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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2016

Modeling in the State Flow Environment to Support Launch Vehicle Verification Testing for Mission and Fault Management Algorithms in the NASA Space Launch System

Analysis methods and testing processes are essential activities in the engineering development and verification of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) new Space Launch System (SLS). Central to mission success is reliable verification of the Mission and Fault Management (M&FM) algorithms for the SLS launch vehicle (LV) flight software. This is particularly difficult because M&FM algorithms integrate and operate LV subsystems, which consist of diverse forms of hardware and software themselves, with equally diverse integration from the engineering disciplines of LV subsystems. M&FM operation of SLS requires a changing mix of LV automation. During pre-launch the LV is primarily operated by the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) organization with some LV automation of time-critical functions, and much more autonomous LV operations during ascent that have crucial interactions with the Orion crew capsule, its astronauts, and with mission controllers at the Johnson Space Center. M&FM algorithms must perform all nominal mission commanding via the flight computer to control LV states from pre-launch through disposal and also address failure conditions by initiating autonomous or commanded aborts (crew capsule escape from the failing LV), redundancy management of failing subsystems and components, and safing actions to reduce or prevent threats to ground systems and crew. To address the criticality of the verification testing of these algorithms, the NASA M&FM team has utilized the State Flow environment6 (SFE) with its existing Vehicle Management End-to-End Testbed (VMET) platform which also hosts vendor-supplied physics-based LV subsystem models. The human-derived M&FM algorithms are designed and vetted in Integrated Development Teams composed of design and development disciplines such as Systems Engineering, Flight Software (FSW), Safety and Mission Assurance (S&MA) and major subsystems and vehicle elements such as Main Propulsion Systems (MPS), boosters, avionics, Guidance, Navigation, and Control (GN&C), Thrust Vector Control (TVC), liquid engines, and the astronaut crew office. Since the algorithms are realized using model-based engineering (MBE) methods from a hybrid of the Unified Modeling Language (UML) and Systems Modeling Language (SysML), SFE methods are a natural fit to provide an in depth analysis of the interactive behavior of these algorithms with the SLS LV subsystem models. For this, the M&FM algorithms and the SLS LV subsystem models are modeled using constructs provided by Matlab which also enables modeling of the accompanying interfaces providing greater flexibility for integrated testing and analysis, which helps forecast expected behavior in forward VMET integrated testing activities. In VMET, the M&FM algorithms are prototyped and implemented using the same C++ programming language and similar state machine architectural concepts used by the FSW group. Due to the interactive complexity of the algorithms, VMET testing thus far has verified all the individual M&FM subsystem algorithms with select subsystem vendor models but is steadily progressing to assessing the interactive behavior of these algorithms with LV subsystems, as represented by subsystem models. The novel SFE applications has proven to be useful for quick look analysis into early integrated system behavior and assessment of the M&FM algorithms with the modeled LV subsystems. This early MBE analysis generates vital insight into the integrated system behaviors, algorithm sensitivities, design issues, and has aided in the debugging of the M&FM algorithms well before full testing can begin in more expensive, higher fidelity but more arduous environments such as VMET, FSW testing, and the Systems Integration Lab7 (SIL). SFE has exhibited both expected and unexpected behaviors in nominal and off nominal test cases prior to full VMET testing. In many findings, these behavioral characteristics were used to correct the M&FM algorithms, enable better test coverage, and develop more effective test cases for each of the LV subsystems. This has improved the fidelity of testing and planning for the next generation of M&FM algorithms as the SLS program evolves from non-crewed to crewed flight, impacting subsystem configurations and the M&FM algorithms that control them. SFE analysis has improved robustness and reliability of the M&FM algorithms by revealing implementation errors and documentation inconsistencies. It is also improving planning efficiency for future VMET testing of the M&FM algorithms hosted in the LV flight computers, further reducing risk for the SLS launch infrastructure, the SLS LV, and most importantly the crew.

Trevino, Luis↗
NASA NTRS2019

Complex Dynamics of Air Traffic Flow

Air traffic in the United States has continued to grow at a steady pace since 1980, except for a dip immediately after the tragic events of September 11, 2001. There are different growth scenarios associated both with the magnitude and the composition of the future air traffic. The Terminal Area Forecast (TAF), prepared every year by the FAA, projects the growth of traffic in the United States. Both Boeing and Airbus publish market outlooks for air travel annually. Although predicting the future growth of traffic is difficult, there are two significant trends: heavily congested major airports continue to see an increase in traffic, and the emergence of regional jets and other smaller aircraft with fewer passengers operating directly between non-major airports. The interaction between air traffic demand and the ability of the system to provide the necessary airport and airspace resources can be modeled as a network. The size of the resulting network varies depending on the choice of its nodes. It would be useful to understand the properties of this network to guide future design and development. Many questions, such as the growth of delay with increasing traffic demand and impact of the en route weather on future air traffic, require a systematic understanding of the properties of the air traffic network. There has been a major advance in the understanding of the behavior of networks with a large number of components. Several theories have been advanced about the evolution of large biological and engineering networks by authors in diversified disciplines like physics, mathematics, biology and computer science. Several networks exhibit a scale-free property in the sense that the probabilistic distribution of their nodes as a function of connections decreases slower than an exponential. These networks are characterized by the fact that a small number of components have a disproportionate influence on the performance of the network. Scale-free networks are tolerant to random failure of components, but are vulnerable to selective attack on components. This paper examines two network representations for the baseline air traffic system. A network defined with the 40 major airports as nodes and with standard flight routes as links has a characteristic scale: all nodes have 60 or more links and no node has more than 460 links. Another network is defined with baseline aircraft routing structure exhibits an exponentially truncated scale-free behavior. Its degree ranges from 2 connections to 2900 connections, and 225 nodes have more than 250 connections. Furthermore, those high-degree nodes are homogeneously distributed in the airspace. A consequence of this scale-free behavior is that the random loss of a single node has little impact, but the loss of multiple high-degree nodes (such as occurs during major storms in busy airspace) can adversely impact the system. Two future scenarios of air traffic growth are used to predict the growth of air traffic in the United States. It is shown that a three-times growth in the overall traffic may result in a ten-times impact on the density of traffic in certain parts of the United States.

Scale-free Networks↗
NASA NTRS2002

Bioastronautics: optimizing human performance through research and medical innovations

A strategic use of resources is essential to achieving long-duration space travel and understanding the human physiological changes in space, including the roles of food and nutrition in space. To effectively address the challenges of space flight, the Bioastronautics Initiative, undertaken in 2001, expands extramural collaboration and leverages unique capabilities of the scientific community and the federal government, all the while applying this integrated knowledge to Earth-based problems. Integral to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's missions in space is the reduction of risk of medical complications, particularly during missions of long duration. Cumulative medical experience and research provide the ability to develop evidence-based medicine for prevention, countermeasures, and treatment modalities for space flight. The early approach applied terrestrial clinical judgment to predict medical problems in space. Space medicine has evolved to an evidence-based approach with the use of biomedical data gathered and lessons learned from previous space flight missions to systematically aid in decision making. This approach led, for example, to the determination of preliminary nutritional requirements for space flight, and it aids in the development of nutrition itself as a countermeasure to support nutritional mitigation of adaptation to space.

Nutritional Requirements↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SatCORPS Global Cloud Composite (GCC): the Design and Delivery of A High Quality, High Resolution, Global Cloud Product Available in Near-Real Time

The NASA Satellite ClOud and Radiation Property retrieval System (SatCORPS) supports the development of an analysis ready and cloud-optimized data transformation pipeline and geospatial service enablement of a global cloud composite (GCC) product derived from global geostationary satellite imagery. This geospatial service will be available at high temporal and spatial resolution via the SatCORPS web mapping application for visualization and analysis as well as direct ingestion to common geospatial software and custom programming. The resulting global cloud composite products from the processing pipeline can then be geospatially-service enabled as ArcGIS Image Services and Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Mapping/Coverage Services for visualization and analysis via a web mapping application and common geospatial software. Near real time global observations are created through the composition of five geostationary satellites that provides modelling and forecasting communities with the capability to provide high quality and timely information to start the projection process. The Global Cloud Composite product combines information from geostationary satellites, GOES-16, GOES-17, Himawari-8, Meteosat-11 and Meteosat-9 to create a single global composite netcdf file and images using the different products within the netcdf file. The SatCORPS team, though our Global Cloud Composite (GCC) product and web-based visualization tools including Geographical Information System (GIS) services provide near real time global cloud product information to both automated processes and traditional web users that is timely and high quality derived from geostationary satellites. The Global Cloud Composite product takes advantage of the scalable processing resources provided by the AWS batch service to provide new composites every thirty minutes. Because information from each of the low earth orbiting satellites is available on schedules tuned to the specific satellite, the processing algorithm temporally composites the final dataset as each satellite’s information becomes available. The SatCORPS team has leveraged our experience using Amazon Web Services (AWS) to build a low latency high availability tool that allows end users both human and automated to acquire high quality and high-resolution Geostationary Earth Orbiting (GEO) information at zero cost to the end user. This presentation will describe how we architected and implemented the service as well as lessons learned based on our experiences both developing and operating the system. The lessons learned include how we integrated multiple services including Amazon Batch, Amazon S3 and Amazon Lambda service to create a low cost but high-performance processing system that is capable of identifying and processing the most appropriate satellite overpass information into global cloud composites. We will also describe our web-based tools including our Geographic Information System that can be used for visualization and analysis. The products from the processing can be geospatially-service enabled as ArcGIS Image Services and Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Mapping/Coverage Services for visualization and analysis via a web mapping application and common geospatial software. The SatCORPS Global Composite Cloud product provides sophisticated global composited cloud research products with very low latency that we see that as filling a rapidly growing need in the research and modelling community with no up-front nor ongoing costs associated with downloading or using the information.

AWS AMCE SMCE GCC SATCORPS GLOBAL CLOUD COMPOSITE ↗
DOE OSTI2021

Changes in Climate and Its Effect on Timing of Snowmelt and Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves

Snow is a critical water resource for much of the U.S. and failure to account for changes in climate could deleteriously impact military assets. In this study, we produced historical and future snow trends through modeling at three military sites (in Washington, Colorado, and North Dakota) and the Western U.S. For selected rivers, we performed seasonal trend analysis of discharge extremes. We calculated flood frequency curves and estimated the probability of occurrence of future annual maximum daily rainfall depths. Additionally, we generated intensity-duration-frequency curves (IDF) to find rainfall intensities at several return levels. Generally, our results showed a decreasing trend in historical and future snow duration, rain-on-snow events, and snowmelt runoff. This decreasing trend in snowpack could reduce water resources. A statistically significant increase in maximum streamflow for most rivers at the Washington and North Dakota sites occurred for several months of the year. In Colorado, only a few months indicated such an increase. Future IDF curves for Colorado and North Dakota indicated a slight increase in rainfall intensity whereas the Washington site had about a twofold increase. This increase in rainfall intensity could result in major flood events, demonstrating the importance of accounting for climate changes in infrastructure planning.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nondetection of Helium in the Upper Atmospheres of Three Sub-Neptune Exoplanets

We present a search for helium in the upper atmospheres of three sub-Neptune-sized planets to investigate the origins of these ubiquitous objects. The detection of helium for a low-density planet would be strong evidence for the presence of a primary atmosphere accreted from the protoplanetary nebula because large amounts of helium are not expected in the secondary atmospheres of rocky planets. We used Keck+NIRSPEC to obtain high-resolution transit spectroscopy of the planets GJ 1214b, GJ 9827d, and HD 97658b around the 10833 Å He triplet feature. We did not detect helium absorption for any of the planets despite achieving a high level of sensitivity. We used the nondetections to set limits on the planets’ thermosphere temperatures and atmospheric loss rates by comparing grids of 1D models to the data. We also performed coupled interior structure and atmospheric loss calculations, which suggest that the bulk atmospheres (winds) of the planets would be at most modestly enhanced (depleted) in helium relative to their primordial composition. Our lack of detections of the helium triplet for GJ 1214b and GJ 9827d is highly inconsistent with the predictions of models for the present-day mass loss on these planets. Higher signal-to-noise data would be needed to detect the helium feature predicted for HD 97658b. We identify uncertainties in the extreme-ultraviolet fluxes of the host stars and the lack of detailed mass-loss models specifically for cool and metal-enhanced atmospheres as the main limitations to the interpretation of our results. Ultimately, our results suggest that the upper atmospheres of sub-Neptune planets are fundamentally different from those of gas giant planets.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1999

Parallelization of the Physical-Space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS)

Atmospheric data assimilation is a method of combining observations with model forecasts to produce a more accurate description of the atmosphere than the observations or forecast alone can provide. Data assimilation plays an increasingly important role in the study of climate and atmospheric chemistry. The NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has developed the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS) to create assimilated datasets. The core computational components of the GEOS DAS include the GEOS General Circulation Model (GCM) and the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS). The need for timely validation of scientific enhancements to the data assimilation system poses computational demands that are best met by distributed parallel software. PSAS is implemented in Fortran 90 using object-based design principles. The analysis portions of the code solve two equations. The first of these is the "innovation" equation, which is solved on the unstructured observation grid using a preconditioned conjugate gradient (CG) method. The "analysis" equation is a transformation from the observation grid back to a structured grid, and is solved by a direct matrix-vector multiplication. Use of a factored-operator formulation reduces the computational complexity of both the CG solver and the matrix-vector multiplication, rendering the matrix-vector multiplications as a successive product of operators on a vector. Sparsity is introduced to these operators by partitioning the observations using an icosahedral decomposition scheme. PSAS builds a large (approx. 128MB) run-time database of parameters used in the calculation of these operators. Implementing a message passing parallel computing paradigm into an existing yet developing computational system as complex as PSAS is nontrivial. One of the technical challenges is balancing the requirements for computational reproducibility with the need for high performance. The problem of computational reproducibility is well known in the parallel computing community. It is a requirement that the parallel code perform calculations in a fashion that will yield identical results on different configurations of processing elements on the same platform. In some cases this problem can be solved by sacrificing performance. Meeting this requirement and still achieving high performance is very difficult. Topics to be discussed include: current PSAS design and parallelization strategy; reproducibility issues; load balance vs. database memory demands, possible solutions to these problems.

Larson, J. W.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Unsteady- and Steady-State Relative Permeability Study with X-ray and Acoustic Monitoring for CO 2 Storage in Deep Saline Aquifers

In this study, we link the multiphase flow measurements with controls of sedimentary structures (e.g., heterogeneity and anisotropy) on relative permeability to variations in ultrasonic velocities for two deep saline aquifer formations (Entrada and Bluff Sandstones) in the San Juan Basin of the Southwestern USA. The rock specimens were extracted from outcrop sites near Durango, CO, USA. They have distinct differences in grain size, cementation composition, and individual chemical amounts, despite both formations being eolian sandstones. We performed a series of unsteady- and steady-state CO 2 -brine relative permeability experiments under capillary-controlled displacement rates. Unsteady-state experiments were conducted at 71 °C and 9.65 MPa; steady-state experiments were conducted at 85 °C and 22.8 MPa and 89 °C and 24.1 MPa for the Bluff and Entrada Sandstones, respectively. During the unsteady experiments, X-ray computed tomography was used to visualize multiphase flow in porous media and quantify saturations during brine drainage under various flow rates. Scan images and saturation profiles indicate that the CO 2 distribution in the pore volume was strongly impacted by the presence of high-angle cross-laminations, heterogeneous rock structure, and direction of bedding orientation. Those factors contribute to dramatic and quick initial breakthroughs and affect the overall saturation dynamics. Steady-state relative permeability tests were conducted at net flow rates of 1 mL/min for both brine drainage and imbibition. During the experimental steps, the CO 2 fractional flow was increased and decreased for both drainage and imbibition scenarios to mimic the front when CO 2 contacts brine and behind the front when brine enters space previously occupied by CO 2 . It was found that compressional velocity decreased, while shear waves slightly increased as brine saturation decreased. The hysteresis effects for the relative permeability and acoustic velocities were distinct. Furthermore, the CO 2 /brine front stability is quantified by applying a mobility ratio approach to spot saturations at which the boundary line between fluids becomes uneven. The results presented in this work can potentially boost the quality and precision of forecasts for the CO 2 storage projects in which the vertical and horizontal core-scale heterogeneity and anisotropy impact the plume migration within host reservoirs.

carbon dioxide (CO2)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scoping Analysis of Pebble-Bed Reactors for the Destruction of the Transuranic Inventory of LWR Spent Nuclear Fuel

With the forecasted increase in the construction and operation of nuclear reactors, there will be a corresponding increase in the quantity of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) that requires long-term storage. In SNF, transuranic isotopes contribute the most to the long-term radiotoxicity of the fuel and pose a proliferation risk. One option that has been explored to address these issues is the removal of the transuranic isotopes from SNF and the conversion of these isotopes into transuranic fuel (TRU fuel). Here, this work sought to determine how effective a micro-modular Pebble-Bed High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (PB-HTGR); the 10-MW High Temperature Gas-cooled Test Reactor (HTR-10); and a salt-cooled small-modular pebble-bed reactor (PBR), i.e. the generic Fluoride-cooled High-temperature Reactor (gFHR), are at reducing the inventory of transuranic isotopes while still maintaining the intrinsic safety features of the PBR designs, such as negative temperature coefficients of reactivity. Optimized pebble designs utilizing TRU fuel were found for both reactors through the adjustment for the packing fraction of fuel in each pebble. The Axial Zone Equilibrium Modeling (A-ZEM) method was used in this work to help select the optimized pebble design. Once an optimized pebble design was selected and an equilibrium model was produced, the results from the deep burn (DB) HTR-10 and gFHR designs were compared to the results of two models from the literature. While both the DB gFHR and the DB HTR-10 were able to reduce the weapons-usable transuranic inventory, the performance of these reactors did not match that of the small-modular PB-HTGRs in the literature. Therefore, a need was identified for further refinement of the gFHR design using TRU fuel, as the results for this model were more promising than those of the DB HTR-10, which was strongly limited by the high leakage intrinsic to micro-modular PB-HTGRs.

Transuranic fuel↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impacts of Non-Simultaneous Global Photospheric Magnetic Measurements on Coronal and Solar Wind Modeling

The intensity and arrival time of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) can be significantly influenced by the background solar wind encountered as they propagate outward from the Sun into the interplanetary medium. In addition, solar energetic particles (SEPs) race ahead of CME shock fronts and flare regions along magnetic field lines largely determined by the background solar wind. Predicting the solar wind accurately is therefore critical for improving forecasts of CMEs, SEPs, and high-speed streams. Modeling of the corona and solar wind is challenging in general, as it is highly dependent on global photospheric magnetic field maps, which serve as the boundary conditions to all coronal models that drive solar wind models. Unfortunately, less than half of the Sun’s photospheric magnetic field is reliably measured from any given vantage point and thus it is common for the maps to have highly dated and unreliable measurements in them. While Solar Obiter (SolO) now provides for the first time the opportunity to have simultaneous measurements of nearly the entire surface magnetic field of Sun (e.g., when SolO/PHI measurements are combined with those from SDO/HMI), the required alignment to accomplish this occurs only occasionally. Further, coronal models are extremely sensitive to the strengths of the polar magnetic fields of the Sun, which remain poorly observed. Recently, efforts to mitigate this problem include using flux transport models such as the Air Force Data Assimilative Photospheric Flux Transport (ADAPT) model, which evolves the field forward in time using well known transport processes occurring on the Sun. However, it cannot account for the emergence of new magnetic flux without direct observations. The ESA VIGIL mission will eventually provide continuous observations from the L5, and the proposed SunCHASER mission will likewise do this at the L4 vantage point should it be funded. Ultimately, what is needed is a constellation of spacecraft distributed around the Sun with magnetographs that continuously measure the global surface magnetic field. In this talk, we discuss how the lack of simultaneous global measurements of the photospheric magnetic field adversely impacts the predictive performance of coronal and solar wind models.

C. Nick Arge↗
DOE OSTI2021

Examining the Impacts of Great Lakes Temperature Perturbations on Simulated Precipitation in the Northeastern United States

Most inland water bodies are not resolved by general circulation models, requiring that lake surface temperatures be estimated. Given the large spatial and temporal variability of the surface temperatures of the North American Great Lakes, such estimations can introduce errors when used as lower boundary conditions for dynamical downscaling. Lake surface temperatures (LSTs) influence moisture and heat fluxes, thus impacting precipitation within the immediate region and potentially in regions downwind of the lakes. For this study, the Advanced Research version of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-ARW) was used to simulate precipitation over the six New England states during a 5-yr historical period. The model simulation was repeated with perturbed LSTs, ranging from 10°C below to 10°C above baseline values obtained from reanalysis data, to determine whether the inclusion of erroneous LST values has an impact on simulated precipitation and synoptic-scale features. Results show that simulated precipitation in New England is statistically correlated with LST perturbations, but this region falls on a wet–dry line of a larger bimodal distribution. Wetter conditions occur to the north and drier conditions occur to the south with increasing LSTs, particularly during the warm season. Additionally, the precipitation differences coincide with large-scale anomalous temperature, pressure, and moisture patterns. Care must therefore be taken to ensure reasonably accurate Great Lakes surface temperatures when simulating precipitation, especially in southeastern Canada, Maine, and the mid-Atlantic region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Using ARM Observations to Evaluate Process-Interactions in MCS Simulations Across Scales (Final Progress Report)

This project, funded by DOE Atmospheric System Research (DE-SC0020050), focused on improving the representation of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) in numerical weather and climate models by leveraging high-resolution observations from the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program. The research aimed to evaluate model sensitivities to grid spacing, microphysics, and planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes, with a particular emphasis on improving convection parameterization for high-resolution modeling. Findings from this work highlight several key advancements. Model validation against ARM radar wind profiler data from the Southern Great Plains (SGP) and Manaus (MAO) sites revealed systematic biases in simulated convective mass flux profiles, leading to the development of an observationally constrained evaluation framework for diagnosing and improving model performance. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the representation of Amazonian MCSs was highly dependent on PBL scheme selection, while mid-latitude MCSs were more strongly influenced by microphysics parameterizations. A series of high-resolution WRF simulations, ranging from 4 km to 125 m grid spacing, provided insight into the behavior of convective drafts across scales. While updraft properties converged at sub-kilometer resolutions, biases in downdraft intensity persisted even at the finest resolution tested, emphasizing the need for further refinements in model physics. Additionally, comparisons of MCS vertical structures between mid-latitude and tropical environments revealed stronger updrafts and larger mass flux in mid-latitude MCSs, providing critical insights for improving climate model representations of storm-scale dynamics. The project’s findings have already contributed to advancing numerical modeling capabilities, particularly in WRF, MPAS, ICON, and DOE’s SCREAM model, by refining how convective processes are represented in high-resolution climate simulations. Results were disseminated through peer-reviewed publications, conference presentations, and ARM/ASR Research Highlights, engaging the broader scientific community. The project also provided valuable training opportunities for two postdoctoral researchers, who played central roles in model development, analysis, and dissemination of results. Their work contributed to several publications and conference presentations, helping prepare them for careers in atmospheric modeling. By improving the simulation of MCSs, this research directly supports the development of next-generation climate models capable of more accurately representing extreme precipitation and convective processes. The insights gained will inform future improvements in convective parameterization and guide the design of high-resolution weather and climate simulations, ultimately enhancing the reliability of climate projections and weather forecasts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2004

Multivariate Error Covariance Estimates by Monte-Carlo Simulation for Assimilation Studies in the Pacific Ocean

One of the most difficult aspects of ocean state estimation is the prescription of the model forecast error covariances. The paucity of ocean observations limits our ability to estimate the covariance structures from model-observation differences. In most practical applications, simple covariances are usually prescribed. Rarely are cross-covariances between different model variables used. Here a comparison is made between a univariate Optimal Interpolation (UOI) scheme and a multivariate OI algorithm (MvOI) in the assimilation of ocean temperature. In the UOI case only temperature is updated using a Gaussian covariance function and in the MvOI salinity, zonal and meridional velocities as well as temperature, are updated using an empirically estimated multivariate covariance matrix. Earlier studies have shown that a univariate OI has a detrimental effect on the salinity and velocity fields of the model. Apparently, in a sequential framework it is important to analyze temperature and salinity together. For the MvOI an estimation of the model error statistics is made by Monte-Carlo techniques from an ensemble of model integrations. An important advantage of using an ensemble of ocean states is that it provides a natural way to estimate cross-covariances between the fields of different physical variables constituting the model state vector, at the same time incorporating the model's dynamical and thermodynamical constraints as well as the effects of physical boundaries. Only temperature observations from the Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean array have been assimilated in this study. In order to investigate the efficacy of the multivariate scheme two data assimilation experiments are validated with a large independent set of recently published subsurface observations of salinity, zonal velocity and temperature. For reference, a third control run with no data assimilation is used to check how the data assimilation affects systematic model errors. While the performance of the UOI and MvOI is similar with respect to the temperature field, the salinity and velocity fields are greatly improved when multivariate correction is used, as evident from the analyses of the rms differences of these fields and independent observations. The MvOI assimilation is found to improve upon the control run in generating the water masses with properties close to the observed, while the UOI failed to maintain the temperature and salinity structure.

Borovikov, Anna↗
NASA NTRS1997

The Evolving Universe: Structure and Evolution of the Universe Roadmap 2000-2020

The Roadmap for the Structure and Evolution of the Universe (SEU) theme embraces three fundamental, scientific quests: (1) To explain structure in the Universe and forecast our cosmic destiny. (2) To explore the cycles of matter and energy in the evolving Universe. (3) To examine the ultimate limits of gravity and energy in the Universe. These quests are developed into six, focused research campaigns addressing the objectives of one or more quests: Identify dark matter and learn how it shapes galaxies and systems of galaxies; Find out where and when the chemical elements were made; Understand the cycles in which matter, energy, and magnetic field are exchanged between stars and the gas between stars; Discover how gas flows in disks and how cosmic jets are formed; Identify the sources of gamma-ray bursts and high-energy cosmic rays; and Measure how strong gravity operates near black holes and how it affects the early Universe. These campaigns lead to a portfolio of future major missions of strong scientific and popular appeal, strongly endorsed by the scientific community and which has undergone significant initial study. Some of these missions are in a state of readiness that makes ideal candidates for the present Office of Space Science Strategic Plan; others may well feature in the next Strategic Plan. Each provides a golden scientific opportunity to advance our understanding of the Universe. Our highest priority science objectives are addressed by five Observatory Class Missions, unranked by science, but in approximate order of readiness: A high-energy gamma-ray facility that will observe relativistic jets and study the sources of cosmic gamma ray bursts; An ultra-sensitive X-ray telescope, optimized for spectroscopy, to examine the hot gas linked with clusters of galaxies, the disks around black holes, and supernova explosions; A large, radio telescope in deep space to map central regions of distant quasars and perform astrometric investigations; An orbiting gravitational coalescing, massive black holes and test how gravity waves distort spacetime; A pair of Earth-orbiting, optical telescopes that will detect flashes of light produced when ultra high-energy cosmic rays impact the upper atmosphere so as to determine their arrival directions and energies. A new program for supporting pertinent international collaboration is strongly endorsed and maintaining a strong Explorer program is important. The flexibility to exploit exceptional opportunities, such as attaching payloads to space station, should also be acquired. A strong technology development program must be initiated now to enable this mission set.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2025

WFIP3

The Wind Forecasting Improvement Project 3 (WFIP-3) is the first offshore-based wind resource characterization project within the WFIP construct, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy. WFIP-3 will provide a unique field study that will deliver the comprehensive suite of data needed to inform a series of modeling efforts that will develop and evaluate parameterization schemes suited to offshore environments and improved industry-targeted applications. The field study has two goals: (1) detailed sampling of the vertical structure of the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL) at key observational areas, creating a rich dataset that will be used to refine and validate parameterization schemes, and (2) wide-area sampling of the MABL to create a multi-scale array of observations informing and guiding models of resource characterization. We will deploy a multi-platform array of measurements that span the MABL and create a multi-scale observational array stretching south from Marth’s Vineyard across the wind energy areas.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2016

Virtual Flight Demonstration of the Stratospheric Dual-Aircraft Platform

A baseline configuration for the dual-aircraft platform (DAP) concept is described and evaluated in a physics-based flight dynamics simulations for two month-long missions as a communications relay in the lower stratosphere above central Florida, within 150-miles of downtown Orlando.The DAP configuration features two large glider-like (130 ft wing span) unmanned aerial vehicles connected via a long adjustable cable (total extendible length of 3000 ft) which effectively sail without propulsion using available wind shear. Use of onboard LiDAR wind profilers to forecast wind distributions are found to be necessary to enable the platform to efficiently adjust flight conditions to remain sailing by finding sufficient wind shear across the platform. The aircraft derive power from solar cells, like a conventional solar aircraft, but also extract wind power using the propeller as a turbine when there is an excess of wind shear available.Month-long atmospheric profiles (at 3-5 min intervals) in the vicinity of 60,000-ft are derived from archived data measured by the 50-Mhz Doppler Radar Wind Profiler at Cape Canaveral and used in the DAP flight simulations. A cursory evaluation of these datasets show that sufficient wind shear for DAP sailing is persistent, suggesting that DAP could potentially sail over 90% of the month-long durations even when limited by modest ascent/descent rates.DAP's novel guidance software uses a non-linear constrained optimization technique to define waypoints such that sailing mode of flight is maintained where possible, and minimal thrust is required where sailing is not practical. A set of constraints are identified which result in waypoints that enable efficient flight (i.e., minimal use of propulsion) over the two month-long flight simulations. Waypoint solutions may need to be tabulated for a wide range of potential atmospheric conditions and stored onboard for quick retrieval on a real DAP.DAP's flight control software uses an unconventional mixture of spacecraft and aircraft control techniques. Flight simulations confirms that this controls approach enables the platform to consistently reach successive waypoints over the month-long flight simulations.The ability of DAP to transition between the sailing mode (i.e., cable tension is high) and standard formation flight (i.e., cable tension is low) is a vital capability (e.g., to enable intermittent turns while stationkeeping). A new method to perform these transitions has been identified and characterized with flight simulation which requires special aircraft modifications.The energy-usage of the DAP configuration during two month-long stationkeeping missions over central Florida (i.e., stationkeeping over Orlando) is evaluated and compared to that of a pure solar aircraft of the same weight and aerodynamic performance. DAP is shown to consistently reduce net propulsion usage while simultaneously increasing solar energy capture.A baseline 700 GHz communications system is described and its performance evaluated for the proposed mission over central Florida. It is found that the variable roll orientation of the aircraft would increase the power required to maintain coverage over the stationkeeping radius of 150 miles (e.g., by as much as 100% when DAP is 150 miles from Orlando), compared to level flight. This effect can be mitigated via additional antenna design complexity or a more restricted stationkeeping radius.

Demonstrations↗
DOE OSTI2020

PFLOTRAN-SIP: A PFLOTRAN Module for Simulating Spectral-Induced Polarization of Electrical Impedance Data

Spectral induced polarization (SIP) is a non-intrusive geophysical method that collects chargeability information (the ability of a material to retain charge) in the time domain or its phase shift in the frequency domain. Although SIP is a temporal method, it cannot measure the dynamics of flow and solute/species transport in the subsurface over long times (i.e., 10–100 s of years). Data collected with the SIP technique need to be coupled with fluid flow and reactive-transport models in order to capture long-term dynamics. To address this challenge, PFLOTRAN-SIP was built to couple SIP data to fluid flow and solute transport processes. Specifically, this framework couples the subsurface flow and transport simulator PFLOTRAN and geoelectrical simulator E4D without sacrificing computational performance. PFLOTRAN solves the coupled flow and solute-transport process models in order to estimate solute concentrations, which were used in Archie’s model to compute bulk electrical conductivities at near-zero frequency. These bulk electrical conductivities were modified while using the Cole–Cole model to account for frequency dependence. Using the estimated frequency-dependent bulk conductivities, E4D simulated the real and complex electrical potential signals for selected frequencies for SIP. These frequency-dependent bulk conductivities contain information that is relevant to geochemical changes in the system. This study demonstrated that the PFLOTRAN-SIP framework is able to detect the presence of a tracer in the subsurface. SIP offers a significant benefit over ERT in the form of greater information content. It provided multiple datasets at different frequencies that better constrained the tracer distribution in the subsurface. Consequently, this framework allows for practitioners of environmental hydrogeophysics and biogeophysics to monitor the subsurface with improved resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

DuraMAT Technology Scouting Report: Assessing Module Reliability Risks Associated with Projected Technological Changes

Maintaining the reliability of photovoltaic (PV) modules in the face of rapidly changing technology is critical to maximizing solar energy's contribution to global decarbonization. Our presentation describes expected changes in PV technology and their impacts on performance and reliability. We leverage PV market reports, interviews with PV researchers and other industry stakeholders, and peer-reviewed literature to narrow the multitude of possible changes into a manageable set of 11 impactful trends likely to be incorporated in near-term crystalline-silicon module designs. We group the trends into four categories (module architecture, interconnect technologies, bifacial modules, and cell technology) and explore the drivers behind the changes, their interactions, and associated reliability risks and benefits. Our analysis identifies specific areas that would benefit from accelerating the PV reliability learning cycle, to assess emerging module products and designs more accurately. We recommend that researchers continue tracking module technologies and their reliability implications so efforts can be focused on the most impactful trends. As the rapid technological turnover continues, it is also critical to incorporate fundamental knowledge into models that can predict module reliability. Predictive capabilities complete the PV reliability learning cycle-reducing the time required to assess new designs and mitigating the risks associated with large-scale deployment of new products.

bifacial↗