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At least 1,747 records · Page 97
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2016

Data Analysis Approaches for the Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization Toolkit

In the past decades, several numerical simulation codes have been employed to simulate accident dynamics (e.g., RELAP5-3D, RELAP-7, MELCOR, MAAP). In order to evaluate the impact of uncertainties into accident dynamics, several stochastic methodologies have been coupled with these codes. These stochastic methods range from classical Monte-Carlo and Latin Hypercube sampling to stochastic polynomial methods. Similar approaches have been introduced into the risk and safety community where stochastic methods (such as RAVEN, ADAPT, MCDET, ADS) have been coupled with safety analysis codes in order to evaluate the safety impact of timing and sequencing of events. These approaches are usually called Dynamic PRA or simulation-based PRA methods. These uncertainties and safety methods usually generate a large number of simulation runs (database storage may be on the order of gigabytes or higher). The scope of this paper is to present a broad overview of methods and algorithms that can be used to analyze and extract information from large data sets containing time dependent data. In this context, “extracting information” means constructing input-output correlations, finding commonalities, and identifying outliers. Some of the algorithms presented here have been developed or are under development within the RAVEN statistical framework.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Status on the Development of a Modeling and Simulation Framework for the Economic Assessment of Nuclear Hybrid Energy

Continued effort to design and build a modeling and simulation framework to assess the economic viability of Nuclear Hybrid Energy Systems (NHES) was undertaken in fiscal year (FY) 2016. The purpose of this report is to document the various tasks associated with the development of such a framework and to provide a status of their progress. Several tasks have been accomplished. First, a synthetic time history generator has been developed in RAVEN, which consists of Fourier series and autoregressive moving average model. The former is used to capture the seasonal trend in historical data, while the latter is to characterize the autocorrelation in residue time series (e.g., measurements with seasonal trends subtracted). As demonstration, both synthetic wind speed and grid demand are generated, showing matching statistics with database. In order to build a design and operations optimizer in RAVEN, a new type of sampler has been developed with highly object-oriented design. In particular, simultaneous perturbation stochastic approximation algorithm is implemented. The optimizer is capable to drive the model to optimize a scalar objective function without constraint in the input space, while the constraints handling is a work in progress and will be implemented to improve the optimization capability. Furthermore, a simplified cash flow model of the performance of an NHES in the electric market has been developed in Python and used as external model in RAVEN to confirm expectations on the analysis capability of RAVEN to provide insight into system economics and to test the capability of RAVEN to identify limit surfaces. Finally, an example calculation is performed that shows the integration and proper data passing in RAVEN of the synthetic time history generator, the cash flow model and the optimizer. It has been shown that the developed Python models external to RAVEN are able to communicate with RAVEN and each other through the newly developed RAVEN capability called “EnsembleModel”.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Framework for an adaptive integrated observation system using a hierarchy of machine learning approaches

Focal Area(s): 1. Data acquisition enabled by machine learning, AI, and advanced methods including experimental/network design/optimization, and hardware-related efforts involving AI. 2. Insight gleaned from complex measurements using AI, big data analytics, and other advanced methods, including explainable AI and physics- or knowledge-guided AI Science Challenge and Rationale: Atmospheric processes are stochastic, occur at scales from the micrometer to many kilometers, and are constantly changing over time. Characterizing these interactions and associated environmental conditions using traditional measurement techniques is difficult and can take years to build statistics on atmospheric phenomena that occurs episodically. Developing new innovative approaches to modify sampling strategies in real-time would enable the routine collection of targeted measurements focused on a specific set of science questions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Note on the Probability of Initiation Problem

The purpose of this note is to draw attention to Pál’s derivation of the Pál Bell equation which is used by LLNL and LANL to model Probability of Initiation (POI) problems. Both laboratories credit the equation to Bell and Lee. Although the equation formulated by Bell and Lee and the equation derived by Pál appear to be the same, the derivation by Bell and Lee is flawed. Scattering, which was absent in Bell’s original formulation of a POI problem, was later introduced by Bell and Lee by simply replacing a fission term with a scattering term. Such a replacement, however, leads to an inaccurate average number v̅ of neutrons that is produced by a fission event. By approaching a POI problem from probabilistic point of view, Pál formulates the problem as a branching process that determines v̅ correctly. There are six reasons for writing this report. The first is to clarify the failing in Bell and Lee’s derivation. The second is to establish the origin of the equation used by the laboratories. The third is to elucidate the fixed point technique formulated by Mokhtar-Kharroubi for solving the Pál-Bell equation. The fourth is to derive the α eigenvalue that is associated with a time dependent Pál-Bell equation. The fifth is to show in Appendix A that the non-linear fission operator of the Pál-Bell equation is descended from the operator of the Galton-Watson process of stochastic theory. The sixth is to describe in Appendix B a second order positivity preserving technique that accelerates the convergence of the first order fixed point method developed by Mokhtar-Kharroubi.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Stochastic Optimal Power Flow Based on Data-Driven Distributionally Robust Optimization

We propose a data-driven method to solve a stochastic optimal power flow (OPF) problem based on limited information about forecast error distributions. The objective is to determine power schedules for controllable devices in a power network to balance operational cost and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) of device and network constraint violations. These decisions include scheduled power output adjustments and reserve policies, which specify planned reactions to forecast errors in order to accommodate fluctuating renewable energy sources. Instead of assuming the uncertainties across the networks follow prescribed probability distributions, we assume the distributions are only observable through a finite training dataset. By utilizing the Wasserstein metric to quantify differences between the empirical data-based distribution and the real data-generating distribution, we formulate a distributionally robust optimization OPF problem to search for power schedules and reserve policies that are robust to sampling errors inherent in the dataset. A multi-stage closed-loop control strategy based on model predictive control (MPC) is also discussed. A simpIe numerical example illustrates inherent tradeoffs between operational cost and risk of constraint violation, and we show how our proposed method offers a data-driven framework to balance these objectives.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2016

CSI 2264: CHARACTERIZING YOUNG STARS IN NGC 2264 WITH STOCHASTICALLY VARYING LIGHT CURVES

We provide CoRoT and Spitzer light curves and other supporting data for 17 classical T Tauri stars in NGC 2264 whose CoRoT light curves exemplify the “stochastic” light curve class as defined in 2014 by Cody et al. The most probable physical mechanism to explain the optical variability within this light curve class is time-dependent mass accretion onto the stellar photosphere, producing transient hot spots. Where we have appropriate spectral data, we show that the veiling variability in these stars is consistent in both amplitude and timescale with the optical light curve morphology. The veiling variability is also well-correlated with the strength of the He i 6678 Å emission line, predicted by models to arise in accretion shocks on or near the stellar photosphere. Stars with accretion burst light curve morphology also have variable mass accretion. The stochastic and accretion burst light curves can both be explained by a simple model of randomly occurring flux bursts, with the stochastic light curve class having a higher frequency of lower amplitude events. Members of the stochastic light curve class have only moderate mass accretion rates. Their Hα profiles usually have blueshifted absorption features, probably originating in a disk wind. The lack of periodic signatures in the light curves suggests that little of the variability is due to long-lived hot spots rotating into or out of our line of sight; instead, the primary driver of the observed photometric variability is likely to be instabilities in the inner disk that lead to variable mass accretion.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

THE Ĝ SEARCH FOR EXTRATERRESTRIAL CIVILIZATIONS WITH LARGE ENERGY SUPPLIES. IV. THE SIGNATURES AND INFORMATION CONTENT OF TRANSITING MEGASTRUCTURES

Arnold, Forgan, and Korpela et al. noted that planet-sized artificial structures could be discovered with Kepler as they transit their host star. We present a general discussion of transiting megastructures, and enumerate 10 potential ways their anomalous silhouettes, orbits, and transmission properties would distinguish them from exoplanets. We also enumerate the natural sources of such signatures. Several anomalous objects, such as KIC 12557548 and CoRoT-29, have variability in depth consistent with Arnold’s prediction and/or an asymmetric shape consistent with Forgan’s model. Since well-motivated physical models have so far provided natural explanations for these signals, the ETI hypothesis is not warranted for these objects, but they still serve as useful examples of how non-standard transit signatures might be identified and interpreted in a SETI context. Boyajian et al. recently announced KIC 8462852, an object with a bizarre light curve consistent with a “swarm” of megastructures. We suggest that this is an outstanding SETI target. We develop the normalized information content statistic M to quantify the information content in a signal embedded in a discrete series of bounded measurements, such as variable transit depths, and show that it can be used to distinguish among constant sources, interstellar beacons, and naturally stochastic or artificial, information-rich signals. We apply this formalism to KIC 12557548 and a specific form of beacon suggested by Arnold to illustrate its utility.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

INFRARED OBSERVATIONAL MANIFESTATIONS OF YOUNG DUSTY SUPER STAR CLUSTERS

The growing evidence pointing at core-collapse supernovae as large dust producers makes young massive stellar clusters ideal laboratories to study the evolution of dust immersed in a hot plasma. Here we address the stochastic injection of dust by supernovae, and follow its evolution due to thermal sputtering within the hot and dense plasma generated by young stellar clusters. Under these considerations, dust grains are heated by means of random collisions with gas particles which result in the appearance of infrared spectral signatures. We present time-dependent infrared spectral energy distributions that are to be expected from young stellar clusters. Our results are based on hydrodynamic calculations that account for the stochastic injection of dust by supernovae. These also consider gas and dust radiative cooling, stochastic dust temperature fluctuations, the exit of dust grains out of the cluster volume due to the cluster wind, and a time-dependent grain size distribution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

EXPLORING X-RAY BINARY POPULATIONS IN COMPACT GROUP GALAXIES WITH CHANDRA

We obtain total galaxy X-ray luminosities, L{sub X}, originating from individually detected point sources in a sample of 47 galaxies in 15 compact groups of galaxies (CGs). For the great majority of our galaxies, we find that the detected point sources most likely are local to their associated galaxy, and are thus extragalactic X-ray binaries (XRBs) or nuclear active galactic nuclei (AGNs). For spiral and irregular galaxies, we find that, after accounting for AGNs and nuclear sources, most CG galaxies are either within the ±1σ scatter of the Mineo et al. L{sub X}–star formation rate (SFR) correlation or have higher L{sub X} than predicted by this correlation for their SFR. We discuss how these “excesses” may be due to low metallicities and high interaction levels. For elliptical and S0 galaxies, after accounting for AGNs and nuclear sources, most CG galaxies are consistent with the Boroson et al. L{sub X}–stellar mass correlation for low-mass XRBs, with larger scatter, likely due to residual effects such as AGN activity or hot gas. Assuming non-nuclear sources are low- or high-mass XRBs, we use appropriate XRB luminosity functions to estimate the probability that stochastic effects can lead to such extreme L{sub X} values. We find that, although stochastic effects do not in general appear to be important, for some galaxies there is a significant probability that high L{sub X} values can be observed due to strong XRB variability.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Two massive white dwarfs from NGC 2323 and the initial–final mass relation for progenitors of 4–6.5 M{sub ⊙}

We observed a sample of 10 white dwarf candidates in the rich open cluster NGC 2323 (M50) with the Keck Low-Resolution Imaging Spectrometer. The spectroscopy shows eight to be DA white dwarfs, with six of these having high signal-to-noise ratio appropriate for our analysis. Two of these white dwarfs are consistent with singly evolved cluster membership, and both are high mass ∼1.07 M{sub ⊙}, and give equivalent progenitor masses of 4.69 M{sub ⊙}. To supplement these new high-mass white dwarfs and analyze the initial–final mass relation (IFMR), we also looked at 30 white dwarfs from publicly available data that are mostly all high-mass (≳0.9 M{sub ⊙}). These original published data exhibited significant scatter, and to test if this scatter is true or simply the result of systematics, we have uniformly analyzed the white dwarf spectra and have adopted thorough photometric techniques to derive uniform cluster parameters for their parent clusters. The resulting IFMR scatter is significantly reduced, arguing that mass-loss rates are not stochastic in nature and that within the ranges of metallicity and mass analyzed in this work mass loss is not highly sensitive to variations in metallicity. Lastly, when adopting cluster ages based on Y{sup 2} isochrones, the slope of the high-mass IFMR remains steep and consistent with that found from intermediate-mass white dwarfs, giving a linear IFMR from progenitor masses between 3 and 6.5 M{sub ⊙}. In contrast, when adopting the slightly younger cluster ages based on PARSEC isochrones, the high-mass IFMR has a moderate turnover near an initial mass of 4 M{sub ⊙}.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

SYSTEMATIC STUDIES OF SHOCK REVIVAL AND THE SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTIONS IN CORE-COLLAPSE SUPERNOVAE WITH PARAMETRIC PROGENITOR MODELS

We conducted one-dimensional and two-dimensional hydrodynamic simulations of post-shock revival evolutions in core-collapse supernovae, employing the simple neutrino light bulb approximation to produce explosions rather easily. In order to estimate the explosion energy, we took into proper account nuclear recombinations and fusions consistently with the equation of state for matter not in statistical equilibrium in general. The methodology is similar to our previous work, but is somehow improved. In this paper, we studied the influence of the progenitor structure on the dynamics systematically. In order to expedite our understanding of the systematics, we constructed six parametric progenitor models, which are different in masses of Fe iron core and Si+S layer, instead of employing realistic models provided by stellar evolution calculations, which are sometimes of stochastic nature as a function of stellar mass on the main sequence. We found that the explosion energy is tightly correlated with the mass accretion rate at shock revival irrespective of dimension and the progenitors with light iron cores but with rather high entropies, which have yet to be produced by realistic stellar evolution calculations, may reproduce the canonical values of explosion energy and nickel mass. The mass of the Si+S layer is also important in the mass accretion history after bounce, on the other hand; the higher mass accretion rates and resultant heavier cores tend to hamper strong explosions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

SIMULATION OF ENERGETIC PARTICLE TRANSPORT AND ACCELERATION AT SHOCK WAVES IN A FOCUSED TRANSPORT MODEL: IMPLICATIONS FOR MIXED SOLAR PARTICLE EVENTS

We use numerical solutions of the focused transport equation obtained by an implicit stochastic differential equation scheme to study the evolution of the pitch-angle dependent distribution function of protons in the vicinity of shock waves. For a planar stationary parallel shock, the effects of anisotropic distribution functions, pitch-angle dependent spatial diffusion, and first-order Fermi acceleration at the shock are examined, including the timescales on which the energy spectrum approaches the predictions of diffusive shock acceleration theory. We then consider the case that a flare-accelerated population of ions is released close to the Sun simultaneously with a traveling interplanetary shock for which we assume a simplified geometry. We investigate the consequences of adiabatic focusing in the diverging magnetic field on the particle transport at the shock, and of the competing effects of acceleration at the shock and adiabatic energy losses in the expanding solar wind. We analyze the resulting intensities, anisotropies, and energy spectra as a function of time and find that our simulations can naturally reproduce the morphologies of so-called mixed particle events in which sometimes the prompt and sometimes the shock component is more prominent, by assuming parameter values which are typically observed for scattering mean free paths of ions in the inner heliosphere and energy spectra of the flare particles which are injected simultaneously with the release of the shock.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Evolution of the proton velocity distribution due to stochastic heating in the near-sun solar wind

We investigate how the proton distribution function evolves when the protons undergo stochastic heating by strong, low-frequency, Alfvén-wave turbulence under the assumption that β is small. We apply our analysis to protons undergoing stochastic heating in the supersonic fast solar wind and obtain proton distributions at heliocentric distances ranging from 4 to 30 solar radii. We find that the proton distribution develops non-Gaussian structure with a flat core and steep tail. For r>5 R{sub S}, the proton distribution is well approximated by a modified Moyal distribution. Comparisons with future measurements from Solar Probe Plus could be used to test whether stochastic heating is occurring in the solar-wind acceleration region.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

EFFECT OF ADIABATIC FOCUSING ON THE DIFFUSION OF ENERGETIC CHARGED PARTICLES

An approximate analytic description of a diffusion coefficient, including the effect of adiabatic focusing, has been developed. This description is formulated with the aid of stochastic differential equations and the steady perturbation solution of the Fokker–Plank transport equation. The analytical formula is based on three important assumptions. First, the pitch-angle diffusion coefficient is set to be separable from the spatial coordinate and the pitch-angle cosine. Second, the spatial dependence of the ratio between the mean-free path and focusing length is assumed to be weak. Third, the pitch-angle distribution relaxes quickly to a steady state. The new analytic formula could be applied to calculate the spatial diffusion coefficient in the interplanetary and interstellar space.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

The NANOGrav nine-year data set: Limits on the isotropic stochastic gravitational wave background

We compute upper limits on the nanohertz-frequency isotropic stochastic gravitational wave background (GWB) using the 9 year data set from the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) collaboration. Well-tested Bayesian techniques are used to set upper limits on the dimensionless strain amplitude (at a frequency of 1 yr{sup −1}) for a GWB from supermassive black hole binaries of A{sub gw}<1.5×10{sup −15}. We also parameterize the GWB spectrum with a broken power-law model by placing priors on the strain amplitude derived from simulations of Sesana and McWilliams et al. Using Bayesian model selection we find that the data favor a broken power law to a pure power law with odds ratios of 2.2 and 22 to one for the Sesana and McWilliams prior models, respectively. Using the broken power-law analysis we construct posterior distributions on environmental factors that drive the binary to the GW-driven regime including the stellar mass density for stellar-scattering, mass accretion rate for circumbinary disk interaction, and orbital eccentricity for eccentric binaries, marking the first time that the shape of the GWB spectrum has been used to make astrophysical inferences. Returning to a power-law model, we place stringent limits on the energy density of relic GWs, Ω{sub gw}(f)h{sup 2}<4.2 × 10{sup −10}. Our limit on the cosmic string GWB, Ω{sub gw}(f)h{sup 2}<2.2 × 10{sup −10}, translates to a conservative limit on the cosmic string tension with Gμ<3.3×10{sup −8}, a factor of four better than the joint Planck and high-l cosmic microwave background data from other experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

SYSTEMATIC AND STOCHASTIC VARIATIONS IN PULSAR DISPERSION MEASURES

We analyze deterministic and random temporal variations in the dispersion measure (DM) from the full three-dimensional velocities of pulsars with respect to the solar system, combined with electron-density variations over a wide range of length scales. Previous treatments have largely ignored pulsars’ changing distances while favoring interpretations involving changes in sky position from transverse motion. Linear trends in pulsar DMs observed over 5–10 year timescales may signify sizable DM gradients in the interstellar medium (ISM) sampled by the changing direction of the line of sight to the pulsar. We show that motions parallel to the line of sight can also account for linear trends, for the apparent excess of DM variance over that extrapolated from scintillation measurements, and for the apparent non-Kolmogorov scalings of DM structure functions inferred in some cases. Pulsar motions through atomic gas may produce bow-shock ionized gas that also contributes to DM variations. We discuss the possible causes of periodic or quasi-periodic changes in DM, including seasonal changes in the ionosphere, annual variations of the solar elongation angle, structure in the heliosphere and ISM boundary, and substructure in the ISM. We assess the solar cycle’s role on the amplitude of ionospheric and solar wind variations. Interstellar refraction can produce cyclic timing variations from the error in transforming arrival times to the solar system barycenter. We apply our methods to DM time series and DM gradient measurements in the literature and assess their consistency with a Kolmogorov medium. Finally, we discuss the implications of DM modeling in precision pulsar timing experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

CHARACTERIZING X-RAY AND RADIO EMISSION IN THE BLACK HOLE X-RAY BINARY V404 CYGNI DURING QUIESCENCE

We present results from multi-wavelength simultaneous X-ray and radio observations of the black hole X-ray binary V404 Cyg in quiescence. Our coverage with NuSTAR provides the very first opportunity to study the X-ray spectrum of V404 Cyg at energies above 10 keV. The unabsorbed broadband (0.3–30 keV) quiescent luminosity of the source is 8.9 × 10{sup 32} erg s{sup −1} for a distance of 2.4 kpc. The source shows clear variability on short timescales (an hour to a couple of hours) in the radio, soft X-ray, and hard X-ray bands in the form of multiple flares. The broadband X-ray spectra obtained from XMM-Newton and NuSTAR can be characterized with a power-law model having a photon index of Γ = 2.12 ± 0.07 (90% confidence errors); however, residuals at high energies indicate spectral curvature significant at a 3σ confidence level with the e-folding energy of the cutoff as 20{sub −7}{sup +20} keV. Such curvature can be explained using synchrotron emission from the base of a jet outflow. Radio observations using the VLA reveal that the spectral index evolves on very fast timescales (as short as 10 minutes), switching between optically thick and thin synchrotron emission, possibly due to instabilities in the compact jet or stochastic instabilities in the accretion rate. We explore different scenarios to explain this very fast variability.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

STELLAR MASS–GAS-PHASE METALLICITY RELATION AT 0.5 ≤ z ≤ 0.7: A POWER LAW WITH INCREASING SCATTER TOWARD THE LOW-MASS REGIME

We present the stellar mass (M{sub ∗})–gas-phase metallicity relation (MZR) and its scatter at intermediate redshifts (0.5⩽z⩽0.7) for 1381 field galaxies collected from deep spectroscopic surveys. The star formation rate (SFR) and color at a given M{sub ∗} of this magnitude-limited (R≲24 AB) sample are representative of normal star-forming galaxies. For masses below 10{sup 9} M{sub ⊙}, our sample of 237 galaxies is ∼10 times larger than those in previous studies beyond the local universe. This huge gain in sample size enables superior constraints on the MZR and its scatter in the low-mass regime. We find a power-law MZR at 10{sup 8} M{sub ⊙} < M{sub ∗} < 10{sup 11} M{sub ⊙}: 12+log(O/H)=(5.83±0.19) +(0.30±0.02)log(M{sub ∗}/M{sub ⊙}). At 10{sup 9} M{sub ⊙} < M{sub ∗} < 10{sup 10.5} M{sub ⊙}, our MZR shows agreement with others measured at similar redshifts in the literature. Our power-law slope is, however, shallower than the extrapolation of the MZRs of others to masses below 10{sup 9} M{sub ⊙}. The SFR dependence of the MZR in our sample is weaker than that found for local galaxies (known as the fundamental metallicity relation). Compared to a variety of theoretical models, the slope of our MZR for low-mass galaxies agrees well with predictions incorporating supernova energy-driven winds. Being robust against currently uncertain metallicity calibrations, the scatter of the MZR serves as a powerful diagnostic of the stochastic history of gas accretion, gas recycling, and star formation of low-mass galaxies. Our major result is that the scatter of our MZR increases as M{sub ∗} decreases. Our result implies that either the scatter of the baryonic accretion rate (σ{sub M-dot }) or the scatter of the M{sub ∗}–M{sub halo} relation (σ{sub SHMR}) increases as M{sub ∗} decreases. Moreover, our measure of scatter at z=0.7 appears consistent with that found for local galaxies. This lack of redshift evolution constrains models of galaxy evolution to have both σ{sub M-dot }and σ{sub SHMR} remain unchanged from z=0.7 to z = 0.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗