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At least 1,747 records · Page 97

Development of a framework for sequential Bayesian design of experiments: Application to a pilot-scale solvent-based CO 2 capture process

In this paper, a methodology is developed for sequential design of experiments (SDoE) for process systems and applied to a solvent-based CO 2 capture system. In this approach, the prior knowledge of the system is used to prioritize process data collection at specific operating conditions. These data are then incorporated into a Bayesian inference methodology for updating a stochastic model by refining estimations of its underlying parameters, and the updated model is then used to generate the next set of test runs. Thus, the new knowledge obtained from the data is used to guide subsequent iterations of the experimental runs, ensuring that the overall data collection is maximally informative given that most experimental campaigns, especially at pilot or higher-scale plants, are costly, time-consuming, and resource-limited. The test run objective for this work was to minimize the maximum model prediction uncertainty for key output variables, but the methodology is generic and can be readily applied to other test run objectives. This methodology is applied to an aqueous monoethanolamine (MEA) pilot plant campaign at the National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC) in Wilsonville, Alabama, USA. The SDoE framework was utilized for two iterations, while collecting 18 sets of data representing different process conditions, and this resulted in an overall average reduction in uncertainty of approximately 50% in the prediction of CO 2 capture percentage. Moreover, 11 additional data sets were obtained with variation of absorber packing height for further model validation. This work shows the capability of the SDoE framework to maximize learning given limited resources, allowing for the reduction of model uncertainty, which is of great importance for many applications including reduction of technical risk associated with scale-up and economic analysis.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Science Writers' Guide to TERRA

The launch of NASA's Terra spacecraft marks a new era of comprehensive monitoring of the Earth's atmosphere, oceans, and continents from a single space-based platform. Data from the five Terra instruments will create continuous, long-term records of the state of the land, oceans, and atmosphere. Together with data from other satellite systems launched by NASA and other countries, Terra will inaugurate a new self-consistent data record that will be gathered over the next 15 years. The science objectives of NASAs Earth Observing System (EOS) program are to provide global observations and scientific understanding of land cover change and global productivity, climate variability and change, natural hazards, and atmospheric ozone. Observations by the Terra instruments will: provide the first global and seasonal measurements of the Earth system, including such critical functions as biological productivity of the land and oceans, snow and ice, surface temperature, clouds, water vapor, and land cover; improve our ability to detect human impacts on the Earth system and climate, identify the "fingerprint" of human activity on climate, and predict climate change by using the new global observations in climate models; help develop technologies for disaster prediction, characterization, and risk reduction from wildfires, volcanoes, floods, and droughts, and start long-term monitoring of global climate change and environmental change.

Source record↗

Human Research Program Space Radiation Standing Review Panel (SRP)

The Space Radiation Standing Review Panel (SRP) met at the NASA Johnson Space Center (JSC) on December 9-11, 2009 to discuss the areas of current and future research targeted by the Space Radiation Program Element (SRPE) of the Human Research Program (HRP). Using evidence-based knowledge as a background for identified risks to astronaut health and performance, NASA had identified gaps in knowledge to address those risks. Ongoing and proposed tasks were presented to address the gaps. The charge to the Space Radiation SRP was to review the gaps, evaluate whether the tasks addressed these gaps and to make recommendations to NASA s HRP Science Management Office regarding the SRP's review. The SRP was requested to evaluate the practicality of the proposed efforts in light of the demands placed on the HRP. Several presentations were made to the SRP during the site visit and the SRP spent sufficient time to address the SRP charge. The SRP made a final debriefing to the HRP Program Scientist, Dr. John B. Charles, on December 11, 2009. The SRP noted that current SRPE strategy is properly science-based and views this as the best assurance of the likelihood that answers to the questions posed as gaps in knowledge can be found, that the uncertainty in risk estimates can be reduced, and that a solid, cost-effective approach to risk reduction solutions is being developed. The current approach of the SRPE, based on the use of carefully focused research solicitations, requiring thorough peer-review and approaches demonstrated to be on the path to answering the NASA strategic questions, addressed to a broad extramural community of qualified scientists, optimally positioned to take advantage of serendipitous discoveries and to leverage scientific advances made elsewhere, is sound and appropriate. The SRP viewed with concern statements by HRP implying that the only science legitimately deserving support should be "applied" or, in some instances that the very term "research" might be frowned upon. We understand the desire of management to ensure that research stay focused on mission objectives, but the terms used are code words fraught with different meaning for scientists. Such expressions, taken at face value, convey a profoundly flawed view of science, can easily lead down counterproductive paths, and have the potential to irretrievably corrupt NASA requirements. The SRP understands and endorses the mandate to keep research efforts focused on the mission needs. However, thoughtful application of knowledge gained by understanding the mechanisms and pathways of biological effects cannot be replaced.

Woloschak, Gayle↗

Aladdin: Exploration and Sample Return from the Moons of Mars

Aladdin is a remote sensing and sample return mission focused on the two small moons of Mars, Phobos and Deimos. Understanding the moons of Mars will help us to understand the early history of Mars itself. Aladdin's primary objective is to acquire well documented, representative samples from both moons and return them to Earth for detailed analyses. Samples arrive at Earth within three years of launch. Aladdin addresses several of NASA's highest priority science objectives: the origin and evolution of the Martian system (one of two silicate planets with satellites) and the composition and nature of small bodies (the building blocks of the solar system). The Aladdin mission has been selected as a finalist in both the 1997 and 1999 Discovery competitions based on the high quality of science it would accomplish. The equivalent of Aladdin's Phase A development has been successfully completed, yielding a high degree of technical maturity. Aladdin uses an innovative flyby sample acquisition method, which has been validated experimentally and does not require soft landing or anchoring. An initial phasing orbit at Mars reduces mission propulsion requirements, enabling Aladdin to use proven, low-risk chemical propulsion with good mass margin. This phasing orbit is followed by a five month elliptical mission during which there are redundant opportunities for acquisition of samples and characterization of their geologic context using remote sensing. The Aladdin mission is a partnership between Brown University, the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, Lockheed Martin Astronautics, and NASA Johnson Space Center.

Pieters, C.↗

Rapid Prototyping of an Aircraft Model in an Object-Oriented Simulation

A team was created to participate in the Mars Scout Opportunity. Trade studies determined that an aircraft provided the best opportunity to complete the science objectives of the team. A high fidelity six degree of freedom flight simulation was required to provide credible evidence that the aircraft design fulfilled mission objectives and to support the aircraft design process by providing performance evaluations. The team created the simulation using the Langley Standard Real-Time Simulation in C++ (LaSRS++) application framework. A rapid prototyping approach was necessary because the team had only three months to both develop the aircraft simulation model and evaluate aircraft performance as the design and mission parameters matured. The design of LaSRS++ enabled rapid-prototyping in several ways. First, the framework allowed component models to be designed, implemented, unit-tested, and integrated quickly. Next, the framework provides a highly reusable infrastructure that allowed developers to maximize code reuse while concentrating on aircraft and mission specific features. Finally, the framework reduces risk by providing reusable components that allow developers to build a quality product with a compressed testing cycle that relies heavily on unit testing of new components.

Kenney, P. Sean↗

The New NASA Orbital Debris Engineering Model ORDEM 3.0

The NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has released its latest Orbital Debris Engineering Model, ORDEM 3.0. It supersedes ORDEM 2.0. This newer model encompasses the Earth satellite and debris flux environment from altitudes of low Earth orbit (LEO) through geosynchronous orbit (GEO). Debris sizes of 10 microns through 1 m in non-GEO and 10 cm through 1 m in GEO are modeled. The inclusive years are 2010 through 2035. The ORDEM model series has always been data driven. ORDEM 3.0 has the benefit of many more hours from existing data sources and from new sources that weren't available to past versions. Returned surfaces, ground tests, and remote sensors all contribute data. The returned surface and ground test data reveal material characteristics of small particles. Densities of fragmentation debris particles smaller than 10 cm are grouped in ORDEM 3.0 in terms of high-, medium-, and lowdensities, along with RORSAT sodium-potassium droplets. Supporting models have advanced significantly. The LEO-to-GEO ENvironment Debris model (LEGEND) includes an historical and a future projection component with yearly populations that include launched and maneuvered intacts, mission related debris (MRD), and explosion and collision fragments. LEGEND propagates objects with ephemerides and physical characteristics down to 1 mm in size. The full LEGEND yearly population acts as an a priori condition for a Bayesian statistical model. Specific, well defined populations are added like the Radar Ocean Reconnaissance Satellite (RORSAT) sodium-potassium (NaK) droplets, recent major accidental and deliberate collision fragments, and known anomalous debris event fragments. For microdebris of sizes 10 microns to 1 mm the ODPO uses an in-house Degradation/Ejecta model in which a MLE technique is used with returned surface data to estimate populations. This paper elaborates on the upgrades of this model over previous versions highlighting the material density splits and consequences of that to the penetration risk to spacecraft.

Krisko, P. H.↗

Cassini Information Management System in Distributed Operations Collaboration and Cassini Science Planning

Launched on October 15, 1997, the Cassini-Huygens spacecraft began its ambitious journey to the Saturnian system with a complex suite of 12 scientific instruments, and another 6 instruments aboard the European Space Agencies Huygens Probe. Over the next 6 1/2 years, Cassini would continue its relatively simplistic cruise phase operations, flying past Venus, Earth, and Jupiter. However, following Saturn Orbit Insertion (SOI), Cassini would become involved in a complex series of tasks that required detailed resource management, distributed operations collaboration, and a data base for capturing science objectives. Collectively, these needs were met through a web-based software tool designed to help with the Cassini uplink process and ultimately used to generate more robust sequences for spacecraft operations. In 2001, in conjunction with the Southwest Research Institute (SwRI) and later Venustar Software and Engineering Inc., the Cassini Information Management System (CIMS) was released which enabled the Cassini spacecraft and science planning teams to perform complex information management and team collaboration between scientists and engineers in 17 countries. Originally tailored to help manage the science planning uplink process, CIMS has been actively evolving since its inception to meet the changing and growing needs of the Cassini uplink team and effectively reduce mission risk through a series of resource management validation algorithms. These algorithms have been implemented in the web-based software tool to identify potential sequence conflicts early in the science planning process. CIMS mitigates these sequence conflicts through identification of timing incongruities, pointing inconsistencies, flight rule violations, data volume issues, and by assisting in Deep Space Network (DSN) coverage analysis. In preparation for extended mission operations, CIMS has also evolved further to assist in the planning and coordination of the dual playback redundancy of highvalue data from targets such as Titan and Enceladus. This paper will outline the critical role that CIMS has played for Cassini in the distributed ops paradigm throughout operations. This paper will also examine the evolution that CIMS has undergone in the face of new science discoveries and fluctuating operational needs. And finally, this paper will conclude with theoretical adaptation of CIMS for other projects and the potential savings in cost and risk reduction that could potentially be tapped into by future missions.

Equils, Douglas J.↗

Summary of Gateway Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) Studies

NASA's Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) is based on a joint industry/NASA demonstration of an advanced solar electric propulsion powered spacecraft to meet commercial and NASA objectives. The PPE can establish the initial presence in cislunar space for the Gateway through initial operations and the subsequent deployment of additional partner-provided elements for the cislunar platform. Five commercial vendors were selected to conduct PPE studies which addressed key drivers for PPE development and support for the Gateway concept formulation. The study vendors focused on their performance trades and assessing their strategic capabilities, leveraging their existing and planned capabilities for PPE development. The industry studies examined differences between prior Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) mission concepts, expected industry capabilities, and potential needs supporting NASA's Gateway concept. These studies provided data on commercial capabilities relevant to NASA's exploration needs and reduced risk for a new, powerful, and efficient SEP-based PPE spacecraft.

Irimies, David↗

Microwave power transmission system studies. Volume 4: Sections 9 through 14 with appendices

The microwave rectifier technology, approaches to the receiving antenna, topology of rectenna circuits, assembly and construction, ROM cost estimates are discussed. Analyses and cost estimates for the equipment required to transmit the ground power to an external user. Noise and harmonic considerations are presented for both the amplitron and klystron and interference limits are identified and evaluated. The risk assessment discussion is discussed wherein technology risks are rated and ranked with regard to their importance in impacting the microwave power transmission system. The system analyses and evaluation are included of parametric studies of system relationships pertaining to geometry, materials, specific cost, specific weight, efficiency, converter packing, frequency selection, power distribution, power density, power output magnitude, power source, transportation and assembly. Capital costs per kW and energy costs as a function of rate of return, power source and transportation costs as well as build cycle time are presented. The critical technology and ground test program are discussed along with ROM costs and schedule. The orbital test program with associated critical technology and ground based program based on full implementation of the defined objectives is discussed.

Maynard, O. E.↗

Cislunar Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit for Human Space Exploration

In order to conduct sustained human exploration beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO), spacecraft systems are designed to operate in a series of missions of increasing complexity. Regardless of the destination, Moon, Mars, asteroids or beyond, there is a substantial set of common objectives that must be met. Many orbit characterization studies have endeavored to evaluate the potential locations in cislunar space that are favorable for meeting common human exploration objectives in a stepwise approach. Multiple studies, by both NASA and other international space agencies, have indicated that Earth-­‐moon libration point orbits are attractive candidates for staging operations in the proving ground and beyond. In particular, the Near Rectilinear Orbit (NRO) has been demonstrated to meet multi-­‐mission and multi-­‐destination architectural constraints. However, a human mission to a selected NRO presents a variety of new challenges for mission planning. While a growing number of robotic missions have completed successful operations to various specific libration point orbits, human missions have never been conducted to orbits of this class. Human missions have unique challenges that differ significantly from robotic missions, including a lower tolerance for mission risk and additional operational constraints that are associated only with human spacecraft. In addition, neither robotic nor human missions have been operated in the NRO regime specifically, and NROs exhibit dynamical characteristics that can differ significantly as compared to other halo orbits. Finally, multi-­‐body orbits, such as libration point orbits, are identified to exist in a simplified orbit model known as the Circular Restricted Three Body Problem (CRTBP) and must then be re-­‐solved in the full ephemeris model. As a result, the behavior of multi-­‐body orbits cannot be effectively characterized within the classical two-­‐body orbit dynamics framework more familiar to the human spaceflight community. In fact, a given NRO is not identified by a set of Keplerian orbit parameters, and a valid epoch specific state vector must be first obtained from a multi-body dynamical model. In this paper, the significant performance and operational challenges of conducting human missions to the NRO are evaluated. First, a systematic process for generating full ephemeris based ballistic NROs of various families is outlined to demonstrate the relative ease in which a multi-­‐revolution orbit can be found for any epoch and for various orbit geometries. In the Earth-­‐Moon system, NROs, which are halo orbits with close passage over a lunar pole, can exist with respect to libration point 1 (L1) or libration point 2 (L2) and are either from a North or South family orbit class with respect to the ecliptic. Second, the ability to maintain the orbit over the lifetime of a habitat mission by applying a reliable station-keeping strategy is investigated. The NRO, while similar to the quasi-­‐halo orbits that the Artemis mission flew, requires an updated station keeping strategy. This is due to several dynamical differences such as the increased relative stability of the NRO compared to other halo orbits and the close passage over the lunar surface as shown in Figure 1. Multiple station-keeping strategies are being investigated to ensure a human spacecraft remains on a predictable path. As the NRO is not described in simple two-­‐body parameters, analysis must determine the best strategy for targeting a reference NRO as well as how closely a future state should be constrained. In addition, costs will be minimized by determining maneuver directionality based on an identified pattern in the optimal station-keeping solutions or an analytically derived relationship. The candidate station-keeping algorithm must be stable and robust to environmental and vehicle uncertainties as well to navigation estimation and flight control execution errors. To that end, navigation accuracies, the impact on the station-keeping execution errors as well as other vehicle uncertainties need to be assessed. Starting with Orion, current navigation accuracies are evaluated and then navigation requirements are derived assuming a desired station-keeping propellant budget. Third, the performance requirements to and from the NRO are evaluated. Important parameters for developing expected propellant costs include epoch of operation, size and type of NRO, Earth departure and return constraints, as well as abort or early-­‐return capability. Finally, rendezvous and proximity operations are vital aspects of multi-­‐mission human exploration endeavors. The ability to conduct rendezvous and the associated propellant costs are assessed as well as the impacts of various profile assumptions including the location within the NRO the rendezvous is performed. The results of these studies will influence plans for international cooperation on both nearer term proving ground missions and beyond.

Whitley, Ryan↗

K-Means Cluster Study for Radiofrequency Propagation Characterization

The objective of this study is to design a simple method for mining radio frequency (RF) propagation data. The study explored the characteristics of a large dataset of propagation experiments conducted over the span of years and using several ground stations around the world. Furthermore, this study developed simple predictive models that can be used for link characterization and overall propagation behavior description, without the need for physical measurements on-site. It is understood that such statistical learning has several drawbacks in terms of accuracy and precision. K-means clustering was used to characterize the data set in a way never explored before in an attempt to create useful tools that reduce cost, time and risk. K-means clustering was used to characterize the data set. Cosine distance was used as a method to determine the optimal number for clustering each feature. Dependence and independence analysis was performed to explore intra and inter-sensitivity between the presented features, with respect to each other and time. Several predicative models were generated and evaluated with respect to a test set to assess a measure of prediction accuracy and precision. A simple method for data analysis was developed and tested as the basis for further studies and future refinement to produce optimal performing models.

Cognitive↗

Long -Term Architecture Development For The Moon And M

Developing an enterprise-level architecture encompassing future human-robotic science and exploration at the Moon and Mars requires a visionary approach that ensures NASA is responsive to national priorities and global science and technology advancement objectives. While the initial capabilities needed to return humans to the Moon may be well understood, NASA is still formulating a long-term infrastructure at the Moon and working to narrow the trade space for the first human missions to Mars. This paper will focus on the formulation and current status of engineering and design applications for a long-term and robust lunar architecture that will implement the Artemis Base Camp concept, including pre-formulation activities and elements currently in formulation. Authors will demonstrate how the Moon-to-Mars campaign approach fosters commonality of requirements and standards across individual mission elements, as well as multi-destination systems and operations, to reduce risk and encourage healthy competition in the growing space market. Among the Artemis Base Camp elements discussed will be multiple surface mobility elements, a fixed, anchoring surface habitat, fission surface power, and an in-situ resource development pilot plant. The narrative will clearly illustrate the direct evolution of the base camp elements to a minimal Mars architecture concept, and also outline unique development efforts that will be required in the next decade to make it possible to send humans to the Red Planet as early as the 2030s.

Greg Chavers↗

SHARP-B2: Flight Test Objectives, Project Implementation and Initial Results

On September 28, 2000 the SHARP-B2 flight experiment was launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California. SHARP-B2 is the 2nd Ballistic flight test in the SHARP (Slender Hypervelocity Aerothermodynamic Research Probes) program which develops and tests new thermal protection materials and sharp body concepts. The flight tested Ultra-High Temperature Ceramics (UHTCs), which may radically change the design and performance of future aerospace vehicles. The new designs may overturn an age-old tenet of aerodynamics: that blunt-body aerospace vehicles, but not those with sharp leading edges, can survive the searing temperatures created as the vehicles tear through the atmosphere. Sharp leading edges offer numerous advantages over the blunt-body design currently in use. They could allow a space shuttle or crew return vehicle to maneuver in space more like an airplane and potentially allow astronauts to return to Earth from anywhere on orbit. They may allow improved astronaut safety by decreasing the risk of aborting into the ocean. They may reduce the electromagnetic interference that causes the communications blackouts that plague reentering blunt-body space vehicles. Reducing the amount of drag could lead to a reduction in propulsion requirements. Planetary probes could make use of sharp-body technology for aerobraking and to maximize their maneuvering capability. SHARP-B2 was a joint effort among NASA Ames, Sandia National Laboratories, the U.S. Air Force and the U.S. Army. It was funded by the Pathfinder Program at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. The SHARP-B2 payload was carried aboard a U.S. Air Force Minuteman III missile carrying a modified Mk 12A reentry vehicle (RV), which blasted off from Vandenberg Air Force Base near Lompoc, CA, at 3:01 a.m. PDT on Sept. 28. The RV was equipped with four 5. 1 inch-long strakes, or sharp leading edges. Each strake contained three UHTCs: ZrB2/SiC/C; ZrB2/SiC; and HfB2/SiC. Once it reached an altitude of about 400 nautical miles, the RV was released, returning through Earth's atmosphere at speeds exceeding Mach 22. One pair of strakes was designed to retract just before reaching temperatures high enough to cause the material to begin ablating. The other pair was designed to retract shortly after ablation began, at an expected temperature of nearly 5,100 degrees Fahrenheit. Sensors in the strakes measured how closely performance matched pre-flight calculations, and data was successfully collected throughout the 23-minute flight. A parachute was deployed (but not fully inflated) and the RV splashed down in a lagoon at the Kwajalein missile range in the Pacific Ocean. Within 3 hours radar track analysis showed ocean entry to be precisely at the latitude/longitude coordinates estimated during pre-flight simulation. An hour later a ship was deployed by the Army to recover the reentry vehicle, which was recovered in 165 feet of water, just 500 feet from its planned splash-down point. This is the first RV recovery in over a decade.

Salute, Joan↗

Results from an Investigation into Extra-Vehicular Activity (EVA) Training Related Shoulder Injuries

The number and complexity of extravehicular activities (EVAs) required for the completion and maintenance of the International Space Station (ISS) is unprecedented. The training required to successfully complete this magnitude of space walks presents a real risk of overuse musculoskeletal injuries to the EVA crew population. There was mounting evidence raised by crewmembers, trainers, and physicians at the Johnson Space Center (JSC) between 1999 and 2002 that suggested a link between training in the Neutral - Buoyancy Lab (NBL) and the several reported cases of shoulder injuries. The short- and long-term health consequences of shoulder injury to astronauts in training as well as the potential mission impact associated with surgical intervention to assigned EVA crew point to this as a critical problem that must be mitigated. Thus, a multi-directorate tiger team was formed in December of 2002 led by the EVA Office and Astronaut Office at the JSC. The primary objectives of this Tiger Team were to evaluate the prevalence of these injuries and substantiate the relationship to training in the NBL with the crew person operating in the EVA Mobility Unit (EMU). Between December 2002 and June of 2003 the team collected data, surveyed crewmembers, consulted with a variety of physicians, and performed tests. The results of this effort were combined with the vast knowledge and experience of the Tiger Team members to formulate several findings and over fifty recommendations. This paper summarizes those findings and recommendations as well as the process by which these were determined. The Tiger Team concluded that training in the NBL was directly linked to several major and minor shoulder injuries that had occurred. With the assistance of JSC flight surgeons, outside consultants, and the lead crewmember/physician on the team, the mechanisms of injury were determined. These mechanisms were then linked to specific aspects of the hardware design, operational techniques, and the training environment. During the 1999 to 2003 time frame many variables converged to make it impossible to determine with any accuracy which one or two root causes were primarily involved. Therefore a broad range of recommendations was established to prevent future injury to crewmembers training in the NBL in the near term. Many of these recommendations are lessons learned that are essentially timeless and therefore should be passed on to future EVA endeavors to ensure that hardware designs and operational techniques utilized in the future consider the demands of training on the human body here on earth.

Johnson, Brian J.↗

A Comparative Analysis of Two Full-Scale MD-500 Helicopter Crash Tests

Two full scale crash tests were conducted on a small MD-500 helicopter at NASA Langley Research Center fs Landing and Impact Research Facility. One of the objectives of this test series was to compare airframe impact response and occupant injury data between a test which outfitted the airframe with an external composite passive energy absorbing honeycomb and a test which had no energy absorbing features. In both tests, the nominal impact velocity conditions were 7.92 m/sec (26 ft/sec) vertical and 12.2 m/sec (40 ft/sec) horizontal, and the test article weighed approximately 1315 kg (2900 lbs). Airframe instrumentation included accelerometers and strain gages. Four Anthropomorphic Test Devices were also onboard; three of which were standard Hybrid II and III, while the fourth was a specialized torso. The test which contained the energy absorbing honeycomb showed vertical impact acceleration loads of approximately 15 g, low risk for occupant injury probability, and minimal airframe damage. These results were contrasted with the test conducted without the energy absorbing honeycomb. The test results showed airframe accelerations of approximately 40 g in the vertical direction, high risk for injury probability in the occupants, and substantial airframe damage.

Littell, Justin D.↗

Relating Measured Component Damage to Assessed Component Reliability in Reliability Integrity Management (RIM)

There is currently no widely agreed detailed general method for licensing a novel plant incorporating novel materials (or materials being deployed in novel environments); in many such situations, there are no directly applicable engineering code cases for decision-makers (including regulators) to rely on. It may be possible to develop an approach to licensing such a plant that is based on the Reliability and Integrity Management (RIM) approach delineated in ASME BPVC Section XI Division 2. NRC Regulatory Guide 1.246, Rev.0, endorses, with conditions, the subject portion of the ASME Code. But that portion of the ASME code is written at a very high level, and there are fundamental technical challenges associated with applying it literally to licensing a real plant. In the RIM approach, applicants need to do the following (among other things): • Allocate target reliabilities to structures, systems, and components (SSCs) that collectively support the top-level plant safety and availability objectives; • Understand failure modes of those SSCs, and the degradation mechanisms that could lead to those failure modes; • Develop and propose a program of surveillances that will identify degradation prior to failure of SSCs; • Provide a means of reporting results, taking actions for anomalous or undesirable conditions, and give the regulator assurance of continued safe operations. Applying RIM in a specific case will call for advances in the state of practice of relating physical observables to functional reliability of certain component types. Except where a given level of damage corresponds to a failed (or nearly failed) state, it is not practical to establish a precise quantitative relationship between physical observables and reliability. This paper focuses on managing risk of passive component failures based on observable damage parameters. A simple approach to cumulative damage modeling will be illustrated with a view to possible use in RIM applications.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Heuristic algorithms for design of integrated monitoring of geologic carbon storage sites

Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management (DREAM) is a tool developed under the National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) to enhance geologic carbon storage safety and efficiency. Using potential leakage scenarios generated externally by the users preferred history-matching approach, DREAM constructs ideal combinations of sensor locations in the right place at the right time to detect as many leaks as possible, detect them as early as possible, and minimize cost. This user-friendly tool, developed in Java, features a window-based GUI for input and a 3D visualization tool for viewing the domain space and optimized monitoring plans. DREAM's latest version accommodates real-world usage by allowing for joint optimization of wellbore point sensor placements and surface geophysics survey geometries, and by using more efficient multi-objective optimization algorithms. We show an example where, these two improvements combined allow us to support containment assurance and go from detecting 80–90 % of the potential CO 2 leakage to +99.7 %, a step-change improvement that can make the deciding difference in whether a site is suitable for geologic carbon storage. Though developed for geologic carbon storage, this tool would be equally applicable in many surface or offshore environmental monitoring projects.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Demonstrate new plasticity models for doped UO 2 that capture dislocation mechanisms

In light water reactors, fuel vendors are investigating the use of dopants to modify the properties of UO 2 pellets, with the goal of improving pellet-cladding mechanical interactions during operation. Dopants are expected to ‘soften’ the pellets; that is, the doped pellets have higher plastic deformation than conventional UO 2 . This leads to a reduction in the severity of mechanical pellet-cladding interactions, helping to reduce the hoop strain on the cladding. By minimizing the strain exerted by the pellet on the cladding, it is anticipated that cladding performance under accident conditions can be enhanced (i.e., lowering the risk of burst during a LOCA). Dopants such as chromium (Cr) promote grain growth during pellet fabrication, leading to larger grains; therefore, understanding the link between chemistry, microstructure and mechanical deformation (enhanced creep rates) behavior of UO 2 is critical to helping operators further substantiate the benefits of doping UO 2 . Historically, the nuclear energy industry has relied on empirical models to make assessments of performance. Compared to empirical models, mechanistic physics-based models provide benefits, such as, fewer data points for validation and better extrapolation where experimental data is scarce or non-existent. In this report, Bayesian inference techniques have been applied to a previously developed lower length-scale-informed diffusional creep model. The objective is to i) infer lower-length-scale parameter distributions from available experiment and then ii) determine the uncertainties in the measurable quantity (in this case creep rates) after propagating the inferred lower length scale parameter uncertainties. The approach requires many evaluations of the model, which becomes computationally insurmountable; therefore, a neural-network model is trained to data obtained by sampling the full model over the most important parameters. This neural-network is then used in the Bayesian inference approach to determine probability distributions in the parameter values that represent the uncertainty in the model given what is known from the experiments (posterior). A significant reduction compared to conservative initial (prior) uncertainties is achieved through inference against the experimental data, demonstrating the efficacy of this approach. Furthermore, by accounting for uncertainties in the experimental conditions and sample non-stoichiometry, it is possible to resolve apparent discrepancies in experimental measurements within a self-consistent grain boundary (Coble) creep model that is sensitive to chemistry. This work has been written up and submitted to Nuclear Technology for a special issue on accelerated fuel qualification (AFQ). This uncertainty quantification (UQ) work not only improves the diffusional model, while accounting for uncertainty, but also establishes a framework which can readily be applied to the mechanistic models of dislocation deformation developed in this study. The most likely values from the Bayesian analysis are incorporated into our UO 2 diffusional creep model and a lower length scale-informed irradiation UO 2 creep mechanistic model to generate a dataset. This dataset has been provided to our INL collaborators for training an artificial neural network surrogate model, which will be implemented in the BISON fuel performance code to assess how the results differ from those currently obtained using a fully empirical model and that of using the nominal (uncalibrated) atomic scale parameters in our mechanistic model. Plastic deformation (creep and glide) in UO 2 is a complex phenomenon, governed by multiple underlying processes such as local defect concentrations, applied stresses, and microstructural characteristics. Consequently, there is a need for a meso-scale model with polycrystalline resolution capable of extrapolating to large grain sizes applicable to doped UO 2 , where data is limited and the model can help bridge the knowledge gap. By integrating atomistic data into the polycrystal LApx code, it becomes possible to predict dislocation climb and glide plasticity that simple analytical models cannot accurately represent. The application of atomic-scale data within LApx demonstrated the importance of climb and glide mechanisms in reproducing high-stress UO 2 behavior. Behaviors such as this are crucial to capture and implement in BISON, as parts of the fuel pellet can reach temperatures where glide can occur before pellet cracking. This model which captures dislocation based mechanisms for UO 2 is then used to stand up the doped model accounting for larger grain sizes. It was found that larger grain sizes can lead to enhanced deformation rates in the glide regime, and therefore can help with the pellet cladding mechanical interaction. Therefore if the fuel pellet reaches conditions (stress/temperature) where glide is active, the enhanced creep rates for larger grains in the glide regime (doped UO 2 ) can help with pellet cladding mechanical interactions. Plastic deformation in UO 2 involves multiple mechanisms, including diffusional creep, dislocation climb, and glide. This milestone contains two parts: (1) UQ of a pre-existing lower length scale informed mechanistic diffusional creep model, and (2) development of a new LApx based model for dislocation-mediated creep mechanisms in UO 2 , with application to large-grain doped UO 2 .

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗