. Specific analyses include: maximum mirror substrate size, first fundamental mode frequency (i.e., stiffness) and mass required to fabricate without quilting, survive launch, and achieve stable pointing and maximum thermal time constant.

Stahl, H. Philip↗

Fluvial to Lacustrine Facies Transitions in Gale Crater, Mars

NASA's Curiosity rover has documented predominantly fluvial sedimentary rocks along its path from the landing site to the toe of the Peace Vallis alluvial fan (0.5 km to the east) and then along its 8 km traverse across Aeolis Palus to the base of Aeolis Mons (Mount Sharp). Lacustrine facies have been identified at the toe of the Peace Vallis fan and in the lowermost geological unit exposed on Aeolis Mons. These two depositional systems provide end members for martian fluvial/alluvial-lacustrine facies models. The Peace Vallis system consisted of an 80 square kilometers alluvial fan with decimeter-thick, laterally continuous fluvial sandstones with few sedimentary structures. The thin lacustrine unit associated with the fan is interpreted as deposited in a small lake associated with fan runoff. In contrast, fluvial facies exposed over most of Curiosity's traverse to Aeolis Mons consist of sandstones with common dune-scale cross stratification (including trough cross stratification), interbedded conglomerates, and rare paleochannels. Along the southwest portion of the traverse, sandstone facies include south-dipping meter-scale clinoforms that are interbedded with finer-grained mudstone facies, interpreted as lacustrine. Sedimentary structures in these deposits are consistent with deltaic deposits. Deltaic deposition is also suggested by the scale of fluvial to lacustrine facies transitions, which occur over greater than 100 m laterally and greater than 10 m vertically. The large scale of the transitions and the predicted thickness of lacustrine deposits based on orbital mapping require deposition in a substantial river-lake system over an extended interval of time. Thus, the lowermost, and oldest, sedimentary rocks in Gale Crater suggest the presence of substantial fluvial flow into a long-lived lake. In contrast, the Peace Vallis alluvial fan onlaps these older deposits and overlies a major unconformity. It is one of the youngest deposits in the crater, and requires only short-lived, transient flows.

Sumner, Dawn Y.↗

Zodiac II: Debris Disk Science from a Balloon

Zodiac II is a proposed balloon-borne science investigation of debris disks around nearby stars. Debris disks are analogs of the Asteroid Belt (mainly rocky) and Kuiper Belt (mainly icy) in our Solar System. Zodiac II will measure the size, shape, brightness, and color of a statistically significant sample of disks. These measurements will enable us to probe these fundamental questions: what do debris disks tell us about the evolution of planetary systems; how are debris disks produced; how are debris disks shaped by planets; what materials are debris disks made of; how much dust do debris disks make as they grind down; and how long do debris disks live? In addition, Zodiac II will observe hot, young exoplanets as targets of opportunity. The Zodiac II instrument is a 1.1-m diameter SiC (Silicone carbide) telescope and an imaging coronagraph on a gondola carried by a stratospheric balloon. Its data product is a set of images of each targeted debris disk in four broad visible-wavelength bands. Zodiac II will address its science questions by taking high-resolution, multi-wavelength images of the debris disks around tens of nearby stars. Mid-latitude flights are considered: overnight test flights in the US followed by half-global flights in the Southern Hemisphere. These longer flights are required to fully explore the set of known debris disks accessible only to Zodiac II. On these targets, it will be 100 times more sensitive than the Hubble Space Telescope's Advanced Camera for Surveys (HST/ACS); no existing telescope can match the Zodiac II contrast and resolution performance. A second objective of Zodiac II is to use the near-space environment to raise the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) of SiC mirrors, internal coronagraphs, deformable mirrors, and wavefront sensing and control, all potentially needed for a future space-based telescope for high-contrast exoplanet imaging.

suborbital↗

Laboratory Testing of a Phased Induced Amplitude Apodization (PIAA) Coronagraph

We present high-contrast images from laboratory testing of a Phase Induced Amplitude Apodization (PIAA) coronagraph at NASA's High Contrast Imaging Testbed (HCIT). Using a deformable mirror and wavefront estimation and control algorithms, we create a 'dark hole' in the monochromatic point-spread function with an inner working angle of (2.05 f lambda/D), with a mean intensity 3.5x10(exp -8). We discuss the contributions to this floor, and the techniques being developed to improve it. We also present simulations that investigate the effect of Lyot stops of various sizes, and conclude that a Lyot stop is necessary for 10(exp -9) performance but that an annular postapodizer is not necessary.

deformable mirror↗

Phase-Sensitive Coherence and the Classical-Quantum Boundary in Ghost Imaging

The theory of partial coherence has a long and storied history in classical statistical optics. the vast majority of this work addresses fields that are statistically stationary in time, hence their complex envelopes only have phase-insensitive correlations. The quantum optics of squeezed-state generation, however, depends on nonlinear interactions producing baseband field operators with phase-insensitive and phase-sensitive correlations. Utilizing quantum light to enhance imaging has been a topic of considerable current interest, much of it involving biphotons, i.e., streams of entangled-photon pairs. Biphotons have been employed for quantum versions of optical coherence tomography, ghost imaging, holography, and lithography. However, their seemingly quantum features have been mimicked with classical-sate light, questioning wherein lies the classical-quantum boundary. We have shown, for the case of Gaussian-state light, that this boundary is intimately connected to the theory of phase-sensitive partial coherence. Here we present that theory, contrasting it with the familiar case of phase-insensitive partial coherence, and use it to elucidate the classical-quantum boundary of ghost imaging. We show, both theoretically and experimentally, that classical phase-sensitive light produces ghost imaging most closely mimicking those obtained in biphotons, and we derived the spatial resolution, image contrast, and signal-to-noise ratio of a standoff-sensing ghost imager, taking into account target-induced speckle.

coherence theory↗

Plasma and Energetic Particle Behaviors During Asymmetric Magnetic Reconnection at the Magnetopause

The factors controlling asymmetric reconnection and the role of the cold plasma population in the reconnection process are two outstanding questions. We present a case study of multipoint Cluster observations demonstrating that the separatrix and flow boundary angles are greater on the magnetosheath than on the magnetospheric side of the magnetopause, probably due to the stronger density than magnetic field asymmetry at this boundary. The motion of cold plasmaspheric ions entering the reconnection region differs from that of warmer magnetosheath and magnetospheric ions. In contrast to the warmer ions, which are probably accelerated by reconnection in the diffusion region near the subsolar magnetopause, the colder ions are simply entrained by 𝐄×𝐁 drifts at high latitudes on the recently reconnected magnetic field lines. This indicates that plasmaspheric ions can sometimes play only a very limited role in asymmetric reconnection, in contrast to previous simulation studies. Three cold ion populations (probably H+, He+, and O+) appear in the energy spectrum, consistent with ion acceleration to a common velocity.

Cluster↗

Statistical Analysis of Large Simulated Yield Datasets for Studying Climate Effects

Many studies have been carried out during the last decade to study the effect of climate change on crop yields and other key crop characteristics. In these studies, one or several crop models were used to simulate crop growth and development for different climate scenarios that correspond to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and rainfall changes (Semenov et al., 1996; Tubiello and Ewert, 2002; White et al., 2011). The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; Rosenzweig et al., 2013) builds on these studies with the goal of using an ensemble of multiple crop models in order to assess effects of climate change scenarios for several crops in contrasting environments. These studies generate large datasets, including thousands of simulated crop yield data. They include series of yield values obtained by combining several crop models with different climate scenarios that are defined by several climatic variables (temperature, CO2, rainfall, etc.). Such datasets potentially provide useful information on the possible effects of different climate change scenarios on crop yields. However, it is sometimes difficult to analyze these datasets and to summarize them in a useful way due to their structural complexity; simulated yield data can differ among contrasting climate scenarios, sites, and crop models. Another issue is that it is not straightforward to extrapolate the results obtained for the scenarios to alternative climate change scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols. Additional dynamic crop model simulations for new climate change scenarios are an option but this approach is costly, especially when a large number of crop models are used to generate the simulated data, as in AgMIP. Statistical models have been used to analyze responses of measured yield data to climate variables in past studies (Lobell et al., 2011), but the use of a statistical model to analyze yields simulated by complex process-based crop models is a rather new idea. We demonstrate herewith that statistical methods can play an important role in analyzing simulated yield data sets obtained from the ensembles of process-based crop models. Formal statistical analysis is helpful to estimate the effects of different climatic variables on yield, and to describe the between-model variability of these effects.

climate↗