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DOE OSTI2024

A Framework for Identifying Building Energy Models of Localized Utility Service Areas Using Smart Meter Data

Bottom-up load modeling of buildings offers a versatile approach to simulating baseline demand and scenarios of future technology evolution and adoption at the individual building level. This capability is essential to understanding how future load shapes may change with the adoption of electric equipment and vehicles, particularly as it relates to grid planning and infrastructure investments. Traditionally, grid planning techniques have used historical load data to predict future load and infrastructure needs. However, with the anticipated rise in adoption of electrification technologies such as heat pumps and electric vehicles, historical data become less reliable predictors of the future. By employing ResStock, a high-fidelity building stock modeling tool, we can fine-tune electrification scenarios and aggregate models to represent varying geographic resolutions of the grid system, while considering the underlying features of homes. This may enable a more accurate and responsive approach to anticipate and plan for the evolving landscape of energy demands. We present a new framework that leverages building stock energy modeling to identify building models that align with the load shapes and housing attributes of buildings with AMI data. This approach applies two model layers: (1) a classification step that identifies the presence of air conditioning, electric heating, and electric water heating, and (2) an optimization routine that identifies building energy models aligning with load profile data from advanced metering infrastructure meters. This report demonstrates one approach to deploying this framework, and presents results for three test cases that use both modeled and AMI data to assess performance. For a test case using AMI data in Fort Collins, Colorado, we observed a median monthly electricity load CV-RMSE of 16.6%, and a top ten daily heating and cooling median absolute percent error of 7.7% and 8.3%, respectively. For each AMI meter, we identify a set of potential energy models so that downstream use-cases can account for uncertainty driven by variability of baseline technologies and occupant behavior, which impact the response to electrification and energy efficiency scenarios. Our results indicate that ResStock has potential as a scalable solution for modeling residential energy demand at local grid resolutions. Its performance depends on location-specific factors, underlying building characteristics, and the level of aggregation, offering a path towards more precise and adaptive distribution grid planning for the evolving energy landscape.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2014

Draft of M2 Report on Integration of the Hybrid Hydride Model into INL's MBM Framework for Review

This report documents the development, demonstration and validation of a mesoscale, microstructural evolution model for simulation of zirconium hydride {delta}-ZrH{sub 1.5} precipitation in the cladding of used nuclear fuels that may occur during long-term dry storage. While the Zr-based claddings are manufactured free of any hydrogen, they absorb hydrogen during service, in the reactor by a process commonly termed ‘hydrogen pick-up’. The precipitation and growth of zirconium hydrides during dry storage is one of the most likely fuel rod integrity failure mechanisms either by embrittlement or delayed hydride cracking of the cladding. While the phenomenon is well documented and identified as a potential key failure mechanism during long-term dry storage (NUREG/CR-7116), the ability to actually predict the formation of hydrides is poor. The model being documented in this work is a computational capability for the prediction of hydride formation in different claddings of used nuclear fuels. This work supports the Used Fuel Disposition Research and Development Campaign in assessing the structural engineering performance of the cladding during and after long-term dry storage. This document demonstrates a basic hydride precipitation model that is built on a recently developed hybrid Potts-phase field model that combines elements of Potts-Monte Carlo and the phase-field models. The model capabilities are demonstrated along with the incorporation of the starting microstructure, thermodynamics of the Zr-H system and the hydride formation mechanism.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Beam Energy Dependence of the Linear and Mode-Coupled Flow Harmonics Using the a Multi-Phase Transport Model

In the framework of the A Multi-Phase Transport (AMPT) model, the multi-particle azimuthal cumulant method is used to calculate the linear and mode-coupled contributions to the quadrangular flow harmonic (v4) and the mode-coupled response coefficient as functions of centrality in Au+Au collisions at sNN = 200, 39, 27 and 19.6 GeV. This study indicates that the linear and mode-coupled contributions to v4 are sensitive to beam energy change. Nevertheless, the correlations between different-order flow symmetry planes and the mode-coupled response coefficients show weak beam energy dependence. In addition, the presented results suggest that the experimental measurements that span a broad range of beam energies can be an additional constraint for the theoretical model calculations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Two–Dimensional Idealized Hadley Circulation Simulation for Global High Resolution Model Development

A new framework for the development of global high resolution models using a vertical- meridional, two-dimensional pole-to-pole domain is proposed. Compared with the three-dimensional global model, the two-dimensional framework can simulate cloud-scale convection at significantly reduced computational cost, data volume, and turn-around time, and accelerate the development phase. Although idealized, it allows for simulation of various clouds and scale interactions under a wide range of environmental conditions, even though zonal waves such as mid latitude storms cannot be simulated. Physics schemes can be tested and assessed over a full array of simultaneously occurring cloud regimes. The framework can serve as an intermediate step between a one-dimensional simulation and a full three-dimensional global model. Using this framework, we analyze the resolution dependencies of simulated clouds and the Hadley circulation in a range of global high resolution models by performing multiple 1000-day simulations; for some resolutions tested, for example, 2 km horizontal resolution, three-dimensional simulation is not feasible at the present time. Analysis shows that both horizontal and vertical resolution determine the properties of the Hadley circulation and clouds, and that the differences among the simulated Hadley circulations are understood as differences in scale interactions influenced by resolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

A scalable framework for the global offline community land model ensemble simulation

Current earth system models have a large range of uncertainty, owing to differences in the simulation of feedbacks and insufficient information to constrain model parameters. Parameter disturbance experiment provides a straightforward method to quantify the variation (uncertainty) outputs caused by model inputs. Owing to the software complexity and computational intensity of earth system models, a large-scale simulation framework is needed to support ensemble simulation required by parameter disturbance experiment. This paper presents a parallel framework for the community land model ensemble simulation. After a software structure review of the community land model simulation, a single factor parameter disturbance experiment of a reference computational experiment design is used to demonstrate the software design principles, computational characteristics of individual application, parallel ensemble simulation implementation, as well as the weak scalability of this simulation framework on a high-end computer. Lastly, the paper discusses some preliminary diagnostic analysis results of the single factor parameter disturbance experiments. The framework design considerations and implementation details described in this paper can be beneficial to many other research programmes involving large scale, legacy modelling system.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Kinetic Plasma Simulation in the MOOSE Framework: Verification of Electrostatic Particle In Cell Capabilities

In magnetic confinement nuclear fusion reactors, the interaction between the plasma edge and plasma facing components is extremely important. At the plasma edge, a kinetic representation such as particle-in-cell (rather than a fluid representation) is required to accurately capture the plasma behavior. General purpose particle-in-cell plasma simulation capabilities have been developed in the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework. This new capability is a part of the development of a new MOOSE-based framework for modeling plasma facing components, the Fusion ENergy Integrated multiphys-X (FENIX) framework. In this work, the verification of foundational particle-in-cell capabilities in FENIX is presented. This new plasma simulation capability has three main components: moving particles in discrete steps on the finite element mesh, mapping charge density from the particle's location to the finite element mesh, and solving for the electrostatic potential based on the charge density mapped from particles to the mesh. In this paper, simple verification problems demonstrating each of these new capabilities are presented, and future work includes electromagnetic capabilities and Monte Carlo collisions with neutral gas particles.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

A crystal-plasticity-informed Gaussian Process Regression model to capture anisotropy in single crystal shape memory alloys

This work presents a machine learning (ML) framework that model the anisotropic actuation responses in a shape memory alloy. A Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) based ML model is trained on a set of different crystal orientations subjected to different actuation conditions. The training employed thermo-mechanical responses from a crystal-plasticity model that captures phase-transformation, stress-induced plasticity, and transformation-induced plasticity. Further, on training the GPR-ML model at fixed stress level for different orientations, it captured the thermo-mechanical responses accounting for the anisotropy, and predicted responses for new orientations with good accuracy. The GPR-ML model is able to capture the transformation temperature variations even when trained using multiple stress levels, and the transformation strain showed significant deviations. The developed GPR-ML model gave reasonable predictions for an unexplored sample set of orientations and loading conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Modeling stochastic fluctuations in relativistic kinetic theory

Using the information current, we develop a Lorentz-covariant framework for modeling equilibrium fluctuations in relativistic kinetic theory in the grand-canonical ensemble. The resulting stochastic theory is proven to be causal and covariantly stable, and its predictions do not depend on the choice of spacetime foliation used to define the grand-canonical probabilities. As expected, in a box containing N > 5 particles, Boltzmann’s molecular chaos postulate is broken with (almost exact) probability N -1/2 , leading to a breakdown of the Boltzmann equation in small systems. Here, we also verify that, in ultrarelativistic gases, transient hydrodynamics already accounts for at least 80% of the equilibrium fluctuations of the stress-energy tensor at a given time. Finally, we compute the correlators at nonequal times for two selected collision kernels: that of a chemically active diluted solution, and that of ultrarelativistic scalar particles self-interacting via a quartic potential. For the former, we compute the density-density correlators analytically in real space, and dehydrodynamization of the stochastic theory is proven to occur whenever the mean free path diverges at high energy.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Chemical Reactivity Through Adaptive Quantum Mechanics/Many-Body Representations: Theoretical Development, Software Implementation, and Applications (Final Report)

The main objective of this research project was the development and application of a new theoretical/computational framework to model chemical transformations and electronic excitations in fluid mixtures across different phases. Our theoretical/computational framework combines our data-driven many-body (DD-MB) potentials representing molecular interactions with adaptive schemes for modeling chemical reactions in solution. The combination of these two components resulted in an adaptive quantum mechanics/many-body (adQM/MB) method that largely suppresses discontinuities between QM and MM regions, which affect existing QM/MM methods, and thus provides an accurate representation of both quantum mechanical and environmental effects through a rigorous description of mutual polarization between QM and MM regions. The implementation of our DD-MB potentials and adQM/MB method in popular software enabled computer simulations of solvation phenomena, reactive processes, and electronic excitations in fluid mixtures with chemical and spectroscopic accuracy, representing a major step toward realistic computer simulations of a wide range of molecular systems relevant to the DOE mission.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2019

IMPLEMENTATION OF DETAILED CHEMISTRY MECHANISMS IN ENGINE SIMULATIONS

The stiffness of large chemistry mechanisms has been proved to be a major hurdle toward predictive engine simulations. As a result, detailed chemistry mechanisms with a few thousand species need to be reduced based on target conditions so that they can be accommodated within the available computational resources. The computational cost of simulations typically increases super-linearly with the number of species and reactions. This work aims to bring detailed chemistry mechanisms within the realm of engine simulations by coupling the framework of unsteady flamelets and fast chemistry solvers. A previously developed tabulated flamelet model (TFM) framework for nonpremixed combustion was used in this study. The flamelet solver consists of the traditional operator-splitting scheme with variable coefficient ordinary differential equation (ODE) solver (VODE) and a numerical Jacobian for solving the chemistry. In order to use detailed mechanisms with thousands of species, a new framework with the Livermore solver for ODEs in sparse form (LSODES) chemistry solver and an analytical Jacobian was implemented in this work. Results from 1D simulations show that with the new framework, the computational cost is linearly proportional to the number of species in a given chemistry mechanism. As a result, the new framework is 2-3 orders of magnitude faster than the conventional variable coefficient ODE (VODE) solver for large chemistry mechanisms. This new framework was used to generate unsteady flamelet libraries for ndodecane using a detailed chemistry mechanism with 2755 species and 11,173 reactions. The engine combustion network (ECN) spray A experiments, which consist of an igniting n-dodecane spray in turbulent, high-pressure engine conditions are simulated using large eddy simulations (LES) coupled with detailed mechanisms. A grid with 0.06 mm minimum cell size and 22 x 10(6) peak cell count was implemented. The framework is validated across a range of ambient temperatures against ignition delay and liftoff lengths (LOLs). Qualitative results from the simulations were compared against experimental OH and CH2O planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) data. The models are able to capture the spatial and temporal trends in species compared to those observed in the experiments. Quantitative and qualitative comparisons between the predictions of the reduced and detailed mechanisms are presented in detail. The main goal of this study is to demonstrate that detailed reaction mechanisms (similar to 1000 species) can now be used in engine simulations with a linear increase in computation cost with number of species during the tabulation process and a small increase in the 3D simulation cost.

Kundu, Prithwish↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Multivariate Space‐Time Dynamic Model for Characterizing the Atmospheric Impacts Following the Mt. Pinatubo Eruption

The June 1991 Mt. Pinatubo eruption resulted in a massive increase of sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere, absorbing radiation and leading to global changes in surface and stratospheric temperatures. A volcanic eruption of this magnitude serves as a natural analog for stratospheric aerosol injection, a proposed solar radiation modification method to combat a warming climate. The impacts of such an event are multifaceted and region-specific. Our goal is to characterize the multivariate and dynamic nature of the atmospheric impacts following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. We developed a multivariate space-time dynamic linear model to understand the full extent of the spatially- and temporally-varying impacts. Specifically, spatial variation is modeled using a flexible set of basis functions for which the basis coefficients are allowed to vary in time through a vector autoregressive (VAR) structure. This novel model is cast in a Dynamic Linear Model (DLM) framework and estimated via a customized MCMC approach. We demonstrate how the model quantifies the relationships between key atmospheric parameters prior to and following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption with reanalysis data from MERRA-2 and highlight when such a model is advantageous over univariate models.

Dynamic Linear Model↗
DOE OSTI2018

Two-Scale 13 C Metabolic Flux Analysis for Metabolic Engineering

Accelerating the Design-Build-Test-Learn (DBTL) cycle in synthetic biology is critical to achieving rapid and facile bioengineering of organisms for the production of, e.g., biofuels and other chemicals. The Learn phase involves using data obtained from the Test phase to inform the next Design phase. As part of the Learn phase, mathematical models of metabolic fluxes give a mechanistic level of comprehension to cellular metabolism, isolating the principle drivers of metabolic behavior from the peripheral ones, and directing future experimental designs and engineering methodologies. Furthermore, the measurement of intracellular metabolic fluxes is specifically noteworthy as providing a rapid and easy-to-understand picture of how carbon and energy flow throughout the cell. Here, we present a detailed guide to performing metabolic flux analysis in the Learn phase of the DBTL cycle, where we show how one can take the isotope labeling data from a 13 C labeling experiment and immediately turn it into a determination of cellular fluxes that points in the direction of genetic engineering strategies that will advance the metabolic engineering process.For our modeling purposes we use the Joint BioEnergy Institute (JBEI) Quantitative Metabolic Modeling (jQMM) library, which provides an open-source, python-based framework for modeling internal metabolic fluxes and making actionable predictions on how to modify cellular metabolism for specific bioengineering goals. It presents a complete toolbox for performing different types of flux analysis such as Flux Balance Analysis, 13 C Metabolic Flux Analysis, and it introduces the capability to use 13 C labeling experimental data to constrain comprehensive genome-scale models through a technique called two-scale 13 C Metabolic Flux Analysis (2S- 13 C MFA) [1]. In addition to several other capabilities, the jQMM is also able to predict the effects of knockouts using the MoMA and ROOM methodologies. The use of the jQMM library is illustrated through a step-by-step demonstration, which is also contained in a digital Jupyter Notebook format that enhances reproducibility and provides the capability to be adopted to the user's specific needs. As an open-source software project, users can modify and extend the code base and make improvements at will, providing a base for future modeling efforts.

13C Metabolic flux analysis↗
DOE OSTI2016

Integrated Modeling Approach for Optimal Management of Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus

We report that water, energy and food (WEF) are inextricably interrelated. Effective planning and management of limited WEF resources to meet current and future socioeconomic demands for sustainable development is challenging. WEF production/delivery may also produce environmental impacts; as a result, green-house-gas emission control will impact WEF nexus management as well. Nexus management for WEF security necessitates integrated tools for predictive analysis that are capable of identifying the tradeoffs among various sectors, generating cost-effective planning and management strategies and policies. To address these needs, we have developed an integrated model analysis framework and tool called WEFO. WEFO provides a multi-period socioeconomic model for predicting how to satisfy WEF demands based on model inputs representing productions costs, socioeconomic demands, and environmental controls. WEFO is applied to quantitatively analyze the interrelationships and trade-offs among system components including energy supply, electricity generation, water supply-demand, food production as well as mitigation of environmental impacts. WEFO is demonstrated to solve a hypothetical nexus management problem consistent with real-world management scenarios. Model parameters are analyzed using global sensitivity analysis and their effects on total system cost are quantified. Lastly, the obtained results demonstrate how these types of analyses can be helpful for decision-makers and stakeholders to make cost-effective decisions for optimal WEF management.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Theoretical foundations of waste factor and waste figure with applications to fixed wireless access and relay systems

The growing energy demands of next-generation wireless systems call for unified, system-level metrics to evaluate and optimize energy efficiency. This paper advances the concept of the Waste Factor (W), or Waste Figure (WF) in decibel scale, as a general framework for modeling power loss across cascaded communication components. By integrating W into the Consumption Factor (CF)–the ratio of data rate to consumed power–we reveal how component inefficiencies influence the minimum achievable energy per bit. Closed-form expressions are derived for energy-per-bit consumption in both direct and relay-assisted links, along with a decision rule for selecting the more energy-efficient path. While not explicitly modeled, Reflective Intelligent Surfaces (RIS) are shown to fit naturally within this framework. The analysis is further applied to a Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) scenario, where asymmetries in traffic direction and hardware inefficiencies are jointly considered, demonstrating the utility of the Waste Factor in guiding energy-aware system design.

Sevim, Nurullah [Texas A&M University, College Sta↗
DOE OSTI2013

On the multistream approach of relativistic Weibel instability. II. Bernstein-Greene-Kruskal-type waves in magnetic trapping

The stationary state with magnetically trapped particles is investigated at the saturation of the relativistic Weibel instability, within the “multiring” model in a Hamiltonian framework. The multistream model and its multiring extension have been developed in Paper I, under the assumption that the generalized canonical momentum is conserved in the perpendicular direction. One dimensional relativistic Bernstein-Greene-Kruskal waves with deeply trapped particles are addressed using similar mathematical formalism developed by Lontano et al.[Phys. Plasmas 9, 2562 (2002); Phys. Plasmas 10, 639 (2003)] using several streams and in the presence of both electrostatic and magnetic trapping mechanisms.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2014

Chern-Simons potential in models of Casimir effect

In the model constructed in the framework of the proposed by Symanzik approach for description of interaction of a macroscopic material body with quantum fields the interaction of thin material film with photon field is presented by the Chern-Simons potential. All the effects of this interaction with can by described in the framework of one model. In this way, the Casimir energy for two parallel infinite planes and sphere, the Casimir-Polder potential, and characteristics of other physical phenomena have been calculated for non-ideal conducting material of film. The specific of regularization and renormalization procedures used by calculations and the physical meaning of obtained results are discussed. In the limit of infinite coupling constant one obtains the known results of models with boundary conditions. By finite value of coupling constants the model predicts unusual effects which could be important for micro-mechanics, nano-photonics, constructing of new materials.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2026

An algebraic convolution formulation for multiple-scattering correction in small-angle neutron scattering

Multiple scattering in small-angle neutron scattering (SANS) redistributes spectral weight and distorts structural interpretation, particularly for thick or strongly scattering samples. We develop a finite-dimensional spectral desmearing framework that corrects multiple scattering without resorting to integral transforms or model-dependent extrapolation. The primary intensity is expanded in an orthonormal basis adapted to the isotropic transverse-momentum measure, under which convolution reduces to a recursive tensor contraction, allowing the Poisson-weighted multiple-scattering series to be evaluated directly in a finite-dimensional basis representation. This formulation yields a stable forward–inverse mapping between apparent and primary spectra. Numerical tests demonstrate convergence under repeated convolution and accurate recovery of the single-scattering intensity. Application to SANS measurements collected at multiple neutron facilities, including the Spallation Neutron Source, the High Flux Isotope Reactor, and the Institut Laue-Langevin, shows the quantitative reconstruction of the underlying primary spectrum across a wide range of transmission conditions, including strongly attenuating samples. Here, the method provides a stable, model-agnostic framework for multiple-scattering correction in SANS and enables consistent structural interpretation across instruments and scattering regimes.

Tung, Chi-Huan [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Building heights and urban canopy parameters for urban modeling

GLObal Building heights for Urban Studies (UT-GLOBUS) is a random forest model based framework that provides a level-of-detail-1 (LoD-1) building height dataset. The primary objective of UT-GLOBUS is not to precisely predict the height and footprint of individual buildings, but rather to offer a functional framework for generating building level information using open-source datasets for modeling applications. Specifically, UT-GLOBUS is tailored to meet the requirements of deriving urban canopy parameters (UCPs) for the multi-layer model within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and building heights for the SOLWEIG and SUEWS model. Building-level data is accessible in vector file format (GeoPackage: .gpkg), which can be converted into raster file format (geoTIFF). The vector files employ the Universal Transverse Mercator (UTM) projection. The vector files are compatible with GIS platforms like QGIS and ArcGIS, and can be imported for analysis using programming languages such as Python. We are also providing UCPs required by the multi-layer urban model in the urban WRF in binary file format. Additionally, we provide the urban fractions calculated using ESA world cover dataset (https://esa-worldcover.org/en) for WRF model in binary file format. These binary files can be directly incorporated into the WRF pre-processing system (WPS).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗