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At least 1,747 records · Page 97
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

An Improved Statistical Point-source Foreground Model for the Epoch of Reionization

We present a sophisticated statistical point-source foreground model for low-frequency radio Epoch of Reionization (EoR) experiments using the 21 cm neutral hydrogen emission line. Motivated by our understanding of the low-frequency radio sky, we enhance the realism of two model components compared with existing models: the source count distributions as a function of flux density and spatial position (source clustering), extending current formalisms for the foreground covariance of 2D power-spectral modes in 21 cm EoR experiments. The former we generalize to an arbitrarily broken power law, and the latter to an arbitrary isotropically correlated field. This paper presents expressions for the modified covariance under these extensions, and shows that for a more realistic source spatial distribution, extra covariance arises in the EoR window that was previously unaccounted for. Failure to include this contribution can yield bias in the final power-spectrum and under-estimate uncertainties, potentially leading to a false detection of signal. The extent of this effect is uncertain, owing to ignorance of physical model parameters, but we show that it is dependent on the relative abundance of faint sources, to the effect that our extension will become more important for future deep surveys. Finally, we show that under some parameter choices, ignoring source clustering can lead to false detections on large scales, due to both the induced bias and an artificial reduction in the estimated measurement uncertainty.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2018

Deriving the Contribution of Blazars to the Fermi -LAT Extragalactic γ -ray Background at E > 10 GeV with Efficiency Corrections and Photon Statistics

Here, the Fermi Large Area Telescope (LAT) Collaboration has recently released the Third Catalog of Hard Fermi -LAT Sources (3FHL), which contains 1556 sources detected above 10 GeV with seven years of Pass 8 data. Building upon the 3FHL results, we investigate the flux distribution of sources at high Galactic latitudes ($|b| \gt 20^\circ $), which are mostly blazars. We use two complementary techniques: (1) a source-detection efficiency correction method and (2) an analysis of pixel photon count statistics with the one-point probability distribution function (1pPDF). With the first method, using realistic Monte Carlo simulations of the γ-ray sky, we calculate the efficiency of the LAT to detect point sources. This enables us to find the intrinsic source-count distribution at photon fluxes down to 7.5 × 10 –12 ph cm –2 s –1 . With this method, we detect a flux break at (3.5 ± 0.4) × 10 –11 ph cm –2 s –1 with a significance of at least 5.4σ. The power-law indexes of the source-count distribution above and below the break are 2.09 ± 0.04 and 1.07 ± 0.27, respectively. This result is confirmed with the 1pPDF method, which has a sensitivity reach of ~10 –11 ph cm –2 s –1 . Integrating the derived source-count distribution above the sensitivity of our analysis, we find that (42 ± 8)% of the extragalactic γ-ray background originates from blazars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Search for Neutrino Point-source Populations in 7 yr of IceCube Data with Neutrino-count Statistics

The presence of a population of point sources in a data set modifies the underlying neutrino-count statistics from the Poisson distribution. This deviation can be exactly quantified using the non-Poissonian template fitting technique, and in this work we present the first application of this approach to the IceCube high-energy neutrino data set. Using this method, we search in 7 yr of IceCube data for point-source populations correlated with the disk of the Milky Way, the Fermi bubbles, the Schlegel, Finkbeiner, and Davis dust map, or with the isotropic extragalactic sky. No evidence for such a population is found in the data using this technique, and in the absence of a signal, we establish constraints on population models with source-count distribution functions that can be described by a power law with a single break. Here, the derived limits can be interpreted in the context of many possible source classes. In order to enhance the flexibility of the results, we publish the full posterior from our analysis, which can be used to establish limits on specific population models that would contribute to the observed IceCube neutrino flux.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Zwicky Transient Facility Bright Transient Survey. II. A Public Statistical Sample for Exploring Supernova Demographics

Here we present a public catalog of transients from the Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) Bright Transient Survey, a magnitude-limited ( m < 19 mag in either the g or r filter) survey for extragalactic transients in the ZTF public stream. We introduce cuts on survey coverage, sky visibility around peak light, and other properties unconnected to the nature of the transient, and show that the resulting statistical sample is spectroscopically 97% complete at <18 mag, 93% complete at <18.5 mag, and 75% complete at <19 mag. We summarize the fundamental properties of this population, identifying distinct duration–luminosity correlations in a variety of supernova (SN) classes and associating the majority of fast optical transients with well-established spectroscopic SN types (primarily SN Ibn and II/IIb). We measure the Type Ia SN and core-collapse (CC) SN rates and luminosity functions, which show good consistency with recent work. About 7% of CC SNe explode in very low-luminosity galaxies ( M i > –16 mag), 10% in red-sequence galaxies, and 1% in massive ellipticals. We find no significant difference in the luminosity or color distributions between the host galaxies of SNe Type II and SNe Type Ib/c, suggesting that line-driven wind stripping does not play a major role in the loss of the hydrogen envelope from their progenitors. Future large-scale classification efforts with ZTF and other wide-area surveys will provide high-quality measurements of the rates, properties, and environments of all known types of optical transients and limits on the existence of theoretically predicted but as yet unobserved explosions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Harnessing the Population Statistics of Subhalos to Search for Annihilating Dark Matter

The Milky Way's dark matter halo is expected to host numerous low-mass subhalos with no detectable associated stellar component. Such subhalos are invisible unless their dark matter annihilates to visible states such as photons. One of the established methods for identifying candidate subhalos is to search for individual unassociated gamma-ray sources with properties consistent with the dark matter expectation. However, robustly ruling out an astrophysical origin for any such candidate is challenging. In this work, we present a complementary approach that harnesses information about the entire population of subhalos—such as their spatial and mass distribution in the Galaxy—to search for a signal of annihilating dark matter. Using simulated data, we show that the collective emission from subhalos can imprint itself in a unique way on the statistics of observed photons, even when individual subhalos may be too dim to be resolved on their own. Additionally, we demonstrate that, for the models we consider, the signal can be identified even in the face of unresolved astrophysical point-source emission of extragalactic and Galactic origin. Furthermore, this establishes a new search technique for subhalos that is complementary to established methods, and that could have important ramifications for gamma-ray dark matter searches using observatories such as the Fermi Large Area Telescope and the Cerenkov Telescope Array.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Missing Satellite Problem outside of the Local Group. II. Statistical Properties of Satellites of Milky Way–like Galaxies

We present a new observation of satellite galaxies around seven Milky Way (MW)–like galaxies located outside of the Local Group (LG) using Subaru/Hyper Suprime-Cam imaging data to statistically address the missing satellite problem. We select satellite galaxy candidates using magnitude, surface brightness, Sérsic index, axial ratio, FWHM, and surface brightness fluctuation cuts, followed by visual screening of false positives such as optical ghosts of bright stars. We identify 51 secure dwarf satellite galaxies within the virial radius of nine host galaxies, two of which are drawn from the pilot observation presented in Paper I. We find that the average luminosity function of the satellite galaxies is consistent with that of the MW satellites, although the luminosity function of each host galaxy varies significantly. We observe an indication that more massive hosts tend to have a larger number of satellites. Physical properties of the satellites such as the size–luminosity relation are also consistent with the MW satellites. However, the spatial distribution is different; we find that the satellite galaxies outside of the LG show no sign of concentration or alignment, while that of the MW satellites is more concentrated around the host and exhibits a significant alignment. As we focus on relatively massive satellites with M V < –10, we do not expect that the observational incompleteness can be responsible here. This trend might represent a peculiarity of the MW satellites, and further work is needed to understand its origin.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cosmic Reionization on Computers: Statistics, Physical Properties, and Environments of Lyman Limit Systems at z ~ 6

Lyman limit systems (LLSs) are dense hydrogen clouds with high enough H i column densities to absorb Lyman continuum photons emitted from distant quasars. Their high column densities imply an origin in dense environments; however, the statistics and distribution of LLSs at high redshifts still remain uncertain. In this paper, we use self-consistent radiative transfer cosmological simulations from the Cosmic Reionization on Computers (CROC) project to study the physical properties of LLSs at the tail end of cosmic reionization at z ~ 6. We generate 3000 synthetic quasar sight lines to obtain a large number of LLS samples in the simulations. In addition, with the high physical fidelity and resolution of CROC, we are able to quantify the association between these LLS samples and nearby galaxies. Our results show that the fraction of LLSs spatially associated with nearby galaxies increases with H i column density. Moreover, we find that LLSs that are not near any galaxy typically reside in filamentary structures connecting neighboring galaxies in the intergalactic medium (IGM). This quantification of the distribution and association of LLSs to large-scale structure informs our understanding of the IGM–galaxy connection during the "Epoch of Reionization," and provides a theoretical basis for interpreting future observations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical Validation of Multiple Related Data Sets—Case Study Using Interstellar Boundary Explorer Satellite Data

Abstract Space scientists often face the question of whether data collected by different instruments are measurements of the same source population. This paper proposes a statistical validation method for evaluating the agreement between such related data sets. It offers a detailed case study focused on validating a new data set from the Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) mission, which serves as a practical how-to guide for similar analyses. Since 2008, the IBEX satellite has been gathering data on heliospheric energetic neutral atoms (ENAs) while being exposed to various sources of background noise, such as cosmic rays and solar energetic particles. The IBEX mission initially released only a qualified triple-coincidence (qABC) data product, which was designed to provide observations of ENAs free of background contamination. Further measurements revealed that the qABC data were in fact susceptible to contamination, having relatively low ENA counts and high background rates. To mitigate this issue, the mission team recently considered releasing a certain qualified double-coincidence (qBC) data product, which has roughly twice the detection rate of the qABC data product. This paper presents a simulation-based validation of the new qBC data product against the already-released qABC data product. The results show that the qBCs can plausibly be said to be measuring the same source population as the qABCs up to an average absolute deviation of 3.6%. Visual diagnostics provide additional confirmation of source rate coherence across data products. The framework introduced here is general and can be applied to other validation problems both within and outside the field of space physics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Strong Coupling of Hydrodynamics and Reactions in Nuclear Statistical Equilibrium for Modeling Convection in Massive Stars

We build on the simplified spectral deferred corrections (SDC) coupling of hydrodynamics and reactions to handle the case of nuclear statistical equilibrium (NSE) and electron/positron captures/decays in the cores of massive stars. Our approach blends a traditional reaction network on the grid with a tabulated NSE state from a very large, ${\mathcal O }(100)$ nuclei network. We demonstrate how to achieve second-order accuracy in the simplified-SDC framework when coupling NSE to hydrodynamics, with the ability to evolve the star on the hydrodynamics time step. We discuss the application of this method to convection in massive stars leading up to core collapse. We also show how to initialize the initial convective state from a 1D model in a self-consistent fashion. All of these developments are done in the publicly available Castro simulation code and the entire simulation methodology is fully GPU-accelerated.

Explosive nucleosynthesis↗
DOE OSTI2017

High-resolution Statistics of Solar Wind Turbulence at Kinetic Scales Using the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission

Using data from the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) and Cluster missions obtained in the solar wind, we examine second-order and fourth-order structure functions at varying spatial lags normalized to ion inertial scales. The analysis includes direct two-spacecraft results and single-spacecraft results employing the familiar Taylor frozen-in flow approximation. Several familiar statistical results, including the spectral distribution of energy, and the sale-dependent kurtosis, are extended down to unprecedented spatial scales of ∼6 km, approaching electron scales. The Taylor approximation is also confirmed at those small scales, although small deviations are present in the kinetic range. The kurtosis is seen to attain very high values at sub-proton scales, supporting the previously reported suggestion that monofractal behavior may be due to high-frequency plasma waves at kinetic scales.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Statistical Standard Siren Measurement of the Hubble Constant from the LIGO/Virgo Gravitational Wave Compact Object Merger GW190814 and Dark Energy Survey Galaxies

We present a measurement of the Hubble constant H 0 using the gravitational wave (GW) event GW190814, which resulted from the coalescence of a 23 M ⊙ black hole with a 2.6 M ⊙ compact object, as a standard siren. No compelling electromagnetic counterpart has been identified for this event; thus our analysis accounts for thousands of potential host galaxies within a statistical framework. The redshift information is obtained from the photometric redshift (photo- z ) catalog from the Dark Energy Survey. The luminosity distance is provided by the LIGO/Virgo gravitational wave sky map. Since this GW event has the second-smallest localization volume after GW170817, GW190814 is likely to provide the best constraint on cosmology from a single standard siren without identifying an electromagnetic counterpart. Furthermore, our analysis uses photo- z probability distribution functions and corrects for photo- z biases. We also reanalyze the binary black hole GW170814 within this updated framework. We explore how our findings impact the H 0 constraints from GW170817, the only GW merger associated with a unique host galaxy. From a combination of GW190814, GW170814, and GW170817, our analysis yields H 0 =72.0$_{+12}^{–8.2}$ km s -1 Mpc -1 (68% highest-density interval, HDI) for a prior in H 0 uniform between [20 and 140] km s -1 Mpc -1 . The addition of GW190814 and GW170814 to GW170817 improves the 68% HDI from GW170817 alone by ~18%, showing how well-localized mergers without counterparts can provide a significant contribution to standard siren measurements, provided that a complete galaxy catalog is available at the location of the event.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Dual-band Ion-scale Waves in the Solar Wind: Statistical Properties and Comparison with Single-band Ion-scale Waves

We present a comprehensive statistical analysis of ion-scale waves including dual-band ion-scale waves (DBIWs) observed by the Parker Solar Probe in the solar wind. DBIWs are characterized by the simultaneous occurrence of distinct left- and right-handed polarized wave packets at higher and lower frequencies, respectively, in the spacecraft frame, implying the presence of bidirectionally propagating L-mode waves. We identify and compare DBIWs to single-band ion-scale waves (SBIWs) and investigate their spatial distributions, background magnetic field conditions, and associated inertial range turbulence characteristics. We find that DBIWs exhibit a strong preferential occurrence at heliocentric distances between 0.2 and 0.25 au (equivalently 43 and 54 R S ) in contrast to SBIWs, the occurrence rate of which peaks closer to the Sun and decreases with the heliocentric distance. DBIWs are also preferentially observed under conditions of strong Alfvénic turbulence, characterized by low magnetic compressibility and perpendicular-dominant fluctuations. These findings support a scenario in which stochastic ion heating via sufficiently large perpendicular Alfvénic fluctuation generates the ion temperature anisotropies required to excite bidirectional ion cyclotron waves. This work advances our understanding of kinetic wave generation in the solar wind and its connection to large-scale turbulence.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Idealized simulation study of the relationship of disdrometer sampling statistics with the precision of precipitation rate measurement

Due to the discretized nature of rain, the measurement of a continuous precipitation rate by disdrometers is subject to statistical sampling errors. Here, Monte Carlo simulations are employed to obtain the precision of rain detection and rate as a function of disdrometer collection area and compared with World Meteorological Organization guidelines for a 1 min sample interval and 95 % probability. To meet these requirements, simulations suggest that measurements of light rain with rain rates R ≤ 0.50 mm h-1 require a collection area of at least 6 cm × 6 cm, and for R = 1 mm h -1 , the minimum collection area is 13 cm × 13 cm. For R = 0.01 mm h -1 , a collection area of 2 cm × 2 cm is sufficient to detect a single drop. Simulations are compared with field measurements using a new hotplate device, the Differential Emissivity Imaging Disdrometer. The field results suggest an even larger plate may be required to meet the stated accuracy, likely in part due to non-Poissonian hydrometeor clustering.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Statistical and temporal characteristics of sawtooth events

Magnetospheric sawtooth events are characterized by periodic particle injections and magnetic dipolarizations spread quasi-simultaneously across a wide range of magnetic local times. We present a comprehensive statistical study of magnetospheric sawtooth events (STEs) during solar cycle 24 (2008–2016), extending previous catalogs and enabling solar cycle comparisons. Our results confirm that STEs predominantly occur during the rising and declining phases of the solar cycle, and are strongly associated with geomagnetic storms. Superposed epoch analysis reveals near-simultaneous particle injections across all magnetic local time sectors, but magnetic field dipolarization confined to the midnight region. These results support a scenario in which nightside tail reconnection and enhanced convection are the primary drivers of sawtooth oscillations. The localization of magnetic dipolarizations during STEs challenges global instability interpretations and suggests that STEs represent a stormtime substorm mode triggered under specific solar wind and magnetotail conditions. Superposed epoch analyses also show enhanced oxygen content in the magnetosphere during sawtooth events, but do not show a significant difference from geomagnetic storms that do not exhibit periodic behavior.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Regridding uncertainty for statistical downscaling of solar radiation

Abstract. Initial steps in statistical downscaling involve being able to compare observed data from regional climate models (RCMs). This prediction requires (1) regridding RCM outputs from their native grids and at differing spatial resolutions to a common grid in order to be comparable to observed data and (2) bias correcting RCM data, for example via quantile mapping, for future modeling and analysis. The uncertainty associated with (1) is not always considered for downstream operations in (2). This work examines this uncertainty, which is not often made available to the user of a regridded data product. This analysis is applied to RCM solar radiation data from the NA-CORDEX (North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment) data archive and observed data from the National Solar Radiation Database housed at the National Renewable Energy Lab. A case study of the mentioned methods over California is presented.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Nine time steps: ultra-fast statistical consistency testing of the Community Earth System Model (pyCECT v3.0)

The Community Earth System Model Ensemble Consistency Test (CESM-ECT) suitewas developed as an alternative to requiring bit wise identical output for quality assurance. This objective test provides a statistical measurement of consistency between an accepted ensemble created by small initial temperature perturbations and a test set of CESM simulations. Here, we extend the CESM-ECT suite with an inexpensive and robust test for ensemble consistency that is applied to Community Atmospheric Model (CAM) output after only nine model time steps. We suggest that adequate ensemble variability is achieved with instantaneous variable values at the ninth step, despite rapid perturbation growth and heterogeneous variable spread. We refer to this new test as the Ultra-Fast CAM Ensemble Consistency Test (UF-CAM-ECT) and demonstrate its effectiveness in practice, including its ability to detect small-scale events and its applicability to the Community Land Model (CLM).The new ultra-fast test facilitates CESM development, porting, and optimization efforts, particularly when used to complement information fromthe original CESM-ECT suite of tools.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Bit Grooming: statistically accurate precision-preserving quantization with compression, evaluated in the netCDF Operators (NCO, v4.4.8+)

Abstract. Geoscientific models and measurements generate false precision (scientifically meaningless data bits) that wastes storage space. False precision can mislead (by implying noise is signal) and be scientifically pointless, especially for measurements. By contrast, lossy compression can be both economical (save space) and heuristic (clarify data limitations) without compromising the scientific integrity of data. Data quantization can thus be appropriate regardless of whether space limitations are a concern. We introduce, implement, and characterize a new lossy compression scheme suitable for IEEE floating-point data. Our new Bit Grooming algorithm alternately shaves (to zero) and sets (to one) the least significant bits of consecutive values to preserve a desired precision. This is a symmetric, two-sided variant of an algorithm sometimes called Bit Shaving that quantizes values solely by zeroing bits. Our variation eliminates the artificial low bias produced by always zeroing bits, and makes Bit Grooming more suitable for arrays and multi-dimensional fields whose mean statistics are important. Bit Grooming relies on standard lossless compression to achieve the actual reduction in storage space, so we tested Bit Grooming by applying the DEFLATE compression algorithm to bit-groomed and full-precision climate data stored in netCDF3, netCDF4, HDF4, and HDF5 formats. Bit Grooming reduces the storage space required by initially uncompressed and compressed climate data by 25–80 and 5–65 %, respectively, for single-precision values (the most common case for climate data) quantized to retain 1–5 decimal digits of precision. The potential reduction is greater for double-precision datasets. When used aggressively (i.e., preserving only 1–2 digits), Bit Grooming produces storage reductions comparable to other quantization techniques such as Linear Packing. Unlike Linear Packing, whose guaranteed precision rapidly degrades within the relatively narrow dynamic range of values that it can compress, Bit Grooming guarantees the specified precision throughout the full floating-point range. Data quantization by Bit Grooming is irreversible (i.e., lossy) yet transparent, meaning that no extra processing is required by data users/readers. Hence Bit Grooming can easily reduce data storage volume without sacrificing scientific precision or imposing extra burdens on users.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

Multi-scale statistical analysis of coronal solar activity

Multi-filter images from the solar corona are used to obtain temperature maps that are analyzed using techniques based on proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) in order to extract dynamical and structural information at various scales. Exploring active regions before and after a solar flare and comparing them with quiet regions, we show that the multi-scale behavior presents distinct statistical properties for each case that can be used to characterize the level of activity in a region. Information about the nature of heat transport is also to be extracted from the analysis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗