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Observations of Land Surface Variability Using Passive Microwave Sensing

Understanding the global variability of land surface wetness (soil moisture), skin temperature, and related surface fluxes of heat and moisture is key to assessing the importance of the land surface in influencing climate. The feasibility of producing model estimates of these quantities is being studied as part of the International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project (ISLSCP) Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP). In the GSWP approach, meteorological observations and analyses are used to drive global circulation models. Satellite measurements can provide independent estimates of key land surface parameters that are needed for initializing and validating the climate models and for monitoring long-term change. Satellite observations of the land surface can also be assimilated into soil models to estimate moisture in the root zone. In our research, passive microwave satellite data recorded during 1978-1987 from the Nimbus-7 Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) are being used to examine spatial and temporal trends in surface soil moisture, vegetation, and temperature. These data include observations at C and X bands (6.6 and 10.7 GHz), which are not available on the current Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and are precursors to data that will become available from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR) on Advanced Earth Observing Satellite (ADEOS-II) and Earth Observing System (EOS) PM1 in the year 2000. A chart shows a time-series of SMMR-derived surface temperature, T-e and surface soil moisture M, retrieved on a 0.5 deg x 0.5 deg grid and further averaged over a 4 deg x 10 deg study region in the African Sahel. Also shown are National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) model outputs of surface temperature, T-sfc, and soil wetness, Soil-w. The variables have been scaled to have similar dynamic ranges on the plots. The NCEP data from the NCEP Reanalysis Project are monthly averages on a 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg grid averaged over the 4 deg x 10 deg study area. Comparisons of SMMR retrievals with forecast model output show the potential of the satellite data for validating model output and monitoring long-term trends. Continuing work will extend these results to other regions to validate the retrievals more quantitatively. In preparation for the launch of AMSR, field experiments are planned in collaboration with the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Coordinated Enhanced Observing Period (CEOP) experiments to evaluate the satellite-derived soil moisture measurements and to demonstrate their usefulness for land surface hydrology and climate. Additional information is contained in the original.

Njoku, Eni G.↗

Shrub Seedling Experiment: Environmental Conditions, Vegetation Composition, and Seedling Recruitment, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2018-2019

In June 2018, a manipulative seed-addition experiment was established at the Council Mile Marker 71 (CN_MM71), Quartz Creek Burn Area (Kougarok Mile Marker 86), and Quartz Creek Unburned (Kougarok Mile Marker 80) sites on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. At each site, 5 replicate blocks were established in disturbed and intact upland tussock tundra (a total of 40 plots). Disturbed plots at Council were located on thermo-erosional (thermokarst) slopes, while disturbed plots in Quartz Creek were in burned areas affected by the Mingvk Lake fire in 2015. Using a split-plot design, an additional manual disturbance treatment (scraping to remove the surface bryophyte layer) was implemented across all blocks in June 2018. Seeds of five erect, deciduous shrubs were broadcast seeded into each plot in June 2018, and seedlings were censused in August 2018 and August 2019. The dataset includes ancillary measurements of plot-level environmental conditions (soil temperature, moisture, chemistry, thaw depth, microtopography, substrate thickness) and vegetation composition (NDVI and estimated percent cover by species and plant functional type). Dataset contains 10 csv data files (five data files with corresponding data dictionaries and one file-level metadata file) and one pdf user guide. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Measured and Modeled Vineyard Canopy Development and Water Use

Two publicly available applications relevant to vineyard irrigation management are described. OpenET is a satellite-based system that applies an ensemble of remote sensing methods to enable wide-area monitoring of evapotranspiration (ET) and related measures such as vegetation canopy development (via the NDVI spectral index). Data are freely available at one-quarter acre spatial resolution, and may be automatically aggregated to the individual block level. The satellite-based daily ET data were compared with in-situ eddy covariance measurements collected by micro-meteorological instrumentation in a Central Coast vineyard over a three-year period (2020-2022). Estimation uncertainties were reasonably consistent with prior reports for GRAPEX sites in the Central Valley and North Coast. The CropManage (CM) web application is a free software tool developed and operated U.C. Cooperative Extension for ET-based irrigation scheduling of major specialty crops. CM provides specific guidance for irrigation events in terms of irrigation system runtime. Applied water recommendations are based largely on estimated ET, derived from assumed canopy cover and associated crop coefficients, since the last irrigation or rainfall event. The application was recently adapted to vineyards by accounting for presence of winter/spring cover crop, and vine water stress imposed by regulated deficit irrigation. A 2022 field campaign involved 12 Central Coast and San Joaquin Valley commercial vineyards, and OpenET data were used to help evaluate CM output. Maximum percent vine cover was compared to estimates derived from average July satellite NDVI. The difference for 10 sites lacking midseason groundcover ranged from 0-7% between datasets with average agreement near 4%. Cumulative ET estimates agreed with OpenET to within 12% at the majority of sites, while larger discrepancies at the remaining sites may require additional data collection and analysis during the 2023 season. Satellite based systems such as OpenET have the potential to help parameterize CropManage and similar agricultural decision-support systems.

Measured↗

Simulations of short-term exposure to NO 2 and PM 2.5 to inform capture efficiency standards

The California building code requires all new or renovated residential dwelling units to have kitchen exhaust ventilation to manage air pollutants and moisture generated during cooking. Current performance requirements are specified as a minimum airflow and maximum sound level. This report presents an analysis to support consideration of adding a capture efficiency requirement to the code. The analysis uses a physics-based simulation model to calculate air pollutant concentrations in homes that result from cooking and the inflow of outdoor air, mediated by loss and removal process including deposition, dwelling unit ventilation, and the use of a range hood with varying levels of capture efficiency. Calculated pollutant concentrations are compared to relevant, health-based guidelines. The analysis considers the highest 1-hour concentration of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), which is a product of natural gas combustion and the highest 24-hour concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) which is emitted in substantial quantities from frying, broiling and grilling among other cooking activities. For NO 2 , the analysis considers cooking of a dinner for 3-4 persons consisting of pasta, meat sauce, a par-boiled vegetable, and baked garlic bread. For PM 2.5 , the analysis considers a day in which breakfast emitted particles at the 80th percentile and lunch and dinner entailed particle emissions at the 50th percentile of cooking emission events reported in the literature. Model simulations were performed to determine the level of range hood capture efficiency that will allow these cooking scenarios to occur in the vast majority (>99%) of new homes being built in California while maintaining pollutant concentrations below the health-based guidelines, if the range hood is used throughout cooking. All homes were assumed to have dwelling unit ventilation at the rate required in the building code. Simulation model input parameters were specified using a Monte Carlo approach to represent a range of housing characteristics, outdoor conditions, and indoor pollutant dynamics. Simulation results suggest that requiring a minimum capture efficiency of at least 70% is needed to avoid unacceptably high NO 2 (1-h average concentration of 100 ppb or higher) and at least 60% to avoid unacceptably high PM 2.5 (24-h average of 25 μg/m³ or higher). These results were driven by multi-family homes, which have a smaller volume of air to dilute any pollutants not captured and removed at the cooking area, resulting in higher concentrations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Aggregate Description of Semi-Arid Vegetation with Precipitation-Generated Soil Moisture Heterogeneity

Meteorological measurements in the Walnut Gulch catchment in Arizona were used to synthesize a distributed, hourly-average time series of data across a 26.9 by 12.5 km area with a grid resolution of 480 m for a continuous 18-month period which included two seasons of monsoonal rainfall. Coupled surface-atmosphere model runs established the acceptability (for modelling purposes) of assuming uniformity in all meteorological variables other than rainfall. Rainfall was interpolated onto the grid from an array of 82 recording rain gauges. These meteorological data were used as forcing variables for an equivalent array of stand-alone Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS) models to describe the evolution of soil moisture and surface energy fluxes in response to the prevalent, heterogeneous pattern of convective precipitation. The calculated area-average behaviour was compared with that given by a single aggregate BATS simulation forced with area-average meteorological data. Heterogeneous rainfall gives rise to significant but partly compensating differences in the transpiration and the intercepted rainfall components of total evaporation during rain storms. However, the calculated area-average surface energy fluxes given by the two simulations in rain-free conditions with strong heterogeneity in soil moisture were always close to identical, a result which is independent of whether default or site-specific vegetation and soil parameters were used. Because the spatial variability in soil moisture throughout the catchment has the same order of magnitude as the amount of rain failing in a typical convective storm (commonly 10% of the vegetation's root zone saturation) in a semi-arid environment, non-linearitv in the relationship between transpiration and the soil moisture available to the vegetation has limited influence on area-average surface fluxes.

White, Cary B.↗

Hybrid predictive modeling approach simulated evapotranspiration and ecosystem respiration data

This dataset includes measured data used for developing hybrid-predictive-modeling (HPM) approach and simulated evapotranspiration and ecosystem respiration data across several Fluxnet sites, SNOTEL sites and East River locations (Chen et al., 2020 in review). Fluxnet sites considered in this study include: CA-OAS, CA-OBS, US-NR1, US-TON, US-VAR, US-SRM, US-WHS, US-WKG. Snotel sites Butte (ER-BT), Porphyry Creek (ER-PK) and Schofield Pass (ER-SP) are included as well 16 east river locations with different vegetation types denoted by evergreen forests (EF), deciduous forests (DF), riparian shrublands (RS) and meadow grassland (MS). This data package includes: 1) A summary spread sheet of the sites and acronyms for data variables. 2) Processed Fluxnet datasets that are obtained from Fluxnet.fluxdata.org with HPM estimated evapotranspiration (ET) and ecosystem respiration (RECO). Trained models and metrics for parameters for the Fluxnet sites were added in an update on November 2, 2020; 3) Processed SNOTEL datasets obtained from www.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/ and HPM estimated ET and RECO; 4) Weather data at east river locations obtained from DAYMET (daymet.ornl.gov) as well as HPM estimated ET and RECO. NDVI datasets are obtained from Landsat 5, 7 and 8 on Google Earth Engine platform. Detailed QA/QC and sampling methods of measured data are available at the original data source.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effectiveness of nature-based solutions to reduce flooding in Quad Cities Metro Area (QCMA) using SWMM-HEC based flood model

Nature-based solutions (NbS) have gained significant attention as strategies for addressing urban environmental challenges, particularly since the establishment of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for 2030. However, the current research on NbS for urban flood management lacks comprehensive methodological approaches for identifying suitable areas and evaluating their effectiveness across different urban settings. Here, this study attempts to fill this gap by proposing a methodological framework integrating multi-criteria analysis with a SWMM-HEC-based hydrologic and hydraulic (HH) model to assess the suitability of NbS for the Quad Cities Metro Area (QCMA), consisting of Davenport, Bettendorf, Moline, and Rock Island. Eight NbS options-green roofs, rain gardens, infiltration trenches, permeable pavements, vegetative swales, dry detention basins, retention ponds, and rain barrels/cisterns - were considered based on volumetric efficiency and runoff reduction efficiency. The study reveals that implementing the proposed NbS could have substantially reduced flood depths in key historical flood events by 21% in 1993, 15% in 2008, 16% in 2011, 23% in 2014, 40% in 2019, and 10% in 2023. The findings highlight a critical trade-off between peak runoff and NbS implementation: while NbS effectively reduce flood impacts, they also enhance volumetric efficiency by approximately 43%. In high-density areas of the QCMA, flood depth reductions of around 20% suggest that NbS are a viable solution for dense urban environments with limited space. This shows the potential for integrating NbS into existing infrastructure, offering a promising approach for cities facing increasing flooding risks. The proposed methodology provides a practical framework for incorporating NbS into urban stormwater management, addressing gaps in optimizing NbS performance, and offering a pathway to scale their application in other urban areas with various environmental and social contexts.

CMIP6↗

Observed impacts of large wind farms on grassland carbon cycling

Deployment of wind energy is an essential renewable energy source that mitigates climate change and reduces air pollution. Over the last several decades, wind energy development has increased worldwide, expanding from ~20 to ~900 GW (gigawatt) during 2001-2022. Nonetheless, researchers have identified unintended consequences of wind energy on microclimate via turbine-altered surface-atmosphere exchanges of energy, momentum, mass, and trace gases. Based on multi-source observations and models, researchers also have drawn some conclusions that wind farms could warm the land surface, especially at night, at regional and continental scales. Consequently, altered microclimates at wind farms may affect vegetation productivity and carbon sequestration, two critically important ecosystem services related to carbon dynamics; however, such potential impacts and driving mechanisms remain poorly understood. Wind energy deployment is increasing globally to meet carbon neutrality goals, with upscaling of onshore wind power capacity projected to grow from 542 GW in 2018 to 1787 and 5044 GW by 2030 and 2050, respectively. Furthermore, increased demand for wind energy deployment may lead to much larger wind farms in open, expansive landscapes. In turn, a large array of geographically clustered wind turbines could collectively modify local microclimate and amplify turbine-atmosphere interactions, which, if large enough, may produce detectable impacts on ecosystem dynamics. Thus, identifying and quantifying the potential impacts of wind farms on carbon-related ecosystem services may facilitate sustainable wind energy development globally.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Enriched Background Isotope Study (EBIS): Analysis of 14C-Enriched Carbon Cycle in Soils and Litter at Forested Oak Ridge and AmeriFlux Sites, 2001-2011

These data provide a record of the multi-year, multi-institutional Enriched Background Isotope Studies (EBIS) projects that ran from 2000 through 2011. Elevated levels of 14C enriched CO2 in the air and soil atmosphere as well as leaf, stem, and root tissues were observed on the Oak Ridge Reservations (ORR) during the summer of 1999, and were attributed to local incinerator activities on and/or near the ORR (Trumbore et al. 2002). The isolated enrichment of the background levels of 14C in local forest ecosystem represented a unique opportunity to study unresolved carbon cycling processes such as the contribution of leaf versus root litter contributions to soil carbon accumulation, the rate of vertical transport of carbon into deep soil storage pools, and the differential contribution of physicochemical versus faunal driven processes to soil carbon cycling and sequestration. Leaf litter from the local enriched forest was transplanted to selected sites on the ORR and to selected AmeriFlux study sites to study soil C cycling across a range of soils and climates. The EBIS research projects provide data on C flux from litter sources to mineral soil sinks for United States eastern hardwood forests necessary for testing process hypotheses and judging efficacy of soil C cycling models. Experimental results from this study are being used to parameterize and refine existing carbon dynamics models, the quantification of the long-term fate of ecosystem carbon inputs and as a means to judge the potential for ecosystem carbon sequestration via enhance litter inputs to soil. EBIS observations support conclusions that intra- and inter-annual soil carbon cycling in hardwood forest soils should be characterized as a least a two-compartment system where surface leaf-litter and belowground root turnover represent primary carbon sources for organic-layer and mineral-soil carbon cycles, respectively. EBIS experiments were conducted to complete enriched litterfall maniplations in upland forests on Ultisol and Inceptisol soils of the Oak Ridge Reservation, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. We also collected additional14C-enriched materials for new experimental applications, and applied those materials to multiple AmeriFlux sites over a range of climatic, edaphic and biological conditions. The research provided data for addressing DOE's goal of understanding mechanisms controlling C flux, and for the improvement of models to be applied to policy discussions regarding the safe levels of greenhouse gases for the earth's system. There are 5 data files provided in comma separated (*.csv) format for vegetation, field litter, soil and air [C] and C isotope data from the EBIS studies and associated environmental data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

iButton and Tinytag snow temperature measurements at Teller 27 and Kougarok 64, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2021-2022

Snow temperature measurements were collected at the NGEE Arctic Teller Road Site at mile marker 27 (TL_MM27) and at the Kougarok Road Site at mile marker 64 (KG_MM64) on the Seward Peninsula. Data were collected from October 1, 2021 to August 16, 2022 using iButton Link DS1926-F5# Thermochron miniature temperature sensors (https://www.ibuttonlink.com/products/ds1921g) and Tinytag TGP-4017 internal sensors (https://www.micronmeters.com/product/tgp-4017-internal-sensor-40-to-85-c-40-f-to-185-f) deployed across the Kougarok and Teller sites. These sensors are a cost-efficient way to collect snowpack temperatures at a higher spatial resolution than what is normally achieved. iButton data were collected every 4 hours beginning on October 1, 2021. Tinytag data collection began between October 9 and October 12, 2021 depending on sensor installation date. Tinytag data were collected every 30 minutes. In total, data were collected from 236 iButtons and 30 Tinytags. This dataset contains four *.csv files of near-ground surface temperatures at various locations throughout each study site and four *.shp files of sensor locations. Data were collected throughout the snow cover season so that snowpack characteristics could be derived using the temperature data. Sensors were placed both inside and outside of vegetation to better capture the spatial variability of snow properties across each domain. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Satellite estimation of the surface energy balance, moisture availability and thermal inertia

A method for inferring the distribution of surface heat and evaporative fluxes and the ground moisture availability and thermal inertia (ground conductive capacity) is used to analyze two urbanized areas, Los Angeles and St. Louis. The technique employs infrared satellite temperature measurements in conjunction with a one-dimensional boundary-layer model. Results show that there is a marked reduction of evaporation and moisture availability and a corresponding elevation of sensible heat flux over urbanized areas and over cropped areas with low vegetative cover. Conversely, low heat flux and high evaporation characterize vegetated and, especially, forested areas. Warm urban centers appear directly related to a reduction in vegetation, which normally allows for a greater fraction of available radiant energy to be converted into latent heat flux. The distribution of thermal inertia was surprisingly ill-defined and its variation between urban and rural areas was quite small. Thus, the increased heat storage within the urban fabric, which has been proposed as the underlying cause of the nocturnal heat island, may be caused mainly by enhanced daytime surface heating which occurs because of surface dryness, rather than by large spatial variations in the conductivity of the surface.

Carlson, T. N.↗

Active microwave responses - An aid in improved crop classification

A study determined the feasibility of using visible, infrared, and active microwave data to classify agricultural crops such as corn, sorghum, alfalfa, wheat stubble, millet, shortgrass pasture and bare soil. Visible through microwave data were collected by instruments on board the NASA C-130 aircraft over 40 agricultural fields near Guymon, OK in 1978 and Dalhart, TX in 1980. Results from stepwise and discriminant analysis techniques indicated 4.75 GHz, 1.6 GHz, and 0.4 GHz cross-polarized microwave frequencies were the microwave frequencies most sensitive to crop type differences. Inclusion of microwave data in visible and infrared classification models improved classification accuracy from 73 percent to 92 percent. Despite the results, further studies are needed during different growth stages to validate the visible, infrared, and active microwave responses to vegetation.

Rosenthal, W. D.↗

Sensitivity of the normalized difference vegetation index to subpixel canopy cover, soil albedo, and pixel scale

An analytical framework is provided for examining the physically based behavior of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in terms of the variability in bulk subpixel landscape components and with respect to variations in pixel scales, within the context of the stochastic-geometric canopy reflectance model. Analysis focuses on regional scale variability in horizontal plant density and soil background reflectance distribution. Modeling is generalized to different plant geometries and solar angles through the use of the nondimensional solar-geometric similarity parameter. Results demonstrate that, for Poisson-distributed plants and for one deterministic distribution, NDVI increases with increasing subpixel fractional canopy amount, decreasing soil background reflectance, and increasing shadows, at least within the limitations of the geometric reflectance model. The NDVI of a pecan orchard and a juniper landscape is presented and discussed.

Jasinski, Michael F.↗

Direct and indirect methods for correcting the aerosol effect on remote sensing

Aspects of aerosol studies and remote sensing are reviewed. Aerosol scatters solar radiation before it reaches the surface and scatters and absorbs it again after it is reflected from the surface and before it reaches the satellite sensor. The effect is spectrally and spatially dependent. Therefore atmospheric aerosol (dust, smoke and air pollution particles) has a significant effect on remote sensing. Correction for the aerosol effect was never achieved on an operational basis though several case studies were demonstrated. Correction can be done in a direct way by deriving the aerosol loading from the image itself and correcting for it using the appropriate radiative transfer model or by an indirect way, by defining remote sensing functions that are less dependent on the aerosol loading. To some degree this was already achieved in global remote sensing of vegetation where a composite of several days of NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) measurements, choosing the maximal value, was used instead of a single cloud screened value. The Atmospheric Resistant Vegetation Index (ARVI) introduced recently for the NASA Earth Observing System EOS-MODIS is the most appropriate example of indirect correction, where the index is defined in such a way that the atmospheric effect in the blue spectral channel cancels to a large degree the atmospheric in the red channel in computations of a vegetation index. Atmospheric corrections can also use aerosol climatology and ground based instrumentation.

Kaufman, Yoram J.↗

On the Capabilities of Using AIRSAR Data in Surface Energy/Water Balance Studies

In this paper an algorithm is described that allows derivation of three fundamental parameters from synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data: soil moisture, soil roughness, and canopy water content, accounting for the effects of vegetation cover by using optical (Landsat) data as auxiliary. The capabilities and limitations of the data and algorithms are discussed, as well as possibilities to use these data in energy/water balance modeling studies. All of the data used in this study was acquired as part of the European Field Experiment in a Desertification Threatened Area.

Moreno, Jose F.↗

Microbial structural diversity estimated by dilution-extinction of phenotypic traits and T-RFLP analysis along a land-use intensification gradient

The present work tested whether the relationship between functional traits and inoculum density reflected structural diversity in bacterial communities from a land-use intensification gradient applying a mathematical model. Terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP) analysis was also performed to provide an independent assessment of species richness. Successive 10-fold dilutions of a soil suspension were inoculated onto Biolog GN(R) microplates. Soil bacterial density was determined by total cell and plate counts. The relationship between phenotypic traits and inoculum density fit the model, allowing the estimation of maximal phenotypic potential (Rmax) and inoculum density (KI) at which Rmax will be half-reduced. Though Rmax decreased with time elapsed since clearing of native vegetation, KI remained high in two of the disturbed sites. The genetic pool of bacterial community did not experience a significant reduction, but the active fraction responding in the Biolog assay was adversely affected, suggesting a reduction in the functional potential. c2004 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

NASA Center KSC↗

Toward Improved Land Surface Initialization in Support of Regional WRF Forecasts at the Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS)

SPoRT/SERVIR/RCMRD/KMS Collaboration: Builds off strengths of each organization. SPoRT: Transition of satellite, modeling and verification capabilities; SERVIR‐Africa/RCMRD: International capacity-building expertise; KMS: Operational organization with regional weather forecasting expertise in East Africa. Hypothesis: Improved land‐surface initialization over Eastern Africa can lead to better temperature, moisture, and ultimately precipitation forecasts in NWP models. KMS currently initializes Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model with NCEP/Global Forecast System (GFS) model 0.5‐deg initial / boundary condition data. LIS will provide much higher‐resolution land‐surface data at a scale more representative to regional WRF configuration. Future implementation of real‐time NESDIS/VIIRS vegetation fraction to further improve land surface representativeness.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

Ohio River Basin Water Resources: Monitoring Flash Drought Potential and Quantifying the Hydrologic Impacts in the Ohio River Basin

Flash drought conditions emerge in a matter of weeks following persistent weather anomalies, such as high temperatures or large vapor pressure deficits, that drive increased evaporative demand. Vegetation response rapidly depletes soil moisture, threatening surface water supplies, triggering significant crop loss, and increasing wildfire risk. Drought indices sensitive to flash drought are currently not included in drought forecast models in the Ohio River Basin (ORB). The team assessed and compared drought indices, gauge-based data, and satellite measurements over the course of the September 2019 flash drought event in the Ohio River Basin to investigate environmental fingerprints throughout flash drought evolution. Potential leading flash drought indicators were compared to the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to aid the National Weather Service (NWS) Ohio River Forecast Center and Kentucky Climate Center in producing early warning flash drought forecasts. These drought indices included Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and Landscape Evaporative Response Index (LERI) (derived from Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)). Drought index behavior inherently varies based on parameters incorporated - EDDI measures evaporative demand through potential evapotranspiration, and demonstrates more variations due to sensitivity to seasonal changes in evaporative demand throughout the 2010-2019 study period. Conversely, LERI measures evaporative response through actual evapotranspiration, representing different environmental changes. Soil moisture response was evaluated using Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) L-band radiometer data and Kentucky Mesonet gauge-based measurements. This analysis enables climatologists and weather forecasters to keep decision-makers and stakeholders better informed about drought risks, and to implement the appropriate actions for preparation of drought onset.

Adelaide Schmid↗