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At least 1,747 records · Page 97
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Luminous Efficiency of Hypervelocity Meteoroid Impacts on the Moon Derived from the 2006 Geminids, 2007 Lyrids, and 2008 Taurids

Since early 2006 the Meteoroid Environment Office at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center has been consistently monitoring the Moon for impact flashes produced by meteoroids striking the lunar surface. During this time, several meteor showers have produced multiple impact flashes on the Moon. The 2006 Geminids, 2007 Lyrids, and 2008 Taurids were observed with average rates of 5.5, 1.2, and 1.5 meteors/hr, respectively, for a total of 12 Geminid, 11 Lyrid, and 12 Taurid lunar impacts. These showers produced a sufficient, albeit small sample of impact flashes with which to perform a luminous efficiency analysis similar to that outlined in Bellot Rubio et al. for the 1999 Leonids. An analysis of the Geminid, Lyrid, and Taurid lunar impacts is carried out herein in order to determine the luminous efficiency in the 400-900 nm wavelength range for each shower. Using the luminous efficiency, the kinetic energies and masses of these lunar impactors can be calculated.

Moser, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Luminous Efficiency of Hypervelocity Meteoroid Impacts on the Moon Derived from the 2006 Geminids, 2007 Lyrids, and 2008 Taurids

Since early 2006 the Meteoroid Environment Office (MEO) at NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center has been consistently monitoring the Moon for impact flashes produced by meteoroids striking the lunar surface. During this time, several meteor showers have produced multiple impact flashes on the Moon. The 2006 Geminids, 2007 Lyrids, and 2008 Taurids were observed with average rates of 5.5, 1.2, and 1.5 meteors/hr, respectively, for a total of 12 Geminid, 12 Lyrid, and 12 Taurid lunar impacts. These showers produced a sufficient, albeit small sample of impact flashes with which to perform a luminous efficiency analysis similar to that outlined in Bellot Rubio et al. (2000) for the 1999 Leonids. An analysis of the Geminid, Lyrid, and Taurid lunar impacts is carried out herein in order to determine the luminous efficiency in the 400-800 nm wavelength range for each shower. Using the luminous efficiency, the kinetic energies and masses of these lunar impactors can be calculated.

Moser, D. E.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Luminous Efficiency of Hypervelocity Meteoroid Impacts on the Moon Derived from the 2006 Geminids, 2007 Lyrids, and 2008 Taurids

Since early 2006, NASA s Marshall Space Flight Center has been routinely monitoring the Moon for impact flashes produced by meteoroids striking the lunar surface. During this time, several meteor showers have produced multiple impact flashes on the Moon. The 2006 Geminids, 2007 Lyrids, and 2008 Taurids were observed with average rates of 5.5, 1.2, and 1.5 meteors/hr, respectively, for a total of 12 Geminid, 12 Lyrid, and 12 Taurid lunar impacts. These showers produced a sufficient, albeit small sample of impact flashes with which to perform a luminous efficiency analysis similar to that outlined in Bellot Rubio et al. (2000a, b) for the 1999 Leonids. An analysis of the Geminid, Lyrid, and Taurid lunar impacts is carried out herein in order to determine the luminous efficiency in the 400-800 nm wavelength range for each shower. Using the luminous efficiency, the kinetic energies and masses of these lunar impactors can be calculated from the observed flash intensity.

Moser, D. E.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Water and Climate Impacts on Power System Operations: The Importance of Cooling Systems and Demand Response Measures

The U.S. electricity sector is highly dependent upon water resources; changes in water temperatures and water availability can affect operational costs and the reliability of power systems. Despite the importance of water for power system operations, the effects of changes in water characteristics on multiple generators in a system are generally not modeled. Moreover, demand response measures, which can change the magnitude and timing of loads and can have beneficial impacts on power system operations, have not yet been evaluated in the context of water-related power vulnerabilities. This effort provides a first comprehensive vulnerability and cost analysis of water-related impacts on a modeled power system and the potential for demand response measures to address vulnerability and cost concerns. This study uniquely combines outputs and inputs of a water and power plant system model, production cost, model, and relative capacity value model to look at variations in cooling systems, policy-related thermal curtailments, and demand response measures to characterize costs and vulnerability for a test system. Twenty-five scenarios over the course of one year are considered: a baseline scenario as well as a suite of scenarios to evaluate six cooling system combinations, the inclusion or exclusion of policy-related thermal curtailments, and the inclusion or exclusion of demand response measures. A water and power plant system model is utilized to identify changes in power plant efficiencies resulting from ambient conditions, a production cost model operating at an hourly scale is used to calculate generation technology dispatch and costs, and a relative capacity value model is used to evaluate expected loss of carrying capacity for the test system.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2023

CST: A Tool for Optimizing the Efficiency and Effectiveness of Static-Code Analysis Tools

Static Code Analysis (SCA) is a vital component of NASA IV&V’s mission assurance for safety-critical software as it reduces the likelihood of software-induced hazards impacting mission success. Static Code Analysis achieves this by identifying hazards that may not have been otherwise detectable by typical code reviews or other testing. Using SCA tools, however, can be intimidating due to steep learning curves, especially considering tool performance and defect coverage varies greatly. Because of this variation amongst SCA tools, understanding which tools support certain defects and which do not, as well as understanding how to run an analysis based on steps that are unique to each tool, can be difficult to both new and experienced analysts alike. To mitigate this, the SCAWG or the IV&V Static Code Analysis Working Group, created the SCA Checker Taxonomy and Starting Point Profiles. The Checker Selection Tool (CST) incorporates these two SCAWG products into an interactive tool which allows the user to: select organized categories of defects they would like the SCA tools to discover, select default checkers depending on their mission type (e.g. flight), and configure multiple SCA tools at once. C/C++, Java, and Python defect checkers from four common SCA tools were utilized in this iteration of the CST. This iteration also includes the addition of training, SCA tool specific help, and taxonomy guide links, into its design to help users new to Static Code Analysis learn how to perform SCA more efficiently. The CST has been subject to beta testing by experienced static code analysts from the SCAWG to ensure a usable and accurate final product. The implications of the CST in the mission assurance of NASA safety-critical software are profound, as the CST can help identify and reduce false positives and false negatives, fundamentally improving overall SCA efficiency and accuracy.

static code analysis↗
DOE OSTI2014

Packaging waste recycling in Europe: Is the industry paying for it?

Highlights: • We study the recycling schemes of France, Germany, Portugal, Romania and the UK. • The costs and benefits of recycling are compared for France, Portugal and Romania. • The balance of costs and benefits depend on the perspective (strictly financial/economic). • Financial supports to local authorities ought to promote cost-efficiency. - Abstract: This paper describes and examines the schemes established in five EU countries for the recycling of packaging waste. The changes in packaging waste management were mainly implemented since the Directive 94/62/EC on packaging and packaging waste entered into force. The analysis of the five systems allowed the authors to identify very different approaches to cope with the same problem: meet the recovery and recycling targets imposed by EU law. Packaging waste is a responsibility of the industry. However, local governments are generally in charge of waste management, particularly in countries with Green Dot schemes or similar extended producer responsibility systems. This leads to the need of establishing a system of financial transfers between the industry and the local governments (particularly regarding the extra costs involved with selective collection and sorting). Using the same methodological approach, the authors also compare the costs and benefits of recycling from the perspective of local public authorities for France, Portugal and Romania. Since the purpose of the current paper is to take note of who is paying for the incremental costs of recycling and whether the industry (i.e. the consumer) is paying for the net financial costs of packaging waste management, environmental impacts are not included in the analysis. The work carried out in this paper highlights some aspects that are prone to be improved and raises several questions that will require further research. In the three countries analyzed more closely in this paper the industry is not paying the net financial cost of packaging waste management. In fact, if the savings attained by diverting packaging waste from other treatment (e.g. landfilling) and the public subsidies to the investment on the “recycling system” are not considered, it seems that the industry should increase the financial support to local authorities (by 125% in France, 50% in Portugal and 170% in Romania). However, in France and Portugal the industry is paying local authorities more than just the incremental costs of recycling (full costs of selective collection and sorting minus the avoided costs). To provide a more definitive judgment on the fairness of the systems it will be necessary to assess the cost efficiency of waste management operators (and judge whether operators are claiming costs or eliciting “prices”)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2001

Identification of High Performance, Low Environmental Impact Materials and Processes Using Systematic Substitution (SyS)

Process analysis can identify opportunities for efficiency improvement including cost reduction, increased safety, improved quality, and decreased environmental impact. A thorough, systematic approach to materials and process selection is valuable in any analysis. New operations and facilities design offer the best opportunities for proactive cost reduction and environmental improvement, but existing operations and facilities can also benefit greatly. Materials and processes that have been used for many years may be sources of excessive resource use, waste generation, pollution, and cost burden that should be replaced. Operational and purchasing personnel may not recognize some materials and processes as problems. Reasons for materials or process replacement may include quality and efficiency improvements, excessive resource use and waste generation, materials and operational costs, safety (flammability or toxicity), pollution prevention, compatibility with new processes or materials, and new or anticipated regulations.

Dhooge, P. M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Equity implications of net-zero emissions: A multi-model analysis of energy expenditures across income classes under economy-wide deep decarbonization policies

With companies, states, and countries targeting net-zero emissions around midcentury, there are questions about how these targets alter household welfare and finances, including distributional effects across income groups. This paper examines the distributional dimensions of technology transitions and net-zero policies with a focus on welfare impacts across household incomes. The analysis uses a model intercomparison with a range of energy-economy models using harmonized policy scenarios reaching economy-wide, net-zero CO 2 emissions across the United States in 2050. Here we employ a novel linking approach that connects output from detailed energy system models with survey microdata on energy expenditures across income classes to provide distributional analysis of net-zero policies. Although there are differences in model structure and input assumptions, we find broad agreement in qualitative trends in policy incidence and energy burdens across income groups. Models generally agree that direct energy expenditures for many households will likely decline over time with reference and net-zero policies. However, there is variation in the extent of changes relative to current levels, energy burdens relative to reference levels, and electricity expenditures. Policy design, primarily how climate policy revenues are used, has first-order impacts on distributional outcomes. Net-zero policy costs, in both absolute and relative terms, are unevenly distributed across households, and relative increases in energy expenditures are higher for lowest-income households. However, we also find that recycled revenues from climate policies have countervailing effects when rebated on a per-capita basis, offsetting higher energy burdens and potentially even leading to net progressive outcomes. Model results also show carbon Laffer curves, where revenues from net-zero policies increase but then decline with higher stringencies, which can diminish the progressive effects of climate policies. We also illustrate how using annual income deciles for distributional analysis instead of expenditure deciles can overstate the progressivity of emissions policies by overweighting revenue impacts on the lowest-income deciles.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

An Assessment of Potential Dose Impacts from External Contamination on Naval Reactors Facility Waste Canisters (Special Analysis)

This Special Analysis (SA) was performed to address a request by Naval Reactors Facility (NRF) Waste Programs for a permanent exception to limits of removable surface contamination on the exterior of waste canisters shipped to the Remote-Handled Low-Level Waste (RHLLW) Disposal Facility as specified in the waste acceptance criteria (WAC) (PLN-5446). The purpose of this SA is to determine if the NRF-requested levels for removable surface contamination on the exterior of all NRF waste canisters is within the bounds of the current performance assessment (PA). This was done by calculating the groundwater all-pathways dose contribution from surface contamination on the exterior of NRF canisters for the following cases: (1) the exteriors of all NRF waste canisters are contaminated to the 10 CFR 835 Appendix D allowable limits in the current WAC, and (2) the exteriors of all NRF waste canisters are contaminated to the limits requested by NRF Waste Programs. Dose impacts for each case were compared to each other and to the all pathways dose for the PA base case. Dose impacts were also compared to the all pathways dose limit specified in DOE O 435.1. A simple assessment of the potential impacts of the increase in surface contamination using the NRF-requested limits on the biotic, air, and inadvertent intruder pathways was also performed. Based on the results of this SA, the increase in canister exterior contamination limits requested by NRF are well within the bounds of the current PA and will not result in a violation of performance objectives. The results also show the increased limits do not reflect or necessitate a fundamental change to the PA conceptual model, nor a change to the way exterior contamination is not included in PA dose calculations. Therefore, it is recommended the NRF request for an exception to the current limits for external surface contamination be accepted and the revised limits for NRF-generated waste canisters be added to the WAC. The monitoring plan will also be revised to identify external canister contamination as a potential mobile source term that may be detected by monitoring earlier than potential releases from waste. The PA, composite analysis (CA), closure plan, and PA/CA maintenance plan do not require revision. Recommendations are also included for inclusion of NRF procedures used to limit water pool radionuclide variability (and thus canister surface contamination variability) to the waste generator certification process.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2023

Summary Analysis of Different Offshore Wind Capacity Density Drivers in Proposed U.S. Projects and Impacts on Progress Towards State and Federal Deployment Targets

Understanding the density of offshore wind development - or the "capacity density" - is important for state and federal offshore wind planning efforts and to track progress towards policy goals. NREL has traditionally assumed a capacity density of 3 megawatts per square kilometer (MW/km2) when estimating the U.S. project pipeline (Musial et al. 2022), but capacity densities for existing European offshore wind farms ranged from 2-19 MW/km2 (Borrmann et al. 2018). We track the expected capacity densities of the proposed U.S. projects in the East Coast and make an analysis by state and by developer to identify what are the capacity density norms in the industry and whether the state in which the development efforts are taking place has some impact on capacity density. We also analyze the effects of the area occupied by station keeping systems on capacity density for lease areas dedicated to floating projects and provide a list of main capacity density drivers. This summary analysis sets a baseline to study how different capacity density drivers could impact the progress towards state and federal deployment targets. Given the currently delineated Renewable Energy Areas in the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) and the basis from the summary analysis, we estimate the expected offshore wind deployment over time federally and by state and compare it to the state and federal deployment targets. The proposed analysis helps identify gaps and needs to meet state and federal targets, which provides sufficient information to propose strategic supply chain and policy planning with the objective of meeting deployment goals.

capacity density↗
NASA NTRS2017

Ar-Ar Thermochronlogy of Apollo 12 Impact-Melt Breccia 12033,638-1

We have undertaken an Ar-Ar thermochronology investigation as part of a coordinated multichronometer analysis of a single Apollo 12 impact- melt breccia to demonstrate the wide range of information that can be obtained for a single complex rock. This has implications for the age of formation, component makeup, and subsequent impact/shock and exposure history of the sample. This study also serves as a capabilities demonstration for the proposed MoonRise Mission [1]. The goal of this investigation is to elucidate the history of this sample through coordinated 40Ar*/39Ar, Sm-Nd, Rb-Sr and zircon 207Pb-206Pb ages along with geochemical and petrographic context on a relatively small (approximately 450 mg) sample. Here, we report preliminary results of the Ar-Ar thermochronology.

Crow, C. A.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Operational Benefits of Meeting California's Energy Storage Targets

In October 2013, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) finalized procurement targets and other requirements to its jurisdictional utilities for a minimum of 1,325 MW of 'viable and cost-effective' energy storage systems by 2020. The goal of this study is to explore several aspects of grid operations in California and the Western Interconnection resulting from meeting the CPUC storage targets. We perform this analysis using a set of databases and grid simulation tools developed and implemented by the CPUC, the California Independent System Operator (CAISO), and the California Energy Commission (CEC) for the CPUC's Long-term Procurement Plan (LTPP). The 2014 version of this database contains information about generators, storage, transmission, and electrical demand, for California in the year 2024 for both 33% and 40% renewable energy portfolios. We examine the value of various services provided by energy storage in these scenarios. Sensitivities were performed relating to the services energy storage can provide, the capacity and duration of storage devices, export limitations, and negative price floor variations. Results show that a storage portfolio, as outlined by the CPUC, can reduce curtailment and system-wide production costs for 33% and 40% renewable scenarios. A storage device that can participate in energy and ancillary service markets provides the grid with the greatest benefit; the mandated storage requirement of 1,325 MW was estimated to reduce the total cost of production by about 78 million per year in the 33% scenario and 144 million per year in the 40% scenario. Much of this value is derived from the avoided start and stop costs of thermal generators and provision of ancillary services. A device on the 2024 California grid and participating in only ancillary service markets can provide the system with over 90% of the value as the energy and ancillary service device. The analysis points to the challenge of new storage providing regulation reserve, as the added storage could provide about 75% of the regulation up requirement for all of California, which would likely greatly reduce regulation prices and potential revenue. The addition of storage in California decreases renewable curtailment, particularly in the 40% RPS case. Following previous analysis, storage has a mixed impact on emissions, generally reducing emissions, but also creating additional incentives for increased emissions from out-of-state coal generations. Overall, storage shows significant system cost savings, but analysis also points to additional challenges associated with full valuation of energy storage, including capturing the operational benefits calculated here, but also recovering additional benefits associated avoided generation, transmission, and distribution capacity, and avoided losses.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Influence of Local Water Vapor Analysis Uncertainty on Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclogenesis Using Hurricane Irma (2017) as a Testbed

Abstract Tropical cyclone formation is known to require abundant water vapor in the lower to middle troposphere within the incipient disturbance. In this study, we assess the impacts of local water vapor analysis uncertainty on the predictability of the formation of Hurricane Irma (2017). To this end, we reduce the magnitude of the incipient disturbance’s water vapor perturbations obtained from an ensemble-based data assimilation system that constrained moisture by assimilating all-sky infrared and microwave radiances. Five-day ensemble forecasts are initialized two days before genesis using each set of modified analysis perturbations. Growth of convective differences and intensity uncertainty are evaluated for each ensemble forecast. We observe that when initializing an ensemble forecast with only moisture uncertainty within the incipient disturbance, the resulting intensity uncertainty at every lead time exceeds half that of an ensemble containing initial perturbations to all variables throughout the domain. Although ensembles with different initial moisture uncertainty amplitudes reveal a similar pathway to genesis, uncertainty in genesis timing varies substantially across ensembles since moister members exhibit earlier spinup of the low-level vortex. These differences in genesis timing are traced back to the first 6–12 h of integration, when differences in the position and intensity of mesoscale convective systems across ensemble members develop more quickly with greater initial moisture uncertainty. In addition, the rapid growth of intensity uncertainty may be greatly modulated by the diurnal cycle. Ultimately, this study underscores the importance of targeting the incipient disturbance with high spatiotemporal water vapor observations for ingestion into data assimilation systems. Significance Statement Hurricanes form from clusters of thunderstorms that organize into a coherent system. One of the key ingredients for the formation process is an abundance of moisture. In this study, we test the sensitivity of hurricane formation to the initial moisture content in the vicinity of the cluster of thunderstorms that would become Hurricane Irma (2017). To do so, we initialize sets of forecasts each having a different variability of initial moisture content within the embryonic disturbance. Our results show that the predictability of hurricane formation is highly dependent on the uncertainty of the moisture content within the initial disturbance. Consequently, more high-quality observations of the moisture within the precursor disturbances to hurricanes are expected to improve forecasts of their formation.

Hartman, Christopher M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact-Identified Medical Capabilities with Largest Effect on Medical Risk for an Extended Duration Artemis Mission

Historically, identifying resources to include in a medical system has been based on heuristically guided clinical subject matter expert assessment. Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and tradespace analysis have the power to simplify and increase the fidelity of this traditional approach by providing initial risk estimates and system design solutions that fit within the specified constraints. This will be especially important as the increased mission complexity, distance from Earth, and duration of LDEMs is likely to drive an increase in mission medical risk. NASA’s Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces tool (IMPACT) is designed to do just that. IMPACT uses an evidence based medical database of conditions likely to affect LDEM outcomes and a PRA computational engine to estimate how medical conditions and included medical capabilities affect mission outcomes. We identified the 10 medical conditions with the largest effect on medical risks and determined what medical system capabilities affected risk reduction the greatest.

Anderson A↗
DOE OSTI2025

EVALUATION OF HRA METHODOLOGIES FOR APPLICATION IN SDP WORK

This study critically evaluates human reliability analysis (HRA) methodologies applicable to regulatory probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) model, with a particular focus on their role in supporting the significance determination process (SDP) in nuclear safety assessment. Firstly, three widely utilized HRA methods – IDHEAS-ECA, SPAR-H, and ASEP/THERP – were qualitatively and quantitatively assessed. Qualitative assessments were conducted using attributes from the NEA/CSNI/R(2015)1 report, while quantitative evaluations employed regression and correlation analyses to compare predicted human error probabilities (HEPs) against empirical data. Results reveal distinct strengths, for example, IDHEAS-ECA’s robust predictive accuracy and K-HRA’s alignment with operational practices. In addition, dependency analysis and recovery analysis were critically evaluated. For dependency analysis, the methods’ handling of inter-task dependencies and their impact on HEPs were examined, while recovery analysis highlighted strategies for mitigating failure events. Furthermore, strategies were proposed to evaluate performance-shaping factors under conditions of reduced human performance, such as stress, fatigue, or cognitive overload, addressing specific challenges faced in SDP evaluations. Human errors from KINS’s operational performance information system event reports were evaluated as a case study. This study identifies gaps and provides actionable insights to ensure their validity and applicability in SDP HRA applications. This paper is a part of research conducted by KINS, and it should be noted that this result does not represent the regulatory position of KINS.

99 - GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS2012

EnKF OSSE Experiments Assessing the Impact of HIRAD Wind Speed and HIWRAP Radial Velocity Data on Analysis of Hurricane Karl (2010)

Previous studies (e.g., Zhang et al. 2009, Weng et al. 2011) have shown that radial velocity data from airborne and ground-based radars can be assimilated into ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) systems to produce accurate analyses of tropical cyclone vortices, which can reduce forecast intensity error. Recently, wind speed data from SFMR technology has also been assimilated into the same types of systems and has been shown to improve the forecast intensity of mature tropical cyclones. Two instruments that measure these properties were present during the NASA Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) field experiment in 2010 which sampled Hurricane Karl, and will next be co-located on the same aircraft for the subsequent NASA HS3 experiment. The High Altitude Wind and Rain Profiling Radar (HIWRAP) is a conically scanning Doppler radar mounted upon NASAs Global Hawk unmanned aerial vehicle, and the usefulness of its radial velocity data for assimilation has not been previously examined. Since the radar scans from above with a fairly large fixed elevation angle, it observes a large component of the vertical wind, which could degrade EnKF analyses compared to analyses with data taken from lesser elevation angles. The NASA Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD) is a passive microwave radiometer similar to SFMR, and measures emissivity and retrieves hurricane surface wind speeds and rain rates over a much wider swath. Thus, this study examines the impact of assimilating simulated HIWRAP radial velocity data into an EnKF system, simulated HIRAD wind speed, and HIWRAP+HIRAD with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and compares the results to no data assimilation and also to the Truth from which the data was simulated for both instruments.

Albers, Cerese↗
NASA NTRS2008

Use of Probabilistic Engineering Methods in the Detailed Design and Development Phases of the NASA Ares Launch Vehicle

The United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is in the midst of a space exploration program called Constellation to send crew and cargo to the international Space Station, to the moon, and beyond. As part of the Constellation program, a new launch vehicle, Ares I, is being developed by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. Designing a launch vehicle with high reliability and increased safety requires a significant effort in understanding design variability and design uncertainty at the various levels of the design (system, element, subsystem, component, etc.) and throughout the various design phases (conceptual, preliminary design, etc.). In a previous paper [1] we discussed a probabilistic functional failure analysis approach intended mainly to support system requirements definition, system design, and element design during the early design phases. This paper provides an overview of the application of probabilistic engineering methods to support the detailed subsystem/component design and development as part of the "Design for Reliability and Safety" approach for the new Ares I Launch Vehicle. Specifically, the paper discusses probabilistic engineering design analysis cases that had major impact on the design and manufacturing of the Space Shuttle hardware. The cases represent important lessons learned from the Space Shuttle Program and clearly demonstrate the significance of probabilistic engineering analysis in better understanding design deficiencies and identifying potential design improvement for Ares I. The paper also discusses the probabilistic functional failure analysis approach applied during the early design phases of Ares I and the forward plans for probabilistic design analysis in the detailed design and development phases.

Fayssal, Safie↗
DOE OSTI2020

Potential Impacts of Assimilating All-sky Satellite Infrared Radiances on Convection-Permitting Analysis and Prediction of Tropical Convection

Geostationary infrared satellite observations are spatially dense [< 1/(20 km)2] and temporally frequent (< 1/hour). These suggest the possibility of using these observations to constrain sub-synoptic features over data sparse regions, such as tropical oceans. In this study, the potential impacts of assimilating water vapor channel brightness temperature (WV-BT) observations from the geostationary Meteorological Satellite 7 (Meteosat-7) on tropical convection analysis and prediction were systematically examined through a series of ensemble data assimilation experiments. WV-BT observations were assimilated hourly into convection-permitting ensembles using Penn State’s ensemble square root filter (EnSRF). Comparisons against independently observed Meteosat-7 window channel brightness temperature (Window-BT) show that the assimilation of WV-BT generally improved the intensities and locations of large-scale cloud patterns at spatial scales larger than 100 km. However, comparisons against independent soundings indicate that the EnSRF analysis produced a much stronger dry bias than the no data assimilation experiment. This strong dry bias is associated with the use of the simulated WV-BT from the prior mean during the EnSRF analysis step. A stochastic variant of the ensemble Kalman filter (NoMeanSF) is proposed. The NoMeanSF algorithm was able to assimilate the WV-BT without causing such a strong dry bias and the quality of the analyses’ horizontal cloud pattern is similar to EnSRF’s analyses. Finally, deterministic forecasts initiated from the NoMeanSF analyses possess better horizontal cloud patterns above 500 km than those of the EnSRF. These results suggest that it might be better to assimilate all-sky WV-BT through the NoMeanSF algorithm than EnSRF algorithm.

Chan, Man-Yau↗